Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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July 24, 2014, 8:44 am, 1304600

WHEN Alibaba launched Yu’E Bao, an online investment fund, there was a flood of optimism that the e-commerce company would shake up the sclerotic Chinese banking sector. For a while it did just that. But its performance ...

July 23, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1303838

TYLER COWEN has written a column on inequality, in which he notes that while inequality is rising within many economies it is falling globally. That is true, though it is worth pointing out that among the economies within which inequality is rising are large emerging markets like China and ...

July 23, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1303836

LOOKING backward, it is clear that American productivity growth has been pretty disappointing over the past 40 years, with the exception of an IT boomlet lasting from about 1996 to 2004. But past performance need not imply continued disappointment in future. The impressive gathering of innovative momentum in recent ...

July 23, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1303837

REPUBLICANS renewed their assault on the Federal Reserve recently, as they debated legislation to curtail the Fed's freedom to set monetary policy as it sees fit. The legislation would require the Federal Reserve to set interest rates according to a Taylor rule: a formula which adjusts interest rates according to ...

July 17, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1302465

IS THE informal sector a poison pill to economic development or is it a by-product of stagnation and poverty? Academics who believe in the former typically argue either that entrepreneurs in the informal sector are a vast untapped resource that must be unleashed to spur growth, or that informality—through ...

July 17, 2014, 8:44 am, 1302309

ONE of the trickiest targets for Shinzo Abe’s third arrow of structural reform was always going to be opening Japan’s agriculture sector up to international competition. Japanese farmers have a powerful political presence, and have long been heavily protected from trade with tariffs upwards of 100%.  Indeed, in the lead ...

July 16, 2014, 6:44 am, 1301643

IT'S a rare economics tome that makes the New York Times bestsellers list, but Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” has done it, keeping inequality at the forefront of the political discourse. Yet the book raises key questions, such as just which measures of inequality we should be concerned ...

July 16, 2014, 2:44 am, 1301575

Fears of a property crash, corporate defaults and austerity in the age of anti-corruption all came to naught. China’s growth sped up in the second quarter, climbing to 7.5% year-on-year, smack in line with the government’s official target.

Easier credit conditions provided ...

July 15, 2014, 6:44 am, 1301031

LAST week the Financial Times reported on anger within the French political establishment over America's abuse of its "exorbitant privilege" as issuer of the world's global reserve currency. Because of the dollar's overwhelming ubiquity in the global economy it is preferred for all sorts of transactions—including the ones in violation ...

July 14, 2014, 10:44 am, 1300615

IN PARTS of the world where designer eyewear products are popular, it is sometimes easy to forget the problems that people with poor vision and limited means face in many developing countries. A study of some 20,000 children in rural China, for instance, found that 24% of primary school ...