Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”

January 19, 2017, 11:34 am, 1711904

Many macroeconomists don't like the Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply framework often used in Introductory macro textbooks. Maybe that's because it isn't explained properly. So I am going to explain it my way.

If you explain the AD/AS framework my way, you will see that it portrays a deep and realistic understanding of ...

January 13, 2017, 9:34 am, 1710294

Thomas Gunton of Simon Fraser University’s Resource and Environmental Planning Program had a piece in yesterday’s Globe and Mail raising the question if the statement of support for the Keystone XL pipeline and the approval of two other pipelines was moving Canada to a situation of surplus capacity ...

January 9, 2017, 5:34 pm, 1709046

Tony Atkinson died January 1, 2017. He was my PhD supervisor when I was at LSE in the 1980s, and we kept in touch occasionally afterwards. What follows are somepersonal reflections onhis life and his work.

Inhis youth, Tony hitchhiked around Europe. In his later years, he would give lifts to ...

January 3, 2017, 11:34 am, 1707287

Well, it’s the start of a New Year and traditionally there should be a sense of optimism to a fresh start. Indeed, at least one forecasting company feels that the global outlook for 2017 is at least stable despite the challenges of 2016 and indeed is expecting an uptick ...

December 22, 2016, 11:34 am, 1704850

The other day a colleague was explaining how SSHRC-funded Canada Graduate Scholarships are awarded at my university. "It's mostly driven by GPA," he said. "Grades in economics are so low that your students don't get a look in."

I spent some time messing around with the SSHRC awards engine. It ...

December 19, 2016, 5:34 pm, 1703925

Well, I just finished watching the federal health and finance ministers discuss the failed federal transfer health deal on the news. I suppose coming just a few days before Christmas, a dispute over federal health transfers can become a new sort of Canadian holiday tradition given it has happened before ...

December 18, 2016, 9:34 am, 1703554

"IRS" stands for "Increasing Returns to Scale". It means if you double all the inputs, you more than double the output.

I first worried that US readers might think "IRS" stands for Internal Revenue Service (the US tax people). Then I realised that I want it to stand for that too.

Staghunt ...

December 15, 2016, 11:34 am, 1702908

The Canadian Institute for Health Information has released the latest version of its annual report on public and private health expenditure at both the provincial and federal levels. As always, the CIHI provides a wealth of health data and information resources and its site is an enormous asset to ...

December 15, 2016, 9:34 am, 1702860

Sometimes I write posts about things I don't understand and want to understand. (Or don't understand very well and want to understand better.) This is one of those posts.

Suppose the government nationalises all the commercial banks, and merges them into the Bank of Canada. And suppose the Bank of Canada ...

December 14, 2016, 9:34 am, 1702505

First I am going to give you the intuition behind the model in John Cochrane's new paper. It's a very good paper, though I confess I've only skimmed it, because it's very long, and I don't understand all the math. Then I'm going to explain what ...