Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Art Diamond’s web log”


July 17, 2014, 5:33 am, 1302260



"Eric S. Raymond said that the code-checking system had failed in the case of Heartbleed." Source of caption and photo: online version of ...


July 14, 2014, 5:33 am, 1300500



(p. 215) Frank Levy and Richard J. Murnane consider the interaction between workers and machinery in "Dancing with Robots: Human Skills for Computerized Work." "On March 22, 1964, President Lyndon Johnson received a short, alarming memorandum from the Ad Hoc Committee on the Triple Revolution. The ...


July 10, 2014, 5:33 am, 1299024



(p. 213) Raghuram Rajan delivered the Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture at the Bank of International Settlements, titled "A Step in the Dark: Unconventional Monetary Policy after the Crisis." "Two competing narratives of the sources of the crisis, and attendant remedies, are emerging. The first, and the better ...


July 9, 2014, 5:33 am, 1298453



(p. B1) LONDON -- On weekends, Guillaume Rosquin browses the shelves of local bookstores in Lyon, France. He enjoys peppering the staff with questions about what he should be reading next. But his visits, he says, are also a protest against the growing power of Amazon. ...


June 15, 2014, 5:33 am, 1286458



"New bonds sold by Apple have been called "Giffen goods," after Sir Robert Giffen, a Scottish economist who noted that the prices of some goods ...


May 31, 2014, 5:33 am, 1279896



(p. 6) Driverless vehicles and drone aircraft are no longer science fiction, and over time, they may eliminate millions of transportation jobs. Many other examples of automatable jobs are discussed in "The Second Machine Age," a book by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, and in my ...


May 27, 2014, 5:33 am, 1277541



(p. 3) Warren Buffett is probably the most famous investor of his generation, and for good reason: His track record over the long term is a thing of beauty.

He has beaten the market by a wide margin over 49 years, a record so impressive that it's ...


May 20, 2014, 5:33 am, 1274368



















Source of book image: online version ...


April 1, 2014, 5:33 am, 1248957



(p. A15) Most commentators viewed the February [2014] jobs report released on March 7 as good news, indicating that the labor market is on a favorable growth path. A more careful reading shows that employment actually fell--as it has in four out of the past six ...


March 28, 2014, 5:33 am, 1247415



(p. A21) . . . Mr. Ryan said two years ago: "We don't want to turn the safety net into a hammock that lulls able-bodied people to lives of dependency and complacency, that drains them of their will and their incentive to make the most ...