Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


May 26, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1640157

H.R. 5278, containing debt restructuring authority and an oversight board for Puerto Rico, inched closer to passage after ...


May 25, 2016, 10:44 am, 1639696

The brief is not up on the SG's webpage yet, but they are recommending granting the petition and reversing the Third Circuit.  Hat tip to Professor Lipson or Attorneys Goldblatt et al.?  I think this now places granting odds at "moderately decent."

(Those less in the weeds: CVSG ...


May 22, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1638786

After extensive briefing and hearings, the U.S. District Court presiding over the appeal (foreign readers: general trial judges in the U.S. federal court system sit in an appellate capacity over the specialized bankruptcy courts) from the U.S. Nortel proceedings punted this week.  More precisely, the judge, almost resignedly, ...


May 22, 2016, 2:44 pm, 1638768

It has become something like conventional wisdom that the pending SCOTUS case involving the Recovery Act is no longer relevant. After all, the giant interest payment due July 1 is largely attributable to GO bonds, and the Commonwealth itself is not even subject to the Recovery Act. And ...


May 19, 2016, 10:44 am, 1638009

I'm still working through the new draft of the PROMESA bill, which readers will recall provides new restructuring options for US territories (including Puerto Rico, of course). But I have to say I got a chuckle out of proposed section 303(3), which provides:


May 19, 2016, 10:44 am, 1638008

After taking a look at titles III and VI of the new draft, some quick observations:

After some waffling between drafts, it is now clear that title III cases will be heard by district court judges.  The judge for a case involving a territory (as opposed ...


May 18, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1637694

The CFPB has a new report out on auto title lending, and the findings are jaw-dropping. If ever there was a consumer financial product that looks like an exploding toaster, it is an auto title loan.  Default rates on auto title loans are one in three, ...


May 9, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1634693

As has been expected for some time, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issued a proposed rule that would prohibit companies providing consumer financial services from pairing arbitration clauses with clauses that prohibit consumers from bringing or participating in class actions. The rule also imposes ...


May 7, 2016, 8:44 pm, 1634175

Unlike the bankruptcy judges in Nortel, who synchronized their trials in a landmark case of cross-border insolvency cooperation, the appellate judges run at their own speed, so results will trickle in here and there.

The Canadians got through their appeal first, and the 3-0 ruling from the ...


May 5, 2016, 10:44 am, 1633366

About 10 years ago, Rich Hynes wrote an intriguing paper on consumer debt collection, asking "where ...