Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Undercover Economist (Tim Harford)

May 27, 2016, 5:23 am, 1640328
‘Composers, novelists and film directors try to end on a high. Restaurants keen to manipulate their online reviews have found a similar trick’

May 20, 2016, 7:23 am, 1638352
‘However many refugees we decide to resettle, there’s no excuse for doing the process wastefully’

May 13, 2016, 7:23 am, 1636245
‘A “big data” approach to inflation is helping us understand the fundamental question of why recessions happen’

May 6, 2016, 7:23 am, 1633738
‘The truth is that there are no foolproof methods for knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em’

April 29, 2016, 7:23 am, 1631207
‘Though the idea of a basic income is far from mainstream, it has had astonishingly broad support’

April 22, 2016, 7:23 am, 1628997
‘The wounds of a large industrial closure run deep. The entire economic ecosystem of an area can collapse’

April 8, 2016, 7:23 am, 1624918
‘The most notorious example of this “compromise effect” is our tendency to plump for the second-cheapest bottle on the wine list’

April 1, 2016, 9:23 am, 1622980
‘“Naive realism” is the seductive sense that we’re seeing the world as it truly is, without bias or error’

March 24, 2016, 1:23 pm, 1620824
‘Freer trade has inflicted a more grievous toll than economists, myself included, had expected’

March 18, 2016, 7:23 am, 1619033
‘The wealthy do not simply wallow in bank vaults like Scrooge McDuck. They spend their money’