Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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November 25, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1377813

ACCORDING to new data released today, America's economy grew at a 3.9% annual pace in the third quarter of this year. That was an upward revision from the advance estimate, of 3.5%. It came on the heels of a second quarter in which real output expanded at a 4.6% ...


November 24, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1377209
DOVEISH action and words from central banks in China and Europe, Russia's economy and more trouble for Google in Europe


November 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1375808

CHINA has cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, a powerful signal that the government want to step up support for the slowing economy. As fate should have it, a rate cut was the very thing we had called for in


November 20, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1375215

IN THE mid-2000s the Federal Reserve found itself facing something of a problem. Beginning in 2004 the Fed has started raising the federal funds rate in response to strengthening economic conditions. Yet rising short-term rates did not lead to the expected increases in long-term rates. That was a problem, because ...


November 20, 2014, 10:44 am, 1374974

SINCE OUR print-edition piece last week, Ukraine’s economy seems to have stabilised a little. The currency fell by about 2% this week against the dollar, much better than what happened the week before (when there was a 14% drop). Ukraine's central bank issued an optimistic press release, suggesting ...


November 18, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1373762

IT HAS been a tumultuous couple of weeks for Japanese policy makers. First, the Bank of Japan dramatically scaled up its quantitative easing programme in response to weak growth and inflation figures. Then, new data revealed that the Japanese economy shrank at a 1.6% annual pace in the third quarter, ...


November 17, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1372877

THIS week: A look back at the G20 summit in Brisbane, Japan enters a recession and retailer Amazon and publisher Hachette agree on a deal over the price of e-book


November 17, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1372799

Yusuke Horiguchi is the former director of the International Monetary Fund's Asia and Pacific Department, and former chief economist of the Institute of International Finance

THE time for a decision on whether to delay the scheduled second consumption tax hike is fast approaching. Prime minister Shinzo Abe is reported to be ...


November 12, 2014, 10:44 am, 1369775

“IF THE objective of graduate training in top-ranked [economics] departments is to produce successful research economists, then these graduate programmes are largely failing.” That’s the startling message from a recent paper published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives.

How did the authors of this paper reach such a pessimistic conclusion? ...


November 10, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1368629

THE Russian rouble runs into trouble, Ukraine's economy takes a dive, big banks become lesser risks and China and Japan shake hands at APEC