May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
Ordinarily, I read all of the books that I review, but when I don’t, I tell my readers. This book I started to read, but I found it so dry that I started skimming it. It’s not that I don’t know the material; ...
â€śIt ainâ€™t what you donâ€™t know that hurts you, itâ€™s what you know that ainâ€™t so.â€ť
(Attributed to Mark Twain, Will Rogers,Â Satchel Paige, Charles Farrar Browne,Â Josh Billings,Â and a number of others)
A lot of what passes for investment knowledge is history-dependent, and may ...
About 1 1/2 years ago, I wrote a seven-part series on investing in insurance stocks. Â It is still a good series, and worthy of your time, because there aren’t *that* many writers freely available on the topic.
This particular article deals expands on ...
I’m sure a lot of people have already told you but I want to tell you anyway: Your blog is awesome! I came across The Aleph Blog a couple of months ago and Iâ€™m very impressed with ...
I remember sitting in my intermediate macroeconomics class at Johns Hopkins, when the Professor was trying to develop the concept of the Phillips Curve, which posits a trade-off between labor unemployment and price inflation, at least in the short run. Â The time ...
On a letter from a reader:
In your Industry Ranks August 2014 post you mentioned that you use Value Line analytic tools.
If it is not a secret, what other third-party research and analysis do you use, especially for company analysis (MorningStar, Zacks…)?
Do you rely/subscribed ...
There is a temptation, particularly among novice value investors, to throw money at a stock ...
This is the continuation ofÂ The Shadows of the Bond Marketâ€™s Past, Part I. Â If you haven’t read part I, you will need to read it. Â Before I start, there is one more thing I want ...
Above is the chart, and here is the data for tonight’s piece:DateT1T3T5T7T10T20T30AAABAASpdNote3/1/713.69
Source: FRED Â ||| Â Â * = Simulated data value Â ||| Â Note: T1 means the yield on a one-year Treasury Note, T30, 30-year Treasury Bond, etc.
Just a few notes for this evening:
1) I’ve been a bull on the long end of the Treasury curve for a while. Â It’s been a winning bet, and the drumbeat of “interest rates have nowhere to go but up” continues. Â Here’s an argument from Jeffrey Gundlach on why long ...