Database Maintenance 7/4/15
Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
I’m not going to argue for any particular strategy here. My main point is this: every valid strategy is going to have some periods of underperformance. Don’t give up on your strategy because of that; ...
This morning, I looked at the fall in the Chinese stock market, and I said to myself, “It’s been a long journey since the last crash.” After that, I wrote a brief piece ...
This post is an experiment, and not meant to be definitive. If you have any comments to improve it, leave a comment, or email me. Thanks.
The School of Money
Most books ...
From a friend who is a client:
Here are a couple of things I have been pondering.Market capitalization is pretty fictitious. It assumes that all the shares of a company are worth the price at which ...
One of the constants in investing is that average investors show up late to the party or to the crisis. Unlike many gatherings where it may be cool to be fashionably late, in ...
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
Susan Weiner has an interesting piece as her blog on Investment Writing called Are financial predictions too risky for investment commentary ...
Here are some simple propositions on liquidity:Liquidity is positively influenced by the quality of an assetLiquidity is positively influenced by the simplicity of an assetLiquidity is negatively influenced by the price momentum of an assetLiquidity is negatively influenced ...
I’ve been on both sides of the fence. I’ve been a bond manager, with a large, complex (and illiquid) portfolio, and I have been a selector of managers. Thus the current squabble ...