September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”
Two big rulings in Detroit's Chapter 9 bankruptcy today: first that Detroit is eligible for Chapter 9 and second that it may impair its pension obligations in bankruptcy. Both rulings were delivered orally from the bench and transcripts aren't yet available, so it's hard to really parse them ...
The latest bankruptcy filing statistics from Epiq Systems have just been released. They show that U.S. bankruptcy filings in ...
A headline about Ireland's new personal insolvency relief system crows, "Most of borrower's debt written off in first deal under new ...
The CFPB just settled an enormous enforcement action against payday lender Cash America. Under the settlement, Cash America will pay $5 million in penalties and $14 million in refunds to overcharged customers. The CFPB found that Cash America or its affiliates robo-signed documents in debt collection ...
We still have a ways to go, five years after the Global Financial Crisis. Total mortgage debt has eased down from 10.5 trillion dollars to 9.3 trillion, but that 10% drop aligns poorly with the 25% drop in home values, not to mention stagnant real wages. ...
So this morning's FT tells us that Royal Bank of Scotland is in hot water for allegedly playing hardball with its borrowers, in the hopes of acquiring some of their assets on the cheap. That is RBS has adopted something of a "loan to own" ...
Just as I was getting ready to roll out an article agreeing with Creola Johnson and explaining why Congress should implement a 36% cap, like the Military Lending Act, for all of us, the Dealbook rolled out this story. As it turns ...
I've got a new article out in the Duke Law Journal entitled The Paper Chase: Securitization, Foreclosure, and the Uncertainty of Mortgage Title. The article is about the confusion securitization has caused in foreclosure cases because of the shift in legal methods for mortgage transfer and ...