January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The Economists’ Voice
Comcast counts Netflix traffic, but not its own streaming on-demand service, against users' data limits. Critics contend that this behavior violates at least the spirit of network neutrality. This controversy highlights the complexity of defining and regulating neutrality as services continue to migrate to IP platforms. The right question is ...
Critics of affirmative action policies contend that the elimination of racial preferences in college admissions would lead to a “more-able” student body. In a system in which other non-meritocratic elements other than race play an important role there is no reason to think that the slot filled by the ...
Global cap and trade equalizes the price of emissions and leads to efficient abatement across countries, but sets the abatement level inefficiently low. It is set too low, because the global cap is the sum of individual country targets set on the basis of self-interest. The efficiency of a single ...
High-frequency trading, as distinct from other forms of algorithmic trading, is of little or no social value. Implementation of resting rules would retain the benefits of algorithmic trading while eliminating the potential harm of high-frequency trading.
Alcohol prohibition is now distant memory, although it’s direct descendant—the War on Drugs, first declared by Richard Nixon in the early 1970s—appears to have inherited many of the ugly features of its predecessor. Economists, policymakers, and others (filmmakers, journalists, etc.) have taken note of the obvious parallels and called for ...
Ed Leamer's recent column in this journal is illustrative of a puzzling trend in macroeconomics — the seeming denial of the long-held Keynesian and monetarist view that nominal shocks have real effects.
Rooted in 20th century legislation, telecommunications policy has historically been conducted in separate wired and wireless silos. The explosion of wireless voice, data and video communications, however, has largely overtaken wired communications, yet these silos persist. This article evaluates the economic foundation for unifying telecommunications policy.
We argue that coordinated mass dissemination of information about asset fundamentals should make asset markets less prone to bubbles. The key idea is to establish a centralized and popular information source to make key information common knowledge across as many market participants as possible. This realistic, micro-level anti-bubble policy faces ...
With marijuana legalization currently on three state ballots this year, it is vital to consider optimal marijuana regulatory and tax structures. This paper lays out a framework for a regulated marijuana market, drawing on the lessons from the taxation and regulation of similar products.
We compare findings from the recently concluded evaluation of IMF surveillance with our own findings from our evaluation of OECD surveillance. We find that both institutions approach surveillance in very different ways.