Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Economics Help

"Helping to Simplify Economics”


May 6, 2016, 5:23 am, 1633718

Economies are constantly evolving. Industries which once employed many people and were very successful can later become uncompetitive and unprofitable. The UK has seen the rise and fall of many manufacturing industries. Industries such as, cotton, wool, coal and ship-building were once key aspects of the UK economy, employing ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631570
Definition of Household savings ratio: The percentage of disposable income that is saved. (1) Total savings = Disposable income – Household consumption

UK Saving Ratio

Latest UK household savings ratio: Q4 2015 = 3.8% (31 March, 2016)


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631568

The balance of payments is the record of a country’s transactions / trade with the rest of the world.

The balance of payments consists of:

Current Account (trade in goods, services + investment incomes + transfers) Capital Account / Financial Account (capital and financial flows, net investment, portfolio investment) Errors and omissions. It is ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631569

Mercantilism is an economic theory and practise where the government seeks to regulate the economy and trade in order to promote domestic industry – often at the expense of other countries. Mercantilism is associated with policies which restrict imports and foster domestic industries.

Mercantilism stands in contrast to the theory ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631567

At different times there have been campaigns to ‘Buy British’ – patriotic efforts to support the economy. The campaigns seem quite popular, but usually fade ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631566

UK unemployment rates since 1881.

UK unemployment 1881-2015. Source: ONS historical unemployment + ONS

This shows ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631564

Readers question: Will a sustained recovery in the UK lead to inflation?

A sustained economic recovery could lead to inflation. If economic growth is above the long run trend rate for a prolonged period, if demand grows faster than productivity, then in that scenario we are likely to see rising inflation ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631563

In recent years, the UK has seen a more flexible labour market. One phenomena is the growth in self-employed contractors. This category of workers have different rights to employees. Self-employment can be attractive to workers seeking greater flexibility. But, there is also concern firms are using the categorisation of  self-employment ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631561

In 1967, the UK government of Harold Wilson devalued the Pound from $2.80 to $2.40 (a devaluation of 14%). It was a major political event because the government had tried hard to avoid a devaluation, but felt forced into the decision because of a trade deficit, a weak domestic economy ...


April 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1631562

A look at different aspects of UK economic history, concentrating on the different decades of the Twenty and Twenty-First Century. Includes histories of particular sectors, such as housing and the coal industry.

The economy of the 1920s – a legacy of war debt, deflation and life under the gold standard