Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

May 21, 2015, 9:33 am, 1478351
Today, I'm at Drexel University speaking at this sustainability event  and Tuesday I return to the LSE to talk about my China research.     Yesterday, I learned a good lesson about Uber. You never know who you are going to meet.  A Hollywood Movie Star drove me to ...

May 19, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1477426
The City of Los Angeles is raising its minimum wage to $15 an hour.    Do David Neumark and David Card agree on the consequences of this well intended policy?  Neumark's papers on this subject are listed here.   Card's research on this subject is available here.   The ...

May 19, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1477265
In the aftermath of the Amtrak train disaster, railroad unions are demanding that a second engineer ride in each train.   This poses an interesting public policy question related to behavioral economics.  A second engineer would be costly to hire and the union would love to have more well ...

May 17, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1475960
The NY Times has published a long pseudo-Freudian piece about the respective legacies of Gov. Pat Brown of California and his son Gov. Jerry Brown (the current leader of California).   In a nutshell,  Pat was the leader during a time of growth and optimism.  He liked people and ...

May 17, 2015, 11:33 am, 1475941
Dora Costa and I have just published an urban economics piece about the trends in the geography of health inequality in major U.S cities 100 years ago.  Here is the source: AER May 2015 Papers and Proceedings piece.

Here is our Intro

Today, there is great interest ...

May 16, 2015, 11:33 am, 1475681
Sisters meet for the first time at a Columbia University writing seminar.

Entourage and the declining influence of CAA and WMA?

Desalinization as a tool for augmenting California's water supply during drought ;  challenges posed by environmentalists

FAO Schwartz leaves 5th Avenue  --- ...

May 16, 2015, 1:33 am, 1475557
I will teach undergraduate Environmental Economics at USC this fall.  If you click here,  you will see that my class enrollment is capped at 40 students and each of my students will have already taken intermediate micro.    After having taught 120 person enviro econ classes at UCLA where ...

May 15, 2015, 1:33 am, 1474946
Today, UC's President Janet Napolitano distributed a letter which features some very good news for the University of California.   Instate tuition will remain frozen at roughly $12,000 per year and Governor Brown will provide the UC with extra $.  This deal opens up the "win win" of providing ...

May 14, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1474585
As we celebrate the publication of Richard Thaler's excellent Misbehaving,  must neo-classical economists surrender and apologize for our long embrace of Mr. Spock and forward looking investment in the face of uncertainty?   Today in the NY Times, an economist named Kevin Simmons  helps the "rebel alliance" to launch ...

May 13, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1473837
Back in the 1990s, Owen Lamont wrote this paper about the incentives of macro forecasters over their life-cycle.   One theory (which I believe he rejects) is that young forecasters seek to stand out in a crowd and they announce a "crazed" prediction (the Dow Jones Industrial Average will rise ...