Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)

August 31, 2014, 3:23 am, 1327085

Photo Credit: Martin Kenny

One of the challenges of fundamental investing is trying to find decent ideas that are off the radar. There are a number of ways to try to do that by looking at:

smaller foreign ...

August 29, 2014, 3:23 am, 1326427

Photo Credit: James Wheeler

I’m going to show you two portfolios — I’m not initially going to tell you much about either one, but then you can consider which one you might like better.  Here’s portfolio A:

August 28, 2014, 1:23 am, 1325686

Photo Credit: dolphinsdock

The dirty truth is that some investments in this life are sold, and not bought.  The prime reason for this is that many people are not willing to learn enough to save and invest on ...

August 27, 2014, 3:23 am, 1325153

Photo Credit: Benh LIEU SONG

Somewhat less than three years ago, I wrote two articles on Behemoth stocks [one, two], which I define as stocks with over $100 Billion of market cap.  Today I want to revisit those stocks, and those that ...

August 26, 2014, 1:23 am, 1324413

Starting again with another letter from a reader, but I will just post his questions in response to this article:

1) How much emphasis do you put on the credit cycle? I guess given your background rather a great deal, although as a fundamentals ...

August 24, 2014, 3:23 am, 1323641

One of the best things for me regarding blogging are the readers who ask me questions.  When I get a set of them that are general enough, I answer them for all my readers, after stripping out identifying data.  Here is the most ...

August 22, 2014, 1:23 am, 1322791

Ordinarily, I read all of the books that I review, but when I don’t, I tell my readers. This book I started to read, but I found it so dry that I started skimming it. It’s not that I don’t know the material; ...

August 21, 2014, 3:23 am, 1322157

“It ain’t what you don’t know that hurts you, it’s what you know that ain’t so.”

(Attributed to Mark Twain, Will Rogers, Satchel Paige, Charles Farrar Browne, Josh Billings, and a number of others)

A lot of what passes for investment knowledge is history-dependent, and may ...

August 20, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1321890

About 1 1/2 years ago, I wrote a seven-part series on investing in insurance stocks.  It is still a good series, and worthy of your time, because there aren’t *that* many writers freely available on the topic.

This particular article deals expands on ...

August 17, 2014, 5:23 am, 1319876

A reader wrote to me and said:

I’m sure a lot of people have already told you but I want to tell you anyway: Your blog is awesome! I came across The Aleph Blog a couple of months ago and I’m very impressed with ...