Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Modeled Behavior (Karl Smith)

"A styllized foray in to the world of highly fashionable ideas.” Karl Smith.

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222954

I don’t have anything against Kathleen Madigan and I think her posts do a better job at confronting economic data than the vast majority of what you read from major news outlets. Yet, as much because of that as in spite of it, she often presents idealized examples of garbled ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222955

I think the problem people have imagining a world of self-driving cars is they imagine it happening overnight. Yes, if a self-driving car showed up at your house tomorrow it would be a little nerve-racking to turn over control to a computer. But the progress will be relatively incremental, and ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222956

Matt Di Carlo at Shankerblog has some, as always, thoughtful and nuanced ideas on the discourse surrounding education policy. He argues that accusations of “teacher bashing” is often an unfair charge to level against education reformers, but that these reformers should also recognize that there is less space between ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222957

He seems to start out ok

The country is divided when different people take different sides in a debate. The country is really divided when different people are having entirely different debates. That’s what’s happening on economic policy.

Many people on the left are having a one-sided debate about how to ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222953

I’ve been frustrated over the past couple of months at the failure of housing in general and mutli-family housing in particular to respond to market in forces in the way I predicted late last year.

Part of the issue, however, seems to have been that the data was simply behind the ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222952

Charted below is the relationship between housing permits and the contribution of Residential Investment to GDP up through the end of last year.

The relationship is perfect, in part because there are more things than new construction in Residential Investment – the Realty industry, home ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222949

No rate of increase like this on record. This is what convergence to the long run growth path should look like. As noted earlier housing permits are close to going parabolic as well, but we have yet to get confirmation of a similar movement in starts. Perhaps over the next ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222950

When I said that by 2035 we could have 3 times as many cars as human beings, obviously that was a prediction about the predominance of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). I think we should begin to retire self-driving/driverless car, as it will eventually sound as hokey as horseless carriage.

In part this ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222951

I’ve gone on record saying that there is no way domestic auto producers can deliver 11 Million new cars in 2012 with the workforce they have on hand. It seems, however, that they are going to do their best to try.

From Ford Media:

Ford Motor Company will produce nearly 40,000 ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1222948

Current official estimates of GDP growth over the last year look like this

My baseline assumption is that this will be edged up both on stronger residential construction and stronger business investment than originally estimated. A revised figure of 3.0% is not out of the ...