Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

June 28, 2016, 11:03 am, 1649134

The International Monetary Fund recently cut its U.S. economic forecast the U.S., painting a bleak growth picture ahead without a major overhaul of the American economy.

Here are six charts that detail why the fund is so concerned, and the IMF’s prescriptions.

[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = "0" ]

A rising share of the workforce ...

June 27, 2016, 7:03 am, 1648710

Before the government can measure the size of the gig economy — or is it the sharing economy? The digital economy? — the sector needs to be defined.

The Commerce Department recently proposed a four-part definition for what it calls “digital matching firms” and identified more than 100 businesses that ...

June 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1648322
Days after Brexit shook global financial markets, investors will be paying close attention to the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. The week offers a big dose of economic updates on manufacturing, inflation, the car and housing markets, and GDP.

June 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648234

The United Kingdom on Thursday voted to leave the European Union, setting the stage for a protracted breakup and prolonged political and economic uncertainty. Here’s what economists and analysts are saying about the “Brexit” vote.

“Britain’s shock vote to leave the E.U. has unleashed a wave of economic and political uncertainty that ...

June 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648233
Even if you're in the U.S. and not an active investor or market professional, the latest market movements could have real economic implications for you.

June 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1648136

The outcome of the British referendum, with a majority backing a U.K. exit from the European Union, is rattling investors around the world and setting up markets for a rocky day. Here’s how some key institutions in the U.S. are likely to look at the uncertainty on Friday:

June 23, 2016, 11:03 am, 1647844

The resurgence of the housing market has been a bright spot for the U.S. economy, contributing to employment, investment and overall growth. But by many measures it remains well below historical norms, highlighting the severity of the housing bust while also factoring into low inventories and rising prices.

Sales of

June 23, 2016, 1:03 am, 1647739

About two-thirds of U.S. cities have fully rebounded from the recession and are now at peak employment levels, highlighting the steady job gains and tightening labor market across wide swathes of the nation. That’s pushing wages higher in many metro areas, generating more disposable income for households and supporting spending ...

June 22, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1647555

Incomes grew faster in Washington than any other state during the first quarter, largely reflecting stock grants to workers from technology companies.

Personal incomes in the Evergreen State advanced at a seasonally adjusted 1.5% during the first three months of the year compared to the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said ...

June 22, 2016, 9:03 am, 1647460

Workers on the margins of the labor pool often get a second look as the job market heats up. After years of steady job creation, are we now at that point in the business cycle?

A new report from the Labor Department suggests the answer could be “yes.” For working-age ...