Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

February 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1723035

February 23, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1722865
Last week Timothy  Taylor at Convertible Economist did a very good post on  gross vs net capital spending.
eclining-us-investment-gross-and-net. He showed that in recent years the more rapid growth of  high  tech  spending has had an unanticipated impact.  The new high tech equipment has a much shorter life span that ...

February 23, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1722793
CPAC had a gathering of Republican Governors today. As Jennifer Hayden (@Scout_Finch) on Twitter noted, the Brownback/Walker/etc. panel was called “How to ruin your state’s economy with one easy tax cut.” So naturally my thoughts shifted to the one way blowing up your state’s economy could be ameliorated: if some ...

February 23, 2017, 10:04 am, 1722622
In the last few months I have gotten accused of racism a few times at this blog. I don’t think I am misrepresenting my accusers by stating that their claim is based primarily because of my views on a) immigration and b) the differences between the economic performance of different ...

February 23, 2017, 2:04 am, 1722492
For nearly a half a century, from 1947 to 1996, real GDP and real Net Worth of Households and Non-profit Organizations (in 2009 dollars) both increased at a compound annual rate of a bit over 3.5%. GDP growth, in fact, was just a smidgen faster — 0.016% — than  growth ...

February 22, 2017, 8:04 am, 1722159
by New Deal democrat Wages and household income vs. housing: which leads which? Sometimes I look into a relationship that doesn’t quite pan out, but it’s still useful to flesh out the process. That’s the story of real wage growth vs. housing. In the last few months I ‘ve pointed ...

February 21, 2017, 10:04 am, 1721782

February 20, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1721524
From the Roosevelt Institute comes this graphic on the overall reality of macro policies: The Republicans’ underlying assumption—that corporations invest more and create more jobs only when they are relieved of burdensome tax rates—is false. American businesses already enjoy a historically low cost of capital, and they have more than ...

February 20, 2017, 6:04 am, 1721434
by Barkley Rosser  (originally published at Econospeak) Saint Janet Yellen: The Best Fed Chair Ever? OK, so the immediate reaction of many to this title might be to laugh, but I challenge anybody reading this to name another Fed Chair who was clearly better than she is.  I do not ...

February 19, 2017, 6:04 am, 1721280
by New Deal democrat The shallow industrial recession is fading in the rear view mirror A year ago the “shallow industrial recession” induced by the strong US$ and imploding oil patch was bottoming.  At that time I described the historical pattern: Typically new orders turn positive first (red, left scale ...