Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”

April 28, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1630978
Defenders of President Barack Obama’s Pacific trade agreement are taking out the big guns. Eight former secretaries of defense signed a letter asking congressional leaders to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, as a way to renew American leadership in the Pacific as China flexes its economic and military muscle.

April 27, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1630464
Even $12 million was not enough to win a Democratic primary for a House seat from Maryland.

April 14, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1626697
Michael Singh: Few would assert that sanctions have changed Russian behavior in Ukraine, the Assad regime's tactics in Syria, or the Kim regime's actions in North Korea.

April 12, 2016, 10:44 am, 1625902
Salim Furth: Why is Puerto Rico so “inhospitable” to workers without college degrees? The island is subject to U.S. wage rules, but incomes and productivity are much lower than in U.S. states.

April 12, 2016, 8:44 am, 1625848
Elections are often buffeted by economic ups and downs. What if this year it worked the other way around, with political ups and downs buffeting the economy?

April 11, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1625707
The Pew Research Center recently polled voters on whether life in America is better or worse than it was 50 years ago "for people like them." Sure enough, some demographic groups have been facing a tough economy for decades.

March 28, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1621695
Guns will not be permitted at the Republican National Convention this summer in Cleveland, the U.S. Secret Service said Monday in response to a petition circulated by gun rights activists.

March 16, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1618437
Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have recently held out Eaton Corp. as being a corporate ingrate that has abandoned its Cleveland headquarters for a low-tax haven and is now moving manufacturing operations to Mexico.

March 16, 2016, 12:45 pm, 1618395
Freedom Partners Action Fund, a super PAC backed by billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch, on Wednesday released its first ad of the 2016 cycle, targeting Democratic Senate candidate Ted Strickland in Ohio.

February 9, 2016, 6:44 am, 1606688
The White House’s annual spending blueprint is routinely deemed “dead on arrival” as soon as its lands on Capitol Hill. How Barack Obama managed to achieve broad aims of his annual policy wishlist last year is instructive as he enters his final budget battle.