Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)

November 22, 2015, 3:23 am, 1580260

Photo Credit: Teresa Robinson || Your plans, your needs, your dreams, your risks…

What I am going to write here is half of my summary of how Asset ...

November 20, 2015, 5:23 am, 1579567

Photo Credit: Jason Wesley Upton || Of course this isn’t China…

I know this is redacted, but it is advice to a reader in a really remote area of the world.  You ...

November 18, 2015, 3:23 am, 1578190

November 15, 2015, 5:23 am, 1576639

Photo Credit: Shawn Honnick

Blogging a whole conference can be an exhausting affair.  Two things I did not expect — sitting in on the press conference with Lacker and Bullard, and blogging the Lunch speaker ...

November 12, 2015, 7:23 pm, 1575745

Photo Credit: DonkeyHotey

Rep. Bill Huizenga
Chairman, House Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade

Suggested FSOC is a tool of the Fed to press fiscal agenda.  60 new regulations, thousands of pages.

High degree of discretion… Fed makes it up as ...

November 12, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1575669


Moderator: George Melloan
Former Deputy Editor, Wall Street Journal

Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr.
Senior Fellow, Cato Institute

Alex J. Pollock
Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute

David Malpass
President, Encima Global LLC

Melloan introduces Gerald P. O’Driscoll ...

November 12, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1575668

Photo Credit: European Parliament


Moderator: Craig Torres
Reporter, Bloomberg

Jerry L. Jordan
Former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Lawrence H. White
Professor of Economics, George Mason University

Kevin Dowd
Professor of Finance ...

November 12, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1575601

Photo Credit: Adam Baker


Claudio Borio
Head, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements  [praised by the Economist and others]

1) How do we view equilibrium?

How can we tell if market rates are at an equilibrium or ...

November 12, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1575514

Photo Credit: joiseyshowaa

Press conference w/Bullard: embargoed until end of talk.  [everything is a paraphrase here, and I can’t get everything down, as with everything at this conference]

Neo-Fisherian ideas are interesting and worthy of further talking about, but don’t ...

November 12, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1575513

Photo Credit: Day Donaldson


Moderator: Jeffrey A. Miron
Senior Lecturer, Harvard University, and Senior Fellow, Cato Institute

Charles I. Plosser
Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

John B. Taylor
Mary and ...