Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

February 11, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1607680

Benn Steil and Emma Smith at the Council on Foreign Relations present an interesting picture of Chinese reserves.

They write:

The People’s Bank of China has been selling off foreign currency ...

February 10, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1607339

The Philadelphia Fed has released leading indicators for December. Essentially zero growth over the next six months is predicted.

Figure 1 compares the performance of the indicators for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Nation, normalized on 2011M01 (when Governors Dayton and Walker took office).

February 9, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1606908

Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Yin-Wong Cheung (City University of Hong Kong), Sven Steinkamp (Universitt Osnabrck) and Frank Westermann (Universitt Osnabrck).

After 7 years of highly expansionary monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to pursue a new policy stance, ...

February 9, 2016, 1:03 am, 1606617

Or, breaking up the big banks might provide some visceral joy, but it’s not clear to me that solves the key problem of financial fragility in modern capitalist systems.

I recently talked on C-SPAN’s BookTV about my book, Lost Decades, coauthored in Jeffry Frieden. In it, I recounted the ...

February 7, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1606179

For an economy with underutilized resources or too low a rate of inflation the traditional prescription for monetary policy is to lower the interest rate. Central banks around the world tried to do that in response to stubbornly weak economies, bringing the overnight interest rate in many countries ...

February 6, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1606032

From FoxNews6:

“Gov. Scott Walker is set to sign a bill that would allow people to carry concealed switchblades and knives.”

February 5, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1605890

The employment release provided some interesting insights into how manufacturing has fared, in the wake of the appreciation of the dollar (and the slowdown in the world economy).

In particular, manufacturing employment growth registered at the high end of the range experienced over the past year, as noted by

February 4, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1605518

Figure 1: 12 month moving average of mass shooting casualties; deaths (dark red), wounded (pink). Source: Mother Jones, for January 2016, and author’s calculations.

February 4, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1605517

That’s the title of a new, and illuminating, report written by Eswar Prasad. The entire report is here. This is a must-read for those interested in RMB internationalization.

February 2, 2016, 1:03 am, 1604323

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Dae Woong Kang, Nick Ligthart, and Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University.

Although the Great Recession was viewed—especially in Europe—as mainly a U.S. problem, the eurozone was ...