Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”

July 20, 2016, 6:44 am, 1655271
Salim Furth: The delays tie up money and personnel in profitless limbo, which directly affects developers' bottom lines. The end users--home buyers and renters--ultimately pay for the delays.

July 18, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1654780
Michael Singh: China would be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. not moving ahead with TPP, which makes the GOP platform, and its skepticism toward Beijing and trade agreements, a bit contradictory. ...

July 18, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1654702
David Wessel: The three options chosen most frequently by people who have played to completion are a $25-a-ton carbon tax; eliminating tax breaks for oil, gas and coal; and lifting the ceiling on the Social Security payroll tax. ...

July 13, 2016, 12:45 pm, 1653352
Robert Litan: The challenge for “flyover cities” such as Wichita, Lincoln, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and other places enjoying a tech-led revival is to find ways of ensuring that the benefits of their comebacks spread widely.

July 13, 2016, 8:44 am, 1653273
The primary outside spending group supporting House Republicans announced on Wednesday that it raised $4.6 million in the second quarter of this year, signaling rapidly growing interest in vulnerable House races.

July 7, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1651893
John Feehery: What all the reports amount to is: Donald Trump is not playing nice with political insiders. That should serve him well in his populist campaign.

July 7, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1651881
Robert Litan: With interest growing in socially responsible enterprises, one expects growth in opportunities to marry Internet-based platforms with older businesses to generate economic wins all around.

June 30, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1649986
Donald Trump on Thursday said his trade proposals would mean better jobs for American workers and higher prices for U.S. consumers.

June 8, 2016, 6:44 am, 1643571
David Wessel: One can learn a lot from reading the passages in a Fed speech that deal with matters other than the timing of the next interest-rate increase.

May 27, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1640477
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