Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Aleph Blog (David Markel)


May 1, 2016, 3:23 am, 1631726

April 27, 2016, 3:24 pm, 1630499


April 24, 2016, 7:23 am, 1629440

Photo Credit: Leslie Archard

Every now and then, you will run across a mathematical analysis where if you use a certain screening, trading, or other investment method, it produces a ...


April 19, 2016, 5:23 am, 1627846

Photo Credit: Istvan || Note OPEC HQ in Vienna

Most games in life are cooperative.  Many are competitive.  A few are perverse.

That’s what the crude ...


April 17, 2016, 7:23 am, 1627339

Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics Blog

My most recent post, Estimating Future Stock Returns was well-received.  I expected as much.  I presented it as part of a larger presentation to a session at the Society ...


April 10, 2016, 3:23 am, 1625280

Idea Credit: Philosophical Economics, but I estimated and designed the graphs

There are many alternative models for attempting to estimate how undervalued or overvalued the stock market is.  Among ...


April 5, 2016, 7:24 am, 1623913

Photo Credit: Robert Tuck || Of course, in half a cycle ...


April 3, 2016, 5:23 am, 1623328

Photo Credit: Falcon® Photography  || In this story, TSB stands for “The Storage Bank”

This piece is another one of my experiments, please bear with me.

“Measure Twice, Cut Once” ...


March 31, 2016, 3:23 am, 1622520

Photo Credit: thecrazysquirrel

Before I start tonight, I just wanted to mention that I was on South Korean radio a few days ago, on the main English-speaking station, talking about Helicopter ...


March 27, 2016, 5:23 am, 1621315

Photo Credit: Liz West

A friend I haven’t heard from in many years since he left the USA wrote me. He closed the letter in an unusual way, saying:

PS — USA ...