Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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maverecon (Willem Buiter)


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294103

There are two reasons why the Fed, or any other central bank, should not act as a quasi-fiscal branch of the government, other than paying to the Treasury in taxes the profits it makes in the pursuit of its mandated macroeconomic stability objectives (maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294104

On September 25, 2009, the Commission of the European Communities produced a proposal for EU-level macro-prudential regulation and supervision, “Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Community macro prudential oversight of the financial system and establishing a European Systemic Risk Board”. It ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294105

The difference between data and information has been underlined emphatically by the release on Friday, October 23rd, of the UK GDP data for the third quarter of 2009.  Those who make a profession out of providing point forecasts ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294106

The euro has become a currency on steroids.  Its relentless nominal and real appreciation since the end of 2000 was briefly interrupted in the second half of 2008, but resumed with a vengeance during 2009.  The strength ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294102

Gold is unlike any other commodity.  It is costly to extract from the earth and to refine to a reasonable degree of purity.  It is costly to store.  It has no remaining uses as a producer good – equivalent or superior alternatives exist for all its industrial uses.  It may ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294101

July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294098

Dubai is not systemically significant.  If its troubles open our eyes to the likely imminence of the start of the final leg of the journey from household default through bank default to sovereign default, it may do some systemic good, by alerting fiscal policy makers to the vulnerability of their ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294099

The markets today were in a bit of a tizzy because the Dubai World Group, a holding company owned 100 percent by Dubai’s government, and Nakheel, a wholly owned subsidiary of Dubai World, imposed a debt restructuring and debt ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294100

What is so important about H.R. 1207: the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2009 aka the ‘Audit the Fed’ bill? This bill “To amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the ...


July 2, 2014, 10:05 pm, 1294097

In January 2010 I will, DV, start a new career as Chief Economist at Citi.  Unlike my predecessor in that position, Lewis Alexander, who was based in New York City, I shall be based in London.

As a consequence of this career move, Maverecon will be mothballed. That is the ...