Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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DataPoints:  The Dismal Scientist

"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”

by Moody’s Economy.com, a division of Moody’s Analytics.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295702

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve will wind down its quantitative easing efforts this month. The Fed’s balance sheet is thus peaking at close to $2.8 trillion, about $2 trillion greater than under more normal circumstances. While the Fed is not expected to engage in another round of QE, it will maintain ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295703

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve is expected to follow through on its commitment to engage in quantitative easing through June 2011. The Fed has stated its intention to purchase $600 billion in Treasury ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295704

On Monday, June 20, Mark Zandi and other experts dissected the outlook in a panel discussion at the New York Forum.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295705

Given the recent spate of disappointing data, are there any reasons for optimism? Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295701

Markets await Chairman Bernanke's latest outlook, and any hints about the Fed's next move. Mark Zandi discusses on CNBC.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295700

When will the economy improve? NPR's Planet Money boils down the case for a sort-of optimistic outlook.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295697
Some early speculation about potential leadership changes at the U.S. Treasury Department. And an update on the state of the debt-ceiling negotiations.


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295698

The following appeared in Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer:

Moment of truth is at hand: Raise the debt ceiling limit

By Mark Zandi

Most times, the questions I'm asked as an economist are as wide-ranging as the groups I speak to. But these days, everyone asks the same questions: ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295699

If the U.S. realizes a 'peace dividend' after withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq, where should the money go, and what will it accomplish? Mark Zandi comments in the New York Times on the lessons from the 1990's.

The U.S. economy would benefit enormously from a reduction ...


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295696

We are pleased to announce that Dismal Scientist Europe Edition has been upgraded to better serve the needs of our international business subscribers.

Beginning this month, you’ll see substantially deeper real-time coverage and analysis of