May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Here’s the introduction to a new paper I just finished:
This year the oil industry celebrated its 155th birthday, continuing a rich history of booms, busts and dramatic technological changes. Many old hands in the oil patch may view recent developments as a continuation of the same old story, wondering ...
In a recent article, Amity Shlaes asserts official statistics mismeasure how we experience inflation. I’m going to agree, but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not because John Williams’ Shadowstats, which she appeals to, is right (Jim has comprehensively documented why each and every person who ...
Production flows from a given oil field naturally decline over time, but we keep trying harder and technology keeps improving. Which force is winning the race?
An oil reservoir is a pool of hydrocarbons embedded and trapped under pressure in porous rock. As oil is taken out, the ...
State level employment data will be released by the BLS on Friday, but state agencies have already released data (h/t J. Miller) confirming that Wisconsin private employment performance deteriorates, while Kansas continues to trend sideways.
Figure 1: Log private nonfarm ...
Today, we’re fortunate to have Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Assistant Professor of Economics at Lehigh University, David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, respectively Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors
After the shocker of -2.9% growth (SAAR) in 2014Q1, all eyes have been on Q2. Macroeconomic Advisers released its estimate for May — a 0.2% increase on April (2% on an annualized basis).
Figure 1 presents the Macroeconomic Advisers and e-forecasting estimates, as well as the BEA official figures ...
This is not the most erudite debate, but it pretty much sums up matters.
Reality check: Figure 1 below depicts the evolution of the nominal trade weighted dollar, inflation and Treasurys.
Figure 1: Nominal trade weighted ...
Quick links to a few items I found interesting.
Nowcasts of GDP. Want to know what the latest economic releases imply for the current quarter’s GDP? The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now making publicly available the forecasts from its GDPnow model which is updated with each new ...
From Reuters today:
Russia’s economy is stagnating as data showed on Wednesday that capital worth $75 billion has left the country so far this year following sanctions on Moscow over its involvement in Ukraine.
“We have for now a period of stagnation, or a pause in growth,” Deputy Economy Minister ...
Reader Rick Stryker writes, after asserting Paul Krugman has misrepresented history:
…apologists fall back on the claim that Obamacare is a conservative idea. … That’s nonsense.
Let me quote from A National Health System for America (Heritage Foundation, 1989), chapter 2, by Stuart A. Butler, Director of Domestic ...