Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”

October 30, 2014, 9:33 am, 1360690

Or: "Should Finance People be allowed out unaccompanied by a macroeconomist?".

If the central bank is doing its job right, monetary policy ought to appear to be irrelevant.

The Economist says (HT Mark Thoma) "Interest rates do not seem to affect investment as economists assume", and this means that monetary ...

October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356439

In its search for new revenues, Ontario commissioned a government panel to examine how to wring more money out of government assets. In recent days, the panel led by TD Bank CEO Ed Clark has revealed several ideas including selling off Hydro One’s distribution business, restructuring Ontario Power Generation so ...

October 23, 2014, 9:33 am, 1356283

There are two different monetary policies. The green monetary policy gives you the green AD curve, and the red monetary policy gives you the red AD curve. Both monetary policies give you exactly the same equilibrium P* and Y*. (You can interpret P* as the price level, or as the ...

October 21, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354992

The ideal tax system reflects a compromise between two conflicting goals: equity ...

October 21, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354991

In the 1960s, my mother's monthly family allowance cheque paid for a week's groceries.

In 2011, the median Canadian two-parent family had an income of just over $90,000. At that level of net income, a family with two children receives Canada Child Tax Benefit worth $87 per ...

October 21, 2014, 1:33 am, 1354493

I am going to give what I think is the intuition behind John Cochrane's paper (pdf), that is the subject of his recent post. (Or maybe what I'm doing is reverse-engineering his model's results.) The key result of his paper is the "Neo-Fisherian" finding that an ...

October 20, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1354441

The federal government has announced that, once the budget is in balance, its first priority will be "to provide tax relief to hard-working Canadian families."

In 2013, the federal deficit had shrunk to $13 billion. This year it may disappear entirely.

But it does not follow that the federal government ...

October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353713

Ultimately all economics is local. Ontario municipalities are in the final throes of a municipal election race and in my own community the question of municipal economic development via public sector construction spending has come up. The concern is that much of the economic activity in my community over the ...

October 18, 2014, 5:33 am, 1353347

Suppose I lend you $1,000, at 0% interest. But I warn you that as soon as you spend that $1,000, or lend it to someone else to spend, I will immediately make you repay the loan, or else raise the interest rate high enough to make you regret spending it ...

October 17, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1353136

I would imagine that the name Kenneth Carter is not well known outside of a narrow range of economic specialists and accountants working in the tax or public finance area. Kenneth Carter was appointed in 1962 by a Conservative Prime Minister – John Diefenbaker – to examine and report on ...