September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Hypothetical Bias (John Whitehead)
The free ride for American consumers is ending. For two generations, Americans have imported goods produced ever more cheaply from a succession of low-wage countries — first Japan and Korea, then China, and now increasingly places like Vietnam ...
Has any instructor other than me found that the Mankiw website is impossible to navigate? This makes the promised instructional resources impossible to find and integrate into one's course.
From the Morganton News Herald (The Worst of Times), Mark Strazizich forecasts the probability:
"I don't think we're ever going to see another Depression," Strazicich said.
Here is the full Strazizich section:
Could it happen again?
Whether the country is in a recession depends ...
Another one from the Southwick Associates winter newsletter:In 2005, Hurricane Dennis passed through Walton County, Florida. Following this hurricane, 250 permits to coastal property owners were issued to allow installation of temporary emergency structures to protect their property from shoreline erosion. This resulted in the installation ...