Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


October 22, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1355911
The long awaited credit risk retention rules for securitization are out. The big question--whether the qualified residential mortgage or QRM exemption would be narrower than the CFPB's qualified mortgage or QM safe harbor to the Ability to Repay requirement for mortgages is no. QRM=QM. The short ...


October 22, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1355727

Yves Smith has had some great coverage of the AIG bailout trail over on Naked Capitalism.  While the litigation, as Yves has characterized it, is a bit like a brawl between the ugly stepsisters, it's telling us all kinds of stuff we didn't know (or at least couldn't ...


October 19, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1353763

I was pleased to see today’s New York Times editorial entitled “A Rate Cap for All Consumer Loans.”  It created a very public description of an industry indiscretion involving loaning money to the military at over 36%. Those loans are illegal because a federal law makes ...


October 14, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1351215

When I first heard about the NY Fed's Doomsday book, my initial thought was, "Wow, they've got a comprehensive survey of land titles, so MERS really isn't an issue!" Then I realized it was a Doomsday book, not a Domesday book. Apparently the Doomsday book is ...


October 10, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1349350

Bankruptcy filings have dipped to their lowest rate since 1990, as previously ...


October 9, 2014, 2:44 pm, 1348643

October 9, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1348563

"What is the optimal consumer bankruptcy law?" Now that's an abstract first line that grabs my attention! I've thought about this question for most of my academic career, and I've struggled to find solid bases for an answer. Now, Indiana Univeristy economist Gray ...


October 7, 2014, 8:44 am, 1347205

Not much new to say from the last time, except that this contempt order was signed by the judge. Argentina must "reverse entirely" the steps it has taken to remove BNY-Mellon and install a new trustee and otherwise start "complying ...


October 7, 2014, 12:44 am, 1347020

The IMF released its long-awaited paper on sovereign debt contract reform, advocating single-tier aggregated collective action (majority amendment) clauses and a clarification of the pari passu clause to preclude its future use to block payments on restrutured bonds, a la NML v. Argentina. An accessible summary of key ...


October 5, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1346369

Professor Bill Whitford of the University of Wisconsin will be an intellectual hero to many of the Credit Slips readers and contributors. Bill has done pathbreaking work in consumer bankruptcy law, consumer law, and corporate reorganizations. On October 24, the Temple Law Review will hold a symposium ...