January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Inflation forecasts in the Livingston survey of experts are systematically different from inflation and thus do not correspond to the hypothesis of rational expectations and a quadratic loss function. One striking feature of the forecast errors is that the averages over decades of the median over participants forecast ...
Just read Bryce Covert’s excellent post criticizing welfare reform. It is too good to excerpt.
I would like to ask a question of the readers for their comments.
Has aggressive monetary policy made labor less valuable?
The idea is that cheap money for so long to investors has made profits easier to obtain, and that labor was not valued and rewarded as a means to ...
I’m actually not happy with this discovery; the crucial point here should be that even ...
I’m actually not happy with this discovery; the crucial point here ...
Lifted from comments to Calculated Risks aside on cash for clunkers. Spencer says:
I get so tired of seeing people evaluate the cash of clunkers and ignoring the impact on auto inventories. During the cash for clunkers auto and light truck inventories fell from 2.7 months of sales to1.6 months of ...
During the late sixties, myself and a bunch of other older teenagers 18 years and older arrived at McAfees on Van Buren in Chicago, IL. Quite a few of us were drafted. I enlisted in the USMC at the age of 19 without knowing completely what my life was going ...
OXON HILL, Md. – New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie gave a rousing speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference today taking on President Obama while stressing his own conservative credentials.
Christie’s signature tough talking style was on full display when he took on Obama asking, “Mr. President, what ...
With the release of the Fed’s Open Market Committee Meeting minutes from 2008, it has been confirmed that the Fed was too concerned about inflation, and, to quote Marcus Nunes, “worse, the headline kind” leading into the 2008 crash. The Market Monatarists cite this as evidence that the Fed ...