Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

April 24, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1461357

And actually decline, in dollar terms.

Figure 1 displays total reserves and non-advanced country reserves, denominated in US dollars.

Figure 1: Foreign exchange reserves, total (blue), and held by non-advanced countries (red), in trillions of USD. Source: IMF COFER.

Note the drop ...

April 23, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1460662

In his criticism of the Trans Pacific Partnership, Senator Schumer discussed at length the need to counter currency manipulation, with particular reference to China. (See developments here.)

This is an odd focus, given that China is not involved in the TPP. I’ll leave that point aside, and note that ...

April 22, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1459786

Poverty, using official measures or including non-cash transfers, rises in Wisconsin (while the official measure declines in the US).

The invaluable Wisconsin Poverty Report, coauthored by Tim Smeeding, Julia Isaacs and Katherine Thornton under the auspices of the Institute for Research on Poverty, has just been released.

The key ...

April 19, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1457954

The economy has steadily been moving closer to the Fed’s long-run objectives. But we’re still not there yet.

Congress has given the Federal Reserve the dual mandates of maintaining price stability and full employment. The Fed has interpreted this in practice to mean an inflation rate of ...

April 17, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1457564

Wisconsin employment falls in March; continues to lag the Nation.

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment from December 2014 (blue), February 2015 (red), March 2015 (green). March release from DWD. Source: BLS, and WI DWD.

The big shift downward is due ...

April 17, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1457534

Winter for …

From Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

The University of Wisconsin-Madison will eliminate about 400 positions, most of them vacant, and will close or restructure several academic programs across campus over the next two years in response to state budget cuts, Chancellor Rebecca Blank announced on her blog Friday.

The College ...

April 16, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1456879

I’ve been wrapping up some long term projects (not planned as long term — they just took longer than expected) on interest rate parity and term spreads, and that spurred me to look at current patterns in interest rates. Some quick observations: interest rates remain higher in emerging markets than ...

April 16, 2015, 3:03 am, 1456209

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (USC and NBER), Yothin Jinjarak (Victoria Business School), and Huanhuan Zheng (Chinese University of Hong Kong). This post is based upon the paper of the same title.

China has been a prime ...

April 14, 2015, 1:03 am, 1454767

One important factor in the growth prospects for the US economy is the trajectory of the dollar. [1] If dollar stabilizes a March levels, US economic growth might rebound. On the other hand, continued appreciation bodes ill. Based on history over the floating rate era, the expected duration of ...

April 10, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1453576

My wife, Laura Schwendinger, is having her composition, “Creature Quartet”, premiered at the Wisconsin Union Theater on May 8th. The Quartet is made up of four larger movements which are framed by smaller movements, each one an ode to an extinct, endangered or mythical creature.

The performance will ...