Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


February 9, 2016, 10:44 am, 1606767

Argentina faces a complicated task in settling with its remaining holdouts, but there has been recent progress. The country has agreed ...


February 2, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1604521

I just read a terrific new paper by Gary Neustadter of Santa Clara University Law School, called "


February 1, 2016, 6:44 am, 1604004

The Russian government has announced announced that it plans to initiate legal proceedings against Ukraine by the end of the month to recover the $3 billion in bond debt now in default. It's not yet clear whether the proceedings will be in English courts or in arbitration. Officials ...


January 29, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1603521

January 26, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1602141

The question presented to the Supreme Court in Husky Int’l v. Ritz is so bizarre, I just ...


January 21, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1600843

The local press has been abuzz the last two days with talk of Illinois Republicans' plans to take over


January 13, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1598589

Forecasting U.S. bankruptcy filings for this year was a little more complicated. In a comment to my post about the total 2015 bankruptcy filings, Erich Fabricius made the astute observation that December 2016 saw the introduction of new bankruptcy forms and that could explain my befuddlement at the ...


January 12, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1598252

As always, it has been very enjoyable to be a guest here. Three thoughts until next time.

1. At least two major organizations are about to join or have recently stepped into the effort to provide help to distressed student loan borrowers. National Foundation for Credit Counseling is launching an effort ...


January 7, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1596987

Quite a few Credit Slips bloggers and former guests are panelists at the session the Debtor-Creditor Section of the Association of American Law Schools (AALS) meeting.The session is entitled, "Bankruptcy for the Ninety-Five Percent: Making the System Work for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses and Sole Proprietors" and will take ...


January 7, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1596986

According to the latest figures from Epiq Systems, total U.S. bankruptcy filings dropped 10% in 2015. ...