Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


July 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1657116

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

When interviewed about the unemployment numbers, which have fallen steadily since 2010, Donald Trump Jr., replied “These are ...


July 25, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1657003

A reader asserts:

“[UK] Yield curve has been on a slide since 2010. Nothing to do with Brexit.

Check out global yield curve, looks similar to UK in that it has been on the slide for years as well.

It’s true yield curves have been flattening (as noted in this ...


July 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1656706

Political Calculations makes some more ([1], [2]) elementary errors with chained quantities, to arrive at incorrect — and misleading — measures of real GDP excluding government consumption and investment.

First, here is the figure that Political Calculations displays:


July 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1656458

UK PMI collapses. Term spread moves toward inversion.

From yesterday’s FT:

A special edition of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a well-regarded survey of activity produced by research group Markit – has been published to provide a picture of how the UK economy has fared after the referendum. The ...


July 23, 2016, 9:03 am, 1656430

Wisconsin nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment is 63.2 thousand below what historical correlations with national employment would imply.

I use the observed relationship between US and Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment over the 1994M01-2009M06 (NBER recession trough) period to construct a counterfactual for the 2009M07-2016M06 period, where ex post realizations of US ...


July 21, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1655902

That’s the title of a book commissioned by the Norges Bank on the bicentennial of the Bank’s founding, and edited by Michael D. Bordo, Øyvind Eitrheim, Marc Flandreau and Jan F. Qvigstad (published by Cambridge University Press). Here’s the table of contents:


Preface
Michael D. Bordo, Øyvind Eitrheim, Marc ...


July 19, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1655013

Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate, July 13.

Many parallels have been pointed out between the June referendum on ...


July 17, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1654371

Despite aggressive actions by central banks, many of the world’s economies are still stagnating and facing new shocks, leading to renewed calls for helicopter money as a serious policy prescription for countries like Japan and the U.K.. And, if things go badly, maybe the United States?


July 14, 2016, 11:03 am, 1653643

Do shocks to agriculture and aircraft really explain Kansas’s dismal economic performance? If only one looked at Kansas GDP, would Kansas look just terrific?

Political Calculations takes me to task, claiming my analyses of the Kansas economy equate to “junk science.” Further, he argues that the use of ...


July 13, 2016, 5:03 am, 1653196

There’s a lot of discussion of the flattening of the yield curve, and what it portends, in the US (see this post, Irwin/NYT). Interestingly, yield curves are flattening around the world, even in some emerging markets.

Figure 1 shows 10 year-3 month term spreads for selected countries.