The Problem - II
Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of
the housing tailspin.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
The Problem - I
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of
the problem we face.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topic 8/4/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +42,000
BLS: -131,000/+71,000
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topics 6/28/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +13,000
BLS: -125,000/+83,000
CBO: Take your pick.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10
James Hamilton summarizes the situation.
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Economics and …
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628664
Here's my Monday evening quarterbacking. They should have guaranteed Citigroup's liabilities (in other words, extending deposit protection to other types of creditors and to large depositors) rather than its assets. (Perhaps nobody had the authority, but Congress should give them that authority now in case the same thing ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628667
Everybody knows that, in the aggregate, trade increases welfare. We can quibble about how to aggregate welfare across individuals, but at least in a Kaldor-Hicks sense, trade increases welfare. In that aggregate welfare sense, trade is a free lunch, and that lunch is wasted if nobody eats it. ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628668
Damn, this gets so complicated when you try to do it rigorously. In
my earlier post, my mind had scrambled together 3 or 4 different models, thrown in some extra stuff to try to make the result realistic, and ended up with a high-cholesterol omelet. Now that ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628666
The bad news is that the headaches and fatigue you’ve been experiencing aren’t just stress. According to our tests, you have a serious illness, and if it’s not treated soon, you could be dead within a year or two.
The good news is that the treatment is 100% ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628665
Before the Treasury decided to start issuing TIPS, I was a strong advocate for inflation-adjusted bonds. At the time, I felt that people were overly concerned with inflation. (That was the mid-90’s, and I think subsequent experience bore out that opinion.) I thought that the government should ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628650
Why is it that so many economists assume that private agents are rational but policymakers are irrational?
Breaking with that rather silly custom,
Nick Rowe (hat tip:
Mark Thoma) applies the rational expectations concept to policymakers and reaches the conclusion that we will never be able to ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628651
A headline on Bloomberg:
Fed Loans Guided by Raters Grading Subprime Debt AAA
Oh, my God! You mean the Fed is actually relying on ratings provided by major ratings agencies? Can you imagine such a thing? And did you know there are homosexuals in Iran? ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628648
If you believe in a NAIRU, or anything remotely like a NAIRU or an accelerationist Phillips curve, the prognosis for prices is looking
increasingly ugly. For those who believe confidently in such a Phillips curve and accept historical estimates of the parameters, deflation is now a certainty, and ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628647
Yeah, it's not just "
good for you"
Here's how things stand: the stimulus bill is way too small, it's floundering in the Senate, and we stand possibly on the edge of a deflationary abyss.
Solution: find, say, the 5 most wavering Republican senators and offer ...
January 11, 2010, 6:44 pm, 628649
Following up on
my last post concerning
Nick Rowe's application of rational expectations to public policy: it occurs to me that the way to look for evidence of policy effectiveness is to find cases where policy was, in retrospect, irrational. In other words, look for cases ...
