Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


August 29, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1326853
Here's the moral dilemma of the day:

Suppose you are a staunch Libertarian, doing reasonably well and you don't need food stamps. Yet, under perverse rules, you qualify for them. Should you take them?

Reader Steven faces that exact question. Steven writes ...

Hi Mish


August 29, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1326669
Mainstream media headlines in the last two days offer an amusing look at GDP forecasts.

GDP Stronger Than Expected

Yesterday, the Financial Times reported US Rebound Stronger than First Thought.

The US economy’s second quarter bounce was stronger than previously thought, with the ...


August 29, 2014, 3:33 am, 1326428
Consumer spending in Japan slumped in June because of a tax hike pushed through by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Economists claimed it would be temporary and spending would quickly recover thanks to inflation.

Let's take a look at what actually happened.

Japanese Household Spending Slumps 5.9%


August 28, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1326138
Please consider the "official" exchange rate of the Bolivar to the USD.

Bolivar vs. US Dollar



From 2005 to 2009 the official exchange rate was 2 bolivars to one US dollar.In 2009 the official exchange rate soared to 4.3 to ...


August 28, 2014, 3:33 am, 1325736
Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad Take II

In response to Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong, a close friend wrote ...

Jane’s has been in business giving good advice for a century and could only do so by giving good advice. Everything I have ...


August 28, 2014, 1:33 am, 1325687
Every day, the cost of a plane ticket out of Venezuela goes up. That assumes you can get a plane ticket, and you probably cannot, even if you booked three months ago. Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Lufthansa cut the number of flights. Air Canada stopped all service.


August 27, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1325563
IMF chief Christine Lagarde Under Formal Investigation in French fraud case.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has been put under formal investigation by French magistrates for alleged negligence in a political fraud affair dating from 2008 when she was finance minister.

Lagarde was questioned by magistrates ...


August 27, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1325493
Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen point out US 10-Year treasury is the cheapest in G7 with the spread near a record high.

Spread of US 10-Year Note Yield vs. G7 Average Yield



click on chart for ...


August 27, 2014, 5:33 am, 1325187
On August 10, Ukraine said No Cease-Fire Until Rebels Surrender.

Things changed.

This just in ... On August 26, Reuters reported Poroshenko Seeks Ceasefire After 'Very Tough' Talks With Putin.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko promised after late-night talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin ...


August 26, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1325095
Given misinformation and outright lies by all involved, it's important to consider the both sides of the story.

Military Endgame?

Jane's Defense claims Ukrainian Military Moves to Endgame.

Ukrainian troops have continued their offensive aimed at clearing pro-Russian rebels from the Donetsk and Lugansk ...