Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Core Economics

"Commentary on economics, strategy and more”


August 1, 2015, 11:23 am, 1520054

For those of us outside the US, the Trump entry into the US Presidential race so many months out from the actual election has been entertainment heaven. Sure, he is destroying the fabric of a great nation by bring ...


July 14, 2015, 5:23 am, 1508691

The deal yesterday morning between the Greek PM and the Eurozone Finance ministers is an agreement to reform before talks. By tomorrow evening, the Greek parliament has to accept 4 pieces of legislation on a large range of issues (pensions, labour markets, taxation), after which the other 19 Eurozone ...


July 5, 2015, 11:23 pm, 1503932

The Greek referendum and the hype leading up to it have gone exactly according to my script of 8 days ago, where I predicted a resounding ‘no’ vote and a Grexit to stop the bank-run, with the other European politicians too offended and belittled by Tsipras and Varoufakis to ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502935

I am glad this has been finally made public:

Academic who revealed Australian bus driver racism ‘victimised’

It has been a source of great concern for me because I care about the University of Queensland. It has been a source of great personal embarrassment because that was the place where ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502934

Joshua Gans asked yesterday whether UQ suppressed the Mujcic/Frijters working paper on racism. In the comments to that piece, the possibility has been raised implicitly that the paper might have been suppressed because its authors employed unethical or illegal tactics in conducting their research.

Two main concerns are raised. Let’s take them in ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502936

Possibly and so I am putting the question out there in the hopes a journalist might investigate.

But first some context. In 2013, Redzo Mujcic and Paul Frijters (a frequent blogger here) published a study demonstrating unconscious discrimination on the part of bus drivers in ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502931

Education Minister Christopher Pyne is concerned that some universities are educating students who do not repay their HECS debt:

Universities churning out graduates who do not repay their student debts would face financial penalties under a proposal by Education Minister Christopher Pyne aimed at securing Senate support for ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502930

Over the last 15-20 years academic school meetings have gone from rambling and unstructured brawls to dull “executive infomercials”. The former led to marathon meetings. The current model has led to a middle-management culture that often does not take advantage of the very valuable specialists skills of talented, highly trained ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502932

[The following contribution is the unedited version of the comment that The Australian published today under a different title. The Australian is pay-walled, so I put the draft here, with a few links added for good measure. For the record, I prefer the headline that I proposed … ]

Two years ...


July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502933

Those following the exploding story about Paul Frijters’ research on racism and UQ’s subsequent reaction to it might wonder, as I did: what exactly is in the “public interest disclosure” referred to in media reports (e.g., http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb
/27/university-suppressed-study-into-racism-on-bus
es-and-victimised-its-co-author)?

To satisfy your curiosity, I’ve written below a summary brief of the core allegations ...