Economics Roundtable

The Problem - I

Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face.


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The Problem - II

Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of the housing tailspin.


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Special Topic 8/4/10

This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the payroll employment figures from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.

ADP:  +42,000
BLS:  -131,000/+71,000


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Special Topics 6/28/10

This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.

ADP:  +13,000
BLS:  -125,000/+83,000
CBO:  Take your pick.


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Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10

James Hamilton summarizes the situation.

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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”

Recovery Fades in UK; UK Trade Deficit Hits Record; US Trade Deficit Shrinks; Jobless Claims Drop or Not?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 9, 2010, 11:34 pm, 762471
The recovery in the UK has faded, with manufacturing, housing, and services all weakening in August. In response the BOE Mulls ‘Second Wave’ of Stimulus

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King may have to embark on a new round of bond purchases as Britain’s rebound from the worst recession ...

Goldman Marks Top in Municipal Bond Market?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 9, 2010, 3:34 pm, 762309
History shows that whatever Goldman is peddling in a big way to cities, counties, or retail investors, be it interest rate swaps or derivatives, or advice, those investors would be better off not taking it.

With that in mind, please consider Goldman in Bond Deal

Goldman Sachs ...

Weekly Claims Drop to 451,000, 4-Week Moving Average at 478,000; Where to From Here?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 9, 2010, 1:34 pm, 762218
Weekly Claims fell this week to 451,000 but that number is still consistent with an economy losing jobs.

Please consider the Unemployment Weekly Claims Report for September 9, 2010.

In the week ending Sept. 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was ...

65% Fear Double-Dip, 71% Say US is Fundamentally Broken, Net 32% Expect to Reduce Spending
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 9, 2010, 3:34 am, 762044
It is quite clear the US economy is sliding back towards recession, if not still in it. The average consumer understands that, yet the average economist doesn't.

How is it that the average consumer has a better grip on the economy that the average economist? Regardless of the answer, ...

Olympic Disaster in Vancouver, Taxpayers on Hook for $1 Billion "Ghost Town"
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 8, 2010, 7:34 pm, 761961
It boggles the mind to think that anyone can possibly think of Olympics as doing anything more than throwing taxpayer money straight down the toilet. Of course vendors and real estate agents do not give a damn about the long-term consequences as long as a quick buck can be made.

Consumers Shun Credit Cards - Credit Card Usage Drops, Debit Card Usage Rises
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 8, 2010, 3:34 pm, 761846
Consumers have had enough of high interest rates on credit cards but its a case of one plastic for another. Bloomberg reports Cardholders Prefer Debit as Credit-Card Use Falls

Americans are shunning their credit cards and using debit to avoid incurring more debt, said Javelin Strategy & Research.

European Credit Stress Returns With Vengeance - Irish, Portuguese Bond Spread at All Time High - Yen Soars - Gold Hits All Time High
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 7, 2010, 11:34 pm, 761353
The risk aversion trade was back in play today with treasuries, the dollar, the Yen, and gold all rallying while the Euro and European government bonds (except German Bunds) were under significant pressure.

Please consider Stocks, Irish Bonds Drop, Gold, Yen Rally on Europe Concern

Stocks slid, while ...

B.J. Lawson Pulls Into Lead in North Carolina Over Democratic Incumbent
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 7, 2010, 3:35 pm, 761213
On Sunday, I received an email from B.J. Lawson saying he has pulled into a small lead over incumbent David Price.

B.J. Writes ...

Dear Friends,

This election will be proof positive that public sentiment has shifted towards shrinking the size of the federal government, restoring the Constitution ...

NBER Likely to say "Recession Ended" July 2009; Assessing the Real Time Probability US Back in Recession
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 7, 2010, 3:35 pm, 761212
One problem with the NBER recession dating analysis is that it is months and sometimes years late in making its assessments.

Marcelle Chauvet, professor of economics at the University of California addresses those shortfalls in an interesting article called Real Time Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle

Infrastructure Bank: Obama's Desperate Attempt to Win Midterm Democrat Votes; Stimulus Déjà Vu
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
September 7, 2010, 3:34 am, 760796
The president's pandering to public unions has backfired and now he wants to create an “infrastructure bank” which would be run by the government but would pool tax dollars with private investment.

The New York Times reports Obama Offers a Transit Plan to ...


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