Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

October 6, 2015, 8:04 am, 1553775

October 4, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1553046
One hears that the Federal Reserve would like to normalize the Fed rate. What does that mean? How can we conceptualize that? Well, there are many ways to conceptualize it, but here is a simple way using measures of the growth of nominal GDP (NGDP). In normalization, the Fed rate ...

October 3, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1552890
I think it is best to just click and read this. In a study published this year in Nature Neuroscience, several co-authors and I found that family income is significantly correlated with children’s brain size — specifically, the surface area of the cerebral cortex, which is the outer layer of ...

October 2, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1552663
Janet Yellen gave a speach which has received a lot of attention and not just because she is one of the most powerful people in the world. I agree with Lorcan Roche Kelly that the best parts are footnotes 28 and 26. I got into a twitter debate with Andy ...

October 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1552625
Modern Monetary Theory has been revolutionary in economics, and its influence is — beneficially — ever-more pervasive. It has opened the eyes of a generation to a clear-eyed, accounting-based methodology that trumps dimensionless theory, and has brought a deep, nuts-and-bolts understanding of money, debt, and financial institutions to a discipline ...

October 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1552624

October 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1552558
If you do not know, Prof Reich’s film is currently up on youtube.  I just watched it.  For most readers it is nothing new.  But for the masses this is a great film.  Plus, I did not know that he literally went over on the same boat as Bill Clinton ...

October 2, 2015, 12:04 am, 1552198
There is a post by Dietz Vollrath, Labor’s Share, Profits, and the Productivity Slowdown. D. Vollrath has some math there for how a decline in labor share along with a rise in aggregate mark-ups can show that productivity growth is slowing. Mark-ups are the price over marginal cost. Normally in perfect ...

October 1, 2015, 8:04 am, 1551712
“Pundits are regularly outpredicted by people you’ve never heard of. Here’s how to change that.” is a very interesting article at the monkey cage by Sam Winter-Levy and Jacob Trefethen. (h/t @MarkThoma) They note a study of people you’ve never heard of vs intelligence analysts (not pundits) and write accountability. ...

September 29, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1550844