Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economics Help

"Helping to Simplify Economics”

October 23, 2014, 5:23 am, 1356133

The German economy has been one of the world’s strongest economies in the post-war period. There are many aspects of the German economy which deserve praise and emulation – not least strong productivity growth, a booming export sector and prolonged low ...

October 21, 2014, 7:23 am, 1354668

The ECB inflation target is 2% – ‘it aims to maintain inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. ‘

However, some economists argue that in the current situation, the ECB should have a higher inflation target of 3-4%.

The ...

October 21, 2014, 5:23 am, 1354586

Readers Question: How does inflation targeting operate when there is a deflation? and what are the problems associated with this?

It’s a good question to ask at the moment, especially with regard to the ECB and Eurozone.

Firstly, the EU inflation target is – below but close to 2%. If inflation falls ...

October 20, 2014, 5:23 am, 1353888

Deflation is defined as a fall in the general price level. It is a negative rate of inflation. It means the value of money increases rather than decreases. Deflation is not necessarily bad, but often periods of deflation / low inflation can lead ...

October 17, 2014, 7:23 am, 1352840

In recent months the price of crude oil has fallen 30%. This fall in the price of oil has a significant impact in reducing transport and other business costs. Falling oil prices is good news for oil importers, such as Western ...

October 16, 2014, 7:23 am, 1352066

Readers Question: Since the debt is mainly in the form of government bonds or gilts then it can only be paid back when the term of the bond terminates. What happens if there is not enough money to pay this back?

October 15, 2014, 7:23 am, 1351436

The UK has one of the highest tax rates on petrol / diesel in Europe – roughly 60% of the final price of petrol goes to the government in excise duty or VAT.

UK fuel duty is currently 58p per litre for ...

October 14, 2014, 5:23 am, 1350625

Readers Question. You make the point that the debt to GDP fell in the post war period since the GDP rose faster than the debt but that still left the debt to ...

October 14, 2014, 5:23 am, 1350624

In the recent blog – Post-war economic boom and reduction in debt, we saw how the UK successfully reduced national debt as a % of GDP from 230% of GDP to 30% ...

October 13, 2014, 9:23 am, 1350136

Readers Question: What caused the massive decrease in the debt to GDP ratio for the UK following World War II?


UK national debt peaked in the late 1940s at over 230% of GDP. From ...