Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Free Exchange


August 27, 2014, 8:44 am, 1325253

A FORTHCOMING paper in the Journal of Development Economics looks at the dollar’s ascendancy to global reserve currency. Barry Eichengreen, of the University of California, Berkeley, and two economists from the ECB up-end the conventional history of when the dollar became top dog.

Economic historians have typically believed that until ...


August 23, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1323528

IN THIS week’s Free exchange column, we look at why globalisation may not reduce inequality in developing countries. Lots of theories have been proposed. We discuss one, outlined by Eric Maskin of Harvard University. Mr Maskin has been working for over a decade on this theory, which he ...


August 23, 2014, 12:44 am, 1323387

The contradictory signals generated by American labour market data in the last year have provided grist for both hawks and doves at the Federal Reserve. For hawks, the rapid decline in the unemployment rate shows slack in the economy is disappearing so the Fed should tighten soon. For doves, the ...


August 22, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1323150

THE ECONOMIST recently published an article about the costs and benefits of various kinds of zero- and low-carbon energy, “Sun, wind and drain”. The article was based on research by Charles Frank of the Brookings Institution (whose paper is here). Dr Frank, citing the


August 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1321824

WE ARE covering the 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences, held in a small, pretty Bavarian town. It is a unique event, with about half the living Nobel laureates in attendance. Each gives a talk about their research and then leads a small class to a select group of young ...


August 20, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1321744

ONCE thought of as a staid trade, economists are increasingly repackaging themselves for public consumption. The rise of data journalism has helped catapult practitioners of the dismal science into the public domain. However, the gap between economists’ thinking and public opinion is oftenlarge. So are economists actually able to ...


August 16, 2014, 6:44 am, 1319641

ADVANCED countries have struggled to make up the ground that they lost in the “great recession” that followed the financial crisis of 2007-08. America and Germany were relatively quick to regain lost ground but Britain has only just surpassed its pre-crisis GDP peak. And despite the support from generally strong ...


August 15, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1319552

THIS week’s Free exchange columnlooks at the latest research on foreign aid and economic growth. While we report that there is mounting evidence suggesting that aid has a positive effect on growth, we argue that cost-benefit analyses of development cash are much needed. If the positive impact on ...


August 13, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1317978

RECOGNISING that fragile economies need strong leaders, Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, aims for an air of unruffled competence. Recently, however, his mixed messages on the economy have bamboozled firms and financial markets. In February the bank suggested ...


August 13, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1317902

SINCE 2010 the American unemployment rate has fallen from about 10% to about 6%. Ask an economist whether a lower unemployment rate is good and they will look at you sideways. Ask an epidemiologist and you might get a different answer.

Sleep ...