Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Free Exchange


October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356140

TECHNOLOGY companies from Google to Audi have made remarkable strides in autonomous vehicle technology over the last few years. This progress is the more impressive given the fact that a decade ago technologists considered driving to be a near un-automatable task. Despite the extraordinary pace of improvement, however, ...


October 21, 2014, 8:44 am, 1354679

AMID the sell-off in global equities over the past month, one market has made for an unlikely safe haven. While American, European and Japanese stock indices have fallen by roughly 5-9% since late September, Chinese stocks have been flat. For a market that often


October 21, 2014, 6:44 am, 1354603

AS UNPLEASANT as global economic conditions look just now we can at least be thankful that things aren't anywhere near as bad as they were in 2009, to say nothing of 1931. Neither are those sorts of nasty scenarios a risk. Right?

There are lots of reasons to think the world ...


October 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1354279

LAST week, the Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Jean Tirole (see this week's Free exchange column) for his work examining the difficulties in regulating firms with substantial market power. Mr Tirole's research is as relevant as ever, thanks to growing concern over the weight tech titans are ...


October 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1354194
THIS week our correspondents discuss deflation, the TV business and the politics of wages


October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354114

FRIDAY October 17th was China’s first official “Poverty Alleviation Day”, an annual convocation of “forums and fundraisers”, designed to rally efforts to combat deprivation. Of course, thanks to China’s rapid economic progress, the country already alleviates a lot of poverty each day: last year the number of rural poor fell ...


October 17, 2014, 10:44 am, 1352931

Simon Cox is Investment Strategist for Asia-Pacific at BNY Mellon Investment Management in Hong Kong.

THE chart below shows growth and inflation in an unidentified economy. Even without naming the place, it is clear that all is not going well. The country is no stranger to deflation, having suffered several months ...


October 16, 2014, 4:44 am, 1352017

IN THIS week’s print edition we published a chart that looks at the world’s biggest economies over time. We timed it to coincide with the news that China, at least in purchasing-power parity terms, is now the world's biggest economy. People tend to find this historical stuff rather interesting, ...


October 14, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1350893

IN THE last year we have written a series of articles on working hours, many of which were rather popular. We have tried to explain why the rich now work longer than the poor, and why working shorter hours is


October 14, 2014, 6:44 am, 1350633

THE monetary economics of a world in which interest rates are close to zero are not especially mysterious. Stimulating the economy at that point requires central banks to raise expected inflation. Disinflation, by contrast, results in passive tightening, since the central bank can't lower its policy rate and since the ...