Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Skeptical Optimist


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295984
Okay, so those aren't big surprises to anyone who has visited this blog in past seven years. But I expect they will surprise many readers at American.com, the online magazine of the American Enterprise Institute. Here's a link to my...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295983
How is Uncle Sam's credit these days? According to the free market, U.S. Treasury securities are one of the safest investments on the entire planet—in other words, it's about as good as it gets. Uncle Sam is able to sell...


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295982
Everybody is for "fiscal responsibility" -- but that term has at least four different meanings, not one of which is simple to defend. To see the four possibilities, check out my latest article at American.com: "What Does 'Fiscal Responsibility' Mean?"


July 2, 2014, 11:33 pm, 1295981
Our past experience with changes in the capital gains tax should be a warning about the potential unintended effects of a Buffett rule. Here's the article at American.com explaining why.