Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Economists’ Voice

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777507

Comcast counts Netflix traffic, but not its own streaming on-demand service, against users' data limits. Critics contend that this behavior violates at least the spirit of network neutrality. This controversy highlights the complexity of defining and regulating neutrality as services continue to migrate to IP platforms. The right question is ...

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777508

Critics of affirmative action policies contend that the elimination of racial preferences in college admissions would lead to a “more-able” student body. In a system in which other non-meritocratic elements other than race play an important role there is no reason to think that the slot filled by the ...

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777509

Global cap and trade equalizes the price of emissions and leads to efficient abatement across countries, but sets the abatement level inefficiently low. It is set too low, because the global cap is the sum of individual country targets set on the basis of self-interest. The efficiency of a single ...

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777510

High-frequency trading, as distinct from other forms of algorithmic trading, is of little or no social value. Implementation of resting rules would retain the benefits of algorithmic trading while eliminating the potential harm of high-frequency trading.

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777506

Alcohol prohibition is now distant memory, although it’s direct descendant—the War on Drugs, first declared by Richard Nixon in the early 1970s—appears to have inherited many of the ugly features of its predecessor. Economists, policymakers, and others (filmmakers, journalists, etc.) have taken note of the obvious parallels and called for ...

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777505

Ed Leamer's recent column in this journal is illustrative of a puzzling trend in macroeconomics — the seeming denial of the long-held Keynesian and monetarist view that nominal shocks have real effects.

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777502

Rooted in 20th century legislation, telecommunications policy has historically been conducted in separate wired and wireless silos. The explosion of wireless voice, data and video communications, however, has largely overtaken wired communications, yet these silos persist. This article evaluates the economic foundation for unifying telecommunications policy.

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777503

We argue that coordinated mass dissemination of information about asset fundamentals should make asset markets less prone to bubbles. The key idea is to establish a centralized and popular information source to make key information common knowledge across as many market participants as possible. This realistic, micro-level anti-bubble policy faces ...

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777504

With marijuana legalization currently on three state ballots this year, it is vital to consider optimal marijuana regulatory and tax structures. This paper lays out a framework for a regulated marijuana market, drawing on the lessons from the taxation and regulation of similar products.

September 20, 2017, 9:28 am, 1777501

We compare findings from the recently concluded evaluation of IMF surveillance with our own findings from our evaluation of OECD surveillance. We find that both institutions approach surveillance in very different ways.