Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.


Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


RSS Feed

Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849436
Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P 500

I was playing around with some ideas on the St Louis Fed "Fred" database and came up with this.



Mike "Mish" ShedlockMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849437
Unfair Competition

The nation pastime in France is striking against "unfair competition". To French socialists, the term "unfair competition" means any competition.

On Tuesday French unions decided once again to do something about the unfairness: make everyone miserable as best they can.

Flights Cancelled


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849438
What's the "official" unemployment rate vs. economic reality?

In my analysis of the monthly jobs reports on the first Friday of the month, I make a statement similar to this:

"The official unemployment rate is 5.0%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849439
Conference Board Consumer Survey

The consumer conference board does a paper survey every month on consumer confidence.

The board's technical notes say (emphasis mine) "The targeted responding sample size - approximately 3,000 completed questionnaires - has remained essentially unchanged throughout the history of the CCI."


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849435
December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate.

The outlook for the housing sector just got a boost from a sharp jump in new home sales, up 10.8 percent to a 544,000 annualized rate that is 44,000 over the Econoday consensus and ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849434
"Levels Not Seen in 80 Years"

The supply glut in oil storage continues as crude. Inventories hit new all-time highs this past week.



The above charts from EIA Weekly Supply Data shows the crude inventory of 494,920,000 (not ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849431
Crash!

Durable goods orders and shipments crashed in December.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate for durable goods new orders was a 0.2% rise. Here are the amazing results.



Crash vs. Thud

Econoday called ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849432
Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed's "Workhorse" Model is at the top of the list.

Torsten Sl√łk, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, is taking the optimistic route by drawing attention to a certain ...


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849433
On Wednesday, the Chicago Board of education pulled the plug on a proposed $875 Million Bond Sale.

Facing hefty yields, the financially ailing Chicago Public Schools (CPS) postponed Wednesday's planned $875 million bond sale and will evaluate the timing on a day-to-day basis, a school official said.


April 30, 2018, 8:07 pm, 1849430
Future of Farming

The future of farming has arrived. It's vertical, soilless, and run by robots.

Tech Insider reports World's First Robot-run farm will harvest 30,000 heads of lettuce daily.

The Japanese lettuce production company Spread believes the farmers of the future will be robots.