Economics Roundtable
The Problem - I
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face.
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The Problem - II
Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of the housing tailspin.
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Special Topic 8/4/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the payroll employment figures from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +42,000
BLS: -131,000/+71,000
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Special Topics 6/28/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +13,000
BLS: -125,000/+83,000
CBO: Take your pick.
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Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10
James Hamilton summarizes the situation.
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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)
"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”
Just some numbers to bring reality into the general discussion:
...According to the CBO
In evaluating the advisability of extending either completely or partially the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 (aka EGTRRA and JGTRRA), and implementing additional fixes to the AMT, one should consider the impact on the budget.
...According to the CBO.
In evaluating the advisability of extending either completely or partially the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 (aka EGTRRA and JGTRRA), and implementing additional fixes to the AMT, one should consider the impact on the budget balance.
I thought I'd add a few observations on the latest employment report (other reports here: [NYT], [WSJ RTE/Izzo] [CR], [Economist's View]). First, by an alternate measure, employment is improving more rapidly than the standard nonfarm employment (NFP) measure. Second, the alternate measure increased faster than nonfarm ...
August auto sales worst in 27 years, declared some headlines. While the statement may be true, I don't think it's the best way to summarize what we're seeing.
If one wants to be taken seriously in the world of policy analysis, one should at least use an internally consistent framework. This consideration, apparently, has not troubled Mr. Reidl.
Even though the overnight interest rate has been stuck near zero for 20 months, are there options available to the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury to bring longer-term yields down further? I have been looking into this question with Cynthia Wu, an extremely talented UCSD graduate student. ...
With the consumer in the doldrums, residential investment unlikely to rebound in the near future, and government stimulus constrained by political gridlock, it's hard to see where the sources of aggregate demand will be. I'm going to extend Jim's search for silver linings in the latest GDP release.
I have been working on a project with UCSD graduate student Cynthia Wu to try to assess the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue to influence long-term interest rates even when the short-term interest rate is essentially at zero. I'll be relating the conclusions from that research ...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which last month had estimated that U.S. real GDP had grown at a 2.4% annual rate during the second quarter, today revised that estimate down to a 1.6% annual rate. But the revision isn't quite as discouraging as it might sound.