Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

September 27, 2017, 3:46 pm, 1780148

Global trade growth is rebounding strongly this year, with demand from the U.S. and the European Union boosting Asian manufacturers, but questions remain about the sustainability of the upswing.

The World Trade Organization last week said worldwide merchandise volume is set to increase 3.6% this year, greatly outpacing the 1.3% rise ...

September 27, 2017, 1:06 pm, 1780013

The International Monetary Fund’s researchers have a message for the world’s economic policy makers: the weak wage growth in their economies is a sign that it’s still premature to worry about inflation or to take steps that may add slack back into their labor markets.

A study looking at the slow ...

September 26, 2017, 8:07 pm, 1779776

Around the world, hundreds of millions of students are spending years in school while learning virtually nothing, and many countries are neglecting to even measure their progress, the World Bank warned in its flagship annual economic development report.

“Hundreds of millions of children reach young adulthood without even the most basic ...

September 26, 2017, 7:26 am, 1779421

Weakness in the labor market doesn’t adequately explain why fewer men are working or seeking jobs, according to a new paper published by economist Scott Winship and the Mercatus Center at George Mason University.

One big contributor is the rising number of men in their prime working years–aged 25 to ...

September 25, 2017, 11:46 am, 1779158

New research suggests programs aimed at helping low-income U.S. children, such as Head Start early childhood education and Medicaid health coverage, may have benefits not only for participating children but for their children as well.

A recent working paper found the 1980s expansion of Medicaid programs to cover more low-income ...

September 22, 2017, 1:06 pm, 1778375

Millions of Americans will likely get a slighter larger bump in their Social Security checks next year because Hurricane Harvey roared across the Gulf Coast this summer.

Gasoline prices jumped as the storm hit Texas and Louisiana in late August, disrupting fuel shipments and shutting down refineries. The price jump may prove temporary, but ...

September 20, 2017, 5:06 pm, 1777747

For an increasing share of older Americans, retirement might be around the corner, but so is a new job: unpaid care for the elderly.

The share of Americans age 65 and over providing unpaid eldercare increased to 19.1% in 2015-16 from 16.3% in 2011-12. The share also rose for Americans age ...

September 20, 2017, 2:07 pm, 1777638

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the ...

September 19, 2017, 10:08 am, 1777104

Leaders of the U.S.’s largest companies plan to ramp up hiring in the coming months, as management teams eye regulatory rollbacks and the possibility of a tax overhaul.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook’s employment measure, which gauges chief executives’ hiring plans, rose to 80.2 in the third quarter of 2017, ...

September 15, 2017, 7:46 am, 1775954

Americans aren’t moving. Or, rather, millennials aren’t.

New Census Bureau estimates show the share of Americans who moved to a different residence last year fell to its lowest point in the past decade.

And, by a very similar measure, the past decade has been, by far, the lowest in the ...