Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”


September 22, 2016, 8:44 am, 1677613
Outside spending groups backing Senate and House Republicans saw a large fundraising boost in August fueled by several billionaires, outpacing Democrats in the final stretch of the campaign.


September 14, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1673025
Salim Furth: The 5.2% one-year growth in median household income might be the best economic news of the recovery, but it also signals that the recovery is over and that further improvements will be harder won.


September 6, 2016, 6:44 am, 1670402
Peter Olson and David Wessel: The inflation rate is higher now than it was in 2015. But over the course of 2016 we’ve seen no apparent progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target.


September 2, 2016, 8:44 am, 1669725
A group called the Partnership for a New American Economy, a bipartisan alliance of mayors and business leaders, issued a series of 51 economic research report in recent weeks showing the economic gains immigrants produce in each state as well as the District of Columbia.


August 30, 2016, 8:44 am, 1668715
Donald Trump is caught in a bind similar to one Mitt Romney faced: He portrays an economy in crisis while many of the states that will determine if he wins or loses are doing distinctly well.


August 26, 2016, 8:44 am, 1667816
Today on the campaign trail and more of the biggest news stories and exclusive features from Washington on politics, policy, financial regulation and defense.


August 22, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1666634
Incumbents do better in areas with high-skilled trade but worse in counties with more low-skilled manufacturing.


August 18, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1665660
David Wessel: Hillary Clinton recognizes the challenges posed by the distressingly slow pace of economic growth but hasn't clearly articulated a growth strategy.


August 11, 2016, 6:45 pm, 1663613
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Thursday expanded his economic policy advisory council, adding eight women to the 14 men named over the past week, including a Washington economist advocating the gold standard, the head of a Texas "free market research institute," the chairwoman of a California private equity fund, ...


August 11, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1663525
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump promised a home-building group "big league" tax cuts and "massive" cuts in regulation while add said Democratic rival Hillary Clinton would spoil the economy.