Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

September 1, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1537549
New Orleans was the only major metropolitan area to have lost jobs in July compared with a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday. MARIO TAMA/GETTY IMAGES

New Orleans ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537389
International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde speaks in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Tuesday. BAY ISMOYO/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

When questions about the fate of the global economy arise, the ...

September 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1537388
A steelworker maneuvers around metal trusses at Taylor University in Upland, Ind., in August. JEFF MOREHEAD/THE CHRONICLE-TRIBUNE VIA AP

U.S. construction spending rose to the highest level ...

August 31, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1536799
Olivier Blanchard, who is soon to leave his post as the IMF’s chief economist. ERIC PIERMONT/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Olivier Blanchard began his tenure as the International Monetary Fund’s ...

August 28, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1535941
Economic indicators that typically pick up the first signs of trouble, such as first-time claims for unemployment insurance, are steady or improving.  CHARLIE RIEDEL/ASSOCIATED PRESS

A wild, ...

August 28, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1535867
The Labor Department’s August employment report offers the last broad snapshot of hiring before the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. The nonfarm payroll and unemployment numbers, as well as reports on factory activity, trade, productivity and regional economic conditions, will be scrutinized for clues on the economy’s health.

August 28, 2015, 11:04 am, 1535708
Wall Street racked up its biggest one-day gain in four years on Aug. 26, after a rout earlier this week. Reuters

In a note to clients this ...

August 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1535628
Inflation has been close to zero in South Korea. JUNG YEON-JE/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

Traditionally, a distinguishing characteristic of an emerging market was the behavior of its currency. In rich ...

August 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1535627
New townhouses in Watford City, N.D., in 2013, were built during the fracking boom. Now the question is: How will the oil-price drop affect home values? ANDREW ...

August 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1535418
Here are five things to watch at the central bankers' gathering, which runs Thursday night through Saturday.