Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

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Angry Bear

"Slightly left of center comments on news, politics, and economics from an economist.”

April 23, 2017, 12:04 am, 1740137
I am generally very very impressed by Paul Waldman at the Plum line blog (for one thing I admire the lack of Ego he demonstrates by writing for a blog subtitled “Greg Sargent’s take from a liberal perspective). Waldman is reliably brilliant (so is Sargent). Now finally I find something ...

April 22, 2017, 8:04 am, 1740080
by Kenneth Thomas Tax Justice Network Taxcast, March 2017: Brexit and Tax Havens; Losses to Tax Avoidance Will Brexit harm the City of London’s tax haven? With weak regulation, money laundering, and satellites like BVI, Cayman Islands, and Jersey, everyone knows it’s already a tax haven. The UK is threatening ...

April 21, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1740010
Jeff Sessions said “I really am amazed that a judge sitting on an island in the Pacific can issue an order that stops the President of the United States from what appears to be clearly his statutory and constitutional power,” There has been considerable discussion of the phrase “and island ...

April 21, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1739968
I recently saw a rather alarming poster advertizing a blood drive The title is “donate bllod and follow your artistic inclinations” which, given the image, I interpreted as “donate blood and faint, so that you are inclined head down just like the recently crucified Christ. You will be resurrected too ...

April 21, 2017, 10:04 am, 1739834
by New Deal democrat Real wages and spending: I don’t think consumers will roll over that easily This is the second part of a post about “hard data” and consumer spending. (Dan here…First part here) Yesterday I noted that self-reported consumer spending, as measured by Gallup, has been running 10% ...

April 21, 2017, 8:04 am, 1739785

April 21, 2017, 8:04 am, 1739786
by Kenneth Thomas How wrong is IBD on California? Let us count the ways Investor’s Business Daily has a hit piece out on California, as you can tell from the headline, “Taxifornia does it again.” Here’s the first paragraph of the editorial*, to give you a good flavor of it: ...

April 20, 2017, 8:04 am, 1739418
by New Deal democrat The effect: retailers say they’re not selling, but consumers report they are buying This was originally one post but I think it works better divided into two parts. One of the issues I keep reading about recently is the (alleged) divergence between “soft” and “hard” ...

April 20, 2017, 8:04 am, 1739417
by  Barkley Rosser Turkey And The Trend To Authoritarianism The big surprise in the Turkish referendum to make Turkey a presidential system was not that Erdogan’s side won, but that it was close enough that opponents are charging fraud based on ballots not being counted properly.  It may in fact ...

April 19, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1739283
by Joseph Joyce Crises and Coordination Policy coordination often receives the same type of response as St. Augustine gave chastity: “Lord, grant me chastity and continence, but not yet.” A new volume from the IMF, edited by Atish R. Ghosh and Mahvash S. Qureshi, includes the papers from a 2015 ...