Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

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The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

September 27, 2017, 3:25 pm, 1780124
The methodology  yields this ranking.

Top 20
1. Harvard

September 27, 2017, 3:25 pm, 1780125
The methodology  yields this ranking.

Top 20
1. Harvard

September 24, 2017, 2:36 pm, 1778892
Given the recent discussion about women's opportunities in Silicon Valley and in academic economics, I took a look at my own record.  I have published six books.  I wrote 4 by myself and 2 with co-authors.  Both of my co-authors (Dora Costa) and (Siqi Zheng) are women. ...

September 14, 2017, 3:25 pm, 1775679
The USC Daily Trojan has published an article that I like.  I moved from UCLA to USC because I saw the private university's momentum and ambition.  My department's goal is to be as good as our football team.  The University aspires to be Stanford.  That's a good goal and ...

September 14, 2017, 12:36 pm, 1775563
Erin Mansur and I have a well cited 2013 JPUBE paper documenting that energy intensive firms cluster where energy prices are low (the paper has several other ideas!).  Siqi Zheng, Jianfeng Wu and Weizeng Sun and I have a 2017 JUE paper studying China's industrial parks.  In these ...

September 13, 2017, 12:36 pm, 1774997
As I read the NYT and WSJ, I see similar stories that the Big Data Smart Phone era reduced the suffering caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma as people used their phones to "trade with each other" such that private first responders saved many people.  Permit me to ask an ...

September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772340
Dr Krugman tweeted this.   I am not smart enough to completely see his thoughts embodied in these 140 characters but I am going to try because this raises a fundamental issue in urban economics.  Below, I reproduce his cross-U.S city graph of log population density as a function of ...

September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772339
Amazon will soon choose a new location for building its 2nd headquarters.  Chicago may be chosen.  The winning city will receive an influx of high paying jobs and this will boost housing prices, human capital, restaurant demand and tax revenues.  Cities are competing by offering tax breaks.  Will Winner's ...

September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772338
Dating at least back to Dennis Carlton's 1983 RESTAT paper,   economists have written down an indirect profit equation that measures a given firm's profit if it locates in a given geographic area such as Chicago or Nashville.  Suppose there are 87 of these different locations.  A profit maximizing firm ...

September 12, 2017, 1:15 pm, 1772337
On my twitter feed today, I stumbled across this very interesting (and depressing) post by Claudia Sahm. MIT's great Peter Temin wrote this piece about "culture" 20 years ago.   He discusses Alberto Bisin's early work on culture.   Here is a great Vox EU piece by Bisin on ...