Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.


November 16, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1372459
Below the fold is a recent Twitter discussion I had with David Andolfatto and Noah Smith on Neo-Fisherism. The big takeaway from this conversation is that we all view the expected path of the consolidated government balance sheet as being a key determinant for current aggregate demand growth. ...


September 22, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1339261
Paul Krugman and Josh Barro are going after conservatives for their "new love affair with Canada". They claim conservatives are incorrect to view Canada's successful fiscal consolidation in the 1990s as evidence of  "expansionary austerity." Here is Krugman:

Canadian austerity in the ...


September 1, 2014, 11:23 am, 1327483
Is the U.S. economy in the midst of another bond  market "conundrum"? The last time we had one was in 2005 when former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan became perplexed over long-term interest rates failing to rise with the tightening of monetary policy. Some observers see something similar ...


August 24, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1323778
It is hard not to be cynical when you see charts like this one. It shows what appears to be a systematic relationship over the past 6 years between changes in the Fed share of marketable treasuries and PCE core inflation:


August 22, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1323217
I recently gave a talk to the Financial Planning Association of Kentucky. The slides from the presentation are below and readers of this blog with be familiar with many of them. In case you are not familiar, below is the slide outline and where to go for more ...


August 15, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1319545
Speaking of secular stagnation, it appears to be catching on at the Fed. Here is CNBC's Alex Rosenberg:

Is there something seriously wrong with the economy?

It's a scary prospect, and a concern that's gotten louder and louder over the past year. In ...


August 15, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1319478
There is a new VoxEU ebook on secular stagnation. The book is a collection of essays by many prominent economists, most of whom are proponents of secular stagnation. As readers know, I am not convinced that this problem lingers over the U.S. economy and have explained why ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312155
Has the ECB finally ended its hard-money ways? You know the kind that raises interest rates twice during the crisis, allows aggregate demand in the periphery to stall, and fosters below-trend growth in money supply and money velocity. On Thursday, the ECB said it would ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312153
The Bank for International Setttlements (BIS) released its annual report today. It calls for central banks in advanced economies to begin tightening monetary policy to ward off the buildup of financial imbalances. This is great advice if it were 2002. But it is 2014 and advanced economies ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312154
Must private-sector debt crisis necessarily lead to sharp recessions? Are impaired household balance sheets the reason for the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Eurozone crisis? For many observers the answer is an unequivocal yes. People acquired mortgages based on unrealistic expectations about future income streams from ...