Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468093
I had a lot of fun this morning on CNBC.

Rick Santelli invited me on his show to discuss Beware, the Tax Man Has Eyes on You: Potential Hike for Illinoisans is Staggering and a few other recent posts of mine on the plight of Chicago. ...

May 5, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1468094
The JS-Kit/Echo comment system I had on this blog is now defunct. The company recently dropped support across the board for everyone.

I am looking for a replacement comment system. In the meantime, thanks for your patience.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a ...

May 5, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1468019
Greece Talks on Hold

Pierre Moscovici, the European commissioner for economic affairs, warns Debt Talks on Hold Until Greece Agrees Reforms.

Greece’s eurozone creditors will not discuss how to get the country’s sovereign debt back on a sustainable path until Athens agrees to a new economic ...

May 5, 2015, 1:33 pm, 1468018
On April 29 in Real Q1 GDP 0.2% vs. Consensus 1.0%; Disaster in the Details I commented "The second estimate of Q1 GDP comes out on May 29. Any number of changes could send Q1 negative."

Here we are already. Imports subtract from GDP and March trade ...

May 5, 2015, 11:33 am, 1467921
Many producers have approached Ron Paul about doing a documentary regarding Paul's philosophical views.

Until now, Ron Paul has turned down all such overtures.

Empire of Lies

I am pleased to report that Ron Paul just now authorized a long-time friend, Charles Goyette, to make that documentary. ...

May 4, 2015, 11:33 pm, 1467569
Using a Prechteresque term, Bill Gross Says the "Bull Market Super-Cycle is Nearing End".

The attempt by global central banks to cure a debt crisis with more debt doesn’t have much further to run, which will end a rally that’s lasted three and a half decades, the ...

May 4, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1467393
I have seen many grim predictions regarding robots taking away human jobs, but one of the most dire predictions comes from a study commissioned by ING-Diba.

The study claims that 59 percent of Germany's work force could be replaced by machines and software in the coming decades.

The ...

May 4, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1467316
Last month I noted Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines. They didn't. Last month's orders were revised to the negative column in today's report.

Factory Orders Rise but Soft

Today, the Bloomberg Economic Consensus on factory orders was correct, but ...

May 4, 2015, 5:33 am, 1466932
Live in Chicago? A report by Nuveen shows a pension payment spike looms in 2016, and the potential tax hike to fix it is staggering.

Please consider Chicago’s Fiscal Stress: New Term, Same Problems.

Pension Payments Are A Growing Portion of the Budget

Years ...

May 4, 2015, 1:33 am, 1466823
More signs of a global slowdown surface in the latest China Manufacturing PMI where operating conditions and new orders decline at fastest pace in a year.

Chinese manufacturers saw a further deterioration in operating conditions in April, with total new orders declining at the strongest pace for ...