Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

April 19, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1457949
I will present a way to determine potential real GDP using a regression of past data. First take the official CBO potential and subtract it from real GDP. When the red line is above zero (0), real GDP is over potential. Normally the red line rises above potential before a ...

April 18, 2015, 4:04 am, 1457579
I think you want to read this excellent post by Jonathan Chait. That is all.

April 17, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1457313
Long time readers of Angry Bear will be familiar with the Northwest Plan for a Real Social Security Fix. It has been pushed here in a series of posts and in innumerable comments (mostly by Dale Coberly) since 2009 including this core post: NW Plan for a Real Social Security ...

April 17, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1457233

April 17, 2015, 4:04 am, 1456975
Tax day has come and gone and nothing extraordinary happened (at least nothing extraordinary enough to be reported by the Washington Post or the New York Times). This non news should be news, because the much hated Obamacare mandate has been applied. Some Refund checks (many of which have not ...

April 16, 2015, 6:04 am, 1456324
As any conservative can tell you, Obamacare is a job-killing “train wreck.” Not only is it a job killer, there is no way that it could possibly work. Except, of course, it does. When I last visited this issue, the percentage of adults without health insurance had fallen from its ...

April 15, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1456117

April 15, 2015, 4:04 am, 1455555
I think you might want to read this excellent post by Simon Wren-Lewis. That is all.

April 14, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1455246
This issue has been driving me crazy for a while, and I never see it written about. When responsible people talk about the national debt, they point to Debt Held by the Public: what the federal government owes to non-government entities — households, firms, and foreign entities. (Irresponsible people talk ...

April 14, 2015, 10:04 am, 1455070
by New Deal democrat Why you should be afraid: the next recession is likely to include wage deflation Beginning 3 years ago, I identified poor wage growth  as the shortfall in the economy that worries me the most. And it still worries me, even though there has been some modest ...