Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


November Payroll Employment


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Greg Mankiw’s Blog

"Random Observations for Students of Economics”


February 3, 2012, 11:34 am, 948108
Good news today about employment.  The 243,000 increase in jobs is a very solid number.  The graph below shows how the prices at Intrade reacted when the news was released at 8:30 am.  President Obama's probability of being reelected rose by ...


January 31, 2012, 11:34 am, 947430

January 30, 2012, 3:34 pm, 947272
Yes, says CBO:

Differences in total compensation—the sum of wages and benefits—between federal and private-sector employees varied according to workers' education level.
Federal civilian employees with no more than a high school education averaged 36 ...


January 30, 2012, 1:34 pm, 947244
Robert Samuelson has the numbers:


January 27, 2012, 9:34 am, 946584
I don't know who this blogger is, but his or her first post is called "Mankiw is right. Buffett is wrong."  And he or she puts the argument well (although I may not be objective here).


January 25, 2012, 11:34 pm, 945952
The Harvard Pre-Collegiate Economics Challenge is a competition for high school students studying AP economics.   It is run by Harvard undergraduates and features one of my favorite economists as a guest speaker.  This year it will be held on Saturday, March 31, 2012 from 9 am to 5 pm.

If you are ...


January 25, 2012, 9:34 am, 945631
1. Last night President Obama continued his misleading claims about Warren Buffett's tax rates.  David Leonhardt recalls that I rebutted those claims several years ago. 

David usefully asks for a response to my rebuttal from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal-leaning research group in Washington. Chuck Marr, the ...


January 24, 2012, 11:34 am, 945164
Here is the memo that Larry Summers sent to President Obama when the 2009 stimulus package was being debated. It was originally confidential, but somehow it has recently been made public and is now going viral.

I make a brief cameo appearance on page 11: "Greg Mankiw ...


January 21, 2012, 7:34 pm, 944278

January 21, 2012, 11:34 am, 944215
I need some help from the growth empiricists out there.  If you aren't one of them, stop reading.  Continuing will be a waste of your time.

For researchers studying economic growth, one of the standard resources for cross-country data has been the Penn World Table.  My 1992 paper with ...