May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis
"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”
When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged ...
Spanish Bank Shrinking Credit
The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported ...
Amusingly, another reader accused me of "underplaying the crisis".
A third reader asked "what is the free market response?" A similar ...
Janet Yellen decried rising inequality on Friday in an unusual speech that may lead to accusations of politicising the US Federal ...
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' Gambit Explodes
Greek bonds yields had already been climbing with the rise ...
Let's start with a look at retail sales.
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Retail Sales Falter Amid Signs of Global Slowdown.
Similarly, Bloomberg ...
Before discussing further, let's first look at a Mish Mailbag.
Reader Rob writes ...
I was thinking that margin ...
I seldom watch TV. But today I am on the road and watched CNN from a restaurant. I did not have sound, but I did see captions.
CNN's headline story was ridiculous. CNN placed the blame for the intraday DOW plunge of 460 point on ebola. ...
Diffusion Index Problems
The first problem with diffusion indices is they do not distinguish between big companies and small companies.
The second problem is they record ...