Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


October 23, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1356729
The Markit Flash Eurozone PMI shows the steepest fall in output prices since global crisis and renewed job losses, in spite of an otherwise stable PMI.

The Eurozone saw a marginal upturn in growth of business activity in October, according to the flash PMI results. The headline ...


October 23, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1356515
France

Looking for growth in Europe? You won't find it in France, but for now you can still find it in Germany (for now).

The Markit Flash France PMI shows French private sector output falls at sharpest rate in eight months.

Key Points


October 23, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1356438
Lack of significant improvement in payments by IBEX companies to suppliers is yet another another sign there isn't much of a recovery in Spain.

La Vanguardia reports Late Payments by Ibex Companies Hits €47 Billion, 169 days (nearly 3 times the legal time limit). Ibex is the ...


October 22, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1355647
In yet another embarrassing moment for the Obama administration, Isis Claims it has US Airdrop of Weapons.

A US airdrop of arms to besieged Kurds in Kobani appears to have missed its target and ended up in the hands of Islamic State (Isis) militants.

Video footage ...


October 22, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1355646
Inquiring minds are tuned into the Saxo Bank's 4th Trading Debate on Volatility and Performance.

Another "Shock Drop" in Markets

Saxo Bank CIO Steen Jakobsen says Another 'Shock Drop' is Coming and it's Coming Soon

Steen takes the view that central bank policy ...


October 21, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1355202
A 30% net income decline for McDonald's is quite startling to most. I wonder why such a decline took so long.

In response to that pathetic performance, McDonald’s Vows Fresh Thinking.

McDonald’s Corp. outlined plans for what it called fundamental changes to its business as ...


October 21, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354990
Here's an interesting video from the recent James Grant Conference. The title of this year's conference is Investing Opportunistically, Separating the Beta from the Alpha.

The first five minutes are introductions and attendee notes you may wish to skip over. The opening speech was by Marc Seidner, CFA ...


October 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1354345
In yet another potential market topping sign, M&A Deals Fail At Highest Rate Since 2008

The value of deals that fail to complete has reached its highest level since 2008, in the latest sign that the best year for mergers and acquisitions since the financial crisis will also ...


October 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1354268
On October 6, I noted German Factory Orders Slump 5.7%, Most Since January 2009.

The previous month was up 4.9%, so I averaged the two months noting "The average result is a decline of 0.4% per month, for the last two months. That process also means ...


October 20, 2014, 1:33 am, 1353793
The ECB has been concerned about falling consumer prices. I propose that's 100% stupid, yet that's the concern.

When the euro declined vs. the US dollar, the ECB was happy that inflation would inch back up. The fear now is that falling oil prices will take away the alleged ...