Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Midwest Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


April 21, 2014, 1:34 pm, 1258368

By Jacob Berman, Associate Economist

The social safety net in the United States consists of dozens of anti-poverty programs on the local, state, and federal level that provide benefits to low-income households. Although anti-poverty programs are generally funded by the federal government, most are administered by states. State governments have broad ...


April 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1256597

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District picked up ...


April 3, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1250569

By Paul Traub and Bill Testa

The severity of this winter season has had a noticeably negative impact on everything from retail sales to industrial production. Roadway freight operations are no exception.

The effects of the extreme cold and heavy snow, which started last December and has continued into March of ...


March 17, 2014, 11:33 am, 1241681

By Thomas Klier, Bill Testa, and Thomas Walstrum

The automotive industry is somewhat synonymous with Michigan. This relationship was born of an explosion of technological innovation in Southeast Michigan, including the assembly line and key developments in the internal combustion engine and transmission system. Looking at innovative activity today, a ...


March 10, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1238117

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District slowed in ...


February 14, 2014, 11:33 am, 1225518

By Bill Testa[1]

In assessing economic conditions among states and regions, we often pay a lot of attention to the current unemployment rate. The unemployment rate measures the share of the work force that is out of work and actively seeking employment. The release of the unemployment rate ...


February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222416

By Paul Traub

The U.S. Census Bureau announced in August in its U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Report for June 2013 that the petroleum[1] deficit had fallen to its lowest level ($17.4 billion) since August 2009 ($17.9 billion). This decline was the result not only of ...


February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222415

By Thom Walstrum and Bill Testa

The dispersion of auto assembly line-type jobs from Michigan to the rest of the U.S. has been widely discussed. But it may be important to examine whether other jobs in the automotive value chain have also dispersed, particularly R&D and headquarters-administrative jobs. It is ...


February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222414

By Emily Engel and Susan Longworth

On Friday September 27, 2013, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted the Summit on Regional Competiveness (Summit) with The Alliance for Regional Development (Alliance) and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce. The Alliance is an economic development group working to implement recommendations ...


February 11, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1222413

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: The rate of growth in economic activity in the Seventh ...