Database Maintenance 7/4/15
Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
As the world focuses on the eurozone, this extensive analysis reminds us that the that the debt problem of the US government is at least as bad as that of the eurozone, and is likely to resurface very shortly.
The neglect of finance in macroeconomics has left us badly unprepared for a credit crisis. Central bankers and top academics united in saying that â€˜no one saw this comingâ€™. That is patently false: there are alternatives ways of doing economics and clear forewarnings of crisis had been issued ...
An ECB debt redemption bond, a programme to address investment and internal imbalances, and the creation of a genuine single banking market is all that it takes to solve the eurozone crisis. And it is doable without Treaty changes.
The discussion about the fiscal pact ignores the important of the 1/20 debt rule, which has a far more devastating impact on countries like Spain and Italy than the simple elimination of the structural deficit.
The half-life of solutions to Europeâ€™s debt problem is getting ever shorter.
The gap between democratic representation and political decision making is widening in Europe. Not only the economy, but also the institutional setup in Europe needs to change.
This article disputes the view that the Commission is forcing countries to accelerate austerity in the midst of a recession, and that it forces adjustment in deficit countries without imposing a symmetric and opposite adjustment in surplus countries.
The fiscal compact is far from perfect, but it is a necessary expedient, and paves the way for more substantial treaty change later on.
Systematic mismanagement by the European leaders are at the roots of this continued Euro-crisis. It is time to correct the course.
Eurozone governments should agree to stop taking new austerity measures in 2011 and define next yearâ€™s budgetary consolidation in terms of structural measures and not in terms of specific reduction in deficit and debt ratio.