May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Imagine you are at an international policy conference. Someone says "Central Banks need to coordinate their monetary policies better". You nod your head wisely in agreement, along with everyone else. Because you know that what one central bank does affects not just its own economy but the economies of other ...
To: Generation X, Generation Y and Millennials
From: The Baby Boomers
Re: Pension Savings
Date: June 21, 2016
It has come to our attention that you are not saving sufficiently for your retirement. This does not surprise us. We haven't saved sufficiently for our retirement either. Some of us have made enough money in the housing ...
Roger Farmer always has done interesting and different stuff. We need economists like that. But it's risky of course. What I'm trying to do here is articulate something that makes me uneasy about his recent line of macro theorising. Like his simple model here with Konstantin Platanov (pdf).
The Modigliani Miller Theorem says that a firm's financing policy is irrelevant. It's wrong of course, but it's a good place to start thinking about firms' financing policies.
It would be presumptuous to talk about an Irrelevance "Theorem" for Basic Income. The math is trivial, and the economics is obvious. (And ...
Let me start out with an extreme (and very silly) assumption, just so I can explain something simply. Assume that the demand for currency does not depend on the price level, nor on real income, nor on interest rates, nor on anything. It's just fixed. Every individual wants to hold ...
Not because he says anything daft, but precisely because what he says seems so sensible a set of minor modification. But it's a set ...
Today I'm presenting a paper at the meetings of the Canadian Economics Association: "Bargaining power and the incidence of taxes on high earners in Canada." The bottom line is that once you take into account the fact that high earners have bargaining power - that's why they are high earners ...
Just a simple "teaching" post.
There are two different ways of thinking about central bank profits (of doing the accounting). A simple numerical example will illustrate the difference.
Assume 2% inflation, and 1% real GDP growth, so Nominal GDP grows at 3%. Assume the stock of currency is 5% of annual NGDP. ...
Let's do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Assume a 5% currency/Nominal GDP ratio. Assume the government/central bank wants to use helicopter money to permanently raise the level of NGDP by 5% above what it would otherwise be. So the stock of currency will be permanently higher by 0.25% of NGDP. And assume ...
It is of course useful from time to time to take a look at the longer-term picture when it comes to health spending especially given that there is a slowdown in health expenditure growth. Figure 1 plots per capita total health expenditure in US PPP dollars from 1960 to 2014 ...