Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

April 29, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1631355
The April jobs report highlights a busy week of economic data on world's largest economy.

April 29, 2016, 9:03 am, 1631220

Baby boomers won’t be No. 2 for long.

The tidal wave of births following the end of World War II created the massive generation, which has dominated much of American politics and culture for decades. By the middle of 2015, the baby boom was finally eclipsed in size by the ...

April 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1630858

The homeownership rate fell slightly in the first quarter of 2016, dashing hopes that it had finally hit a bottom.

In the first three months of this year, the rate was at 63.5%, not seasonally adjusted. That is down from 63.8% in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to estimates ...

April 28, 2016, 11:03 am, 1630808

U.S. GDP posted its weakest showing since the first quarter of 2014, with a growth rate of 0.5% for the first quarter of 2016. But a slow first quarter has been something of a pattern in recent years, followed by a pickup in later quarters. Economists were divided over whether ...

April 28, 2016, 9:03 am, 1630765
The U.S. economy expanded in the first quarter, but with the weakest performance in two years.

April 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1630519

In more than a quarter of the nation’s metropolitan areas, the jobless rate is higher than it was a year ago as the fallout from the fracking downturn drifts outward.

In March, 98 out of 387 metro areas had unemployment rates higher than in March 2015, the Labor Department said Wednesday. ...

April 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1630468

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...

April 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1630467

Federal Reserve officials voted to hold rates steady at the conclusion of their two-day policy meeting Wednesday. They appear to be in no rush to move them higher in the weeks ahead amid signs of slower economic activity and lingering concerns about inflation and global developments. Here’s what economists ...

April 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1630387

A deep decline in America’s industrial output may not signal a recession is coming, for once.

U.S. industrial production, the Federal Reserve’s gauge of manufacturing, mining and utility output fell 1.8% in the first quarter, from a year earlier.

That’s an ominous sign.

Industrial production has never plunged so deeply in a ...

April 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1630341
The Commerce Department releases its first estimate of gross domestic product growth during the opening months of the year on Thursday. Here's what to watch.