Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


RSS Feed

EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


June 29, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1649596

Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

I see a possible way out for the trap that Brits now find themselves in, a way ...


June 28, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1649223

I find it remarkable that, going by the numbers, economic policy uncertainty is now higher than after the bankruptcy of Lehman — and even higher than in the days after 9/11.


June 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648599

Here are my two pence on some of the consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

A key goal of the EU was to allow freer movements of goods, services, and people across countries. The potential economic benefits of such freedom are well known. Access ...


June 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1648321

Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate.

Hillary Clinton ...


June 24, 2016, 1:03 am, 1648058

As assessed probability of Brexit rises, pound falls.

USD per Pound, last 5 days, as of 4AM London time. Source: Bloomberg.

Pound is down 9.29% against USD since London close (5PM ...


June 24, 2016, 1:03 am, 1648057

Here are some assessments of the economic impact on the UK economy, over the short (business cycle horizon) to long run.

Table 2 from Angus Armstrong and Jonathan ...


June 23, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1648027

Some critics (e.g., [1]) have argued that employment and coincident indicators are too narrow of measures of economic activity to make relevant comparisons. Here I plot the real GDP — the broadest measure of economic activity — for Kansas and her neighbors.


June 22, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1647602

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Yi Zhang, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This post draws upon this paper.

Since 1982, the Fed has targeted the federal funds rate as the primary instrument of monetary policy. But from late 2008 onward, the ...


June 22, 2016, 3:03 am, 1647384

Heretofore, I’ve approached in a piecemeal manner the assessment of the impact of massive tax cuts for the wealthy, building a really, really great wall, a final solution for the presence of undocumented immigrants, and the imposition a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. Moody’s Mark Zandi et al. have ...


June 21, 2016, 3:03 am, 1647035

Defenders of the Kansas and Wisconsin misadventures in supply side economics keep on pointing to North Carolina as the counter-example that proves tax cuts do prompt faster growth (e.g., [1] [2]). A quick look at the data provides the following observations: (1) North Carolina GDP growth has merely ...