May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Art Diamond’s web log”
(p. B8) Corey Heller often finds himself ordering fresh business cards. The human resources executive has switched employers nine times since 1996--and spent less than three years at six of those workplaces.
In any other era, the 51-year-old Mr. Heller would be viewed as an unstable job hopper. ...
I believe the "policy missteps" diagnosis is mainly the right one, but quote some comments on the "secular stagnation" diagnosis because I want to document that for easy access for my book project.
(p. 3) Economists, like physicians, sometimes confront a patient with ...
(p. A13) By significantly reducing the available stock of job opportunities at the bottom end of the career ladder, a higher minimum wage increases the likelihood that unemployed teens will seek income elsewhere. A 2013 study by economists at Boston College analyzed increases in state and federal ...
(p. A11) The numbers don't look good: Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that worker productivity dropped 0.5% in the second quarter of 2016--the third quarterly decline in a row. Productivity growth, a key driver of improved living standards, has averaged only 1.3% a year ...
(p. B4) This month [June 2016], Charles Murray of the American Enterprise Institute will publish an updated version of his plan to replace welfare as we know it with a dollop of $10,000 in after-tax income for every American above the age of 21.
. . ...
(p. A13) What accounts for the wealth and prosperity of the developed nations of the world? How did we get so rich, and how might others join the fold?
Deirdre McCloskey, a distinguished economist and historian, has a clarion answer: ideas. It was ideas, she insists--about commerce, ...
(p. B1) "A lot of companies pushed hard on the idea that technology will solve every problem, and that we shouldn't use humans," said Paul English, the co-founder of a new online company called Lola Travel. (p. B10) "We think humans add value, so we're trying ...