Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Credit Slips

"A Discussion on Credit and Bankruptcy”


May 5, 2016, 10:44 am, 1633366

About 10 years ago, Rich Hynes wrote an intriguing paper on consumer debt collection, asking "where ...


April 19, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1628112

The following post comes to us from Professor Rasmussen at USC:

Nortel Bankruptcy Sets a Dangerous Precedent For the Future of Lending

Lenders are no fools. They care deeply about the promises they receive in return for the money they hand over to the borrower. ...


April 18, 2016, 10:44 pm, 1627789

It appears that the House legislation has bogged down.  Two or three issues keep coming up, none of which make a whole lot of sense:

First, "bailouts."  I'm not sure if people making this argument actually believe it or are just using a convenient, politically toxic buzzword. ...


April 15, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1627122

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has finally announced a program to reduce principal balances of distressed home mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, eight years into the foreclosure crisis. Too little, too late would be an understatement to describe this initiative. According to the agency’s ...


April 15, 2016, 8:44 am, 1626953

It's tax time, and here comes another Porter blog post about refund anticipation loans (RALs). I've written several times before about ...


April 15, 2016, 6:44 am, 1626935

The revised draft PROMESA bill (available here) is now under debate in Congress. The bill appears to respond to some early criticisms, although its length and complexity obscures answers to some important questions. Under the circumstances, it seems sensible for the Commonwealth to consider all of its options, ...


April 14, 2016, 4:44 pm, 1626783

I again offer some initial thoughts on the revised draft bill, now subject to much debate in Congress:

The bill now clearly provides for reference of cases from the district court to the bankruptcy court There is no longer a requirement that the oversight board have ...


April 13, 2016, 12:44 am, 1626154

The Caesars examiner's report makes for interesting reading. Of particular interest for our readers might be its discussion of the role of the lawyers, namely those at Paul Weiss, who simultaneously represented the Caesars holding company, its operating subsidiary, and the holding company's private equity sponsor.  As the report ...


April 9, 2016, 12:44 pm, 1625198

Paul Krugman claims that "Many analysts concluded years ago" that the big banks were not at the heart of the financial crisis and that breaking them up would not protect us from future crises.  Incredibly, his claim is linked to an article by ... Paul Krugman.  Maybe ...


April 6, 2016, 6:44 pm, 1624511

The Center for Responsible Lending has produced a nice, new empirical paper reflecting on and refuting the notion that certain debt collection reforms restrict the flow of consumer credit. The analysis is careful and impressive, and the natural laboratory experiment they found is fun ...