Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338339

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Friday he’d like to the see the U.S. central bank begin to raise rates early next year, in an interview on Fox Business Network.

When it comes to making the first move to lift interest rates off of their current near ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338340

The Federal Reserve should sell its holdings of mortgage bonds as it tightens monetary policy, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said Friday, so that it might move away from what he sees as the inappropriate allocation of credit to a specific sector in the economy.

Mr. Lacker, considered an inflation hawk, ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338341

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, September 19, 2014:

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Da Costa’s Take: Market Frets Over Hawkish Dots Despite Dismissive Yellen Yellen Highlights Deepening U.S. ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338342
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New Zealanders go to the polls Saturday. Here are five things to know about the election and its impact on the economy.


The ruling National Party is ahead in the polls but ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338338

The best way to expand technology use in developing countries is to boost local research and development spending, right? Nope. It’s to hand out more visas.

That’s according to a new paper by University of Colorado economics professor Keith Maskus, who argues that allowing freer movement of skilled workers across ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338337

Higher levels of student debt will reduce U.S. home sales by around 8% this year, according to a report released Friday by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, an advisory firm.

The ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338334
Economic reports scheduled for next week will offer new looks at the spring growth spurt, August home sales and durable goods activity. In addition, a slew of Federal Reserve officials are set to speak about the economy and monetary policy. Here are five points of interest on tap next week:

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338335

Newark, N.J., leads the pack of U.S. cities with the highest share of residents who don’t use banks, a new report shows.

There have long been concerns—both in the government and in the banking industry—about the number of households that lack access to the U.S. banking system, with many efforts to ...

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338336

The unemployment rate has fallen sharply across the U.S. over the year, but some states performed far better than others.

Among the 50 states, joblessness fell fastest in Illinois, which saw its unemployment rate drop to 6.7% in August from 9.2% a year earlier.

As of August, North Dakota had the

September 20, 2014, 1:03 am, 1338333

Banking regulators have spent much of their post-crisis time focusing on Wall Street balance sheets. Now they’re taking aim at banks’ culture as well.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will hold a conference on October 20 on bank ethics and culture, according to people familiar with the event. A ...