Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Environmental Economics
"Economists on Environmental and Natural Resources: News, Opinion, and Analysis”
Some students wanted to attend the protest but may have faced possible retribution from their instructors.
“I support the rally but still need to go to my classes,” environmental economics major Alisa Rudnick said. “I will join in after my schedule allows, but I can’t compromise my education for it.”
Rudnick said ...
The latest in the various ongoing attempts by the Jacksonville Jaguars to court interest, any interest, in their team from the local citizenry: guilt. Speaking to a gathering of business and community leaders at the Rotary Club of Jacksonville, former Jaguar standout lineman Tony Boselli exhorted people to get behind ...
From the inbox:
As a WEAI member, we wanted you to be the first to know that a new paper by Paul Krugman has just become available in Economic Inquiry through Wiley Interscience Early View. This hilarious paper, “The Theory of Interstellar Trade,” will appear in the Miscellany section of the ...
Former Enron adviser Paul Krugman takes note in his New York Times column of what he calls "the incredible gap that has opened up between the parties":
Today, Democrats and Republicans live in different universes, both intellectually and morally.
"What Democrats believe," he says "is what textbook economics ...
Florida's special python hunting season has begun.
From Monday until April 17, anyone with a hunting license who pays for the $26 permit can take them on state-managed lands around the Everglades in South Florida.
Florida officials have taken a more aggressive stance against the invasive species in the past year, creating ...
The Board of Directors of the North American Association of Fisheries Economists is pleased to announce that the site of the next NAAFE Forum will be Honolulu, Hawaii. Forum organizers will be Dr. Pingsun Leung of the University of Hawaii, ...
Lots of people, especially those trying to battle high utility bills, believe in energy-efficient homebuilding.
But there's something holding green technology back: It simply costs more to include it than it adds to resale value.
Appraisals for newly built green homes do not fully reflect the cost of green technology, ...
Five years after the need for a cleanup was recognized by the state legislature, the state Environmental Management Commission is hammering out a strategy to ...
North Carolina's teachers and state employees can expect another year without a pay raise.
Gov. Bev Perdue said that, while salaries will remain flat in the coming budget year, she aims to pay back the 1/2-percent pay cut that state workers and teachers received last year in ...
Teaching Philosophy:
John Whitehead does the best that he can in the classroom.