Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

May 29, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1482794

May 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1481244

RightWisconsin writes:

…crony capitalism is currently wreaking havoc on the conservative Republican brand of free markets and limited government.

The most obvious example of crony capitalism came this weekend with the Wisconsin State Journal’s blockbuster story about another loan gone bad from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation (WEDC). The storyline ...

May 24, 2015, 11:03 am, 1479750

U.S. retail gasoline prices last week averaged over $2.80 a gallon, thirty cents higher than a month ago. The preliminary University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for May was 88.6, down 7 points from the month before. Are these two developments related?

The consumer ...

May 22, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1479126

One of the enduring puzzles of international finance is the fact that the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations is consistently rejected, as evidenced by the coefficient estimates in the Fama regression.

The typical approach is to estimate a regression of the ex post change (in logs) ...

May 19, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1477124

Relevant or Irrelevant?

The highly integrated nature of the global financial system was amply demonstrated, if we needed any reminder, by the turmoil in emerging market currency and bond markets in the wake of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s statements regarding the normalization of U.S. monetary policy, i.e., the “taper tantrum”. Following ...

May 17, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1475976

I was recently honored to receive the UCSD Chancellor’s Associates Award for Excellence in Research and Social Sciences. Here’s a video they made for the event.

May 16, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1475775

Auch keine Garnelen, in Wisconsin.* (Seriously! See page 3, line 9, and lines 14-15, in the bill) From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

Under [the] bill, food stamp recipients could not use the program to buy crab, lobster, shrimp or other shellfish. Additionally, they would have to use two-thirds of ...

May 15, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1475515

With implications for assessing Wisconsin post-January 2011.

There has been some debate regarding the pace of economic growth in Wisconsin over the past four years. In order to compare the outcome with what might be expected, I construct a counterfactual, based upon the historical correlation of Wisconsin economic activity with ...

May 15, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1475237

As the Congress debates currency manipulation [1], it occurs to me useful to reprise my earlier primer on currency misalignment (first published in March 2010), where misalignment is one component of some definitions of currency manipulation.

Currency misalignment can be determined on the basis of the following criteria ...

May 13, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1473939

How well has Wisconsin economically performed, as compared to its neighbor Minnesota, and to the US overall: here are six pictures of economic activity, employment, unemployment, real personal income, gross state product, and median household income, with which to make an assessment.