Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

April 20, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1258091
A big round of well deserved applause for Glen Greenwald is in order for willing a Pulitzer Prize for public service. Greenwald says the announcement was "really gratifying."

Please consider Glenn Greenwald Reacts To Pulitzer Prize

Glenn Greenwald told CNN's Brian Stelter on Sunday that receiving ...

April 20, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1258028
Luis de Guindos, Spain's Economy Minister, sings the praises of low inflation.

Via translation from El Economista, please consider Economy Minister Says Deflation Has "Positive Impact".

James Daniel, Spain's mission advisor to the IMF, said that inflation close to zero in the country increases the burden ...

April 19, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1257838
Illinois is broke. Its public pension plans are the most troubled in the nation.

Illinois passed massive "temporary" tax hikes to fix the pension problem, but it did not make a dent in  it.  Now, Illinois politicians want still more tax hikes.

$100 Million for Barack Obama Library ...

April 18, 2014, 7:33 pm, 1257705
In "Insatiable" the Economist says "The cost of stopping the Russian bear now is high—but it will only get higher if the West does nothing".

Economist: Mr Putin has used the Ukrainian crisis to establish some dangerous precedents. He has claimed a duty to intervene to ...

April 18, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1257696
Immediately after the 4-player Ukraine accord announcement yesterday (See Ukraine Talks End in Accord; What About the Key Missing Player?) I commented ...

Lots of Questions

This accord raises more questions than answers.

Did anyone consult the separatists?Who is going to enforce the agreement?Is there ...

April 17, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1257211
Bloomberg reports Treasuries Fall Most in a Month as Ukraine Talks End in Accord

Treasuries fell, pushing 10-year note yields up the most in a month, as talks on the crisis in Ukraine ended with an accord aimed at de-escalating the conflict, damping haven demand.

April 17, 2014, 1:33 pm, 1257133
In his strongest message yet to Ukraine, the EU, and US, Putin says Russia ready to act in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned of his readiness to deploy troops in eastern Ukraine if diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the escalating crisis there.

The threat came ...

April 17, 2014, 3:33 am, 1256816
Another bloodless coup in Ukraine is underway. This time, it's in the Donetsk region.

Should it come to that ending, it would be the third Ukrainian coup in a matter of months (counting the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovych followed by the coup in Crimea).

Talk of ...

April 16, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1256753
EL Pais reports Spanish Public Debt Threatens to Exceed 100% of GDP in 2014

Via translation

General government debt accumulated through February was 987.945 billion euros, an amount that represents 96.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). This represents a new record in the amount of money ...

April 16, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1256598
Pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine intensified their defiance against Kiev on Wednesday, seizing half a dozen armored vehicles and parading them through towns of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

The Financial Times reports Pro-Russia forces intensify defiance in eastern Ukraine

The escalating tension, a day after Kiev launched ...