Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Art Diamond’s web log”

January 15, 2017, 5:33 am, 1710657

(p. A19) . . . , now ought to be the time that policy makers in Washington come together to tackle America's greatest economic problem: sclerotic growth. The recession ended more than seven years ago. Unemployment has returned to normal levels. Yet gross domestic product is rising ...

January 12, 2017, 5:33 am, 1709904

(p. C12) Effective public policy requires getting good ideas and putting them into practice. There is no better account of the world where economic ideas emerge as economic policy than Sebastian Mallaby's thoroughly researched (there are 1,625 endnotes) "The Man Who Knew," which takes up Alan Greenspan's long ...

January 11, 2017, 5:33 am, 1709545

(p. A17) President-elect Donald Trump's vow to "drain the swamp" in Washington could begin with the Agriculture Department. Federal aid to farmers is forecast by the Congressional Budget Office to soar to $19 billion in 2017. Farmers will receive twice as much of their income from handouts (25%) ...

January 10, 2017, 5:33 am, 1709177

Source of graph: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

(p. B2) It's tempting to think of an ...

December 28, 2016, 5:33 am, 1705961

(p. B1) Working families finally got a raise.

Early on Tuesday, the Census Bureau provided some long-awaited good news for the beleaguered working class: The income of the typical American household perched on the middle rung of the income ladder increased a hearty 5.2 percent in 2015, the first ...

December 23, 2016, 5:33 am, 1705060

(p. A9) Blockchains are basically a much better way of managing information. They are distributed ledgers, run on multiple computers all over the world, for recording transactions in a way that is fast, limitless, secure and transparent. There is no central database overseen by a single ...

December 19, 2016, 5:33 am, 1703692

(p. A23) We can improve the conditions of the working class. Raising low productivity by enabling human creativity is what has mainly worked. By contrast, taking from the rich and giving to the poor helps only a little -- and anyway expropriation is a one-time trick.

. . ...

December 2, 2016, 5:33 am, 1699165

Source of graph: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A3) Americans are leaving the costliest ...

November 30, 2016, 5:33 am, 1698464

(p. B1) They replaced horses, didn't they? That's how the late, great economist Wassily Leontief responded 35 years ago to those who argued technology would never really replace people's work.

. . .

(p. B6) A research paper published last month by the Organization for ...

November 25, 2016, 5:33 am, 1697276

(p. 3) Benjamin M. Friedman of Harvard University, in his book "The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth" (Knopf, 2005), said that at a deep level people make judgments about the economic progress that they see in their own lifetimes, and in comparison with the progress made by ...