May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Helping to Simplify Economics”
Readers Question: What effect do interest rates (either a rise, fall or steadying) have on both monetary and real wages? I think I’ve got my head round it, but I’m looking for a nicely explain summary (understanding that there are probably a million of contributing factors that can lead to ...
First teaching from Sept 2015. First A level exam Summer 2017.
On the positive side, the syllabus is very detailed. OCR are very clear on ...
TIPP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) is a potential trade deal between the EU and US. It is currently being negotiated by the European Commission and the US.
The aim of the agreement isEncouraging trade and investment between the EU and the US. Extend principles ...
A reader on twitter asked – How has government borrowing helped me recently?
I’m tempted to paraphrase as – What has borrowing ever done for me? – just so that I can make a reference to Monty Python and the Life of Brian? – And what ...
Leaving the Euro is supposed to be irreversible.
If a country did threaten to leave the Euro – it was argued it would lead to bank runs, loss of confidence, high unemployment and a serious recession.
But, what if you already have all of these components?
The Greek economy is in dire state. ...
Just a short note on Greece because at the moment I’m concentrating on writing revision guides.
For several years I have felt that Greece would be better off to leave the Eurozone. This is partly due to economics, but also partly an intuition – that there is no greater recipe for ...
The UK national debt is the total amount of money the British government owes to the private sector and other purchasers of UK gilts.In April 2015, public sector net debt excluding public sector banks (PSND ex) was £1,487.7 billion (80.4% of GDP) Source: [1. ONS public sector finances ] (page ...
I have just finished the new version of AS Edexcl economics revision guide. It is updated for the new syllabus, which will be used for first exam in 2016.
The Edexcel AS revision guide is 108 pages, 20,800 words.
More details here:
The chancellor George Osborne has recently announced a plan to enshrine budget surpluses in law. It is worth noting, that budget surpluses are quite rare in the past 120 years.
The argument of the chancellor is that with national debt ‘unsustainably high’ ...
Readers Question 1. Can Labour be blamed for the economic crisis (i.e. did they really ‘overspend’)? My view is that the global economic crisis is to blame, and that Labour could have spent less but that this is easy to say with the benefit of hindsight.
I don’t think there is ...