Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


March 20, 2016, 3:34 pm, 1619459
I announced on February 22 Goodbye Blogger, Hello WordPress: Mish's GlobalEconomicAnalysis has Moved to MishTalk.Com.

My needs outgrew blogger.

The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than the detail pages. Most of the top financial sites are organized ...


February 2, 2016, 3:33 pm, 1604597
It's been a long run, but I am leaving Google Blogger for a new home on WordPress.

Please bookmark my new site: http://mishtalk.com/

Why Leave?

My needs outgrew blogger.

The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home ...


February 2, 2016, 1:33 am, 1604338
Ted Cruz was the surprise winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses tonight edging out Donald Trump who in turn edged out Marco Rubio in a very strong voter turnout.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is just a handful of votes ahead of socialist Bernie Sanders in a vote ...


February 1, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1604162
Manufacturing in January continues its dismal track record with the latest ISM reading. Econoday reports ...

Employment sank the ISM index in January which could muster no better than a 48.2 for what, following annual revisions to 2015, is the fourth sub-50 reading in a row. ...


February 1, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1604161
Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today's anemic report.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for +0.6% in a range of 0.3% to 1.3%, but not a single economist came close.

Held down ...


February 1, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1604160
"Blue Chip" Optimism

The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts of will an anemic 1.2% whimper.

"The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. "


February 1, 2016, 1:33 am, 1603958
China's manufacturing extended its long slump according to the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI.

Chinese manufacturers signaled a modest deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2016, with both output and employment declining at slightly faster rates than in December. Total new business meanwhile fell at ...


January 31, 2016, 7:33 pm, 1603937
On January 18, I sent the article below (starting with the title Nate Silver Off the Mark on Donald Trump Nomination Odds) to the New York Times as an Op-Ed.

They did not publish it.

It's hard enough getting something timely to major new organizations, and when you ...


January 31, 2016, 1:33 pm, 1603887
Economists have a perfect track record of 100% failure in ability to predict a recession. In a recession that's at least 20% likely to have already started, Economists See 20% Chance of US Recession this Year.

A Financial Times survey of 51 economists, conducted in the days ...


January 30, 2016, 11:33 pm, 1603771
No one has called long-duration treasury yields better than Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management. He says they are going lower. If the US is in or headed for recession then I believe he is correct.

Gordon Long, founder of the Financial Repression website interviewed Lacy Hunt last week and ...