Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

October 20, 2014, 1:33 am, 1353793
The ECB has been concerned about falling consumer prices. I propose that's 100% stupid, yet that's the concern.

When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged ...

October 19, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353711
Huky Guru posted a couple of interesting charts on his blog today about shrinking credit but rising percentage of nonperforming Spanish bank loans: NPLs of banks rebounded to 16.59%. Seven points higher than in the 1994 crisis.

Spanish Bank Shrinking Credit

October 18, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1353493
The Fourth Amendment to the US Constitution is crystal clear in meaning.

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported ...

October 17, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1353276
In response to Obama's Lame Response to Ebola; No Protocols but Lots of Fearmongering one person responded that I was "over-cooking the Ebola crisis".

Amusingly, another reader accused me of "underplaying the crisis".

A third reader asked "what is the free market response?" A similar ...

October 17, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1353059
Those seeking the irony of the day can find it comes straight from the mouth of Fed Chair. Please consider Janet Yellen Bemoans Rising US Inequality.

Janet Yellen decried rising inequality on Friday in an unusual speech that may lead to accusations of politicising the US Federal ...

October 17, 2014, 1:33 am, 1352686
In the last three days, yield on the Greek 10-year government bond soared from 6.6% to over 9% before settling at 8.917%.

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' Gambit Explodes

Greek bonds yields had already been climbing with the rise ...

October 16, 2014, 11:33 am, 1352253
Retail sales reports on Wednesday have me thinking about the strength of the economy, commercial construction, jobs, and profit margins.

Let's start with a look at retail sales.

The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Retail Sales Falter Amid Signs of Global Slowdown.

Similarly, Bloomberg ...

October 16, 2014, 3:33 am, 1352013
I have been warning US treasury bears for quite some time, but I now wonder if we have seen a bit of short-term capitulation.

Before discussing further, let's first look at a Mish Mailbag.

Reader Rob writes ...

Hi Mish

I was thinking that margin ...

October 15, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1351974
Ebola Fearmongering

I seldom watch TV. But today I am on the road and watched CNN from a restaurant. I did not have sound, but I did see captions.

CNN's headline story was ridiculous. CNN placed the blame for the intraday DOW plunge of 460 point on ebola. ...

October 15, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1351692
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey (a diffusion index) hit a multiyear high last month, then promptly crashed this month.

Diffusion Index Problems

The first problem with diffusion indices is they do not distinguish between big companies and small companies.

The second problem is they record ...