Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

May 25, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639834

Simply raising the minimum wage won’t be enough to solve the country’s affordable housing crisis for low-income renters.

Even in cities that have raised the hourly minimum wage, the amount earned continues to fall well short of what is needed to afford an apartment, according to a report to be ...

May 25, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1639789

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523im_M_20160523114130.jpg" caption="Protesters take part in a demonstration against the reform package in front of the Greek Parliament in Athens this week. Greece struck a deal Wednesday to unlock desperately-needed bailout funds for the debt-ridden nation." credit="Angelos Tzortzinis/Agence France-Presse" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

The International Monetary Fund acted tough on Greek debt ...

May 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1639698

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rade0_M_20160524194701.jpg" caption="Faster data on trade and inventories should make early GDP readings more reliable." credit="SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

The U.S. government is expanding its effort to minimize surprises when estimating the nation’s economic growth.

About a month after each quarter ends, the Commerce Department puts out an initial estimate for ...

May 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639650

The Obama administration’s push to secure debt relief for Puerto Rico to boost the island’s sagging economy is clashing with its effort to push for higher U.S. wage floors.

Legislation moving through Congress to tackle Puerto Rico’s debt crisis would exempt the island from new overtime-pay rules unveiled by the Obama administration. ...

May 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1639373

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omen0_M_20160524110338.jpg" caption="" credit="TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

Last week, we wrote about how women in elite occupations often see a bigger pay discrepancy from male coworkers than women working in other professions. We then asked readers to share their experiences with the gender wage gap. More than ...

May 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1639284

Many Americans are struggling under huge monthly student-debt bills. But they are a sizeable minority, not the norm.

That’s the conclusion of research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The typical borrower between ages 20 and 30 pays $203 a month toward student debt. Three-quarters of borrowers pay no ...

May 23, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1639105

Temporary help has been among the fastest-growing sectors of the labor market since the recession ended, but the distribution of those employees hired by staffing agencies is uneven across states.

Temp workers accounted for more than 2% of total U.S. employment late last year—the highest level on records back to the early ...

May 23, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1639065

U.S. factories have seen better days. Slow global growth and a strong dollar are weighing on manufacturers’ international ambitions. But a solid U.S. job market and still-low interest rates are supporting factories focused on domestic customers. That divide, as the Journal reported Monday, is showing up throughout recent manufacturing ...

May 23, 2016, 9:03 am, 1638934

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opgol_M_20160520163551.jpg" caption="Economics can't explain the rise of Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential campaign and Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964." credit=" Tom Lynn/Getty Images (left) and Charles Tasnadi/Associated Press" placement="Inline" suppressEnlarge="false" ]

Those of us who do economics for a living turn to it to answer all the ...

May 20, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1638480
The coming week will bring economic news on first-quarter business profits, consumer sentiment and Federal Reserve speakers looking toward their June meeting.