Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

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The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Art Diamond’s web log”

July 26, 2017, 5:33 am, 1765957

Bill Gates, Jaron Lanier, Tim Berners-Lee, and others have suggested that a fairer system of information technology property rights would enable micropayments for intellectual content posted to blogs and Facebook. This also would allow upward mobility. The value of the intellectual contributions is currently being unfairly ...

July 20, 2017, 5:33 am, 1764398

(p. A15) Various estimates suggest that had U.S. productivity growth not slowed, GDP would be about $3 trillion higher than it is today.

. . .

Many economists contend that properly counting free digital services from companies like Google and Facebook would substantially boost productivity and ...

July 12, 2017, 5:33 am, 1762369

(p. B1) "There is this popular view that if you can automate one piece of the work, the rest of the job is toast," said Frank Levy, a labor economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "That's just not true, or only rarely the case."

An artificial intelligence ...

July 4, 2017, 5:33 am, 1760465

(p. A1) The average one-year CD hasn't paid more than 1% since 2009, according to

The drop in interest rates since the financial crisis cost U.S. savers almost $1 trillion in lost income from savings accounts, CDs and bonds from the start of 2008 through 2015, taking ...

June 30, 2017, 5:33 am, 1759734

(p. B4) Despite what may seem like obvious benefits, scholars can't make definitive statements about the health effects of working longer. The research is inherently difficult: Just as retirement can influence health, so can health influence retirement.

"I would say, in my experience, the research is mixed," said ...

June 29, 2017, 5:33 am, 1759436

I agree with Tyler that the U.S. is less dynamic than it once was. But I mainly blame our bad government policies, while he mainly blames our own bad attitudes.

(p. A15) Is the "land of opportunity," with dynamic labor markets and ...

June 24, 2017, 5:33 am, 1758056

(p. B5) Studies show that when employees have the choice to work remotely, "business is a whole lot better" for "people, the planet and profit," said Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics, a consulting firm that focuses on emerging workplace trends.

Gallup's State of the American Workplace report, ...

June 4, 2017, 5:33 am, 1752929

(p. A17) "There's only so much you can charge for tamales," the owner of a small eatery said in 2015 to explain one reason he was closing.

For some empirical backup, consider an April [2017] study from Michael Luca at Harvard Business School and Dara Lee Luca at ...

June 3, 2017, 5:33 am, 1752826

(p. B4) I first experienced radar-assisted cruise control in a $70,000 Mercedes in 2001. Slowing automatically to keep from hitting the car ahead felt like a magic trick. In 2009, I was told to drive a new $50,000 Volvo into the back of a "parked car" (really, ...

May 26, 2017, 5:33 am, 1750905

(p. D4) Most people, when they think of steam power, they think of rusty farm tractors from 150 years ago. But there's such a thing as modern steam power. Steam is the most direct way to get power out of heat. You can't build an internal combustion ...