Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


August 25, 2016, 8:44 am, 1667483

The pari passu litigation against Argentina—discussed extensively here on Credit Slips, on FT Alphaville, and elsewhere—caused many people to worry that future government debt restructurings would become more difficult. Some have their eye on Venezuela as the next to default, though the country and ...


August 23, 2016, 8:44 am, 1666809

Bankruptcy filings by major cities have reinvigorated attention to municipal bankruptcy. As chapter 9 and its application have become more like chapter 11, a wide range of creditors are being swept into the process. As written before, city cases now have classes ...


August 22, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1666545

I'm trying something new this year. My consumer bankruptcy policy seminar students will read many great articles by many wonderful academics on this blog, as well as others, but this year, their "reading" will ...


August 15, 2016, 8:44 am, 1664361

I've been meaning to post about this recent decision, by Judge Rakoff in the Southern District of New York, denying motions by Uber and its CEO Travis Kalanick to compel arbitration of a class action lawsuit. More coverage here (Bloomberg) and ...


August 13, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1664103

Are tuition payments for an adult child's education, while the parents are insolvent, constructively fraudulent? As the WSJ reported this week, Bankruptcy Judge Hoffman (D. Mass.) recently held that they are not. But other courts have disagreed. In fact, there seem to be courts on


August 11, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1663611

A Conference celebrating the 25th year of International Association FO Consumer law will be held July 16 to 19, in Porto Alegre (UFRGS), Brazil. The The purpose of the Conference is to provide a forum where leading international scholars, practitioners, representatives of the consumer organization, public authorities and ...


August 4, 2016, 10:44 am, 1660796

A new CMBS issuance is set to test whether regulators will treat the 5% retained credit risk under Dodd-Frank as loans or bonds.  The difference matters because there are different capital charges for loans and bonds.  If regulators treat the retained credit risk as bonds (which matches the ...


August 1, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1659651

For the past four years, Jim Greiner, Lois Lupica, and I have been working on the Financial Distress Research Project (FDRP)*, a large randomized control trial trying to find out what works to help individuals in financial distress. As part of the project, a large number ...


July 29, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1658705

One of the hardest things about teaching, whether in an informal setting or in a classroom, is telling someone that they are . . . ahem, WRONG. Or at least not right. Or could use improvement. Or there is an opportunity to improve. Something like that. . . ...


July 26, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1657292

A common argument made against regulating small dollar credit products like payday loans is that regulation does nothing to address demand for credit, so consumers will simply substitute their consumption from payday loans to other products:  overdraft, title loans, refund anticipation loans, pawn shops, etc. The substitution hypothesis is ...