Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconWeekly

"Economic analysis of current issues, every Friday.” Francisco M. Torralba.


December 16, 2014, 11:23 am, 1390036
One way for central banks to gauge long-term inflation expectations is to look at the \(n\)-year-forward, \(m\)-year-ahead expected inflation rate. For instance, the two-year-forward, three-year-ahead expected inflation is the expected change of prices two years from now, over the following three years. As of December 2014, that would be the ...


December 4, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1383374
Over two years ago Jim Hamilton posted that the relationship between the retail price of U.S. gasoline and the price of Brent, empirically, is given by

$$g_t = 0.839 + 0.02499 b_t + e_t, $$

an equation that comes from an OLS regression of weekly prices ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381992
Gavyn Davies writes an excellent summary of the debate between the"mainstream-central bank-Keynesian" view of the economy and the "alternative-BIS-Wicksellian" view. (It's on the blog section of the Financial Times, but I'm not sure if it's gated.)

Davies juxtaposes a recent speech by Yellen to the ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381993
1. Benjamin Friedman describes the perils of downsizing the central bank's balance sheet. It wasn't my first guess, though. Friedman argues that, by holding an assortment of assets, central banks have acquired a new tool to fine-tune monetary policy.

2. A three-part


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381991
Are low interest rates the new norm?

In a 2012 TV commercial for a U.S. bank, a stage curtain goes up to reveal Tom Sargent, Nobel laureate in economics. A voice asks: “Professor Sargent, can you tell me ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381990
Quite a few things to note and ponder in this chartbook on the causes of death, from the always-appealing Bloomberg Visual Data. "How Americans die":


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381989
1. How the government exaggerates the cost of education, by David Leonhardt at the New York Times.

But it turns out the government’s measure is deeply misleading.
For years, that measure was based on the list prices that colleges published in their brochures, rather than ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381988

Mainlanders looking to skirt the Chinese government's strict currency controls for a little high-stakes gambling need not look far after reaching the city of Macao.

[...] mainland authorities in recent months have been taking a closer look at the ways that gamblers dodge the official, 20,000 ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381970
Africa had it good for ten years. Income per person adjusted for inflation, which declined in the 1980s and 1990s, rose almost 30% between 2000 and 2010. In Ethiopia and Angola real average income doubled—after zero growth in the previous twenty years. Glitzy shops and skyscrapers have replaced drab ...


December 3, 2014, 9:23 am, 1381969
The long-term unemployed matter. That might be the conclusion from a trio of blog posts by New York Fed researchers, over at Liberty Street Economics. (The authors areRob Dent, Samuel Kapon, Fatih Karahan, Benjamin W. Pugsley, and Ayşegül Sahin.)

In the