Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

May 1, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1631932
In 2014, Joseph Hall explained why this could be an issue. “The US Department of Justice is seeking to drastically expand its abilities to search computers remotely through an obscure change in the rules of criminal procedure. This would have the effect of making it easier for law enforcement to ...

May 1, 2016, 12:04 am, 1631690
Thing of beauty. Not everything worked but I haven’t seen anything so devastating since Colbert in 2006 Stephen Colbert Roasts Bush at 2006 White House Correspondents Dinner Open thread for all things 2016 related.

April 30, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1631678
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has just pointed to The unfairness of housing purchases through time.     New Deal democrat and Barkley Rosser (at Econospeak) have pointed to problems with rental prices.  NDd continues with this post, also pointing to Bill McBride at Calculated Risk… by New Deal democrat Rents are ...

April 29, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1631310
I’m not a fan of Organizing for Action.  I think they’ve squandered a chance to be effective, and judging from the emails I’ve received from them they’ve focused mainly on things I don’t care about or don’t support.  In short, it’s been much more a centrist/center-left organization than a truly ...

April 29, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1631309
This too really matters. Disgusting and outrageous.

April 29, 2016, 10:04 am, 1631268
by New Deal democrat Would the real “real median household income” please stand up? Real median household income is among the most important measures of economic well-being.  So why do three surveys compiled from 3 different sources give 3 very different results? Let me point out initially what real median ...

April 28, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1630894
There are limits to the analogy between Clinton’s 2008 primary contest with Obama and Sanders’s primary contest now with her.  Clinton doesn’t get that.  But she needs to figure it out because the differences matter. – There are limits to the analogy between Clinton’s 2008 primary contest with Obama and ...

April 28, 2016, 8:04 am, 1630757
This post is related to the debate about fiscal policy and medium run growth which has become entangled with the Sanders or Clinton debate (which I will attempt to avoid). Some extremely Keynesian economists (DeLong, Pro Growth Liberal,, Menzie Chin, Paul Krugman, and (warning pdf) C and D Romer have ...

April 27, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1630591
When I wrote this post today I wasn’t aware of this piece by Jonathan Cohn (a longtime favorite of mine, dating to his time at The New Republic).  It was published early this morning but I just learned of it (h/t Paul Waldman).  But it makes the same key point that ...

April 27, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1630510
We got to the end in June, and I did not put down conditions. I didn’t say, ‘you know what, if Senator Obama does X, Y, and Z, maybe I’ll support him.’ I said, ‘I’m supporting Senator Obama, because no matter what our differences might be, they pale in comparison ...