Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

May 22, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1479128

The Commerce Department on Friday said it is planning a series of steps to smooth out statistical quirks that may be affecting quarterly gross domestic product data.

The move could make first (and fourth) quarters of the year a little less bad and the rest of the year a little ...

May 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479046

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, May 22, 2015:

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Blackstone’s Take: ECB Turns Up Heat on Governments Fed Proposes Relaxing Rules Impacting Municipal Bonds

May 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479044
Pedestrians walk down Oxford Street in central London. BOE Gov. Mark Carney said much of the recent weakness in U.K. inflation has been due to food and energy prices.

May 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479045
At high-school graduations across the country a familiar question will be asked: What’s next? The collective answer will offer some clues about the labor market for young people, and even their future earnings.

May 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479043
Shoppers—who probably do not even know the shape of the U.S. income distribution or the Gini coefficient—look at jewelry at the Cartier store on Rodeo ...

May 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479042
Students study math at the Ridings Federation Winterbourne International Academy in South Gloucestershire, England, in February. MATT CARDY/GETTY IMAGES

It’s an age-old tradeoff in economics: Should a ...

May 22, 2015, 9:03 am, 1478960
Fed officials debated whether there is a lower, ‘new normal’ level of neutral interest rates at their April meeting, minutes showed.  J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Did the ...

May 22, 2015, 9:03 am, 1478959
The ECB will no longer distribute to journalists advance copies of speeches under embargo following a snafu earlier this week with a speech by Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré.

May 22, 2015, 9:03 am, 1478957
Toledo, Ohio, continued to shrink in 2013-14, according to analysis of Census Bureau data by demographer William Frey. JOSHUA A. BICKEL FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

As ...

May 22, 2015, 9:03 am, 1478958
The 2010 Dodd-Frank law created the new vice chairman post at the Fed’s seven-member board of governors. J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen ...