May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Question: How will Brexit affect the UK budget deficit / national debt / public finances?
One of the low points of the Brexit campaign was when the chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne announced a vote for Brexit would lead to higher taxes and lower spending straightaway. Dubbed the ‘punishment budget’ ...
The UK national debt is the total amount of money the British government owes to the private sector and other purchasers of UK gilts.In September 2016 Public sector net debt is £1,627.2 billion, or 83.3% of GDP
Source: [1. ONS public sector finances,- HF6X] (page updated October 22nd 2016)
I recently watched a BBC documentary (No place to call home) about Britain’s housing crisis, focusing on a suburb of London (Dagenham). It was an insight into the desperate situation many find themselves in because of a shortage of housing, very high rents and a feeling the council / ...
In recent post, I looked at whether Pound Sterling would have fallen without Brexit vote?
There was a good case to say it was overvalued, but there are a few other factors I’d like to mention.Big Mac index
According to the Big mac index, the Pound wasn’t overvalued at all. In ...
The Brexit vote has led to sharp fall in the value of the Pound, at one stage falling to £1 = $1.22 – a fall of over 15%. This will have a significant impact on British firms, consumers and also those outside Europe.
Apologies for lower posting volume recently. I am writing a book, which will be published some time in 2017. Also, in the past week I have been in New York, which has been a harsh lesson in the impact of a falling value of the Pound. Though fortunately, I earn ...
Monetary policy (mainly interest rates) used to be managed by the government. However, in recent years, there has been a trend to give monetary policy to independent Central Banks. The Central Bank officials are appointed by government and are given broad guidelines (e.g. target low inflation). But, the decisions ...
Readers Question: why some countries are more successful in attracting Foreign Direct Investment than others?
Foreign direct investment (FDI) means companies purchase capital and invest in a foreign country. For example, if a US multinational, such as Nike built a factory for making trainers in Pakistan; this would count as ...
Since the 1970s, we have seen a fall in average global inflation rates. There have been periods of inflation (often due to rise in oil prices), but the overall trend has seen much lower inflation rates. In the 1970s, inflation was seen as one of the main macro-economic challenges, but ...
The lump of labour fallacy is the contention that the amount of work available in an economy is fixed. But, most economists argue this belief there is a fixed number of jobs (or fixed number of hours) is usually incorrect.