Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


July 29, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1517991

Photo credit: jonesylife || Oh look, a dozen doves flying at the FOMC!

June 2015July 2015CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic ...


July 29, 2015, 5:23 am, 1517588

Photo Credit: BK

I’m not going to argue for any particular strategy here. My main point is this: every valid strategy is going to have some periods of underperformance.  Don’t give up on your strategy because of that; ...


July 28, 2015, 5:23 am, 1516767

Photo Credit: Kat N.L.M.

This morning, I looked at the fall in the Chinese stock market, and I said to myself, “It’s been a long journey since the last crash.” After that, I wrote a brief piece ...


July 26, 2015, 3:23 am, 1515761

Photo Credit: Pictures of Money

This post is an experiment, and not meant to be definitive. If you have any comments to improve it, leave a comment, or email me.  Thanks.

The School of Money

Most books ...


July 24, 2015, 5:23 am, 1514938

Photo Credit: winnifredxoxo

From a friend who is a client:

Here are a couple of things I have been pondering.

Market capitalization is pretty fictitious. It assumes that all the shares of a company are worth the price at which ...


July 22, 2015, 3:23 am, 1513313

Photo Credit: Lynne Hand

One of the constants in investing is that average investors show up late to the party or to the crisis.  Unlike many gatherings where it may be cool to be fashionably late, in ...


July 19, 2015, 5:23 am, 1511740

Photo Credit: garlandcannon

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

Attributed to many people

Susan Weiner has an interesting piece as her blog on Investment Writing called Are financial predictions too risky for investment commentary ...


July 17, 2015, 5:23 am, 1510871

Photo Credit: Jon Gos

Here are some simple propositions on liquidity:

Liquidity is positively influenced by the quality of an assetLiquidity is positively influenced by the simplicity of an assetLiquidity is negatively influenced by the price momentum of an assetLiquidity is negatively influenced ...


July 15, 2015, 5:23 am, 1509444

Photo Credit: Aislinn Ritchie

I’ve been on both sides of the fence.  I’ve been a bond manager, with a large, complex (and illiquid) portfolio, and I have been a selector of managers.  Thus the current squabble ...


July 12, 2015, 5:23 am, 1507583

Photo Credit: Mike_fleming

There was an article at Bloomberg on gaming additions to and deletions from indexes, and at least two comments on it (one, two).  You can read them at your convenience; in this ...