Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)

October 23, 2016, 7:23 am, 1685921

Photo Credit: Rouslette-Ainsworth


I have sometimes said that it is common for many people to imitate the behavior of others, rather than think for themselves.  There are several reasons for that:

It”s ...

October 21, 2016, 7:23 am, 1685573

Photo Credit: Alison & Orlando Masis


efore I write my piece, I want to say a word about the virtue of voting for third party ...

October 20, 2016, 7:23 am, 1685202

Data Source: Media General || Note: Do not cite or republish this graph without publishing the limitations paragraph below.


Before I start this evening, ...

October 16, 2016, 3:23 am, 1683972

Photo Credit: Paul


Industries come and industries go. Jobs come and go, and they morph.  Perhaps we should take heart that politicians don’t change.  Most still think ...

October 14, 2016, 7:23 am, 1683615

Photo Credit: Constanza || Well, aren’t many efforts at adjusting earnings patch jobs??


Over the years, ...

October 9, 2016, 5:23 am, 1682056

Photo Credit: Daniel Mennerich || A bridge described in fiction ...

September 21, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1677471

This is my quarterly update on how much the market is likely to return over the next 10 years.  At the end of the last quarter, that figure was around 6.54%/year.  For comparison purposes, that is at the 77th percentile of outcomes — high, ...

September 21, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1677470
July 2016September 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and ...

September 15, 2016, 7:24 am, 1673163

Photo Credit: Swampier


Six years ago, I reviewed a book The Club No One Wanted To Join.  It was ...

September 8, 2016, 7:24 am, 1671124

I’ve said this before, but I like it when research destroys a preconceived notion of mine.  Today’s post stems from an exchange that I had with Jackdamn (what a name) on Stocktwits, talking about a chart created by dshort.

S&P 500 Percent Off High Since March 9, ...