Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

Dani Rodrik’s weblog

"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771841

I was recently asked to write a foreword to the Mexican edition of Kari Polanyi Levitt’s From the Great Transformation to the Great Financialization. Kari is Karl Polanyi's daughter, and the essays in her book -- part memoir, part intellectual history, part analysis of the global economy ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771842

In the previous entry, I discussed the real-world distributional effects of trade agreements, in the specific case of NAFTA. Why should we care about such redistribution and how should we deal with it?

It is useful to distinguish between two different versions of an argument as to ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771843

Brad De Long has written a lengthy essay that defends NAFTA (and other trade deals) from the charge that they are responsible for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. I agree with much that he says – in particular with the points that the decline ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771844

The last two decades have been a rare period of rapid convergence for the world's developing economies. Everyone is familiar with China and India's experience, but growth went beyond these two large economies. Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America had their best performance in decades, if ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771840

The great Ariel Rubinstein has a review of my book Economics Rules in the latest issue of the Journal of Economic Literature. It is a fun review – gratifying for me because Ariel agrees with many of my arguments – and it has a deeply ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771839

I don’t write a lot on Turkey these days. (My latest piece was published last September. It was on Erdogan’s missed opportunities to enter history books as a truly great leader, rather than the corrupt tyrant he seems destined for.) It’s partly because the subject is too ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771836

Claire Berlinski’s excellent account of the Western (and domestic) observers who cheered on as Turkey was sliding into authoritarianism reminds me of a point I long wanted to make.

There was in Erdogan’s early years some reason to be confused as to what was going on. Was ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771837

A usual argument against the use of capital controls as a prudential measure is that it is always better to tackle problems at their source rather than trying to deal with symptoms.  This is called the principle of economic targeting in Economics, one of the discipline’s most powerful ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771838

I just saw this response from Joel Trachtman to my column "Too Late To Compensate Free Trade's Losers." Trachtman argues that "the fundamental problem of winners and losers will not be solved by these changes."

I do not disagree. But the fundamental political problem with trade ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771835

That is what John Judis wanted to talk to me about, and we did. This over at TPM is what came out.

By the way, Judis' book on populism is great. It makes an important distinction between right-wing and left-wing populism, a distinction that I have ...