Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


March 13, 2014, 11:23 am, 1240085
John Hussman doesn’t like my essayon the U.S. profit share. He says that I made mistakes, and he denies my conclusions. I have revised my “unfortunate bit of analysis,” and the verdict stands: the U.S. profit share in the medium ...


March 8, 2014, 3:23 am, 1237367
1.Background to the Crimean conflict. Nice summary by BBC News.

2.Forty-four percent of Mexico's iron ore production is smuggled to China. (Does anybody know how large, or small, is China's real trade balance?)

3. Who is the eurozone's weakest link? Italian banks?

4.Felix ...


March 7, 2014, 9:23 am, 1236949
1.Background to the Crimean conflict. Nice summary by BBC News.

2.Forty-four percent of Mexico's iron ore production is smuggled to China. (Does anybody know how large, or small, is China's real trade balance?)

3. Who is the eurozone's weakest link? Italian banks?

4.Felix Salmon on why bond buyers insist ...


March 5, 2014, 9:23 am, 1235637
Two weeks ago I had the pleasure to meet and interview Harvey Rosenblum. Harvey worked in the research departments of the Federal Reserve system for over four decades. When he retired, in 2013, he was executive vice president and director of research at the Dallas Fed, where he served for ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222212
1. Forward interest rates and monetary tightening, by Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser. This is a nice refresher of forward interest rates, and an application of the Gurkaynak-Sack-Wrightdata set (xls).
2. A summary and critique of Summers' "great stagnation" hypothesis, by Stephen King at the FT. ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222213
Here's a couple of paragraphs from John's essay, to which he links on his blog:

This line of analysis is obviously aimed at the long run. Thinking through how a freer and more
competitive health care and insurance market can work, and how most of the regulatory ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222211
The concept of universal basic income (a.k.a. guaranteed minimum income) got a bit of tractionin the media when theSwissproposed in October to put it to referendum. The idea is to give a check every month to every adult citizen, regardless of age, income, wealth, job status, ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222208
1. John Cochrane discusses the Nobel lectures. The part about Shiller is particularly good.

2. Why Abenomics will disappoint, by Martin Wolf at the FT. My takeaway is that Japan should drive up final consumption by transferring income from the corporate sector to the household sector, and ...


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222209

This is by Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times. In his article, Davies ponders whether the bull market can last another year.

I am a little alarmed by this:


February 11, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1222210
1. Corruption perceptions. The 2013 results are in. Changes from 2012:

Biggest deterioration*: Syria, Spain, Gambia, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, Yemen, Mauritius and Eritrea.

Biggest improvement*: Myanmar, Laos, Senegal, and Brunei.

*I list countries with an absolute change of the corruption score of at least five points, ...