Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


March 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1731469
by Peter Dorman (originally published at Econospeak) Fifty Shades of Yellow? Post-Truth Then and Now Simon Wren-Lewis can’t take it anymore. I’ve just read his fulminations on the blatant dishonesty of right wing media outlets in the US and the UK, untethered to any residual professional attachment to standards of ...


March 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1731432


March 24, 2017, 8:04 am, 1731431
by New Deal democrat What’s behind stalled nonsupervisory wage growth? Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers nominally has been stuck in the +2.3% to +2.5% range (or worse) for three years.  Why? Over the weekend I was cleaning out some old graphs, and came across this one from the Atlanta Fed, ...


March 24, 2017, 6:04 am, 1731414
Via Tyler Cowen, here is a piece by David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, Gary P. Pisano and Pian Shu. Cowen quoted the most important part, so let me follow his lead: The central finding of our regression analysis is that firms whose industries were exposed to a greater surge ...


March 23, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1731330
“House leaders postponed a vote Thursday on their plan to overhaul the nation’s health-care system, casting doubt on whether President Trump and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) can deliver on one of the GOP’s central promises to the voters who placed Republicans in power. Lawmakers and White House officials ...


March 23, 2017, 12:04 am, 1731033
Here’s a graph showing the number of attorneys as a share of the US population: The increase seems pretty inexorable starting around 1970, doesn’t it? For grins and giggles, here’s snide graph on which I will make no comment: If you’re wondering where the lawyers live, a quick google search ...


March 21, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1730617
by New Deal democrat Housing, production, and JOLTS all good news We’ve had a good run of economic news this week. First, in the leading housing sector, both of the most important datapoints made new highs.  Single family permits, which are just as leading as permits overall, but much less ...


March 21, 2017, 10:04 am, 1730434
Via Economists View (some of the comments are worth review as Deirdre McCloskey comments).  Also see below Peter Dorman’s   Review of Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality by James Kwak at Econospeak. Adam M. Finkel at RegBlog: It Takes “Alternative Math” to Claim That Redistribution Is Futile: The unequal distribution ...


March 21, 2017, 8:04 am, 1730392


March 20, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1730306
In 2026, an estimated 52 million would be uninsured in the US, a dramatic reversal from the 2016 uninsured count of 28/29 million. Pretty much, the Republicans will put healthcare back to the way it was pre-2014 if Paul Ryan’s bill is passed by Congress and Donald signs the bill ...