Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229909

It may seem strange to call for an increased international role of the euro. But the flaws of an international monetary system centered on the US dollar are substantial.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229910

Germany’s economic policy strategy is incompatible with the logic of a monetary union. That is the real reason why Europe fails to solve the crisis.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229911

Financially futile, economically erroneous, politically puzzling and socially irresponsible, the December 2011 European summit was a failure that put Europe firmly on the road to nowhere.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229912

The eurozone has enough savings. The problem is the distribution of the savings. The nothern European savers do not want to finance the southern European countries.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229908

The new Treaty provides little enhancement with respect to the Stability and Growth pact and includes measures that are either too vague or likely to be ineffective. It also fails to address the current crisis.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229907

The lack of ressources aggravates the marginalisation of the youth, creating the preconditions for a social earthquake.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229904

Greece may live to default another day. Other embattled European nations will be scrutinising the Athenian sub-plot extremely closely as to clues as to their future as they await the battles that lie ahead.A declaration of victory in the European debt wars would be premature.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229905

It was the Troika's biggest mistake to delaythe necessary wageadjustment in Greece. Ultimately, growth can only come from exports, and that requires a steepfall in Greek wages.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229906

Italy needs structural reform. But the lack of the lack of structural reform is not the cause of this crisis, nor will structural reform provide a solution.

February 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1229903

Replacing lending by transfers, fiscal union proper could save and make the euro overnight. By contrast, ECB liquidity cannot make competitiveness imbalances and the corresponding debt flows go away,even as the foul debts now accumulate on the Eurosystem’s balance sheet.