Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


September 21, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1677470
July 2016September 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and ...


September 21, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1677471

This is my quarterly update on how much the market is likely to return over the next 10 years.  At the end of the last quarter, that figure was around 6.54%/year.  For comparison purposes, that is at the 77th percentile of outcomes — high, ...


September 15, 2016, 7:24 am, 1673163

Photo Credit: Swampier

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Six years ago, I reviewed a book The Club No One Wanted To Join.  It was ...


September 8, 2016, 7:24 am, 1671124

I’ve said this before, but I like it when research destroys a preconceived notion of mine.  Today’s post stems from an exchange that I had with Jackdamn (what a name) on Stocktwits, talking about a chart created by dshort.

S&P 500 Percent Off High Since March 9, ...


September 1, 2016, 5:24 pm, 1669596

Photo Credit: Renegade98 || What was it that Buffett said ’bout swimmin’ naked?

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I
t’s only when the tide goes out that ...


August 30, 2016, 9:24 am, 1668746

Photo Credit: Doug Waldron

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Before I write this evening, I would like to point out what is going on with Horsehead Holdings [ZINCQ].  There was an article in ...


August 28, 2016, 9:24 am, 1668191

Photo Credit: Thomas Hawk ||

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This post may be a little more complex than most. It will also be more theoretical. For those disinclined to wade through the whole thing, skip ...


August 20, 2016, 7:24 am, 1666130

Photo Credit: Wayne Stadler || Most of us have limited vision, myself included

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In the time I have ...


August 19, 2016, 5:24 am, 1665860

Before I start this evening, thanks to Dividend Growth Investor for telling me about this book.

This is an obscure little book published in 1966.  The title is direct, simple, and descriptive. ...


August 18, 2016, 7:24 am, 1665521

Photo Credit: elycefeliz || Enron and some other US corporations have been ethics-hostile places also

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Yesterday I gave a talk on ethics to the incoming class at The Johns ...