Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


August 26, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1667943


August 26, 2016, 10:04 am, 1667850
“The Original Underclass” I have written on upward mobility several times at AB. This article goes along similar lines of what I have been saying. If you are already upper class, the chances of you dropping down to the lowest level are slim to none. If you are in that ...


August 25, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1667682
Of course some MSM journalists are hard working professionals. The Washington Post’s David A. Fahrenthold has worked very hard trying to find evidence, any evidence, of Donald Trump giving his own money away. Farenthold and Rosalind S. Helderman have a genuinely wonderful examination of alleged quid pro quo in which ...


August 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1667646
US political journalism just receive the coup de grace and the Beutler did it. Brian Buetler wrote “Hillary Clinton’s Relationship With the Press Is Broken—and It Can’t Be Fixed.” This doesn’t sound very enthusiastic, but I think the article shows that the problem is much much worse than the title ...


August 25, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1667605
In what would be a stunning reversal on an issue central to his candidacy, Donald Trump floated a possible process to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in America in a town hall that aired Wednesday. “No citizenship,” Trump told Fox News’ Sean Hannity in an interview taped Tuesday afternoon in ...


August 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1667356
Which of these models would you trust to evaluate inflation? (quarterly data since 1957) Phillip’s curve… core inflation plotted against unemployment. (link) My model plotting core inflation against corporate profit rates minus a mix of short & long-term nominal rates… (link) Who in their right mind would still talk about ...


August 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1667277
The Phillip’s curve is obsolete. Inflation does not reliably depend on employment. So what other model could we depend on? This one showing core inflation plotted against an aggregate corporate profit rate minus a mix of nominal rates. (FRED data link) Mixed nominal rate = 0.56*Fed rate + 0.44*10-year treasury ...


August 23, 2016, 8:04 am, 1666799


August 22, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1666628
In the wake of Hillary Clinton’s recent fundraising along the East and West coasts, the Republican National Committee has released a new web ad claiming the Democratic presidential nominee is out of touch with “everyday Americans.” The 19-second video, titled “Hillary Clinton’s Liberal Elite Summer Tour,” begins with an image of an ...


August 22, 2016, 6:04 am, 1666409
by Mike Kimel Explaining Trump’s Appeal, Part 3 In a recent post, I showed that since 1950 a. foreign born population correlates to slower job creation b. it is becoming increasingly difficult for people to find a job in the US I want to try to tie both those facts, ...