Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


January 21, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1407591

Photo Credit: Jen Goellnitz

Okay, let’s roll the promoted stocks scoreboard:

TickerDate of ArticlePrice @ ArticlePrice @ 1/20/15DeclineAnnualizedDead?GTXO5/27/20082.450.01
1-99.6%-55.6%BONZ10/22/20090.350.000-99.9%-72.5%BO
NU10/22/20090.890.000-100.0%-82.3%UTOG3/30/20111.5
50.000-100.0%-92.0%DeadOBJE4/29/2011116.000.069-99
.9%-86.3%DeadLSTG10/5/20111.120.004-99.7%-82.5%AER
N10/5/20110.07700.0000-100.0%-93.4%DeadIRYS3/15/20
120.2610.000-100.0%-100.0%DeadRCGP3/22/20121.470.0
03-99.8%-89.5%STVF3/28/20123.240.360-88.9%-54.2%CR
CL5/1/20122.220.004-99.8%-90.2%ORYN5/30/20120.930.
013-98.6%-80.1%BRFH5/30/20121.160.466-59.8%-29.2%L
UXR6/12/20121.590.002-99.9%-92.3%IMSC7/9/20121.50.
910-39.3%-17.9%DIDG7/18/20120.650.003-99.6%-89.1%G
RPH11/30/20120.87150.021-97.6%-82.5%IMNG12/4/20120
.760.010-98.7%-86.9%ECAU1/24/20131.420.000-100.0%-
98.4%DPHS6/3/20130.590.003-99.5%-96.0%POLR6/10/201
35.750.001-100.0%-99.5%NORX6/11/20130.910.008-99.1
%-94.7%ARTH7/11/20131.240.200-83.9%-69.7%NAMG7/25/
20130.850.013-98.5%-94.1%MDDD12/9/20130.790.022-97
.2%-95.9%TGRO12/30/20131.20.056-95.3%-94.5%VEND2/4
/20144.340.655-84.9%-86.1%HTPG3/18/20140.720.008-9
8.9%-99.5%WSTI6/27/20141.350.150-88.9%-97.9%APPG8/
1/20141.520.035-97.7%-100.0%1/20/2015Median-99.3%-
89.8%

It is truly amazing how predictable the losses are from promoted stocks, and that is why you should never buy them. Today’s ...


January 17, 2015, 11:23 am, 1406217

Photo Credit: Storm Crypt || Trusting the Swiss National Bank, Really?

Significant currency brokers relied on the Swiss National Bank to keep its ...


January 4, 2015, 3:24 am, 1398354

Photo Credit: Alon

There is always a reason to worry, and always enough time to panic.

Look over there, behind that bush: interest rates are rising. In Europe and China, deflation is threatening. The geopolitical situation is in many ways ...


January 2, 2015, 7:24 am, 1397822

Photo Credit: PSParrot

Happy New Year to all of my readers. May 2015 be an enriching year for you in all ways, not just money.

This is a series on learning about investing, using my past mistakes as grist for ...


December 23, 2014, 5:24 am, 1393608

Photo Credit: Rob Pym

This is another Aleph Blog series of indeterminate length.  I won’t bleed as much as my friend James Altucher, but I will reveal the worst investments of my life.  There have been a lot ...


December 21, 2014, 3:24 am, 1392736

1. Recently I appeared on RT Boom/Bust again.  The interview lasts 6+ minutes.  Erin Ade and I discussed:

Who benefits from lower energy prices.The No-Lose Line for owning bonds,Whether you are compensated for inflation risks in long bondsHow much an average ...


December 17, 2014, 3:24 pm, 1390960

Photo Credit: International Monetary Fund

October 2014December 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October ...


December 13, 2014, 9:24 am, 1388593

Photo Credit: Chris Piascik

Most formal statements on financial risk are useless to their users. Why?

They are written in a language that average people and many regulators don’t speak.They often don’t define what they are trying to avoid ...


December 11, 2014, 5:24 am, 1387242

Photo Credit: brett jordan

Beware when the geniuses show up in finance. “I can make your money work harder!” some may say, and the simple-minded say, “Make the money sweat, man!  We have retirements to fund, and precious ...


December 4, 2014, 7:23 am, 1383150

Photo Credit: Penn State

personal online banking
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,470px);}

Like my friend Josh Brown does, I often don’t know where I will end when I start writing… I know I have something to say, given ...