Economics Roundtable
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
November Payroll Employment
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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Midwest Economy
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
By Bill Testa and Norman Wang
In the Midwest, the terms “industrial” and “cities” are almost synonymous. Though agriculture has been important to growth and development, the region’s economy was built on manufacturing, and the sector continues to be prominent—for both small towns and large metropolis alike.
However, labor and income ...
by Paul Traub
On Thursday, January 19, 2012, the Detroit Association for Business Economics (DABE) held its annual Automotive and Economic Outlook luncheon. This event is held each January at the Detroit Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in memory of Robert Fish—a past president ...
by Norman Wang and Scott Brave
A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book:
• Overall conditions: Economic activity in the Seventh District picked up in late November and December. Seventh District business ...
By Thom Walstrum and Norman Wang
On December 1, 2011, a group of experts convened to discuss developments in the Midwest economy in 2011 and to look forward to 2012 and beyond. The forum drew upon a variety of perspectives, hosting researchers from across the Midwest and from government, academic, and ...
By Daniel DiFranco and Emily Engel Rotenberg
High and rising foreclosures are a big concern in the Seventh District (IA, IL, IN, MI, and WI) and in the country and will continue to be for some time. Our last guest blog on the Midwest economy digs into what reported ...
Purchasing managers’ surveys—often referred to as purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports—provide timely information about the economy. In these monthly surveys, manufacturers are asked about their own purchases and their company’s supply chain. More specifically, manufacturing purchasing managers are asked about the directional heading of ...
Max Lichtenstein and Scott Brave
The Midwest has benefitted from the recent rebound in manufacturing. Over the past year, total employment in the Seventh District states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin has increased by just over 145,000 jobs, 40% of which has been due solely to manufacturing.
Bill Testa[1]
In terms of income and population growth, nonmetropolitan counties in the Seventh Federal Reserve District states have had their ups and down over the past few decades. The nonmetropolitan population of the Seventh District has not generally kept pace with its metropolitan counterpart—as in many other parts ...
by Norman Wang and Scott Brave
A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book:
• Overall conditions: Economic activity in the Seventh District picked up some in September. Seventh District business contacts continued to ...
Rapid increases in the value of Midwest farmland have contrasted sharply with the malaise of other real estate markets. At 17% (see chart), the year-over-year increase in the value of farmland in the Seventh Federal Reserve District for the second quarter of 2011 ...