Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


August 29, 2014, 11:23 am, 1326607
“Macroeconomics without the financial cycle is like Hamlet without the prince,” says Claudio Borio, Head of the Economic and Monetary Department of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. Borio has long argued that the business cycle alone can’t explain some features of expansions and recessions. The Great Depression and ...


August 25, 2014, 9:23 am, 1324004
1. Global bond sales at post-2009 high (from the FT):

Banks and businesses seeking to capitalise on record low borrowing costs in the west have seen worldwide bond volumes increase by 6 per cent to $2.74tn so far this year compared with the same period in 2013. ...


August 21, 2014, 9:23 am, 1322334
From Bloomberg News:Eight years of college lets Finns hide from labor market.

“When I tell people I’m a student, it tells them I’m achieving something compared to being jobless,” he said, sipping green tea at a cafe near the university’s main building. “In reality, there might ...


August 14, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1318681
I was surprised by this chart, a version of which I originally saw on FT Alphaville:


It shows the impressive rise of the female employment rate in Japan, both in absolute terms and relative ...


August 11, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1316374
Tyler Cowen linked to an article by Lydia DePillis on the Washington Post, a few days ago, about the "new business economist", the articulate professional with a nice suit, a telegenic face, and a masters or a Ph.D. degree, who can explain anything and everything to ...


August 8, 2014, 11:23 am, 1314753

Mainlanders looking to skirt the Chinese government's strict currency controls for a little high-stakes gambling need not look far after reaching the city of Macao.

[...] mainland authorities in recent months have been taking a closer look at the ways that gamblers dodge the official, 20,000 yuan limit on the ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312116
The core PCE inflation rate has slowed down from 2% to 1% in two years. The chart above, fromBloomberg, shows the contribution to that decline of the inflation rate of different categories of personal consumption expenditures (vertical axis).

Health care services make ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312115
1.The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is about to get much, much bigger, by Sober Look, via the excellentMacroDigest.

Here is why. Credit Suisse for example projects that Japan's inflation rate has peaked and is about to begin declining. In fact CS researchers see a ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312114
I strongly recommend this paper (no math, some jargon) to those of you interested in monetary policy. Brett Fawley and Christopher Neely walk the reader through the "quantitative easing" programs of the Big Four central banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB), from 2008 through 2012. Aside from the month-by-month, ...


August 5, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1312113

Admit it: you keep an eye on the World Cup while at work. So do stock traders, apparently.

Bloomberg Businessweek relays the results of a paper by researchers at the ...