Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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DataPoints:  The Dismal Scientist

"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”

by Moody’s Economy.com, a division of Moody’s Analytics.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222161

Even with a plan, the jobless rate may not fall below 9% in 2012, Mark Zandi tells Bloomberg.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222162

After a string of bleak numbers, the outlook is looking dimmer but not hopeless. Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222163

U.S. payrolls were flat in August, and the unemployment rate stayed at 9.1%. Mark Zandi discusses the numbers with CNBC.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222164

The latest FOMC minutes show the central bank trimming its view of U.S. potential growth, Mark Zandi tells CNBC.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222160

Washington gridlock nudges up the odds of a new downturn, Mark Zandi tells CBS' "Face the Nation."


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222159

September's U.S. employment report shows tepid growth and no change in the unemployment rate. Mark Zandi comments on CNBC.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222156

Can Washington help stave off recession and still deal with the long-term deficit? And what about the housing market? Mark Zandi discusses with CNN.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222157

The U.S. isn't in recession, but has a long way to go before we can breathe easy. Mark Zandi discusses the latest data with Bloomberg TV.


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222158

Coming up, a free web conference on the European outlook.


Overcoming Policy Paralysis
October 13, 2011 • 10AM EST / 2PM GMT
Speakers: Enam Ahmed, Melanie Bowler & Zach Witton
Join Moody’s Analytics top economists as they discuss the updates to the ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222155

The GOP's presidential hopefuls are expected to confront the jobs question when they debate this week. Mark Zandi frames the issue with Bloomberg.