Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


January 20, 2017, 2:04 am, 1712112
Dave Moss: What’s your name?  Blake: Fuck you. That’s my name. You know why, mister? ‘Cause you drove a Hyundai to get here tonight. I drove an $80,000 BMW. THAT’s my name. Long before Alec Baldwin did his Saturday Night Live impression of Donald J. Trump, Trump appropriated Baldwin’s sadistic ...


January 19, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1711947
This continues joint research with Marco Fioramanti. Our aim is to understand something about European natural rates of unemployment and whether the European Commissions estimated levels which they call NAWRU (for non accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment) are useful approximations. Here is a brief summary of work to date ...


January 18, 2017, 8:04 am, 1711469
I was looking for information on how cultures affect growth and stumbled on this 12.5 year old article in The Economist: Diversity and development might seem to sit oddly together. But they are intimately linked, and the report seeks to show that they are not related in the way many ...


January 17, 2017, 10:04 am, 1711146


January 17, 2017, 6:04 am, 1711062
This email just arrived from the Long Beach Unified School District (LBUSD), where my son is currently enrolled in one of the elementary schools: Long Beach Unified is conducting a survey of all students, staff and parents on the culture and climate of our schools. The surveys, all of which ...


January 16, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1711002
(Dan here…NDd takes a shot at evaluating the President Obama legacy.) by New Deal democrat Barack Obama: a noble failure Let me preface this essay by saying that I voted for Barack Obama twice, in both 2008 and 2012. In fact in 2008 I supported him in the primary against ...


January 15, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1710746
In Colorado, on Saturday, Republican Rep. Mike Coffman held an event for his constituents at a a public library in Aurora, Colorado. At least 150 constituents showed up, most of them hoping to ask Coffman about his recent vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act and his plans for a ...


January 15, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1710740
In my last post, I used World Bank data to look at the effect of net migration on economic growth. Net migration is defined by the World Bank as the number of immigrants (coming into a country) less the number of emigrants (leaving the country). I showed that net migration ...


January 15, 2017, 6:04 am, 1710660
Originally published at Econospeak by Peter Dorman Minimum Wages and Productivity I had a chuckle reading a report in today’s New York Times that describes a pair of papers on the minimum wage presented at the recently-concluded economics meetings in Chicago, especially the first, an experimental study by John Horton ...


January 14, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1710625
By Noni Mausa Wealth Inequality and Sentimental Credit I go to the store and buy a loaf of bread. But I haven’t actually harvested a loaf of bread (unless I am a shoplifter.) I have, instead, used a tiny scrap of credit to mobilize a farmer, a baker, a truck ...