Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Econ. Dreams - Econ. Nightmares
Economic Dreams - Economic Nightmares
“A growing nation is the greatest ponzi game ever contrived. - Paul Samuelson
Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell. - Edward Abbey”
Dave Iverson
L. Randall Wray has been a long-time critic of orthodox monetary economics and US economic policy. Recently he continued his crusade in a paper titled Alternative Approaches to Money [pdf], Theoretical Inquires into Law (11:1), January 2010. Wray is among many Chartalists (Wikipedia) who are active both in ...
Around 1980 I went to work for the US federal government, the US Forest Service to be specific. I was then a libertarian economist (Austrian School). Many people I knew were puzzled as to why I chose the Forest Service over private industry. The answer was simple and personal: I ...
In The Worldly Philosophers, Robert Heilbroner tells us that all the great economists foresaw a time when capitalism would come to an end. They disagreed, as economists do, as to how it would end.
In Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986), Hyman Minsky outlines an agenda for ending capitalism as we've know ...
On Doug Fabrizio's "Radio West" this morning (Podcast here), Jim Wallis talked us through his new book, Rediscovering Values about what is wrong with our American value system and how to begin to "find a way out". Seems we have, once again, bowed down to a god of ...
Not too long ago a friend asked how to make sense of economics. After my laughter subsided, I recommend two books by Robert Heilbroner: The Worldly Philosophers and Behind the Veil of Economics. I said, "Start with these, and then we can talk more." If my friend had been more ...
In his Valentine post (Feb. 14) Steve Randy Waldman asks, Can we handle the truth? The essence of his message is that the empire is collapsing around us, and there is no easy fix. The credit bubbles have imploded, leaving us with a mountain of debt. Corruption, dereliction of ...
A couple of months ago I mentioned to a friend that the US Forest Service was still incapable of listening to any criticism or learning anything after my 30-year career trying to get them to act responsibly. The friend said, simply, "Sue the Bastards!" He said it knowing that the ...
I have been recently trying to better understand where I stand on financial economics and have been quiet for some months. Time to begin blogging again. After spending my youth as a Friedman libertarian then moving on to Hayek (whom I still admire in part, while disagreeing with most contemporary ...
Has this Bear played out? We'll see. But it does prove interesting to compare it — thus far — with earlier Bear Market runs. Here is a nice interactive chart (click on it to activate it) from the NYT on this Bear Market v. earlier ones: