Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”

July 23, 2014, 2:44 am, 1303806

Kudos to Joseph Cotterill at FTAlphaville for an excellent post on the obsession with the Rights-Upon-Future-Offers (RUFO) clause in Argentina's restructured bonds, which seems to be driving Argentina to a payment default on those very bonds. Judge Griesa is not buying it, though --  at a hearing on ...

July 20, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1303743

On behalf of everyone at Credit Slips, I want to express our profound sadness at hearing of the tragic and untimely passing of Professor Dan Markel. a professor of law at Florida State University and a prominent criminal law theorist. Dan was the founder of PrawfsBlawg and a ...

July 20, 2014, 6:44 am, 1303630

In a long story in today's edition, the New York Times is reporting a bubble in often deceptive and abusive subprime auto lending on unaffordable terms, including very high rates of interest.  Although not quite the threat to the overall economy that the subprime mortgage bubble created eight or nine years ...

July 18, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1303113

Today marks the eighth anniversary of the launch of Credit Slips. That means we have been around long enough to get ...

July 18, 2014, 6:44 am, 1302940

This week the CFPB announced it's seeking public comments on a proposed policy that would allow consumers who file ...

July 17, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1302690

At today's House Judiciary Committee hearing on Operation Choke Point it seemed that Choke Point's critics are conflating a fairly narrow DOJ civil investigation with separate general guidance given by prudential regulators.  In particular, Rep. Issa attempted to tie them together by noting that the DOJ referenced ...

July 15, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1301262

Pop quiz:  what do payday lenders have in common with on-line gun shops, escort services, pornography websites, on-line gambling and the purveyors of drug paraphrenalia or racist materials?  

You can read my testimony for this Thursday's House Judiciary Committee, Subcommittee on Regulatory ...

July 15, 2014, 6:44 am, 1301030

A quick note on a couple of events today that might be of interest to Slips readers:

First, I'm participating in an ABI webinar about "chapter 14" and related topics.

Second, I'll be testifying in front of the House Judiciary Committee on proposed ...

July 11, 2014, 10:44 am, 1299736

Chapter 13 trustees handle millions of dollars in plan payments every year. At some point in likely a sizable portion of cases, the trustee accumulates these payments instead of distributing the funds to creditors. What happens if a debtor's case is converted while the trustee has this accumulated ...

July 10, 2014, 10:44 am, 1299169

To what extent does secured credit law protect creditors from the consequences of mistaken actions made on their behalf? I