Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”

June 28, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1649176

In contrast to the cacophony created by Brexit, EU authorities have been working for several years on a

June 17, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1646338

Over at Dealb%k.

June 13, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1644920

I'm still digesting the opinion, but the obvious conclusion is that impressions from oral argument may be misleading. It also suggests that states that do not use chapter 9, have no ability to come up with a state law alternative. It is chapter 9 or nothing, which ...

June 13, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1644919

The opinion is a good reminder that oral argument impressions don't always carry over to the final written product. In short, both the majority and dissent approach this as a simple matter of statutory construction, and in that regard the majority opinion is simply a more clearly articulated version ...

June 2, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1642014

The CFPB's proposed payday rule making is out.  There's a nice summary here.  

I'm going to reserve comment other than to note a critical implication of a rare area of agreement between the supporters and opponents of the payday rule:  it will result in a lot ...

June 2, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1641965

If you happen to be at the 2016 Law & Society Association meetings in New Orleans, stop by the panels from the Collaborative Research Network (CRN) on Household Finance. This group got its start as an international collaborative studying overindebtedness thanks for the leadership of people like the ...

June 2, 2016, 12:44 am, 1641773

Every wondered how ApplePay works?  What the whole deal with Chip cards is?  Those contactless readers at stores?  If you're looking to nerd out on 21st century payment technology...and its legal and business implications, look no further.  I have a new paper out entitled

June 1, 2016, 10:44 am, 1641547

Deliberations of the Advisory Committee on Bankruptcy Rules have generated great materials relevant to burdens of proof in bankruptcy litigation that judges and ...

May 29, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1640739

It has taken several months, but the Russian Particulars of Claim and Ukraine's Defence (akin to complaint and answer in U.S. civil procedure) have now been filed. Distilled to its essence, Ukraine's response, as the Financial Times notes, ...

May 26, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1640157

H.R. 5278, containing debt restructuring authority and an oversight board for Puerto Rico, inched closer to passage after ...