September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
"Helping to Simplify Economics”
Many Western economies face a demographic time bomb – an ageing population, which places strain on government spending and the welfare state. To deal with this situation, governments face several difficult choices -Raise taxes to pay for pensions, Shift the emphasis ...
Inflation means a sustained increase in the general price level. However, this increase in the cost of living can be caused by different factors. The main two types of inflation areDemand pull inflation – this occurs when the economy grows quickly ...
I studied PPE at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford university between 1995-99. Quite often people ask me for tips on applying and the interview, so here are a few suggestions.
A look at the pros and cons of Scottish independence from an economic perspective.
It is said you can’t put a price on freedom and cultural identity. But, when it comes to ...
Readers Question: Do you believe the Coalition Government has used the right macroeconomic policies with regards to reducing the budget deficit?
No. I’ve written a few times that I believe the coalition government made a big mistake in prioritising deficit reduction over ...
Readers Question: I was looking for info on housing demand/supply. One area you have no info on is rental trends. There is a lot written about a critical housing shortage in the UK, starting with the Kate Barker review (2004), ...
Readers Question: I understand “externalities” and why certain economic actors will tend to dispute the scale/existence of them. What about the complementary idea, of benefits conferred by many societies which are centrally planned and financed (roads, defence etc.)? Libertarians of any political stripe may downplay/deny their importance though benefitting. My ...
Interesting graph which shows the depth of the EU recession compared to the great depression of the 1930s.
UK recession compared
The European Union is facing the prospect of a serious bout of deflation (or at least, very low rates of inflation / disinflation) Deflation occurs when prices fall. But, very low rates of inflation are considered to raise problems associated ...
Readers Question: Seeing the recent releases of positive UK data come through, I’ve been thinking whether these are signs of a recovery or it is too soon to say. To what extent is the recent run of positive data across sectors ...