Calculated Risk
Read the Bill McBride interview.
Jobs
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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WSJ: Real Time Economics
"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”
May 18, 2013, 1:04 pm, 1095196
The current recovery may be middling, but count Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as an optimist about our economic prospects in the decades to come.
May 18, 2013, 5:05 am, 1095152
The class of 2013 entered college just as the economic recovery was beginning in June 2009, but while their job prospects are better than other recent graduates, their debt burden is heavier.
May 17, 2013, 5:04 pm, 1095020
Mexico’s first quarter economic data suggest the rug has been yanked out from under Latin America’s second-largest economy. Although it clearly stumbled in the opening months of 2013, it’s poised to quickly recover its footing, if not to run as fast this year as originally expected.
May 17, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1094947
The Powerball jackpot is up to $600 million, with a day still to go before tomorrow’s drawing. Which means it’s time once again to ask the question: Is this the rare time where it makes economic sense to buy a ticket?
May 17, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1094946
Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota stressed the importance of the Fed maintaining low interest rates and a substantial stimulus program as the economy still undergoes what he called a "not-so-great recovery," in prepared remarks.
May 17, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1094944
Federal Reserve officials are paying close attention to America’s mounting student debt load.
May 17, 2013, 3:04 pm, 1094945
The U.S. government will bump up against the federal debt limit this weekend, though a series of emergency steps will allow it to continue paying all of the nation's bills until at least early September, Treasury Secretary Lew said .
May 17, 2013, 1:04 pm, 1094872
The job market is getting better in most of the country -- but not quickly, and not evenly.
May 17, 2013, 1:04 pm, 1094871
WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath previews Ben Bernanke’s trip to Capitol Hill next week, and the key questions he faces: how and when to wind down the Fed’s quantitative-easing program, and how to get more Americans back to work.
May 17, 2013, 11:04 am, 1094800
A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
