May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Hypothetical Bias (John Whitehead)
The free ride for American consumers is ending. For two generations, Americans have imported goods produced ever more cheaply from a succession of low-wage countries — first Japan and Korea, then China, and now increasingly places like Vietnam ...
Another one from the Southwick Associates winter newsletter:In 2005, Hurricane Dennis passed through Walton County, Florida. Following this hurricane, 250 permits to coastal property owners were issued to allow installation of temporary emergency structures to protect their property from shoreline erosion. This resulted in the installation ...
Has any instructor other than me found that the Mankiw website is impossible to navigate? This makes the promised instructional resources impossible to find and integrate into one's course.
From the Morganton News Herald (The Worst of Times), Mark Strazizich forecasts the probability:
"I don't think we're ever going to see another Depression," Strazicich said.
Here is the full Strazizich section:
Could it happen again?
Whether the country is in a recession depends ...