Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)

January 21, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1407591

Photo Credit: Jen Goellnitz

Okay, let’s roll the promoted stocks scoreboard:

TickerDate of ArticlePrice @ ArticlePrice @ 1/20/15DeclineAnnualizedDead?GTXO5/27/20082.450.01

It is truly amazing how predictable the losses are from promoted stocks, and that is why you should never buy them. Today’s ...

January 17, 2015, 11:23 am, 1406217

Photo Credit: Storm Crypt || Trusting the Swiss National Bank, Really?

Significant currency brokers relied on the Swiss National Bank to keep its ...

January 4, 2015, 3:24 am, 1398354

Photo Credit: Alon

There is always a reason to worry, and always enough time to panic.

Look over there, behind that bush: interest rates are rising. In Europe and China, deflation is threatening. The geopolitical situation is in many ways ...

January 2, 2015, 7:24 am, 1397822

Photo Credit: PSParrot

Happy New Year to all of my readers. May 2015 be an enriching year for you in all ways, not just money.

This is a series on learning about investing, using my past mistakes as grist for ...

December 23, 2014, 5:24 am, 1393608

Photo Credit: Rob Pym

This is another Aleph Blog series of indeterminate length.  I won’t bleed as much as my friend James Altucher, but I will reveal the worst investments of my life.  There have been a lot ...

December 21, 2014, 3:24 am, 1392736

1. Recently I appeared on RT Boom/Bust again.  The interview lasts 6+ minutes.  Erin Ade and I discussed:

Who benefits from lower energy prices.The No-Lose Line for owning bonds,Whether you are compensated for inflation risks in long bondsHow much an average ...

December 17, 2014, 3:24 pm, 1390960

Photo Credit: International Monetary Fund

October 2014December 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October ...

December 13, 2014, 9:24 am, 1388593

Photo Credit: Chris Piascik

Most formal statements on financial risk are useless to their users. Why?

They are written in a language that average people and many regulators don’t speak.They often don’t define what they are trying to avoid ...

December 11, 2014, 5:24 am, 1387242

Photo Credit: brett jordan

Beware when the geniuses show up in finance. “I can make your money work harder!” some may say, and the simple-minded say, “Make the money sweat, man!  We have retirements to fund, and precious ...

December 4, 2014, 7:23 am, 1383150

Photo Credit: Penn State

personal online banking

Like my friend Josh Brown does, I often don’t know where I will end when I start writing… I know I have something to say, given ...