Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676692

Financially futile, economically erroneous, politically puzzling and socially irresponsible, the December 2011 European summit was a failure that put Europe firmly on the road to nowhere.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676693

The eurozone has enough savings. The problem is the distribution of the savings. The nothern European savers do not want to finance the southern European countries.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676694

European leaders convened for yet another summit deciding on the fate of the euro area. So are all central parts of a solution now defined?

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676695

What happens if Italy fails to implement structural reforms and interventions are not enough to avoid a default?

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676691

Germany’s economic policy strategy is incompatible with the logic of a monetary union. That is the real reason why Europe fails to solve the crisis.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676690

It may seem strange to call for an increased international role of the euro. But the flaws of an international monetary system centered on the US dollar are substantial.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676687

Italy needs structural reform. But the lack of the lack of structural reform is not the cause of this crisis, nor will structural reform provide a solution.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676688

The lack of ressources aggravates the marginalisation of the youth, creating the preconditions for a social earthquake.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676689

The new Treaty provides little enhancement with respect to the Stability and Growth pact and includes measures that are either too vague or likely to be ineffective. It also fails to address the current crisis.

September 19, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1676686

It was the Troika's biggest mistake to delaythe necessary wageadjustment in Greece. Ultimately, growth can only come from exports, and that requires a steepfall in Greek wages.