Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


February 18, 2017, 2:44 pm, 1721210

This is a joint post by Mark Weidemaier and Mitu Gulati

In a previous post, we talked about how ordinary corporate-law principles, and especially the rules concerning piercing the corporate veil, might play an important role in any debt restructuring conducted by Venezuela or PDVSA, the ...


February 15, 2017, 12:44 am, 1719953

Here’s the question CFPB commission proponents need to be able to answer convincingly:  what would the CFPB have done differently over the past five and a half years if it had been a commission, rather than a single director?  What supposed overreach would not have occurred? ...


February 15, 2017, 12:44 am, 1719952
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas 5th) has an alternative fact problem. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed Hensarling alleged that "Since the CFPB’s advent, the number of banks offering free checking has drastically declined, while many bank ...


February 13, 2017, 10:44 am, 1719297

(This is a joint post by Mark Weidemaier and Mitu Gulati.)

In November 2016, Klaus Regling, managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, announced that reforms were going so well in Greece that it would be able to return to the private debt markets by 2017. ...


February 6, 2017, 8:44 am, 1717017

This is a joint post by Mark Weidemaier and Mitu Gulati.

At least in the short term, the odds of Venezuela continuing to service its mountain of external debt are looking slightly better, though long-term prospects remain bleak. State-owned oil company PDVSA may be even worse ...


February 3, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1716663

If Trump is planning on attempting to remove CFPB Director Richard Cordray "for cause" he's hardly going about it in a smart way.  The Trump administration keeps generating more and more evidence that any for-cause removal would be purely pretextual, which strengthens Corday's hand were he to litigate ...


February 3, 2017, 2:44 pm, 1716550

The new Executive Order is out. At heart, it says nothing. The press will probably make it into a big deal. 

Update:  I should clarify that I have no doubt the administration plans to gut Dodd-Frank. The order simply says "we ...


February 3, 2017, 8:44 am, 1716415

Apparently just in time for another missive from the White House – and a bit of a tantrum from the House – I've got a new Dealbook up where I suggest that Orderly Liquidation Authority and title II might be a first target. I also ...


February 1, 2017, 6:44 pm, 1715835

When I heard that the President had nominated 10th Circuit Judge Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court, I wondered what his bankruptcy-related opinions might tell us about him. Bill Rochelle beat me to it, with his characteristically insightful analysis of ...


January 27, 2017, 6:44 pm, 1714422

The Judiciary Data and Analysis Office of the Administrative Office of the US Courts has launched a new feature called "Just the Facts," highlighting statistical trends in the US judiciary. Table 2 and Chart 3 of the inaugural report reflect a curious spike in ...