Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


July 5, 2016, 11:24 am, 1651021

Picture Credit: Bloomberg

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Rates can go lower from here.  For as long as I can remember, I have been told by many experts that rates can’t go lower, ...


June 24, 2016, 5:24 am, 1648101

Picture Credit: Peanuts Reloaded || Roughly: “Perhaps today Brexit; Monday an exit from ...


June 17, 2016, 5:24 am, 1646189

When do you admit that you are wrong?  Do you do it publicly?  Do you hide it?

Do you hide it plain sight?

When I look at the graph for Fed funds for 2017 and later, I think the FOMC is admitting that they were wrong for ...


June 15, 2016, 3:24 pm, 1645712

Photo Credit: Norman Maddeaux

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April 2016June 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as ...


June 14, 2016, 5:24 pm, 1645409

Photo Credit: Gwydion M Williams || They do the Hokey Pokey ;)

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Investors need things to scare them, or they don’t have a normal life.  This is ...


June 10, 2016, 9:24 am, 1644333

You might remember my post Estimating Future Stock Returns, and its follow-up piece.  If not they are good reads, and you can get the data on one file here.

The Z.1 report came out yesterday, giving an important new data point to the ...


June 5, 2016, 3:24 am, 1642622

Photo Credit: Bahrain Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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Let me mention four posts that I did recently on energy issues:


May 21, 2016, 5:24 am, 1638585

How Lucky Do You Feel?

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Nine years ago, I wrote about the so-called “Fed Model.” The insights there are still true, though the model has yielded no useful signals over that time. It would have told you to ...


May 20, 2016, 5:24 am, 1638332

May 15, 2016, 3:23 am, 1636618

Photo Credit: GotCredit

This is another piece in the irregular Simple Stuff series, which is an attempt to make complex topics simple.  Today’s topic is:

What is risk?

Here is my simple definition of ...