Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Intangible Economy

"Insights and information on the I-Cubed (Information, Innovation, Intangible) Economy”

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September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675155

After a week of Inauguration activities, houseguests and software upgrades - the Intangible Economy is back to blogging.

It has been an exciting week in Washington - with more surely to come on the policy and political front. An indication of how exciting is already evident in the debate over ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675156

According to an AP story on, Circuit City has "reached an agreement with liquidators on Friday to sell the merchandise in its 567 U.S. stores after failing to line up a buyer or a refinancing deal." As I noted before, ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675157

As I mentioned in Wednesday's posting, the Center for American Progress held an event on Monday on Spurring Innovation to Lift the Economy (also see the video of the roundtable panel discussion). Like the patent reform discussion described on Weds, ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675158

The latest issue of BEA's Survey of Current Business contains an article Toward Better Measurement of Innovation and Intangibles:

While all countries account for investment in tangible assets in their gross domestic product (GDP) ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675154

Joff Wild at the IAM Magazine blog passes along this important tidbit:

Comments have been invited on two draft documents with a view to making the valuation of intangibles more transparent and consistent. Issued by the International Valuation Standards Council, Revised Guidance Note no 4, entitled Valuation ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675153

A slight piece of good news this morning. The Conference Boards' Leading Indicator Index -- designed to forecast future economic activity -- rose in December for the first time in a number of months. This is somewhat of a surprise. The not-surprising news is that the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675150

One other follow on to the earlier posting on the Center for American Progress's report on innovation: their look at British Innovation Policy. This paper, by Will Straw at CAP, outlines the highlights, the problems and the evolution of the UK's innovation policy. ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675151

As the stimulus package works its way through the Congressional process, more attention is being paid to the technology part of it -- both pro and con. Critics question whether increased broadband and construction of research facilities is truly stimulative. Proponents argue for the importance of the transformational ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675152

In an earlier posting I noted the need for the stimulus package to be transformative rather than simply boost consumption in an attempt to re-inflate the bubble.

Now, Jonathan Ortmans, President of The Public Forum Institute writing in at the Kaufman Foundation's blog on entrepreneurship makes the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675149

Dan Castro and Rob Atkinson over at ITIF have published a new report "Stim-Novation": Investing in Research to Spur Innovation and Boost Jobs:

Scientific research underpins the great technological advances of the past century, from mapping the human genome to the development of the Internet. Increased investment in ...