Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”


April 19, 2015, 2:44 am, 1457778

The inflow of low-skilled migrants may encourage natives to upgrade their skills, taking advantage of immigrant-native complementarity. This column uses exogenous dispersion of refugees in Denmark to investigate this issue. The findings confirm that for low-skilled native workers, the presence of refugee-country immigrants spurred mobility and increased specialisation into complex ...


April 18, 2015, 6:44 am, 1457595

Business investment in advanced economies contracted sharply during the global crisis and has recovered little since. This column argues that the main factor holding back investment is overall economomic weakness. In some countries other contributing factors include financial constraints and policy uncertainty. Fixing the investment dearth will require fixing the ...


April 17, 2015, 12:44 am, 1456901

An oft expressed view is that the Eurozone is a straitjacket on periphery members and income convergence has slowed, halted or reversed.  This column argues that EZ convergence never stopped. What changed was the type of convergence. Today’s convergence is neither nominal nor real, it is structural.  Structural convergence presents ...


April 16, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1456777

One often heard counter to the concern on rising income and wealth inequality is that it is wrong to focus on inequality of outcomes in a “snapshot.” Intergenerational mobility and “equality of opportunity”, so the argument goes, is what matters for normative evaluation. We ask what pattern of intergenerational mobility ...


April 16, 2015, 2:44 am, 1456208

Whereas some argue there is no need to revise the US constitution, others believe that its inherent flaws are in the core of the US’ decreasing power. This column reviews four alleged flaws of the US constitution. Even though none of these flaws are present in the example of Iceland, ...


April 15, 2015, 6:44 am, 1455628

This report, the first in the Monitoring the Eurozone series, addresses the measures Eurozone countries need to take to guard against returning financial instability that could threaten a sustainable recovery. The authors consider stock operations, lending structures and regulatory changes in protecting sovereign debt on a national and Europe-wide level.


April 15, 2015, 6:44 am, 1455627

The Eurozone’s problems of poor growth and the threat of financial instability are rooted in its very foundation. The authors of the inaugural Monitoring the Eurozone report, launched today, consider three means by which the Eurozone can protect itself from structural failure. Their recommendations, which do not require Treaty changes, ...


April 15, 2015, 12:44 am, 1455509

Despite a significant progress over the past decades, European integration still needs improvement in some areas. This column presents a long-term narrative of European integration by using a recently published European index of regional institutional integration. The index maps developments in European integration from 1958 to early 2015 on the ...


April 13, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1454735

International trade has significant effects on domestic labour demand. It opens up new markets for export, but also creates opportunities for off-shoring. This column presents the results of a study on trade, wages and collective bargaining using data on French manufacturing firms. Both exporting and offshoring are found to have ...


April 13, 2015, 2:44 am, 1454138

The reduction in the gender gap in labour market outcomes has stalled. Recent research suggests that gender identity might be one of the culprits. This column provides new evidence on the issue using US census data. The results indicate that the prescription that women should earn less than men plays ...