Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Sybil’s Star (Katy Delay)

"Proving that economics and sense of humor are not mutually exclusive”

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295952
In spite of the hesitant Consumer Confidence Index, the New Year is bringing us improved animal spirits. The various stock indices are reaching record levels. Is it time to plunge back into ordinary investments, as the retail sector seems to be doing? Should we dust off the Modern Portfolio Theory ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295953
If you'd like to see just how ridiculous politics can get, please take a look at these:

First, is the list of 23 "executive actions" [by the way, what are these?] Obama has just put in place to solve the gun problem. These are all for prime ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295937
I have vented my unscientific opinion about the existence of asset bubbles in our economy. If you are interested in this subject, please be so kind as to click on the following link:

Asset Bubbles, How Do I Love Thee?

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295939
Recently, a good friend asked me to describe the recent research on the subject of "sound money." He is referring to money that is not fiat, money that is anchored in something with real value as contrasted to market-determined value.

Historically, the last time the world had any sound ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295936
Danny Vinik, publishing in Business Insider, discusses the pros and cons of extending unemployment benefits, but in spite of a good presentation of the issue, he draws the wrong conclusion.

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295938
Sometimes one finds basic logic in the strangest places. Kristen Bell, a young TV and movie actress writing in last May's Timemagazine to describe the genius of Perry Chen (the inventor of Kickstarter, the "catalyst for the crowd funding economy"), says this:

"There's something so smart and magical about ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295934
The Keynesians are saying that price inflation is not a problem and probably won't arrive. The Austrians and others are saying that price inflation must come at some point, given all the monetary stimulus introduced by the Fed. But could they both be wrong?

I hypothesize that price inflation ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295932
This weekend's Wall Street Journal published an article by Taos Turner on price inflation in Argentina. What I take away is that the country is in a state of internal warfare.

The Pertinent Fact:

According to the article, Argentina's public is now confronted with 30 percent annual ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295933
I always read John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, and in one was a quoted passage that made me gasp in disbelief:

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. ...

July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295935
Publicly funded benefits such as welfare, food stamps, and other kinds of nationalized kindness are sometimes self-defeating. Would parents accept in their house and finance indefinitely the needs of an able-bodied grown person, plus his or her partner and their child, without expectation of a helping hand? Probably not. So ...