Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

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The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

May 26, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1751132

Quarterly GDP figures for Kansas indicate essentially zero q/q growth in 2016Q4, and 0.3% y/y. This is true despite the end of the drought. BEA Plains region growth outpaces Kansas, as well.

May 24, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1750492

From today’s CBO score of the AHCA, bottom line, 14 million more uninsured next year, and 23 million more by 2026.

CBO and JCT broadly define private health insurance coverage as consisting of a comprehensive major medical policy that, at a minimum, covers high-cost medical events and various ...

May 24, 2017, 12:04 am, 1750188

That’s how Larry Summers described the growth forecasts underpinning the Trump budget released today. And I can’t really disagree, regarding the medium to longer term forecasts.

From the article:

Apparently, the budget forecasts that U.S. economic growth will rise to 3.0 percent because of the administration’s policies — largely ...

May 22, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1749660

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Simon van Norden, Professor of Finance at HEC Montréal.

‘Big Data’ continues to be the subject of much hype these days, so let me share a small cautionary tale for readers who might be interested in ...

May 18, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1748962

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Maurizio Michael Habib, Elitza Mileva and Livio Stracca. The views expressed belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the institutions to which the authors are affiliated.

Does depreciation spur growth? The answer really ...

May 17, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1748625

Mix together the dashing of great (plutocratically oriented tax cut) expectations, the complete absence of any plan for infrastructure spending, and mix in some risk, and one gets this:

May 16, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1748282

From Reuters today:

“It’s becoming increasingly difficult to attract good people to work in this administration,” said one senior official. “In other cases, veteran people with expertise are leaving or seeking posts overseas and away from this White House.”

As of today, of the 557 key positions that are presidential ...

May 14, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1747530

May 12, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1747189

As noted in Wednesday’s post, FinCEN — the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network — was asked by the Senate Intelligence Committee about information regarding connections between Russia and Trump and his associates. News reports indicate that FinCEN will provide the requested information.

From Reuters:

A unit of the U.S. ...

May 11, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1746623

That’s the title of my article at EconoFact today.

The Issue:

The Trump Administration has proposed a number of trade related measures purportedly on the basis of national security. The first involves invoking a seldom-used provision of the trade law to investigate whether imposing import restrictions for steel and aluminum is ...