May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
I have sometimes said that it is common for many people to imitate the behavior of others, rather than think for themselves. There are several reasons for that:It”s ...
efore I write my piece, I want to say a word about the virtue of voting for third party ...
Before I start this evening, ...
Industries come and industries go. Jobs come and go, and they morph. Perhaps we should take heart that politicians don’t change. Most still think ...
Over the years, ...
This is my quarterly update on how much the market is likely to return over the next 10 years. At the end of the last quarter, that figure was around 6.54%/year. For comparison purposes, that is at the 77th percentile of outcomes — high, ...
Six years ago, I reviewed a book The Club No One Wanted To Join. It was ...
I’ve said this before, but I like it when research destroys a preconceived notion of mine. Today’s post stems from an exchange that I had with Jackdamn (what a name) on Stocktwits, talking about a chart created by dshort.
S&P 500 Percent Off High Since March 9, ...