Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Hypothetical Bias (John Whitehead)

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1772717

Asian Inflation Begins to Sting U.S. Shoppers:

The free ride for American consumers is ending. For two generations, Americans have imported goods produced ever more cheaply from a succession of low-wage countries — first Japan and Korea, then China, and now increasingly places like Vietnam ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1772716

Has any instructor other than me found that the Mankiw website is impossible to navigate? This makes the promised instructional resources impossible to find and integrate into one's course.

I'm discouraged.

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1772715

From the Morganton News Herald (The Worst of Times), Mark Strazizich forecasts the probability:

"I don't think we're ever going to see another Depression," Strazicich said.

Here is the full Strazizich section:

Could it happen again?

Whether the country is in a recession depends ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1772714

Another one from the Southwick Associates winter newsletter:

In 2005, Hurricane Dennis passed through Walton County, Florida. Following this hurricane, 250 permits to coastal property owners were issued to allow installation of temporary emergency structures to protect their property from shoreline erosion. This resulted in the installation ...

September 12, 2017, 1:16 pm, 1772713