Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”

August 22, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1666634
Incumbents do better in areas with high-skilled trade but worse in counties with more low-skilled manufacturing.

August 18, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1665660
David Wessel: Hillary Clinton recognizes the challenges posed by the distressingly slow pace of economic growth but hasn't clearly articulated a growth strategy.

August 11, 2016, 6:45 pm, 1663613
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Thursday expanded his economic policy advisory council, adding eight women to the 14 men named over the past week, including a Washington economist advocating the gold standard, the head of a Texas "free market research institute," the chairwoman of a California private equity fund, ...

August 11, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1663525
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump promised a home-building group "big league" tax cuts and "massive" cuts in regulation while add said Democratic rival Hillary Clinton would spoil the economy.

August 7, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1661890
Donald Trump's campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, said the Republican presidential nominee would focus on the economy in the coming week to get his campaign's narrative back "where it belongs."

August 1, 2016, 4:45 pm, 1659652
Donald Trump’s decision to respond directly to Khizr Khan, the father a decorated U.S. Army captain who was killed in the Iraq War, marked the second time in as many months where Trump escalated a personal feud rather than focus on a disappointing economic report that he could have used ...

August 1, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1659610
Whatever damage trade had done occurred mainly in the 1980s and early 1990s, before the trade agreement.

August 1, 2016, 8:44 am, 1659477
[wsj-responsive-image P="
458_Mcgint_G_20160712125342.jpg" J="
458_Mcgint_G_20160712125342.jpg" M="
458_Mcgint_G_20160712125342.jpg" caption="Katie McGinty greets supporters in April." credit="JACQUELINE LARMA/ASSOCIATED PRESS" placement="Header" suppressEnlarge="false" ignorerespwidth="553" ignorerespheight="369" ] Freedom Partners Action Fund, a super PAC backed by billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch, on Monday launched ad campaigns worth nearly $4 million in three states with key Senate races, according ...

July 29, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1658760
Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Tim Kaine, kicked off a three-day bus tour Friday, celebrating what they called an upbeat Democratic convention while criticizing Republican Donald Trump for spreading doom and gloom.

July 28, 2016, 6:44 am, 1658069
Robert Litan: A comeback in high-growth entrepreneurship is especially welcome given the outsize importance such firms play to innovation.