Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Greg Mankiw’s Blog

"Random Observations for Students of Economics”

July 24, 2016, 3:33 am, 1656543
Larry Ball has an important new monograph arguing, contra Bernanke, that during the recent financial crisis, the Fed could have saved Lehman Brothers but, unadvisedly, chose not to.  Here, James Stewart of the NY Times covers the Ball piece, and it includes this tidbit:

an internal Fed team ...

July 19, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1655140

July 12, 2016, 11:33 am, 1652981
Consider an economy in which average income is $50,000 but with much income inequality. To provide a social safety net, two possible policies are proposed.

July 3, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1650563

July 2, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1650410
I see you recently opened up a golf course in Scotland. I presume that part of your business plan is for some Americans to take vacations to play there. But this raises some thorny questions.

You complain constantly about American firms moving jobs overseas. But couldn't you have opened up your golf ...

July 1, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1650306

June 29, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1649538

June 27, 2016, 9:34 am, 1648772
A friend sends along this summary:

June 21, 2016, 9:34 am, 1647144

June 20, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1646995
In my  recent NY Times article, I explored several hypotheses to explain slow growth. One was based on work by Alberto Alesina and Silvia Ardagna suggesting that the standard Keynesian view of tax and spending multipliers is inconsistent with the international evidence. 

Paul Krugman says the Alesina-Ardagna work ...