Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Undercover Economist (Tim Harford)

August 28, 2015, 9:23 am, 1535690
‘If savvy consumers can help predict a product’s success, might there not be consumers whose clammy embrace spells its death?’

August 21, 2015, 11:23 am, 1532284
‘Without a strong banking sector to lend money to businesses, it is very hard for a poor country to grow’

August 14, 2015, 7:23 am, 1528451
‘London’s excruciating price tag is not just a vulnerability but also a sign of success’

August 7, 2015, 7:23 am, 1523853
‘It costs something like a billion quid to turn a bottom-half Premier League club into one of the best teams in Europe’

July 31, 2015, 5:23 am, 1519225
‘Why does such a large policy push need to be based on a handful of clinical trials?’

July 17, 2015, 7:23 am, 1510908
‘If innovators make no money at all, they will end up creating for the love of creation rather than for any financial reward’

July 10, 2015, 7:23 am, 1506799
‘Careless nudges are no more welcome in public policy than at a domino-toppling event’

July 8, 2015, 11:23 am, 1505646
The rise was a shock but true to form: clever politics and dubious economics, says Tim Harford

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503151
‘Diamonds are costly because we desire them. But what if that isn’t true? What if they are desirable because they are costly?’

July 5, 2015, 1:23 am, 1503150
‘The lesson of all this is that the economy is complicated and textbook economic logic alone will get us only so far’