Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

July 31, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1309054

On a day that news comes out about wage growth perking up, the stock markets fall. (link to Dean Baker’s post) At the moment, the Dow is down 1.18% and the Nasdaq is down 1.81% for the day. The Dow has fallen ...

July 31, 2014, 10:04 am, 1308869

This is a temporary post that was not deleted. Please delete this manually. (c56a6282-4e7d-4cdf-8f85-f8cb37ac85f7 – 3bfe001a-32de-4114-a6b4-4005b770f6d7)

July 31, 2014, 8:04 am, 1308795

This posts refers to an article written by Gary Burtless, Unemployment and the “Skills Mismatch” Story: Overblown and Unpersuasive.

Mr. Burtless says that businesses are complaining about a skills shortage in an environment of lots of job openings. What kind of model might describe this situation? I have one… (link ...

July 30, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1308359

Just yesterday I posted about how weak real wages in Japan spells trouble for Abenomics. (link) Today we see by way of Stanley White and Leika Kihara at Reuters that output in Japan might be showing recession.

“Output is clearly weakening, enough to make you even ...

July 30, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1308358

Okay, yeah, I’m at again.  Sorry about the off-topic intrusion, but ….

Anyone in the Houston area who might be interested?

July 30, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1308275

Janet Yellen said today that there is still considerable slack in the economy in terms of labor and capital. So there is less pressure to tighten monetary policy earlier.

Just for the record, from my own research there is little spare capacity left… Here is my graph… Warning! The potential GDP ...

July 30, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1308190

Years of >5% Growth:

Pre-Reagan? 15

Post-Reagan? 5

Post-80s-recession-recovery? 2

Cross-posted at Asymptosis

July 30, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1308189

One economic variable that I track is the percentage of capital income used for consumption. It is not an exact number but an estimate in order to see trends over time. With the new revisions to GDP out today, I will update this variable.

I have previously said that consumption by ...

July 30, 2014, 10:04 am, 1308023

by Joseph Joyce

The BRICS and the Bretton Woods Twins

The World Cup was not the only event of global significance to take place in Brazil this summer. The leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa met in the city of Fortaleza and announced the formation of two new ...

July 30, 2014, 2:04 am, 1307803

The 2014 Medicare Trustees Report has just been released, and it shows that the program is on noticeably sounder financial footing than it was just a year ago. One of the biggest signs of this is that the projected depletion date of the Hospital Insurance (Part A) Trust Fund ...