Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376366
I was given the chance to speak for 5 minutes yesterday at a public event.  Unlike the other speakers, I stuck to my time limit and tried to give a punchy talk about the Future of Los Angeles.  The event took at place at Prof. Thom Mayne's studio called ...

November 22, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1376365
Paul Romer serves as the Director of NYU's Marron Institute of Urban Management.   I am a Visiting Scholar at this Institute and try to show up there twice a year.   The Institute has just posted my new Working Paper titled: Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from ...

November 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1375208
Suppose that upstate New York has a snow blizzard.   What types of workers produce the
same level of output on such a day?   I recognize that guys who operate snow plows are more productive on those days!   But, there more and more indoor workers who are just ...

November 19, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1374624
Professor Jeff Reimer was kind enough to send me a great example of ingenuity at work to protect natural capital in the Pacific Northwest.  Julian Simon would respect  the salmon cannon.  This video from Last Week from John Oliver tells the story.

November 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1374329
I have read that it is quite cold in Chicago right now.  Cold winters can kill.  How do we protect the urban poor against such climate shocks?  Cook County Chicago has opened up Warming Centers.   Many shut by 5pm and I'm not sure where people are supposed ...

November 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1374328
An honest discussion is now taking place concerning the unintended consequences of limiting new construction.   Paris hasn't allowed many high rise buildings to be built. Would Paris continue to be "Paris" if there were Hong Kong style buildings?   Everyone appreciates the basic prediction of econ 101 that ...

November 18, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1373868
Tomorrow, the WSJ will publish an editorial called "China's Environmental Whitewash".  Here is a quote from their piece that mentions me:

"This is the context for Supreme Leader Xi Jinping ’s pledge last week “to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030,” which has U.S. officials rejoicing ...

November 18, 2014, 1:33 am, 1373167
The Grateful Dead once asked; "Where Does the Time Go?"    Permit me to offer a time diary for today;

1.  I woke up early and worked on a submission for Chuck Mason's journal.  The paper is now titled;  Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Economics.

2. ...

November 16, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1372479
I attended Hamilton College in the mid 1980s.  Utica, at that time, was a depressing declining place.  This article in the NY Times suggests that things haven't changed.  Wikipedia says that its population has declined by 38% since 1930.    Could climate change change that?

With ...

November 15, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1372171
Joe Romm unintentionally poses an interesting question here .   He focuses on the carbon production implications of the Keystone Pipeline.  He is right to raise the old issue that if the oil in the Canada tar sands stays in the ground then this will reduce global GHG emissions.   ...