Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

May 23, 2016, 9:23 am, 1638966
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with George Selgin, director of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. We discuss in depth Selgin's call for a a Productivity Norm, a nominal income target for central banks that ...

May 17, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1637477
A few weeks ago I attended a conference on international monetary stability at Stanford's Hoover Institute. It was an interesting conference that John Taylor nicely summarizes here. I was fortunate enough to present one of the papers at the conference and got great feedback on it. The paper, coauthored ...

May 16, 2016, 9:23 am, 1636879
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Ramesh Ponnuru. Ramesh is a National Review senior editor, Bloomberg view columnist, and a Visiting Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Ramesh has written widely on many topics from health care ...

May 9, 2016, 9:23 am, 1634640

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Miles Kimball, professor of economies at the University of Michigan and blogger at "Confessions of a Supply-Side Liberal". Miles is a ...

May 2, 2016, 7:23 am, 1632025

My latest Macro Musings Podcast is with Cardiff Garcia, U.S. senior editor of  FT Alphaville and host of the podcast FT Alphachat. After ...

May 1, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1631903
The Eurozone experienced a second recession in 2011-2012, just a few years after the first one in 2008-2009. This second downturn was the fatal blow that turned Europe's Great Recession into an outright depression. The standard explanation for the emergence of this second recession is the sovereign debt ...

April 25, 2016, 11:23 am, 1629684

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with John Cochrane, a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution and former professor of finance at the University of Chicago. In this week's episode ...

April 18, 2016, 7:23 am, 1627520

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with John Taylor of Stanford University.  It was an interesting conversation throughout and we covered a lot of ground. We talked about the Taylor ...

April 11, 2016, 1:23 am, 1625388

Today is the launch of a new podcast series on macroeconomics called Macro Musing and I am privileged to be the host. Each week, with the help of a special guest, we will get to explore in depth ...

April 6, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1624408

The safe asset shortage problem is back. Actually, it never went away but drifted into the background as the symptoms of this problem--sluggish growth and low ...