Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

December 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1391633
Texas has seen strong growth in recent years, outpacing the U.S. recovery in part thanks to a boom in domestic oil production. Now a drop in oil prices risks ...

December 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1391547
Delta Air Lines Inc. told investors last week that it expects pretax income to jump 11% next year. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Are you hoping falling oil prices ...

December 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1391546
Atlantic County, N.J., recorded the largest decline in employment through the first half of the year, largely due to job cuts at casinos. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Employment ...

December 18, 2014, 11:03 am, 1391470
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, asked Wednesday what “patient” meant, said the Fed would not begin hiking rates for “a couple” of meetings. Pressed further, she confirmed “a couple” means two.

December 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1391393
In both the U.K and U.S., policy makers expect tightening labor markets to result in a pickup in wages that will translate into higher consumer prices.

December 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1391391

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Thursday, December 18, 2014:

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Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen Playbook Puts Slack Over Oil Price Declines Fed Sets Stage for Rate ...

December 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1391392

What are they?

Central banks typically set multiple interest rates, including on the loans they extend to banks and the rate they pay on excess reserves parked at the central bank. When they install a negative deposit rate, ...

December 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1391322

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said she has “great confidence” in Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley, responding to questions about scrutiny the regional Fed bank is facing for its ties to large financial institutions and its performance in supervising them.

Mr. Dudley has “done a fine job ...

December 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1391320

The Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to tiptoe slowly toward interest-rate increases generated a significant and rare level of insurrection among its membership.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher was ...

December 18, 2014, 7:03 am, 1391321

Federal Reserve officials said Wednesday they would be “patient” as they considered when to start raising interest rates next year. But the central bank’s policy statement retained some of its earlier language, mitigating the effect of the shift in wording. Here’s how economists reacted to the ...