Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

June 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1499079

Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France and University Paris Ouest Nanterre La Dfense) and Pierre Gurin (Bank of Canada). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Banque de ...

June 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1498930

University of Chicago Professor Anil Kashyap has a helpful summary of the Greek financial crisis.

June 28, 2015, 11:03 am, 1498208

There’ve been some stunning pictures recently sent back from distant parts of our solar system which I wanted to share.

When I was a boy, people could only imagine what a comet actually looks like. Now we know.

June 27, 2015, 3:03 am, 1497854

Over the last three months, there has been a substantial downshift in the level of economic activity and six-month forecasted growth, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

Figure 1: Log coincident index for Kansas, from February release (blue), March (red), April (green), ...

June 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1497565

Expect further contraction

This morning, the Philadelphia Fed released leading indices, forecasting growth over the next six months.

Figure 1: Log coincident index for Kansas, from February release (blue), March (red), April (green), and May (black), and associated implied forecasted levels. ...

June 25, 2015, 1:03 am, 1496640

Philadelphia Fed coincident indices for Kansas have been revised downward, along with forecasts.

Figure 1: Log coincident index for Kansas, from February release (blue), March (red), April (green) and May (black), along with corresponding forecasts implied by leading indicators. All ...

June 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1496471

This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.

The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new ...

June 23, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1495722

In Down, Down, Down, I noted Wisconsin’s three month downward trend in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, and as I cautioned, even this level of employment would likely be further downward revised when the QCEW data were incorporated in the next benchmark. The household survey based ...

June 21, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1494610

Here are my thoughts on options for handling Greece’s debt.

Let me begin with the following question: if someone makes a new loan to the Greek government, are they ever going to get paid back? Let’s start by being clear about what we mean by “paid back.” There’s nothing ...

June 19, 2015, 11:03 am, 1493809

Wisconsin released QCEW data yesterday. We can use this data to update the estimate of nonfarm payroll employment. Doing so worsens the employment performance through 2014.

I take QCEW private employment data from 2001M01-2014M12, seasonally adjust using ARIMA X-12 (multiplicative seasonal factors), to obtain the adjusted series. Both are presented ...