Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

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The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794448

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

What does international trade have to do with US jobs? Surely the US trade deficit in ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794449

Employment underperforming the February Budget forecast; output too. Philadelphia Fed indices say activity is flat. A time series forecast using forward-looking indicators implies a continued rise in the unemployment rate.

Ever since the Wisconsin Department of Revenue stopped publishing the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (see here for discussion), I’ve been ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794450

Gavin Ekins argues that it’s Time to Shoulder Aside “Crowding Out” As an Excuse Not to Do Tax Reform. From the introduction:

Government budget deficits do absorb a portion of national or global saving, diverting the saving from supporting private investment. This is known as “crowding out.” However, saving ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794451

In trying to explain why Canada has lower gun death rates than the US, Bruce Hall boldly asserts that Canada is more ethnically homogenous than the US. I wonder in this data-rich era why people make bold assertions like this.

Mr. Hall bases his assertion on data analyzed by ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794447

Recall the Walker Administration termed the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) the “gold standard” of employment measures. I thought it useful to compare the QCEW figures on manufacturing against the establishment survey. Here is the twelve month growth rate under the two measures (the QCEW data is ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794446

And resulting impending cuts to Medicare.

Per CBO letter released yesterday.



Figure 1: Federal budget balance to GDP, by FY, baseline (blue), and under Tax Cut and Jobs ...


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794443

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today released new employment data for October. Manufacturing employment surged in the establishment data, but the contemporaneously released additional three months of data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (through June) suggests slower manufacturing growth.


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794444

Here’s a metaphorical picture:


Source: AP/Jacquelyn Martin via Garber.

and here’s a more technical depiction.


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794445

Kansas employment nosedived in June, and has bounced back since the Brownback tax cut was rolled back. Kansas employment is catching up with Missouri after lagging. The Philadelphia Fed’s coincident and leading indices also point to a recovery in Kansas.


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794442

As noted in this earlier post, the distributional consequences of the House Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should include the spending cuts. According to CBO, there will be a $25 billion cut to Medicare unless independent legislation is passed. From TPM:

…automatic cuts spring into action anytime Congress passes ...