Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


November 25, 2014, 1:03 am, 1377246

The Department of Revenue’s Wisconsin Economic Outlook, released last week, details a noticeable deterioration in forecasted economic performance, in just the past eight months.

Figure 1: Real personal income (bn Ch.09$, SAAR) (thick blue, thick red), and forecast from March 2014 ...


November 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1376494

For the last 4 years, the national average retail price of gasoline in the United States stayed within a range of $3.25-$4.00 a gallon. But that all changed this fall, with U.S. consumers now paying an average price of $2.82.


November 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1376371

(For the youth of today, here is the reference.)

I see Americans for Tax Reform is against reappointment of Doug Elmendorf as CBO head. It is a remarkable document, insofar as it is so full of factual errors that the head spins. Montgomery at WaPo provides a ...


November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376336

The Walker Administration’s Economic Outlook forecasts private employment in January 2015 will be 115 thousand below the goal set forth by Governor Walker in August 2013. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment will not reattain prior peak levels until 2015Q2.

Figure 1 depicts how far employment is lagging Walker’s pledge, even ...


November 18, 2014, 3:03 am, 1373169

Instead of a 0.2% q/q increase as in the WSJ survey, GDP declined 0.4% [0] [1] It’s pretty bad news, but here are a couple of observations, following up on my previous post on Japan.

Figure 1: Log ...


November 16, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1372434

Americans are living longer and retiring earlier. But how, as an individual or as a country, can you finance a 30-year retirement with a 40-year career? Stanford Professor John Shoven recently visited UCSD and presented some interesting policy suggestions.


November 14, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1371667

Action is needed in the eurozone and Japan, according to the Treasury Secretary.

From Secretary Lew’s recent speech:

“In short, status quo policies in Europe have not achieved our common G-20 objective of strong, sustainable, and balanced growth. The ECB has taken forceful steps to support the economy through ...


November 13, 2014, 1:03 am, 1370298

The proceedings start tomorrow.

My colleague Charles Engel covers “http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars
/2014/arc/pdf/engel.pdf”
, while other topics include ECB monetary policy spillovers, Fed policy and foreign bond yields, linkages across sovereign bond yields, fiscal shock effects, capital controls, currency unions and capital markets, and input trade ...


November 12, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1370144

The deterioration in Kansas state finances not only continues unabated — it is seemingly accelerating.

Figure 1 presents the evolution of estimates of Kansas state general fund receipts.



Figure 1: Kansas state general fund receipts, as estimated by Kansas Legislative ...


November 10, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1368630

Implications for the dollar’s trajectory

A few days ago, reader Tom chastised me for announcing “somebody’s estimations of a theoretical, unobservable phenomenon” as known. Today, I will repeat that alleged offense in regard to the counterfactual known as the purchasing power parity exchange rate, a pervasive concept in international ...