Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Art Diamond’s web log”


April 21, 2017, 5:33 am, 1739766



(p. A17) . . . in a recent empirical study, Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy of Lehigh University and David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan of the University of Houston divided U.S. history into periods, like the 1980s and '90s, where Fed policy basically adhered to the Taylor rule and ...


April 18, 2017, 5:33 am, 1738626



(p. 1) HOW satisfied are we with our jobs?

Gallup regularly polls workers around the world to find out. Its survey last year found that almost 90 percent of workers were either "not engaged" with or "actively disengaged" from their jobs. Think about that: Nine out of 10 ...


April 17, 2017, 5:33 am, 1738330



(p. B1) As the economy has shifted from one that primarily produced things -- refrigerators and cars, guns and shoes -- to one that now deals largely in services and information, economists have grown more and more skeptical that the traditional measure of gross domestic product -- ...


April 15, 2017, 5:33 am, 1738089



(p. 1) Kay Abramowitz has been working, with a few breaks, since she was 14. Now 76, she is a partner in a law firm in Portland, Ore. -- with no intention of stopping anytime soon. "Retirement or death is always on the horizon, but I have ...


April 6, 2017, 5:33 am, 1735438



(p. A13) Life is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short" Thomas Hobbes proclaimed in 1651, and it had been that way ever since humans had inhabited the Earth. At the time Hobbes wrote those words, life expectancy averaged about 30 years old in his native England and income ...


April 4, 2017, 5:33 am, 1734693



(p. B3) In the semiconductor business, it is called the "red brick wall" -- the limit of the industry's ability to shrink transistors beyond a certain size.

On Thursday, however, IBM scientists reported that they now believe they see a path around the wall. Writing in the journal ...


April 3, 2017, 5:33 am, 1734334



(p. A21) . . . while there's been a rightful focus on ending mass incarceration, there has been little public discussion of how we reintegrate this growing population.


. . .


. . . , we should remove unfair barriers to employment. Many jobs now ...


March 30, 2017, 5:33 am, 1733154



(p. A2) In the long run, . . . , potential growth is a job for microeconomic, not macroeconomic, policy. It requires countless, painstaking fixes: raising labor-force participation with training and safety-net programs that don't discourage work; investment-friendly tax and regulatory policies to incentivize investments that take ...


March 17, 2017, 5:33 am, 1729513



(p. 29) Derek Parfit, a British philosopher whose writing on personal identity, the nature of reasons and the objectivity of morality re-established ethics as a central concern for contemporary thinkers and set the terms for philosophic inquiry, died on Monday at his home in London.


. ...


March 15, 2017, 5:33 am, 1728750



(p. A10) Since 2002, the number of technology startups has slowed, hurting job creation. In a 2014 study, economists Javier Miranda, John Haltiwanger and Ian Hathaway said the growth of tech startups accelerated to 113,000 in 2001 from 64,000 in 1992.

That number slumped to 79,000 in 2011 ...