Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


September 22, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1339418
Bidding Wars Stop

With cash-paying investors on full retreat, existing home sales dropped 1.8% in August, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist says that's a good thing because "first-time buyers have a better chance of purchasing a home ...


September 22, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1339343
In a concern over votes, regional government spending is on the rise. In addition, Spain Mandates "Stop the Bleeding" No More Layoffs in Public Companies.

"Stop the Bleeding" via translation ...

Nine months after the local elections, the government has begun to show signs of needing ...


September 22, 2014, 3:33 am, 1338912
Strange Bedfellows

US Mideast relationships get stranger every day. The US has come to the defense or has given aid to three rather unlikely groups in the past few weeks.

Iranian Revolutionary GuardKurdish Workers Party (PKK), which directly supports the YPG, on Washington's list of proscribed terror groups"Moderates" ...


September 21, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1338853
Arrogance cost former French president Nicolas Sarkozy the election in 2012.

Judging from statements he made today, he's just as arrogant, if not more so today. He even brags of a bigger Facebook audience than Francois Hollande and his UMP party opponents, ignoring the fact that 60% of the ...


September 21, 2014, 11:33 am, 1338693
In a foolish as well as never-ending attempt to prevent price deflation and revive growth, the ECB Urges Berlin to Cut Taxes and Spend.

Berlin has hit back at calls from a top European Central Bank official urging Germany to spend more to help the eurozone escape ...


September 20, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1338487
As a direct result of sanctions on Russia, there is an overabundance of fruits and vegetables in France, Spain, Poland, and elsewhere in Europe. Basic law of supply and demand dictates prices of crops would fall. And they did.

While most foolishly want to stick it to Russia, few ...


September 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1338159
A Fiscal Times, Yahoo Finance article by by John Grgurich claims that Instead of QE, Fed Could Have Given $56,000 to Every Household in America .

Grgurich formulated his article after reading "an intriguing piece just published in Foreign Affairs, Brown University political economist Mark Blyth and ...


September 19, 2014, 11:33 am, 1337994
The title of this article, "Surprising" MH17 Crash Update, is accurate only in the sense the average sheep believes the average mainstream media report.

Since that is the majority, the title is accurate. Mish readers, however, may find this report not surprising.

Reader Marina from Toronto explains via ...


September 19, 2014, 1:33 am, 1337685
With a ramp up in fearmongering led by financial institutions and every UK political party, the preliminary votes indicate Scottish Anti-Independence Campaign Poised for Victory in Vote.

With 26 of Scotland’s 32 local authorities declared, the Better Together camp backed by Prime Minister David Cameron and the ...


September 18, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1337445
Following on the "success" of the ECB's LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operation) which did nothing to spur lending and everything to create the biggest sovereign bond bubble the world has ever seen,  ECB president Mario Draghi announced a TLTRO or Targeted LTRO on September 4.

The ECB's intent is ...