Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


February 5, 2016, 7:23 am, 1605652

Photo Credit: ibusiness lines

In some ways, this is a boring time in insurance investing.  A lot of companies seem cheap on a book and/or earnings basis, but they ...


February 4, 2016, 5:23 am, 1605204

Photo Credit: Ejaz Asi

In general, I tend not to go in for macro themes.  Why?  I tend to get them wrong, and I think most investors also get ...


January 31, 2016, 5:24 am, 1603816

Photo Credit: Paul Saad || What’s more cyclical than a mine in South Africa?

This is the first of a series of related posts.  I took a one month ...


January 28, 2016, 7:23 am, 1602880

Picture Credit: Dennis S. Hurd

I get letters from all over the world.  Here is a recent one:

Respected Sir,

Greetings of the day!

I read your blog religiously and have ...


January 27, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1602638

December 2015January 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests ...


December 23, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1593668

Photo Credit: Holly Hayes

The Word of God is powerful, as it says in Hebrews 4:12.  That’s why even those that do not believe the Bible will use ...


December 22, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1593376

Photo Credit: Alfred Shum

At this time of year, people often do holiday posts.  I’ve never done that.  I’m going to do it this time, and then probably never do ...


December 22, 2015, 3:23 am, 1593096

Photo Credit: andrew wertz || Half a house is better than none…

I am usually not into financial complexity, but ...


December 20, 2015, 1:23 am, 1592570

Photo Credit: International Monetary Fund

As I was reading today, I ran across a quotation from Stanley Fischer, Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  It was from an ...


December 18, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1592448

If you always overestimate, and don’t change, what does that imply?

Since the FOMC started providing their estimates on economic aggregates four years ago, I’ve been simplifying them, and posted a weighted ...