May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
Nine years ago, I wrote about the so-called “Fed Model.” The insights there are still true, though the model has yielded no useful signals over that time. It would have told you to ...
This is another piece in the irregular Simple Stuff series, which is an attempt to make complex topics simple. Today’s topic is:
What is risk?
Here is my simple definition of ...
I’m thinking of starting a limited series called “dirty secrets” of finance and investing. If anyone wants to toss me some ideas you can contact me here. I know that since starting this blog, I ...
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This is the fourth article in ...
Every now and then, you will run across a mathematical analysis where if you use a certain screening, trading, or other investment method, it produces a ...
Most games in life are cooperative. Many are competitive. A few are perverse.
That’s what the crude ...
Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics Blog
My most recent post, Estimating Future Stock Returns was well-received. I expected as much. I presented it as part of a larger presentation to a session at the Society ...