Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772294
Atlanta Fed's nowcast of Q1 GDP (0.6%) was really close to preliminary estimate announced today by BEA (0.5%). Atlanta's was much closer than the New York Fed's nowcast (0.8%). The question is which of the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772295
A little closer to Italy. The fragmentation of the vote was the expected and actual result of yesterday's general election. Incumbent Partido Popular (PP - moderate right) won the most votes, but came far short of the majority it had obtained in 2011.

The main other party, Partido Socialista ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772296
A recent poll by Chicago Booth (thanks, Tyler!) asked a panel of economists in early December to agree or disagree with the following statement

The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.

The respondents (all of whom are "senior faculty at ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772297
Stan Pignal, Patrick Foulis, and Philip Coggan (all three from The Economist), talk about how managers find (mostly) legal ways to puff up corporate earnings.

~12 minutes


 


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772293
Refreshingly outspoken James Bullard, from the St. Louis Fed, gives an interview to the New York Times. Some great quotes (emphasis mine):

"The general rule of thumb within the Fed is that labor market data trumps G.D.P. data." 

"Once major central banks hit the zero lower bound, the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772292
From the Washington Post:


(Thanks to @JustinWolfers for his tweet.)

My thoughts after reading this article:

1. Robots can be more valuable when there is more technology in the environment.  In this example, a ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772289
Was Cantillon the real father of economics, or just the first modern economist?

Harry Landreth and David Colander, on History of Economic Thought, heap praise on Cantillon's accomplishments (emphasis added):

Richard Cantillon (c. 1680-1734) was an unusual figure in the history of economic ideas. His birth date and ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772290
Metropolis

"What futurists actually do is facilitate as groups of people work through ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772291
Published in the May/June issue of the Financial Analysts Journal (vol. 72, no. 3). I'm not sure it it's gated, so you can find a working paper (from 2013!) version here.
Abstract:

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price–earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, has served as ...


September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772288


Excellent article on the wall with Mexico, by the Cato Institute.

My questions and comments:

1) Since a) the only effective wall would have to be a ...