Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Crisis Talk

"Policy ideas on the financial crisis”

The World Bank Group


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771790

There is an interesting article in Econbrowser by Willem Thorbecke of the Asian Development Bank, which looks at East Asian Production Networks, Global Imbalances, and Exchange Rate Coordination.

Thorbecke highlights the important relationship between exchange rates and production chains in East Asia, arguing for increased policy coordination between ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771791

One sign of crisis abatement is the downward slide of the US dollar. As the market rediscovers its appetite for risk, the dollar's appeal as a safe haven currency diminishes. Indeed, the dollar has become the de facto carry trade currency

The market has renewed its faith in emerging ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771792

European exports declined by 5.8 percent last month, the biggest drop since last January.

Understanding the European Central Bank means looking at its individual members.

The economic blogosphere really is a remarkable resource.

Bloggers at the IMF's ask, Did Islamic Banks in the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771793

The World Economic Forum has released its Financial Development Report 2009, which scores and ranks 55 of the world’s leading financial systems and capital markets according to their level of financial development. It analyzes the drivers of financial system development and economic growth in developed and developing countries to serve ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771789

Our friends at PBS have released a couple of interesting crisis-related television programs this week.


First, Charlie Rose has an excellent interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (type Sorkin's name into the Charlie Rose search window to access the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771788

Bloggers at the IMF are looking at why Latin America fared better in this crisis than during previous episodes of financial duress. Their explanation: financial soundness mixed with enhanced credibility.

This improvement can be attributed to the fact that the region faced the crisis equipped with economic policy frameworks ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771785

The editors of the Financial Times appear to be concerned about bubbles. Three out of today's four op-eds are dedicated to the theme.

First, George Soros argues that the implosion of 2008 was an aggregation of a series of bubbles over the past decades, creating, in his words, a "super-bubble":

The crash of ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771786

"Good news for investors who like to lose all their money". LTCM 3.0 is here.

The dangers of ultra cheap money.

Is US Government debt actually "risk-free"?

Historically, a weak dollar has been deflationary.

Great charts from Calculated Risk ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771787

John Authers argues that the newsworthy economic story of late isn't dollar weakness; rather, it is the weak renminbi:

Many, if not most, hopes for global recovery are pinned on China buying goods from countries such as Brazil. Commodity prices, a key driver of equities and forex rates, also move in response ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771784

There is a short but sweet article from All Roads Lead to China on Shanghai's 100 hardest jobs, which looks at the lives of China's poorer workers (who make up the bulk of the country's 1.3bn citizens). The editors conducted over 100 interviews with workers ranging from a ...