Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”


July 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1307542

The head of the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday questioned whether Greece still needs debt relief, saying that a review of the country’s economy in the coming weeks would determine if Athens’ debt stock is sustainable without help from creditors.


July 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1307466
Economists early Wednesday will get their first peek at how the U.S. economy fared in the second quarter, an important gauge of where the country is heading after the abrupt downturn earlier this year.


July 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1307465

Cities in the southeastern U.S. have the biggest share of consumers with unpaid debt, a new report says.

The Urban Institute, a Washington-based think tank, published a detailed report on Tuesday on the level of delinquent debt around the country. (See related post on the WSJ Numbers blog).

The ...


July 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1307383

Germany’s global image is better than ever. Industry is booming, unemployment is at a record low since reunification and, to boot, the country just took home its fourth World Cup title.


July 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1307382

The Federal Reserve‘s meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is more about the future than the present.

Policy makers will be debating the appropriate time to begin raising interest rates, as well as the best tools to use when that time comes. But don’t expect them to reveal details of those discussions in ...


July 29, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1307305

As expected, the pace of U.S. home price gains has slowed this year. Prices rose 9.3% from a year earlier in May in 20 cities tracked by the Standard & ...


July 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1307221
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The “virtuous cycle” for Japan’s economic recovery seems to be spinning a little slower these days.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the grand Abenomics experiment is faltering. ...


July 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1307220

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Tuesday, July 29, 2014:

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Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Tame Inflation Expectations a Trump Card for Fed’s Doves New Bank of England ...


July 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1307218

The Bank of Korea’s dovish shift has been officially put on record.

On Tuesday, minutes of the central bank’s July 10 policy board meeting revealed Chung Hae-bang as the first board member in over a year to oppose a decision to keep rates on hold.

“A comprehensive review of recent conditions shows ...


July 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1307219

As expected, the pace of U.S. home price gains has slowed this year. Prices rose 9.3% from a year earlier in May in 20 cities tracked by the Standard & ...