Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

May 5, 2016, 11:03 am, 1633369

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.

Chinese ...

May 3, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1632532

Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France, Head of the International Macro Division) and Clément Marsilli (Banque de France, Economist in the International Macro Division). The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent ...

May 2, 2016, 1:03 am, 1631947

The 2016Q1 advance release, discussed at length by Jim, provides additional evidence in favor extreme caution in tightening monetary policy — maybe even a reconsideration of the June rate hike that seems, according to conventional wisdom, a done deal.

First, the output gap increased slightly in 2016Q1. Even taking ...

April 30, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1631632

A reader comments:

Your final jab in this post regresses the state output gap on the fiscal gap. You then conclude that there is a positive relation between the two and that this somehow implies that a reduction in gov’t spending is a drag on the economy. I’ll just point ...

April 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1630855

The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 0.5% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s disappointing, even by standards of the weak growth that has become the norm since getting out of the Great Recession.

April 27, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1630631

In Governor Brownback’s re-election campaign, he committed to 25,000 new jobs per year in his next term. This is reminiscent of Governor Walker’s August 2013 promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs over the four years of his first term, by January 2015. How are things going?

April 25, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1629866

On reading my recent post on Kansas economic performance in the reign of Brownback, which included this graph:

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment in Kansas (red), in US (blue), in logs normalized ...

April 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1629462

At the NBER Annual Conference on Macroeconomics in Cambridge last week I participated with Steven Kamin of the Federal Reserve Board and Steven Strongin of Goldman Sachs in a discussion on commodity prices. You can watch a video of our discussion at the NBER web site.

April 23, 2016, 1:03 am, 1629267

“A Crisis that Should Not Have Happened”

Spring is the time of events at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. On Monday, among the other conferences and talks, the Jean Monnet European Union Centre of Excellence, the Center for European Studies, and the Department for Political Science hosted a fascinating (and ...

April 19, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1628066

The experiment continues…

From CBS News today:

Brownback took office on a pledge to make Kansas friendlier to business and successfully sought to cut the top personal income tax rate by 29 percent and exempt more than 330,000 farmers and business owners from income taxes. The moves were popular in ...