May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
I see a possible way out for the trap that Brits now find themselves in, a way ...
I find it remarkable that, going by the numbers, economic policy uncertainty is now higher than after the bankruptcy of Lehman — and even higher than in the days after 9/11.
Here are my two pence on some of the consequences of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
A key goal of the EU was to allow freer movements of goods, services, and people across countries. The potential economic benefits of such freedom are well known. Access ...
Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate.
Hillary Clinton ...
As assessed probability of Brexit rises, pound falls.
USD per Pound, last 5 days, as of 4AM London time. Source: Bloomberg.
Pound is down 9.29% against USD since London close (5PM ...
Here are some assessments of the economic impact on the UK economy, over the short (business cycle horizon) to long run.
Table 2 from Angus Armstrong and Jonathan ...
Some critics (e.g., ) have argued that employment and coincident indicators are too narrow of measures of economic activity to make relevant comparisons. Here I plot the real GDP — the broadest measure of economic activity — for Kansas and her neighbors.
Since 1982, the Fed has targeted the federal funds rate as the primary instrument of monetary policy. But from late 2008 onward, the ...
Heretofore, I’ve approached in a piecemeal manner the assessment of the impact of massive tax cuts for the wealthy, building a really, really great wall, a final solution for the presence of undocumented immigrants, and the imposition a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. Moody’s Mark Zandi et al. have ...
Defenders of the Kansas and Wisconsin misadventures in supply side economics keep on pointing to North Carolina as the counter-example that proves tax cuts do prompt faster growth (e.g.,  ). A quick look at the data provides the following observations: (1) North Carolina GDP growth has merely ...