Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Modeled Behavior (Karl Smith)

"A styllized foray in to the world of highly fashionable ideas.” Karl Smith.

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629309

Though Feb still looks to be an outlier, strong performance continued, with the mix shifting slightly to trucks.

This along with lower incentives means that we will likely see another month-over-month increase in retail sales from autos. The data above is ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629310

This is more of a place holding note-to-self but if anyone has suggestions on some writing that has already be done down this line let me know.

Can we explain the appearance of analyticity by constructing a holistic notion of synonymy?

Lets accept that the body of knowledge confronts experience as a ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629311

Scott writes

The new GDP figures offer a reminder that one can’t analyze movements in GDPby looking at components of GDP.  We saw huge increases in spending on cars (pushing consumer durables up by 15.3%) and houses (up 19.1%.)  And yet overall RGDP growth fell to only 2.2%.  ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629304

There has been pushback from economists who support fringe positions on this article I wrote while guest-blogging for Megan on things that economists agree on. A lot of the pushback seems to focus on the title of the piece which says “all economists” reject these ideas. That’s a fine ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629308

This is the type of seminal insight that simply cannot be ignored nor praised too highly. From the Chronicle

So I would argue that the answer to the first question above, as to whether new approaches such as blogging constitute scholarly activity, is an emphatic yes. Which leads us to ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629307

I saw a good bit of commentary suggesting that the contribution of Residential Investment to GDP was surprising. On the whole I am surprised that it is not higher, though going into the GDP report I knew I had not seen the level of Multifamily starts I had been expecting.

Nonetheless, ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629305

New Claims out today and a big drop as many Easter seasonal advocates had argued. However, that’s not actually what interests me. If you look at Year-over-Year percent decline in Nonseasonally Adjusted Claims then they were running in a pretty tight band.

This suggested that despite the waviness in the ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629306

Tyler Cowen can’t heap enough praise on this paper from Raghuram Rajan.

I am loathe to use such language, but at this late date I think it helps to be direct. The paper reads to me like nonsense on stilts. Ostensibly its about the ineffectiveness of attempts to stimulate ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629295

Tyler Cowen argues that monetary policy matters less with each passing day because

1. Resource misallocation and unemployment get “baked in” to some extent, due to hysteresis.  I also would argue that some of the long-term unemployed are revealed as having been “baked in in the first place,” once the ...

April 23, 2016, 2:34 am, 1629294

I tend to think the Austerity debate is so hopelessly mixed up with left-right politics that it is highly unlikely that even the blogosphere will come to clarity, let alone the wider policy community.

Nonetheless, I’ll try to make a few points.

Generally speaking “austerity” is an attempt to reduce structural budget ...