May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Kauffman Foundation has just released its report on startup activity. Wisconsin comes in last place in startup density.
Figure 1: Source: Kauffman Foundation.
From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
For the second year ...
There is widespread belief that Abenomics has led to no increase in output in Japan. It therefore seems useful to examine the data.
Figure 1 shows real GDP normalized to 2012Q4 — just before the initiation of Abenomics — over time.
So spake Donald J. Trump, September 13, 2012. Here’s what actually happened.
Figure 1: Log real value of US dollar against broad basket of currencies, 2012M09=0 (blue, left scale), ...
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate.
Among the many ways ...
Bryan Kelly at the University of Chicago, Hanno Lustig at Stanford and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh at NYU had an interesting paper in the June issue of American Economic Review that used option prices to measure the magnitude of the implicit U.S. government guarantee of the financial sector during 2007-2009.
Bruce Hall says changing dynamics in Kansas have meant that a simple average difference (what I’ve called a individual state fixed effect) in Kansas-US unemployment rates is misleading — or more succinctly put, “the average obfuscates the trend”. So, I allowed a time trend and a square in time ...
Bruce Bartlett alerts me to the continuing economic downturn in the state.
First, two measures of employment (the household series in red is measured with much greater error, due to the small sample).
Reader Bruce Hall asserts the two states aren’t doing too badly in terms of unemployment rates.
Different measures tell different stories. Kansas is much closer to “full employment” than most states; Wisconsin isn’t doing badly either. It’s nice to see the rest of the story.
At this point, it’s useful ...
DWD released data today. Wisconsin private employment in July is estimated to equal what we earlier thought it was in June…
Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment ...
New data came out on industrial production and monthly GDP over the last couple days. That allows us to update the picture of key indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on continues to paint an ambiguous picture.