Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental and Urban Economics

October 8, 2015, 11:33 am, 1555249
The Harvard Crimson has published a long piece about the current state of the Harvard Econ Department.   Two challenges are pointed to: the departure of Raj Chetty to Stanford (along with the recent loss of Athey, Imbens and Roth --- all to Stanford) and the fact that Littauer ...

October 7, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1554824
If Governor Brown is still in power in 15 years, he can be held accountable for committing California to generate 50% of its power from zero carbon sources (nuclear?) by the year 2030.  While environmentalists celebrate this new law, is this a free lunch? How costly is "this lunch"?

October 7, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1554658
The NY Times provides a geography lesson today.  Readers learn about Fushun China.  While the article is quite strong, it wants to tell a cautionary tale of what happens to an area that specializes in resource extraction once the resources "run dry".   China has used a huge amount ...

October 7, 2015, 11:33 am, 1554574
The NY Times reports that  President Obama seeks to tap into private charity to generate more funds for Syrian migrant refugees.

"Visitors to the site, which is better known for helping inventors and filmmakers, can contribute $15 to buy a sleeping bag, $70 for an emergency rescue kit, ...

October 5, 2015, 9:33 am, 1553244
The NY Times reports that the Fed had a big macro conference and some very famous economists agreed that they don't know how to stop the next financial crisis.    Here, I briefly sketch how to do so at low cost and with minimal moral hazard effects.

Step ...

October 4, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1553053
The Manhattan Institute has just published a free e-book that anyone who cares about cities will gain at least $20 in consumer surplus from reading!  Your free copy is available here.  As usual, Ed Glaeser played a key leadership in putting this volume together.  He and Ingrid ...

October 2, 2015, 11:33 am, 1552463
Read this article about how New Jersey is getting prepared to cope with the new hurricane. Memories of Hurricane Sandy have a silver lining.  People in New Jersey and government officials are preparing for this shock and it will cause less damage because of their preparations. This is free ...

October 1, 2015, 9:33 am, 1551775
Neil Irwin has written an interesting piece about the UK's Mark Carney.   This important banker is worried about the future impact of climate change on risk exposure for banks. Permit me to supply one quote before I start to analyze his remarks.

Irwin writes:

"More subtly, ...

September 29, 2015, 11:33 am, 1550675
Recent news reports have focused on VW's Emissions cheating scandal.  The fully story is available here.  For those interested in the costs and benefits of regulation, this case study reveals information about the cost of environmental regulation.  VW must have viewed this regulation as very costly to comply with. ...

September 27, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1549858
Each Sunday I read David Warsh's piece.  This week's column reports a strange quote from Harvard's Larry Summers.

David Warsh writes;

"Summers hinted at how his thinking had changed when he told an audience at a meeting of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Bretton ...