Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.

Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

RSS Feed

EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

December 16, 2018, 12:37 am, 1929693

Around the world, some 10 year-3 month government bond yield spreads are shrinking.

Figure 1 shows ten spreads as of 4/18/2018 and 12/14/2018.

Figure 1: Ten year – three month government bond spreads as ...

December 14, 2018, 7:45 pm, 1929562


Photo of Jakelin Ameí Rosmery Caal Maquin follows.

Source: Jacob Soboroff.

More on Trump’s border policies in 2018, here.

December 13, 2018, 1:46 pm, 1929161

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on December 10th.

When President George H.W. ...

December 12, 2018, 11:26 am, 1928780

The PPI for farm products was released yesterday.

Figure 1: PPI for farm products, 1982=100. Light orange shading denotes Trump Administration. Source: BLS.

Farm commodity prices have been depressed by trade retaliation spurred by US ...

December 11, 2018, 10:07 pm, 1928634

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Saiah Lee, Ph.D. candidate in economics at UW Madison.

Central banks make monetary policy decisions based on noisy and incomplete real-time data, and reliance on inaccurate data may yield suboptimal policy decisions. In my new paper, Monetary Policy ...

December 11, 2018, 7:45 pm, 1928619

Bruce Hall writes:

…the oil “shortage” crises in the U.S. was pretty much a political phenomenon of the West supporting Israel during the 1967 war (which party was in power then?) and being boycotted by the Arab countries.

For the love of …, in this age of the internet, can’t people ...

December 11, 2018, 4:36 pm, 1928587

Here is a time series of PredictIt’s odds for a government closure per OMB at noon, 24 December 2018. Red line at WH meeting.

Figure 1: Market odds of government closure on noon December 24, 2018. Source:

December 11, 2018, 1:06 pm, 1928500

Maury Obstfeld this month completes his exemplary term as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His departing economic outlook foresees slowing growth in the world economy in 2019 and 2020.

Gita Gopinath, my Harvard colleague, will take up the position in the new year.  (Technically the ...

December 11, 2018, 11:35 am, 1928471

Back nearly a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.

Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as ...

December 9, 2018, 6:37 pm, 1927900

Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements. Here I offer a few thoughts.

Although there has been a dramatic drop in the S&P500 since October, the market had been up pretty significantly from the start of the year up to that point. ...