Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303865

Here’s the introduction to a new paper I just finished:

This year the oil industry celebrated its 155th birthday, continuing a rich history of booms, busts and dramatic technological changes. Many old hands in the oil patch may view recent developments as a continuation of the same old story, wondering ...

July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303866

In a recent article, Amity Shlaes asserts official statistics mismeasure how we experience inflation. I’m going to agree, but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not because John Williams’ Shadowstats, which she appeals to, is right (Jim has comprehensively documented why each and every person who ...

July 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1303735

Production flows from a given oil field naturally decline over time, but we keep trying harder and technology keeps improving. Which force is winning the race?

An oil reservoir is a pool of hydrocarbons embedded and trapped under pressure in porous rock. As oil is taken out, the ...

July 17, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1302811

State level employment data will be released by the BLS on Friday, but state agencies have already released data (h/t J. Miller) confirming that Wisconsin private employment performance deteriorates, while Kansas continues to trend sideways.

Figure 1: Log private nonfarm ...

July 17, 2014, 3:03 am, 1302210

Today, we’re fortunate to have Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Assistant Professor of Economics at Lehigh University, David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, respectively Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors

The “Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act of ...

July 17, 2014, 1:03 am, 1302183

After the shocker of -2.9% growth (SAAR) in 2014Q1, all eyes have been on Q2. Macroeconomic Advisers released its estimate for May — a 0.2% increase on April (2% on an annualized basis).

Figure 1 presents the Macroeconomic Advisers and e-forecasting estimates, as well as the BEA official figures ...

July 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1301265

This is not the most erudite debate, but it pretty much sums up matters.

Reality check: Figure 1 below depicts the evolution of the nominal trade weighted dollar, inflation and Treasurys.

Figure 1: Nominal trade weighted ...

July 13, 2014, 11:03 am, 1300272

Quick links to a few items I found interesting.

Nowcasts of GDP. Want to know what the latest economic releases imply for the current quarter’s GDP? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now making publicly available the forecasts from its GDPnow model which is updated with each new ...

July 10, 2014, 9:03 am, 1299097

From Reuters today:

Russia’s economy is stagnating as data showed on Wednesday that capital worth $75 billion has left the country so far this year following sanctions on Moscow over its involvement in Ukraine.

“We have for now a period of stagnation, or a pause in growth,” Deputy Economy Minister ...

July 9, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1298921

Reader Rick Stryker writes, after asserting Paul Krugman has misrepresented history:

…apologists fall back on the claim that Obamacare is a conservative idea. … That’s nonsense.

Let me quote from A National Health System for America (Heritage Foundation, 1989), chapter 2, by Stuart A. Butler, Director of Domestic ...