Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

December 2, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1699366

One of the big questions going into 2017 is how resilient the global economy will be to a further strengthening of the dollar. The Trump shock and the Fed's desire ...

November 29, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1698392
The Mercatus Center is running a colloquium on the low interest rate environment and its implications for the economy. The colloquium runs twelve days and each day a new essay will be published. Since this is leading up to the holidays, some are calling it the "twelve days ...

November 28, 2016, 11:23 am, 1697863

My latest Macro Musings Podcast is with JP Koning. JP is an economist who works in the Canadian financial industry and is a walking encyclopedia on the institutional details of central banks and money. He runs a ...

November 25, 2016, 9:23 am, 1697317

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Mark Calabria of the Cato Institute. We discussed his time doing financial regulation and Fed policy as a senior staffer on the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. We ...

November 15, 2016, 9:23 am, 1694359

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Roger Farmer. Roger is a Professor of Economics at UCLA. He joined me to discuss his latest book, Prosperity for All: How to Prevent Financial Crises
This was ...

November 8, 2016, 11:23 am, 1691919
Back in September I was part of the Monetary Policy Rules for a Post-Crisis World conference. It was jointly hosted by the Mercatus Center and the Cato Institute. There were many interesting presentations from folks like David Laidler, Perry Merhling, Robert Hetzel, Miles Kimball, Peter Ireland, John ...

November 7, 2016, 9:23 am, 1691293
 My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Mark Koyama. Mark is an assistant professor of economics at George Mason University where he specializes in economic history, the roles institutions play in economics, and how culture and economics interact. Mark ...

October 31, 2016, 11:23 am, 1688672

My latest podcast is with Rudiger Bachmann. Rudi is an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame and a research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research. Rudi has published widely on macroeconomic issues in top ...

October 30, 2016, 1:23 am, 1688240
Bloomberg is reporting that Zimbabwe might be up to some monetary mischief. The government is once again printing currency and, as first noted by JP Koning, the way they are doing it seems dubious. So, as a reminder to the government of Zimbabwe, it might ...

October 28, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1687896
I have a new working paper with Josh Hendrickson titled Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field. Using a standard New Keynesian model, Josh and I show one of the advantages of a nominal GDP target is that it is more robust ...