Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Real Time Economics

"Economic insight and analysis from the Wall Street Journal.”

March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446425

FRANKFURT—German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said it isn’t fair for international finance officials to support European Central Bank quantitative easing, while at the same time criticizing Germany’s current account surplus, given that the former causes the latter to rise.

Speaking in Frankfurt, Mr. Schäuble said that “the immediate consequence” of QE ...

March 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1446426
Chinese President Xi Jingping and Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam in Beijing at a signing ceremony for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, last October. Getty Images

Are ...

March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446345

LONDON–A senior Bank of England official said Friday the chances of a damaging bout of falling prices in the U.K. are slim.

Ben Broadbent, the central bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy, said a recent slowdown in annual inflation in the U.K. has been driven largely by the fall in oil ...

March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446344

The Federal Reserve’s No. 2 official urged regulators to be vigilant in monitoring risks outside the traditional banking system even though ...

March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446343

The Wall Street Journal’s Daily Report on Global Central Banks for Friday, March 27, 2015:

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Derby’s Take: Lockhart Explains How He Became Fed’s “Bellwether” Lockhart Says Dollar Rise Becoming ...

March 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1446342
U.S. economic output expanded at a 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the final months of 2014, the Commerce Department said Friday. Here's a quick look at the report.

March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446288
A shopper uses Apple Pay to make a purchase. A new report by the Federal Reserve finds Americans are increasingly comfortable using their cell phones for banking and payments.

March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446287

Two sorts of income inequality have preoccupied scholars in recent years. The first is the growing gap between top earners and those in the middle and at the bottom. The second  is the gap between all of labor on the one hand, and capital (such as profits, interest and rent) ...

March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446285

ZURICH–Negative interest rates implemented by the Swiss National Bank two months ago would require more time before they succeed in weakening the franc, a member of the bank’s governing board said on ...

March 27, 2015, 7:03 am, 1446286

The Federal Reserve should be very cautious about raising interest rates just because the headline unemployment rate is falling, according to new research from two former central bank officials who are concerned the often-cited figure vastly overstates improvements in the job market.

David Blanchflower, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former ...