Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


November 20, 2014, 11:23 am, 1375047
The long-term unemployed matter. That might be the conclusion from a trio of blog posts by New York Fed researchers, over at Liberty Street Economics. (The authors are Rob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and AyĹźegĂĽl Sahin.)

In the


November 17, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1372868
Africa had it good for a while. Income per person adjusted for inflation, which declined in the 1980s and 1990s, has risen 30% since 2000. In Ethiopia and Angola real average income doubled between 2000 and 2010—after zero growth in the previous twenty years. A single decade has seen ...


November 11, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1369183
Dietrich Vollrath comments on a paper by economists Holger Strulik and Carl-Johan Dalgaard, on the relationship between geographic latitude and economic development. I found it fascinating to follow the entire reasoning chain.

He starts with the striking observation that the relationship between latitude and development (measured ...


November 3, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1363256
Economists at the Cleveland Fed compile different estimates of "labor market slack" and of the "normal unemployment rate." I think the most important sentence in their commentary is:

There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates, so we cannot draw sharp conclusions about the amount of slack, or ...


October 30, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1360852
Nadege Jassaud, economist at the IMF, writes an entry on Vox about Italian banks: ownership structure, corporate governance, and asset quality. Her main points:

1. The recently released ECB balance sheet assessment highlighted nine Italian banks that failed the asset quality review (AQR) and stress tests – before ...


October 27, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1358348
Gavyn Davies brings our attention to a paper (by Juan AntolĂ­n-DĂ­az, Thomas Drechsel, and Ivan Petrella), on the changing long-trend of GDP growth in G-7 countries. Here's the paper, here's a non-technical summary, and here are Davies' comments.

Trend growth rates have declined ...


October 16, 2014, 11:23 am, 1352250
1. Wealthy French:

"Although just 1.1% of the world's adults live in France, in terms of aggregate household wealth in current USD, it ranks fourth among nations --behind China and just ahead of the U.K. [...] This reflects the high average net worth of French households, rather than unusually ...


October 15, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1351778
Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon have written a new paper about the mechanisms of private leverage and fiscal policy within the eurozone, from its creation through the Great Recession. (NBER link, ungated version).

From the introduction (emphasis mine):

There is wide disagreement about ...


October 15, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1351687
Philippe Martin and Thomas Philippon have written a new paper about the mechanisms of private leverage and fiscal policy within the eurozone, from its creation through the Great Recession. (NBER link, ungated version).

From the introduction (emphasis mine):

There is wide disagreement about ...


October 14, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1350961
Les Échos relays today's interview (in French) with Jean Tirole, by Europe 1. Tirole opines about the future of France, the job market, the need for reforms, sovereign debt, the euro, and the role of industrial regulation.

.
Jean ...