Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Free Exchange

October 28, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1359081

UNICEF, a branch of the United Nations, has just released an interesting report on child poverty during the Great Recession. The report’s results have been reported widely and are distressing. It shows that since 2008 2.6 million children in rich countries have sunk below the poverty line. In 23 ...

October 27, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1358506

THIS week: The European Central Bank's health-check of big European banks and the state of American business

October 27, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1358365

I’VE STUMBLED across an interesting paper, which looks at the economic impact of TOMS Shoes. When you buy a pair of TOMS, they give another pair to an impoverished child. TOMS has come under a fair amount of criticism for what it ...

October 23, 2014, 6:44 am, 1356140

TECHNOLOGY companies from Google to Audi have made remarkable strides in autonomous vehicle technology over the last few years. This progress is the more impressive given the fact that a decade ago technologists considered driving to be a near un-automatable task. Despite the extraordinary pace of improvement, however, ...

October 21, 2014, 8:44 am, 1354679

AMID the sell-off in global equities over the past month, one market has made for an unlikely safe haven. While American, European and Japanese stock indices have fallen by roughly 5-9% since late September, Chinese stocks have been flat. For a market that often

October 21, 2014, 6:44 am, 1354603

AS UNPLEASANT as global economic conditions look just now we can at least be thankful that things aren't anywhere near as bad as they were in 2009, to say nothing of 1931. Neither are those sorts of nasty scenarios a risk. Right?

There are lots of reasons to think the world ...

October 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1354279

LAST week, the Nobel prize in economics was awarded to Jean Tirole (see this week's Free exchange column) for his work examining the difficulties in regulating firms with substantial market power. Mr Tirole's research is as relevant as ever, thanks to growing concern over the weight tech titans are ...

October 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1354194
THIS week our correspondents discuss deflation, the TV business and the politics of wages

October 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1354114

FRIDAY October 17th was China‚Äôs first official ‚ÄúPoverty Alleviation Day‚ÄĚ, an annual convocation of ‚Äúforums and fundraisers‚ÄĚ, designed to rally efforts to combat deprivation. Of course, thanks to China‚Äôs rapid economic progress, the country already alleviates a lot of poverty each day: last year the number of rural poor fell ...

October 17, 2014, 10:44 am, 1352931

Simon Cox is Investment Strategist for Asia-Pacific at BNY Mellon Investment Management in Hong Kong.

THE chart below shows growth and inflation in an unidentified economy. Even without naming the place, it is clear that all is not going well. The country is no stranger to deflation, having suffered several months ...