Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


January 30, 2015, 3:33 am, 1412998
In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote.

According to an ...


January 29, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1412878
Ukrainians Fighting Ukrainians

Forced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently.

The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. As one might expect, avoidance of needless military ...


January 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1412596
Here's a story from January 13 that just came my way today thanks to a reader wootendw who posted a link as a comment to one of my articles.

The background to this story is SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras' "Open Letter" to German Citizens, published on Jan.13 in ...


January 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1412595
Here's a story from January 13 that just came my way today thanks to a reader wootendw who posted a link as a comment to one of my articles.

The background to this story is SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras' "Open Letter" to German Citizens, published on Jan.13 in ...


January 29, 2015, 5:33 am, 1412203
When inflation alarmists want to convince everyone the dollar is about to become worthless, they post this chart of the CPI.

CPI - Urban Consumers - All Items - Index



Inflationists claim that is a trend to oblivion. And actually ...


January 28, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1411799
Investors who plowed into Greek assets ahead of Mario Draghi's QE €60 billion a month bond-buying spree figuring the ECB could paper over this mess have been hammered nonstop recently.

Today alone, bank shares plunged 22-29% and yield on the 3-year treasury hit 16.97%.

Worst Day in History ...


January 28, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1411692
The Outside the Box MarketWatch Opinion of Damian Maldonado is Millennials Can Finally Afford Homes with New Mortgage Rules.

Let's start with a look the new rules.

New Rules

The administration earlier this month cut the premium that borrowers with a Federal Housing Administration ...


January 28, 2015, 3:33 am, 1411268
The Blowout Victory of Syriza has taken on some new meaning outside of Grexit possibilities.

Please consider Greeks Rebuff EU Call for More Russia Sanctions.

A spokesman for the ruling coalition of Alexis Tsipras, prime minister, said Greece had not approved a statement from ...


January 27, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1411171
Payback of Greek Debt

Greece has something like €315 billion of public debt.

Forget about that. Instead focus on liabilities as presented in Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted to German and French Taxpayers; Bluff of the Day Revisited.

The above total is a "modest" ...


January 27, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1410995
US Special Forces in Ukraine?

In response to US Special Forces in Mariupol? I received an interesting email from "Dan" a 23-year Army veteran with four years in special services.

Dan writes ...

I was a soldier in the US Army for 23 years including ...