Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Intangible Economy

"Insights and information on the I-Cubed (Information, Innovation, Intangible) Economy”

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July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503447

As I mentioned in Wednesday's posting, the Center for American Progress held an event on Monday on Spurring Innovation to Lift the Economy (also see the video of the roundtable panel discussion). Like the patent reform discussion described on Weds, ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503448

The latest issue of BEA's Survey of Current Business contains an article Toward Better Measurement of Innovation and Intangibles:

While all countries account for investment in tangible assets in their gross domestic product (GDP) ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503449

The House Democrats have released the outline of their American Reinvestment proposal. There is a lot in there, including a number of items to stimulate innovation, such as increased funds for the Technology Innovation Program and the Manufacturing Extension Program, money for R&D facilities and equipment, education, training, ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503450

A few quick tidbits from the patent wars:

First, on Monday, the Center for America Progress had an event which included a panel on patent reform (see second panel of the event video Enabling Economic Recovery Through Innovation -- more on the first panel on ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503446

According to an AP story on, Circuit City has "reached an agreement with liquidators on Friday to sell the merchandise in its 567 U.S. stores after failing to line up a buyer or a refinancing deal." As I noted before, ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503445

After a week of Inauguration activities, houseguests and software upgrades - the Intangible Economy is back to blogging.

It has been an exciting week in Washington - with more surely to come on the policy and political front. An indication of how exciting is already evident in the debate over ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503442

In an earlier posting I noted the need for the stimulus package to be transformative rather than simply boost consumption in an attempt to re-inflate the bubble.

Now, Jonathan Ortmans, President of The Public Forum Institute writing in at the Kaufman Foundation's blog on entrepreneurship makes the ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503443

A slight piece of good news this morning. The Conference Boards' Leading Indicator Index -- designed to forecast future economic activity -- rose in December for the first time in a number of months. This is somewhat of a surprise. The not-surprising news is that the ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503444

Joff Wild at the IAM Magazine blog passes along this important tidbit:

Comments have been invited on two draft documents with a view to making the valuation of intangibles more transparent and consistent. Issued by the International Valuation Standards Council, Revised Guidance Note no 4, entitled Valuation ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503441

As the stimulus package works its way through the Congressional process, more attention is being paid to the technology part of it -- both pro and con. Critics question whether increased broadband and construction of research facilities is truly stimulative. Proponents argue for the importance of the transformational ...