May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Magda Szubanksi said she would consider leaving Australia if the Productivity Commission’s recommendations regarding parallel importing of books were to come into place. Leaving aside the notion that leaving Australia would make absolutely no positive difference to her income with or without Australia’s ...
In a previous post I outlined a way of thinking about higher education financing that does not break the HECS income contingent loans model and does not break the government’s budget. I proposed a small change to the way things are presently done that seems obvious from a theoretical view ...
The government has put changes to higher education funding on the back burner. This precaution is prudent since as it happens any changes to the income contingent loan system that we have presently are likely to have consequences that are difficult to anticipate. Basically, one would need to model the ...
The players and their alleged actions
Lest you have lived under a huge rock for the last couple of weeks, you will have heard about that German comedian (Boehmermann) who in his tv show dared to insult Turkish president Erdogan with a rather (c)rude poem in which assertions were made ...
As the old adage has it, before it gets better it will get worse.
Three interesting recent exhibits:
The last couple of weeks we ...
The spate of `Islamist’ violence recently perpetrated by individual people is a puzzle for mainstream economics. In the world of rational agents intent on maximizing their wealth, the destruction of human or material resources is only sensible when that destruction provides a direct competitive advantage. Why then would Homo Economicus ...
It’s pretty obvious what’s going to happen this coming Tuesday. Or maybe already in a couple of hours.
That is, if there is some rational decision making going on and the key people have thought through the whole game tree, endgames included. Abbott has done himself in irreversibly, starting with ...
[this was first posted on Clubtroppo 9 days ago. Since everything went to script after that, the text below is unchanged]
After two weeks of a new government in Greece, a Greek exit from the Euro (termed a ‘Grexit’) looks more and more likely. The betting markets give it about 30% ...
Possibly and so I am putting the question out there in the hopes a journalist might investigate.
But first some context. In 2013, Redzo Mujcic and Paul Frijters (a frequent blogger here) published a study demonstrating unconscious discrimination on the part of bus drivers in ...