Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Environmental and Urban Economics


January 18, 2017, 7:33 pm, 1711705
I am listening to Jimi Hendrix and I'm trying to think about predictions I'm willing to make about environmental regulation under President Trump.  Both Don Trump and I both lived in New York City in the early 1970s.  This was a time when Manhattan was dirty, dangerous and disillusioned.   ...


January 16, 2017, 5:33 pm, 1710990
Why should Michigan taxpayers subsidize the University of Michigan if most of its best graduates move to California and New York?   This thought crosses my mind as I read this piece.  This 2001 NBER paper addressed this issue   but the New Geography of Jobs (see Moretti) ...


January 16, 2017, 1:33 pm, 1710908
CNN has just published a good piece where I am quoted about pollution exposure inequality in China.   My research on this topic can be found here and here and here.    Consider a large number of people who differ with respect to their income levels. ...


January 14, 2017, 3:33 pm, 1710585
President Obama set in motion a plan that would require that new cars achieve over 50 miles per gallon by the year 2025. The Obama Administration argued that this policy would slow down climate change and would save households $ by reducing their gas expenditures.  If this "free lunch" ...


January 14, 2017, 3:33 pm, 1710584
To my surprise, leading academic labor economists are now talking about monopsony in labor markets such that firms have market power in setting wages.  Such models offer a micro-foundation for arguing that there is "worker exploitation" and the transfer of income from labor to capital (see Piketty).


January 14, 2017, 1:33 am, 1710513
Next week, Daxuan Zhao and I will release a new economics paper focused on the role that climate skeptics play in determining how people adapt to climate change.  A key point to note is how our paper differs from the usual New York Times narrative that focuses on the ...


January 10, 2017, 3:33 pm, 1709384
President-Elect Trump is a "natural experiment".  Back in the mid-1990s, the top 5 academic journals were filled with such applied micro papers.  Suppose President Trump ends the H1B Visa program.   There is a large group of talented people who would remain in their home nation because they couldn't work ...


January 8, 2017, 7:33 pm, 1708705
In my capacity as the Director of Undergraduate Studies at USC Economics, I worked hard during Fall 2016 to put together some interesting programming for our students.  Our set of fall events is listed here and here is the new USC Economics Review (our undergraduate journal).   In Spring 2017, ...


January 7, 2017, 11:33 am, 1708508
I see that Paul Krugman is talking about the consequences of Fake News so I will enter this market and supply some thoughts.  I will define fake news as stories that are "juicy" but not true.  Think of headlines such as "Elvis is Alive".  This is an old example ...


January 6, 2017, 11:33 am, 1708293
Rick Barry and Nobel Laureate Bengt Holmstrom should write a principal-agent hidden effort paper together.   Barry argues that the reason the NBA Portland Blazers are playing much worse as a team this year is because key players received long term contracts at the start the season and now ...