Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294866
Hugh Hewitt had Jonathan Alter on last night, and this is part of the transcript:

HH: I’m going to ask you, would you point to me to any single project, a power plant, a nuclear power plant, a new bridge, a new college, a new campus, that the stimulus ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294867

...finding the right level of government for Americans is simply impossible unless we decide which ideal we prefer: a free enterprise society with a solid but limited safety net, or a cradle-to-grave, redistributive welfare ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294868
I'm just surprised greatly by the unwillingness of people to remember the past.  The graph below from an article by John Taylor last year illustrates that temporary tax cuts do not work. 

This ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294869
So how can a report that headlines an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in jobs be good?  Let me make a few quick points on a busy day:
Ed is bemused by the happy language in the Reuters report.  But the expectation on private sector ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294865
We have long railed against suppressions of free speech on our campus.  While not directly the same, a new case taken up by the Institute for Justice shows a whole different suppression of free speech, disguised as nanny-statist regulation.  As in almost all of these cases I think of, ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294864
In what was really not a surprise to most of us, the National Bureau for Economic Research has marked the end of the recession as June 2009.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294861

When we say that the government should concern itself with market failures, we are obviously acknowledging that markets are not perfect. Market failures can occur when we have monopolies, externalities (like pollution), public goods (fire protection, for example), and information problems (such as when people cheat others in the marketplace). ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294862
Co-blogger Janet dropped me a message last night about the Federal Reserve's actions yesterday.  In their statement Tuesday the FOMC included this paragraph:

Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294863
I watched the infighting in the White House economics team and actually didn't think too much of it.  Larry Summers has had almost a hundred articles written about him that say he's a tough guy to get along with.  Let me tell you, that's not a demerit among economists. ...


July 2, 2014, 10:44 pm, 1294860
Fabio Rojas talks about grad school for those who go to programs where you are done in 5-6 years, "short-clock disciplines" like economics:

Short clock disciplines do not expect much from grad students. You don't need a long list of publications or even a terribly well-developed paper - because ...