Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

February 7, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1606186
The World Bank has released a 227 page report that you can download here.  The report focuses on poverty and climate change.  Here is the report's abstract

"Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the ...

February 3, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1605143
Paul Krugman wrote a very optimistic blog entry the other day arguing that renewable power will just keep getting cheaper and thus the "price" of mitigating climate change risk keeps falling.   He makes the reasonable argument that a risk averse people who are increasingly aware of the known ...

February 1, 2016, 9:33 pm, 1604297
I look at the black line (which removes the annual cycle) below of global  CO2 concentration over the years 2011 to 2015 and I see a straight line rising over time.

At ...

February 1, 2016, 11:33 am, 1604114
At the World Bank, today a 19 minute power point presentation was replayed.  Given that I have a head cold, my keynote video was played at the urbanization conference.   You can watch my You Tube video here.   In this brief talk, I present a vision for how to ...

January 31, 2016, 11:33 am, 1603871
It is Sunday and the NY Times has little substantive content.  So, I turn to the Sports Section and I stumble upon a long article focused on behavioral economics and the sport fan's pursuit of a free t-shirt at live events.  Does this cannon look familiar to you?  Did ...

January 30, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1603737
One of my Chinese co-authors asked me a simple question over coffee yesterday.  "What is your 5 year plan?"   I'm usually not at a loss for words but this question caught me off guard and I paused to think and I'm still thinking.  As you know, the Chinese take ...

January 28, 2016, 11:33 am, 1602983
The environmental economic journal REEP has a "reflections" section where economists write about their views on an important research literature.   I have just published a paper in REEP on the emerging micro economics and adaptation literature.     I focus on three areas of research in my piece.  Here ...

January 27, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1602723
Suppose Don Trump wins.  Which economists will be invited to be leading members of his Administration?  What cognitive and non-cognitive traits would they need to succeed in getting his attention?  What does Don Trump think of academic economists?  This Politico article suggests that he plans to ignore 200 years ...

January 25, 2016, 9:33 pm, 1601930
The NY Times asks just the right question in this article.  As gas prices decline, will the world's consumers now revert to buying fuel inefficient large safe vehicles?  Will governments around the world have the guts to raise gas taxes?   Do you remember my blog post from ...

January 25, 2016, 11:33 am, 1601755
Paul Krugman has written an excellent book review of Robert Gordon's new pessimistic book  about the future of economic growth.  Ed Glaeser also wrote an excellent review for the WSJ last week.
Krugman provides a great life sketch as he compares progress in daily quality of life ...