Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


September 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1328189

Ding Dong! The Witch is Dead! We have a contract fix against holdouts in sovereign debt restructuring. Here are my two cents on the proposed reforms, as of last Friday. Bottom line is way positive. In my admittedly biased opinion, this is unusually meaningful ...


September 2, 2014, 8:44 am, 1327773

Plan confirmation time. Doesn't everyone relish a big trial? Headlines in national newspapers breathlessly proclaim that the fate of Detroit's future is ...


August 31, 2014, 8:44 pm, 1327271

Last December the FDIC put out for comment a proposal for a Single-Point-of-Entry (SPOE) Strategy to implement its Orderly Liquidation Authority (OLA) under Title II of Dodd-Frank. Single-Point-of-Entry has gotten a lot of policy traction. The Treasury Secretary supports it and there’s huge buy-in from Wall ...


August 28, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1326149

Thoughts on cramdown and "make whole" call provisions, over at Dealb%k.


August 26, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1324891

Mark Fogarty has a nice write-up in National Mortgage News of a book chapter about duties to serve in housing finance that I wrote with Jannecke Ratcliffe for a volume entitled Homeownership Built to Last (Brookings/Joint Center on Housing Studies ...


August 26, 2014, 12:44 am, 1324404

Financial crisis litigation has been going on for several years now and has been resulting in lots of piecemeal settlements. As a result, it's easy to miss the big picture.  There's actually been quite a lot of settlements covering a fair amount of money.  (Not all of it ...


August 23, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1323582

The latest consumer financial product to come under the regulatory microscope is subprime auto lending, which has seen a boom in the last few years.  The subprime auto market's boom underscores a real problem in consumer financial regulation: different consumer financial products have developed different substantive ...


August 22, 2014, 4:44 pm, 1323228

So Argentina plans to ditch Bank of New York Mellon, deposit funds with a ...


August 21, 2014, 12:44 pm, 1322430

I commend to Slips readers Alex Tabarrok's post over at Marginal Revolution entitled "Ferguson and the Modern Debtor’s Prison." 


August 20, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1322041

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has proposed a law authorizing the executive to reroute payments on the restructured bonds out of New York, and to offer all bondholders local-law bonds on 2010 exchange terms. All the buzz has been about the swap. But there is no swap on the ...