Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260176

Almost three out of five Americans are worried about having enough gold for their golden years.

A poll released by Gallup Tuesday shows 59% of respondents were very or moderately worried about having enough money for retirement. That has been the top financial concern since the turn of the century. The ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260177

An analysis from economists at Goldman Sachs shows how the degree to which mortgage lending standards ease over the next few years could make for a big difference in home sales volumes.

New home sales in March posted a surprising plunge from February, dropping 14.5%, and leaving ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260178

Economists have been disappointed by a string of weaker-than-expected home-sales reports. Sales of existing homes dropped in March, including in parts of the country that weren’t hit by cold weather this winter. Sales of new homes, reported Wednesday, were down 13.3% from a year earlier to their lowest ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260179

The euro zone has seen its fair share of “angst of the week” moments over the past couple of years (to borrow a phrase used by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi).

Ultra-low inflation, or “lowflation,” as the International Monetary Fund has dubbed it, may be the latest.

The annual rate of ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260175

A shortage of Treasury securities is driving very strong demand for a tool the Federal Reserve is testing in hopes that it may one day give the central bank better control over short-term interest rates.

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260174
Pedestrians walk past the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo. Bloomberg News

Japanese banks are becoming more insulated against losses that could emerge from a sudden rise ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260171

Australia’s government needs to be careful not to cut spending too deeply in next month’s budget for fiscal 2014-15, as the economy still faces major challenges, a member of the central bank’s policy board told The Wall Street Journal.

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260172

The strong New Zealand dollar may be the thing that ends up putting the brakes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s tightening cycle.

The dairy industry is helping New ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260173

A roundup of economic news on Asia and emerging markets from around the Web.

Human Capital and Income Inequality: Literacy efforts in developing countries have helped halve  the inequality in education  distribution from 1950 to 2010 – yet income inequality has hardly changed. Amparo Castelló-Climent and Rafael Doménech explain why.

China’s Currency Conundrum: Fully ...

April 24, 2014, 7:03 am, 1260170

The transition of Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Per Jansson from interest rate hawk to dove continues.

Minutes from the April policy meeting show he was whisker away from joining colleagues Karolina Ekholm and Martin Floden in calling for a rate cut to get Sweden’s low inflation rate moving higher.

The main ...