Economics Roundtable

Calculated Risk

Read the Bill McBride interview.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


June Payroll Employment

The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.

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Focus on the Problem

U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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DataPoints:  The Dismal Scientist

"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”

by Moody’s Economy.com, a division of Moody’s Analytics.


April 5, 2013, 9:23 am, 1072282

Employment growth missed expectations in March, raising fears of a stalling recovery. Mark Zandi discusses the data with CNBC.


April 3, 2013, 9:23 am, 1071447

ADP's data could be showing the effect of a slowdown in post-Hurricane Sandy rebuilding. Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071306

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve continues to pursue an aggressively easy monetary policy in response to an economy that is operating well below its potential as is evidenced by an unemployment rate above 8%, inflation that is near the Fed’s 2% target, and unsettled global financial markets. Currently, policymakers do not ...


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071305

What are equity markets predicting for Europe and the U.S. economy? Mark Zandi interprets the signals for CNBC.


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071304
The depressed U.S. residential market is beginning to show signs of life. Mark Zandi discusses the outlook with Yahoo finance.


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071303
Times are tough, but there's a strong case for optimism about the next few years. Mark Zandi explains to Yahoo Finance.


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071302

The following appeared in The Philadelphia Inquirer Sunday, Aug. 26.

Look at all ideas on fixing Medicare

by Mark Zandi

Mitt Romney's choice of Rep. Paul Ryan as his running mate put Medicare front and center in the presidential debate. Ryan's Medicare plan, largely endorsed ...


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071301

September will be a critical month for Europe as policymakers attempt to finally get ahead of the crisis. Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071299

Over at NPR's Planet Money, David Kestenbaum and Mark Zandi work the models to see what it will take to bring down the U.S. unemployment rate to pre-recession levels. Their not-very-encouraging conclusion:

The economy just can't grow fast enough to absorb the backlog. Zandi says ...


April 2, 2013, 11:23 pm, 1071300

The latest job creation numbers undershot expectations. What does that mean, and what happens next? Mark Zandi discusses on MSNBC.