Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


August 28, 2015, 1:23 am, 1535500

Photo Credit: edkohler || Buy Now and smile!

One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital?  I’ll try to answer that here.

There are ...


August 27, 2015, 7:23 am, 1534949

Photo Credit: edkohler || Buy Now and smile!

One of my clients asked me what I think is a hard question: When should I deploy capital?  I’ll try to answer that here.

There are ...


August 26, 2015, 3:23 am, 1534277

Photo Credit: Wally Gobetz

I try not to be an ideologue, and I often fail. One bias of mine is that most macroeconomic policy actions of the government or central bank either don’t help, or merely shift ...


August 25, 2015, 3:23 am, 1533609

Photo Credit: Moyan Brenn || My, now doesn’t that look peaceful…

There is the temptation when market prices move fast after they have been at recent highs to assume that ...


August 23, 2015, 5:23 am, 1532833

This is a story of triumph and tragedy.  Jesse Livermore is notable as one of the few people who ever made it into the richest tiers of society by speculating — by trading stocks and commodities — betting on price movements.

This is three stories ...


August 21, 2015, 7:23 am, 1532148

Photo Credit: Alyson Hurt

The following may be controversial. It also may be dull to the point that you might not care. Here’s why you should care: quarterly reporting is a useful and productive use of corporate ...


August 19, 2015, 5:23 am, 1530785

Photo Credit: Vinoth Chandar || Do you control the elephant, or does the elephant control you?

I’m currently reading a book about the life of ...


August 18, 2015, 5:23 am, 1530078

Suppose you wanted a comprehensive book on all of the ways that there are to get excess returns from the stock market as a type of value investor (as of year-end 2013), and you wanted it in one slim volume.  This is that ...


August 16, 2015, 3:23 am, 1529161

Photo Credit: Simon Cunningham

In part 1, I went through some of the history of defined benefit [DB] pensions using a Q&A format. I’m going to continue that in part 2.

Q: What are we supposed to do ...


August 13, 2015, 3:23 am, 1527604

Photo Credit: 401(K) 2012 || See their website here

On the home front, I have been doing more basic financial counseling than usual, and I’ve had some say to me that ...