Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Environmental and Urban Economics


June 26, 2016, 9:33 pm, 1648664
London has long featured extremely high housing prices and has been ranked with New York City and San Fran and Los Angeles and Paris as one of the world's most desirable cities.  Post-Brexit, will London lose this elite status?  This raises the issue of what productive and amenity attributes of ...


June 25, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1648443
The New York Times has some fun mocking Don Trump today.   Here is a quote from this piece. "At one point, Mr. Trump even compared his renovation of Trump Turnberry to how he is hoping to overhaul the United States. When a reporter pointed out — correctly — that ...


June 24, 2016, 1:34 pm, 1648266
The NY Times reports that the old in the UK support leaving the EU while the young wanted to stay remain in the EU.  As the large set of Baby Boomers ages (and keeps voting because they are living longer), what other policies will they vote for?  Demography's impact ...


June 24, 2016, 11:33 am, 1648220
While environmentalists sometimes celebrate ingenuity in turning waste into a productive input, the NY Times reports a case where this approach may have been taken too far.


June 23, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1648002
During my years on the UCLA faculty, I made many friends across the University.  Rick Sander is one of them.   Today, his work faces criticism in this NY Times piece by Richard Lempert.    Dr. Sander has argued that affirmative action in university admissions policy has the unintended consequence ...


June 23, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1647960
Professor Nordhaus started the political business cycles literature many years ago.   As I read about Elon Musk's running up a lot of debt as he tries to push Tesla forward, will he go bust under anti-climate change Republican Presidents?   Can you become rich shorting Tesla right ...


June 22, 2016, 9:33 pm, 1647725
This is an interesting article.  Researchers are spreading the news that rapid climate change in Africa may sharply reduce maize yields.


June 20, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1647010
"Crowding Out" is a powerful economic idea.  When I taught at UCLA, I worried that private donations to this public university were low because potential donors worried that for every $ they gave to UCLA that the governor would give a dollar less to UCLA and instead give it ...


June 20, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1646994
I am very sad to learn that Prof. Phoebus Dhrymes has recently passed away.   We were colleagues at Columbia from 1993 to 1996 and from 1998 to 2000.  He was a highly skilled econometrician who wrote comprehensive econometrics textbooks.   I would ask him econometrics questions and he ...


June 20, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1646896
Do leaders matter for determining economic growth?  A New York Times OP-Ed writer claims "not really" in this piece.  In contrast,  Ben Jones and Ben Olken argue using cross-national econometric evidence that "leaders matter" (especially in autocratic states).    I'd like to make a couple of points;