Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

October 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1359232
On Thursday, hundreds of economists will return to the University of Chicago to celebrate Gary Becker's contributions.   I have not been back to UC for a year now but I'm looking forward to seeing my old friends, and the Department's new building.  

I was a student ...

October 27, 2014, 11:33 am, 1358274
Many graduates of the University of Chicago will return at the end of this week to celebrate Gary Becker's contributions to Economics and to building up the University of Chicago.  Their next generation of economists have big shoes to fill.   Given Gary's focus on human capital, it is fitting ...

October 26, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1357968
From a public health perspective, it makes sense to quarantine potentially Ebola infected people but who has the property rights here?  Imagine a world where people have the right to not be quarantined. In this case, society would need to pay them for each of the 21 days we seek ...

October 26, 2014, 9:33 am, 1357878
The New York Times sketches that local officials in Florida are stepping up and enacting policies to reduce their area's exposure to emerging climate change risk.   Back in 2010, I published my Climatopolis book that offered a broad sketch of how city growth and city competition will ...

October 26, 2014, 9:33 am, 1357877
I have recently read biographies of the Late Night Comic Johnny Carson and the guitarist Joe Perry.    Carson's book is written by his ex-lawyer.

Carson hired Henry Bushkin when Bushkin was a young man and Carson was already famous.   Carson expected 100% completely loyalty and ...

October 25, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1357750
The Growth Accounting crew wants to talk about the coming slowdown in China's economic growth.   As I walk UCLA's campus, I see thousands of Chinese students enrolled seeking to learn and planning to return home.  What is the net effect of this investment in human capital on China's future ...

October 25, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1357725
I have vanished for a while but now I'm back to offer a few thoughts.

1.  The Ebola case in NYC offers an interesting test of self protection theory.  When the sick doctor checked into Bellevue there was a sudden surge in Bellevue Staff taking sick days.   ...

October 18, 2014, 1:33 am, 1353328
Simon Dietz and Nicholas Stern have a new paper celebrating the Nordhaus Model for measuring the cost of climate change.  I would like to discuss their equation (4) on page 10 of the paper.

Environmental economists who do CGE modeling continue to introduce a damage parameter such that ...

October 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1352252
In the NY Times Style Section, there is an interesting article about the shifting balance of power within California.   The Hollywood Moguls traveled to Silicon Valley because they know that the real $ is there.  What are the gains to trade between Hollywood and Silicon Valley?

The Cliche ...

October 15, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1351954
The beach community of Santa Monica has a small airport where rich guys land their private planes.  All airports take up a lot of room and this one may be 230 acres of land within 3 miles of the beach.  More facts about the airport are here.   Is this ...