Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”

January 9, 2017, 6:44 am, 1708805
The U.S. economy of 2017 is not the economy of 2009 or even 2013. It has finally recovered from the Great Recession. So what’s to be done? A lot. Here are a few thoughts. ...

December 13, 2016, 6:44 am, 1702069
Peter Olson and David Wessel: Most other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, release a staff or consensus forecast for unemployment, inflation, and GDP. So why doesn’t the Fed?

December 2, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1699289
This morning's monthly jobs report showed the unemployment rate hitting 4.6%, the lowest level in nine years. While there's still a month and a half before President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office, this morning's report gives a pretty good idea of the job market that the new administration will inherit.

December 1, 2016, 8:44 am, 1698866
Putting 1,000 Carrier jobs in context: Indianapolis has lost 30,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000 and Indiana has lost over 150,000.

November 30, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1698686
Two conservatives in Congress have proposed allowing donors to give unlimited amounts of money to federal political candidates, a long-sought measure given fresh energy with the imminent Republican control of Congress and the White House.

November 28, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1697873
Salim Furth: The authors were curious whether the rise in mortality documented among middle-age white men could be attributed to sudden and persistent unemployment caused by expanded trade with China.

November 22, 2016, 8:44 am, 1696444
HERE’S A LOOK AT THE DAY AHEAD OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: President Barack Obama hosts a ceremony to present 21 recipients the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor, at 2:55 p.m. at the White House. The U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade session continues in Washington, D.C. TRUMP ...

November 14, 2016, 8:44 am, 1693854
HERE’S A LOOK AT THE DAY AHEAD OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: President Barack Obama is on foreign travel to Greece, Germany and Peru through Nov. 21. Secretary of State John Kerry travels to Muscat, Oman, to meet with Sultan Qaboos and Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi to discuss Yemen and efforts to reach ...

November 10, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1692879
President-elect Donald Trump will enter the White House having donated to more than a fifth of the incoming Senate. At the top of that list: Chuck Schumer, who is poised to become his chief rival in Washington.

November 9, 2016, 10:44 am, 1692320
Trump Clinches Presidency After Key Battleground Wins Seib: Trump’s ‘Deplorables’ Rise Up to Reshape America Republicans Keep Control of Senate | GOP Retains House Majority Trump Faces Foreign-Policy Quandaries Trump Win Gives GOP Fuel to Slash Taxes Businesses Face Uncertainty | Market Reaction Video: Trump Presidential Win Ushers In Shock, ...