Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


July 26, 2016, 12:04 am, 1657068
Bernie’s speech was perfect.  Also perfect: Bill Clinton’s reaction.  He loved it. Things will be alright, folks.


July 25, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1656994
Paul Waldman has a lengthy post today at the Washington Post’s Plum Line blog titled “Despite what you’ve heard, Democrats aren’t in disarray. Their party is under attack from the outside.”   He argues that the Democratic Party itself isn’t that divided, and that the divisions really are between Democrats and ...


July 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1656861
This is genuinely amazing (h/t @jbarro) http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-
of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/ New York Observer is a weekly newspaper… . Since July 2006, the paper has been owned and published by the American real‑estate figure Jared Kushner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Observerqqq
I quote without comment It’s no secret that the DNC was recently subject to a major hack, ...


July 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1656860
Yesterday, I wrote about the connection between inflation and corporate profits. (link) I posted this graph. The graph shows how inflation drops net corporate profits rise. Net corporate profit rate = Corporate profits/GDP – nominal interest rate The trend line (bright red curving downward) implies an exponential decay of inflation. ...


July 25, 2016, 2:04 am, 1656684
In Doctor Strangelove, General Ripper explains to Captain Mandrake why Clemenceau’s dictum on war is now obsolete: He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left ...


July 25, 2016, 12:04 am, 1656665
Of course the big news is that Russian hackers (probably linked to the Russian government) hacked Democratic National Committee servers and leaked embarassing e-mails (and deliberately leaked social security numbers) via Wikileaks. This supports the hypothesis that Putin is trying to get Trump elected. It sounds like a fringe tinfoil ...


July 24, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1656650
Or so The Brookings Institute would like us to believe. What would cause Brookings to take such a stance especially since parts of the PPACA increased costs dramatically and premiums have increased dramatically? Coverage such as: mandated guaranteed issue regardless of health status; restrictions on the ability to charge different ...


July 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1656640
Is there a relationship between Inflation and Corporate Profits? I think so. But I do not know of anyone talking about the relationship, so I will. The point I want to make is that corporations control prices. They set prices. They are not just price-takers. Corporations will change prices with ...


July 23, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1656515
“You don’t own patriotism, you don’t own Christianity. You sure as hell don’t own respect for military, police and firefighters.” John Stewart If you have not seen John Stewart taking over for Stephen Colbert on The Late Show, take the 10 or so minutes necessary to listen to Stewart’s remarks ...


July 23, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1656471
Kaine’s emails show he was engaged on everything from traffic flows on southbound I-95 to explanations on why he picked one state lawmaker over another to sponsor income tax legislation. “Because I know him much better,” the governor wrote. – Kaine email trove shows media-savvy micromanager, Darren Samuelsohn, Politico, today ...