Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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RSS Feed

The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


September 22, 2017, 3:28 am, 1778220

I’d say this is getting boring, but it’s pretty fascinating watching the rally run.  Now, this is the seventh time I have done this quarterly analysis.  The first one was for December 2015.  Over that time period, the expected annualized 10-year return went like this, ...


September 21, 2017, 2:40 am, 1777857

Photo Credit: stewit

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Just a note before I begin. My piece called “Where Money Goes to Die” was an abnormal piece for me, and it received ...


September 20, 2017, 3:08 pm, 1777707
July 2017September 2017CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773912

Photo Credit: Renaud Camus

In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2015 and January 2016:

Don’t be a Miser in Retirement (Or Ever)

“There is a fine line between over-saving and under-living.”

Another ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773911

Picture Credit: Rocío Garcia Montes

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In my view, these were my best posts written between November 2014 and January 2015:

Stay Calm

Political changes rarely create the policy/legal changes that people fear or hope for, so ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773913

Photo Credit: Hagens_world || I want to buy 1% of all of the items there in one nice neat package!

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There’s been a lot of words ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773908

Joel Tillinghast, one of the best mutual fund managers, runs the money in Fidelity’s Low-Priced Stock Fund.  It has one of the best long-term records among stock funds over the 28 years that ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773907

I feel like the skunk at the party here. I have no argument with the authors, per se. They came up with their concept and executed it adequately. No one else that ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773909

Photo Credit: eFile989

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It is often a wise thing to look around and see where people are doing that is nuts.  Often it is obvious in advance.  In the past, the two most obvious ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773910

Photo Credit: Leo Newball, Jr. || I visited that building when I was 24.

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June 2017July 2017CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued ...