Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Eurointelligence


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370039

Greece may live to default another day. Other embattled European nations will be scrutinising the Athenian sub-plot extremely closely as to clues as to their future as they await the battles that lie ahead.  A declaration of victory in the European debt wars would be premature.


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370040

It was the Troika's biggest mistake to delay the necessary wage adjustment in Greece. Ultimately, growth can only come from exports, and that requires a steep fall in Greek wages. 


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370041

Italy needs structural reform. But the lack of the lack of structural reform is not the cause of this crisis, nor will structural reform provide a solution.


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370042

The lack of ressources aggravates the marginalisation of the youth, creating the preconditions for a social earthquake.


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370038

Replacing lending by transfers, fiscal union proper could save and make the euro overnight. By contrast, ECB liquidity cannot make competitiveness imbalances and the corresponding debt flows go away, even as the foul debts now accumulate on the Eurosystem’s balance sheet.


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370037

Years of avoiding the difficult questions have led to a loss of credibility and a worsening of the crisis. We must let others step in, who are independent of prestige and vested interests.

 


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370034

A hard landing in China will be especially traumatic for the global economy, which has not dealt with its core problems – excessive debt levels, weak non debt fuelled demand and global imbalances. The crisis and its affects have been masked in developed economies by artificial demand from government spending, ...


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370035

A hard landing in China will be especially traumatic for the global economy, which has not dealt with its core problems – excessive debt levels, weak non debt fuelled demand and global imbalances. The crisis and its affects have been masked in developed economies by artificial demand from government spending, ...


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370036

The fiscal compact that was meant to restore trust among its members and

is seen as a "step towards political union", is in difficulty

because it sets up an incomplete fiscal union. Europe should now propose

a simple bargain to Spain. Spain should abide by the rules and in ...


November 12, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1370033

Contrary to the claims by Hans-Werner Sinn, similar imbalances have arisen  in the US since September 2008. The New York Fed has accumulated a large positive ISA account, while the Richmond and San Francisco Fed have accumulated a negative ISA account. They are not eliminated either.