Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Mish’s Global Econ. Trend Analysis

"Thoughts on the great inflation/deflation/stagflation debate as well as discussions on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and policy decisions that affect the global markets.”


December 21, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1392887
OPEC is pointing the finger at speculators as well as Non-OPEC countries, but especially US shale producers for the crude price crash.

Let's explore that idea in a series of charts. But first let's take a look at the allegation.

The Wall Street Journal reports Gulf ...


December 21, 2014, 5:33 am, 1392739
If you don't have the money, spend it anyway, says the Ukrainian government.

Of course, that's no different than the philosophy of any other country, including the US.

In this case, however, Ukraine's borders on default.

Please consider Ukraine Can’t Scrimp on Military Spending as ...


December 20, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1392694
What will become of YouTube?

It started from nowhere about 10 years ago as an idea with no revenue and no content, then pretty quickly lots of content coupled with a plethora of copyright infringement lawsuits.

Today, YouTube gets 300 million hours of watching every day. Top content ...


December 19, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1392473
On December 17, ZeroHedge asked Will Putin's Next Step Be To Sell Gold?

On December 18, ZeroHedge answered his own question wrongly with Russia Has Begun Selling Its Gold, According To SocGen.

I did not believe that when I saw it yesterday, and I ...


December 19, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1392378
Abolition of rent controls in Spain this month have prompted some landlords to increase fees by tens of thousands of euros. The Guardian claims Spanish rent changes ‘could close 20,000 small businesses’.

Is this a good thing? Ponder that question for a moment, but also consider a few ...


December 18, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1391841
Theory #1: Break-Even Rates Provide "Deflation Warning"

Bloomberg is sounding a Deflation Warning as 2-Year Break-Even Rates Go Negative.

Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009.


December 18, 2014, 3:33 pm, 1391696
Here's and amusing but totally unscientific informal poll on how to tackle the illegal immigrant problem.

Students were asked if they would sign a petition to deport US citizens on a one-for-one basis in exchange for allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the US.


December 17, 2014, 9:33 pm, 1391140
Not only is torture against international law, it also produces no useful intelligence. Common sense is enough to prove that statement.

If someone threatened to rape your sister, kill your mom, or shackled you until you were half-dead while feeding you up your anus, you would say nearly anything ...


December 17, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1391048
Today the Fed made its much awaited FOMC Announcement.

Pundits poring over the statement have generally concluded as does the Financial Times, that Fed Signals Tightening by Mid-2015.

Why?

Because the Fed dropped its forecast that it will keep low interest rates for a "considerable ...


December 17, 2014, 5:33 pm, 1391047
Sanctions and embargoes don't work. And in the case of Cuba, it took the US 52 years to partially realize that.

In 1962, President John F. Kennedy singed into law a Cuban trade embargo. I have long known how foolish Kennedy's decision was (and the decision of every president ...