Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


March 24, 2015, 7:24 am, 1444303

I was on RT Boom/Bust yesterday with Erin Ade, and got to talk about:

AppleThe “Tech Bubble”The “Bond Bubble”Different sectors of the stock market, and their prospects.

This was the first half of the interview.  If they run the second half, I ...


March 22, 2015, 5:24 am, 1443345

Photo Credit: Kevin Trotman

Before I write this evening, I have updated the blog’s theme so that it is more readable on mobile devices.  I’ve tried to preserve most of the best of the former design.  Let me ...


March 19, 2015, 9:24 am, 1442000

Crawling to the first tightening move

There was a lot of hoopla yesterday over the FOMC removing the word “patient” from its statement.  But when you read the sentence that replaced the sentence containing the word patient, ...


March 18, 2015, 7:23 pm, 1441668

Photo Credit: Day Donaldson

January 2015March 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met ...


March 4, 2015, 5:23 am, 1433153

Photo Credit: Fortune Live Media

As I mentioned yesterday, there wasn’t anything that amazing and new in the annual letter of Berkshire Hathaway.  Lots of people found things to comment on, and there is always something true ...


March 3, 2015, 3:24 am, 1432265

Photo Credit: Chuck Coker || Another Dynamic Duo and their secret Batcave

This piece has kind of a long personal introduction to illustrate my point.  If you don’t want to be bored with my personal history, just ...


February 28, 2015, 5:23 am, 1430906

Photo Credit: Eddy Van 3000

This piece is an experiment.  A few readers have asked me to do explanations of simple things in the markets, and this piece is an attempt to do so.  Comments are appreciated. ...


February 26, 2015, 5:24 am, 1429378

Photo Credit: Roscoe Ellis

I was reading an occasional blast email from my friend Tom Brakke, when he mentioned a free publication from Redington, a UK asset management firm that employs actuaries, among others. I was ...


February 17, 2015, 7:23 am, 1423589

At Abnormal Returns, over the weekend, Tadas Viskanta featured a free article from Credit Suisse called the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015.  It featured articles on whether the returns on industries as a whole mean-revert or have ...


February 13, 2015, 7:24 am, 1421948

Photo Credit: NoHoDamon

Brian Lund recently put up a post called 5 Reasons You Deserve to Lose Every Penny in the Stock Market.  Though I don’t endorse everything in his article, I think it is worth a read. ...