Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Midwest Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


July 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1306717

By Rick Mattoon

This is a second in a series of blogs that highlights findings from an upcoming Economic Perspectives article on economic development efforts and industry trends in the largest metropolitan areas in the Seventh District. (For a complete profile of all five cities see, Industrial ...


July 28, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306628

By Rick Mattoon

This is a second in a series of blogs that highlights findings from an upcoming Economic Perspectives article on economic development efforts and industry trends in the largest metropolitan areas in the Seventh District. (For a complete profile of all five cities see, Industrial ...


July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1304005

By Rick Mattoon

In a forthcoming article in the bank’s Economic Perspectives, I profile the economic development efforts underway in the five largest cities in the Seventh District—Des Moines, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago. (For a complete profile of all five cities see, Industrial clusters and economic development ...


July 16, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1302089

By Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity remained moderate in June and contacts ...


July 10, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1299311

By Bill Testa

The housing sector has made halting progress throughout the five-year recovery from the Great Recession. Beginning in June 2013, progress began to slow as mortgage rates jumped, thereby hampering affordability and lending viability. Even as home mortgage rates and lending standards were beginning to ease, this ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295871

By Emily Engel and Susan Longworth

On Friday September 27, 2013, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago hosted the Summit on Regional Competiveness (Summit) with The Alliance for Regional Development (Alliance) and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce. The Alliance is an economic development group working to implement recommendations ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295870

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: The rate of growth in economic activity in the Seventh ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295869

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: The rate of growth in economic activity in the Seventh ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295868

By Paul Traub

There has been a lot written about manufacturing returning to the United States from abroad, and there are data to suggest that this is happening. Rising wages abroad, falling energy prices in the U.S., and declining willingness of domestic manufacturers to suffer the delays and poorer quality of ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295867

By Bill Testa[1]

In assessing economic conditions among states and regions, we often pay a lot of attention to the current unemployment rate. The unemployment rate measures the share of the work force that is out of work and actively seeking employment. The release of the unemployment rate ...