Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

SCSU Scholars

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773683
Noticed while grabbing a quick lunch this Powerline post on the withholding of information about Citigroup's guarantee provided by Treasury. I wanted to note that this has been going on for some time, and I've reported on the similar story of researcher Vern McKinley. While looking at ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773684

For the fourth quarter in a row, the nation's top economics bloggers have conveyed a steadily deteriorating view of the U.S. economy in responses to a Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation survey released today. ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773685
When I heard today's Nobel Prize announcement for the economics award I thought "what was it George Stigler was awarded for?" Of course, Stigler received his award almost 30 years ago, but the story is quite similar:

A market participant's lack of knowledge about goods and prices can, ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773686
I read the new employment report by looking at private sector job creation rather than the top number, because of the noisiness of the temporary Census workers making the top number less reliable. Private sector job creation was up 64,000 in September, and is up 863,000 since its trough ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773682
Daniel Hannan, the conservative MEP from the UK, offers some advice to Ireland:

Denied the ability to devalue, undercut by sterling and obliged to borrow even more money in order to participate in the Greek bail-out, Ireland’s position has become calamitous: debt and unemployment are rising, prices and incomes ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773681
It takes me almost all week to get to the bottom of a TMQ, but I persevere because it's almost always with a few observations that get that audible hmmm sound out of me at the laptop. Last week's was no exception.

Running quarterbacks dominate college football and ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773678
Gregg Easterbrook points out a story that should further warm the hearts of New Yorkers.

Over the last several months, 22,741 New Yorkers contacted the city’s Department of Sanitation and arranged for the pickup of refrigerators, air-conditioners and freezers. In more than 11,000 instances, the machines vanished before ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773679
Sadly. (h/t: Tyler Cowen.) We had him in St. Cloud for a Winter Institute many years ago -- I think we still have his talk on tape, I should see if we can get it up on YouTube -- and he was as delightful as he is in ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773680
I read (via Hugh Hewitt) Jennifer Rubin's account of the seemingly pro-Iran advertising of international banking giant HSBC. I spent a little time around the bank's Armenia operation when doing a report on remittances in that country. HSBC there is largely a deposit-collection facility, offering citizens a chance ...

September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773677
Regarding the previous post, the New York Post is now reporting that there is a deliberate slowdown of plowing in New York City to protest the budget cuts. Mayor Bloomberg insists on investigation. Ed Morrissey is skeptical, and I think rightfully so.

I’m a ...