Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


February 11, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1607723
I woke up today to see oil below $27 a barrel, the US 10-year at 1.6% and the Dow down to 15,600. How quickly the economy is faltering. It is a crazy moment. Oil below $29 a barrel creates Geo-political tensions that can create attacks of aggression. Other countries have ...


February 11, 2016, 8:04 am, 1607575
Kevin Drum wrote “Here’s Why Bernie Sanders Doesn’t Say Much About Welfare Reform” He presents a graph of total social welfare spending in the USA divided by the number of people in households under 150% of the poverty line. He concludes “There are two obvious takeaways from this. First, overall ...


February 11, 2016, 12:04 am, 1607455
“You will not find that I ever changed a view or a vote because of any donation that I ever received.” If you have not seen it, there is a youtube cut of a Bill Moyers show in which Senator Warren explains just how dramatically Hillary Clinton changed her ...


February 10, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1607410
Socialism has always appealed to the young, the cure for which isn’t age but responsibility. This usually comes in the form of taxes and children, both of which involve working and sacrificing for the benefit of others, the extent of which forms the axis upon which all politics turns. That ...


February 10, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1607331
Looking at the past six months, Sears was outperforming Wal-Mart until mid-December. (Graphic via CNN)


February 10, 2016, 8:04 am, 1607161


February 9, 2016, 8:04 am, 1606722


February 7, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1606189
I don’t think Chris Christie makes it out of New Hampshire. But he may have put ‘paid’ to Rubio and indirectly punched tickets for his rivals Bush and Kasich. Because Lord knows that Trump didn’t do himself any favors on eminent domain in the Live Free or Die State nor ...


February 5, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1605884
A progressive is someone who makes progress. That’s what I intend to do. – Hillary Clinton, during last night’s debate. Clinton also thinks a “conservative” is someone who conserves. Which, she says, also is what she intends to do. First, though, she intends to redefine the entire Oxford English Dictionary.  Progressive, ...


February 5, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1605806
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. I have been firmly in the conventional wisdom camp that Bernie would never be the ultimate candidate and so as much as I always wanted to “Feel the Bern” and more or less identify ...