Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”


August 21, 2014, 3:03 am, 1322124

 

Bloomberg News

Is Japan’s economic revival experiment still on track? One crucial gauge: whether worker pay is rising.  Fresh, little-noticed data out this week makes the ...


August 21, 2014, 1:03 am, 1322096

South Korea’s boom in exports to China appears to be finally fizzling out.

In an unusually candid trade report early this month, the trade ministry said it was “concerned” about a sustained fall in exports to China, Seoul’s biggest trade partner. Shipments shrank 7% in July from a year earlier, the ...


August 21, 2014, 1:03 am, 1322095
Local residents walk out of a supermarket in downtown Shanghai August 20, 2014. China posted mild consumer inflation on August 9, well below the annual target in July, giving ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322049

August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322048

U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second half of 2013 before unexpectedly contracting early this year. But growth late last year was uneven across the nation, with some energy-rich states leading the pack while economies slowed in New England and on the Plains.

That’s according to new data released ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322050
The Reserve Bank of Australia headquarters in Sydney. Bloomberg News

Investors have increasingly been pricing in a rate cut in Australia, as the nation ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322045

Most states in the U.S. have experienced at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline in the years since the national recession ended, according to new data from the Department of Commerce. Two consecutive quarters of contracting gross domestic product is a common rule of thumb for a recession (though ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322044

South Korea’s boom in exports to China appears to be finally fizzling out.

In an unusually candid trade report early this month, the trade ministry said it was “concerned” about a sustained fall in exports to China, Seoul’s biggest trade partner. Shipments shrank 7% in July from a year earlier, the ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322046

Just like Christmas dinners, monetary policy meetings at central banks are often pictured as gatherings full of suspense, conflict and heated debates.

Indeed, the decision on whether to raise interest rates after a period of cheap money has traditionally sparked heartfelt disagreement, and did so again at the Bank of England’s ...


August 20, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1322047

A recent spike in subprime auto lending does not look excessive, considering gains in the broader car industry, according to economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Overall lending in the auto sector approached an eight-year high in the second quarter while mortgage lending hit a 14-year low—confounding economists ...