Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


July 1, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1500355
Demand for truck drivers is on the rise. Yet, there are not enough young drivers who want that rough of a lifestyle.

Supply Chain reports Aging Truck Driver Work Force - A Major Issue in Filling Demand & Empty Seats.

With a combination of retirements and ...


July 1, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1500258
Sirens of Blackmail

Having already explained twice what is going on with Tsipris' ever changing statements, I find it amusing that eurozone nannycrats cannot figure things out.

A few snips from the Financial Times article Tsipras Urges Greeks to Defy Creditor' "Blackmail" will explain what I ...


July 1, 2015, 9:34 am, 1499940
Stock futures are up this morning on news that Alexis Tsipras Backs Down on Many Greece Bailout Demands.

A reader asked me about Tsipras' cave in, but I responded it is nothing but a political ploy ahead of the July 5 referendum as to whether or ...


June 30, 2015, 1:34 pm, 1499427
Coordinated Meddling

Eurozone leaders are pouring it on thick again today with warning after warning. Yesterday, German chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Francois Hollande, and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker were all I in on the Coordinated Meddling hoping to convince Greece citizens to accept the current ...


June 30, 2015, 11:33 am, 1499346
Puerto Rico is bankrupt. The key problem is that while municipalities can declare bankruptcy, states and territories cannot.

President Obama recognizes the problem. He says No Federal Bailout for Puerto Rico. Instead he urges Congress to pass a bill allowing Puerto Rico to declare bankruptcy.


June 29, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1498987
Irony of the Day

In a bitter 40 minute lecture, European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, lectures Greece on the "truth".

Other than being a pompous buffoon, Jean-Claude Juncker is most famous for his statement "When it becomes serious, you have to lie".

I believe ...


June 29, 2015, 11:33 am, 1498645
Reader Reflections on Greece

Reader "AC" pinged me this AM with her accurate assessment of events in Greece. "AC" writes ...

I find strange that no Euro leaders realized that even if Tsipras accepted the deal, his parliament would with almost certainty have rejected it.

European ...


June 29, 2015, 1:33 am, 1498350
After the ECB shut off ELA, prime minister Alexis Tsipras imposed capital controls while blaming the ECB just as I predicted.

Of course, that was an easy prediction. Yet, even at the last moment, many did not believe it would come to this.

Let's tune into the


June 29, 2015, 1:33 am, 1498349
Four years ago I thought odds of an eventual Grexit were nearly certain. Some people still don't believe so, while others are just beginning to understand the obvious.

Former Pimco Co-CEO El-Erian Sees 85% Grexit Odds With ‘Massive’ Contraction Coming.

Greece is heading for a “massive ...


June 28, 2015, 11:33 am, 1498225
I have been wondering when the ECB would finally pull the plug and put a stop to the ELA.

Today, amid an accelerating run on Greek banks, the ECB capped the ELA.

The Guardian has a Live-Update on the crisis.

Here is the key point ...