September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Intangible Economy
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In an earlier posting I noted the need for the stimulus package to be transformative rather than simply boost consumption in an attempt to re-inflate the bubble.
A slight piece of good news this morning. The Conference Boards' Leading Indicator Index -- designed to forecast future economic activity -- rose in December for the first time in a number of months. This is somewhat of a surprise. The not-surprising news is that the ...
Joff Wild at the IAM Magazine blog passes along this important tidbit:
Comments have been invited on two draft documents with a view to making the valuation of intangibles more transparent and consistent. Issued by the International Valuation Standards Council, Revised Guidance Note no 4, entitled Valuation ...
After a week of Inauguration activities, houseguests and software upgrades - the Intangible Economy is back to blogging.
It has been an exciting week in Washington - with more surely to come on the policy and political front. An indication of how exciting is already evident in the debate over ...
As the stimulus package works its way through the Congressional process, more attention is being paid to the technology part of it -- both pro and con. Critics question whether increased broadband and construction of research facilities is truly stimulative. Proponents argue for the importance of the transformational ...
One other follow on to the earlier posting on the Center for American Progress's report on innovation: their look at British Innovation Policy. This paper, by Will Straw at CAP, outlines the highlights, the problems and the evolution of the UK's innovation policy. ...
Bruce Nussbaum makes a great point on his blog about what is happening or not happening in the economic policy debate, as exemplified by the discussions in Davos:
A "transformational crisis" is the term used in the opening session of the World Economic Forum by founder Klaus Schwab to ...
In his Washington Post business column today, Not What the Doctor Ordered, Steven Pearlstein raises concerns over the Pfizer-Wyeth. In the piece, he makes an important point about the drug industry:
Because the bulk of profits in the industry come from temporary monopolies -- government-granted patents -- the ...
Dan Castro and Rob Atkinson over at ITIF have published a new report "Stim-Novation": Investing in Research to Spur Innovation and Boost Jobs:
Scientific research underpins the great technological advances of the past century, from mapping the human genome to the development of the Internet. Increased investment in ...
In an earlier posting, I noted that the index of leading indicators went up in December. Well, here is the story why this is not necessarily good news. From the Wall Street Journal Real Economics blog:
On Monday, the Conference Board released its index of leading ...