Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


July 27, 2014, 11:03 am, 1306145

Three years ago I called attention to the NYU Stern Volatility Laboratory. Since then it’s grown into an even more amazing resource, giving anyone access to constantly updated information about financial conditions in dozens of countries around the globe. Of particular interest are recent changes in ...


July 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1305611

From BBC:

Russia’s central bank has unexpectedly raised its key bank interest rate over concerns about inflation and “geopolitical tension”.

The bank’s board decided to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, or half a percent, to 8% per year.

The Central Bank of Russia said on Friday that ...


July 25, 2014, 1:03 am, 1305206

I was at the NBER Summer Institute’s meeting of the International Finance and Macro group where (in addition to finally meeting Jim Hamilton) I had the opportunity to hear two papers on a topic near and dear to me — namely the relationship between the forward premium (the gap ...


July 24, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1305010

“Trolls Just Want to Have Fun”

I have been thinking about this paper, particularly over the past day:

…Across two studies and two measures of trolling,…[trolls] displayed high levels of the Dark Tetrad [narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadistic personality] traits and a BFI [Big Five Inventory] profile consistent ...


July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303866

In a recent article, Amity Shlaes asserts official statistics mismeasure how we experience inflation. I’m going to agree, but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not because John Williams’ Shadowstats, which she appeals to, is right (Jim has comprehensively documented why each and every person who ...


July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303865

Here’s the introduction to a new paper I just finished:

This year the oil industry celebrated its 155th birthday, continuing a rich history of booms, busts and dramatic technological changes. Many old hands in the oil patch may view recent developments as a continuation of the same old story, wondering ...


July 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1303735

Production flows from a given oil field naturally decline over time, but we keep trying harder and technology keeps improving. Which force is winning the race?

An oil reservoir is a pool of hydrocarbons embedded and trapped under pressure in porous rock. As oil is taken out, the ...


July 17, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1302811

State level employment data will be released by the BLS on Friday, but state agencies have already released data (h/t J. Miller) confirming that Wisconsin private employment performance deteriorates, while Kansas continues to trend sideways.

Figure 1: Log private nonfarm ...


July 17, 2014, 3:03 am, 1302210

Today, we’re fortunate to have Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Assistant Professor of Economics at Lehigh University, David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, respectively Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors

The “Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act of ...


July 17, 2014, 1:03 am, 1302183

After the shocker of -2.9% growth (SAAR) in 2014Q1, all eyes have been on Q2. Macroeconomic Advisers released its estimate for May — a 0.2% increase on April (2% on an annualized basis).

Figure 1 presents the Macroeconomic Advisers and e-forecasting estimates, as well as the BEA official figures ...