Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


December 17, 2014, 3:24 pm, 1390960

Photo Credit: International Monetary Fund

October 2014December 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October ...


December 13, 2014, 9:24 am, 1388593

Photo Credit: Chris Piascik

Most formal statements on financial risk are useless to their users. Why?

They are written in a language that average people and many regulators don’t speak.They often don’t define what they are trying to avoid ...


December 11, 2014, 5:24 am, 1387242

Photo Credit: brett jordan

Beware when the geniuses show up in finance. “I can make your money work harder!” some may say, and the simple-minded say, “Make the money sweat, man!  We have retirements to fund, and precious ...


December 4, 2014, 7:23 am, 1383150

Photo Credit: Penn State

personal online banking
.pli7{position:absolute;clip:rect(440px,auto,auto
,470px);}

Like my friend Josh Brown does, I often don’t know where I will end when I start writing… I know I have something to say, given ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382440

Photo Credit: Phineas Jones || Beyond the destruction, honesty?

Few like revenue misses, but let me point out a few significant things that investors should care about:

If a company misses revenue estimates around 50% ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382441

Photo Credit: Hans and Carolyn || Do you have the right building blocks for your model?

Simulating hypothetical future investment returns can be important for investors ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382439

This book has two significant types of insights: on people and on market failure.  It does well with both of them, but spends most of its time on the former, because it is more interesting.  That said, the second set is more important, ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382436

Photo Credit: Richard.Asia

Recently, I had a client leave me.  I’m not sure why he did — I didn’t ask, because that’s his business.  It *is* his money, after all, not mine.  After deducting the accrued fee, I thanked ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382437

How long can you hold a Treasury Note or Bond, and not suffer a loss in total return terms, if yields rise from where they are today?  Maybe the answer will surprise you, and maybe not — it depends on how fixed-income ...


December 3, 2014, 11:23 am, 1382438

Photo Credit: .SilentMode || Doubts that the deal is legitimate?

I’ve written a lot about financial fraud at Aleph Blog.  I try to encourage people to be skeptical, because it is genuinely ...