Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


December 18, 2014, 11:03 am, 1391469

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.

Oil prices plummeted 43% during the course of 2014 – good news for oil-importing ...


December 16, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1390330

As I watch the financial meltdown in Russia (and work on a chapter on financial crises), I am pervaded by a sense of dj vu.

As Paul Krugman notes, the unfolding of the crisis is not mysterious, although the timing — and ferocity — is somewhat unexpected. Figure ...


December 16, 2014, 3:03 am, 1389708

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Luis Brando-Marques, Senior Economist, Gaston Gelos, Chief of the Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, and Natalia Melgar, Economist, all at the IMF. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed ...


December 14, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1388946

West Texas Intermediate sold for $105 a barrel at the start of July, but ended last week at $58. The most important factor has been surging U.S. production. But another reason oil prices have slid so much is weakness in demand for the product, which may be ...


December 11, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1387814

Republicans are keen to sacrifice CBO’s role as impartial arbiter of fiscal measures on the altar of “dynamic scoring” of tax measures.[0] But there is no economic reason for restricting this approach to only tax measures.

First, on tax measures, from Jane Gravelle in a Congressional Research Service ...


December 9, 2014, 1:03 am, 1385571

That’s the title of a book edited by Benno Ferrarini (ADB) and David Hummels (Purdue).

From the Asian Development Bank’s website

Bringing to bear an array of the latest methods and data to study global value chains, ...


December 7, 2014, 11:03 am, 1384679

A large literature has examined the effects on employment of raising the minimum wage, with different researchers arriving at conflicting conclusions. The core reason that economists can’t answer questions like this better is that we usually can’t run controlled experiments. There is always some reason that the legislators chose to ...


December 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1384299

Government borrowing costs are spiking.

Source: FT.

From FastFT:

The Russian central bank’s intervention has bolstered the rouble today, but the country’s government bonds are tumbling.

The 10-year Russian local government bond yield has rocketed 60 basis points to 11.76 per cent, ...


December 5, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1384231

Just wondering — where is Ed Lazear when you need him?

Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll employment normalized on 2009M06 trough (blue), and on 2001M11 trough (red). NBER defined troughs. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, and author’s calculations.

Normalizing on beginning ...


December 5, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1384149

Nonfarm payroll employment clocks in substantially above consensus (Bloomberg: mean 230,000, range 140,000 to 275,000), solidifying trend growth. Previous months’ estimates revised upward. Wages continue to rise, but labor costs in productivity adjusted terms are stable.

Figure 1: Log nonfarm payroll ...