May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Modeled Behavior (Karl Smith)
"A styllized foray in to the world of highly fashionable ideas.” Karl Smith.
I tend to think the Austerity debate is so hopelessly mixed up with left-right politics that it is highly unlikely that even the blogosphere will come to clarity, let alone the wider policy community.
Nonetheless, I’ll try to make a few points.
Generally speaking “austerity” is an attempt to reduce structural budget ...
Tyler Cowen argues that monetary policy matters less with each passing day because
1. Resource misallocation and unemployment get “baked in” to some extent, due to hysteresis. I also would argue that some of the long-term unemployed are revealed as having been “baked in in the first place,” once the ...
Tyler Cowen starts the conversation which is good, because I wanted to go there.
I’ll have much more to say later but wanted to address a few quick things
Still, any given dollar must be spent somehow and “the stimulus model” and “the long-term investment model” are indeed competing visions for ...
One of the things that can make interpreting the monthly job creation report difficult is that net job creation is influenced by creation, destruction initiated by employers and destruction initiated by employees.
In March we had disappointing job net job creation number but total hires were near a cycle high and ...
In all likelihood no one reading Rajan’s essay was a impacted by his casual dismissives regarding residential construction as I was. This has been a point of mine for over a year now but let me make a few comments because they are still relevant to how people think about ...
Yes, US Auto production is coming back, but that’s not what I mean. Here is a prediction – bold but not unreasonable. Right now there are roughly 1 Billon cars on the road. The IEA predicts that there will be 2.5 Billion. I predict that by 2035 there will be ...
Matt Di Carlo at Shankerblog has some, as always, thoughtful and nuanced ideas on the discourse surrounding education policy. He argues that accusations of “teacher bashing” is often an unfair charge to level against education reformers, but that these reformers should also recognize that there is less space between ...
He seems to start out ok
The country is divided when different people take different sides in a debate. The country is really divided when different people are having entirely different debates. That’s what’s happening on economic policy.
Many people on the left are having a one-sided debate about how to ...
I have been arguing that “Spring Curse” in the US economy is mostly a statistical echo, coupled with some genuinely unfortunate events that occurred last year. One data source I have been looking at to track this is the Not Seasonally Adjusted Year-over-Year change in Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
I think the problem people have imagining a world of self-driving cars is they imagine it happening overnight. Yes, if a self-driving car showed up at your house tomorrow it would be a little nerve-racking to turn over control to a computer. But the progress will be relatively incremental, and ...