Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
DataPoints: The Dismal Scientist
"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”
by Moody’s Economy.com, a division of Moody’s Analytics.
John Cassidy, writing in this week's New Yorker, rethinks the financial bailout:
Economists are still debating what it was that ended the financial crisis and turned the ...Back story, meta-narrative, secular trend: whatever term your discipline favors, the idea is the same. It's all about the larger context in which we frame current events. A helpful convention, but one that can lead to stereotypes and inside-the-box thinking. So I personally cherish those moments when the context ...
A friend of Generation-X years believes with some passion that most of the troubles facing her cohort can be laid the feet of the Baby Boomers. Soaring debt, stagnant employment, endless Woodstock and Beatles reunions—you get the idea.
Well she, as well as all the other Gen-X, Gen-Y and Millennials coming ...
From Sydney, Matt Circosta talks with CNBC about the forecast for the important Southeast Asian economy.
Nik Bhattacharyya discussed Japan's liquidity trap for Dismal Asia/Pacific readers earlier this month. Later, CNBC asked him to tell the wider world..
Matt Robinson talks with India's NDTV about how one small nation's debt problems became a global obsession.
The internet may be destroying traditional journalism, but it's also gestating some pretty cool new forms of information dissemination. Students of government spending, in particular, have a host of new ways to get inside Washington's budgetary skull. Here is ProPublica, for example, on where the financial bailout money ...
Tuesday the Census reported another drop in U.S. homeownership, taking the proportion of Americans who own rather than rent back to the pre-housing boom level. The rate had bubbled up above 69% in 2005; now it's down nearer 67%.
It's ...
Still looking for the light at the end of that long, long, housing tunnel, Mark Z. talks with CNBC:
The following is scheduled for publication in Sunday's Philadelphia Inquirer:
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly in Regulatory Reform
by Mark Zandi
Our financial system has failed us. It’s not a stretch to blame today’s 10 percent unemployment rate ...