Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

April 16, 2014, 1:33 am, 1256152
The China Daily  reports that foreign firms in China are seeking out 2nd and 3rd tier Chinese cities that feature blue skies because Beijing is just too polluted.  The introduction of a competitive system of cities would make urban China an even stronger nation.  The centralization of the powerful government ...

April 14, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1255525
The NY Times  reports that there are many liberal cities where the median rent divided by the median household income is greater than 30%.  The Times interprets this fact that the middle class can't afford to live in a series of cities ranging from Los Angeles, to Miami to San ...

April 13, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1254981
An old literature in economics states that only "new news" moves markets.  Do the recent IPCC reports say anything new?  Those who know that climate change is a major challenge "learn" that they were right.  Those who deny that climate change is happening or believe that we will adapt to ...

April 13, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1254958
While the NY Times covers new IPCC reports with front page stories,  Google Trends reveals that the rest of the world isn't listening.  Look at this graph below.  From 2007, do you see a time series trend down? Why?

April 11, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1254566
My tenure at UCLA is at the Institute of the Environment.   This Institute conducts research and offers many undergraduate classes focused on the intersection of environmental science and environmental policy.   Yesterday, it was announced that the UCLA School of Law is launching the Emmett Institute on Climate ...

April 10, 2014, 11:33 am, 1253705
Civic leaders in Los Angeles have released a reasonable new report listing action items for improving the city's economic performance and quality of life.  Here is a link to the LA Times article about it.

I must say that the report's first two policy proposals are ...

April 10, 2014, 1:33 am, 1253417
I will be in Virginia next Thursday and in Georgia on Friday.   I'm grateful to my friends at James Madison University's Economics Department for giving me the chance to speak about my Climatopolis book.  When I published it back in 2010, it wasn't cool to be thinking about ...

April 10, 2014, 1:33 am, 1253416
Could you live happily in this home?  It is .7 miles away from my house and you can live in this 27,000 square feet of interior space for just $25 million bucks.   If you are considering being my neighbor, click here for a virtual house tour.

April 9, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1253117
The UCLA Anderson Forecast's report about the dismal conditions in the City of Los Angeles' labor market is of interest to the Wall Street Journal.     As the new Mayor reads this article, what will he think?   What he won't want to acknowledge is that a combination ...

April 9, 2014, 1:33 am, 1252744
This NY Times piece about motivating both liberals and conservatives to engage on climate change is worth reading.   Back in the 1990s, applied economists wrestled with the general issue of what exogenous variables have a monotonic impact on raising the probability of taking a given action.  See