Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

November 28, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1583094
An alterative title might be my usual comment reminding Krugman’s readers of the history of “hysterisis”. Krugman wrote a very clear even better than usual post summarizing how his views on macroeconomics have changed since 2008. It is best to click the link, but the one sentence summary is that ...

November 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1582779

November 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1582778
by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow   One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping ...

November 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1582509
by Joseph Joyce   Dilemmas, Trilemmas and Difficult Choices In 2013 HĂ©lène Rey of the London Business School presented a paper at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual policy symposium. Her address dealt with the policy choices available to a central bank in an open economy, which she ...

November 26, 2015, 10:04 am, 1582508

November 24, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1581451
In a report titled “A Deadly Feast: What you are not told about your Thanksgiving turkey,” an advocacy group called Direct Action Everywhere, known as “DxE,” alleged that Diestel Turkey Ranch operated one “picture perfect” farm with about 400 animals in Sonora, Calif. This farm, the group said, was certified “5+” in an animal-welfare system adopted by ...

November 24, 2015, 6:04 am, 1581164

November 23, 2015, 12:04 am, 1580450
The following graph shows a pattern of productivity growth through a business cycle. The graph plots my UT index against Year over Year % change in productivity for the past 41 years. (Link to FRED data for graph, 1974 to present) The UT index is a measurement of effective demand. It ...

November 22, 2015, 12:04 am, 1580220
I received this *.pdf and an invitation to read it from my colleague and sometimes co-author Alessandra Pelloni. I had a lot of thoughts which I post here as they can’t do any harm. Two comments before the jump and 5 after the jump. I think it will be hard ...

November 20, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1579756