Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Indian Economy Blog


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295962

The Internet may have worked wonders for Obama in the US, but is unlikely to be even half as effective in India

In a nation where a quarter of eligible voters are now between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five, the 2009 elections will see a potential 100 million young Indians ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295963

Social entrepreneurship inching forward in India, albeit slowly and fitfully : India’s Spirit Of Business Booming

Hygiene doesn’t make it too often to the media. However, as anyone who’s spent more than 24 hrs in India knows, the lack of adequate toilets is a huge, huge issue.

Two ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295964

India’s Underground & Hinterland seem to be the topics du jour :-)

In the Wall Street Journal, Peter Wonacott says India Defies Slump, Powered by Growth in Poor Rural States.

Rama Lakshmi of the Washington Post said as much last month: Vast Rural India Sparkles As an Expanding Market

About ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295965

After 26/11, Jack Welch pointed out that the attacks posed a question for India in terms of its ability to manage itself. China, although under authoritarian rule, had managed to pull off the Beijing Olympics, and assured safety for investors. India faced that question, post 26/11.

Now, with ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295961

Kudos to Amit Varma and Reuben Abraham

Amit Varma, India’s foremost blogger and award-winning columnist, has been busy recently.

His first novel, My Friend Sancho releases this week in fine bookstores all across India. Click here for launch details — so far, it’s Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295960

The El Dorado for auto-didacts

Salman Khan, a portfolio manager in California has created hundreds of free educational videos, available on his web site, the Khan Academy and on YouTube. These videos cover the basics of banking, finance and the current credit crisis — I saw a couple ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295957

A write-up of mine recently appeared in India Abroad and TCS Daily on Montek Singh Ahluwalia’s talk at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, during the PM’s visit in November.

Here’s the link.


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295958

Nouriel Roubini, of the infamous (and silly) Dr Doom moniker, says India might just do OK.

Despite slowing from highs of 8% to 9% growth, India’s economy will grow close to 6% in 2009. Amid domestic and global liquidity crunch, large domestic savings and corporate retained ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295959

“For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295956

(I wrote this after my visit to Shanghai and Beijing in May ’10, as part of my MBA program at Duke. I originally circulated it around with friends and other readers with the title “China is at least 2 generations behind the rest”, but that was just needlessly provocative, and ...