Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


March 4, 2015, 9:23 am, 1433294
The Reserve Bank of India is officially an inflation targeter. The agreement between the Ministry of Finance and the RBI was signed on February 20, and published a few days ago. The target is to "bring inflation below 6 per cent" by January 2016. For financial year 2016-17 ...


February 27, 2015, 9:23 am, 1430363
No time for writing this week, so I'm listing blog posts and articles that caught my eye recently:

1. Liftoff levers. John Cochrane is doing a fantastic job explaining how the Fed's reverse repo operations are supposed to work. Start with this post, and then read


February 20, 2015, 5:23 am, 1425919
Hideki Konishi, Kozo Ueda, and Mitsuru Katagiri presented a few months ago a paper titled "Aging and deflation from a fiscal perspective." Here are the slides.

The authors build a model that combines overlapping generations, the fiscal theory of price determination, and political considerations to analyze ...


February 13, 2015, 9:23 am, 1422015
The world might not be "deleveraging," but I wouldn't know just by looking at the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The latest update to the McKinsey Global Institute's "Debt and deleveraging" report says that

...debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies ...


February 6, 2015, 3:23 am, 1417473
A recent post by Antonio Fatás got me curious about the composition of growth between 2007 and 2013. (Beware, however, that the period doesn't comprise a full business cycle, and that some European economies suffered two recessions during that period.)

Antonio shows that, between 2007 and 2013, ...


January 30, 2015, 7:23 am, 1413104
Market-based measures of U.S. inflation expectations plummeted over the last quarter of 2014--which is a concern now that inflation is so low. In particular, two market-based gauges are often quoted: the break-even rate from 5- and 10-year bond yields, and rates from inflation swaps.

Janet Yellen thinks ...


January 23, 2015, 11:23 am, 1408800
Following up on a blog post by David Andolfatto, I checked on the deflationary experiences of seven countries during the 19th and 20th centuries.

The mainstream commentary these days is that deflation causes (or at least is associated with) declining real economic activity. Here's an ...


January 15, 2015, 11:23 am, 1405078
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, former member of the executive board of the ECB, writes for the Financial Times that Greece's debt might be sustainable.

One of the points he makes is

...the sustainability of the debt depends on the dynamics over time rather than on the overall ...


January 7, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1400491
It's that time of the year when seemingly every economist in the private sector puts together an economic outlook for the year ahead. I'm not foolhardy enough to make predictions, or even to pretend my crystal ball is less cloudy than others'. I'm writing this post because I am bothered ...


December 31, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1397248
Things that Conventional Wisdom got right about 2014:
1. The Fed tapered asset purchases and ended the quantitative easing program by October.
2. China staged a soft landing, holding growth above 7%.
3. The eurozone's recovery from the recession was slow and uneven. (Here I must say, however, that the majority ...