Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

August 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1667986

Twenty years ago, Janet Yellen was the unorthodox one. As a governor under then-Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, she was one of the first Fed officials to challenge central banking consensus that the right inflation rate is zero, arguing instead for 2%.

Today, 2% is orthodoxy. The Fed formally committed to ...

August 26, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1667948

A fresh batch of the nation’s largest employers is joining a White House effort to lift women’s earnings.

Some 29 companies including General Motors, Apple, Facebook, Target and Visa have signed a White House pledge to conduct an annual gender pay analysis designed to eliminate inequitable compensation.

The companies also agreed ...

August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667819

Advocates for workers who care for children before kindergarten have repeatedly groused this mostly female workforce is underpaid. Now, they’re pointing to inequities among the underpaid.

A report being released Friday says African-American female teachers who work full time in the early childhood workforce make 84 cents for every dollar earned ...

August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667818
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower pace in the second quarter than previously thought, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's how.

August 25, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1667708

Despite a slowdown in the growth rate of overall national health expenditures, Americans are seeing more of their paychecks go to health-care costs.

The increase is largely thanks to cost-shifting through higher deductibles in plans offered by employers, which cover the majority of workers and their families. The trend has ...

August 25, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667568

The latest sign the U.S. labor market is returning to normal, seven years after the recession ended: More workers who lose a job are able to find a new one.

Some 7.4 million people lost jobs between January 2013 and December 2015, including 3.2 million who were laid off from positions ...

August 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1667524

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has broken with many of the GOP’s traditional positions on economic policy, garners no support from any of the White House economists who have advised U.S. presidents for the past half-century.

The Wall Street Journal this month reached out to all 45 surviving former members of the White House 

August 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1667523

The Wall Street Journal reached out to 45 economists who have served on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, under both Republican and Democratic presidents, to ask about this year’s presidential election. Most Democratic appointees said they supported Hillary Clinton, while no Republican appointees openly supported Donald Trump. ...

August 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667153

Miss Daisy could be your next Uber driver.

More than 400,000 Americans ages 65 and older earn income from digital platforms such as Uber and Airbnb. and those seniors are more reliant on such gigs than their younger peers, according to a new report from the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

The report, which ...

August 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1666893

Team USA’s dominant performance at the Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympic Games didn’t stop a trend that had been spreading medals more equally among nations.

The same formula often used to measure income inequality among households is a handy tool for comparing the distribution of Olympic medals.

Measured by the Gini ...