January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
EconBrowser (James Hamilton)
"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”
The contributors are all prominent scholars in the field of Pacific Rim economics. Several are familiar Econbrowser guest contributors, or highlighted in posts ...
Estimated insurance coverage costs revised downward.
As Russia fosters heightened instability in the eastern portions of Ukraine , we should be considering what methods will impose maximum pain on Russian policymakers. Already, the Russian economy has taken a hit, even while in an already fragile state. 
From Robert Kahn at CFR:
The increase in vertical specialization in Asia has implications for the strength of linkages between the region’s economies, and the tendency to manage intra-regional exchange rates.
From the paper:
First, the conventional means of measuring international competitiveness are going to be less and less adequate, as production becomes more fragmented. ...
Recent indications are that, in the face of declining inflation, the ECB’s Draghi is considering embarking upon quantitative easing. Despite the technical difficulties accompanying such a measure  I believe additional stimulative measures are nonetheless called for.
This figure from the recently released World Economic Outlook (p.55) demonstrates ...
No catch-up in sight for Wisconsin with Minnesota (or the Nation, for that matter)
In a previous post, I noted that the most recent revisions had widened the gap between Wisconsin and other economies. Recently released forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed indicate the gaps will persist.
From the IMF:
…Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature ...
The Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce group has a recent piece, written by Scott Manley (VP), highlighting negative impacts of a minimum wage increase. I have attempted to track down the numbers cited. It has been an illuminating experience.
From the article:
A recent analysis by the Employment Policies Institute ...
Although the final game won’t be played until tonight, we already know the winner of the challenge, since none of the prognosticators in our competition picked either of the teams playing in the championship game. ...
Last week ECB President Mario Draghi revealed that the European Central Bank has been considering large-scale asset purchases as a tool to prevent European inflation from falling too far below the ECB’s target rate of 2%. What is the evidence for the effectiveness of these policies, and are ...