Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Core Economics

"Commentary on economics, strategy and more”

October 21, 2014, 9:23 am, 1354743

Gough Whitlam was the first prime minister I was aware of. Actually, I recalled yesterday that I had seen every Australian Prime Minister since (up until the current one) in the flesh. What other country is that possible?

I saw Whitlam for the first time, in the flesh as it were, ...

October 13, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1350443

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2014 has gone to Jean Tirole, the superstar of the game theory revolution in industrial organization and corporate finance, “for his analysis of market power and regulation” so the official one- line prize motivation.

Tirole, albeit young ...

October 1, 2014, 5:23 am, 1344227

Economics is an intellectually challenging and socially relevant area of study. According to the Hamilton project studying economics gives you a better shot at striking it rich. Here are some nice figures that illustrate the point:

September 18, 2014, 1:23 am, 1336906

Today the people residing in Scotland can decide whether they want to see an independent Scotland or to have Scotland remain in the UK. The betting markets concur with the opinion polls and favour the status quo: the markets give roughly 20% chance that the ‘yes’ vote will win ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335375

Last week I did an interview with Phil Dobbie for CommsDay on the ACCC’s approach to the setting of rates that carriers pay each other to terminate calls. I argued — as I did 15 years ago — that marginal cost rather than Total Service Long-Run ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335376

In a forthcoming article (downloadable here) in Research Policy (according to the 2013 ranking of the Australian Business Deans Council an A*journal), Sarah Necker of the University of Freiburg, Germany, reports the results of a study on fraudulent and questionable research practices in economics.  The study is ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335374

After slamming the last Government for not doing a cost-benefit analysis on the NBN, Malcolm Turnbull has produced the goods. My view on cost-benefit analysis remains unchanged: if you have already decided what to do, a cost-benefit analysis is of no help except for vindication.

Nonetheless, there is another unintended consequence ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335371

As economists, it’s easy to for us to argue that our models account more than those of any other social science for the fundamental importance of need satisfaction in creating healthy societies. The pursuit of his own need satisfaction is at the heart of our model of the individual economic ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335372

One of the more shameful acts of recent years was the failure of successive Australian governments to put in place marriage equality. Now it looks like the United States will get there first.

To underscore this I commandJudge Posner’s decisionthe other day striking down the Wisconsin and Indiana ...

September 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1335373

Kwanghui Limposted a link to this post from Cloudfareon what they pay for transit around the world. As you will see from this table, Australia is the most expensive region — by a long, long way.

And ...