Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Greg Mankiw’s Blog

"Random Observations for Students of Economics”

July 29, 2014, 7:33 am, 1307124

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June 30, 2014, 7:33 am, 1293070
Sorry that I have been out of touch with regular blog readers.  I have moved to Nantucket for the summer, and the weather here has been too great to spend much time in front of a keyboard.  (The three best reasons to be a professor: June, July, and August.)

June 23, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1290238

June 21, 2014, 11:33 am, 1289502

June 21, 2014, 7:33 am, 1289462
The Affordable Care Act added "about six percentage points to the marginal tax rate faced, on average, by workers in the economy."  So estimates the University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan

Given that labor income was already taxed by income and payroll taxes, that figure indicates the return ...

June 13, 2014, 9:33 am, 1285881
Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank Research sends along the above graphic.  At face value, it indicates the labor market is almost back to normal. If so, this fact suggests that the Fed may soon need to ...

June 11, 2014, 9:33 am, 1284768