Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.


April 21, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1740005
†My latest Macro Musings podcast is with James Bullard. James is the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and an accomplished economic scholar. He joined me for a great conversation on macroeconomics that covered everything from the determinants ...


April 14, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1738032
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Tyler Cowen. Tyler is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He joined me to discuss his new book, The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream. In it, Tyler ...


April 11, 2017, 11:23 am, 1736741


My latest Macro Musings podcast is with George Selgin. George the director of the Cato‚Äôs Institute for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a former professor of economics at the University of Georgia.†

†George joined me ...


April 3, 2017, 11:23 pm, 1734626
Over at U.S. News and World Report, I have a new article up on the next big challenge facing the Fed: normalizing its balance sheet. Some excerpts:

This path to monetary policy normalization.... may be fraught with surprises and setbacks. Not only must the ...


March 31, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1733907


My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Steve Hanke. Steve is s a professor of applied economics at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. He has advised many governments on economic policy, including helping the establishment of new currency regimes ...


March 27, 2017, 1:23 am, 1731906

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Jeffrey Frankel. Jeff is a professor and economist at Harvard University and directs the program on international finance and macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Jeff joined ...


March 17, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1729716

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Jason Furman. Jason is currently a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, Jason spent eight years serving on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, including the chair position from 2013-2017. ...


March 17, 2017, 1:23 pm, 1729634
I have a new article†at The Hill that responds to some of the buzz created †by the Cecchetti et al. (2017) paper that was delivered at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum:

What causes inflation? Most people believe inflation is caused by central banks ...


March 10, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1727670
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Larry White. Larry is a professor of economics at George Mason University where he specializes in monetary economics and monetary history.
Larry joined me to talk about India's demonetization's efforts and ...


March 3, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1725591

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Tim Duy. Tim is a professor of economics at the University of Oregon, a columnist for Bloomberg, and a former economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury.†
Tim is also a ...