May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Helping to Simplify Economics”
Will the UK’s decision to leave the EU cause recession?
The Brexit vote has led to sharp fall in the value of the Pound, at one stage falling to £1 = $1.33 – a fall of over 10%. This will have a significant impact on British firms, consumers and also those outside Europe.
In short:A weak Pound makes foreign goods / ...
If the UK vote to leave the EU, many predict the Pound will fall significantly. Investor George Soros predicted it could be a bigger fall than in 1992 ERM crisis. Soros claims the Pound could fall by up to 20% (BBC) There are different reasons why the Pound ...
Foreign direct investment involves the transfer of funds to be involved in capital investment in a foreign company. For example, if a Japanese firm, like Toyota builds a factory in the UK, this counts as inward investment into the UK.
Foreign direct investment does not include portfolio investment, e.g. Chinese saving ...
I wrote a while back that I was a rather unenthusiastic supporter of remaining in Europe, and perhaps it wasn’t that important. In recent weeks, I have become more committed to staying in Europe, and feeling leaving the EU would be a regressive step.
The EU was formed out of ...
In economics, the framing effect states consumer choices will be influenced by how information is presented.
One of the challenges of an economist is to find correct statistics and present them in a way which offers a meaningful and fair portrayal of the situation.
Everyone has certain political bias and it ...
If you are interested in fiscal impact of net migration, this study “Fiscal effects of immigration to the UK” is worth reading.
Some highlightsEU migrants cost the UK government £408.12 per second in public expenditures, and contribute £463.35 per second in revenue. Of all EU migrants, nearly nine in ten ...
George Osborne has recently stated that leaving the EU could leave a black hole in public finances of £30bn and this would lead to sharp budget cuts – tax rises and spending cuts.
This raises the interesting question of whether you can talk yourself into a recession. Do predictions of
A big issue is how net migration is affecting the National Health Service.Does an influx of migrants place greater strain on the NHS? Is migration a convenient excuse for the more long-term issues facing the NHS? To what extent do migrants work for the NHS? If we cut migration levels would that affect ...
Neoliberalism is a term commonly used to describe free-market economics. Neoliberalism involves policies associated with free trade, privatisation, price deregulation, a reduced size of government and flexible labour markets. Recently, neoliberalism has been associated with the policies of austerity and attempts to reduce budget deficits – usually by cutting government ...