Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


May 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1640546
Clinton-Becerra 2016 Back then and even now it was and is ‘Xavier Who?’ But equally nobody thought Trump would even be running, still less making his campaign largely center on the Yuuuge Wall. And a lot of progressives are little leery of Julian Castro based on his mixed record as ...


May 27, 2016, 8:04 am, 1640350


May 26, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1640235
I got hit while parking today. Driver in front of me, parked with no lights or flashers, backed her van up into my car because she wasn’t actually parking, just dropping one of her kids off at school. For a moment, I’m all, like, WTF? She immediately gets out of ...


May 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1639739
Clinton’s aides say they have settled on the big story they want to tell about Trump: He is a business fraud who has cheated working people for his own gain, and his ideas, temperament and moves to marginalize people by race, gender and creed make him simply unacceptable as commander ...


May 25, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639540
Aristotle did. As Philip Kreager reminded me: Historians of economics have for some time treated his [Aristotle's] writings as formative, even though relevant passages in the Politics and Ethics amount to only a few pages. Wait. There’s more: In the Politics, however, population is a recurring topic, extensively discussed and ...


May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639496
It is sometimes argued that Conservatives and Republicans are anti science. There is often a quest for Ballance (or a so’s your mother reply from conservatives). I recall reading about liberal anti vaxxers (sorry I don’t recall actual URLs). Chris Mooney noted that there is no detectable association of vaccine ...


May 24, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1639497
No wait don’t go bear with me. The irritating messages have headers such as 3399949424 @EricTrump: Really p 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump and 3399940424 @realDonaldTrump So how do Eric and Donald Trump (who appear to be so poor that they are sharing a cell phone) know that an Italian resident TIM customer ...


May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639276


May 24, 2016, 8:04 am, 1639275
Yves Smith at NC: The SEC showed its true colors yet again at a panel at Stanford Law School at the end of March, although not as dramatically as last year. In last spring’s SEC panel at Stanford, the then head of examinations, Andrew Bowden, made such fawning remarks about ...


May 23, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1639173
John Graunt’s Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality (1662) is acknowledged as the inaugural text of “political arithmetick.” Graunt is ranked along with William Petty, Charles Davenant and Gregory King as a major pioneer of “the art of reasoning by figures, upon things relating to government.” In ...