Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361745

Price gains remained subdued across the U.S. economy in September, keeping a key gauge of inflation below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for a 29th consecutive month.

The price index for

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361747

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, October 31, 2014:

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Schlesinger’s Take: Behind BOJ’s Halloween Treat, A Scary Slip Back Toward Deflation Bank of Japan ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361746

If you waited until Halloween to buy goodies for your neighborhood’s trick-or-treaters, you’re in luck. Pricing data suggest you’re less likely to pay a premium today than if you stocked ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361742
Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at the bank’s headquarters in Tokyo on Oct. 31. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

“Three” could be the new magic number for ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361743
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso puts his hand on his ear at a news conference after attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation finance ministers meeting in Beijing ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361741
Inflation tends to be a little higher in the first six months of the year and a little lower in July through December. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Consumer ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361738
October’s jobs report headlines next week’s economic data. Market observers will be watching to see if the U.S. can continue a streak of impressive job creation.

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361737
Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, says rate-hike timing depends on the economy. Bloomberg News

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361739
Sen. Tim Johnson (D., S.D.) Bloomberg News

A U.S. Senate panel will hold a hearing on Nov. 21 over whether financial regulators are too close to or ...

October 31, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1361740
The European Central Bank’s worry is that if prices fall, consumers might be inclined to wait on purchases, removing even more momentum from the economy. Bloomberg ...