May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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In a 2012 TV commercial for a U.S. bank, a stage curtain goes up to reveal Tom Sargent, Nobel laureate in economics. A voice asks: â€śProfessor Sargent, can you tell me ...
Davies juxtaposes a recent speech by Yellen to the ...
This line of analysis is obviously aimed at the long run. Thinking through how a freer and more
competitive health care and insurance market can work, and how most of the regulatory ...
2. A summary and critique of Summers' "great stagnation" hypothesis, by Stephen King at the FT. ...
2. Ă€ propos of unconventional monetary policy: how loose are monetary conditions anyway? Back in the day when ...
Biggest deterioration*: Syria, Spain, Gambia, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, Yemen, Mauritius and Eritrea.
Biggest improvement*: Myanmar, Laos, Senegal, and Brunei.
*I list countries with an absolute change of the corruption score of at least five points, ...
This is by Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times. In his article, Davies ponders whether the bull market can last another year.
I am a little alarmed by this:
2. Deflation, the zero-lower-bound, and multiple inflation equilibria, eurozone edition (this is a straight application of James Bullard's earlier paper, which in turn is an application of a paper by Benhabib, Schmitt-GrohĂ©, and Uribe). Hat tip to Gavyn Davies, at ...