Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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WSJ:  Washington Wire

"Political Insight and Analysis From The Wall Street Journal’s Capital Bureau”

February 9, 2016, 6:44 am, 1606688
The White House’s annual spending blueprint is routinely deemed “dead on arrival” as soon as its lands on Capitol Hill. How Barack Obama managed to achieve broad aims of his annual policy wishlist last year is instructive as he enters his final budget battle.

February 8, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1606409
Salim Furth: In Iowa, Nevada, and Washington state, more than 30% of the workforce is licensed. In 13 other states, less than 20% of the workforce is licensed. The burden is far from equal. ...

February 8, 2016, 8:44 am, 1606323
Since 1964, three election years—1980, 1992 and 2008—have posted a higher unemployment rate in November than January, the first and third as the result of a recession. So as you track the latest poll numbers, keep an eye on the jobless rate, too.

January 26, 2016, 10:44 am, 1602103
Hillary Clinton’s proposed tax increases would raise $498 billion for the government over the next decade, after including the effects of capital gains tax hikes that would actually decrease federal revenue, according to an analysis released by the Tax Foundation.

January 21, 2016, 8:44 am, 1600753
Today on the campaign trail and more of the biggest news stories and exclusive features from Washington on politics, policy, financial regulation, defense and more.

January 20, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1600627
Diane Lim: The longer policy changes are postponed, the harder they eventually will be--and the harder they will fall on the future generations that are burdened by them.

January 14, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1598860
Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, cast further doubt on what was already a longshot attempt by congressional Republicans and some Democrats to reach a deal on international tax policy before the end of the Obama administration.

January 10, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1597605
House Speaker Paul Ryan feels his Republican bid with Mitt Romney for the White House four years ago improperly overlooked hard-hit neighborhoods -- and said pressure from political consultants contributed to the error.

January 8, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1597306
Andrew T. Levin: The latest data confirm that the labor market still has plenty of room to strengthen further.

January 8, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1597225
President Barack Obama will travel to Omaha, Neb., and Baton Rogue, La., next week, after his final State of the Union address on Tuesday.