Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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Undercover Economist (Tim Harford)


July 25, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1305595
Added to the familiar gallery of corporate monsters are those making money from parasitic smartphone apps


July 24, 2014, 9:23 am, 1304665
This year’s piecemeal reform is next year’s loophole. Only radical restructuring has a chance of creating fair taxation


July 18, 2014, 11:23 am, 1303102
It may seem mind-bendingly obvious but we need to test and evaluate ideas


July 11, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1299860
State education in Britain consists not of families choosing the best schools but of good schools choosing the best families


July 4, 2014, 7:23 am, 1296835
Should we treat low volatility as a portent of disaster, or as a sign that the world economy is finally on the right track?


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295725
The human brain is a marvellous thing but it does not seem to have evolved to cope with high finance


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295727
Deflation seems unlikely – but unexpectedly low inflation is a serious enough problem that even a low risk is worth losing sleep over


July 2, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1295726
This type of property is smaller, cheaper and less likely to be ‘under-occupied’ and more likely to pass the ‘decent homes’ standard


June 27, 2014, 9:23 am, 1292242
The patient was seriously ill. Dr Balls advised antibiotics but Dr Osborne argued it was a virus


June 20, 2014, 9:23 am, 1289084
Pundits who make wagers may look grubby but at least they are accepting a cost for failure