Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


July 28, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1306805

Judge Griesa has approved Citibank's request to transfer funds it received in payment of both dollar- and peso-denominated, Argentine-law bonds. Order attached. The difficulty, as described in this recent letter from Citibank, is that some of the ...


July 28, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1306643

At its annual meeting, the National Conference of Commissioners on Uniform State Laws (NCCUSL) formally adopted the Uniform Voidable Transactions Act (UVTA). Under its provisions, I believe it says any service member in uniform will be able to avoid a transaction . . . . Hold on, let ...


July 28, 2014, 10:44 am, 1306474

The bill admits, that the whole amount divided among all the [creditors], was not enough to satisfy the complainant’s debt. What a singular proposition then to maintain, that although the whole were only entitled, in Law, to a less sum than this individual claims, out of the ...


July 25, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1305684

As Anna points out, there are indeed moments of poignancy in the pari passu litigation, largely having to do with the fact that, days from a major sovereign default induced in no small part by their rulings, the US courts only now seem to be ...


July 25, 2014, 2:44 am, 1305255

It is too easy to miss poignant moments in the news avalanche of Argentina debt litigation. Here is one from Judge Griesa's monologue at the July 22 hearing:

I can't remember whether it was 2010 or 2011, but thereabouts, the attorneys for the plaintiffs requested the Court ...


July 24, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1305140

So we are again treated to what has become an annual tradition:  the analysis of Dodd-Frank on its anniversary.  The Republicans trot out a report critical of the Act, and the Democrats defend it.  Yawn.

Actually, this year the Republican report is not half bad.  Sure ...


July 23, 2014, 2:44 am, 1303806

Kudos to Joseph Cotterill at FTAlphaville for an excellent post on the obsession with the Rights-Upon-Future-Offers (RUFO) clause in Argentina's restructured bonds, which seems to be driving Argentina to a payment default on those very bonds. Judge Griesa is not buying it, though --  at a hearing on ...


July 20, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1303743

On behalf of everyone at Credit Slips, I want to express our profound sadness at hearing of the tragic and untimely passing of Professor Dan Markel. a professor of law at Florida State University and a prominent criminal law theorist. Dan was the founder of PrawfsBlawg and a ...


July 20, 2014, 6:44 am, 1303630

In a long story in today's edition, the New York Times is reporting a bubble in often deceptive and abusive subprime auto lending on unaffordable terms, including very high rates of interest.  Although not quite the threat to the overall economy that the subprime mortgage bubble created eight or nine years ...


July 18, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1303113

Today marks the eighth anniversary of the launch of Credit Slips. That means we have been around long enough to get ...