Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”


July 23, 2014, 6:45 pm, 1304219
The White House said the downing of two additional Ukrainian military aircraft Wednesday confirms U.S. charges that Moscow has continued to support and supply pro-Russia separatists in Ukraine, even after the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. ...


July 15, 2014, 4:45 pm, 1301395
David Wessel: With no change in tax and spending policies, federal debt would reach 111% of GDP in 2039, according to CBO projections. But tweaking the economic, demographic or health-care spending assumptions produces worse or, conversely, milder scenarios. ...


July 11, 2014, 6:45 pm, 1299972
Vice President speaks at the National Governors Association convention Friday, July 11, 2014, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey) Associated Press Vice President Joe Biden brought the Obama administration’s appeal for a highway-funding fix to the nation’s governors on Friday, lamenting that partisanship in Congress had jeopardized money for roads, ...


July 11, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1299873
In a roundtable discussion, the WSJ's Jerry Seib, Neil King Jr., Laura Meckler and Jay Solomon discuss President Barack Obama's immigration crisis, tensions between Israeli forces and Gaza militants, and the U.S. economy.


July 10, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1299469
Jim Manley: House Speaker John Boehner is proud of what he calls his chamber's record of passing jobs-related measures. Never mind, apparently, that these measures go nowhere in the Senate.


July 10, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1299321
Robert Litan: Despite the strengthening recovery, many recent college graduates are not working in the jobs they trained for. A paper by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that college is still worth it--but for a grim reason.


July 10, 2014, 10:45 am, 1299170
Robert Litan: Despite the strengthening recovery, many recent college graduates are not working in the jobs they trained for. A paper by two economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that college is still worth it--but for a grim reason.


July 9, 2014, 2:45 pm, 1298697
President Barack Obama struck a partisan tone in an economic speech Wednesday as he chastised Republicans in Congress and mocked the GOP for threatening to sue him.


July 9, 2014, 6:45 am, 1298461
Economists cheered when a monthly report showed slightly more than 2.5 million people quit their jobs in May, but top policy makers aren't convinced the economy is back to full health.


July 7, 2014, 8:44 am, 1297407
Josh Bivens: Too often left unaddressed in the “how much slack” debate is that there is not only a lack of evidence that wages are about to start growing rapidly but also that it wouldn’t be a big problem if they did. ...