September Payroll Employment
We are still 2% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Econ. Dreams - Econ. Nightmares
Economic Dreams - Economic Nightmares
“A growing nation is the greatest ponzi game ever contrived. - Paul Samuelson
Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell. - Edward Abbey”
One of my economic dreams, albeit implausible, is that governmental entities could learn to live within their means, and do so without the need for drama and crisis. Like many economists I see little harm in not balancing the budget in any given year, but see little good (and eventually ...
I've been thinking about the public debt problem lately. Is the problem really a non problem or at minimum a problem of creeping gradualism, as many Keynesians seem to argue? Or is the problem acute: the next big bubble to burst, as argued lately by Doug Noland in various posts ...
I have been keeping an eye on various proposals to "reinstate" Glass-Steagall for quite some time. Sometime I ought to post a more comprehensive list as to who is in favor (and in what sense) and who is opposed. Clearly the folks at New Economic Perspectives (from Kansas City ...
Over at Fed Watch, Tim Duy reminds us to be keenly aware of the subtleties of international finance — and simpleton thinking that there are quick fixes. If everybody tries to export their way out of their finance problem all will lose. So too if even a bunch of countries ...
Here in the US, the libertarian right tells us that we are doomed by a federal debt that will soon wreak havoc on the world's financial system, with much pain to be felt here at home. Perhaps they are correct, but I doubt it. If anything a debt problem will ...
I've spend a bunch of time on this blog trying to understand who played what roles in both the run up to, and the meltdown of the recent financial bubble. But I've not, until now covered Matt Taibbi's exposés, or "screeds" as some call them. [Note: I got ...
I took Rajiv Sethi's advice and read all Ashwin Parameswaran's posts at Macroeconomic Resilience. I promised myself early last year that I'd keep up on posts at Macroeconomic Resilience. Instead, I got swept up in despair over the BP oil spill, TEA Party emergence, and continued ...
Killing the messenger has been around for a very long time. In our day, we mostly don't shoot them (at least not in so-called "civilized countries"), but "it is still worth a man's neck to disturb an emperor's image. Nowadays the axe falls more subtly and the execution ...
The "Occupy Wall Street" movement is moving to Main Streets across the globe. It's about time. But I fear that the movement will be captured by the far left, just as the TEA party movement has been captured by the far right. If Occupy Wall Street will evolve to represent ...
I spent most of my working life in the US Forest Service, battling fundamentalism. Most of the battles dealt with economics. My first job was to coordinate use of a linear programming model (FORPLAN) in the development of forest plans. The model may (or may not) have been useful in ...