Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794283
by Joseph Joyce Venezuela and the Next Debt Crisis The markets for the bonds of emerging markets have been rattled by developments in Venezuela. On November 13,Standard & Poor’s declared Venezuela to be in default after that country missed interest payments of $200 million on two government bonds. Venezuelan President ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794284
(Dan here…Lifted from Robert’s StochasticThoughts) Do Android Phones Dream of Electoral Sheeple in 1984 Signs of the times A photo tweeted by the Russian Ministry of Defense Tuesday as “irrefutable” proof that the United States has allied with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria turned out to be from ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794285
Figure 1

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794286
Ernie Tedeschi writes: As a followup to my post earlier this morning, I’ve created a table below detailing how each policy in the TCJA affects the number of parental families in 2027 seeing a tax hike. Using refined policy parameters that have been added to the OSPC model since yesterday, I ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794282
Via Washington Post, Jared Bernstein writes: The Republican tax cut plan has been justly criticized for worsening both income inequality and the national debt, but the plan has another big problem: It’s likely to lead to more outsourcing of U.S. jobs and a larger trade deficit. That’s obviously a negative ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794281

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794278
This article looks at the future of colleges and universities: There are over 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States, but Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen says that half are bound for bankruptcy in the next few decades. Christensen is known for coining the theory of disruptive innovation ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794279
Another article from Jared Bernstein Washington Post: There’s an interesting sort of argument going on between Stansbury/Summers (SS) and Mishel/Bivens (MB). My name has been invoked as well, so I’ll weigh in. It’s a “sort-of” argument because there’s less disagreement than first appears. It all revolves around this chart, which plots to ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794280
Lifted from comments reader Denis Drew: Donald Trump’s Response to Disaster Aid for California: Nothing Kevin DrumNov. 20, 2017
nothing/ “A few weeks ago, California requested $7.4 billion in disaster aid following the massive series of wildfires in the northern part of the state that killed 43 people and destroyed ...

November 22, 2017, 12:44 pm, 1794277
Two Powerful Women Losing Power That would be respective Angela Merkel and Janet Yellen, both reported to have lost a lot of power in today’s Washington Post.  During at least the last year, if not the last four, they have been probably the two most powerful women on the planet. ...