May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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David Andolfatto has a very good post on "Monetary Policy Implications of Blockchain Technology". In passing (it's not a central point of his post), David says:
"However, it's worth pointing out that the leading economic theory of bank sector fragility, the
At the risk of being thought "cavalier", I don't like what Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is reported as saying by Kevin Carmichael.
Inflation targeting is supposed to be inflation forecast targeting. The Bank of Canada is supposed to do what is needed to ensure that its own ...
As we all know, Canada will be running deficits well into the foreseeable future. Based on the figures from the 2016 Federal Budget, as a percentage of GDP Canada will see its deficit go from a surplus of 0.1% in 2014 to -1.5% in 2016 and then will range from ...
I read Steve Williamson's new post. I could try and poke holes in his modelling. But it would be pointless, like a high-school debate. The disagreement is much more fundamental. I hope this is more constructive.
Inflation doesn't just happen. In a New Keynesian model, individual firms choose how ...
The central bank prints money, lends it to the government, and the government sooner or later spends it (or uses it to cut taxes or increase transfer payments).
There seem to me to be two views on this question that are equally daft:The Orthodox Daft View: "Central bank lending to government ...
WARNING: I don't do (micro) Public Finance. And I don't do experimental economics. Those who have read the literature may tell me they are well aware of these problems, or that I'm wrong about something.
Suppose someone asked me to design an experiment to test whether Basic Income would be a ...
Accounting can be fun.
Helicopter Bonds is when the government prints some bonds and drops them out of a helicopter, so whoever picks up the bonds now owns them. It's identical to a bond-financed lump-sum transfer payment. It's identical to a bond-financed lump-sum tax cut (because only net taxes=taxes-transfers matter). The ...
The shocks in a random walk process are permanent. That does not mean it is impossible for a positive shock to be followed by a negative shock. It does mean it is equally likely that a positive shock will be followed by a positive shock as by a negative shock. ...
Just a thought-experiment that's been running through my head.
You are a saver and lender. You take some of the money you have earned as income, that you don't want to spend yourself, and lend it to people who want to borrow so they can spend it instead of you. Suppose ...
If Canada's Employment Insurance program was designed solely to insure workers against the loss of employment, it would look very different.
For one thing, the premiums that employees and employers contribute would go towards paying benefits to people who have lost their jobs. But in 2013/14 - the most recent year for which I can ...