May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis
"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”
This Bloomberg headline "If the Options Market Is Right, China's Stock Rescue Is Doomed" reads like something one would find in ...
After all the hemming and hawing by nearly every Fed governor, and despite the fact the Fed has to do something in just over two weeks, the Fed still does not know what to do.
Speaking in Jackson Hole Fed governor Stanley ...
The National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) provides this grim-looking annual picture.
There's no hurry for a rate hike based on the July personal income and outlays report where ...
Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars.
In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August.
In response, ...
There are two ways to compute how well the economy is doing.
One is to tally all the goods and services produced during ...
For example, the Consumer Metrics Institute says "On the surface this report shows solid economic growth for ...
"The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the 'advance' estimate issued last ...
For example, the Kansas City Fed regional factory report came in today at -9, compared to an Economic Consensus of -4.
Factory activity in the Kansas City Fed's region remains in deep ...
“Confoundingly to me, people have come to be quite accepting of the value ...