Database Maintenance 7/4/15
Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
"Art Diamond’s web log”
(p. A8) [In June 2015] . . . , the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, a Pentagon research arm, . . . [held] the final competition in its Robotics Challenge in Pomona, Calif. With $2 million in prize money for the robot that performs best in a ...
A distinguished school of libertarian and neo-Austrian economic thought argues, following F.A. Hayek, that institutional improvements only arise from spontaneous order, and never from conscious design. There is something to their argument, but the designs of Alvin Roth provide counter-examples.
(p. A13) Mr. Roth's ...
(p. 21) Between 2009 and 2011, a group of economists at New York University's Stern School of Business published an influential series of reports and books that sought to explain what, exactly, happened during the financial crisis. The depth of the inquiry was notable because the school ...
(p. A11) . . . , Professor Higgins notes that it is Eliza's "curbstone English that will keep her in the gutter to the end of her days." He boasts that with a few months under his instruction, she could get a job "as a lady's maid ...
(p. 301) The pieces of a new dream had finally been drawn in--big, diverse businesses that could combine as a sum greater than the proverbial parts. Now Sears could continue to "democratize" products that were previously too expensive or sophisticated for everyday people.
The automatic washing machine ...
(p. 49) Telling rarely gave a direct order, so the Searsmen near him knew they had to listen hard and learn to read his arcane signals. You had to understand his gnomic comments and apparent throwaway lines, for you would only hear what Telling thought about something ...
(p. A25) "What I find destructive," says David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, "is the message that if you don't get into the top 1 percent then you're out of the game. That's deeply, deeply incorrect."
Autor's own research shows that skills differences are four times ...
(p. 46) It was never that layoffs were anathema to Telling as such; he just resented the sloppiness of a 10-percent across-the-board layoff when some areas of the company should have been cut by 40 percent and some built up by half.
Katz, Donald ...
(p. 5B) In 1964, technology anxieties caused President Lyndon Johnson to create a national commission on automation. When it reported in 1966, the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.8 percent.
"Technological shocks have been happening for decades, and ... the U.S. economy has been adapting to them," ...
(p. 252) Chiara Criscuolo, Peter N. Gal, and Carlo Menon compile empirical evidence concerning "The Dynamics of Employment Growth: New Evidence from 18 Countries." "[N]ot all small businesses are net job creators, showing that only young businesses--predominantly small--create a disproportionate number of jobs, confirming recent evidence for ...