May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”
In the 1960s, my mother's monthly family allowance cheque paid for a week's groceries.
I am going to give what I think is the intuition behind John Cochrane's paper (pdf), that is the subject of his recent post. (Or maybe what I'm doing is reverse-engineering his model's results.) The key result of his paper is the "Neo-Fisherian" finding that an ...
The federal government has announced that, once the budget is in balance, its first priority will be "to provide tax relief to hard-working Canadian families."
In 2013, the federal deficit had shrunk to $13 billion. This year it may disappear entirely.
But it does not follow that the federal government ...
Ultimately all economics is local. Ontario municipalities are in the final throes of a municipal election race and in my own community the question of municipal economic development via public sector construction spending has come up. The concern is that much of the economic activity in my community over the ...
Suppose I lend you $1,000, at 0% interest. But I warn you that as soon as you spend that $1,000, or lend it to someone else to spend, I will immediately make you repay the loan, or else raise the interest rate high enough to make you regret spending it ...
I would imagine that the name Kenneth Carter is not well known outside of a narrow range of economic specialists and accountants working in the tax or public finance area. Kenneth Carter was appointed in 1962 by a Conservative Prime Minister â€“ John Diefenbaker â€“ to examine and report on ...
Suppose, just suppose, that everyone knows that the price level will be exactly 100 in 2084. (That's 70 years from now, to keep the math simple). Because in 2084 the central bank will redeem all the outstanding notes, in exchange for real goods, at a price of 100. ...
I feel I ought to know the answer to this question. But I don't.
Suppose that demand this period Y(t) depends on the interest rate this period r(t), and on the expected interest rate next period E[r(t+1)], and on a vector of other stuff X(t).
Y(t) = D(r(t), E[r(t+1)], X(t))
Adding the expected ...
If I read Stephen Poloz correctly, the Bank of Canada will not normally be doing forward guidance in the future. But it will use forward guidance in an emergency. I do not clearly understand Steve's reasoning (see section 7 of his discussion paper), but I think this is ...