Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

October 18, 2014, 1:33 am, 1353328
Simon Dietz and Nicholas Stern have a new paper celebrating the Nordhaus Model for measuring the cost of climate change.  I would like to discuss their equation (4) on page 10 of the paper.

Environmental economists who do CGE modeling continue to introduce a damage parameter such that ...

October 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1352252
In the NY Times Style Section, there is an interesting article about the shifting balance of power within California.   The Hollywood Moguls traveled to Silicon Valley because they know that the real $ is there.  What are the gains to trade between Hollywood and Silicon Valley?

The Cliche ...

October 15, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1351954
The beach community of Santa Monica has a small airport where rich guys land their private planes.  All airports take up a lot of room and this one may be 230 acres of land within 3 miles of the beach.  More facts about the airport are here.   Is this ...

October 13, 2014, 11:33 am, 1350217
The NY Times reports that a major cyclone hit India and as of now reports that 2 people died.  Here is a direct quote from the article's  final paragraph:

"More than 10,000 people were killed 15 years ago when a cyclone hit roughly the same area, but in ...

October 11, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1349652
I wonder if Paul Ehrlich will read Ruth Defries' new book titled The Big Ratchet.  In today's WSJ, she expresses a fair bit of optimism about human's ability to adapt to new challenges.   Here is a WSJ review where she embraces the induced innovation hypothesis.

October 10, 2014, 11:33 am, 1349185
President Obama is in my part of Los Angeles looking for $ and connecting with old friends.   The NY Times reports that he spoke at a fundraiser at Ms. Paltrow's home.  Here are some direct quotes from the article:

 Gwyneth Paltrow struggled to hold herself back ...

October 10, 2014, 11:33 am, 1349184
The NY Times has written a long article that implicitly expresses its surprise that intellectuals in Beijing have not endorsed the protests in Hong Kong.  The NY Times hints that the Beijing residents are "brainwashed" and do not know that Western democracy would be good for them.   Several ...

October 7, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1347636
This paper examines how productivity in Indian manufacturing firms is affected by outdoor temperature.   As reported in Table 1, controlling for many fixed effects a plant's output falls by 6% when the outdoor temperature is over 25 degrees Celsius as compared to what the plant's output is predicted ...

October 6, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1346922
Skim this article about the city of Makeni in Sierra Leone and you will start thinking about the negative consequences of urban population density as Ebola spreads.   I realize that this city faces the double whammy of poverty and population density but suppose that Ebola started to spread ...

October 4, 2014, 11:33 am, 1346015
Many progressive thinkers celebrate public space (such as Manhattan's Central Park) as an example of public goods that can be shared by large numbers of people.  Such outdoor leisure leads to new friendships and serendipitous meetings of strangers in the big city.  Others (perhaps Don Trump) prefer private spaces that ...