Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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December 22, 2014, 10:44 am, 1393126

OUR correspondents on the biggest business and finance stories of 2014, and what will make headlines next year


December 20, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1392652

OVER the past few weeks, debates over British fiscal policy have been conducted under the shadow of George Orwell's "The Road to Wigan Pier",a powerful description of the povertyfound in the north of England in the 1930s.On December 3rd, George Osborne, the ...


December 18, 2014, 8:44 am, 1391388

IT MUST seem churlish of me to maintain my grim pessimism about the Fed's current course of action, given the steady flow of encouraging data from the American economy. But try as I might, I cannot muster the same Panglossian enthusiasm as my colleague about the way policy is ...


December 17, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1391055

WHAT could be better than an economy converging rapidly on full employment? A central bank in no mood to get in the way. That is the happy combination America now enjoys, and it explains the stock market's euphoric reaction to today's meeting of the Federal Reserve.

In the statement releaed after ...


December 15, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1389605

THISweek: Russia's deepening economic crisis, consolidation in European telecoms and the business climate in Israel


December 12, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1388188

RUSSIA’S currency has dived this year: since January it has lost about 40% of its value against the dollar. To slow the rouble's fall, the central bank has been raising interest rates: yesterday it did it for the fifth time (the rate now stands at 10.5%). High interest rates are ...


December 11, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1387489

On December 3rd George Osborne, Britain's chancellor, delivered the autumn statement, the country's annual mini-budget. We are hosting a round-table discussion of the statement and the direction of British economic policy. Our final contributor is Matthew Whittaker, chief economist at the Resolution Foundation.


December 11, 2014, 10:44 am, 1387391

SIX months ago, the European Central Bank made an offer that seemed too good to be true. As part of its policies to counter low growth and inflation in the euro zone, iIt would make available to banks funds lasting until 2018 at dirtcheap fixed rates. By the time of ...


December 11, 2014, 8:44 am, 1387310

THERE IS no widely recognised, monetary measure of a country's natural, human and physical assets. Economists usually make do with GDP (which anyway gauges income rather than assets). But a report published by the United Nations offers a broader indicator: “inclusive wealth”.

It is the second of its kind; the ...


December 10, 2014, 4:44 am, 1386441

On December 3rd George Osborne, Britain's chancellor, delivered the autumn statement, the country's annual mini-budget. We are hosting a round-table discussion of the statement and the direction of British economic policy. Today’s contributor is Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.