Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.


July 1, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1650305
Okay, so Brexit may not be the biggest money demand shock since 2008. Global equity markets, as noted by Kelly Evans, have regained much of their losses since the Brexit vote. Also, the initial surge in the trade-weighted dollar that had me worried appears to have ...


June 27, 2016, 9:23 am, 1648769
 My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Will Luther, assistant professor of economics at Kenyon College and an adjunct scholar with Cato's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. Will joins me to discuss the origins of ...


June 24, 2016, 3:23 am, 1648084
Scott Sumner is right. Brexit is the biggest global monetary shock since 2008. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Here is why.
First, Brexit is adding further strength to an already ...


June 23, 2016, 1:24 am, 1647743
The Brexit vote is upon us and most polls show a race that is too close to call. Much ink has been spilled debating this historic vote as well as trying to explain why it emerged in the first place. Most of the analysis on the ...


June 20, 2016, 7:23 am, 1646766

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Bob Hetzel. Bob is a senior economist and research advisor at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank where he has worked since 1975. He joined me to discuss the rise of monetarism and how Milton Friedman, ...


June 15, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1645672
So yields on Germany's 10-year government bonds have gone negative. Put differently, investors are now paying the German government to take and hold their funds for ten years!  Many are blaming this development on Brexit fears and the ECB's bond buying program. While this is ...


June 14, 2016, 9:23 am, 1645222
It is 'recession watch' time again. The May jobs report seems to have awakened the dormant recession concerns that emerged earlier in the year. See, for example, Josh Zumbrun, Jeff Spros, Edward Harrison, and Sam Ro. I was one of those observers who was concerned about a ...


June 13, 2016, 9:23 am, 1644863
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Lars Christensen, an internationally renowned Danish economist and Senior Fellow at London’s Adam Smith Institute. Lars joined me to discuss the Eurozone crisis and the current challenges facing the international money system.


June 10, 2016, 9:23 pm, 1644522
Folks are talking 'recession watch' again. See, for example, Josh Zumbrun, Jeff Spros, Edward Harrison, and Sam Ro. The weak job report for May seems to have rekindled the recessions concerns that emerged earlier in the year. I was one of those observers who was ...


June 6, 2016, 9:23 am, 1642892
 
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Josh Hendrickson, assistant professor of economics at the University of Mississippi. Josh and I sit down for a wonky and fascinating discussion of the role of money in monetary economics.