Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”


September 18, 2017, 7:09 pm, 1776903

Just a quickie, in response to Benjamin Vitaris' article about Warren E. Weber's Bank of Canada Working Paper (pdf) (HT Tony Yates on Twitter).

Suppose that Bitcoin totally replaces the Canadian Dollar (and every other currency) as medium of exchange. When people buy ...


September 16, 2017, 10:40 am, 1776318

It's a choice between being surprised by immediate small changes, and being surprised by warnings of much bigger future changes. A simple and maybe obvious point. I don't know if it's been made before; if not, it should have been.

The Bank of Canada has eight Fixed Announcements Dates per year. ...


September 15, 2017, 10:10 am, 1775999

I'm trying to get my head straight on something. Macro farmboy lost in Urban Economics again. Read at your own risk.

If immigration always increases real wages (or well-being), do we end up in a "corner solution", where everyone bunches together in one location leaving other locations empty? If so, that's ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774448

There are two ways of finding out how many immigrants there are in Canada. One is through administrative data, that is, by using landing records (the forms filled in when new immigrants arrive in Canada) to track immigrants. Another through survey data: to carry out a survey of a selected ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774447

The April, 2017, issue of Science has a paper by Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, and Narang on "The Fading American Dream" (ungated here). The paper documents falling income mobility. In particular, Chetty et al claim that, "the fraction of children earning more than their parents fell from 92% ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774449

How a central bank can do things with words.

Imagine a central bank with no assets and no liabilities. It does not issue money. It does not buy or sell anything. It does not regulate the commercial banks. The only thing it controls is one word in the dictionary. Every morning ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774444

This post is about national income accounting, and its dangers. Reading Simon Wren-Lewis' post about Brexit and real wages made me finally decide to try to get my head clear about something I've been meaning to get it clear about for some time. I think Simon ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774443

“Some people think that a college president’s life is full of joys and a host of friends. I know that he frequently walks in sorrow and alone because of the times he must do what seems impossible.” Paul V. Sangren (1948) “What a President Learns” Journal of Higher Education, 19, ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774445

I find this a useful way to organise my thoughts about the costs and benefits of immigration. It may work for you too. I start out with a neutral benchmark, where immigration has neither costs nor benefits for the original population. Then I think of different ways in which that ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1774446

We often long for simpler times and search for them in our not so distant past. As an economist that does public finance and economic history, the public accounts of the past can offer me an interesting diversion. Governments, at any time in history always take in revenues and make ...