Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


September 29, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1343071
1. Labor under-utilization: We keep thinking, long and hard, about how much slack there is in the job market. Gavyn Davies brings our attention to a timely conference put on by the Peterson Institute. The "consensus" --at least as gauged by Davies-- is that the unemployment rate in ...


September 17, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1336679
What explains dissent within the FOMC? Daniel Thornton and David Wheelock contribute a fascinating research note (pdf) to this quarter's issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review. (A 2013articleby Mark Wynne at the Dallas Fed also touches on dissent and FOMC ...


September 5, 2014, 9:23 am, 1329884
Giulio Zanella (hat tip to John Cochrane) writes a postsuggesting that Italy’s deflation is mostly imported. He supports his idea with two observations. First, the price index of goods has declined, but the price index of services has increased (coincidentally, by the same percentage). Second, ...


September 4, 2014, 11:23 am, 1329261
Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz, is against(FT) quantitative easing by the ECB. He thinks the ECB shouldn't go down the QE route, because:

First, the recent low inflation rates are in part a result of the decline in oil and other commodity prices. They also ...


August 29, 2014, 11:23 am, 1326607
“Macroeconomics without the financial cycle is like Hamlet without the prince,” says Claudio Borio, Head of the Economic and Monetary Department of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel. Borio has long argued that the business cycle alone can’t explain some features of expansions and recessions. The Great Depression and ...


August 25, 2014, 9:23 am, 1324004
1. Global bond sales at post-2009 high (from the FT):

Banks and businesses seeking to capitalise on record low borrowing costs in the west have seen worldwide bond volumes increase by 6 per cent to $2.74tn so far this year compared with the same period in 2013. ...


August 21, 2014, 9:23 am, 1322334
From Bloomberg News:Eight years of college lets Finns hide from labor market.

“When I tell people I’m a student, it tells them I’m achieving something compared to being jobless,” he said, sipping green tea at a cafe near the university’s main building. “In reality, there might ...


August 14, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1318681
I was surprised by this chart, a version of which I originally saw on FT Alphaville:


It shows the impressive rise of the female employment rate in Japan, both in absolute terms and relative ...


August 11, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1316374
Tyler Cowen linked to an article by Lydia DePillis on the Washington Post, a few days ago, about the "new business economist", the articulate professional with a nice suit, a telegenic face, and a masters or a Ph.D. degree, who can explain anything and everything to ...


August 8, 2014, 11:23 am, 1314753

Mainlanders looking to skirt the Chinese government's strict currency controls for a little high-stakes gambling need not look far after reaching the city of Macao.

[...] mainland authorities in recent months have been taking a closer look at the ways that gamblers dodge the official, 20,000 yuan limit on the ...