Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).

Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.

November Payroll Employment

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

Groundhog Day: Allegedly "Only One Day Left" to Save Greece; LAOS Party Leader Rejects Ultimatum, Hands Out Drachma Coins to Fondly Recall Greece's Pre-Euro Days
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 4, 2012, 5:34 pm, 948260
Greek default drama is much like the movie Groundhog Day. If you prefer a quote from Yogi Berra instead, then please consider It's déjà vu all over again.

Every day for weeks we have heard a "deal is close". Moreover, on multiple occasions at ...

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 4, 2012, 7:34 am, 948225
Inquiring minds note a stunning drop in the price for doing God's Work. Last year Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein received a salary of a $600,000 as well as a stock bonus worth $12.6 million.

This year the base salary for doing God's work rose to $2 ...

Greek Leaders (All 3 Coalition Parties) Oppose New Austerity Measures; Words of the Day: "Hardball", Followed by "Meeting Cancelled" and the Always Popular "Meeting May be Scheduled Later in the Week"
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 3, 2012, 9:34 pm, 948210
Shortly after Dutch finance minister, said "We want no further delays" came news of further delays. The reason: Greek political parties all refuse to go along with more austerity measures.

Please consider Greece’s leaders oppose new austerity measures

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 3, 2012, 1:34 pm, 948140
Quick Notes About the "Falling" Unemployment Rate

In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,565,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,145,000. Those not in the labor force rose by 2,420,000.   In January, the Civilian Labor Force rose ...

Providence Rhode Island Faces "Bankruptcy by June" says Mayor; Pension Plan 32% Funded (and About to Get Worse)
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 3, 2012, 11:34 am, 948110
Untenable pension promises made by corrupt politicians to corrupt unions in an unholy alliance is about to sink another city. Please consider Providence is facing bankruptcy

Rhode Island's capital city will be in bankruptcy by June if it doesn't get help resolving its financial crisis.

That was ...

EU says "Strict Application of Budget Rules Doesn't Make Sense"; Spain Kicks Off the Year Destroying 9,000+ Jobs a Day, 283,700 for Month; Impossible Dream
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 3, 2012, 3:34 am, 948026
On January 30, 25 of 27 nations signed the Merkozy accord calling for strict budget discipline and "quasi-automatic sanctions" for nations that violate budget rules. Only the UK and Czech Republic refused to sign.

Following that ceremonious signing it took precisely two days for European bureaucrats to propose "Application ...

American Airlines Went Bankrupt in November; Are Taxpayers on the Hook for Pension Benefits? What is the Equitable Solution?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 3, 2012, 1:34 am, 948020
American Airlines filed for bankruptcy in November 2011. Here is the question at hand: Will Taxpayers Be On The Hook For American Airlines' Pensions?

American Airlines needs $18.5 billion to cover its pension promises to current and former employees, but it has only set aside ...

Jim Grant is Ron Paul's Pick to Head Fed, Gingrich's Pick to Study Return to Gold Standard; Grant Waits for Call from Mitt Romney; One Fundamental Mistake by Grant
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 2, 2012, 5:34 pm, 947978
MarketWatch comments on the politics of Getting Back to the Gold Standard

The legendary Wall Street writer, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, has been mentioned by two of the rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Newt Gingrich said if elected president, he’d name Grant to help run a ...

Deal Reached to Prevent Michigan Takeover of Detroit; Really? No, Not Really; What's Best for Bankrupt Detroit?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 2, 2012, 3:34 pm, 947954
On January 29 Bloomberg reported Bing Races to Beat Michigan Deadline for Union Detroit Deal

Democratic Mayor Dave Bing is racing to wrest concessions from 48 bargaining units to erase a $200 million deficit in the home of General Motors Co. and the cradle of the U.S. auto ...

Swarms of Mini-Drones to Forever Change Warfare; "Mr. President, We Have a Drone Gap"
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
February 2, 2012, 1:34 pm, 947932
As a temporary diversion from economic analysis, inquiring minds are watching an amazing video of swarming mini-drones.



Information Dissemination says UAV Swarms Will Change Warfare Forever

Global Guerrillas ...