Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

April 18, 2014, 1:03 am, 1257422

That’s a new volume out from Oxford University Press, co-edited by Inderjit Kaur and Nirvikar Singh.

The contributors are all prominent scholars in the field of Pacific Rim economics. Several are familiar Econbrowser guest contributors, or highlighted in posts ...

April 15, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1255818

April 13, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1254951

As Russia fosters heightened instability in the eastern portions of Ukraine [0], we should be considering what methods will impose maximum pain on Russian policymakers. Already, the Russian economy has taken a hit, even while in an already fragile state.[1] [2]

From Robert Kahn at CFR:

Direct ...

April 13, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1254919

The increase in vertical specialization in Asia has implications for the strength of linkages between the region’s economies, and the tendency to manage intra-regional exchange rates.

From the paper:

First, the conventional means of measuring international competitiveness are going to be less and less adequate, as production becomes more fragmented. ...

April 11, 2014, 1:03 am, 1254041

Recent indications are that, in the face of declining inflation, the ECB’s Draghi is considering embarking upon quantitative easing. Despite the technical difficulties accompanying such a measure [0] I believe additional stimulative measures are nonetheless called for.

This figure from the recently released World Economic Outlook (p.55) demonstrates ...

April 9, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1253366

No catch-up in sight for Wisconsin with Minnesota (or the Nation, for that matter)

In a previous post, I noted that the most recent revisions had widened the gap between Wisconsin and other economies. Recently released forecasts from the Philadelphia Fed indicate the gaps will persist.

April 8, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1252500

From the IMF:

…Although downside risks have diminished overall, lower-than-expected inflation poses risks for advanced economies, there is increased financial volatility in emerging market economies, and increases in the cost of capital will likely dampen investment and weigh on growth. Advanced economy policymakers need to avoid a premature ...

April 8, 2014, 1:03 am, 1252106

The Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce group has a recent piece, written by Scott Manley (VP), highlighting negative impacts of a minimum wage increase. I have attempted to track down the numbers cited. It has been an illuminating experience.

From the article:

A recent analysis by the Employment Policies Institute ...

April 7, 2014, 11:03 am, 1251799

Congratulations to James Gualtieri, winner of the world famous Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge.

Although the final game won’t be played until tonight, we already know the winner of the challenge, since none of the prognosticators in our competition picked either of the teams playing in the championship game. ...

April 6, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1251568

Last week ECB President Mario Draghi revealed that the European Central Bank has been considering large-scale asset purchases as a tool to prevent European inflation from falling too far below the ECB’s target rate of 2%. What is the evidence for the effectiveness of these policies, and are ...