Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

September 26, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1678612

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Morgan Ricks. Morgan is a law professor at Vanderbilt University where he specializes in financial regulation. Between 2009 and 2010, he was a senior policy adviser at the U.S. Treasury Department where  he ...

September 21, 2016, 9:23 am, 1677293
The New Abenomics ProgramThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) just launched a new phase in its monetary easing program popularly known as Abenomics. It is doing so in the hopes of shoring up economic growth. This monetary program until today had involved a targeted expansion of the ...

September 19, 2016, 11:23 am, 1676606

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Ryan Avent. Ryan is a columnist at The Economist magazine. He has previously been the news editor, economics correspondent, and online economics editor for The Economist. He is the author ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674763
It is 'recession watch' time again. The May jobs report seems to have awakened the dormant recession concerns that emerged earlier in the year. See, for example, Josh Zumbrun, Jeff Spros, Edward Harrison, and Sam Ro. I was one of those observers who was concerned about a ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674762
So yields on Germany's 10-year government bonds have gone negative. Put differently, investors are now paying the German government to take and hold their funds for ten years!  Many are blaming this development on Brexit fears and the ECB's bond buying program. While this is ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674764

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Lars Christensen, an internationally renowned Danish economist and Senior Fellow at London’s Adam Smith Institute. Lars joined me to discuss the Eurozone crisis and the current challenges facing the international money system.

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674759
Scott Sumner is right. Brexit is the biggest global monetary shock since 2008. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Here is why.
First, Brexit is adding further strength to an already ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674758
 My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Will Luther, assistant professor of economics at Kenyon College and an adjunct scholar with Cato's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. Will joins me to discuss the origins of ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674760
The Brexit vote is upon us and most polls show a race that is too close to call. Much ink has been spilled debating this historic vote as well as trying to explain why it emerged in the first place. Most of the analysis on the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1674761

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Bob Hetzel. Bob is a senior economist and research advisor at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank where he has worked since 1975. He joined me to discuss the rise of monetarism and how Milton Friedman, ...