Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

July 28, 2016, 9:03 am, 1658113
U.S. GDP is projected to have advanced at a 2.6% annualized pace this spring, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Here’s what to watch in Friday’s report.

July 27, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1657825

The Federal Reserve held rates steady Wednesday but signaled a brighter outlook for the U.S. economy, suggesting another rate increase in the months ahead. Fed officials said near-term risks to the economy “have diminished” and pointed to better jobs numbers and “moderate” economic growth. Here are some early ...

July 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1657780

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...

July 27, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1657730

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will compete this fall in key battleground states where economic growth has been outpacing the modest national average.

Economic output expanded in early 2016 across the majority of states, including four of the biggest prizes up for grabs in the November presidential election: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania ...

July 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1657690

The American economy isn’t what it used to be.

Since the recession ended, new establishments have accounted for a little more than 11% of all new private-sector jobs created. During the 1990s, the figure was 15%, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday.

That might not seem like a massive shift, but ...

July 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1657646

Record-low yields on U.S. Treasurys have for decades signaled weakness in the U.S. economy and foreshadowed recession. Not this time.

Some economists are pointing to the so-called yield curve—the difference between long-term and short-term rates—as a harbinger of a new slowdown. Yields on 30-year and 10-year Treasurys plumbed record depths earlier this month, setting fresh milestones in ...

July 26, 2016, 11:03 am, 1657242

Donald Trump sees a “big parallel” between the U.K. vote to exit the European Union and his own supporters’ desire to put America first and “take their borders back.” Many other political observers have drawn a line between Brexit and the antitrade and anti-immigrant sentiments now roiling the U.S. election.

The U.K.’s ...

July 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1657193

How the U.S. measures the unemployment rate has often been a political hot button, especially during presidential election years.

That debate was revived this weekend by Donald Trump Jr., the son of the Republican presidential candidate, who said in an interview on CNN that the jobs numbers “are artificial numbers. These ...

July 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1657192

Over the past decade, only a small slice of working-age Americans have landed in jobs offering a mix of good pay and healthy wage gains.

That’s the conclusion of a new study by job-search site Indeed, one that underscores a broad sense of economic discontent among many Americans. Indeed’s researchers ...

July 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1656917

It’s the economy, stupid, and perhaps even more than you thought.

Economists have understated growth’s importance in eroding public debt burdens over time, a new analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics suggests.

Interest payments on outstanding government debt and budget deficits push governments’ debt-to-GDP ratios up, while economic growth drags them ...