Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

DataPoints:  The Dismal Scientist

"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”

by Moody’s, a division of Moody’s Analytics.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771996

After the release of May's U.S. employment numbers Friday, Mark Zandi spoke with CNN's "In the Arena" :

Friday morning, the Department of labor released May’s employment report and the news isn’t great. The economy gained a mere 54,000 jobs in the month, a significant slowdown from ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771999

Pete Davis blogs on Mark Zandi's talk before the National Economists Club. An excerpt:

He expects 3% real GDP growth this year, like last year, and 4% next year. "There won't be a lot of progress on the unemployment rate this year [currently 9.0%] because of ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772000

Mark Zandi talks with the New York Times' David Leonhardt about the U.S. housing market's current woes:

Q. I’m struck at how much higher the rent ratio still is in many places, relative to its average from 1990 to 2010. It’s about 18 in Washington (relative ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771998

Home sales remain weak, and prices have farther to fall. There's light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a long tunnel. Mark Zandi explains why to Bloomberg.

UPDATE: Mark has ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771997

U.S. employment faltered last month. Gasoline prices and supply-chain issues were part of the problem, but what else is wrong? Mark Zandi discusses with the CNBC crew.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771849

Is Washington working at cross-purposes with itself on economic policy? Mark Zandi helps CNBC untangle the fiscal and monetary sides of the equation.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771850

The data and the markets appear to say the U.S. economy is taking off. But is it? Mark Zandi discusses the outlook on CNBC.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771847

ADP's data could be showing the effect of a slowdown in post-Hurricane Sandy rebuilding. Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771846

Employment growth missed expectations in March, raising fears of a stalling recovery. Mark Zandi discusses the data with CNBC.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771848

The following appeared in The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sunday, March 31.

Stocks' upbeat signs are no mirage

By Mark Zandi

Hard to believe, but just four years after crashing in the Great Recession, stock prices are hitting record highs. The surging market not only reflects an ...