Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


October 27, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1358348
Gavyn Davies brings our attention to a paper (by Juan Antolín-Díaz, Thomas Drechsel, and Ivan Petrella), on the changing long-trend of GDP growth in G-7 countries. Here's the paper, here's a non-technical summary, and here are Davies' comments.

Trend growth rates have declined ...


October 16, 2014, 11:23 am, 1352250
1. Wealthy French:

"Although just 1.1% of the world's adults live in France, in terms of aggregate household wealth in current USD, it ranks fourth among nations --behind China and just ahead of the U.K. [...] This reflects the high average net worth of French households, rather than unusually ...


October 15, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1351778
Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon have written a new paper about the mechanisms of private leverage and fiscal policy within the eurozone, from its creation through the Great Recession. (NBER link, ungated version).

From the introduction (emphasis mine):

There is wide disagreement about ...


October 15, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1351687
Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon have written a new paper about the mechanisms of private leverage and fiscal policy within the eurozone, from its creation through the Great Recession. (NBER link, ungated version).

From the introduction (emphasis mine):

There is wide disagreement about ...


October 14, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1350961
Les Échos relays today's interview (in French) with Jean Tirole, by Europe 1. Tirole opines about the future of France, the job market, the need for reforms, sovereign debt, the euro, and the role of industrial regulation.

.
Jean ...


October 10, 2014, 11:23 am, 1349182

People are not losing low productivity jobs, becoming unemployed, and then getting high productivity jobs. People are staying in low productivity jobs, and new high productivity jobs are not being created. So the GR is not “cleansing”. It is, in some ways, “sullying”. The GR is pinning people into ...


September 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1343071
1. Labor under-utilization: We keep thinking, long and hard, about how much slack there is in the job market. Gavyn Davies brings our attention to a timely conference put on by the Peterson Institute. The "consensus" --at least as gauged by Davies-- is that the unemployment rate in ...


September 17, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1336679
What explains dissent within the FOMC? Daniel Thornton and David Wheelock contribute a fascinating research note (pdf) to this quarter's issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. (A 2013articleby Mark Wynne at the Dallas Fed also touches on dissent and FOMC ...


September 5, 2014, 9:23 am, 1329884
Giulio Zanella (hat tip to John Cochrane) writes a postsuggesting that Italy’s deflation is mostly imported. He supports his idea with two observations. First, the price index of goods has declined, but the price index of services has increased (coincidentally, by the same percentage). Second, ...


September 4, 2014, 11:23 am, 1329261
Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz, is against(FT) quantitative easing by the ECB. He thinks the ECB shouldn't go down the QE route, because:

First, the recent low inflation rates are in part a result of the decline in oil and other commodity prices. They also ...