Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

May 1, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1631903
The Eurozone experienced a second recession in 2011-2012, just a few years after the first one in 2008-2009. This second downturn was the fatal blow that turned Europe's Great Recession into an outright depression. The standard explanation for the emergence of this second recession is the sovereign debt ...

April 25, 2016, 11:23 am, 1629684

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with John Cochrane, a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago. In this week's episode ...

April 18, 2016, 7:23 am, 1627520

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with John Taylor of Stanford University. It was an interesting conversation throughout and we covered a lot of ground. We talked about the Taylor ...

April 11, 2016, 1:23 am, 1625388

Today is the launch of a new podcast series on macroeconomics calledMacro Musingand I am privileged to be the host. Each week, with the help of a special guest, we will get to explore in depth ...

April 6, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1624408

The safe asset shortage problem is back. Actually, it never went away but drifted into the background as the symptoms of this problem--sluggish growth and low ...

March 16, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1618430
I have a a couple of pieces out this week on the Fed. The first is an article in Politico on the Fed's influence on the global economy. Here are some excerpts:

Through both its policy actions and its written words, the Federal Reserve has mistakenly ...

March 10, 2016, 5:23 am, 1616556

Today is a big day for the ECB. Mario Draghi and other monetary officials are expected to add further ...

March 9, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1616392
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says yes (my bold):

The International Monetary Fund is sounding louder and louder alarms about the state of the global economy. The problem is, few major economies seem to be hearing them.

“The IMF’s latest reading of the ...

February 24, 2016, 9:23 am, 1611689
Over at FT Alphaville, I argue the Fed is not ready for the next recession:

Whether or not a recession actually occurs, one thing is certain. The Fed in its current form is not well equipped to handle another downturn. The Fed’s inability over the past ...

February 22, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1610965
Why have oil prices declined so sharply since mid-2014? For many observers the answer is obvious: there has been a surge in global oil production and it has pushed down oil prices. It is hard to argue oil supply has not been important, but the ...