May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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My needs outgrew blogger.
The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home ...
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is just a handful of votes ahead of socialist Bernie Sanders in a vote ...
Employment sank the ISM index in January which could muster no better than a 48.2 for what, following annual revisions to 2015, is the fourth sub-50 reading in a row. ...
The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for +0.6% in a range of 0.3% to 1.3%, but not a single economist came close.
Held down ...
The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts of will an anemic 1.2% whimper.
"The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. "
Chinese manufacturers signaled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2016, with both output and employment declining at slightly faster rates than in December. Total new business meanwhile fell at ...
They did not publish it.
It's hard enough getting something timely to major new organizations, and when you ...
A Financial Times survey of 51 economists, conducted in the days ...
Gordon Long, founder of the Financial Repression website interviewed Lacy Hunt last week and ...