Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

October 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1360078

And California and Minnesota surge ahead of the US. I know this sounds like a broken record, but the numbers are the numbers. And reader Patrick R. Sullivan suggests I move to Kansas (based on a Tax Foundation analysis). Here’s at least one reason why I don’t plan to. ...

October 27, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1358609

Or, the self-rehabilitation effort continues. In a WSJ op-ed entitled “Government Forecasters Might as Well Use a Ouija Board”, he writes:

My analysis of 1999-2013 reveals that the CBO’s real GDP growth forecasts for the next year were off, on average, by 1.7 percentage points, either too high or low. ...

October 26, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357924

I’m a little late in mentioning a wonderful conference in San Francisco last month. Thanks so much to Oscar Jorda and Francisco Ruge-Murcia for organizing the event and to all those who participated to help make this a truly exceptional gathering. Here’s a link to ...

October 24, 2014, 11:03 am, 1357126

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.

The latest World Economic Outlook, released this month by the International Monetary Fund, warns ...

October 23, 2014, 11:03 am, 1356293

Low ranked by ALEC-Laffer, California and Minnesota continue to power along, as shown in data released today by the Philadelphia Fed.

Figure 1: Log coincident indices for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (bold red), Kansas (green), California (teal), United States (black), all ...

October 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1355876

Integration, cointegration and the evaluation of time series data for public policy analysis. As my first economics teacher said, “ya gotta be careful”.

Bruce Thompson at Urban Milwaukee’s Data Wonk writes:

…the data shows Gov. Walker has had little impact, positive or negative, on how the state grows jobs.

Dr. Thompson ...

October 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1354761

test test

October 21, 2014, 1:03 am, 1354451

Those are the topics covered in the West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, held October 17, 2014, and co-organized by Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) and Michael Hutchison (UC Santa Cruz). The agenda is here (co-sponsored by USC, UCSC, Federal Reserve ...

October 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1354282

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development released without fanfare (well, there is no press release I see on the DWD media website as of 3pm CDT today) the last figures to be available before the election. They indicate September private nonfarm employment 108.6 thousands below the trend consistent with ...

October 19, 2014, 11:03 am, 1353663

Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold your breath.