Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


July 31, 2015, 8:04 am, 1519297
by Joseph Joyce The Challenges of the Greek Crisis The Greek crisis has abated, but not ended. Representatives of the “troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund returned to Athens for talks with the Greek government about a new bailout. This pause allows ...


July 31, 2015, 8:04 am, 1519298


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518710
I have been working off and on, well mostly off because of ‘life’ and ‘laziness’, since 2010 on a project I modestly called the Social Security Defender. It is all built around a Google account and so has a Google+ page, a blog, an e-mail address and a Google Drive. ...


July 30, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1518709
This is an excellent interview of former Fed analyst Danielle Dimartino Booth ( Dallas Fed) by Erin Ade at Boom Bust. I fully agree with her analyst analysis. Listen closely to her analysis of the housing market. She points to one area where low interest rate policy backfired.  


July 30, 2015, 4:04 am, 1518355
Vox.com had a long, interesting interview with Senator Bernie Sanders covering a large number of political and economic issues. In this post, I want to focus on just one issue he raised: Whether rising incomes for Chinese workers have to come at the expense of U.S. workers. Here is what ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 am, 1517459
Quite a few blogging PPACA naysayers are out there advertising the 25 to 50% increases in premiums for healthcare plans under the PPACA. Charles Gaba@ACA Signups blog points out it is just an opportunity to “shop around” and the premium increases may not be big anyway in dollars and cents. ...


July 29, 2015, 12:04 am, 1517458
CEPR’s Dean Baker: Wage Growth Continues to be the Key to Social Security Solvency Dean Baker and colleague Mark Weisbrot have been making a steady case since their publication of the aptly named Social Security: the Phony Crisis back in 1999. In short Social Security does not face a structural ...


July 28, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1517247
Who is Jeremy Corbyn? Well it turns out that the British Labour Party is two weeks out from a leadership election after their shellacking in the last election. And the contest very much mirrors that of Sanders vs Clinton, with Corbyn representing Old Labour (Democratic Socialism) and the other candidates ...


July 28, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1517087


July 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1516090
by Joseph Joyce Global Liquidity and U.S. Monetary Policy The events in Greece and the Ukraine have only partially drawn attention away from the financial markets’ focus on changes in U.S. monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials seem to be split over when they will raise their Federal Funds rate target, ...