May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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I like Tyler's insight that decades of high growth distorted the assessment of the risk/return of new investment projects, which is distinct (but ...
(I wish they wouldn't implicitly endorse the popular definition of recession, i.e. two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. ...
-200k jobs added per month, which many observers find normal, is more than we can reasonably expect.
-Recent trends and ...
Green (red) means lower (higher) inflation. The color scale is meaningful within rows only. So, for example, the deep-green that the ...
(Hat tip to an old colleague and accomplished investment manager P. M. - I'm not sure I can say his name, since I got his pointer through LinkedIn.)
I define a "surprise" as the difference between the 2014 forecast in December (which should be close to the actual outcome) and the 2014 forecast in January (the one-year ahead forecast). (The data ...
1. The Fed tapered asset purchases and ended the quantitative easing program by October.
2. China staged a soft landing, holding growth above 7%.
3. The eurozone's recovery from the recession was slow and uneven. (Here I must say, however, that the majority ...