Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

April 22, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1259213

Kevin Drum tells readers to always click the link. His latest post is well worth reading. I don’t have much to add (I wrote a comment over there).

April 22, 2014, 6:04 am, 1258698

April 22, 2014, 6:04 am, 1258697

by J Tzimeskes  

Are Markets Better Described as Robust than Efficient?

Something that I think all of us with private sector jobs experience in our day to day lives is just how incompetent a large number of private businesses are. These may be our customers, suppliers, or another division. Yet, somehow, ...

April 21, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1258529

Low inflation continues to be a concern in Europe and the US, especially in Europe. Central bankers project that inflation will rise as the economy gets closer and closer to full employment. Yet, what is behind low inflation?

I refer to the work of ...

April 21, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1258375

I posted a question to our readers…

How should monetary policy change if reducing inequality was seen as the most important priority?

An assessment of the comments…

The real issue of monetary policy’s effect on inequality its purpose to generate a “wealth effect” which will increase spending. A few things were said about ...

April 21, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1258292

by Joseph Joyce (is a Professor of Economics at Wellesley College and the Faculty Director of the Madeleine Korbel Albright Institute for Global Affairs and maintains his blog at Capital Ebbs and Flows)

China’s Place in the Global Economy

Last week’s announcement that China’s GDP grew at an annualized rate ...

April 21, 2014, 12:04 am, 1258092

I have been playing with the Livingston survey economic forecasts and, in particular, with the median forecast of CPI inflation over the following 6 and 12 months. The survey was conducted each June and December since June 1946. For some reason, the data are available in two files one ...

April 20, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1258030

Now all the criminals in their coats and their ties
Are free to drink martinis and watch the sun rise
While Rubin sits like Buddha in a ten-foot cell
An innocent man in a living hell
That’s the story of the Hurricane
But it ...

April 20, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1257986

Hostages to fortune

Recently, I wrote a note on expected inflation in the USA. One of the two sources of data I used was the Livingston survey of expert forecasters. I used the median forecasts of the CPI 6 and 12 months ahead from the start of the survey in ...

April 20, 2014, 10:04 am, 1257967

Too funny to miss, folks.