Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Core Economics

"Commentary on economics, strategy and more”

March 26, 2015, 1:23 am, 1445483

Over the last 15-20 years academic school meetings have gone from rambling and unstructured brawls to dull “executive infomercials”. The former led to marathon meetings. The current model has led to a middle-management culture that often does not take advantage of the very valuable specialists skills of talented, highly trained ...

March 18, 2015, 9:23 pm, 1441724

Education Minister Christopher Pyne is concerned that some universities are educating students who do not repay their HECS debt:

Universities churning out graduates who do not repay their student debts would face financial penalties under a proposal by Education Minister Christopher Pyne aimed at securing Senate support for ...

March 3, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1432810

[The following contribution is the unedited version of the comment that The Australian published today under a different title. The Australian is pay-walled, so I put the draft here, with a few links added for good measure. For the record, I prefer the headline that I proposed … ]

Two years ...

March 1, 2015, 7:23 pm, 1431355

Those following the exploding story about Paul Frijters’ research on racism and UQ’s subsequent reaction to it might wonder, as I did: what exactly is in the “public interest disclosure” referred to in media reports (e.g.,

To satisfy your curiosity, I’ve written below a summary brief of the core allegations ...

February 26, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1429856

I am glad this has been finally made public:

Academic who revealed Australian bus driver racism ‘victimised’

It has been a source of great concern for me because I care about the University of Queensland. It has been a source of great personal embarrassment because that was the place where ...

February 26, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1429855

Joshua Gans asked yesterday whether UQ suppressed the Mucic/Frijters working paper on racism. In the comments to that piece, the possibility has been raised implicitly that the paper might have been suppressed because its authors employed unethical or illegal tactics in conducting their research.

Two main concerns are raised. Let’s take them in ...

February 24, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1428099

Possibly and so I am putting the question out there in the hopes a journalist might investigate.

But first some context. In 2013, Redzo Mujcic and Paul Frijters (a frequent blogger here) published a study demonstrating unconscious discrimination on the part of bus drivers in ...

February 19, 2015, 9:23 pm, 1425699

[this was first posted on Clubtroppo 9 days ago. Since everything went to script after that, the text below is unchanged]

After two weeks of a new government in Greece, a Greek exit from the Euro (termed a ‘Grexit’) looks more and more likely. The betting markets give it about 30% ...

February 8, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1418592

It’s pretty obvious what’s going to happen this coming Tuesday. Or maybe already in a couple of hours.

That is, if there is some rational decision making going on and the key people have thought through the whole game tree, endgames included. Abbott has done himself in irreversibly, starting with ...

January 11, 2015, 11:23 pm, 1402532

The spate of `Islamist’ violence recently perpetrated by individual people is a puzzle for mainstream economics. In the world of rational agents intent on maximizing their wealth, the destruction of human or material resources is only sensible when that destruction provides a direct competitive advantage. Why then would Homo Economicus ...