Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Dani Rodrik’s weblog

"Unconventional thoughts on economic development and globalization”

September 28, 2016, 10:34 am, 1679199

I saw Shimon Peres, who passed away yesterday, only once and it was at a conference on inflation stabilization in Jerusalem in 1990. He had led the national unity government during 1984-86 which had successfully brought down the country's triple-digit inflation. The conference organizer, the great Michael Bruno, ...

September 19, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1676743

I had a piece in the New York Times over the weekend that tries to steer our globalization discussion in what I think is a more sensible direction. A brief excerpt:

We need to rescue globalization not just from populists, but also from its cheerleaders. Globalization ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675878

I have written here frequently about the sham trials that Turkey’s strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan used – along with his then allies, the Gülen movement – to topple the secularist establishment and solidify his hold on power. Among those targeted was my father-in-law, who was accused, along with ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675880

There is an interesting debate going on in Europe about the likely consequences of the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership). Much of the real debate is (or should be) about the proposed Investor-State dispute resolution (ISDS) and the desirability of regulatory harmonization when nations have different preferences ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675877

My Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science has been out now for more than a month, and I am quite pleased by the early reactions. Here is the review in The New York Times Book Review (by David Leonhardt) this weekend, ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675879

I am doing one of the “Conversations with Tyler” events on September 24th, and in preparation for that, Tyler Cowen asked his blog readers to submit possible questions. As of this writing, there was a terrific list of challenging questions on the list. I want ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675875

Martin Sandbu of the Financial Times has a very thoughtful discussion of my globalization trilemma, as it applies to Brexit among other things. Sandbu argues that “thinking critically about Rodrik’s trilemma should lead us to more optimistic conclusions.”

I largely agree with Sandbu’s points, but I ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675873

I have not written much on Brexit because I do not have a strong or particularly well-informed view of it. My personal hope is that Britain will choose to remain in the EU – but that is as much because of a belief that without Britain the EU ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675874

by the IMF, in their magazine Finance & Development. Here is the link. The piece is written by the IMF's Prakash Loungani, who has gone back and fished out vignettes that even I had forgotten. Here is the opening:

The triumph of markets over ...

September 19, 2016, 12:34 am, 1675876

Martin Wolf's take on the book is characteristically to the point, and the best short summary I have seen as yet:

After the financial crisis, economics is in the doghouse. Rodrik, one of the world’s most perceptive policy analysts, wants it let out again, albeit on a ...