Technical Problems 3/9/15
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May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Forecast the real total return of U.S. equities over the next ten years. Show your work.áTime: two hours.I wrote down a decomposition of the total return into three components:
What is a NK model? It is a RBC model plus a microfounded model of price setting, and a nominal interest rate set by the central bank. Every NK model has its inner RBC ...
Forecast the real total return of U.S. equities over the next ten years. Show your work. Time: two hours.This post describes how I would go about fulfilling this assignment.
The first thing is to define total ...
I have been playing with the labor productivity statistics from the Conference Board's Total Economy Database. Labor productivity is defined as real, PPP-adjusted GDP per person employed --using Geary-Khamis purchasing power parities. ...
1. Liftoff levers. John Cochrane is doing a fantastic job explaining how the Fed's reverse repo operations are supposed to work. Start with this post, and then read
The authors build a model that combines overlapping generations, the fiscal theory of price determination, and political considerations to analyze ...
The latest updateáto the McKinsey Global Institute's "Debt and deleveraging" report says that
...debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies ...
Antonio shows that, between 2007 and 2013, ...
Janet Yellen thinks ...