Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”

December 25, 2014, 4:44 am, 1394746

The Editors wish to thank all our readers and wish them a healthful and restful holiday break. Vox will start posting again on 2 January 2014.

December 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1394207

The Financial Stability Board’s recent consultative document proposes dividing global systemically important banks into holding companies and operating subsidiaries so as to insulate the latter from a major loss. This column poses the question of what will happen after the holding company is liquidated or written down in order to ...

December 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1394208

There has been interest among both sports fans and academics in whether pressure from home crowds affects decision making of officials. This column investigates this problem using new data from cricket matches. The authors find that neutral umpires decrease the bias against away teams, making neutral officials very important for ...

December 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1394206

Commodity prices have been falling in the US. This column argues that monetary policy has played a determining role in the falling prices trend. Monetary tightening is highly anticipated in the US, which is likely to raise short-term interest rates. At the same time, the ECB and Bank of Japan ...

December 24, 2014, 2:44 am, 1394205

Christmas may be not so merry as we hope. Economists have argued that gift giving is an inefficient way to allocate resources, and it is widely suggested that Christmas brings a peak in prices and the number of suicides, or even disrupts the business cycle. This column discusses some conventional ...

December 23, 2014, 8:44 am, 1393688

Macroecomics has changed in a number of ways since the global crisis. For example, there is now more emphasis on modeling the financial sector, self-fulfilling panics, herd behaviour and the new role of demand. This Vox Talk discusses these changes as well as those areas in macroeconomics that are currently ...

December 22, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1393501

Expectations are critical for macroeconomics and financial markets. But the expectation-formation process is not well understood. This column discusses some empirical characteristics of forecast disagreement from professional forecasters in the US, and discusses the ‘information frictions’ that underlie the heterogeneity of expectations.

December 22, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1393500

Eurozone deflation is likely to become reality when the annual inflation figure for 2014 is announced in January. This column argues that the ECB should develop a strategy that works in the Eurozone’s unique financial setting, instead of following the Fed’s lead. The author proposes that the ECB should pursue ...

December 22, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1393420

Weak investment is a key macroeconomic problem in the Eurozone, and the new European Commission has proposed an ‘Investment Plan’ to complement existing policy initiatives. In this column, the Commission’s Chief Economist explains the key rationale behind the Investment Plan. 

December 22, 2014, 4:44 am, 1392964

Banking has recently proven much more fragile than expected. This column argues that the Basel III regulatory response overlooks the interactions between different kinds of prudential policies, and the link between prudential policy and competition policy. Capital and liquidity requirements are partially substitutable, so an increase in one requirement should ...