Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”

September 5, 2015, 12:44 am, 1539637

Deflation is a threat to the macroeconomy. Japan had suffered from deflation for more than a decade, and now, Europe is facing it. To combat deflation under the zero interest bound, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank have resorted to quantitative easing, or increasing the money supply. ...

September 4, 2015, 4:44 am, 1539164

The productivity of a firm depends on its interaction with its suppliers and customers. This column uses unique data from Japan to investigate the wholesalers’ role in transaction networks, considering both sides of the transaction. The likelihood that a firm uses wholesalers increases with smaller buyer-side firms and larger seller-side ...

September 2, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1538351

When looking at the potential effects of a trade policy, trade economists usually insist on the real income effects, often dismissing its unemployment effects as of second-order importance, whereas policymakers and the public at large tend to voice concerns about jobs gained or lost. This column presents a quantitative framework ...

September 2, 2015, 2:44 am, 1537750

Economists tend to focus on reforms that came after 1979 when explaining China’s soaring economic growth. This column argues that they shouldn’t. Mao’s policies also had a huge effect and should not be ignored. Economists and policymakers would do well to look further back in history. A long-term perspective might ...

September 1, 2015, 6:44 am, 1537177

The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they ...

September 1, 2015, 6:44 am, 1537176

A nation’s hard power is based on its ability to coerce, while its soft power depends on the attractiveness of its culture, political ideals, and policies. This column shows that a country’s soft power has measureable effects on its exports. Countries that are admired for their positive global influence export ...

August 31, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1536724

Clinton. Bush. Kennedy. Political family dynasties have survived the establishment of democracies in the developed and developing world and, in some cases, are strengthening. This column argues that political dynasties are still with us, and that it’s fairly easy to see why. Whoever said that elections are the only time ...

August 31, 2015, 12:44 am, 1536445

The Eurozone crisis continues to take centre stage. This column discusses how deep the EZ crisis is, how long it will last, and what should be the policy priorities. A number of findings emerge. First, the difference in labour market performance between the US and the Eurozone is one of ...

August 30, 2015, 6:44 am, 1536301

Economists have been exploring the relationship between prosperity and trust since the 1950s. This column explores the possible relationships, arguing that enhanced economic prosperity acts as a signal that fellow citizens are trustworthy. The more optimistic assessment then breeds trust among individual citizens. This theory suggests the possibility of a ...

August 30, 2015, 2:44 am, 1536254

Early school leaving and criminal behaviour are important social problems. This column argues that delinquency and arrests both lead to early school leaving. The findings show that the overall reduction in education due to delinquency is at least as large as the reduction due to arrest. Crime prevention efforts thus ...