Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”


September 30, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1679857
Larry Summers wrote a post yesterday about the hollowing out of the middle class and how that has lowered consumption and led to secular stagnation. He says that this effect must be taken into account for policy. Well I sit here after 4 years of building models of Effective Demand ...


September 30, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1679858
Any American under the age of 50 has no memory of living with a liberal Supreme Court. That could change soon. Were a Democratic appointee to fill the current opening, laws could change on voting rights, corporate power, campaign finance, criminal justice and many other issues. “For the first time ...


September 29, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1679696
I posted this graph yesterday which has 234 data points from 1954 to 2016… The graph implies that as profit rates come easier over the nominal cost of money the percentage of gross private investment to GDP tends downward. I tweeted this graph to Miles Kimball who is in favor ...


September 29, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1679657
Coming soon: President Barack Obama, who’s expected to campaign [in Florida] at least twice before Election Day. First Lady Michelle Obama — more popular than her husband — will likely visit Florida as well, in addition to the ad she cut for Clinton that’s currently airing on Florida radio. “Hillary Clinton’s ...


September 28, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1679385
Asked by Holt what he would do to prevent cyberattacks, Trump replied: “As far as the cyber . . . we should be better than anybody else, and perhaps we’re not. I don’t think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the DNC [Democratic National Committee]. She’s saying Russia, Russia, Russia. ...


September 28, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1679239
He was the very best–a personal hero of mine.


September 28, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1679238
Authored by Mike Kimel I straddle a couple of economic worlds.  In my day job, I run the Pricing and Market Analytics group for a foreign manufacturing company.  But I also retain at least an ear to the ground in a small business my wife and I started about seven ...


September 28, 2016, 10:04 am, 1679195


September 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1678965
Stan Fischer: “I think we’d be better off if there was a price for using money, or for not investing, in terms of monetary returns” — Matthew B (@boes_) September 27, 2016 Data link… Red circle is 2nd quarter 2016.


September 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1678964
Nick Confessore Reporter 9:20 PM ET Just to pull back for a second here, you can see a part of Clinton’s strategy. She is not campaigning against him as a crazy man. She is campaigning against him as a traditional and, in her argument, flawed conservative Republican. – First Clinton ...