Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

May 31, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1641353

With Philadelphia Fed leading indices out, I still don’t know if it constitutes a “disaster”, but it’s not particularly good.

While we have state GDP only up to 2015Q3 (2015Q4 figures to come out in mid-June), we do have personal income statistics through 2015Q4. The national and Kansas figures, ...

May 31, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1641206

“China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown”

That’s the title of a just released IMF Working Paper by Gee Hee Hong, Jaewoo Lee, Wei Liao, Dulani Seneviratne:

Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both ...

May 29, 2016, 11:03 am, 1640733

Here I review key trends in the oil market over the last decade.

May 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1640623

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made two specific proposals purportedly aimed at safeguarding the Homeland. Presumably, these will be incorporated into the Republican party platform. How would those proposals be implemented and how much would implementation cost?

Forcible Removal

In order to assess costs, it is necessary to first lay ...

May 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1640111

Today, we are pleased to present a guest column written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column appearing at Project Syndicate.

As the ...

May 25, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1639895

I don’t know if it counts as a “disaster”, but Kansas continues to lag its neighbors in economic activity, and to under-perform what is to be expected from historical correlations.

May 22, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1638750

The second quarter of 2016 is now more than half over, but we won’t receive the first reading on 2016:Q2 GDP from the BEA until the end of July. A forecast of something that is happening right now is sometimes described as a “nowcast”. The Federal Reserve Banks of ...

May 21, 2016, 1:03 am, 1638562

Or, “ouch!”

That figure is from this article. Total NFP employment is below levels of September 2014. I’m sure some people (see here for one example) will take a Panglossian view, but I can’t see how it’s a particularly good outcome.

More statistical analysis here.

May 19, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1638262

Wisconsin’s Department of Workforce Development released employment figures today. Nonfarm payroll employment down 12,000, private NFP down 11,000, month-on-month.

Figure 1 depicts US and Wisconsin (log) NFP employment normalized to 2011M01; Figure 2 shows the counterfactual of what Wisconsin employment should be, based on historical correlations holding over ...

May 17, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1637371

In my last post, I noted a conference on uncertainty in macroeconomics. Here are two papers of particular interest to me.

The first, by Kimberly A. Berg and Nelson Mark, was entitled “Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns”:

We identify country macroeconomic fundamentals, whose first and higher-ordered moments ...