Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Macro and Other Market Musings

David Beckworth.

September 21, 2017, 8:37 pm, 1778185
Now that the shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet has been announced, I thought it worth nothing what it means for the future path of the monetary base. Drawing upon the Fed's median forecast of its assets through 2025 that comes from the 2016 SOMA Annual Report, ...

September 21, 2017, 12:07 pm, 1777990
Most folks know the arguments for and against shrinking the Fed's balance sheet on purely economic terms. For a good recap of these arguments see Cardiff Garcia, Henry Curr, and Nick Timiraos. There are however, other political economy forces at work that potentially play into ...

September 19, 2017, 12:37 am, 1776938

You are going to have listen to my podcast with him to find out the answer. Here is a hint: we spent a portion of the show talking about NGDP level targeting (NGDPLT) and what it would take to actually get ...

September 18, 2017, 11:06 pm, 1776928
This week the Fed is expected to announce it will begin shrinking its balance sheet. Will it matter?†
To answer that question it is useful to first recall how and why the Fed's balance sheet was expanded. Between December 2008 and October 2014 the ...

September 15, 2017, 2:36 pm, 1776123
Christina Romer, former CEA chair, called for a monetary regime change several times between 2011 and 2013. It is now several years later and it appears we did finally get a monetary regime change. Unfortunately, it is not the kind of regime change Christina advocated ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1773156
Over at U.S. News and World Report, I have a new article up on the next big challenge facing the Fed: normalizing its balance sheet. Some excerpts:

This path to monetary policy normalization.... may be fraught with surprises and setbacks. Not only must the ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1773155

My latest Macro Musings podcast is with George Selgin. George the director of the Cato‚Äôs Institute for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a former professor of economics at the University of Georgia.†

†George joined me ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1773154
My latest Macro Musings podcast is with Tyler Cowen. Tyler is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He joined me to discuss his new book, The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream. In it, Tyler ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1773153
†My latest Macro Musings podcast is with James Bullard. James is the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and an accomplished economic scholar. He joined me for a great conversation on macroeconomics that covered everything from the determinants ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1773152
My latest Macro Musing podcast is with Josh Zumbrum. Josh is a national economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. He joined me to talk about the angst facing the economics profession in this current environment. We also talked about the future ...