Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


July 19, 2017, 8:44 am, 1764102

Yesterday, I noted the U.S. bankruptcy filing rate of 2.38 per 1,000 persons is at historic lows. The next question is always why. In this post, I am going to try to walk through an explanation in four graphs. The upshot is that consumer debt is low ...


July 18, 2017, 4:44 pm, 1763945

The number eleven has a lot of significance in the bankruptcy world. The Bankruptcy Code is, of course, title 11 ...


July 18, 2017, 4:44 pm, 1763944

Using data from Epiq Systems, we appear to be on track for 774,000 ...


July 17, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1763535


July 11, 2017, 12:44 am, 1762016

Today the CFPB finalized the most important rulemaking it has undertaken to date.  This rulemaking substantially restricts consumer financial service providers' ability to prevent consumer class actions by forcing consumers into individual arbitrations. I believe this is by far the most important rulemaking undertaken by the CFPB because ...


July 5, 2017, 2:44 pm, 1760790

Over at Dealb%k.


June 29, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1759538

The very foundations of the Islamic finance world were shaken a few weeks ago when Dana Gas declared that


June 21, 2017, 12:44 am, 1757176

The Trump Treasury Department's Dodd-Frank Act report spends more pages on the CFPB (including mortgage regulation) than on any other issue.  There's a whole bunch of blog posts that one could write about the Treasury report, but I want to limit myself here to one item that has ...


June 16, 2017, 12:44 am, 1756105

The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act  of 1975 is a key piece of fair lending legislation.  It requires mortgage lenders to report data on loan applications and loans funded that enables both government and private groups to monitor lending patterns for violations of the Fair Housing Act and Equal ...


June 14, 2017, 10:44 pm, 1755805

Jeff Sovern has an excellent new article about arbitration clauses and class action waivers that uses the Wells Fargo fake account scandal as a test case.  He also does a monster job knocking down the Johnston-Zwyicki arbitration study.  As Sovern points out, the Johnston-Zywicki study makes ...