Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


August 22, 2014, 1:23 am, 1322791

Ordinarily, I read all of the books that I review, but when I don’t, I tell my readers. This book I started to read, but I found it so dry that I started skimming it. It’s not that I don’t know the material; ...


August 21, 2014, 3:23 am, 1322157

 

 

“It ain’t what you don’t know that hurts you, it’s what you know that ain’t so.”

(Attributed to Mark Twain, Will Rogers, Satchel Paige, Charles Farrar Browne, Josh Billings, and a number of others)

A lot of what passes for investment knowledge is history-dependent, and may ...


August 20, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1321890

About 1 1/2 years ago, I wrote a seven-part series on investing in insurance stocks.  It is still a good series, and worthy of your time, because there aren’t *that* many writers freely available on the topic.

This particular article deals expands on ...


August 17, 2014, 5:23 am, 1319876

A reader wrote to me and said:

I’m sure a lot of people have already told you but I want to tell you anyway: Your blog is awesome! I came across The Aleph Blog a couple of months ago and I’m very impressed with ...


August 16, 2014, 9:23 am, 1319679

I remember sitting in my intermediate macroeconomics class at Johns Hopkins, when the Professor was trying to develop the concept of the Phillips Curve, which posits a trade-off between labor unemployment and price inflation, at least in the short run.  The time ...


August 15, 2014, 5:23 am, 1319042

 

On a letter from a reader:

In your Industry Ranks August 2014 post you mentioned that you use Value Line analytic tools.

If it is not a secret, what other third-party research and analysis do you use, especially for company analysis (MorningStar, Zacks…)?

Do you rely/subscribed ...


August 14, 2014, 9:23 am, 1318447
#88621042 / gettyimages.com

There is a temptation, particularly among novice value investors, to throw money at a stock ...


August 13, 2014, 7:23 am, 1317666

This is the continuation of The Shadows of the Bond Market’s Past, Part I.  If you haven’t read part I, you will need to read it.  Before I start, there is one more thing I want ...


August 12, 2014, 7:23 am, 1316833

 

Source: FRED

Above is the chart, and here is the data for tonight’s piece:

DateT1T3T5T7T10T20T30AAABAASpdNote3/1/713.69
4.505.005.425.705.946.01*7.218.461.25High4/1/775.4
46.316.797.117.377.677.738.049.071.03Med12/1/914.3
85.396.196.697.097.667.708.319.260.95Med8/1/933.44
4.365.035.355.686.276.326.857.600.75Med10/1/012.33
3.143.914.314.575.345.327.037.910.88Med7/1/042.103
.053.694.114.505.245.235.826.620.80Med6/1/100.321.
172.002.663.203.954.134.886.231.35High8/1/140.130.
941.672.162.523.033.294.184.750.57Low

Source: FRED   |||     * = Simulated data value  |||  Note: T1 means the yield on a one-year Treasury Note, T30, 30-year Treasury Bond, etc.

Above ...


August 10, 2014, 3:23 am, 1315554

Just a few notes for this evening:

1) I’ve been a bull on the long end of the Treasury curve for a while.  It’s been a winning bet, and the drumbeat of “interest rates have nowhere to go but up” continues.  Here’s an argument from Jeffrey Gundlach on why long ...