Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Capital Gains and Games

"Washington, Wall Street and Everything in Between”


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295525

In case you missed it, the FY2014 omnibus appropriation, which will keep the government funded through the September 30, that is, through the end of the fiscal year, passed the Senate yesterday 72-26. It was adopted by the House the day before 359 to 67.

Here are the five quick reasons ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295526

Keep these things in mind if you're thinking about popping a cork or two to celebrate Congress passing an omnibus appropriation over the next week that will keep the federal government open for business through the rest of fiscal 2014:

An omnibus appropriation is indeed a step up from the continuing ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295527

This is the week when the-year-in-review stories start to be published.

I've always found those recaps to be largely irrelevant. If something significant happened this past year you likely already know or remember it without it being included on a top 10 list. And if you don't remember could it really ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295528

Don't believe what you may have heard elsewhere about the budget deal. Here's the truth.

Myth #1: This prevents another government shutdown.

The deal may make a shutdown less likely, but it absolutely doesn't prevent one from happening.

Shutdowns occur when there is a lapse in appropriations, that is, when an existing appropriation ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295524

It's a very (at least by Washington standards) snowy day in and around the beltway, so what better time than to demonstrate the extreme (bordering on the ultra) hypocrisy these days that exists when it comes to the federal budget. All of these seemingly unrelated events and announcements took place ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295523

Last week's news reports about congressional (actually...congressional Republican) action on the debt ceiling did what in the journalism business is called "burying the lead," that is, the stories typically didn't start with the most important part of what happened.

To a certain extent that wasn't surprising. As most reports said, the ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295520

I'll have a very exciting announcement about CG&G's next step before the Obama budget is released next Tuesday.

Watch this space.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295521

It had almost no chance of being enacted anyway, but the comprehensive tax reform proposal that will be revealed by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) this afternoon kills even the very limited possibility that something will happen on taxes this year.

It also very likely kills the chance ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295522

We used to say that a president's budget wasn't worth the paper on which it was printed. These days we say the same thing a bit differently: the president's budget isn't worth the memory needed to store it on your computer.

Either way you have to ask why the White House should even ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295519

After almost 8 years of being a standalone blog, Capital Gains and Games will now be published by Forbes.

I will continue to write CG&G and will do so with total independence. Forbes is interested in having the exact same type of analysis and information CG&G has always provided to its ...