January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Isao Kamata, Assistant Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. This post is based upon this working paper; the paper also circulates as a Research ...
I was in New York on Friday attending the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. One of the sessions was on how central banks could better communicate their plans for using unconventional monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans presented some very interesting ideas.
Evans argued ...
OK, nothing about birthers, but some comments on truths held deeply, but unjustifiably, by certain types of people.
1) That some recovery, although disappointing, ...
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. He is currently a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle ...
Updated 3/4 5PM
Here are some immediate consequences of Russia’s intervention in the Ukraine. From Reuters:
Russian stocks and bonds plummeted on Monday and the central bank hiked interest rates, burning its way through as much as $12 billion of its reserves to prop up the rouble as ...
Accompanying the release of the President’s budget (link corrected 3/5 1:20) was the Administration’s forecasts, including forecasts of GDP. These forecasts are produced by the Troika (Treasury, CEA, OMB). Some observers have asked “Is the White House’s 3.1% growth forecast still too rosy?”. Time for some comparisons.
Released today, available here.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have prompted some discussion of revisiting U.S. policy on exports of oil and natural gas.
Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) last week called for faster Energy Department approval of facilities to export liquefied natural gas (LNG). Senator Lisa Murkowski ...
Most accounts of inflation focus on national statistics. While the national series is still low, in some select locations, it’s even lower.
Figure 1 depicts 12 month inflation for the four BLS regions, and for the US as a whole.
If a collapse in aggregate demand is not at fault, then was an aggregate supply shift? A quick-and-dirty evaluation using some back-of-the-envelope calculations
In 2008Q4, GDP fell at an annualized rate of 8.9%; it fell another 5.6% going into 2009Q1. One interpretation is that aggregate demand collapsed. An alternative interpretation ...