Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


March 23, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1731273

We all know that the CBO has been under assault over the recent scoring of the AHCA (14 million reduction in coverage by 2018, 26 million by 2026), with allegations that their previous projections have been “wrong”. I document in this post that CBO macro projections have been ...


March 21, 2017, 8:04 am, 1730394

That’s the title of a new EconoFact memo written by me:

Nearly 70 percent of rural votes cast in the 2016 election went to Donald Trump. This phenomenon has been attributed in part to the declining fortunes of farmers. But rather than helping reverse this trend, several of the ...


March 14, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1728646

Since Mr. Mulvaney has been criticizing the numbers produced by the BLS [1], and scoring by CBO [2], I thought it of interest to see Mr. Mulvaney’s record on predictions. To make things easy on Mr. Mulvaney, I thought it would be more fair to evaluate his “nowcasting” ...


March 13, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1728286

“I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.”
Donald J. Trump, September 27, 2016

CBO has released its cost estimate. President Trump’s ...


March 12, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1727948

March Madness returns! All are invited to sign up for the world famous tenth annual Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge, in which you can demonstrate your inability to predict the outcome of the U.S. college men’s basketball tournament. If you want to participate, go to the Econbrowser group ...


March 11, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1727805

Hiro Ito, who updates our de jure financial openness index (sometimes known as the Chinn-Ito index), has recently calculated GDP-weighted averages of the indices for country categories. The stylized facts regarding the evolution of openness changes, particularly with regard to emerging market economies.

First, here are the typically ...


March 10, 2017, 12:04 am, 1727413

From The Hill:

If you’re looking at the CBO for accuracy, you’re looking in the wrong place,” White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Wednesday.

Since Mr. Spicer’s BA is in government rather than economics, I thought it useful to consult some documentation based on quantitative assessment. Here are ...


March 9, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1727315

Today, the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released establishment data benchmarked to data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages through September of 2016. Briefly, Wisconsin employment continues to lag the Nation, and its neighbor Minnesota.


March 8, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1726884

National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro writes in the WSJ:

The national-security argument that trade deficits matter begins with this accounting identity: Any deficit in the current account caused by imbalanced trade must be offset by a surplus in the capital account, meaning foreign investment in the U.S.

… running ...


March 7, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1726479

That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg yesterday.

“I remain concerned, particularly in an environment where you’re talking about cutting the budget, that a victim in that exercise could be the production of good data,” Glenn Hubbard, who served as chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic ...