Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Environmental and Urban Economics

October 20, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1685518
My mother worries when I stop blogging for a while but I must admit that I haven't had anything to say.  Here is a recent 6 minute video of me discussing my 2016 China book.  The China Daily wrote an unusual piece about our book today.

October 12, 2016, 11:33 am, 1683026
Fifteen years ago, Amazon's Pat Bajari and I started to work together on an urban economics paper studying household choice of housing type (i.e number or rooms, building year built) and neighborhood within major metropolitan areas.  At first, we assumed that a household head already had a job and ...

October 10, 2016, 9:33 am, 1682323
Back in 2005, I wrote down the names of 22 economists who I thought would win a Nobel Prize soon.  Nine on the list have now won.  My list must beat a random dart throw at the AEA's phone book?  For the technical discussion of the 2016 winners' ...

October 9, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1682107
Here is the Jane Jacobs biography review.  Here is the Judge Posner book review.   The Jacobs biography traces a "David vs. Goliath" story of Jacobs making the case during the urban renewal era of the 1960s that the incumbent real estate and neighborhoods had a charm and ...

October 8, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1682007
Daniel Wilson of the Fed of San Fran has written a high quality panel paper available here.    His unit of analysis is a United States  county/industry/year/month and he is studying how employment in these units of observation are affected by the county/year/month's snowfall, rain and temperature as well ...

October 3, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1680457
Carl F. Robinson has just posted a thoughtful review of my 2008 Heroes and Cowards book (joint with Dora Costa).   For reasons I don't understand, when our book was published Princeton Press filed it under "Sociology" and the broader community of economists and demographers didn't really engage with ...

October 1, 2016, 11:33 am, 1680072
Two sociologists have written an interesting Opinion Piece in today's NY Times.  They provide an overview of their new event study paper.  They argue that minority 911 calls declined sharply in the aftermath of the 2004 beating of Frank Jude.     For those who know econometrics, read

September 28, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1679384
I am happy to read that UCLA has swapped out its diesel buses and now purchased clean buses (from China's BYD) but the entire fleet consists of 16 buses.  This article ignores the fact that probably 75% of UCLA's employee transport miles commuting to campus take place in private ...

September 28, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1679279
Times change.  USC Football is now ranked below both its College (#15) and its Economics Department (#24 based on REPEC productivity measures).    The WSJ ranking places USC where it deserves to be.   I have taught USC undergraduates for 3 semesters now and I will testify under ...

September 26, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1678647
Harvard's Ken Rogoff appears to embrace a Keynesian demand side view arguing that China's economy is slowing and that this will drag down the growth of the rest of the world's economy.   While he may be right in the short run, I disagree with his medium term view. ...