Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

September 21, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1338818
The Largest climate march in history is happening today.  Jan Galkowski responds to a Wall Street Journal editorial.   He requested that comments be written at his website in order to consolidate questions and answers. by Jan Galkowski “It’ll be okay: Trust me”, redux Professor Steven Koonin offers up another dollop of ...

September 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1338745
August brings us the annual Irish immigration data, so it’s time to look at what has happened in their statistical reporting “year” that ended in April 2014. While better than last year, it’s still not pretty. According to the Central Statistics Office, net emigration continued in 2013-14, with net emigration ...

September 20, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1338509
Update appended below. (Second indented quote format also corrected.) —- In the Comments thread to Dan Crawford’s post below titled “Kalamazoo County Michigan…People and Offices to Write to Protest the Stealing of a Home,” I wrote: Dan, you don’t understand. This is freedom, see. I mean, it’s not like it’s ...

September 20, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1338445
Stephanie Kelton offers the story of government on a macro level that is understandable: The full version of the debate including the Q&A session at the end is available on our YouTube channel.

September 20, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1338444
When someone says, “if we raise the minimum wage, there will be more unemployment.” That may be true, but their fear of unemployment is not wise. It is better to say, “if we raise the minimum wage, will net social benefits be increased?” When someone says, “if the Fed ...

September 19, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1338293
John Boehner says that unemployed Americans are pretty clearly malingerers, bums on welfare who have decided that they don’t feel like working: “This idea that has been born, maybe out of the economy over the last couple years, that you know, I really don’t have to work. I don’t really want ...

September 19, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1337997
Via the Guardian comes a few words on the drought and markets for, in this case, almonds.  But similar things could be said of other crops.  The ‘subsidized’ cost of getting water to these producers is not reflected in prices, nor is the ‘ownership’ of the water  looked at in a ...

September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337917
Now that the Fed has sent the message that nominal rates will stay at the ZLB for a considerable time after October, let’s revisit the concept of the Zombie firm. The ZLB Fed rate makes it more likely that zombie firms will continue to limp on… Zombie firms are not ...

September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337916
Via Alternet comes this disturbing story. Deborah Calley told WITI that she paid cash for her dream home in 2010. She had thought that it would make raising two children easier while she was recovering from the traumatic car accident. But that dream was shattered when she was notified that ...

September 19, 2014, 10:04 am, 1337915