Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Core Economics

"Commentary on economics, strategy and more”


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603153

Middle-East watchers have been surprised by the events in Syria and Egypt the last 2 years. The betting markets in 2011 and 2012 expected the collapse of the Syrian regime, but it didn’t happen. The West and most Al-Jazeera commentators thought the coup that deposed the Morsi-government was unsustainable and ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603154

In a recent article published in The Journal of Economic Perspectives (Vol 28. Nr 3, summer 2014), Conley & Oender follow up on an earlier paper published the year before with others in Economic Inquiry.

In their earlier contribution, drawing on a panel dataset of 14,271 individuals that were awarded ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603155

In a recent working paper which has received considerable play on social and other media (and is allegedly forthcoming in The Journal of Economic Perspectives next year), a sociologist called Marion Fourcade and two French economists (Algan, Ollion, the former a research fellow at the CNRS of the University ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603152

It’s the time of the mid-year Economic Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) and we’re told that we’re about 11 billion deeper in the red this financial year than we thought, with the treasurer blaming the dropping iron price and the reduced wage growth. I have gone over the MYEFO documents (which ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603151

A couple of days before Christmas 2014, Environment Minister Greg Hunt – he who rather consults Wikipedia than rely on the considerable in-house expertise at his fingertips – published data that seemed to show that  during the second year of its existence the carbon price (often falsely called a ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603148

[this was first posted on Clubtroppo 9 days ago. Since everything went to script after that, the text below is unchanged]

After two weeks of a new government in Greece, a Greek exit from the Euro (termed a ‘Grexit’) looks more and more likely. The betting markets give it about 30% ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603147

Possibly and so I am putting the question out there in the hopes a journalist might investigate.

But first some context. In 2013, Redzo Mujcic and Paul Frijters (a frequent blogger here) published a study demonstrating unconscious discrimination on the part of bus drivers in ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603149

It’s pretty obvious what’s going to happen this coming Tuesday. Or maybe already in a couple of hours.

That is, if there is some rational decision making going on and the key people have thought through the whole game tree, endgames included. Abbott has done himself in irreversibly, starting with ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603150

The spate of `Islamist’ violence recently perpetrated by individual people is a puzzle for mainstream economics. In the world of rational agents intent on maximizing their wealth, the destruction of human or material resources is only sensible when that destruction provides a direct competitive advantage. Why then would Homo Economicus ...


January 28, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1603135

The Greek referendum and the hype leading up to it have gone exactly according to my script of 8 days ago, where I predicted a resounding ‘no’ vote and a Grexit to stop the bank-run, with the other European politicians too offended and belittled by Tsipras and Varoufakis to ...