Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


January 13, 2017, 7:23 am, 1710252

Photo Credit: www.GlynLowe.com

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I was driving to a meeting of the Baltimore CFA Society, and listening to Bloomberg Radio, which was carrying President-Elect Trump’s Press Conference. I didn’t think too much about what ...


January 4, 2017, 3:23 am, 1707492

Photo Credit: D.C.Atty || Scrawled in 2008, AFTER the crash started

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Comments are always appreciated from readers, if they are polite.  Here’s a recent one from the piece Distrust ...


January 1, 2017, 7:23 am, 1706844

Photo Credit: New America || Could only drive through the rear-view mirror

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This is the time of year where lots of stray forecasts get given.  I got tired enough of it, ...


December 27, 2016, 9:23 am, 1705753

Photo Credit: Timothy Appnel

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Here’s the quick summary of what I will say: People and companies need liquidity.  Anything where payments need to be made needs liquidity.  Secondary markets ...


December 25, 2016, 5:23 am, 1705391

Photo Credit: darwin Bell || You ain’t getting out easily…

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How would you like a really good model to make money ...


December 21, 2016, 9:23 am, 1704468

Ben Graham, who else?

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Well, I didn’t think I would do any more “Rules” posts, but here one is:

In markets, “what is true” works in the long run. “What people ...


December 17, 2016, 7:23 am, 1703400

Credit: Bloomberg || Graph of Penn Treaty’s stock price 2002-2009

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I wrote about this last in October 2009 in a piece lovingly entitled: At Last, Death! (speaking of the holding company, not the insurance subsidiaries).  I’m going to quote the whole piece here, ...


December 16, 2016, 5:23 am, 1703113

Photo Credit: G E M

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If I had to suggest two attitudinal adjustments for the average retail investor, I would encourage patience and a little courage.  Why these two?

Patience is needed for a ...


December 15, 2016, 7:23 am, 1702817

Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics Blog || I get implementation credit, which is less…

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My last post on this generated some good questions.  I’m going to answer them here, because this model deserves a better explanation.  Before I start, I should say that in ...


December 14, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1702681

Photo Credit: stantontcady

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November 2016December 2016CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has ...