Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


July 2, 2015, 7:24 am, 1500522

Photo Credit: David Warrington

My last post has many implications. I want to make them clear in this post.

When you analyze a manager, look at the repeatability of his processes.  It’s possible that you could get “the ...


June 28, 2015, 5:24 am, 1498155

Photo Credit: David Warrington

Investing ideas come in many forms:

Factors like Valuation, Sentiment, Momentum, Size, Neglect…New technologiesNew financing methods and security typesChanges in government policies will have effects, cultural change, or other top-down macro ideasNew countries to ...


June 21, 2015, 5:24 am, 1494519

I was writing to potential clients when I realized that I don’t have so much to write about my bond track record as I do my track record with stocks.  I jotted down a note to formalize what I say about my bond portfolios.

One person I was writing to asked ...


June 17, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1492818

Photo credit: jonesylife || Oh look, a dozen doves flying at the FOMC!

April 2015June 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic ...


June 16, 2015, 3:24 am, 1491652

I had the fun today of taping a segment with Ameera David on RT Boom/Bust. The above video covers the first half of the session, and lasts about seven minutes. We covered the following topics (with links to articles of mine, ...


June 14, 2015, 3:24 am, 1490759

Photo Credit: Bowen Chin || What’s more Illiquid than Frozen Tundra?

My last piece on this topic, On Bond Market Illiquidity (and more), drew a few good comments.  I ...


June 6, 2015, 3:24 am, 1486937

Photo Credit: Xerones

This will be a short piece, because what I have to say is simple.  My portfolio rule eight requires me to make changes to the portfolio 3-4 times a year.  Here’s the rule:

Make changes ...


June 5, 2015, 5:24 am, 1486451

Photo Credit: www.SeniorLiving.Org also Ken Teegardin

I was riding home with child number seven after a basketball practice about four months ago — this is the child that if any of mine has the ...


June 4, 2015, 5:24 am, 1485731

Photo Credit: Moyan Brenn || What’s more Illiquid than the desert?

I’ve read a lot of articles about bond market illiquidity, and I don’t think it is as big of ...


June 3, 2015, 5:24 am, 1485041

Photo Credit: Jason Devaun

Recently I ran across an academic journal article where they posited one dozen or so risk premiums that were durable, could be taken advantage of in the markets.  In the past, if ...