Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

August 28, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1668234
When it was announced that Gary Becker won the Nobel Prize in Economics, there was a press conference at the University of Chicago.  At that October 1992 conference, he stated at the start of the event that he would not answer questions related to issues far from his research (such ...

August 27, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1668092
The NY Times is creating a "green job" as it will hire a new climate change editor.  Given that Dora and I have written a recent paper on how the NY Times covered the urban mortality transition from 1890 to 1930, I will offer this important newspaper some unsolicited ...

August 27, 2016, 11:33 am, 1668074
Paul Krugman is correct and Mr. Trump is wrong.  Quality of life has never been better in American center cities.  Of course, Mr. Trump knows that his section of Manhattan is doing great. His real estate there is worth more than ever.  From simple supply and demand, given the ...

August 27, 2016, 1:33 am, 1668031
I have always greatly admired the work of Davis and Haltiwanger on gross employment flows.   Dora Costa and I have some new work up and going on Federal and local government employment dynamics.  Take a look at our new figure below.  This figure is my homage to Davis ...

August 26, 2016, 11:33 am, 1667889
The LA Times has written an informative piece describing new real estate construction in downtown LA paid for and constructed by Chinese investor teams.   This piece raises several interesting economic points.  Only in the recent past, "Made in China" was viewed as a signal of low quality.  I ...

August 24, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1667311
Imagine a scenario in which you must choose whether to invest $500,000 in a sunk investment in a new house (that will live on for 40 years and then turn to dust) overlooking a beautiful body of water.  Based  on the last 500 years of data, there is a 1% ...

August 20, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1666179
John Schwartz has published a front page "article" on the NY Times business page claiming that Exxon has huge problem because it owns billions of dollars of assets (oil) that will be a stranded asset in the near future.     This is an interesting claim.  He is hinting ...

August 20, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1666178
This 2015 Scientific American Article  presents evidence that Exxon was aware back in the 1970s that the use of its product contributed to global warming.   Despite its knowledge about the consequences of burning oil, it paid researchers who wrote reports spreading "climate misinformation".   Now attorney generals are ...

August 19, 2016, 11:33 am, 1665948
Robert Catell has written a great OP-ED for the NY Times that captures another reason why I'm a proud Californian.   California's Air Resources Board (ARB) has a mandate to reduce the state's ambient air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector.  The ARB is enacting new ...

August 18, 2016, 5:33 pm, 1665735
The US government paid Iran $400 million dollars to guarantee the survival of 4 Americans.   So, my calculation suggests that the U.S government values a statistical life at $100 million.  This is a lot larger than the $7 million that is the standard number used in government ...