Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.


Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


RSS Feed

EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


August 19, 2018, 10:35 pm, 1891517

With the election, and anticipation of a large fiscal impulse (tax cut, infrastructure spending), the dollar rose and the term spread increased. As expectations of the latter disippated, both the dollar and spread shrank. But recently, the comovement has broken down.


August 15, 2018, 4:05 pm, 1890366

Measuring the level of global economic activity is of key interest. But the measures we have on variables like industrial production don’t cover all countries and are only available with a significant lag. Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian suggested in an influential paper published in 2009 that we ...


August 14, 2018, 11:04 pm, 1889982

The CBO’s Budget and Economic Outlook is a must read. In addition to the widening budget deficit (no supply side miracle here), and the downward revision in projected 2018 growth, there is this commentary in the section blandly titled “Some Uncertainties in the Economic Outlook” (page 14 onward):

A sizable ...


August 14, 2018, 12:05 pm, 1889690

Statement yesterday, as reported by Washington Examiner:

“[That country] really needs to make up its mind” … “Do they want to be in the community of nations, do they want to be part of the WTO and just behave like everybody else, or don’t they?”

“And if they don’t, then we, ...


August 13, 2018, 2:35 pm, 1889298

In this post, I used IMF estimated data for predicting the counterfactual mortality levels, necessary to calculate excess deaths. It is important to note that by not taking into account the recent population decline, one is probably biasing down estimates of excess deaths.

For instance, here are three estimates:


August 13, 2018, 3:04 am, 1888994

Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Steven J. Davis, William H. Abbot Distinguished Service Professor of International Business and Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Donald Trump has upended U.S. trade ...


August 12, 2018, 8:35 pm, 1888921

Not quite the Flying Dutchman, Peak Pegasus and its load of US soybeans finally docks a Dalian in China.


Source: Reuters.

To me, this suggests the owner of ...


August 11, 2018, 3:04 pm, 1888568

(Translation: “Waiting for Godot”) Many observers have noted that the Chinese must eventually come to the US for some of their soybean needs, as the supply of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans are depleted and American soybeans are harvested. Current futures for November 2018 do not indicate a recovery to pre-Trump ...


August 10, 2018, 10:35 pm, 1888357

One of the aspects of previous formal studies of excess deaths in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria is that the population decline in the years preceding the hurricane strike, while acknowledged, is not accounted for (Santos-Lozada and Howard, 2017, Rivera and Rolke, 2018, Kishore ...


August 10, 2018, 1:25 pm, 1888129

Following up on Chinn-LeCloux (2018), here are five aggregates for the Kansas economy.


Figure 1: Wisconsin Real GDP (blue), real personal income (red), coincident index (green), nonfarm ...