May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
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Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”
April 14, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1626865
The ECB recently announced a new monetary operation – targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTRO II – that essentially subsidises bank loans to the real economy. This column argues that this ‘cash for loans’ scheme, which might cost up to €24 billion, is unlikely to affect the real economy greatly. ...
April 14, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1626866
Most countries with a generous pay-as-you-go social security system and ageing demographics will need to implement significant welfare reform, such as a major cut in benefits or a significant increase in distortionary taxation. Individuals’ uncertainty about when such a policy change will occur will cause precautionary saving and changes in ...
April 13, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1626500
Many claim that monetary policy has hit diminishing returns. They use that as an explanation for the slower economic growth and low inflation in the Eurozone. This column argues that the main problem is that the ECB acted late and with half-measures to the Global Crisis, which was seen as falling short ...
April 13, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1626499
Some analysts claim that secular stagnation is responsible for the disappointing post-crisis economic performance. This column provides a different explanation that points to an unsuspected villain: the misallocation of resources (in our case, labour) during the pre-crisis financial boom and the long shadow it has cast post-crisis. The findings draw ...
April 13, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1626498
Since the breakup of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s, the housing market has been at the centre of the biggest banking crises across the world. This column considers the nexus between housing, banking, and the economy, and how these ties can be broken. It argues for two modest regulatory ...
April 13, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1626438
Helicopter money is frequently in the headlines but frequently misunderstood. This column reviews the VoxEU columns that have – since 2010 – provided research-based policy analysis of this ‘beyond unconventional’ policy.
April 13, 2016, 12:44 am, 1626155
Financial deregulation in the US has been shown to be associated with rising income inequality over the past four decades. This column looks at the income effects of financial deregulation in the UK and Japan during the 1980s and 1990s. As in the US, deregulation substantially increased the shares of ...
April 12, 2016, 2:44 am, 1625781
The trade literature has long focused on firms’ productivity as an explanation for export performance. But what about the demand side? This column looks at firms’ appeal in terms of quality and consumer taste. Using Belgian firm-level data, it suggests that tastes could account for 45% of the variation in ...
April 11, 2016, 8:44 am, 1625478
Forecasts of business conditions affect investment decisions. This column provides evidence that this is the case in Japan, using firm-level data collected between 2004 and 2014 covering several significant economic events. It also shows that the impacts of business condition forecasts on investment are similar across manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries.
April 11, 2016, 12:44 am, 1625380
Geographic proximity between innovating actors has been shown to facilitate knowledge transfers and spillovers. However, the degree to which these effects are driven by serendipitous encounters has yet to be examined. This column explores this issue for a sample of Norwegian firms. Of the relationships that help firms innovate, fewer ...