Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”


October 24, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357203

If you saw a public-opinion poll that had a 15.7% margin of error, you probably wouldn’t take it too seriously. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, for example, had a respectable 3.1% margin of error for registered voters.


October 24, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357204

Home sales rose to their highest annual pace in September in six years, but the new-home market is still depressed by historical standards.

To get a sense of just ...


October 24, 2014, 11:03 am, 1357127
Congress and the president put off the hard choices of what spending to cut and what to increase. “We seem to be drifting into the changes,” CBO Director Douglas ...


October 24, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357053
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Figures released on Friday showed U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Here are five things of note.

#1: A Respectable Performance

The U.K. economy was 0.7% larger in the third quarter than in the ...


October 24, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357052

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, October 24, 2014:

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Highlights

Blackstone’s Take: ECB Hopes Its Credibility Can End Europe’s Banking Stress Fed’s 2015 Stress Test ...


October 24, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357051
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, center, took more than two weeks off before the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Aug. 23. Associated Press

How does ...


October 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1356972

LONDON—A senior Bank of England official Thursday pushed back against critics who claim central bank policies only benefit the wealthy.

Those critics say ultralow interest rates and central-bank asset purchases have fueled a surge in asset prices without spurring durable economic growth, benefiting the rich yet doing little for the wider ...


October 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1356964
The time frame around Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s inflation goal is looking increasingly fuzzy. Bloomberg News

The magic number was “two” when the Bank of ...


October 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1356962
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Figures released on Friday showed U.K. economic growth slowed in the third quarter. Here are five things of note.

#1: A Respectable Performance

The U.K. economy was 0.7% larger in the third quarter than in the ...


October 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1356963
The German economy’s strong focus on the car industry is also a risk, says Clemens Fuest, director of the Centre for European Economic Research. “If this market stops growing ...