Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”


September 27, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1679050

Charles L. Schultze, the top economic adviser to President Jimmy Carter for his entire presidency and a budget director for President Lyndon B. Johnson, died Tuesday at age 91.

Mr. Schultze, who was also a longtime scholar at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington, served in the White House during two ...


September 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1678882

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has leveraged the economic pain caused by China’s rise into voter support by promising to aggressively challenge the Asian giant as a fundamental threat to the U.S. economy.

But the agony of the past isn’t the threat of the future. Instead of China’s rise, the ...


September 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1678881
Ordinary economic weakness is responsible for as much as three-quarters of the collapse in trade between the precrisis years starting in 2003 and the postcrisis years, the International Monetary Fund says.


September 27, 2016, 9:03 am, 1678834

Hillary Clinton came to Monday night’s debate with a label for Donald Trump’s tax plan, twice calling it “trumped-up, trickle-down” economics. Mr. Trump’s defense: It works.

The candidates quickly touched on other tax issues that divide them: business taxation, estate taxes and what Mr. Trump’s plan would do to ...


September 27, 2016, 7:03 am, 1678802

Monday’s presidential debate featured two sharply different portraits of the U.S. economy, offering voters a choice not only on the details of trade and tax policy but also on which assessment best reflects the state of the nation.

Hillary Clinton characterized the economy as improving—and nearing a turn towards breakout growth—from a painful ...


September 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1678664

This year’s presidential election features not only sharp disagreements over immigration, taxes and trade, but competing views of the U.S. economy.

Donald Trump has offered an unusually bleak picture of a nation slipping into nearly irreversible decline. Hillary Clinton has pointed to recent gains in the aftermath of the 2008 financial ...


September 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1678489

A new analysis estimates Hillary Clinton’s tax and spending proposals would have a relatively modest effect on the national debt, while Donald Trump’s fiscal plans would sharply boost deficits and the debt over the next decade.

The report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan group ...


September 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1678036

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine this week released a report looking at the economic and fiscal implications of immigration to the U.S.  The findings suggest benefits for the immigrants themselves and the broader U.S. economy, but also acknowledge costs for state and local governments. Here ...


September 23, 2016, 11:03 am, 1677997

One of the big criticisms of the current economic expansion—and also the one that ran from 2001 through 2007—is that most of the gains accrued to the best off, unleashing a populist groundswell in the presidential election campaign.

The White House lays out the case in a new report that


September 22, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1677712

Americans are accumulating less seniority in their workplaces—and that could be good news about the health of the U.S. labor market.

Median employee tenure, the length of time a worker has been with his or her current employer, was 4.2 years in January, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was ...