Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


April 19, 2015, 3:23 am, 1457825

Photo Credit: Simon Cunningham

How does capital get allocated to the public stock markets?  Through the following means:

Initial Public Offerings [IPOs]Follow-on offerings of stock (including PIPEs, etc.)Employees who give up wage income in exchange for stock, or contingent ...


April 17, 2015, 5:23 am, 1457008

Photo Credit: wackystuff

No one wants to be a forced seller in a panic. So how does anyone get into that situation?  Two things: bad planning and a bad scenario.

Let’s start with the obvious stuff: the moment you start ...


April 12, 2015, 5:24 am, 1453979

Photo Credit: Mark Stevens

There’s one thing that is a misunderstanding about retirement investing. It’s not something that is out-and-out wrong. It’s just not totally right.

Many think the objective is to acquire a huge pile of assets.

Really, that’s ...


April 2, 2015, 7:23 am, 1449648

I write about this every now and then, because human fertility is falling faster then most demographers expect. Using the CIA Factbook for data, the present total fertility rate for the world is 2.425 births per woman that survives childbearing. ...


March 31, 2015, 5:23 am, 1448163

Here’s the second half of my most recent interview with Erin Ade at RT Boom/Bust. [First half located here.] We discussed:

Stock buybacks, particularly the buyback that GM is doingValuations of the stock market and bondsEffect of ...


March 29, 2015, 5:24 am, 1447168

Photo Credit: Tulane Public Relations || James Carville wants to be “reincarnated” as the bond market, to scare everyone ...


March 24, 2015, 7:24 am, 1444303

I was on RT Boom/Bust yesterday with Erin Ade, and got to talk about:

AppleThe “Tech Bubble”The “Bond Bubble”Different sectors of the stock market, and their prospects.

This was the first half of the interview.  If they run the second half, I ...


March 22, 2015, 5:24 am, 1443345

Photo Credit: Kevin Trotman

Before I write this evening, I have updated the blog’s theme so that it is more readable on mobile devices.  I’ve tried to preserve most of the best of the former design.  Let me ...


March 19, 2015, 9:24 am, 1442000

Crawling to the first tightening move

There was a lot of hoopla yesterday over the FOMC removing the word “patient” from its statement.  But when you read the sentence that replaced the sentence containing the word patient, ...


March 18, 2015, 7:23 pm, 1441668

Photo Credit: Day Donaldson

January 2015March 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met ...