Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409214
The European Central Bank announced its large-scale bond-buying program on Thursday, but who will the ECB be purchasing those bonds from? Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The European Central ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409215

Commercial real estate analysts were projecting that 2015 would be a strong year even before Thursday’s quantitative easing announcement by the European Central Bank.

Now it’s looking even better, according to David Hutchings, ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409209
“Surprise monetary contractions tended to expand shadow bank asset growth, rather than reduce it,” says new research from the Bank of England. European Pressphoto Agency

Raising interest rates ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409213
Pushing the euro lower against other major currencies could help exporters and increase output, while it could also help raise inflation by making imported goods and services more expensive ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409212

Mario Draghi: Meet Tom Brady, who has some experience with a brutal environment in which longstanding rules are sometimes broken.

Tom Brady: Meet Mario Draghi, who knows inflation is the most prudent goal these days.

Credit the CNN chyron for bringing the ECB and NFL together at last:

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409210
Trulia’s chief economist, Jed Kolko, says “old patterns have returned” and “suburbs are now gaining population faster than urban neighborhoods.” Dying suburbs aren’t the only migration myth.

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409211

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, January 23, 2015:

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Hilsenrath’s Take: On Day One of ECB QE, Draghi Gets Much of What He ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409207
Mounting student debt, higher rents and tight credit conditions continue to make it tough for first-time borrowers to save enough money for a down payment and qualify for a ...

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409205
The first Federal Reserve policy meeting of 2015 headlines a busy roster of economic events, including the first look at fourth-quarter growth. Here are five things to watch.

January 24, 2015, 7:03 am, 1409206
A harsh winter brought record snow fall in early 2014, burying New York City cars for weeks. Getty Images

When the U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the ...