Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 30, 2014, 4:44 am, 1343467

THE argument that American officials lacked the capability or authority to save Lehman Brothers—and, potentially, to spare the world the most wrenching financial crisis since the 1930s—never really withstood close scrutiny. In 2012, I wrote:

There was no reason that Lehman had to fail. It had tons of assets on ...


September 29, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1343164

THIS week: Bill Gross leaves PIMCO, trade deals in trouble and the rising US dollar


September 29, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1343000

THE members of the Federal Open Market Committee are not overly fond of being stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Since December of 2008, the Fed's preferred policy lever, the federal funds rate, has rested between 0% and 0.25%: effectively the lowest possible level, since the zero return on ...


September 28, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1342581

IN 1993 Vaughn Starnes, a Californian surgeon, performed an operation on a 13-year-old patient with cystic fibrosis, a disease that affects breathing. He removed one lung lobe from each of the parents then transplanted them into the child’s lungs. All three survived their operations and the child’s condition improved dramatically. ...


September 26, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1342101

While doing some research for an upcoming article, I checked on the evolution of current account imbalances since the recession and was struck by how China and Europe have traded places. China's surplus has fallen from ...


September 26, 2014, 4:44 am, 1341629

EARLIER this week David Brooks, a conservative social commentator with a column at the New York Times, wrote a meandering and unconvincing column on the state of the world. He argued in the piece that the world's current troubles look comparatively minor relative to those that faced other generations, and ...


September 25, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1341235

TODAY Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, visited Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. Lithuania formally adopts the euro in 2015, becoming the 19th country to do so. (We will be reporting more on Lithuania’s economy in the coming weeks.)

Early ...


September 25, 2014, 6:44 am, 1341008

IN THE world of rumours, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank chief, has lost his job multiple times. First there was a 2007 reshuffle when he was pushed aside early in his tenure, ...


September 22, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1339468

THIS week: The latest grim economic news from the eurozone, the future of Oracle after Larry Elison (sort of) leaves and an accounting irregularity at Tesco


September 22, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1339192

ON FRIDAY we published a short pieceon the evidence for and against poverty traps. We discussed a paper that was recently published in theJournal of Economic Perspectives. One of the authors, Aart Kraay, submitted a response to the article, which we publish below. MrKraayis an economistin the Development ...