Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Art Diamond’s web log”

February 14, 2016, 5:33 am, 1608480

(p. A1) INDIAN LAND, S.C. -- Twenty-five years ago, Ni Meijuan earned $19 a month working the spinning machines at a vast textile factory in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.

Now at the Keer Group's cotton mill in South Carolina, which opened in March, Ms. Ni is training ...

February 13, 2016, 5:33 am, 1608344

(p. 1) A hellbent quest for authenticity produced some indelible on-set moments for Alejandro G. Iñárritu as he directed "The Revenant," his two-and-a-half-hour opus of death, love and improvised surgery in the American West of the 1820s.

. . .

(p. 20) There were ...

January 27, 2016, 5:33 am, 1602436

(p. B4) Compose Inc. asks a lot of job applicants. Anyone who wants to be hired at the San Mateo, Calif., cloud-storage firm must write a short story about data, spend a day working on a mock project and complete an assignment.

There is one thing the company ...

January 26, 2016, 5:33 am, 1602001

(p. A11) Mr. Newport acknowledges the good intentions behind open offices: They are meant to encourage serendipity and teamwork. But he argues that burdening workers with perpetual distractions constitutes "an absurd attack on concentration" that creates "an environment that thwarts attempts to think seriously." Sure, there's collaboration--not ...

January 16, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1599500

(p. A19) ROME -- A balding government clerk in his late 30s has one true love: "il posto fisso," a job for life. He doesn't want to compete in the labor market; he has no urge to move on. He doesn't even want to earn more. Give ...

January 9, 2016, 5:33 am, 1597405

(p. A4) . . . it is quite a leap between acknowledging markets sometimes fail and arguing they are inherently flawed. Policy makers who work from the second assumption risk overreaching, by seeing market failure where there is none and ignoring their own behavioral biases, in either ...

December 25, 2015, 5:33 am, 1593971

(p. C1 & C6) It's startling just how swiftly change came to Hawaii after Capt. James Cook first sighted the island of Kauai in 1777: In little more than a century, Ms. Moore writes, "a closed and isolated culture, bound by superstition and religious ritual, with ...

December 24, 2015, 5:33 am, 1593767

(p. A25) Senator Marco Rubio sent fact-checkers aflutter when he said at the Republican presidential debate on Tuesday that philosophy majors would be better off going into welding. The value of a vocational degree, he argued, was greater than the payoff that comes with contemplating the cosmos.

"Welders ...

December 5, 2015, 5:33 am, 1586575

(p. A25) In 1882, soon after graduating from high school, the young John Davis secured a job at the Government Printing Office.

Over a long career, he rose through the ranks from laborer to a position in midlevel management. He supervised an office in which many ...

December 4, 2015, 5:33 am, 1586107

(p. A1) PRINCETON, N.J. -- Few figures loom as large in the life of an Ivy League university as Woodrow Wilson does at Princeton.

. . .

But until posters started appearing around campus in September, one aspect of Wilson's legacy was seldom discussed: ...