September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”
Paul Krugman is honest in his search to explain secular stagnation, but he is missing a crucial piece to the puzzle. And thus he comes to an incomplete conclusion. But then we see that Noah Smith is bringing the missing piece to the table.
The missing piece to the ...
by Dale Coberly
2013 Trustees Report:
Social Security is Running Out
of Worthless IOU’s!
9.6 Trillion Dollar Unfunded Deficit!
I did not take a hard look at the 2013 Trustees Report when it came out last Spring because I thought I knew pretty much what it would say, and what it ...
Sadly, not in the real world. But in the econoblogosphere. Much of that is arguably thanks to the newly launched Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
Traveling and family time, so I can’t do a big writeup, so just a few somewhat randomly chosen links:
Brad Plumer: Is inequality bad for ...
A note at Baseline Scenario seemed ironic at a glance :
Preventing Regulatory Capture is finally on sale (which means you can’t download it for free from Tobin anymore) ( Preventing Regulatory Capture.)
Economic Populism Is a Dead-End for Democrats recently appeared in The Wall Street Journal, appropriately enough, and comes from Third Way. A commenter asked why it was important to list who was on the trustee list, which included some Dems and others. I won’t go through the laundry list on ...
I have a student in Argentina that sent me a message today. He says that it has become extremely difficult to take money out of the banks, even $100 USD. It is considered capital flight with legal difficulties.
He says that $2 billion USD are leaving Argentina daily.
The Argentine peso has ...
Richard Wolff is on fire here. He is explaining the cooperative model and why it will save the US. I have never seen a better video on the subject. This video should be required listening for all economists. The ideas presented should be reflected upon ...
It’s critical to understand that Third Way presents itself as “centrist” and a think tank:
Via Huffington Post Bill Black summarizes the profiles of the trustees:
Twenty of the twenty-nine trustees come from finance (counting the lawyer whose specialty ...
Hilary W. Hoynes, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, Douglas Almond made a genuinely important contribution to the debate on the effects of social welfare programs in this working paper/revised manuscript
“Long Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net”
They took advantage of a natural experiment to estimate the long run effects ...