Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

October 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1355730

Mortgage holders in the U.K. don’t appear to be losing sleep over fear that the Bank of England will increase interest rates soon, according to a survey released Thursday.

The poll by research firm YouGov PLC in association with the Council of Mortgage Lenders found 60% of ...

October 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1355658

Policy makers and economy-watchers now seem more worried about disinflation rather than accelerating inflation. That wasn’t the expectation at the start of the year. In January, economists surveyed by The Wall Street ...

October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355581

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wednesday that veteran official Christine Cumming will retire next summer.

Ms. Cumming, currently first vice president and chief operating officer at the bank, has worked there for 35 years, holding numerous positions. She worked primarily on bank operations and payments systems, as well ...

October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355582

Roughly 10% of U.S. children were living with a grandparent in 2012, up from 7% in 1992, according to a report from the Census Bureau released Wednesday.

The increase stems partly ...

October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355580
A vendor displays a souvenir with pictures of Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and the late Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong to visitors at the underpass outside the Great ...

October 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1355429

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Wednesday, October 22, 2014:

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Quote of the Day: “In 30-40 years, the Fed will admit they caused the Great Recession”—Cato Institute CEO John Allison

October 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1355428

Americans who receive Social Security benefits will see a modest increase in their checks next year to cover higher consumer prices.

The annual cost-of-living adjustment will likely amount to 1.7% for 2015,

October 22, 2014, 7:03 am, 1355350
Japanese Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura Bloomberg News

The yen is likely to weaken further due to differences of monetary policies in the U.S. and Japan, but ...

October 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1355281
A worker at a textile factory in Jiujiang, Jiangxi province. Zuma Press

China’s economy slowed down a fraction in the third quarter of the year. If you ...

October 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1355280
Traders work in the crude oil and natural gas options pit on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Getty Images

The recent sharp fall in ...