Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Midwest Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago


August 25, 2014, 11:33 am, 1324085

By Bill Testa and Jacob Berman

There is no question that the U.S. labor market has been gradually but steadily healing after the Great Recession. The national unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009, but it has since fallen to 6.2% (as of July 2014). The nation experienced a net ...


August 18, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1320537

August 11, 2014, 11:33 am, 1316211

By Rick Mattoon

Detroit is the focus of this blog examining economic development issues in the five largest cities in the Chicago Fed’s District. (For a complete profile of all five cities. see “Industrial clusters and economic development in the Seventh District’s largest cities”). Relative to ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312227

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District picked up ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312226

By Jacob Berman, Associate Economist

The social safety net in the United States consists of dozens of anti-poverty programs on the local, state, and federal level that provide benefits to low-income households. Although anti-poverty programs are generally funded by the federal government, most are administered by states. State governments have broad ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312228

By Paul Traub and Bill Testa

The severity of this winter season has had a noticeably negative impact on everything from retail sales to industrial production. Roadway freight operations are no exception.

The effects of the extreme cold and heavy snow, which started last December and has continued into March of ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312223

By Emily Engel and Jere Boyle (via)

Community Development and Policy Studies at the Chicago Fed recently published profiles of a group of 10 cities that experienced significant manufacturing job loss in recent decades.

The Industrial Cities Initiative (ICI) includes, Aurora and Joliet in Illinois; Fort Wayne ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312222

By Bill Testa

Few would take issue that the U.S. economy is propelled by innovation. To stay ahead of their competitors, virtually all enterprises engage in innovation of one form or another. Such innovations take the form of improvements to products, services, and internal processes of production and delivery. In ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312224

by Thom Walstrum and Scott Brave

A summary of economic conditions in the Seventh District from the latest release of the Beige Book and from other indicators of regional business activity:

• Overall conditions: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District was moderate ...


August 5, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1312225

By Bill Testa

As the US economic recovery approaches the five-year mark, a look back shows that it has been far from a smooth and upward ride. Since the end of the Great Recession, the economy has grown at a generally disappointing pace with fits and starts due to repeated ...