Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Sybil’s Star (Katy Delay)

"Proving that economics and sense of humor are not mutually exclusive”

July 30, 2016, 11:34 am, 1658947
Richard Duncan is an interesting fellow.† His eyesight seems 20/20 when it comes to analyzing how we got where we are today.† Yet his solution is unthinkable to me.†

If you are curious, please listen to this hour-long interview.† It will get you thinking and you will learn a ...

February 12, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1608164
Thanks to

No one can deny that current markets are scary, so I have opined in an article at Seeking ...

December 7, 2015, 7:34 pm, 1587526
In last weekend's Wall Street Journal I read yet another ridiculous statement by a member of that elite group called Central Bankers.† They make me chuckle every time they open their mouth.†

How many times do we have to hear that Madame Yellen or Monsieur Draghi has everything ...

November 3, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1569226
My previous post mentions tea leaves as a way for the Fed to determine policy.† I bet you thought I was kidding.† Well, watch this video to see what the Fed is really watching.† And just in case you're wondering, it's not a comedy sketch.

October 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1564721
I looked at the first page of the Wall Street Journal today, there to find an article about our favorite gurus, the Federal Reserve Board.† Most market players are predicting that the Federal Reserve Board will do nothing this year about interest rates.

The article contains a really ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503421
There are a couple of e-mail circulars that I read regularly, or almost regularly. †The top of my list is John Mauldin, author of The End Game (excellent book, a must-read).

Number Two is Casey Research.

Today's scripture from Casey will permit me to be lazy ...

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503420
I'm living in France at the moment, so what happens here is particularly interesting to me. †The ambiance is a mix of anxiety about the future and cautious hope that things can't be as bad as they seem.

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503419
Economics is very closely related to public policy. †Freedom, as protected by our Constitution, is an essential ingredient of our high standard of living in America, and it is a sine qua non of all scientific research.

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503418
My weekly reading always includes John Mauldin's "Outside the Box." †(You can also subscribe for free here, at the top/right of the page.) †This week in†his latest post,†he gives us some recent thoughts from†George Gilder†on economics.

July 5, 2015, 1:33 am, 1503417

Alan Greenspan is embarrassing himself again (or if not, he should be):

†"[Easy money] had absolutely nothing to do with the housing bubble," he says. "That's ridiculous."

[One of my cartoons from April of ...