Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676375
Noticed while grabbing a quick lunch this Powerline post on the withholding of information about Citigroup's guarantee provided by Treasury. I wanted to note that this has been going on for some time, and I've reported on the similar story of researcher Vern McKinley. While looking at ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676376

For the fourth quarter in a row, the nation's top economics bloggers have conveyed a steadily deteriorating view of the U.S. economy in responses to a Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation survey released today. ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676377
When I heard today's Nobel Prize announcement for the economics award I thought "what was it George Stigler was awarded for?" Of course, Stigler received his award almost 30 years ago, but the story is quite similar:

A market participant's lack of knowledge about goods and prices can, ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676378
I read the new employment report by looking at private sector job creation rather than the top number, because of the noisiness of the temporary Census workers making the top number less reliable. Private sector job creation was up 64,000 in September, and is up 863,000 since its trough ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676374
Daniel Hannan, the conservative MEP from the UK, offers some advice to Ireland:

Denied the ability to devalue, undercut by sterling and obliged to borrow even more money in order to participate in the Greek bail-out, Ireland’s position has become calamitous: debt and unemployment are rising, prices and incomes ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676373
It takes me almost all week to get to the bottom of a TMQ, but I persevere because it's almost always with a few observations that get that audible hmmm sound out of me at the laptop. Last week's was no exception.

Running quarterbacks dominate college football and ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676370
Gregg Easterbrook points out a story that should further warm the hearts of New Yorkers.

Over the last several months, 22,741 New Yorkers contacted the city’s Department of Sanitation and arranged for the pickup of refrigerators, air-conditioners and freezers. In more than 11,000 instances, the machines vanished before ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676371
Sadly. (h/t: Tyler Cowen.) We had him in St. Cloud for a Winter Institute many years ago -- I think we still have his talk on tape, I should see if we can get it up on YouTube -- and he was as delightful as he is in ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676372
I read (via Hugh Hewitt) Jennifer Rubin's account of the seemingly pro-Iran advertising of international banking giant HSBC. I spent a little time around the bank's Armenia operation when doing a report on remittances in that country. HSBC there is largely a deposit-collection facility, offering citizens a chance ...


September 19, 2016, 12:44 am, 1676369
Regarding the previous post, the New York Post is now reporting that there is a deliberate slowdown of plowing in New York City to protest the budget cuts. Mayor Bloomberg insists on investigation. Ed Morrissey is skeptical, and I think rightfully so.

I’m a ...