Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”


July 21, 2014, 1:03 am, 1303758

The share of U.S. firms giving pay raises has nearly tripled since last fall, according to a new survey of business economists by the National Association for Business Economics, though official data on U.S. workers’ earnings haven’t shown any broad acceleration in wage growth.

Some 43% of the NABE members ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303570

The world’s largest maker of bicycle helmets is doing something it hasn’t done in over a decade. It’s making some of its headgear entirely out of U.S.-made parts.

courtesy ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303571

Deciding when something can be called “Made in USA” is harder than you might think. You can thank both the Federal Trade Commission and the state of California for that.


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303572

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, July 18, 2014:

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Highlights

Hilsenrath’s Take: Economists’ Interest Rate Expectations Move Higher Fed’s Bullard: Fed May Need Rate Rises ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303569

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, last year announced it would spend $250 billion more over the next decade on U.S.-made goods and rallied suppliers with revival-style meetings that emphasized the importance of creating good-paying jobs at American factories. The initiative has already ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303568

Most U.S. states in June still hadn’t regained all the jobs lost in the recession that ended five years earlier, the latest reminder of the recovery’s unevenness.

But one particularly important state reached that milestone last month: California, the nation’s largest labor market accounting for about 11% all of U.S. jobs, ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303565
The economic calendar slims down next week. A few key releases will focus on housing demand, consumer inflation, and factory activity for July. Here are five points worth contemplating when the numbers come down.


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303566

Hillary Clinton said in an interview with Charlie Rose that the difference between Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan‘s presidencies were “night and day in terms of the effects, the number of jobs that were created, the number of people lifted out of poverty — 100 times more when Bill ...


July 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1303567

If Hillary Clinton runs for president, expect to see lots of claims about the growth record of Bill Clinton‘s presidency. The economy enjoyed a long economic expansion in the 1990s and Mrs. Clinton will seek to remind voters of the gains of that era.

She aired one of those claims ...


July 19, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1303533
The economic calendar slims down next week. A few key releases will focus on housing demand, consumer inflation, and factory activity for July. Here are five points worth contemplating when the numbers come down.