Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223455
John Lott is discussing a new "lifeline to families with underwater mortgages."

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will offer financial institutions holding mortgages worth more than the value of the houses, so-called "underwater" mortgages, a guarantee on 90 percent of the mortgage value if the institution will write-off ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223457
I bet I know what Phil Miller is doing:  Checking out Deadspin's posting of baseball quarterly financial reports.  Maury Brown is doing some great analysis of the data, like how much revenue the team earns from the post-season (between $2-3 million per home date; more, after the ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223456
My former student Liz is blogging again after a long hiatus. (Too long!) Her first post deals with the draft, and cites my post as her inspiration. We had corresponded before she wrote this, but the result was much more satisfying than what I had ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223438
Daniel Hannan, the conservative MEP from the UK, offers some advice to Ireland:

Denied the ability to devalue, undercut by sterling and obliged to borrow even more money in order to participate in the Greek bail-out, Ireland’s position has become calamitous: debt and unemployment are rising, prices and incomes ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223439
Noticed while grabbing a quick lunch this Powerline post on the withholding of information about Citigroup's guarantee provided by Treasury.  I wanted to note that this has been going on for some time, and I've reported on the similar story of researcher Vern McKinley.  While looking at ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223437
It takes me almost all week to get to the bottom of a TMQ, but I persevere because it's almost always with a few observations that get that audible hmmm sound out of me at the laptop. Last week's was no exception.

Running quarterbacks dominate college football and ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223434
Gregg Easterbrook points out a story that should further warm the hearts of New Yorkers.

Over the last several months, 22,741 New Yorkers contacted the city’s Department of Sanitation and arranged for the pickup of refrigerators, air-conditioners and freezers. In more than 11,000 instances, the machines vanished before ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223433
Regarding the previous post, the New York Post is now reporting that there is a deliberate slowdown of plowing in New York City to protest the budget cuts. Mayor Bloomberg insists on investigation. Ed Morrissey is skeptical, and I think rightfully so.

I’m a ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223435
Sadly.  (h/t: Tyler Cowen.)  We had him in St. Cloud for a Winter Institute many years ago -- I think we still have his talk on tape, I should see if we can get it up on YouTube -- and he was as delightful as he is in ...

February 11, 2014, 6:44 pm, 1223436
I read (via Hugh Hewitt) Jennifer Rubin's account of the seemingly pro-Iran advertising of international banking giant HSBC.  I spent a little time around the bank's Armenia operation when doing a report on remittances in that country.  HSBC there is largely a deposit-collection facility, offering citizens a chance ...