Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Sybil’s Star (Katy Delay)

"Proving that economics and sense of humor are not mutually exclusive”

April 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1258895
I'm sitting behind my computer with an amazing view out my window. Europe (for me, France in particular) is beautiful this time of year.

March 15, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1241189
The penny has officially become worthless. I finally had to admit this the other day when I found a pile of them in a parking lot, just as if they had been smelly old cigarette butts dumped out of a car ashtray by someone in a hurry.

A few ...

February 12, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1224314
This weekend's Wall Street Journal published an article by Taos Turner on price inflation in Argentina. What I take away is that the country is in a state of internal warfare.

The Pertinent Fact:

According to the article, Argentina's public is now confronted with 30 percent annual ...

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222493

Alan Greenspan is embarrassing himself again (or if not, he should be):

"[Easy money] had absolutely nothing to do with the housing bubble," he says. "That's ridiculous."

[One of my cartoons from April of ...

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222492
I am happy to announce that my biographical sketch of economist, investment advisor, and philosopher Edward C. Harwood is now available. For the print/hard copy, please click on the following link:

If you prefer the Kindle/digital edition, ...

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222494
My weekly reading always includes John Mauldin's "Outside the Box." (You can also subscribe for free here, at the top/right of the page.) This week inhis latest post,he gives us some recent thoughts fromGeorge Gilderon economics.

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222489
I have vented my unscientific opinion about the existence of asset bubbles in our economy. If you are interested in this subject, please be so kind as to click on the following link:

Asset Bubbles, How Do I Love Thee?

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222488
Danny Vinik, publishing in Business Insider, discusses the pros and cons of extending unemployment benefits, but in spite of a good presentation of the issue, he draws the wrong conclusion.

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222490
Sometimes one finds basic logic in the strangest places. Kristen Bell, a young TV and movie actress writing in last May's Timemagazine to describe the genius of Perry Chen (the inventor of Kickstarter, the "catalyst for the crowd funding economy"), says this:

"There's something so smart and magical about ...

February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222491
Recently, a good friend asked me to describe the recent research on the subject of "sound money." He is referring to money that is not fiat, money that is anchored in something with real value as contrasted to market-determined value.

Historically, the last time the world had any sound ...