May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Modeled Behavior (Karl Smith)
"A styllized foray in to the world of highly fashionable ideas.” Karl Smith.
Though Feb still looks to be an outlier, strong performance continued, with the mix shifting slightly to trucks.
This along with lower incentives means that we will likely see another month-over-month increase in retail sales from autos. The data above is ...
This is more of a place holding note-to-self but if anyone has suggestions on some writing that has already be done down this line let me know.
Can we explain the appearance of analyticity by constructing a holistic notion of synonymy?
Lets accept that the body of knowledge confronts experience as a ...
The new GDP figures offer a reminder that one can’t analyze movements in GDPby looking at components of GDP. We saw huge increases in spending on cars (pushing consumer durables up by 15.3%) and houses (up 19.1%.) And yet overall RGDP growth fell to only 2.2%. ...
There has been pushback from economists who support fringe positions on this article I wrote while guest-blogging for Megan on things that economists agree on. A lot of the pushback seems to focus on the title of the piece which says “all economists” reject these ideas. That’s a fine ...
This is the type of seminal insight that simply cannot be ignored nor praised too highly. From the Chronicle
So I would argue that the answer to the first question above, as to whether new approaches such as blogging constitute scholarly activity, is an emphatic yes. Which leads us to ...
I saw a good bit of commentary suggesting that the contribution of Residential Investment to GDP was surprising. On the whole I am surprised that it is not higher, though going into the GDP report I knew I had not seen the level of Multifamily starts I had been expecting.
New Claims out today and a big drop as many Easter seasonal advocates had argued. However, that’s not actually what interests me. If you look at Year-over-Year percent decline in Nonseasonally Adjusted Claims then they were running in a pretty tight band.
This suggested that despite the waviness in the ...
I am loathe to use such language, but at this late date I think it helps to be direct. The paper reads to me like nonsense on stilts. Ostensibly its about the ineffectiveness of attempts to stimulate ...
Tyler Cowen argues that monetary policy matters less with each passing day because
1. Resource misallocation and unemployment get “baked in” to some extent, due to hysteresis. I also would argue that some of the long-term unemployed are revealed as having been “baked in in the first place,” once the ...
I tend to think the Austerity debate is so hopelessly mixed up with left-right politics that it is highly unlikely that even the blogosphere will come to clarity, let alone the wider policy community.
Nonetheless, I’ll try to make a few points.
Generally speaking “austerity” is an attempt to reduce structural budget ...