Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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macroblog

"The Atlanta Fed’s macroblog provides commentary on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, financial issues and Southeast regional trends.

Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig and other Atlanta Fed economists.”


April 19, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1739198

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has had an explicit inflation target ...


April 11, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1736890

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In the aftermath of the Great Recession, labor force attachment declined. However, that pattern has been reversing itself lately. In particular, the labor force ...


March 30, 2017, 1:23 pm, 1733404

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The amount of debt held by U.S. households grew steadily during the 2000s, with some leveling off after the recession. However, the level of ...


March 20, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1730230

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Self-employment as a person's primary labor market activity has become much less commonplace in the United States (for example, see the analysis


March 2, 2017, 11:23 am, 1725067

Recent consumer sentiment index measures have hit postrecession highs, but there is evidence of significant differences in respondents' views on the new administration's economic policies. As Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Michigan Survey of Consumers,


February 28, 2017, 1:23 pm, 1724260

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One of the most vexing developments of the current expansion has been the long and persistent reduction in the pace of business fixed investment ...


February 23, 2017, 9:23 am, 1722616

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The Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker slipped to 3.2 percent in January from 3.5 percent in December. The Wage Growth Tracker for women was ...


February 21, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1721954

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The U-3 unemployment rate has returned to prerecession levels and is close to estimates of its longer-run sustainable level. Yet other indicators of slack, ...


February 13, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1719416

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Though it ticked up slightly in January , the U.S. unemployment rate is arguably at, or near, its long-run ...


February 7, 2017, 1:23 pm, 1717498

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the advance estimate from the U.S. ...