Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Core Economics

"Commentary on economics, strategy and more”

November 27, 2015, 7:23 pm, 1582917

Apple Pay is near ubiquitous in the US despite the relative lack of terminals to support them. But in Australia, those terminals are all over the place yet the only card accepted on Apple Pay is American Express; a card not issued by the major banks.


For those who don’t know, ...

November 27, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1582873

I have been back in Australia this past week for the first time in over three years. Here are some brief impressions:

The airports are great. Even better than before, Security is no issue (I passed through in 30 seconds) and Canberra airport is now fantastic — world class as they ...

September 17, 2015, 1:23 am, 1545109

An issue that has perplexed me over the last few weeks is why do the top universities in Australia continue teaching Australian undergraduates when the fees they get from these undergraduates are far lower than foreign fees. Further, there is no doubt in my mind that given the intense competition ...

September 12, 2015, 11:23 pm, 1543102

Students brainstorming during the MBS Innovation Bootcamp

Australia performed poorly in the global startup ecosystem ranking 2015 which was published recently ( Sydney fell 4 ...

September 2, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1538135

And mass online education cannot replace the lecture

I am set to debate Marnie Hughes-Warrington about the future of lectures. Marnie presumably will be advocating the view that the days of the lecture are done. My view is that undoubtedly, the lecture is an institution within great universities that is ...

August 1, 2015, 11:23 am, 1520054

For those of us outside the US, the Trump entry into the US Presidential race so many months out from the actual election has been entertainment heaven. Sure, he is destroying the fabric of a great nation by bring ...

July 14, 2015, 5:23 am, 1508691

The deal yesterday morning between the Greek PM and the Eurozone Finance ministers is an agreement to reform before talks. By tomorrow evening, the Greek parliament has to accept 4 pieces of legislation on a large range of issues (pensions, labour markets, taxation), after which the other 19 Eurozone ...

July 5, 2015, 11:23 pm, 1503932

The Greek referendum and the hype leading up to it have gone exactly according to my script of 8 days ago, where I predicted a resounding ‘no’ vote and a Grexit to stop the bank-run, with the other European politicians too offended and belittled by Tsipras and Varoufakis to ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502931

Education Minister Christopher Pyne is concerned that some universities are educating students who do not repay their HECS debt:

Universities churning out graduates who do not repay their student debts would face financial penalties under a proposal by Education Minister Christopher Pyne aimed at securing Senate support for ...

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1502930

Over the last 15-20 years academic school meetings have gone from rambling and unstructured brawls to dull “executive infomercials”. The former led to marathon meetings. The current model has led to a middle-management culture that often does not take advantage of the very valuable specialists skills of talented, highly trained ...