Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


August 3, 2015, 3:33 am, 1520681
How often do you hear a car manufacturer (or any other manufacturer) tell people to "not" buy their product because they lose money if you do?

I highly suspect this is nothing more than a purposely calculated publicity stunt, but please consider California Has a Plan to ...


August 2, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1520591
Water Outing

Restaurants in California are not supposed to serve water unless asked. Will that make much of a difference?

The answer is no, but what about car washing, sprinklers, etc.?

To pressure citizens to not waste water, California Launches "Drought Shaming" Website.

California ...


August 1, 2015, 9:33 pm, 1520231
Progression of the Police State U.S. Style

More national spotlights are on unwarranted police brutality this week. Let's start with a statement made by a Cincinnati prosecutor who charged a police officer with murder.

Prosecutor Joseph T. Deters became a national hero by stating 'When ...


August 1, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1520183
Ministry of Truth Gag Law

On July 1, Spain enacted a "gag" law that provides for showing "disrespect to police.

Among the many new repressive stipulations is a €30,000-€600,000 fine for "unauthorized protests," which can be combined for maximum effect with a €600-€300,000 fine for "disrupting public events."


July 31, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1519691
The Greek news of the day is Greek Stock Market to Reopen, With Restrictions.

Restrictions

People cannot draw on their Greek bank accounts to buy shares People can only buy shares with existing brokerage account cash
I supposed people could transfer cash from elsewhere into stocks ...


July 31, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1519601
Chicago Eyes Bonds that Delay Repayments

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has his eyes on raising money via Capital Appreciation Bonds.

CABs saddle taxpayers with higher costs because they delay interest and principle payments until a final lump-sum payment at the end.

CABs have fallen ...


July 31, 2015, 5:33 am, 1519227
Once again the IMF is back in the news in regards to Greece.

The IMF staff told the board of directors Greece Disqualified from New IMF Program.

Yet, Germany insists IMF be a part of the program. The reason for the latter is Germany ...


July 30, 2015, 5:33 pm, 1518865
Socialists Seek to Outvote Germany

In the wake of the near-Grexit, France and Italy seek more powers for the European Commission (EC).

And both countries want another parliament with more power. Their unstated goal is to create a United States of Europe where socialists would outvote the Germans.


July 30, 2015, 3:33 pm, 1518786
This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to ...


July 30, 2015, 5:33 am, 1518389
On July 1, the Spanish Government went to "Full Police State", with enactment of law forbidding dissent and unauthorized photos of law enforcement.

Spain's officially a police state now. On July 1st, its much-protested "gag" law went into effect, instantly making criminals of those protesting the new ...