May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Dani Rodrik’s weblog
"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”
Here is the one paragraph version of what is happening in Turkey.
During the last decade in which he has been in power, Erdogan has allowed the Gulen movement to take control over the police, judiciary, and large parts of the state apparatus. The Gulen movement in turn ...
So big changes ahead for me. This is my last week at Harvard, as I am moving to the Institute for Advanced Study as the Albert O. Hirschman professor in the School of Social Science. Here is the Institute’s official announcement. My new home page is here, ...
Tyler Cowen refers to some of my work in his NYT piece on dimming prospects for high growth in emerging market economies. Coincidentally, the brand new Global Citizen Foundation has just published my more substantial paper on this topic, titled “The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth.”
Traditional economies grow and develop first by industrializing, and then by moving into services. This has been the classic path to economic and political modernity.
A few non-Western countries have been able to replicate this path: Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are examples that come immediately to mind.
I have been ...
I have an article in the IAS’s quarterly publication, the Institute Letter, on the state of Economics. Despite the evident role of the economics profession in the recent crisis and my critical views on conventional wisdom in globalization and development, my take on the discipline is rather ...
At long last, Turkey's consitutional court has reversed the conviction of the more than 200 officers previously found guilty in the bogus Sledgehammer coup plot, leading to the release on June 19th of all those in jail (including my father in law).
Even though a retrial ...
David Held is one of the most thoughtful researchers and commentators on global issues, so I am thrilled and honored to be joining forces with him as joint general editor of Global Policy. The journal publishes a range of exciting academic and policy oriented pieces. Check ...
Daron Acemoglu wrote what seemed like a surprising upbeat piece on Turkish democracy a few days ago. His argument seems to be that democracy required power to be wrested away from the secularists who had erected authoritarian structures, and Erdogan had achieved that. Even though, Erdogan’s recent ...
How quickly and how well are developing countries transforming their economies and with what effects on inter-sectorial growth and distribution? A group of us studied structural transformation looking at evidence from 109 countries over 30 years covering a ...
Arvind Subramanian has a nice post, which provides additional evidence on the phenomenon of premature industrialization that I have talked about and documented previously. Arvind works with data on industry rather than manufacturing per se, which I prefer. But the result is similar. The inverse ...