Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

July 25, 2016, 9:23 am, 1656810

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with David Andolfatto. David is a vice president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and a professor of economics at Simon Fraser University. He has published widely in the area of monetary economics and ...

July 20, 2016, 3:24 pm, 1655469
The Wall Street Journal reports Fed officials are once again signaling their desire to raise interest rates: 

Federal Reserve officials are looking more confidently toward an interest-rate increase before year-end, possibly as early as September, now that financial markets have stabilized after Britain’s vote to ...

July 18, 2016, 9:23 am, 1654562

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Robert Hall. Bob is a professor of economics at Stanford University. He is the former president of the American Economic Association, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a fellow of the Econometric ...

July 11, 2016, 11:23 am, 1652623

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Mark Thoma of the University of Oregon, the Fiscal Times, and CBS Money. Mark is also the author of Economist's View, one of the original and premier blogs covering macroeconomic issues. 

July 4, 2016, 9:23 am, 1650713

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Joe Gagnon of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Joe is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics and formerly worked for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as an ...

July 1, 2016, 5:23 pm, 1650305
Okay, so Brexit may not be the biggest money demand shock since 2008. Global equity markets, as noted by Kelly Evans, have regained much of their losses since the Brexit vote. Also, the initial surge in the trade-weighted dollar that had me worried appears to have ...

June 27, 2016, 9:23 am, 1648769
 My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Will Luther, assistant professor of economics at Kenyon College and an adjunct scholar with Cato's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. Will joins me to discuss the origins of ...

June 24, 2016, 3:23 am, 1648084
Scott Sumner is right. Brexit is the biggest global monetary shock since 2008. This could be the tipping point that turns the existing global slowdown of 2016 into a global recession. Here is why.
First, Brexit is adding further strength to an already ...

June 23, 2016, 1:24 am, 1647743
The Brexit vote is upon us and most polls show a race that is too close to call. Much ink has been spilled debating this historic vote as well as trying to explain why it emerged in the first place. Most of the analysis on the ...

June 20, 2016, 7:23 am, 1646766

My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Bob Hetzel. Bob is a senior economist and research advisor at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank where he has worked since 1975. He joined me to discuss the rise of monetarism and how Milton Friedman, ...