Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Environmental and Urban Economics


April 22, 2017, 11:33 am, 1740097
An airplane is an interesting "Commons".    You pay for the right to enter the plane and if you pay more you enter earlier ("now boarding Business Class") and get a nicer seat.   But, once you are on the plane the fight begins for overhead space, armrests and toilets. ...


April 21, 2017, 7:33 pm, 1740047
The NY Times provides an impassioned list of likely effects of climate change.  While I skimmed the list quickly, it is notable that the list focuses on non-urban consequences.  Yet, all over the world we live in cities.  As I have been arguing for a decade, urbanites have ...


April 21, 2017, 9:33 am, 1739826
Back 25 years ago,  Sherwin Rosen tried to teach me many economics ideas.   I think of him as I read Robert Reich's December 2016 piece "Have Liberal States Won America's Tax Experiment?"   Here are a few quotes from Mr. Reich.


April 19, 2017, 11:33 pm, 1739321
In May 2016, Princeton Press published my co-authored book Blue Skies Over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in China.  Today, I was sent a kind book review by G. Tracy Mehan.   Not all of my books have received such kind reviews.  My 2010 book Climatopolis ...


April 17, 2017, 11:33 pm, 1738571
The NY Times presents a long article focused on a good question posed by the billionaire Steve Ballmer.   Mr Ballmer wants to know what our federal, state and local governments spend $ on and what we get for this expenditure.  In a series of recent papers, I have ...


April 17, 2017, 11:33 am, 1738407
Paul Krugman has written an important column for the NY Times.  He asks why lost resource extraction jobs (coal miners) garner so much of the President's attention relative to jobs lost in other sectors such as suburban mall retail and downtown Macy department store closings.  He argues, without much ...


April 16, 2017, 9:33 pm, 1738276
A black teacher argues in the NY Times today that black students gain more from having him as their teacher.   This "productivity from own group" exposure was one theme of my Civil War work with Dora Costa.    In our 2006 paper, we document the costs and ...


April 16, 2017, 5:33 pm, 1738255
As I read this LA Times article, I see that a real debate is about to begin on California's carbon cap and trade program.  A basic question in public finance economics focuses on economic incidence.  In English, who bears the costs of new regulations such as higher gas taxes? ...


April 14, 2017, 11:33 am, 1737980
In today's NY Times, Steven Lohr has published a great piece about a new National Academy of Sciences report calling for private sector "Big Data" to be used as one source of real time knowledge on the extent and in which sectors that robots and AI is taking over ...


April 12, 2017, 11:33 am, 1737326
Is life going to hell? In the aftermath of the United Airlines video and reading Mr. Spicer's remarks each day, you might say "yeah".  But, let's keep some facts in mind.

The inflation adjusted price of air travel has fallen sharply over the last 30 years.