Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”

October 27, 2016, 9:34 am, 1687358

You decide to make a new monetary system from scratch. You give everyone a chequing account on your computer, with an initial balance of 0 units. If Andy buys bananas from Betty and pays her 100 units, Betty now has a positive balance and Andy now has a negative balance. ...

October 24, 2016, 11:34 am, 1686158

Here is the number of new permanent residents to Canada, as a percentage of the existing population, over time:

"New permanent residents" is not a perfect ...

October 22, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1685851

Canada is, as far as countries go, relatively cold and sparsely populated. Our houses are large by global standards, and we drive a fair amount. We are rich enough to consume a lot of stuff. These factors, together with the oil sands, mean that we have one of the world's ...

October 20, 2016, 9:33 am, 1685245

Last August, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that, in future, only candidates who are "functionally bilingual" in French and English will be recommended for positions on the Supreme Court of Canada. With the information released subsequent to the nomination of Malcolm Rowe to the Court, we now have some sense ...

October 18, 2016, 9:34 am, 1684534

Chris Dillow says that economics is like literature. Maybe it is, and maybe it isn't. But if it is literature, economics needs more science fiction. Paradoxically, imagining radically different worlds can help us understand better how the actual world works, as well as helping us consider policy alternatives.

Imagine ...

October 16, 2016, 11:33 am, 1684041

I think Stephen Gordon's Project Link and its piecing together of fragments of Statistics Canada data is a solid step in the right direction.  If our national statistical agency is not going to provide long-term consistent data series, then I suppose its up to the researchers to lead the ...

October 14, 2016, 9:33 am, 1683664

I've already ranted a couple of times - here and here - about Statistics Canada's 'Attention Deficit Disorder': its habit of starting new time series using new methodologies without updating the historical data. As I put it in my first rant,

Statistics Canada must be ...

October 13, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1683402

The Canada Research Chair program has a long-standing gender problem.

Way back in 2002, the CRC Secretariat commissioned a gender-based analysis of the program which concluded: 

  There are several sub-disciplines/fields where women are under represented among the Canada Research Chair nominees. In part, this may be due to ...

October 5, 2016, 11:34 am, 1681085

In 1953 the Canadian Geographical Society published a glossy black-and-white volume called "Image of Canada." It has the usual inspiring pictures of Saskatchewan wheat fields and Toronto ...

October 4, 2016, 9:33 am, 1680675

Start with a bog-standard second-year textbook Mundell-Fleming ISLMBP model. Start in equilibrium at Y*, then hit it with a negative shock to Net eXports. The IS curve shifts left initially, at the previous equilibrium exchange rate. But the central bank is sensible, and allows the exchange rate to depreciate sufficiently ...