Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


October 23, 2014, 9:23 am, 1356282

Photo Credit: whologwhy || Danger: Butterfly at work!

There’s a phenomenon called the Butterfly Effect.  One common quotation is “It has been said that something as small as the flutter of a butterfly’s ...


October 17, 2014, 7:24 am, 1352842

Photo Credit: ~Sage~ || King of the Beasts, eh?

It was winter in early 1995, and I was wondering if I still had a business selling Guaranteed Investment Contracts [GICs].  Confederation Life had ...


October 16, 2014, 7:24 am, 1352067

Photo Credit: Beto Vilaboim || No, you are not crazy — it *is* hopeless

I thought of structuring this post like a fictional story, but I couldn’t figure ...


October 16, 2014, 5:24 am, 1352030

Photo Credit: sea turtle

This is another episode in my continuing saga on dollar-weighted returns. We eat dollar-weighted returns.  Dollar-weighted returns are the returns investors actually receive in a open-end mutual fund or an ETF, which includes ...


October 14, 2014, 5:24 am, 1350626

Photo Credit: Dan Century

I use factors in my investing. What *are* factors, you ask?  Factors are quantitative variables that have been associated with potential outperformance.  What are some of these factors?

Valuation (including yield)Price Momentum (and its opposite in ...


October 11, 2014, 7:24 am, 1349515

Photo Credit: Jimmie

Every now and then, a piece of good news gets announced, and then something puzzling happens.  Example: the GDP report comes out stronger than expected, and the stock market falls.  People scratch their heads and say, ...


October 10, 2014, 7:24 am, 1349015

Photo Credit: Moon Lee || When is this train going to arrive?

There are several ways to gauge the Federal Open Market Committee wrong. I am often guilty of a ...


October 9, 2014, 9:24 am, 1348471

Photo Credit — Javier || Buffett believes in America

Yesterday there was an article where Buffett was quoted on getting mortgages to buy houses. Let me quote the most relevant portion:

“You would ...


October 9, 2014, 7:24 am, 1348394

Photo Credit: eric731 — People can budget, but can they manage risk?

Investing is difficult.  That said, we can make it harder still.  We can encourage people with little to no ...


October 8, 2014, 7:24 am, 1347758

Photo Credit: FotoSleuth

I bought an inexpensive car a couple of days ago, a 2009 Toyota Corolla with 19,700 miles on it.  It’s in almost perfect condition.  I paid ~$10,300 in cash to get it, inclusive of tax and tags.

Sound ...