Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


January 30, 2015, 7:23 am, 1413104
Market-based measures of U.S. inflation expectations plummeted over the last quarter of 2014--which is a concern now that inflation is so low. In particular, two market-based gauges are often quoted: the break-even rate from 5- and 10-year bond yields, and rates from inflation swaps.

Janet Yellen thinks ...


January 23, 2015, 11:23 am, 1408800
Following up on a blog post by David Andolfatto, I checked on the deflationary experiences of seven countries during the 19th and 20th centuries.

The mainstream commentary these days is that deflation causes (or at least is associated with) declining real economic activity. Here's an ...


January 15, 2015, 11:23 am, 1405078
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, former member of the executive board of the ECB, writes for the Financial Times that Greece's debt might be sustainable.

One of the points he makes is

...the sustainability of the debt depends on the dynamics over time rather than on the overall ...


January 7, 2015, 3:23 pm, 1400491
It's that time of the year when seemingly every economist in the private sector puts together an economic outlook for the year ahead. I'm not foolhardy enough to make predictions, or even to pretend my crystal ball is less cloudy than others'. I'm writing this post because I am bothered ...


December 31, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1397248
Things that Conventional Wisdom got right about 2014:
1. The Fed tapered asset purchases and ended the quantitative easing program by October.
2. China staged a soft landing, holding growth above 7%.
3. The eurozone's recovery from the recession was slow and uneven. (Here I must say, however, that the majority ...


December 29, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1396186
In the chart below I have displayed the GDP and inflation surprises of 2014, by country.

I define a "surprise" as the difference between the 2014 forecast in December (which should be close to the actual outcome) and the 2014 forecast in January (the one-year ahead forecast). (The data ...


December 23, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1393914
Tim Duy wonders whether predicting the Fed's change of language over the next six months will be as easy as looking at the statements from 2004. On Jan. 28, 2004 the FOMC statement introduced the word "patient", replacing the "considerable period" phrase. The Fed kept "patient" in the ...


December 16, 2014, 11:23 am, 1390036
One way for central banks to gauge long-term inflation expectations is to look at the \(n\)-year-forward, \(m\)-year-ahead expected inflation rate. For instance, the two-year-forward, three-year-ahead expected inflation is the expected change of prices two years from now, over the following three years. As of December 2014, that would be the ...


December 4, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1383374
Over two years ago Jim Hamilton posted that the relationship between the retail price of U.S. gasoline and the price of Brent, empirically, is given by

$$g_t = 0.839 + 0.02499 b_t + e_t, $$

an equation that comes from an OLS regression of weekly prices ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381988

Mainlanders looking to skirt the Chinese government's strict currency controls for a little high-stakes gambling need not look far after reaching the city of Macao.

[...] mainland authorities in recent months have been taking a closer look at the ways that gamblers dodge the official, 20,000 ...