Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Budget Blog
"real-time analysis and commentary on the federal budget”
A project of the Center for American Progress
2007 TNT 132-1 - News Stories (Copyright, 2007, Tax Analysts)
The Office of Management and Budget is also due to release its midsession review July 11
Stan Collender on Bush’s budget process complaint…
BUDGET BATTLES: Chutzpah, Y’All (07/10/2007) - sub req
[…]
In his weekly radio address this past Saturday, the president criticized Congress for not being on schedule with the FY08 appropriations. He also said that Congress was unlikely to send him any appropriations for the ...
Just released today…
The Ways and Means Committee today passed H.R. 3056, the Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007, to repeal the use of private debt collection companies to collect Federal income taxes, delay the application of an onerous three percent withholding requirement on businesses, and ...
OMB released updated budget projections yesterday. The 2007 deficit was revised down to $205 billion from a previously estimated $244 billion, but the deficit in 2008 is set to increase to over $250 billion.
A new column by Scott Lilly of the Center for American Progress…
Breakfast at the White House
Congressional leaders will start the month of August with a breakfast meeting with President Bush and his top advisors. The meeting is a response to a joint request by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ...
Statement of Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad…
“The Senate Budget Committee will hold a hearing next Thursday on the President’s nomination of Jim Nussle to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget. This hearing will provide Mr. Nussle with an opportunity to address Members ...
A new column from CAP senior fellow Scott Lilly…
The Case Against Nussle’s Confirmation
When the Senate returns from the August break next week they are expected to take up the confirmation of former Congressman Jim Nussle as Director of the Office of Management. Many students of American government argue ...
CAP Senior Fellow Ruy Teixeira on public opinion of the budget…
Public Opinion Snapshot: Which Side Are You On? The Battle of the Budget
Congress is in the middle of a battle over the budget. On one side are those who want the budget to include higher appropriations for programs ...
New column by CAP Senior Fellow Scott Lilly…
Engineering a Train Wreck
An old Yiddish folktale describes a young man who murders both of his parents and when brought to trial throws himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan. The story is intended to explain ...
From today’s Washington Post…
Bush Wants $50 Billion More for Iraq War - washingtonpost.com
President Bush plans to ask Congress next month for up to $50 billion in additional funding for the war in Iraq, a White House official said yesterday, a move that appears to reflect increasing administration confidence that it can ...