Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


January 20, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1712255

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by James Kwak, professor at the University of Connecticut School of Law. He is the author of Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality, and contributor to The Baseline Scenario.

Republicans are in a pickle. Last week, ...


January 19, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1712030

Civilian employment and nonfarm payroll employment both decline.

Here is Wisconsin NFP employment compared to Minnesota and the US.



Figure 1: Minnesota nonfarm payroll employment (blue), Wisconsin (red), ...


January 19, 2017, 2:04 am, 1711749

…because he thought he knew better.


January 18, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1711640

From the CBO yesterday:

CBO and JCT estimate that enacting [H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act of 2015, which would repeal portions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) eliminating, in two steps, the law’s mandate penalties and subsidies but leaving the ACA’s insurance market reforms in place] ...


January 17, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1711348

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared on January 13th in Project Syndicate.

At the end of his ...


January 17, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1711310

From Wells Fargo Economics Group today, data relevant to Donald J. Trump’s comments regarding Congressman John Lewis’s district:

Growth Finally Kicked Into Higher Gear in 2016
Atlanta finally got its mojo back in 2016, as hiring ramped up and residential and commercial construction gained momentum. The 29-county ...


January 15, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1710727

Economists have had a lot of interest recently in whether uncertainty itself may have measurable effects on the economy. Last week I participated in a session devoted to economic research on this question at the meetings of the Allied Social Science Association in Chicago. Here I relate ...


January 15, 2017, 12:04 am, 1710628

Donald Trump today:

Congressman John Lewis should spend more time on fixing and helping his district, which is in horrible shape and falling apart (not to mention crime infested).

As usual, data and Mr. Trump are distant strangers.

According to the American Community Survey, median household income in Georgia’s Fifth ...


January 13, 2017, 12:04 am, 1710184

From Furman, Russ and Shambaugh:

[t]ariffs are imposed in a regressive manner – in part because expenditures on traded goods are a higher share of income and non-housing consumption among lower income households, but also due to explicit regressivity within categories.

Figure 3 depicts the relative burden of tariffs, by ...


January 12, 2017, 2:04 am, 1709862

Elevated real interest rates and policy uncertainty explain a dollar about 4% higher than election day.

For a formal assessment of the determinants of dollar exchange rates over lower frequencies, see this paper/post. But since the beginning of 2016, the daily value of the US dollar has been ...