Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Modeled Behavior (Karl Smith)

"A styllized foray in to the world of highly fashionable ideas.” Karl Smith.


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294389

This is the type of seminal insight that simply cannot be ignored nor praised too highly. From the Chronicle

So I would argue that the answer to the first question above, as to whether new approaches such as blogging constitute scholarly activity, is an emphatic yes. Which leads us to ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294391

This is more of a place holding note-to-self but if anyone has suggestions on some writing that has already be done down this line let me know.

Can we explain the appearance of analyticity by constructing a holistic notion of synonymy?

Lets accept that the body of knowledge confronts experience as a ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294392

Scott writes

The new GDP figures offer a reminder that one can’t analyze movements in GDPby looking at components of GDP.  We saw huge increases in spending on cars (pushing consumer durables up by 15.3%) and houses (up 19.1%.)  And yet overall RGDP growth fell to only 2.2%.  ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294390

Though Feb still looks to be an outlier, strong performance continued, with the mix shifting slightly to trucks.

This along with lower incentives means that we will likely see another month-over-month increase in retail sales from autos. The data above is ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294366

Charted below is the relationship between housing permits and the contribution of Residential Investment to GDP up through the end of last year.

The relationship is perfect, in part because there are more things than new construction in Residential Investment – the Realty industry, home ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294367

I’ve been frustrated over the past couple of months at the failure of housing in general and mutli-family housing in particular to respond to market in forces in the way I predicted late last year.

Part of the issue, however, seems to have been that the data was simply behind the ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294365

I’ve gone on record saying that there is no way domestic auto producers can deliver 11 Million new cars in 2012 with the workforce they have on hand. It seems, however, that they are going to do their best to try.

From Ford Media:

Ford Motor Company will produce nearly 40,000 ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294362

Current official estimates of GDP growth over the last year look like this

My baseline assumption is that this will be edged up both on stronger residential construction and stronger business investment than originally estimated. A revised figure of 3.0% is not out of the ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294363

No rate of increase like this on record. This is what convergence to the long run growth path should look like. As noted earlier housing permits are close to going parabolic as well, but we have yet to get confirmation of a similar movement in starts. Perhaps over the next ...


July 2, 2014, 10:34 pm, 1294364

When I said that by 2035 we could have 3 times as many cars as human beings, obviously that was a prediction about the predominance of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). I think we should begin to retire self-driving/driverless car, as it will eventually sound as hokey as horseless carriage.

In part this ...