Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

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The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Sybil’s Star (Katy Delay)

"Proving that economics and sense of humor are not mutually exclusive”

April 21, 2017, 5:34 pm, 1740007
Edward C. Harwood predicted that some day the world would see a currency based on metric units of gold. †He didn't know what form it would take, but he felt certain that it would happen. †(Read about his Institute here.)

Now please read this piece of ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675114
David Theroux of the Independent Institute asks me to post to his keynote talk at a conference in San Antonio, TX, on August 2, 2014. †I'm happy to oblige. †The title is:

"C.S. Lewis on Mere Liberty and the Evils of Statism"


Click Here

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675115

[Thanks to for the image.]

History has shown unequivocally that you don't want to monkey with money and credit.

This is the†cogent warning†recently issued by ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675116
Price inflation seems to be right around the corner, if it isn't already here, which means that the Federal Reserve may soon have to put their QE genie back in its bottle. †At least that's my hope, for the sake of our children's future.

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675113
I have just finished one of the best books I've read in a very long time. †It is this:

Investing Freedom: How the ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675111
I looked at the first page of the Wall Street Journal today, there to find an article about our favorite gurus, the Federal Reserve Board.† Most market players are predicting that the Federal Reserve Board will do nothing this year about interest rates.

The article contains a really ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675108
Thanks to

No one can deny that current markets are scary, so I have opined in an article at Seeking ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675109
In last weekend's Wall Street Journal I read yet another ridiculous statement by a member of that elite group called Central Bankers.† They make me chuckle every time they open their mouth.†

How many times do we have to hear that Madame Yellen or Monsieur Draghi has everything ...

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675110
My previous post mentions tea leaves as a way for the Fed to determine policy.† I bet you thought I was kidding.† Well, watch this video to see what Fed-watchers are watching.† And just in case you're wondering, it's not a comedy sketch.

September 18, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1675112
If you'd like to read a Gadfly's opinion about holding gold-related investments, please read†this article at Seeking Alpha. †Thanks.

[Image from ...