Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Crisis Talk

"Policy ideas on the financial crisis”

The World Bank Group

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222036

The editors of the Financial Times appear to be concerned about bubbles. Three out of today's four op-eds are dedicated to the theme.

First, George Soros argues that the implosion of 2008 was an aggregation of a series of bubbles over the past decades, creating, in his words, a "super-bubble":

The crash of ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222037

"Good news for investors who like to lose all their money". LTCM 3.0 is here.

The dangers of ultra cheap money.

Is US Government debt actually "risk-free"?

Historically, a weak dollar has been deflationary.

Great charts from Calculated Risk ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222038

John Authers argues that the newsworthy economic story of late isn't dollar weakness; rather, it is the weak renminbi:

Many, if not most, hopes for global recovery are pinned on China buying goods from countries such as Brazil. Commodity prices, a key driver of equities and forex rates, also move in response ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222039

Bloggers at the IMF are looking at why Latin America fared better in this crisis than during previous episodes of financial duress. Their explanation: financial soundness mixed with enhanced credibility.

This improvement can be attributed to the fact that the region faced the crisis equipped with economic policy frameworks ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222035

There is a short but sweet article from All Roads Lead to China on Shanghai's 100 hardest jobs, which looks at the lives of China's poorer workers (who make up the bulk of the country's 1.3bn citizens). The editors conducted over 100 interviews with workers ranging from a ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222034

A few days ago I offered a series of bubble warnings from a German financial pundit, two academics, the man who broke the Bank of England, and the man who built Singapore. Today, we have a warning from the

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222031

"It's Alive, It's ALIVE, It's ALLLIIIIVVVE!"

The economics profession may become more mathematical, and friendlier to women.

Unemployment in the US is going to be a problem for a long time.

Commodity prices aren't really based on fundamentals like weather and geopolitics.

Lords of ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222032

The Economist has two interesting articles this week about capital flows in India. The Indian government is currently confronted with the a challenge of nurturing the growth of India's financial markets and multinationals, while mitigating the risks of excessive "hot money" flowing into the economy.

Proponents of capital ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222033

I recently wondered what the relationship between developed and emerging economies would look like during the recovery phase of the crisis:

Will a robust emerging market rebound boost OECD growth? Or, are we due to see a multi-speed global recovery?

John Authers points out that, thus far, the ...

February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222030

Dear Crisis Talk readers,

In an act of consolidation and collaboration, Crisis Talk is merging with the World Bank's Private Sector Development blog, where we will continue our conversation about emerging markets, finance, and the implications of the crisis.

We do not believe that the financial crisis is over and/or ...