May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
On Thursday, November 23rd, I was recorded to be on RT Boom/Bust. The first half of it played that day, and the video of it is below:
We covered a lot of ground in a short amount of time. Here are the ...
“I’m 85% Ben Graham, and 15% Phil Fisher.”
When I worked in the investment department of a number of life insurers, every now and then I would hear one of ...
No one knows their financial “risk tolerance” outside of the context of losing money. Part of the trouble is that risk and return are often described in the same breath as if they are ...
It was winter in early 1995, and I was wondering if I still had a business selling Guaranteed Investment Contracts [GICs]. Confederation Life had ...
This is another episode in my continuing saga on dollar-weighted returns. We eat dollar-weighted returns. Dollar-weighted returns are the returns investors actually receive in a open-end mutual fund or an ETF, which includes ...
I use factors in my investing. What *are* factors, you ask? Factors are quantitative variables that have been associated with potential outperformance. What are some of these factors?Valuation (including yield)Price Momentum (and its opposite in ...