September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Dani Rodrik’s weblog
"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”
Traditional economies grow and develop first by industrializing, and then by moving into services. This has been the classic path to economic and political modernity.
A few non-Western countries have been able to replicate this path: Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are examples that come immediately to mind.
I have been ...
This is ...
This column on “The Tyranny of Political Economy” quickly rose to become the most-read piece on Project Syndicate – quite to my surprise, as it deals essentially with an academic subject. I take the recent rational-choice political economy to task for ignoring the role of ideas in shaping how ...
This is so absolutely brilliant and important:
“One thing that experts know, and that non-experts do not, is that they know less than non-experts think they do.”
It comes from Kaushik Basu, currently chief economist at the World Bank and one of the world’s most thoughtful expert-economists.
What follows below is the original, unedited version of my oped in the Financial Times today, for those who cannot access it.
(UPDATE: I should add that neither the title of the FT piece nor the subtitle is mine. The subtitle in the print edition ...
So big changes ahead for me. This is my last week at Harvard, as I am moving to the Institute for Advanced Study as the Albert O. Hirschman professor in the School of Social Science. Here is the Institute’s official announcement. My new home page is here, ...
Tyler Cowen refers to some of my work in his NYT piece on dimming prospects for high growth in emerging market economies. Coincidentally, the brand new Global Citizen Foundation has just published my more substantial paper on this topic, titled “The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth.”
There has been much discussion in Turkey in recent days about the performance of the economy under the AKP government, occasioned in part by an exchange I had with Minister of Finance Mehmet Şimşek.
The Turkish government likes to claim that the GDP expanded by more than three-fold between 2002 and ...
The World Economics Association recently interviewed me on the state of economics, inquiring about my views on pluralism in the profession. You can find the result on the WEA's newsletter here (the interview starts on page 9). I reproduce it below.
1. How would you ...