Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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January 28, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1411540

LOW OIL prices are not good for the Nigerian economy. In its latest forecasts, the IMF's predictions for the Nigerian economy in 2015 have been cut—from over 7% growth to about 5%. The naira, Nigeria's currency, is doing badly. But what are ...


January 27, 2015, 6:44 pm, 1411005

Quantitative easing? Bah humbug!

TIRED of lightweights bickering over the financial crisis and its aftermath? Of economic upheaval becoming merely fodder for intellectually dishonest political campaigns? Wonder what biggest thinkers might have to say? 

Our efforts to consult the giants of economist has ...


January 26, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1410325

THIS week: The implications of the Greek election and Davos deconstructed

 


January 23, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1408813

BRITAIN'S pensioners are a spoiled lot. They benefit from perks such as free bus travel and free television licences, and do not have to pay national insurance, one of Britain's two income taxes, on their private earnings. Last week George Osborne, chancellor of the exchequer, introduced new savings bonds exclusively ...


January 23, 2015, 6:44 am, 1408615

SINCE publishing our package on energy subsidies last week, a few people have asked us about one particular factoid. In the leader we say:

By one count, such handouts [energy subsidies] led to extra consumption that was responsible for 36% of global carbon emissions in 1980-2010.

We repeat the figure elsewhere ...


January 22, 2015, 2:44 pm, 1408190

AFTER seemingly endless hints, rows and delays, the European Central Bank is finally launching a big programme of quantitative easing (QE), creating money to buy financial assets, in order to fight the euro zone’s slide towards deflation. From March this year until September 2016 the ECB will buy €60 billion ...


January 21, 2015, 4:44 pm, 1407507

Ugo Panizza, of the Graduate Institute, Geneva, offers his thoughts on Thursday's press conference, when people expect the European Central Bank to announce quantitative easing.

IF THINGS go as expected, on January 22nd the governing council of the European Central Bank (ECB) will ...


January 21, 2015, 10:24 am, 1407340

Paul De Grauwe, John Paulson Chair in Political Economy at the London School of Economics, gives his thoughts on the ECB meeting this Thursday, where Mario Draghi is expected to announce a programme of quantitative easing. 

IT APPEARS that the European Central Bank ...


January 21, 2015, 10:24 am, 1407339

Switzerland’s cap on its currency, which it removed on January 15th, was unsustainable, protectionist and exposed the central bank to catastrophic losses, according to many commentators. Not so, argues Simon Cox of BNY Mellon Investment Management.

ON ...


January 20, 2015, 10:44 am, 1407207

Yanis Varoufakis is a professor of economic theory at the University of Athens and Syriza parliamentary candidate in the general election on 25th January. In November he outlined a plan to revive the euro-zone economy. Here he discusses quantitative easing in the euro zone.