Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


September 1, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1537704
by Joseph Joyce Global Volatility, Domestic Markets Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the current disruption in the financial markets of emerging market nations was anticipated. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 revealed the precarious position of many of these nations, particularly those dependent on commodity exports. The combination of ...


September 1, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1537705


August 31, 2015, 10:04 am, 1536663
Brad DeLong Friday morning: I cannot help but note strong divergence between the near-consensus views of Fed Chair Janet [Yellen]‘s and Fed Vice-Chair Stan [Fischer]‘s still-academic colleagues and students that tightening now is grossly premature, financial markets’ agreement with the hippies as evidenced by the ten-year breakeven, commercial-banker and wingnut ...


August 28, 2015, 8:04 am, 1535620


August 27, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1535415
Recently a very old debate among macroeconomists has been reopened (this happens from time to time). Paul Romer decided to discuss a key conference held in 1978 (yes really). Some (including me) think that’s about when the profession took a wrong turn largely following Robert Lucas. But in the discussion ...


August 26, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1534713
In my last post I pointed out that over the last half century, every time the year-over-year change in Real Household Net Worth went negative (real household wealth decreased), a recession had either started, or was about to.  (One bare exception: a tiny decline in Q4 2011, which looks rather like ...


August 25, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1533864
I have a new post up that has implications for stock-market investment, so I decided to try posting it over at Seeking Alpha, where they’re paying me a few tens of dollars for the post (plus more based on page views — not much luck so far). The post argues ...


August 24, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1533483


August 21, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1532448
People who know more than I do are discussing the rational expectations revolution and the division of macroeconomics into hostile fresh-water and salt-water schools of thought. I am very favorably impressed by this post by Simon Wren-Lewis which you should probably just read. ). Wren-Lewis quotes Paul Romer. “Lucas and ...


August 21, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1532447
Noah smith has a question which I paraphrase as : Interest rates on corporate bonds are very low. The return on capital for business as a whole is quite high. Why isn’t investment very high ? My thoughts This is related to average v marginal. I think it is important ...