January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Before I can experience Spring Break 2014, I will be heading off to Charleston, SC for the Public Choice Society annual meetings. I return to NoVA on Sunday and will being Spring Break -- hopefully all the snow will melt while I am in SC. I have ...
Joe Salerno publically called me out to explain my position on how a scientific/scholarly discipline advances and the role that private funding plays. He also asks me to contemplate a counter-factual of my own career if there was no private funding available.
In reply, I will stay away ...
New issue of the Review of Austrian Economics in now available, it consists of a symposium edited by Adam Martin and Geoffrey Lea addressing the relationship between Austrian economics and the Virginia School of Political Economy.
Back in the 1980s, I wrote a paper "Virgina ...
As an undergraduate one of the most amazing intellectual experiences of my life was reading Murray Rothbard's For a New Liberty. I had already read Milton and Rose Friedman's Free to Choose, Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson, and various articles and some books of Ludwig von Mises, so I ...
John Maynard Keynes famously argued in The General Theory that practical men who believe themselves to be devoid of the influence of academic scribblers are in fact "usually the slaves of some defunct economist." This was good rhetoric on Keynes's part primarily to emphasize to his readers how ...
Adam Smith in discussing man's propensity to 'truck, barter and exchange' famously said: "Nobody ever saw a dog make a fair and deliberate exchange of one bone for another with another dog." We humans are social creatures, we talk, we haggle, we trade.
Our ability to thrive and ...
Last night in my graduate seminar on comparative institutional analysis we discussed Ronald Coase's 1991 Nobel Lecture -- "The Institutional Structure of Production." If you haven't read it recently, read it again carefully. Coase is the master economic theory minimalist, and one of the most ...
Hayek's The Constitution of Liberty was an effort to first develop an argument philosophically and historically for the institutional superiority of the "rule of law" in promoting peaceful social cooperation and productive specialization among free individuals, and then second to apply the "rule of law" to areas of ...
Israel M. Kirzner was born on February 13, 1930 in London. He is, in my opinion, the greatest scholar of the Austrian School of Economics. As evidence I would point to his The Economic Point of View, and his introductions to the collection, Classics ...
I have said before, and I will say it again, to economists of my generation Joe Stiglitz is a towering figure in economic theory. But despite my great respect and admiration for his intellect and the argumentative strategy that he pursued with respect to the Walrasian system, ...