Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

DataPoints:  The Dismal Scientist

"A free and open exchange on the economy, and other things.”

by Moody’s, a division of Moody’s Analytics.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503125

After the release of May's U.S. employment numbers Friday, Mark Zandi spoke with CNN's "In the Arena" :

Friday morning, the Department of labor released May’s employment report and the news isn’t great. The economy gained a mere 54,000 jobs in the month, a significant slowdown from ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503126

U.S. employment faltered last month. Gasoline prices and supply-chain issues were part of the problem, but what else is wrong? Mark Zandi discusses with the CNBC crew.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503127

Home sales remain weak, and prices have farther to fall. There's light at the end of the tunnel, but it's a long tunnel. Mark Zandi explains why to Bloomberg.

UPDATE: Mark has ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503128

Pete Davis blogs on Mark Zandi's talk before the National Economists Club. An excerpt:

He expects 3% real GDP growth this year, like last year, and 4% next year. "There won't be a lot of progress on the unemployment rate this year [currently 9.0%] because of ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503124

As U.S. housing appears to be nearing the bottom of its long slide, it may be time to reconsider the math of ownership. Mark Zandi talks with NPR.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503123

Is the slowdown transitory? Mark talks with Bloomberg News about confidence and the recovery.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503120

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve is expected to follow through on its commitment to engage in quantitative easing through June 2011. The Fed has stated its intention to purchase $600 billion in Treasury ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503121

On Monday, June 20, Mark Zandi and other experts dissected the outlook in a panel discussion at the New York Forum.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503122

Given the recent spate of disappointing data, are there any reasons for optimism? Mark Zandi discusses with CNBC.

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503119

Monetary policy

The Federal Reserve will wind down its quantitative easing efforts this month. The Fed’s balance sheet is thus peaking at close to $2.8 trillion, about $2 trillion greater than under more normal circumstances. While the Fed is not expected to engage in another round of QE, it will maintain ...