Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Eurointelligence
The Austrian newspaper Der Kurier has quite detailed information leaked from the ongoing negotiations for a Greek bailout scenario. According to their sources, Germany and Paris agreed that Greece might need €55bn until the end of the year to prevent insolvency. The German government would be ...
The momentum for a ban on naked CDS is getting stronger. Germany and France on Wednesday called on the European Union to consider banning speculative trading in credit default swaps and set up a compulsory register of derivatives trading, the FT reports. Angela Merkel and Francois ...
Germany and France, working with Luxembourg and Greece, are planning a joint anti-speculation initiative to galvanise action by the European Commission to tighten regulation of derivatives trading, and in particular of CDS in the sovereign debt markets, the FT reports. Angela Merkel called on Tuesday for ...
If you want to unnerve a European, the revelation of a secret dinner of New York-based hedge funds conspiring against the euro is hard to beat. Europeans are right to worry – but not about the collusion itself. They should be much more ...
So here they make the biggest governance proposal in the history of the euro, and it looks like they messed it up. A treaty change is needed to implement Schauble’s proposal, as Merkel now admits and the French also think it is not realistic. Schauble’s big proposal is in ...
It’s happening. European government are sufficiently scared that they produce some governance reform ideas. Germany’s Wolfgang Schauble has picked up on Daniel Gros and Thomas Mayer’s idea of a European Monetary Fund.
The first details were revealed by the German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who told ...
We get the sense that the EU wants to declare the Greek crisis as over, game, set and match. No aid needed. Greece has helped itself. Or as Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday: the austerity is proof that the institutions of the euro area are functioning. We are not convinced. ...
This is now the most interesting, and potentially dangerous moment of the Greek crisis. After George Panpandreou effectively did everything the ECB and the European Commission have told him, the ball has left Athens, and is now in the court of the euro area. And it has to be ...
The FT leads the paper with a story that hedge funds are raising their bets against the euro amid growing fears of a regulatory backlash against their trading positions on the specific sovereign debt of Greece and other weak eurozone economies. Many of ...
Today, George Papandreou will try to persuade his cabinet, and later in the day, or tomorrow morning, the wider Greek public of his latest austerity plan, which according to Kathimerini will include cuts in civil servants pay, including a reduction in the 14 month salary ...