Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Dani Rodrik’s weblog

"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”

March 28, 2014, 10:34 am, 1247476

Guest post by Derek Headey

A few years ago Dani very kindly let me guestblog on some of my work on the global food crisis (see here and also Dani’s much earlier comments here). In that earlier work I used Gallup World ...

February 21, 2014, 4:34 am, 1228872

Here is the one paragraph version of what is happening in Turkey.

During the last decade in which he has been in power, Erdogan has allowed the Gulen movement to take control over the police, judiciary, and large parts of the state apparatus. The Gulen movement in turn ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223079

The World Economics Association recently interviewed me on the state of economics, inquiring about my views on pluralism in the profession. You can find the result on the WEA's newsletter here (the interview starts on page 9). I reproduce it below.

1. How would you ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223081
My newest Project Syndicate column is on the BRICS.  These countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – have little in common. Most prognostications suggested they would agree on very little. Yet they have surprised the world by proposing a New Development Bank to focus on infrastructure finance.

This is ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223078

What follows below is the original, unedited version of my oped in the Financial Times today, for those who cannot access it.

(UPDATE: I should add that neither the title of the FT piece nor the subtitle is mine. The subtitle in the print edition ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223080

This is so absolutely brilliant and important:

“One thing that experts know, and that non-experts do not, is that they know less than non-experts think they do.”

It comes from Kaushik Basu, currently chief economist at the World Bank and one of the world’s most thoughtful expert-economists.

Economists ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223076

Tyler Cowen refers to some of my work in his NYT piece on dimming prospects for high growth in emerging market economies. Coincidentally, the brand new Global Citizen Foundation has just published my more substantial paper on this topic, titled “The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth.”

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223074

Traditional economies grow and develop first by industrializing, and then by moving into services.  This has been the classic path to economic and political modernity.

A few non-Western countries have been able to replicate this path: Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are examples that come immediately to mind.

I have been ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223075

So big changes ahead for me. This is my last week at Harvard, as I am moving to the Institute for Advanced Study as the Albert O. Hirschman professor in the School of Social Science.  Here is the Institute’s official announcement.  My new home page is here, ...

February 11, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1223077

There has been much discussion in Turkey in recent days about the performance of the economy under the AKP government, occasioned in part by an exchange I had with Minister of Finance Mehmet Şimşek.

The Turkish government likes to claim that the GDP expanded by more than three-fold between 2002 and ...