Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Environmental Economics

"Economists on Environmental and Natural Resources: News, Opinion, and Analysis”

October 25, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357600
...Cliff Claven was in The Empire Strikes Back. My worlds have collided. Mind blown.

October 24, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357192

From the WSJ Micro Review:

Natural-Gas Prices Fall Even With Chill Nearing
by: Timothy Puko
Oct 20, 2014

TOPICS:Supply and Demand

SUMMARY:When cold weather looms across the U.S., natural-gas prices usually rise. This year they are falling, after a ...

October 24, 2014, 11:33 am, 1357191

Some time series data:

U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased in 2013 by 129 million metric tons (2.5%), the largest increase since 2010 and the fourth-largest increase since 1990. Emissions trends reflect a combination of economic factors (population multiplied by per capita output [GDP/population]), energy intensity (energy use per dollar ...

October 24, 2014, 7:33 am, 1357034

At the risk of biting a hand that fed me a tiny morsel, here's an interesting take on the Amazon/Hachette book fight. To me, the interesting piece here is the question of value-added. What value does the publisher add to the publishing process?

In the traditional book purchasing paradigm, ...

October 23, 2014, 7:33 am, 1356203

I've been a fan of Mike Rowe since his early days on the Discovery Channel's 'Dirty Jobs.' I don't always agree with his political views, but he's entertaining. He has a new show on CNN called 'Somebody's Gotta Do it,' where he highlights what seem to many like ...

October 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1355564

Mark Thoma:

There's a version of this in econometrics, i.e. you know the model is correct, you are just having trouble finding evidence for it. It goes as follows. You are testing a theory you came up with, but the data are uncooperative and say you are wrong. But instead of ...

October 22, 2014, 11:33 am, 1355563

Retraction Watch:

There’s a new journal in town.

Inference’s first issue includes a lengthy review of a laboratory by a tennis instructor, a set of caricatures, and an exchange of emails from 1996 that is “perhaps, less remarkable for what it says than for the fact that it took ...

October 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1354187

*"I have no idea what Bono and the Edge think is funny."

October 20, 2014, 11:33 am, 1354105

I also contacted Penny Goldberg, a professor of economics at Yale University and editor of the American Economic Review, to ask if she could think of any joke, any tiny moment of amusement, one solitary witticism that has passed across her desk. Anything, even if it was rejected.

Ms. Goldberg, confirming ...

October 20, 2014, 9:33 am, 1354021

From the Miscellany Section of Economic Inquiry:

We collect contingent valuation data from 524 student survey respondents over a 3-day, 72-hour period. Data analysis of a hypothetical campus referendum focuses on time-of-day effects on willingness to pay for a renewable energy project. We find that subjects responding to the ...