January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Intangible Economy
"Insights and information on the I-Cubed (Information, Innovation, Intangible) Economy”
After a week of Inauguration activities, houseguests and software upgrades - the Intangible Economy is back to blogging.
It has been an exciting week in Washington - with more surely to come on the policy and political front. An indication of how exciting is already evident in the debate over ...
According to an AP story on WSJ.com, Circuit City has "reached an agreement with liquidators on Friday to sell the merchandise in its 567 U.S. stores after failing to line up a buyer or a refinancing deal." As I noted before, ...
As I mentioned in Wednesday's posting, the Center for American Progress held an event on Monday on Spurring Innovation to Lift the Economy (also see the video of the roundtable panel discussion). Like the patent reform discussion described on Weds, ...
The latest issue of BEA's Survey of Current Business contains an article Toward Better Measurement of Innovation and Intangibles:
While all countries account for investment in tangible assets in their gross domestic product (GDP) ...
Joff Wild at the IAM Magazine blog passes along this important tidbit:
Comments have been invited on two draft documents with a view to making the valuation of intangibles more transparent and consistent. Issued by the International Valuation Standards Council, Revised Guidance Note no 4, entitled Valuation ...
A slight piece of good news this morning. The Conference Boards' Leading Indicator Index -- designed to forecast future economic activity -- rose in December for the first time in a number of months. This is somewhat of a surprise. The not-surprising news is that the ...
One other follow on to the earlier posting on the Center for American Progress's report on innovation: their look at British Innovation Policy. This paper, by Will Straw at CAP, outlines the highlights, the problems and the evolution of the UK's innovation policy. ...
As the stimulus package works its way through the Congressional process, more attention is being paid to the technology part of it -- both pro and con. Critics question whether increased broadband and construction of research facilities is truly stimulative. Proponents argue for the importance of the transformational ...
In an earlier posting I noted the need for the stimulus package to be transformative rather than simply boost consumption in an attempt to re-inflate the bubble.
Dan Castro and Rob Atkinson over at ITIF have published a new report "Stim-Novation": Investing in Research to Spur Innovation and Boost Jobs:
Scientific research underpins the great technological advances of the past century, from mapping the human genome to the development of the Internet. Increased investment in ...