Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)

May 26, 2015, 1:24 am, 1480185

Photo Credit: Nic Taylor

There is no getting something for nothing.  There is always a cost involved, even if it is feeling vaguely obligated to listen to the person giving you a gift.  We are social creatures, and ...

May 13, 2015, 5:24 am, 1473533

Photo Credit: Maryland GovPics

Today I saw an article about a high school investing contest, and like most contests of that type, it does not teach investing, but speculation.

I’ve wanted to try this for about ten ...

May 8, 2015, 7:24 am, 1470156

image credit: trialsanderrors

I can’t help but think after the financial crisis that we have drawn some wrong conclusions about systemic risk. Systemic risk is when the financial system as a whole threatens to fail, such that short-term ...

May 7, 2015, 5:24 am, 1469384

Image Credit: Aidan Jones

Tonight’s topic comes from a note sent to me by a friend. Here it is:

David, I have heard you say that you have entered into partnerships in the past.  What are your rules ...

May 6, 2015, 7:24 am, 1468597

Photo Credit: arsheffield

I imagine the SEC (or the Fed, IRS, or the FSOC) saying: “If we only have enough data, we can answer the policy questions that we are interested in, create better policy, prosecute bad guys, ...

May 2, 2015, 5:24 am, 1466107

Photo Credit: U.S. Geological Survey

This will be the last of my institutional error pieces. It is not that I have not made any other errors, but these were the big ones.

National Atlantic Holdings [NAHC]

I was ...

May 1, 2015, 7:23 am, 1465472

Photo Credit: Ian || Watching Capital Implode is a Marvel to Behold!

This is one of the many times that I wish had not changed its file structure, ...

April 30, 2015, 5:24 am, 1464645

Photo Credit: Phil

This will be the post where I cover the biggest mistakes that I made as an institutional bond and stock investor. In general, in my career, my results were very good for those who employed ...

April 29, 2015, 3:24 pm, 1464201

Photo credit: jonesylife || Oh look, there are twelve doves flying!

March 2015April 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat.Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee ...

April 29, 2015, 5:24 am, 1463791

Photo Credit: Matthias Ripp || Some bad ideas should be locked away…

Dan Primack of Fortune wrote in his daily email:

Saving unicorns from themselves? There was an interesting piece last week from Martin Peers in The Information (sub req), ...