Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”


July 29, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1307604

One of the more puzzling features of the Canadian labour market in the last few years recovery has been the stubborn refusal of youth employment rates to recover from the recession:

There may a relatively simple ...


July 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1307370

Well, there is a new policy think tank in Canada and they have just released a commentary on the minimum wage. 

The Northern Policy Institute began operations over the last year (I am a member of the Research Advisory Board) with a primary mission to provide evidence based research on the ...


July 29, 2014, 9:33 am, 1307203

Money is fungible. And things get lost in translation, especially between micro and macro.

"Helicopter money" is when the central bank prints money, gives it to the government, and the government gives it to everyone, as a freebie.

When is helicopter money optimal?

Preliminary answer: almost all the time. Because almost every year, ...


July 28, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1306629

30 years ago, IIRC, my colleague Steve Ferris said I should read Lloyd Metzler's Wealth, Saving, and the Rate of Interest, because he thought it was a great paper. Yesterday Brad DeLong said the same thing. David Glasner also thinks it's a classic paper. ...


July 26, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1305984

Simon Wren-Lewis says (in response to right-deviationist David Beckworth):

"Now this does not mean that Market Monetarists and New Keynesians suddenly agree about everything. A key difference is that for David this [fiscal policy at the ZLB] is an insurance against incompetence by the central bank, whereas ...


July 24, 2014, 11:33 am, 1304745

This is very very crude. It's something off the top of my head scribbled on a scrap of paper as an outline for a first draft. But I will never go beyond that outline, because I wouldn't be any good at doing it.

The history of the Old Keynesian model is ...


July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1304034

The existence of a productivity gap between Canada and the United States should ultimately manifest itself in terms of the growth rate of real per capita GDP.  If productivity growth in Canada is consistently below that of the United States, then our real per capita GDP should also not grow ...


July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1304033

I was off at the cottage when Simon Wren-Lewis and Paul Krugman responded to my post on neo-fiscalism. Amusingly, given Simon's metaphor, the handbrake on the MX6 seized on as I was driving, slowing me down and creating a nasty smell. I did a ...


July 20, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1303747

A random question from a Stanford University PhD micro exam looks something like this:

The "Robinson Crusoe economy" is the simplest possible general equilibrium model, and ...


July 17, 2014, 11:33 am, 1302458

This is in response to the post (and associated paper) by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, David Papell, and Ruksandra Prodan (hereafter NPP) arguing for a legislated Taylor Rule in the US.

A central bank reaction function tells us how the central bank sets its monetary policy instrument (for example ...