Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Dani Rodrik’s weblog

"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”

July 30, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1658974

Whenever I talk with another Turk about the Gulen movement, a question invariably props up: is the CIA behind Gulen? In fact for most Turks this is a rather rhetorical question, with an incontrovertible answer. The belief that Gulen and his activities are orchestrated by the U.S. is ...

July 23, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1656488

If what Erdogan said on TV today is correct, there is no longer much doubt about the answer to this question. According to Erdogan, the officers who detained the chief of general staff, Hulusi Akar, on July 15 offered to put Akar in contact with Gulen. As ...

June 13, 2016, 10:34 am, 1644875

I have not written much on Brexit because I do not have a strong or particularly well-informed view of it. My personal hope is that Britain will choose to remain in the EU – but that is as much because of a belief that without Britain the EU ...

May 26, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1640154

by the IMF, in their magazine Finance & Development. Here is the link. The piece is written by the IMF's Prakash Loungani, who has gone back and fished out vignettes that even I had forgotten. Here is the opening:

The triumph of markets over ...

March 11, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1617065

Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times has a very thoughtful discussion of my globalization trilemma, as it applies to Brexit among other things. Sandbu argues that “thinking critically about Rodrik’s trilemma should lead us to more optimistic conclusions.”

I largely agree with Sandbu’s points, but I ...

December 2, 2015, 10:34 am, 1584954

Martin Wolf's take on the book is characteristically to the point, and the best short summary I have seen as yet:

After the financial crisis, economics is in the doghouse. Rodrik, one of the world’s most perceptive policy analysts, wants it let out again, albeit on a ...

November 18, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1578416

My Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science has been out now for more than a month, and I am quite pleased by the early reactions. Here is the review in The New York Times Book Review (by David Leonhardt) this weekend, ...

October 18, 2015, 10:34 am, 1559910

I have written here frequently about the sham trials that Turkey’s strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan used – along with his then allies, the Gülen movement – to topple the secularist establishment and solidify his hold on power. Among those targeted was my father-in-law, who was accused, along with ...

September 18, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1546118

I am doing one of the “Conversations with Tyler” events on September 24th, and in preparation for that, Tyler Cowen asked his blog readers to submit possible questions. As of this writing, there was a terrific list of challenging questions on the list. I want ...

July 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1501925

Mention “deindustrialization,” and the image that comes to mind is that of advanced economies making their way into the post-industrial phase of development. In a new paper,[1] I show that the more dramatic trend is one of deindustrialization in the developing countries. This is a ...