Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.

Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

RSS Feed


"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848687
Atlanta Fed's nowcast of Q1 GDP (0.6%) was really close to preliminary estimate announced today by BEA (0.5%). Atlanta's was much closer than the New York Fed's nowcast (0.8%). The question is which of the ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848688
A little closer to Italy. The fragmentation of the vote was the expected and actual result of yesterday's general election. Incumbent Partido Popular (PP - moderate right) won the most votes, but came far short of the majority it had obtained in 2011.

The main other party, Partido Socialista ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848689
A recent poll by Chicago Booth (thanks, Tyler!) asked a panel of economists in early December to agree or disagree with the following statement

The Fed should raise its target interest rate when it meets in mid-December.

The respondents (all of whom are "senior faculty at ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848690
Stan Pignal, Patrick Foulis, and Philip Coggan (all three from The Economist), talk about how managers find (mostly) legal ways to puff up corporate earnings.

~12 minutes


April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848686
Refreshingly outspoken James Bullard, from the St. Louis Fed, gives an interview to the New York Times. Some great quotes (emphasis mine):

"The general rule of thumb within the Fed is that labor market data trumps G.D.P. data." 

"Once major central banks hit the zero lower bound, the ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848685
From the Washington Post:

(Thanks to @JustinWolfers for his tweet.)

My thoughts after reading this article:

1. Robots can be more valuable when there is more technology in the environment.  In this example, a ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848682
Was Cantillon the real father of economics, or just the first modern economist?

Harry Landreth and David Colander, on History of Economic Thought, heap praise on Cantillon's accomplishments (emphasis added):

Richard Cantillon (c. 1680-1734) was an unusual figure in the history of economic ideas. His birth date and ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848683

"What futurists actually do is facilitate as groups of people work through ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848684
Published in the May/June issue of the Financial Analysts Journal (vol. 72, no. 3). I'm not sure it it's gated, so you can find a working paper (from 2013!) version here.

Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price–earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, has served as ...

April 30, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1848681

Excellent article on the wall with Mexico, by the Cato Institute.

My questions and comments:

1) Since a) the only effective wall would have to be a ...