Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Sybil’s Star (Katy Delay)

"Proving that economics and sense of humor are not mutually exclusive”

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773878
If you'd like to read a Gadfly's opinion about holding gold-related investments, please read†this article at Seeking Alpha. †Thanks.

[Image from ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773879
I have just finished one of the best books I've read in a very long time. †It is this:

Investing Freedom: How the ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773880
David Theroux of the Independent Institute asks me to post to his keynote talk at a conference in San Antonio, TX, on August 2, 2014. †I'm happy to oblige. †The title is:

"C.S. Lewis on Mere Liberty and the Evils of Statism"


Click Here

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773881

[Thanks to for the image.]

History has shown unequivocally that you don't want to monkey with money and credit.

This is the†cogent warning†recently issued by ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773877
I looked at the first page of the Wall Street Journal today, there to find an article about our favorite gurus, the Federal Reserve Board.† Most market players are predicting that the Federal Reserve Board will do nothing this year about interest rates.

The article contains a really ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773876
My previous post mentions tea leaves as a way for the Fed to determine policy.† I bet you thought I was kidding.† Well, watch this video to see what Fed-watchers are watching.† And just in case you're wondering, it's not a comedy sketch.

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773873
Richard Duncan is an interesting fellow.† His eyesight seems 20/20 when it comes to analyzing how we got where we are today.† Yet his solution is unthinkable to me.

If you are curious, please listen to this hour-long interview.† It will get you thinking and you will learn a ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773874
Thanks to

No one can deny that current markets are scary, so I have opined in an article at Seeking ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773875
In last weekend's Wall Street Journal I read yet another ridiculous statement by a member of that elite group called Central Bankers.† They make me chuckle every time they open their mouth.†

How many times do we have to hear that Madame Yellen or Monsieur Draghi has everything ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773872
Edward C. Harwood predicted that some day the world would see a currency based on metric units of gold. †He didn't know what form it would take, but he felt certain that it would happen. †(Read about his Institute here.)

Now please read this piece of ...