Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Art Diamond’s web log”

November 22, 2015, 5:33 am, 1580285

(p. A17) Technology disrupting the workforce is not a new phenomenon and it has never proved a lasting impediment for those eager to work. The invention of, say, the internal-combustion engine put buggy-whip makers and carriage assemblers out of business, but it created many more jobs in the ...

November 14, 2015, 5:33 am, 1576467

(p. A2) It's as close to an economic consensus as you can get: Deflation is bad for an economy, and central bankers should avoid it at all costs.

Then there's Switzerland, whose steady growth and rock-bottom unemployment is chipping away at that wisdom.

At a time of lively global ...

November 9, 2015, 5:33 am, 1572974

(p. A6) "The Brazilian model celebrated just a few years ago is turning into a slow-motion train wreck," said Mansueto Almeida, a prominent commentator on economic policy. "Our political leaders want to point fingers at China or some external villain, but they cannot escape the fact that this ...

October 29, 2015, 5:33 am, 1566019

(p. 6) Income inequality has surged as a political and economic issue, but the numbers don't show that inequality is rising from a global perspective. Yes, the problem has become more acute within most individual nations, yet income inequality for the world as a whole has been falling ...

October 25, 2015, 5:33 am, 1563475

(p. B3) . . . it is striking to find Mr. Bernanke . . . receptive to a . . . critique: that the bond-purchasing efforts, known as quantitative easing, increased economic inequality.

"Monetary policy is a blunt tool which certainly affects the distribution of income and wealth, ...

October 22, 2015, 5:33 am, 1561907

(p. B1) If you're feeling down about the world, the book, "Resource Revolution: How to Capture the Biggest Business Opportunity in a Century," is an antidote. Mr. Rogers and Mr. Heck outline how emerging advances -- among them 3-D printing, autonomous vehicles, modular construction systems and home ...

October 20, 2015, 5:33 am, 1560705

(p. B6) . . . for various reasons, people might choose or need to work from remote destinations, and logging in from the beach may be more relaxing than clocking into the office.

Adds Kenneth Matos, senior director of research at the Families and Work Institute: "Is the ...

October 17, 2015, 5:33 am, 1559631

That the affluent are more than twice as likely to work past retirement, may be a sign that the better paying jobs are also the more satisfying jobs.

(p. B9) But retirement isn't for everyone. Affluent individuals are more than twice as likely as ...

October 3, 2015, 5:33 am, 1552762

(p. A13) The city councils in Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles have already voted to increase their minimum wage to $15 an hour over several years. For large employers in Seattle, the first increase to $11 from $9.47 took effect in April. In San Francisco a hike ...

October 1, 2015, 5:33 am, 1551645

(p. A1) Some economists have reported that there is no longer any evidence that raising wages will cost jobs.

Unfortunately, that last claim is inaccurate. There are in fact many studies on each side of the issue. David Neumark of the University of California, Irvine and William Wascher of ...