Technical Problems 1/21/15
The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Indian Economy Blog
The Internet may have worked wonders for Obama in the US, but is unlikely to be even half as effective in India
In a nation where a quarter of eligible voters are now between the ages of eighteen and twenty-five, the 2009 elections will see a potential 100 million young Indians ...
Social entrepreneurship inching forward in India, albeit slowly and fitfully : India’s Spirit Of Business Booming
Hygiene doesn’t make it too often to the media. However, as anyone who’s spent more than 24 hrs in India knows, the lack of adequate toilets is a huge, huge issue.
India’s Underground & Hinterland seem to be the topics du jour :-)
In the Wall Street Journal, Peter Wonacott says India Defies Slump, Powered by Growth in Poor Rural States.
Rama Lakshmi of the Washington Post said as much last month: Vast Rural India Sparkles As an Expanding Market
After 26/11, Jack Welch pointed out that the attacks posed a question for India in terms of its ability to manage itself. China, although under authoritarian rule, had managed to pull off the Beijing Olympics, and assured safety for investors. India faced that question, post 26/11.
Now, with ...
Kudos to Amit Varma and Reuben Abraham
His first novel, My Friend Sancho releases this week in fine bookstores all across India. Click here for launch details — so far, it’s Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, ...
The El Dorado for auto-didacts
Salman Khan, a portfolio manager in California has created hundreds of free educational videos, available on his web site, the Khan Academy and on YouTube. These videos cover the basics of banking, finance and the current credit crisis — I saw a couple ...
A write-up of mine recently appeared in India Abroad and TCS Daily on Montek Singh Ahluwalia’s talk at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, during the PM’s visit in November.
Here’s the link.
Despite slowing from highs of 8% to 9% growth, India’s economy will grow close to 6% in 2009. Amid domestic and global liquidity crunch, large domestic savings and corporate retained ...
“For what it’s worth, a key conclusion from the IMF’s new World Economic Outlook is that recessions caused by financial crisis typically end with export booms, with the trade balance improving,on average, by more than 3 percent of GDP. I find this a disturbing result: we’re now suffering from a ...
(I wrote this after my visit to Shanghai and Beijing in May ’10, as part of my MBA program at Duke. I originally circulated it around with friends and other readers with the title “China is at least 2 generations behind the rest”, but that was just needlessly provocative, and ...