Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


May 29, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1482939
Illinois House Bill 298 would allow Illinois municipalities to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy. That bill is endorsed by Governor Bruce Rauner, and currently rests in the house rules committee.

As soon as Illinois passes Bill 298, a number of Illinois cities are highly likely to file bankruptcy as ...


May 29, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1482856
Unexpected Chicago PMI Crash

Looking for signs of strength? You will not find them in today's Chicago PMI report.

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was for a 53.1 expansion reading. Instead, the PMI came in at 46.2, well below the bottom of the consensus range of 51.0 ...


May 29, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1482765
First quarter GDP came in at -0.7% pretty much in line with the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of -0.8%.

First-quarter GDP was revised down about as expected, to minus 0.7 percent vs expectations for minus 0.8 and compared with an initial reading of plus 0.2 percent. Updated source data ...


May 29, 2015, 3:33 am, 1482428
In the strive for zero labor factories we are nearly there. Is 90% good enough?

China Daily reports Manufacturing Hub Starts Work on First Zero-Labor Factory.

A manufacturing hub in South China's Guangdong province has begun constructing the city's first zero-labor factory, a signal that the ...


May 28, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1482118
Chalk up another €5 billion in capital flight from Greece in April. Total eurozone exposure to Greek currency liabilities now sits at €115 Billion, not counting accelerated capital flight in recent weeks.

The following two charts produced with data from EuroCrisis Monitor.

Greece Target2 Imbalance ...


May 28, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1482039
A Swedish man reached the absolute end of what he can take anymore and profanely complains about Swedish politicians. The man is the founder of a new political party called Riksdemokraterna.

Warning: graphic language.



Link if video does not play:


May 28, 2015, 3:33 am, 1481684
On May 13, Moody's shocked the municipal bond market by downgrading Chicago to junk.

At that time S&P rated Chicago five notches higher, the widest spread between bond raters in history.

Kristi Culpepper, AKA "Bond Girl" comments on the event in What Chicago’s Fiscal Emergency says about ...


May 27, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1481391
The curious story of the day is back-to-back reports, minutes apart, by the same news agency, saying different things.

I commented on that just a bit ago in Greece Says Creditor Agreement Deal Close, Senior Eurozone Official Says "I Wish it Were True".

There is ...


May 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1481312
U.S. Sen. Rand Paul joins the Illinois Policy Institute at the 1871 Center for a discussion about how to transform Chicago, the state of Illinois and the U.S. with liberty-based public policy solutions.

Tickets are completely sold out, but you can watch the livestream at 12:45 p.m. ...


May 27, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1481311
The curious story of the day is back-to-back reports, minutes apart, by the same news agency, saying different things.

Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors

Here is Reuters headline number one: Greece Says has Begun Drawing Up Agreement with Creditors

Greece ...