Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


April 25, 2018, 6:36 pm, 1845671

From WSJ op-ed via AEI:

The second factor [in the slow recovery] is less obvious, but possibly also of great importance…. Congress and [the] President signaled their intentions to introduce major changes in taxes, government spending and regulations–changes that could radically transform the American economy.

… other government proposals created greater ...


April 25, 2018, 1:45 am, 1845179

Reader CoRev argues that economic uncertainty indicators such as the Baker, Bloom and Davis based on content analysis of newspaper articles are instances of GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). Here is a plot of another indicator suggesting current elevated uncertainty.


April 23, 2018, 12:06 am, 1844187

Once again, is economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis news index, elevated during the Trump era?

There are many ways to answer this. First, is to look at whether the index (or average of index) is above the full sample average (the unconditional mean), ...


April 21, 2018, 5:25 pm, 1844013

A recent article on the predictive abilities yield curves (Shrager/Quartz) includes a nifty interactive which allows you to look at yield curves over time. Below, I do a snapshot comparison, across the world.


April 21, 2018, 1:24 pm, 1843999


Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning 2016M11; deaths inflicted by non-Muslims (dark red), wounded inflicted by non-Muslims (pink), deaths inflicted by Muslims (dark blue), wounded ...


April 21, 2018, 1:24 pm, 1843998


Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning 2016M11; deaths inflicted by non-Muslims (dark red), wounded inflicted by non-Muslims (pink), deaths inflicted by Muslims (dark blue), wounded ...


April 20, 2018, 5:45 pm, 1843885

Despite reader Ed Hanson‘s comment:

[T]he current Monthly EPU is at an elevated level, but it has been at this elevated level 7 out of the past 9 years. The elevated value is better described as normal for about the last decade.

And his concluding admonishment:

Perspective, Menzie

I still believe that ...


April 20, 2018, 11:05 am, 1843695

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate on April 17th.


April 19, 2018, 1:24 pm, 1843338

Why do reported growth rates differ for the same variable? Refer to the last three years of GDP data to see…


Figure 1: Quarterly GDP, SAAR, FRED series GDPC1 ...


April 19, 2018, 12:06 am, 1843118

Deregulatory moves, both actual and anticipated, have been hailed as spurring business fixed investment [1] Is there content to this assertion? A glance at nonresidential fixed investment seems to be supportive.