Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


November 19, 2014, 5:23 am, 1374076

How long can you hold a Treasury Note or Bond, and not suffer a loss in total return terms, if yields rise from where they are today?  Maybe the answer will surprise you, and maybe not — it depends on how fixed-income ...


November 12, 2014, 5:23 am, 1369618

Photo Credit: .SilentMode || Doubts that the deal is legitimate?

I’ve written a lot about financial fraud at Aleph Blog.  I try to encourage people to be skeptical, because it is genuinely ...


November 11, 2014, 5:23 am, 1368879

This book has two significant types of insights: on people and on market failure.  It does well with both of them, but spends most of its time on the former, because it is more interesting.  That said, the second set is more important, ...


November 9, 2014, 5:23 am, 1367567

Photo Credit: Phineas Jones || Beyond the destruction, honesty?

Few like revenue misses, but let me point out a few significant things that investors should care about:

If a company misses revenue estimates around 50% ...


November 6, 2014, 9:23 am, 1365684

Photo Credit: Hans and Carolyn || Do you have the right building blocks for your model?

Simulating hypothetical future investment returns can be important for investors ...


November 5, 2014, 5:23 am, 1364634

Photo Credit: Moyan Brenn || Relax, you know less than you think…

So, the Republicans swamped the Democrats in the midterm elections.

Big deal.

The differences between the varying wings of the ...


November 1, 2014, 5:23 am, 1362114

On Thursday, November 23rd, I was recorded to be on RT Boom/Bust. The first half of it played that day, and the video of it is below:

We covered a lot of ground in a short amount of time.  Here are the ...


October 29, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1360070

Photo Credit: DonkeyHotey

September 2014October 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic ...


October 29, 2014, 5:23 am, 1359663

It’s time to change what Warren Buffett supposedly said about his mentors:

“I’m 85% Ben Graham, and 15% Phil Fisher.”

For those who don’t know, Ben Graham is regarded to be the father of value investing, and Phil Fisher the father of ...


October 28, 2014, 7:23 am, 1358887

Photo Credit: Brett Davies || Waiting, but to what end?

When I worked in the investment department of a number of life insurers, every now and then I would hear one of ...