Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”

April 23, 2014, 9:33 am, 1259532

Retirement is weird, when you think about it. We consume small amounts of leisure for most of our lives, then suddenly stop working completely and consume a big bunch of leisure for the rest of our lives. We smooth our consumption of all other goods, but we don't smooth our ...

April 19, 2014, 9:33 am, 1257792

Well the price of gasoline just spiked upwards across Canada and the usual media analysis has begun. Five key reasons were summarized as follows by Shawn McCarthy in the Globe and Mail: 1) Approach of the summer driving season leading to a switch to summer ...

April 17, 2014, 7:33 am, 1256920

Speculative musings, from an inadequate historical background.

We tend to take it for granted that the world looks like this, from a monetary perspective:

The world is divided into currency areas. Each currency area has one alpha bank (the king). All the other banks are beta banks (subjects, who follow ...

April 11, 2014, 7:33 am, 1254162

If I see one more model of secular stagnation and negative equilibrium real interest rates, that does not include land....I'm going to throw a real wobbly.

What is it with you townies? Have you never looked out of the window, when you fly (do you ever drive?) from one city to ...

April 10, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1253872

It turns out that having a more efficient health care system is not just about sustainability or bean counting – it also can save lives.

A new study by the

April 10, 2014, 9:33 am, 1253621

This is speculative. I don't know whether it works empirically. Or, I should say, I don't know how much it works empirically. The effect I am talking about here might be large, and explain almost everything. Or it might be small, and explain almost nothing. I'm just throwing it out ...

April 8, 2014, 9:33 am, 1252324

It's good to think about weird worlds, which you know are different from the real world. It helps you understand the real world better. Here is a weird world where commercial banks' wanting to expand loans and deposits would reduce aggregate demand and cause deflation. But the only weird assumption ...

April 4, 2014, 11:33 am, 1250913

"Otherwise what I was mostly trying to suggest was that the banks anticipate the fact that the central bank won't let them double the supply of money and factor this into their loan and deposit pricing. The idea is that the current amount of deposits is not so much based ...

April 2, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1249823

It's a relative thing. I think it can only be defined relative to some specified alternative, like inflation targeting. It doesn't mean anything otherwise.

There are n different things a central bank could target, where n is an extremely large number. (Strictly, n is infinite, since any combination of two members ...

April 1, 2014, 1:33 am, 1248863

Yes, it is April 1st but this post is dead serious. A study was recently done for economics, chemistry and philosophy departments across ten Ontario universities in an effort to gain insight on teaching workloads and research productivity. The reason? Ontario universities are ...