Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”


May 11, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1746627
President Donald Trump laid out his latest thinking on taxes, immigration, his willingness to run deficits and more in a newly published interview with the Economist. Here 's a look at what he said, with analysis on where these issues stand in the Washington policy debate. ...


May 11, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1746626
President Donald Trump has a favorite catch phrase when it comes to describing his economic growth plans. "We have to prime the pump," he told the Economist in an interview last week that was published on Thursday.


March 10, 2017, 4:44 pm, 1727680
Did the White House break a federal rule when officials tweeted about a major economic indicator?


March 10, 2017, 2:44 pm, 1727636
President Donald Trump and his allies on Friday cheered a Department of Labor report showing strong U.S. job growth, after routinely denouncing the measure on the campaign trail as "phony."


February 28, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1724426
Ahead of President Donald Trump's speech to Congress on Tuesday night, the White House released excerpts of his prepared text.


February 28, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1724425
President Donald Trump addressed a joint session of Congress in a prime-time speech Tuesday night in which he said he will look to jump-start momentum on his top initiatives, including overhauls of the tax code and health law. Here is the full text of his prepared speech.


February 28, 2017, 8:45 am, 1724141
President Donald Trump will address a joint session of Congress Tuesday night in a prime-time speech that will allow him to reset the debate over top issues facing his administration and Congress, or offer a freewheeling airing of old campaign themes and grievances. Which one will it be?


January 9, 2017, 6:44 am, 1708805
The U.S. economy of 2017 is not the economy of 2009 or even 2013. It has finally recovered from the Great Recession. So what’s to be done? A lot. Here are a few thoughts. ...


December 13, 2016, 6:44 am, 1702069
Peter Olson and David Wessel: Most other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, release a staff or consensus forecast for unemployment, inflation, and GDP. So why doesn’t the Fed?


December 2, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1699289
This morning's monthly jobs report showed the unemployment rate hitting 4.6%, the lowest level in nine years. While there's still a month and a half before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, this morning's report gives a pretty good idea of the job market that the new administration will inherit.