Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


October 18, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1353569
In the Solow Growth Model, productivity is a powerful factor for raising income per person in a country. So it is important to maintain productivity growth if a country would like to have economic growth. I have written recently that there are ways to discipline the market in order to ...


October 18, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1353497
And this is an honest question, one that I have been poking around in but maybe don’t have the chops to answer. Lets take three measures of Public Debt: One nominal. Public Debt as of the 16th was $17.899 trillion. And rising. Two as percentage of GDP. And BTW the ...


October 18, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1353421
Yesterday Credit Suisse released its Global Wealth Databook 2014 to go along with the Global Wealth Report issued Monday. Global wealth hit another new record of $263 trillion as of mid-2014, up 8.3% from mid-2013 (Report, p. 3). Rich people are doing well, but how about the middle class? One ...


October 17, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1353224
More than 22,000 Coloradans were informed in the past month that their health coverage will be canceled at the end of the year, state insurance authorities disclosed this week, a spike in cancellations already roiling the state’s fierce campaigns for the Senate and governor’s seat. Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, who’s running to ...


October 17, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1353140
I predict that the Supreme Court will grant the emergency request in the Texas voter-ID case, and reinstate the district court’s stay of enforcement until after the November election. Which, best as I can tell, makes me a minority of exactly one. I don’t have time to elaborate much, but ...


October 17, 2014, 10:04 am, 1352919
The CDC “As demonstrated in the PHEP funding chart above, CDC continues to work with reduced financial resources, which similarly affects state, local, and insular area public health departments. These and other funding decreases have resulted in more than 45,700 job losses at state and local health departments since 2008. ...


October 17, 2014, 6:04 am, 1352778


October 15, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1351956
The latest Marquette Law School poll shows Scott Walker with 47 percent of likely voters, and Mary Burke with 47 percent of likely voters. Despite the last Marquette poll showing Walker up five points, the new poll, along with the polling average, shows this is very much a race. – Paul Waldman, ...


October 15, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1351919
by Joseph Joyce  (re-posted from Capital Ebbs and Flows) International Debt and Financial Crises The latest issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook has a chapter on global imbalances that discusses the evolution of net foreign assets (also known as the net international investment position) in debtor and creditor nations. ...


October 15, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1351700
Dow Jones stock index continues downward. Why? The future will be disappointing. So these future disappointments are already being priced in. Why wait for the bad data? We know its coming. Europe is in trouble. China is slowing. Oil prices are going to low for many producers. Retail sales are ...