Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.


August 22, 2016, 9:23 am, 1666484


My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Doug Irwin. Doug is a professor of economics at Dartmouth College, a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, and former staff member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. Doug ...


August 18, 2016, 1:23 am, 1665433
Don't look now, but the Fed is quietly unwinding QE. As seen in the figure below, the Fed's share of marketable treasuries has been shrinking:


August 16, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1664947
Nominal demand is a shadow of its former self. In the past, it averaged near 5% annual growth but has struggled ever since the crisis. The figures below illustrate this on a per capita basis for aggregate demand and domestic demand growth. 


August 16, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1664904
Nominal demand is a shadow of its former self. In the past, it averaged near 5% annual growth but has struggled ever since the crisis. The figures below illustrate this on a per capita basis for aggregate demand and domestic demand growth. 


August 15, 2016, 9:23 am, 1664393
 
My latest Macro Musings is with Nick Rowe. Nick is  is a professor of economics at Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. He also is a member of the CD Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council and of the Centre for Monetary and Financial ...


August 8, 2016, 11:23 am, 1662151

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Jason Taylor. Jason is a professor of economics at Central Michigan University and is editor-in-chief of the journal Essays in Economic & Business History. He has ...


August 1, 2016, 9:23 am, 1659509

My latest macro musings podcast is with Brad DeLong. Brad is a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a former deputy assistant secretary of ...


July 25, 2016, 9:23 am, 1656810


My latest Macro Musings podcast is with David Andolfatto. David is a vice president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and a professor of economics at Simon Fraser University. He has published widely in the area of monetary economics and ...


July 20, 2016, 3:24 pm, 1655469
The Wall Street Journal reports Fed officials are once again signaling their desire to raise interest rates: 

Federal Reserve officials are looking more confidently toward an interest-rate increase before year-end, possibly as early as September, now that financial markets have stabilized after Britain’s vote to ...


July 18, 2016, 9:23 am, 1654562

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Robert Hall. Bob is a professor of economics at Stanford University. He is the former president of the American Economic Association, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a fellow of the Econometric ...