Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

July 20, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1303756
Update: The video clip I displayed earlier today was likely the downing of an An-30 last month not Malaysian flight MH17. Once again it is very difficult to sort through all the propaganda. Both sides are involved.

Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks both Russian and Ukrainian ...

July 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1303714
Reader David sent an email and accompanying video that purportedly shows the Malaysian Flight 17 being hit by missile. Let's take a look.

David Writes ...

It appears as if the right engine and wing area took the hit. The camera ...

July 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1303520
Background: Argentina defaulted on bonds following a debt crisis in 2001-2002. 92% of the investors agreed to haircuts, but a vulture fund picked up an 8% share at rock bottom prices and refused to negotiate.

In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that Argentina Cannot Selectively ...

July 18, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1303182
Ukraine is making a lot of hay out of videos showing rebels cheering the downed plane. For example the Daily Mail proclaims, with videos 'That was a blast - look at the smoke': Sick boast of the laughing rebels.

No doubt the rebels were pleased at the ...

July 18, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1303181
Chinese Recovery On Paper

Is China really growing at the reported 7.5% rate? I have frequently stated "no chance". Malinvestments in housing, vacant cities, vacant malls, and roads with no traffic prove the point. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets reiterates that view in regards to credit expansion and ...

July 18, 2014, 3:33 am, 1302903
A friend of mind asked me to comment on the Nanex article Perfect Pilfering, a detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach.

We received trade execution reports from an active trader who wanted to know why his large orders almost never completely ...

July 18, 2014, 1:33 am, 1302880
People seem to have their minds made up on whether or not the plane was shot down and by whom.

The propaganda du jour is the separatists were responsible. By even discussing alternatives, ridiculous accusations have come in about "Mish" being a Russian name.

The first casualty ...

July 17, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1302683
A Russian news website claims Ukrainian Army Buk Missile Likely Downed Malaysian Plane.

A Ukrainian army battalion of Buk air defense systems was deployed near the city of Donetsk a day before the crash of a Malaysian passenger plane on Thursday, making the downing of the aircraft ...

July 17, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1302606
Moments ago a Malaysian BA 777 Passenger Jet Crashed in Ukraine. 280 passengers and 15 crew were killed. The plane was at an altitude of about 33,000 feet.

According to the Financial Times Anatoly Geraschenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior minister, said in a Facebook posting ...

July 17, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1302531
A second disaster hit Malaysian Airlines today. Bloomberg reports a Boeing 777 crashed near the town of Torez in eastern Ukraine killing 280 passengers and 15 crew.

A Ukrainian Interior Ministry official was quick to point the finger, stating that pro-Russian separatists shot down the passenger jet. The ...