May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
Rates can go lower from here. For as long as I can remember, I have been told by many experts that rates can’t go lower, ...
When do you admit that you are wrong? Do you do it publicly? Do you hide it?
Do you hide it plain sight?
When I look at the graph for Fed funds for 2017 and later, I think the FOMC is admitting that they were wrong for ...
=-=-=-=-April 2016June 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that labor market conditions have improved further even as ...
Investors need things to scare them, or they don’t have a normal life. This is ...
The Z.1 report came out yesterday, giving an important new data point to the ...
Let me mention four posts that I did recently on energy issues:
Nine years ago, I wrote about the so-called “Fed Model.” The insights there are still true, though the model has yielded no useful signals over that time. It would have told you to ...
This is another piece in the irregular Simple Stuff series, which is an attempt to make complex topics simple. Today’s topic is:
What is risk?
Here is my simple definition of ...