Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Art Diamond’s web log”


March 17, 2017, 5:33 am, 1729513



(p. 29) Derek Parfit, a British philosopher whose writing on personal identity, the nature of reasons and the objectivity of morality re-established ethics as a central concern for contemporary thinkers and set the terms for philosophic inquiry, died on Monday at his home in London.


. ...


March 15, 2017, 5:33 am, 1728750



(p. A10) Since 2002, the number of technology startups has slowed, hurting job creation. In a 2014 study, economists Javier Miranda, John Haltiwanger and Ian Hathaway said the growth of tech startups accelerated to 113,000 in 2001 from 64,000 in 1992.

That number slumped to 79,000 in 2011 ...


March 13, 2017, 5:33 am, 1728008



(p. B1) Since the 1970s, when automated teller machines arrived, the number of bank tellers in America has more than doubled. James Bessen, an economist who teaches at Boston University School of Law, points to that seeming paradox amid new concerns that automation is "stealing" human jobs. To ...


March 8, 2017, 5:33 am, 1726685



(p. A11) ABOARD THE PAPAL AIRPLANE -- Pope Francis has dedicated his papacy to the plight of the poor and delivered severe critiques of economic systems that benefit the rich. But flying back to Rome from his eight-day visit to Latin America, Francis admitted he had overlooked ...


March 2, 2017, 5:33 am, 1724946



(p. A2) The U.S. is experiencing a baby lull that looks set to last for years, a shift demographers say will likely ripple through the U.S. economy and have an impact on everything from maternity wards to federal social programs.


. . .


Demographic Intelligence, a ...


February 26, 2017, 5:33 am, 1723494



(p. A2) Imagine you're president and Congress gives you a huge chunk of money to spend as you wish. Instead of cutting taxes or splashing out more on health care, infrastructure and defense, why not send a check to every adult?

That's the essence of universal basic income, ...


February 19, 2017, 5:33 am, 1721277





Louis Sokoloff's son Kenneth authored, or co-authored, important papers on how patents aided invention in the 1800s.



(p. A21) Dr. Louis Sokoloff, who pioneered the PET scan technique for measuring human brain function and diagnosing disorders, died on July 30 [2015] in ...


February 13, 2017, 5:33 am, 1719210



(p. A15) In "Progress," the Swedish author Johan Norberg deploys reams of data to show just how much life has improved--especially over the past few decades but over the past couple of centuries as well. Each chapter is devoted to documenting progress in a single category, including ...


February 12, 2017, 5:33 am, 1719034



(p. B4) Reflecting on my own brief experience as an invertebrate neuroscientist, I'd say that today's AI is at the jellyfish stage in the evolution of biological intelligence. Real brains--and genuine intelligence--are so far in the future as to be beyond any reasonable horizon of prediction.

Or, as chief ...


February 5, 2017, 5:33 am, 1716827



(p. C7) Mr. Evans claims that "master narratives" have fallen into disrepute, and he does not aspire to provide one. But he returns repeatedly to such themes as the growth of "public space" as Europe urbanized and communications improved. He likewise describes the "shifting contours of inequality" ...