Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
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Economics Help
"Helping to Simplify Economics”
Readers Question: Creating a post recession; what steps should the EU take to reform the banking sector?
I have looked at this important issue in this essay: - Steps to Avoid Financial Crisis
Reforms To The Banking Sector Could Include:Regulation of Mortgage Products
Unconventional Mortgages like 100% mortgages, self-certification, interest only, mortgages ...
Readers Question: how will central bank may increase the supply of money in economy?
The money supply is the total amount of money available in the economy at a particular point in time. A narrow definition of money involves notes and coins. A broader definition includes cash plus bank and building ...
There’s always a fascination with the richest people in the world. Apparantely, according to Forbes, the richest person in the world is now a Mexican called Carlo Slim Helu. According to IMF statistics his wealth of $53.5bn is roughly equal to the GDP of both Sudan $57bn and Slovenia $54bn ...
Readers Question: Hello can you please tell me what the disadvantages of using interest rates would be for the economy?
Interest rates can be both beneficial and damaging for an economy. Essentially it depends on how they are used.
For example, if an economy is overheating (with inflation increasing), a rise in ...
Readers Question: Does growth forecast always corresponds to the mesured growth?
If a bias exist, is it always on the same side?
Recently, growth statistics published on February 26th showed that the GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2009 were a higher than first recorded. GDP grew by 0.3%, ...
Readers Question: Why Do Countries Run Deficits? (what about planned economies) Can an economy function without it if it refused to borrow to smooth out recession or to fund whatever it finds to have a public value worth going into debt for.
Reasons for Deficits include:
1. To Finance Investment in ...
Readers Question: why do most people prefer inflation to deflation ? is it because such guys are business owners and they don’t to earn a little or what ? what about poor people. how can they make ends meet? think properly, think widely, think about the poor first. then i ...
Structural adjustment is a term used to describe the policies requested by the IMF in condition for financial aid when dealing with an economic crisis in. The policies are designed to tackle the root cause of the problem and provide a framework for long term development and long term growth. ...
Problems With Structural Adjustment include:
Policies of tackling inflation. Higher interest rates, higher taxes, often cause a recession and mass unemployment. They are often painful in the short term. This is perhaps the biggest reason why structural adjustment is often very unpopular in the countries where it is ...