Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.

Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

October 2, 2018, 5:07 pm, 1904347

Tim Duy reports that r-star, which rose to prominence over the past few years, is experiencing a Caesar-like betrayal at the Fed:

The Federal Reserve’s “r-star” ...

September 21, 2018, 1:27 pm, 1901517
The quote in the title should be the motto for the 2018-2019 FOMC. For the FOMC is set to raise its interest rate target next week and expected to raise it several times more in 2019 despite a flattening treasury yield curve.

September 17, 2018, 8:08 am, 1899922
In anearlier post and Bridge article, I discussed some ways to use nominal GDP (NGDP) as a cross-check on the FOMC "navigating by stars" of r*, u*, and y*. The motivation for these pieces was Fed Chair Jay Powell's concerns about the challenge of using these ...

September 14, 2018, 1:47 pm, 1899475
Are the days of the Fed's floor system numbered? Last month I claimed that they could be if President Trump's fiscal policy continues to spawn rapid increases in the issuance of treasury bills. His administration is relying heavily on ...

September 14, 2018, 10:08 am, 1899414
I have a new article over at The Bridgewhere I piggyback off of Jay Powell'srecent speech about the challenges of the Fed 'navigating' by the stars of r*, u*, and y*. His concern is how to use them when they seem to be ...

August 24, 2018, 9:07 pm, 1893545
Fed Chairman Jay Powell had a very interesting talk today at the Jackson Hole conference. I am writing up a piece on the speech that should be out early next week at the Bridge. For now, I want to share something that I dug up in ...

July 25, 2018, 8:08 pm, 1879803
This is a quick follow-up to my recent article on the Eurozone.There I argued for more integration or separation in the Eurozone since ECB monetary policy is pushing regional economies further apart rather than together. I showed a version of the below chart in the article to ...

July 25, 2018, 5:07 pm, 1879753
There is a new Brookings paper by Warwick J. McKibbin and Augustus J. Panton titled Twenty-five Years of InflationTargeting in Australia: Are There Better Alternatives for the Next 25Years? Here is how they answer the question in their title:

This paper surveys alternative monetary ...

July 16, 2018, 5:07 pm, 1876426
So we are live at NRO discussing the future of the Eurozone:

Albert Einstein is rumored to have quipped that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity. If he were alive today, Einstein might say this ...

June 19, 2018, 11:07 pm, 1868910

The Fed needs to start worrying more about the flattening treasury yield curve. Bloomberg is reporting that bond traders