Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Director’s Blog (CBO)

Congressional Budget Office Director’s Blog.  Peter R. Orszag.

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772033

This morning I testified before the Senate Budget Committee on our annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which was released on Tuesday. As I did in my testimony before the House Budget Committee, I highlighted many of the points that were included in Tuesday’s blog post. In ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772034

The Wall Street Journal has just published an article entitled “Congress’s Number Cruncher Comes Under Fire.” Here’s our view:

CBO is responsible for providing nonpartisan and thoughtful analysis to the Congress, and we are proud that our success in carrying out that mission, for more than 35 years, is widely acknowledged ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772035

This morning I testified before the House Budget Committee on our annual Budget and Economic Outlook that was released yesterday. My testimony highlighted many of the points that were included in yesterday’s blog post.One point I want to emphasize is the following: The combination of tax and ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772036

We have received many questions about whether potential reductions in spending for overseas contingency operations (OCO), such as U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, can be considered as offsets to reductions in taxes or additional spending for Medicare or other programs. In this blog post, I will try to explain the ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772032

Do you receive a tax deduction for the interest paid on your mortgage or for the taxes you pay to your state and local governments? Would you think about those deductions in the same way if instead of seeing a reduction in taxes for those items the federal government instead ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772031

The federal government accumulated a budget deficit of $349 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates in its latest Monthly Budget Review, $70 billion less than the shortfall recorded for the same period last year. Without shifts in the timing of certain payments, however, ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772028

The military services—the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps—use modeling techniques to inform parts of their annual budget requests. As directed by the Congress in the 2011 National Defense Authorization Act, today’s CBOstudy provides information on the models used to develop budgets for activities associated with operational readiness.

The ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772029

More than 2 million service members have deployed in support of overseas contingency operations (OCO) in Iraq and Afghanistan since October 2001. Two combat-related conditions that affect some OCO veterans and that have generated widespread concern among policymakers are post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD, an anxiety disorder induced by exposure to ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772030

Yesterday I spoke to the National Economists Club on our recently released Budget and Economic Outlook. My remarks reiterated much of what I said in several of last week’s blog posts:

CBO Releases the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 Fundamental Fiscal Challenge How Would Some ...

September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772027

The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, making the past three years the longest stretch of high unemployment in this country since the Great Depression. CBO projects that the unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014. The share of ...