Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


March 4, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1433680
Hypocrisy of the Toronto real estate board is stunning. The board threatened brokers who list sales prices. Their excuse is "privacy".

"If 41,160 members have access to this information and are free to give it to [clients], I don't think it is private information." said Fraser Beach, a broker ...


March 4, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1433549
People in California complain their flooring is making them sick. The complaints have one source in common, Lumber Liquidators laminate flooring from China with toxic levels of Formaldehyde, up to 20 times the maximum amount in one test. US manufactured flooring does not have the same defects.

Health and ...


March 4, 2015, 1:33 am, 1433034
There's an excellent post on Keep Talking Greece this evening on the simmering feud between Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Spanish prime minister Minister Mariano Rajoy.

Tsipras made a claim that Rajoy's plan is to "wear down, topple or bring our government to unconditional surrender before our work ...


March 3, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1433004
Markit has new reports out today on service activity in China and Japan.

The former shows a bit of growth, the latter contraction. Because the reports are diffusion indices that give no weighting to the size of the companies reporting, one must look at these reports with a broad ...


March 3, 2015, 7:33 pm, 1432881
In an effort to arrest hyperinflation and general panic over rising food prices, Ukraine's Central Bank Hikes Benchmark Rate to 30 Percent.

Ukraine's central bank will raise its benchmark refinancing rate to 30 percent from 19.5 percent, the head of the central bank said on Tuesday, as ...


March 3, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1432729
Is the Chicago pension system so messed up and union work rules so entrenched the only way to change either of them is bankruptcy? I think so.

So does Dennis Byrne who wrote on his blog today Chicago's Only Salvation: A Detroit-Like Bankruptcy.

This is ...


March 2, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1432150
In an Bloomberg Television interview Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg Television's Trish Regan about the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, the U.S. economy and his objectives at Janus Capital.

Key Quotes

"Not even thin gruel is being offered to our modern-day Oliver Twist investors. You ...


March 2, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1431988
This is my second column for the Illinois Policy Institute, where I am now a senior fellow.

The article was written well ahead of the Moody's downgrade of Chicago pensions last Friday, with a final edit made on Friday, and posted then on the IPI website.


March 2, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1431909
Now that Germany has agreed to an extension, allegedly with no more money on the table, Spain confirms what we all knew would happen, Third Greek Bailout Under Discussion.

Euro zone countries are discussing a third bailout for Greece worth 30 billion to 50 billion euros, Spain's ...


March 2, 2015, 1:33 am, 1431422
Last week I wrote an article for the Illinois Policy Institute on the hugely unfunded and deteriorating nature of numerous Illinois' pension systems.

I will post the article on Monday.

My article was on on state pension systems, not Chicago's, and was written well ahead of downgrades ...