Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Environmental and Urban Economics


July 25, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1305810
As I walk the streets of Berkeley, CA,  I hear many chickens clucking away.  Today, the NY Times presents a video profile of my Hamilton College classmate Robert McMinn.   I see that after 26 years he hasn't changed!  He has his hair and his chickens.  Time has not been ...


July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303997
Ice melts when temperature exceeds 32 F.  Many Canadian kids have practiced hockey on frozen outdoor ponds and lakes. If climate change warms winters, will the quality of NHL hockey suffer?  This article says "yes".    An economist might posit that indoor hockey rinks are a close substitute for ...


July 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303996
At the University of Chicago, I was taught human capital theory by several future Nobel Laureates and Clark Medalists (Becker, Heckman, Murphy) and by a man who would have won a Nobel Prize.  None of these scholars ever mentioned the link between human capital and environmental economics.  


July 20, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1303755
For some pessimism about quality of life in the year 2393 read this blog entry by Joe Romm.  He indicts free markets ideology with encouraging an individualism that chips away at collective action solutions. In the absence of a collective solution such as a global carbon tax, he argues ...


July 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303728
NBA basketball players know their age, their contract's terms and the likely length of their playing career, and they can form a good guess of their post-career earnings.  Why isn't this information sufficient for planning one's lifetime consumption so that one saves while earning the high salary and lives off ...


July 19, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1303529
On July 5th and 6th, Ed Glaeser and I participated in a large Shanghai conference at a very elegant Howard Johnson Hotel.   Throughout the conference, a Lamborghini sports car was parked in front of the hotel. It did not belong to me.  Here my slides for my Shanghai ...


July 19, 2014, 1:33 am, 1303405
This REPEC index converts each economist's output (measured in 38 different categories) over the last ten years into a single index that can sorted so that 40600 registered economists are ranked.   I'm ranked #340 but I still will complain that three of my books and about 25 of ...


July 17, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1302808
It has been reported that a $35,000 Tesla make will be sold in the year 2017.  How will the expectation that you can buy this make in the medium term affect the pricing of Tesla vehicles today?   The Coase Conjecture would predict that Tesla will have to drop its ...


July 17, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1302682
I have been outside of the USA for 37 days.  I went from Italy to Croatia to Turkey to Israel to China.    On Blue Sky days, I saw amazing islands as I flew from Israel to France (on my way to China). In  Turkey, I had the chance to ...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295861
This is my last blog post for 3 weeks so I will leave you with a deep thought about LinkedIn connections.  I'm wondering if the rate of progress in economics would double if LinkedIn would stop sending all of us crazy emails that take time to contemplate and respond to. ...