Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

October 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1686918

Lebanese-born, New York-based artist Walid Raad has been called a “prankster of the art world” for his tendency to blur the lines between history and imagination.

His most recent work brings into focus the many ways that art and culture are bound up with geopolitics, finance and economics.

Previously, he spun stories ...

October 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1686623

The global growth slump has at least one silver lining: It is forcing economic overhauls in some of the worst places in the world to do business.

“In times of crisis, you can actually see an acceleration in the pace of some kinds of reforms,” says Augusto Lopez-Claros, who oversees the ...

October 24, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1686210

Just weeks in to his new job as the World Bank’s new chief economist, Paul Romer is already looking to shake up the aging development institution.

The controversy-courting New York University professor and tech-firm founder is known as a chief proponent of the ideas-driven endogenous-growth theory.

He is putting his ...

October 21, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685668

Unemployment fell over the past year in nine of the 12 most competitive states in the 2016 presidential election.

The economy and labor market typically rank among the biggest issues on voters’ minds as they head to the polls. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has pointed to economic stability and job growth ...

October 20, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1685404

Hillary Clinton has an ambitious, multilayered economic program that involves lots of new taxes on the rich to finance expanded social transfers, education and infrastructure.

“We are going to ask the wealthy and corporations to pay their fair share,” she said at Wednesday’s debate. “And there is no evidence whatsoever ...

October 20, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685356

In the final 2016 presidential debate, Donald Trump suggested Americans should be worried the U.S. economy is growing at a fraction of China’s and India’s rates.

“India, they’re growing at 8%. China is growing a 7%, and that for them is a catastrophically low number,” the Republican presidential candidate said. “We are growing—our ...

October 20, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685358

Blacks owe nearly twice as much student debt as whites four years after graduating college—and they are three times more likely to default.

Those findings, contained in a new paper from the Brookings Institution, suggest the past decade’s surge in student debt is affecting blacks far more than any other racial ...

October 20, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1685357

More than seven years after the recession ended, black workers’ earnings are accelerating sharply.

Median usual weekly earnings for full-time black workers rose 9.8% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth on records back to 2000, according to data the Labor Department released Thursday.

The recent ...

October 20, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685308

The starting premise of the federal budget discussion during the final presidential debate was the idea from moderator Chris Wallace that deficits and government debt are urgent and ignored problems.

But some economists aren’t sold on the primacy of deficit reduction as a national goal when interest rates are historically ...

October 20, 2016, 7:03 am, 1685184

Faced with a growing affordability crisis, mayors across the country have pledged to build thousands more units of housing. But a new analysis shows to meet those targets, many would have to exceed the pace reached at the height of the housing boom.

Cities such as Los Angeles, Boston and New ...