September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Indian Economy Blog
Social entrepreneurship inching forward in India, albeit slowly and fitfully : India’s Spirit Of Business Booming
Hygiene doesn’t make it too often to the media. However, as anyone who’s spent more than 24 hrs in India knows, the lack of adequate toilets is a huge, huge issue.
After 26/11, Jack Welch pointed out that the attacks posed a question for India in terms of its ability to manage itself. China, although under authoritarian rule, had managed to pull off the Beijing Olympics, and assured safety for investors. India faced that question, post 26/11.
Now, with ...
India’s Underground & Hinterland seem to be the topics du jour :-)
In the Wall Street Journal, Peter Wonacott says India Defies Slump, Powered by Growth in Poor Rural States.
Rama Lakshmi of the Washington Post said as much last month: Vast Rural India Sparkles As an Expanding Market
Kudos to Amit Varma and Reuben Abraham
His first novel, My Friend Sancho releases this week in fine bookstores all across India. Click here for launch details — so far, it’s Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, ...
The Internet may have worked wonders for Obama in the US, but is unlikely to be even half as effective in India
In a nation where a quarter of eligible voters are now between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five, the 2009 elections will see a potential 100 million young Indians ...
The El Dorado for auto-didacts
Salman Khan, a portfolio manager in California has created hundreds of free educational videos, available on his web site, the Khan Academy and on YouTube. These videos cover the basics of banking, finance and the current credit crisis — I saw a couple ...
A write-up of mine recently appeared in India Abroad and TCS Daily on Montek Singh Ahluwalia’s talk at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, during the PM’s visit in November.
Here’s the link.
(I wrote this after my visit to Shanghai and Beijing in May ’10, as part of my MBA program at Duke. I originally circulated it around with friends and other readers with the title “China is at least 2 generations behind the rest”, but that was just needlessly provocative, and ...
Despite slowing from highs of 8% to 9% growth, India’s economy will grow close to 6% in 2009. Amid domestic and global liquidity crunch, large domestic savings and corporate retained ...
“For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a ...