Technical Problems 1/21/15
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May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Janet Yellen thinks ...
The mainstream commentary these days is that deflation causes (or at least is associated with) declining real economic activity. Here's an ...
One of the points he makes is
...the sustainability of the debt depends on the dynamics over time rather than on the overall ...
1. The Fed tapered asset purchases and ended the quantitative easing program by October.
2. China staged a soft landing, holding growth above 7%.
3. The eurozone's recovery from the recession was slow and uneven. (Here I must say, however, that the majority ...
I define a "surprise" as the difference between the 2014 forecast in December (which should be close to the actual outcome) and the 2014 forecast in January (the one-year ahead forecast). (The data ...
$$g_t = 0.839 + 0.02499 b_t + e_t, $$
an equation that comes from an OLS regression of weekly prices ...
Mainlanders looking to skirt the Chinese government's strict currency controls for a little high-stakes gambling need not look far after reaching the city of Macao.
[...] mainland authorities in recent months have been taking a closer look at the ways that gamblers dodge the official, 20,000 ...