September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The Aleph Blog (David Markel)
The following was published at RealMoney, but I don’t know the date.
‚ÄúI can always find good stocks to buy, but figuring out when to sell is harder.‚ÄĚ¬† (My Mom, when I was much younger.)
In some ways, my career in investing has been a happy accident.¬† Much of my career ...
This book encourages you to invest most of your savings abroad, away from the imperfect but good protections offered by US law.¬† I wrote a piece on this idea a few years ago that pointed out the problems with this idea.¬† (Note ...
This is a good book to help the inexperienced learn about investing.¬† It begins by teaching the rudiments of accounting through the adventures of a man and his company who have built a better mousetrap.
He starts the business on his own, but ...
This is a tough book to review.¬† It is correct in analysis of what went wrong, but overpromises in what its main goal is — protecting assets before the next financial crisis.
Let me take a step back, and describe the structure of ...
Rest of the World
¬†Morgan Stanley Leads Japan M&A for 1st Time Since 1997 http://t.co/QnzC26Wj7a Global expertise is @ a premium w/many deals across borders $$ Nov 30, 2013Can Phone-Charging Stove Cut Wood Pollution and Save Lives? http://t.co/XY66nqo3xO Cook food w/less fuel & pollution; make electricity $$ Nov 30, 2013Carney‚Äôs Housing ...
I had two more good questions in response to my piece Why I Resist Trends.¬† Here we go:
I think you have some idea which ones are the best by the discount to intrinsic value. If you were running a business (which you are when you are investing) and you had ...
Portfolio Rule Seven says:
Rebalance the portfolio whenever a stock gets more than 20% away from its target weight. Run a largely equal-weighted portfolio because it is genuinely difficult to tell what idea is the best. Keep about 30-40 names for diversification purposes.
Rarely is a stock a better idea after ...
My last post, On Investment Ideas, Redux, received two good questions.¬† Here they are, with my answers:
When using your quantitative factors, do your normally compare an investment idea relative to its sector, industry, or a custom comp group? I have dabbled in quantitative factor models in the past, and normally ...
Would I disclose proprietary ideas of mine?¬† I’ve done it before.¬† Why would I do it?¬† Because it would take a lot to make the ideas usable.¬† Remember my commentary from when I was a bond manager: I was far more open with my brokers than most managers, but I ...
Sometimes I think regulators are in over their heads.¬† They aren’t talented enough to run a company, but they think they can control the excesses of financial companies.¬† Then there’s the Fed.¬† They think they can control an entire economy through the weak policy lever of affecting the views of ...