Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

January 13, 2017, 1:23 pm, 1710388

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Allan Meltzer. Allan is a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a well-known monetarist and author of the authoritative multi-volume history of ...

January 6, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1708385

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Ylan Muy of the Washington Post. She was the Fed beat reporter for several years and now covers economic policy at the White House. She joined me to discuss what it was like covering ...

December 23, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1705188
My latest Macro Musings podcast is a special holiday edition on the economics of Christmas.Two special guests joined me all the way from Germany to discuss this topic. My first guest was Anna Goeddeke, a professor of economics at ESB Business School ...

December 19, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1703954
One more quick note on the Trump shock and interest rates. For some time I have been following the global safe asset shortage problem and how it has created a downward march of safe assets interest rates. This can be seen in the figure below:

December 16, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1703336
I have a new piece in The Hill where I argue markets are increasingly seeing the Trump shock as an inflection point for the U.S. economy:

It seems the U.S. economy is finally poised for robust economic growth, something that has been missing for the ...

December 16, 2016, 11:23 am, 1703210

My latest  Macro Musings podcast is special one where we look at the macroeconomics of Star Wars and Star Trek. We do so with the help of two guests who are experts on the economics of these two scifi franchises. 

December 5, 2016, 11:23 am, 1699839

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Peter Conti-Brown. Peter is a financial historian and legal scholar at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also the author of a new book The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve ...

December 2, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1699366

One of the big questions going into 2017 is how resilient the global economy will be to a further strengthening of the dollar. The Trump shock and the Fed's desire ...

November 29, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1698392
The Mercatus Center is running a colloquium on the low interest rate environment and its implications for the economy. The colloquium runs twelve days and each day a new essay will be published. Since this is leading up to the holidays, some are calling it the "twelve days ...

November 28, 2016, 11:23 am, 1697863

My latest Macro Musings Podcast is with JP Koning. JP is an economist who works in the Canadian financial industry and is a walking encyclopedia on the institutional details of central banks and money. He runs a ...