Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

"Who would have thought an economics blog could be this exciting?”

November 29, 2015, 11:34 am, 1583254

Speculative, as Tyler Cowen would say.

When people play the Dictator Game they don't play the way economists would predict. The Nash Equilibrium is for the first player to propose a 99:1 division of the pie take-it-or-leave-it offer, and the second player to accept. Because 1% is better than ...

November 26, 2015, 1:34 pm, 1582576

The traditional student presentation format - ten minutes of powerpoint, two minutes of questions - rarely works well. After three or four presentations, a good chunk of the audience zones out. Getting a good discussion going is hard - and there isn't time for an extended conversation anyways. Then there ...

November 23, 2015, 7:34 pm, 1581013

If we had one central market, with a Walrasian auctioneer, where all goods are traded simultaneously for each other, none of this would matter. But we don't; so it does.

Partial equilibrium theorists don't need to know this stuff. People who believe prices are always at market-clearing levels don't need to ...

November 16, 2015, 11:33 am, 1577068

This post was written by Carolyn Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada.

During the Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes wrote “It’s astonishing what foolish things one can temporarily believe if one thinks too long alone, particularly in economics.”

Today, this is truer than ever, and ...

November 15, 2015, 9:33 am, 1576676

FWIW. Since everyone else seems to be doing this.

1. There are n different types on labour.

2. Each individual has an endowment of one type of labour, and wants to trade some of it for some of the other types of labour.

3. But (double) coincidence of wants is rare, so they ...

November 12, 2015, 11:33 am, 1575435

Economists aren't exactly noted for their expertise in Cultural Studies (I think that's what I'm doing here), but I'm going to give it a go.

The fact that the Arthurian legend still resonates 1,500 years later tells us something about people, their hopes and fears. According to ...

November 9, 2015, 7:33 am, 1573047

I don't do micro. Can somebody please find me some simple accessible link that explains "the core" and its relation to competitive equilibrium? Thanks. This one (pdf) has got too much math for me to understand.

Suppose you have an economic model with (say) two types of people. Let's ...

November 7, 2015, 9:33 am, 1572054

I hear that a lot of people want to migrate to...Finland. I'm pretty sure it's not because they like Finland's climate, or scenery. I don't think it's got anything to do with the physical geography of Finland. I think that they want to move to Finland because they like Finland's ...

November 6, 2015, 7:34 am, 1571402

I've been trying to get my head around this over the last few days. Still not sure I'm there yet.

But anyway:

It seems to me that the effect of fiscal policy at the Zero Lower Bound in New Keynesian models is extremely sensitive to timing the exit. This isn't about finding ...

November 5, 2015, 7:33 am, 1570611

Macroeconomics is divided into (short run) business cycle theory and (long run) growth theory.

Those of us who do business cycle theory have a bit of an inferiority complex (though you might not know it from listening to us argue). Because growth theory seems to be so much more important. Where ...