September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Biggest deterioration*: Syria, Spain, Gambia, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, Yemen, Mauritius and Eritrea.
Biggest improvement*: Myanmar, Laos, Senegal, and Brunei.
*I list countries with an absolute change of the corruption score of at least five points, ...
2. A summary and critique of Summers' "great stagnation" hypothesis, by Stephen King at the FT. ...
This line of analysis is obviously aimed at the long run. Thinking through how a freer and more
competitive health care and insurance market can work, and how most of the regulatory ...
2. Ă€ propos of unconventional monetary policy: how loose are monetary conditions anyway? Back ...
The work behind Fama's and Hansen's Nobel prizes.Great insights about bitcoin.Five soccer players "injured" within minutes. Game called off. The visiting team, Nocerina, had received death threats (from Salernitana's fans, I assume). Salernitana is the second division team from Salerno.
2. 66 questions and answers about the shutdown, by USA Today.
3. Martin Wolf is appalled by how and why the shutdown is happening. He writes about the possible default too.
2. Man gets a new nose grown on his forehead, from BBC news. ...
2. The farmers left-behind by China's urbanization: