Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Art Diamond’s web log”

February 19, 2017, 5:33 am, 1721277

Louis Sokoloff's son Kenneth authored, or co-authored, important papers on how patents aided invention in the 1800s.

(p. A21) Dr. Louis Sokoloff, who pioneered the PET scan technique for measuring human brain function and diagnosing disorders, died on July 30 [2015] in ...

February 13, 2017, 5:33 am, 1719210

(p. A15) In "Progress," the Swedish author Johan Norberg deploys reams of data to show just how much life has improved--especially over the past few decades but over the past couple of centuries as well. Each chapter is devoted to documenting progress in a single category, including ...

February 12, 2017, 5:33 am, 1719034

(p. B4) Reflecting on my own brief experience as an invertebrate neuroscientist, I'd say that today's AI is at the jellyfish stage in the evolution of biological intelligence. Real brains--and genuine intelligence--are so far in the future as to be beyond any reasonable horizon of prediction.

Or, as chief ...

February 5, 2017, 5:33 am, 1716827

(p. C7) Mr. Evans claims that "master narratives" have fallen into disrepute, and he does not aspire to provide one. But he returns repeatedly to such themes as the growth of "public space" as Europe urbanized and communications improved. He likewise describes the "shifting contours of inequality" ...

January 31, 2017, 5:33 am, 1715168

(p. B1) CHICAGO -- A growing number of economists have found that many cities and states have considerable room to raise the minimum wage before employers meaningfully cut back on hiring.

But that conclusion may gloss over some significant responses to minimum-wage increases by individual employers, according to ...

January 25, 2017, 5:33 am, 1713353

(p. A11) I want to end this dramatic year writing of a man whose great and constructive work I discovered in 2016. He is the photojournalist Chris Arnade.

. . .

In his work you see an America that is battered but standing, a society ...

January 21, 2017, 5:33 am, 1712427

(p. C2) For nearly a decade, Amazon Web Services, the giant retailer's cloud computing division, has told prospective customers: Ditch your data center and trust us to run your applications, store your data and host your internal software development.

Yet Inc. itself doesn't fully run in the cloud.

Amazon ...

January 15, 2017, 5:33 am, 1710657

(p. A19) . . . , now ought to be the time that policy makers in Washington come together to tackle America's greatest economic problem: sclerotic growth. The recession ended more than seven years ago. Unemployment has returned to normal levels. Yet gross domestic product is rising ...

January 12, 2017, 5:33 am, 1709904

(p. C12) Effective public policy requires getting good ideas and putting them into practice. There is no better account of the world where economic ideas emerge as economic policy than Sebastian Mallaby's thoroughly researched (there are 1,625 endnotes) "The Man Who Knew," which takes up Alan Greenspan's long ...

January 11, 2017, 5:33 am, 1709545

(p. A17) President-elect Donald Trump's vow to "drain the swamp" in Washington could begin with the Agriculture Department. Federal aid to farmers is forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to soar to $19 billion in 2017. Farmers will receive twice as much of their income from handouts (25%) ...