Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”

October 20, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1685354

On Election Day, the Supreme Court will hear argument in the cases of  ...

October 14, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1683721

Will you be in San Francisco for the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges annual meeting and related events? Please mark your calendars ...

October 14, 2016, 2:44 am, 1683557

I just want to observe the irony that while the anti-consumer echo chamber was jumping up and down in joy over the ruling in PHH v. CFPB (see, e.g., here, and here), Wells Fargo's CEO resigned over a consumer financial abuse scandal.  Hmmm.   But surely ...

October 11, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1682775

The headlines look pretty bad:  the DC Circuit Court of Appeals held the CFPB's structure to be unconstitutional in a case call PHH v. CFPB, which deals with kickbacks in captive private mortgage reinsurance arrangements allegedly in violation of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act.  In fact, ...

September 27, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1678970

new paper by Franceso D'Acunto and Albert Rossi, both at the University of Maryland's Department of Finance, contends that the Dodd-Frank Act resulted in "a substantial redistribution of credit from middle-class households to wealthy households", as lenders reacted to regulations by reducing credit to middle-class households and increasing ...

September 26, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1678721
I'm not an oenophile.  But some folks are, and some of them spend very large amounts of money on wine, even without knowing how it tastes.  Not surprisingly, this is a market vulnerable to fraud. One fraud varietal is simply to market swill as high-end wine.  But ...

September 24, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1678220

John Dizard has a useful, and clearly written, piece on the lay of the land in this morning's FT. What puzzles me is why PDVSA, the national oil company,  has not done a UK scheme of arrangement or a US prepack to exchange the bonds, instead of messing ...

September 22, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1677707

"But Chapter 9 has awakened, and we do not presume further disputes over its interpretive and practical complexities will remain long at rest."

So says a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit in Deocampo v. Potts (14-16192), filed since the

September 22, 2016, 12:44 am, 1677520

Over on Twitter, Michael Barr noticed that there's an eerie similarity between Wells Fargo employees team members being incentivized to open up unauthorized deposit and credit card accounts for consumers and another practice that got Wells in trouble in 2011, falsifying borrower income and employment information in ...

September 22, 2016, 12:44 am, 1677519

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that incentive-based compensation like the type featured in Wells Fargo's current and previous consent orders has the potential to encourage fraud and steering of consumers into inappropriate products in order to make sales numbers.  Here's the thing:  there's little ...