Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

November 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1582828
Retailers, especially big-box retailers will be blue if light shopping carries over for the rest of the season. The Wall Street Journal reports Thinner Crowds on Black Friday.

Millions of Americans left their Thanksgiving meals to hit stores across the country in an annual shopping ritual, ...

November 27, 2015, 3:33 am, 1582666
In the wake of conflicting flight path information with Russian and Turkey differing on the flight path of the Russian aircraft that Turkey downed over Syria, comes the incredulous claim that Turkey did not recognize the aircraft as Russian when it shot the aircraft down.

This unbelievable statement comes ...

November 26, 2015, 11:33 am, 1582540
Attitudes towards the EU have hardened in the wake of the ISIS attack on Paris. A new poll reveals Majority of UK Public Now Wants 'Brexit'.

More than half of the public now want to leave the European Union, according to an opinion poll for The Independent – ...

November 25, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1582168
Today's Personal Income and Outlays shows consumer spending once again on the "soft side" despite solid income growth.

Income was in-line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. However, spending came in with an anemic  0.1% gain month-over-month. The Econoday Consensus Estimate for consumer spending was 0.3%, in ...

November 25, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1582167
Fourth Quarter GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 1.8%

Following today's personal income report in which consumer spending rose only 0.1% month-over-month, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for fourth quarter declined by 0.5 percent to 1.8 percent.

"The GDPNow model ...

November 25, 2015, 3:34 am, 1581794
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving. Black and Blue Friday will follow, putting U.S. Consumers and Stores in Face Off Over Discounts.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey found more people planned to cut holiday spending than increase in every category surveyed: clothing, jewelry, electronics, food and toys, and that 46 percent felt ...

November 24, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1581647
In the wake of Turkey shooting down a Russian aircraft over Syria, the immediate impact will be to make negotiations on the removal of Assad all the more difficult. First let's analyze the flight path of the downed aircraft courtesy of Stratfor.

Map of Flight Path of Downed Russian ...

November 24, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1581521
Economists expected manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed region would bounce into positive territory this month.

The Bloomberg Econoday Consensus Estimate was +1 in a range of 0-4, but the reading of -3 came in below any economist's estimate.

Early indications for the November factory sector ...

November 24, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1581522
Theater of Absurd

The tangled web of friend-foe relationships in the Mideast has reached a new high point of circular absurdity.

The US and Turkey are fighting ISIS (allegedly), as is Russia and Iran. Turkey just shot down a Russian plane on the Syrian-Turkey border.Turkey freely buys ...

November 24, 2015, 5:34 am, 1581160
Alternative Bank Schweiz (ABS), a small bank in Switzerland broke the negative interest rate on deposits barrier, CHARGING customers to cake their money. (emphasis in caps from the article).

The Alternative Bank Schweiz wrote to customers telling them they would face a -0.125 per cent rate ...