Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”


February 28, 2015, 2:44 am, 1430876

The large international imbalances accumulated in the Eurozone have proven difficult to unwind during the recent Crisis. This column argues that market reforms had a role in generating current account imbalances, and that patterns of relative labour market regulation could be equally important in the aftermath of the Crisis.


February 28, 2015, 2:44 am, 1430877

There is a debate among economists about the effects of serfdom on economic development. This column sheds light on this debate using novel dataset from 19th-century Russia. The findings indicate that serfdom was a crucial factor causing economic slowdown. The abolishment of serfdom was followed by a sharp increase in ...


February 27, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1430566

The Great Recession has been characterised by an unprecedented decline in GDP, and unemployment rates remain above pre-Great Recession levels in many countries. This column argues that economic growth is a ‘one size fits all’ solution for the problem of unemployment, because the unemployment rates of different kinds of workers ...


February 27, 2015, 2:44 am, 1430138

There is no consensus among economists on the forces that drove the historical rise of US house prices and household debt that preceded the Global Crisis. In this column, the authors argue that the fundamental factor behind that boom was an increase in the supply of mortgage credit. This rise ...


February 26, 2015, 8:44 am, 1429438

A minor adverse shock to financial markets can be propagated by liquidity strains, leading to a major crisis. This column suggests a novel measure to address systemic liquidity risk – a Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer, which would require financial institutions to hold systemically liquid assets in proportion to their liabilities less ...


February 26, 2015, 12:44 am, 1429234

Recessions are contagious, but little is known about how adverse shocks spread through production networks. This column presents quantitative evidence on inter-firm contagion using natural disasters as exogenous instruments. Adverse shocks to upstream suppliers lower sales growth and valuation of a downstream firm.


February 26, 2015, 12:44 am, 1429236

The literature on fiscal multipliers has expanded greatly since the outbreak of the Global Crisis. This column reports on a meta-regression analysis of fiscal multipliers collected from a broad set of empirical reduced form models. Multiplier estimates are significantly higher during economic downturns. Spending multipliers exceed tax multipliers, especially during ...


February 26, 2015, 12:44 am, 1429235

Discrimination can be costly for both victims and perpetrators. This column uses the variation of historical Jewish persecution across German counties to proxy for localised distrust in financial markets. Persecution reduces the average stock market participation rate of households by 7.5%–12%. This striking effect is stable over time, across cohorts, ...


February 25, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1429145

The labour market outcomes of Israeli Arabs, who are mostly Muslim, are negative in terms of participation, employment, and wages. There is a significant gap between their outcomes and those of the majority in Israeli society. CEPR Policy Insight 78 shows that government policy may make a big difference through ...


February 25, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1429143

The labour market outcomes of Israeli Arabs, who are mostly Muslim, are negative in terms of participation, employment, and wages. There is a significant gap between their outcomes and those of the majority in Israeli society. This column introduces CEPR Policy Insight 78, which shows that government policy may make a ...