Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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"Research-based policy analysis and commentary from Europe’s leading economists”

November 27, 2015, 12:44 am, 1582620
Economists often disagree on China’s prospects. This column provides the results from a survey from the Centre for Macroeconomics. It turns out that three quarters of the experts believe that China’s annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is ...

November 27, 2015, 12:44 am, 1582619
Douglass North, economic historian and co-recipient of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, passed away this week. This column pays tribute to one of the great social scientific pioneers of the modern era – focusing on one particular example of how North drew on historical, empirical and theoretical ...

November 27, 2015, 12:44 am, 1582618
Douglass C. North was among the most important and influential economic historians and economists of the late 20th century. This column highlights four of his major contributions: his pioneering work in quantitative economic history, or ‘cliometrics’; his similarly fundamental work using neoclassical economics to understand institutions; his critique of theory ...

November 26, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1582548
Europe is experiencing an unprecedented inflow of immigrants. Casual observation suggests that far-right parties could benefit from voters’ worries about this inflow. This update to a column from September 2012 provides empirical evidence showing that the geographic proximity of immigrants is one important causal driver behind support for the far ...

November 26, 2015, 2:44 am, 1582317
Some scholars view capital inflows as contractionary, but many policymakers view them as expansionary. Evidence supports the policymakers. This column introduces an analytic framework that knits together the two views. For a given policy rate, bond inflows lead to currency appreciation and are contractionary, while non-bond inflows lead to an ...

November 26, 2015, 2:44 am, 1582315
Seven years after its crisis, Iceland has staged an economic recovery. This column suggests that despite its overall success, the current economic situation in Iceland is not devoid of problems. Insufficient competition in certain areas keeps real wages lower in Iceland compared to other Nordic countries. The current government in ...

November 26, 2015, 2:44 am, 1582316
Not much is known about the drivers of gender diversity in monetary policy committees. This column presents new research suggesting that gender preferences may be endogenous with respect to the overall structural and institutional settings. Higher female representation is associated with higher levels of central bank independence and lower involvement ...

November 26, 2015, 2:44 am, 1582314
Interest rates have been extremely low since the Global Crisis. This column surveys the recent debate over whether they will remain low, or return to normal. While an unequivocal answer is not possible, the evidence suggests a significant decline in average real rates – perhaps to as low as 1%.

November 25, 2015, 12:44 am, 1581702
The British government has placed productivity at the centre of its economic growth agenda. Yet, despite the economy recovering to pre-Crisis levels, productivity has slowed. This column argues that we mustn’t lose sight of investing in productivity as a sure-fire and long-term guard against slow growth, outlining a range of ...

November 25, 2015, 12:44 am, 1581701
Central banks around the world have been shouldering ever-increasing policy burdens beyond their core mandate of stabilising prices. This column considers the social welfare implications when central banks take on additional mandates that are usually the domain of other policymakers. Additional mandates are shown to worsen trade-offs faced by the ...