Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774369
Foreign direct investment has generally been found to have positive effects for firms in their home country. There are, however, concerns about potential negative effects for other domestic firms in the investing firm’s supply chain. This column uses Japanese firm-level data to explore the supply chain effects of foreign direct ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774370
Despite the substantial costs associated with subsidised employment programmes targeting low-skilled youths, little is known about their effectiveness in easing school-to-work transitions. This column evaluates the effectiveness of such programmes for high-school dropouts in France with various types of labour market experience. Work experience, even in the market sector, is ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774371
Despite the policy importance of understanding the relationships between them, very little evidence exists on the causal effects siblings have on one another. This column investigates outcomes for families in which the third-born child has a disability, and shows that the oldest children have better educational outcomes than the middle ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774372
A growing literature conjectures that wealthy households earn higher average returns, which can further exacerbate wealth inequality. Using Swedish administrative data, this column shows that the wealthy indeed earn higher returns on their asset portfolios. These high returns are primarily due to high levels of compensated risk. Households at the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774368
Trade union membership has been declining since the 1980s. Recently, however, there has been renewed interest in the potential of collective bargaining to address rising wealth inequality and poor wage growth. This column presents an OECD report on collective bargaining institutions and practices across member countries and selected emerging economies. ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774367
There is strong empirical evidence of a secular rise in intelligence, but a lack of consistently measured data has hampered the identification of a similar increase in non-cognitive skills. Based on an analysis of half a million Finnish males, this column presents evidence that a long-term increase in scores for traits such ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774364
Despite much being done to strengthen the Economic and Monetary Union, it remains incomplete and this is one of the main reasons for the Eurozone's lacklustre economic performance in the recent years. While there are still diverging views on how to "cross the river", there is also a political and ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774365
Around the world, growth has yet to recover to its pre-Global Crisis trend. This column uses the crisis as a quasi-natural experiment to test the endogenous growth hypothesis, which suggests that output has not recovered because the crisis affected the rate of technological progress. Firms that preferred a bank that ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774366
The nature of military and social conflict has changed in the last three decades, particularly in the way it impacts civilians locally. This column presents new research that models localised conflict based on the spatial configuration of groups, using evidence from conflict in Northern Ireland. The model can help target ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774363
The US Treasury recently published the first in a series of reports designed to implement the seven core principles for regulating the US financial system announced in an Executive Order from President Trump. While Trump's stated principles provide an attractive basis for making the financial system both more cost-effective and safer, ...