Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304065

Guest post by Bruce Carman.

He first comments on an article from Jeremy Grantham who says that a coming bubble is likely.

“. . . There are massive reserves of labor in the official unemployment plus room for perhaps a 2% increase in labor participation rates as ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304066

The great Yitzhak Rabin has been long forgotten, assassinated by the Israeli ultranationalist, Yigal Amir–a forerunner of the cruel Zionist Netanyahu and the she-devil, Ayled Shaked. But the Zionist hard right would not have risen to power if it had not help from the West. Among those who blindly walk ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304067

Traffic jam in Beijing, China.

Simon Wren-Lewis writes about the difference between how the neofiscalists and market monetarists view the solution to the world’s economic woes. Basically, neofiscalists are ready to use whatever is necessary. Market monetarists limit themselves ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304068

Corporate “inversions” are back in the news again, as multinational corporations try every “creative” way they can to get out of paying their fair share of taxes for being located in the United States. With inversions, the idea is to pretend to be a foreign company even though it ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304064

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304063

Via Economist’s View ‘California’s Job Growth Defies Predictions after Tax Increases’:

This article, by David Cay Johnston, is getting a surprising number of retweets:

State’s job growth defies predictions after tax increases, by David Cay Johnston, The Bee: Dire predictions about jobs being destroyed spread across California in 2012 as ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304060

David Cay Johnston emailed me that there were errors in Forbes contributor Tim Worstall’s recent criticisms of the linked article. Indeed there are, but the biggest one (or at least the funniest one) isn’t the one Johnston pointed me to.

Worstall writes that AbbVie’s pending inversion will not, ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304061

John Bluedorn and Shengzu Wang wrote a post on the IMF blog called, Euro Area: An Unbalanced Rebalancing? They talk about the unbalanced Current Account trade balances within Europe where creditor nations continue with large surpluses, even though debtor nations are moving toward surpluses themselves. They give reasons of ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304062

I read an article by Gavyn Davies, Another False Alarm on US Inflation?. He states that projections of rising inflation are not warranted due to lack of wage-growth pressures. I agree with him, but I want to go one step further and say that the uptick in inflation is ...

July 23, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1304059

The Economist online magazine has an article called, Jobs are not Enough, where they show a poor understanding of effective demand.

“Economic growth over the business cycle is driven mostly by swings in demand, and in recent years demand has been held back: households have been repaying their ...