Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


August 31, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1327265
Putin threw fat into the Ukrainian fire today by calling for Talks on Eastern Ukraine Statehood.

The question at hand is" What precisely does Putin mean by "statehood" ?

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Sunday for immediate talks on the "statehood" of southern and eastern Ukraine, ...


August 31, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1327220
The currency and fiscal battleground front lines in Europe remains the same. France wants QE, fiscal stimulus, and more leeway on meeting fiscal deficit targets. Germany doesn't. And the fighting has strengthened.

The idea that ECB can produce nirvana by devaluing the euro is ridiculous. Yet, that's the ...


August 31, 2014, 1:33 am, 1327079
As the tide in the Ukraine civil war turns, the EU threatens Russia with more mindless sanctions.

Bloomberg reports EU Vows More Russia Sanctions If War in Ukraine Worsens.

European Union leaders agreed to impose tougher sanctions on Russia, possibly targeting energy and finance, if the ...


August 30, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1327039
Obamacare greatly expanded Medicaid coverage, but there is a hidden gotcha that may come back and haunt your heirs for benefits you receive from age 55-64.

This is not new news, but few read and understand the "fine print".

In a warning about the "fine print" and in ...


August 29, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1326853
Here's the moral dilemma of the day:

Suppose you are a staunch Libertarian, doing reasonably well and you don't need food stamps. Yet, under perverse rules, you qualify for them. Should you take them?

Reader Steven faces that exact question. Steven writes ...

Hi Mish


August 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1326669
Mainstream media headlines in the last two days offer an amusing look at GDP forecasts.

GDP Stronger Than Expected

Yesterday, the Financial Times reported US Rebound Stronger than First Thought.

The US economy’s second quarter bounce was stronger than previously thought, with the ...


August 29, 2014, 3:33 am, 1326428
Consumer spending in Japan slumped in June because of a tax hike pushed through by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Economists claimed it would be temporary and spending would quickly recover thanks to inflation.

Let's take a look at what actually happened.

Japanese Household Spending Slumps 5.9%


August 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1326138
Please consider the "official" exchange rate of the Bolivar to the USD.

Bolivar vs. US Dollar



From 2005 to 2009 the official exchange rate was 2 bolivars to one US dollar.In 2009 the official exchange rate soared to 4.3 to ...


August 28, 2014, 3:33 am, 1325736
Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad Take II

In response to Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong, a close friend wrote ...

Jane’s has been in business giving good advice for a century and could only do so by giving good advice. Everything I have ...


August 28, 2014, 1:33 am, 1325687
Every day, the cost of a plane ticket out of Venezuela goes up. That assumes you can get a plane ticket, and you probably cannot, even if you booked three months ago. Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Lufthansa cut the number of flights. Air Canada stopped all service.