Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


April 17, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1457243

Debt restructuring is the second largest source of outside financing for Ukraine’s new IMF program. The Fund itself brings $17.5 billion over four years; $9.6 billion comes from governments and other multilaterals (including Europe, the United States, and most recently, China), leaving $15.3 billion for the "debt operation." The jargon makes debt restructuring sound like ...


April 17, 2015, 2:44 am, 1456936

Ukraine's bond restructuring talks are in high gear, and, as ever, Russia is trouble du jour. Not only is it threatening to hold out in the bond deal and take Ukraine to arbitration, Russia also seems poised to block IMF disbursements to Ukraine using an arcane Fund policy on "lending into ...


April 16, 2015, 10:44 pm, 1456878

Over at Dealb%k, I argue that section 117 of Dodd-Frank is more Siouxsie and the Banshees than Eagles.


April 16, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1456552

Clearly, the biggest surprise in consumer borrowing since the crash has been the explosive expansion of student loan debt. It has surpassed both auto lending and credit card lending. And, since it ties with Payday Lending and pre-crash sub-prime mortgage lending for the thinnest underwriting there are defaults ...


April 16, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1456551

Our former co-blogger, Senator Elizabeth Warren, delivered an incredibly important speech yesterday laying out the work still to be done on financial reform. This speech is a bigger deal than Senator Warren's Antonio Weiss speech or her famous Citibank speech. This speech is a blueprint for ...


April 15, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1455852

Prior to the crash, only a very few macro-economists were studying consumer borrowing and fewer still were investigating inequality of income or of wealth as an important macro-economic factor. Work in macro-economics is done at academic institutions, the Fed, think tanks and government and private enterprises. Historically, very ...


April 14, 2015, 8:44 pm, 1455460

 In the debate in Wisconsin over the  Right to Work bill, the legislators opposed to the bill questioned why no businesses were testifying in support of the law, if it was--as stated--going to drive business growth.

The Wisconsin Assembly got an answer when James Murray testified ...


April 14, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1455168

The ABI has spent thousands of hours on its Chapter 11 Commission Report; the National Bankruptcy Conference is hard at work on its "Rethinking Chapter 11" project. Underlying these and other such efforts is an overwhelming frustration with the failure of Chapter 11, under current circumstances to empower ...


April 14, 2015, 12:44 pm, 1455169

The New York Times carried an important story about the risky investment moves of life insurance companies. There's a lot of good stuff in the story, but it missed an important angle, namely the consumer harm that has already resulted from bank affiliation with captive ...


April 13, 2015, 2:44 am, 1454137

This is a joint post by Mark Weidemaier and Mitu Gulati.

Reports indicate that the IMF's package of financial aid to Ukraine could be in trouble if Ukraine can't or won't pay its $3-billion-plus debt to Russia. The reason is that IMF policy forbids "lending ...