Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

September 3, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1538764

Or, “President Obama, build up this wall!”

From Fox News:

Walker said in an interview that aired Sunday that building a wall along the country’s northern border with Canada is a legitimate issue that merits further review.

Republican candidates for president have often taken a get-tough approach on deterring illegal immigration, ...

September 1, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1537675

Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Marcos Chamon, Senior Economist in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund, and Mrcio Garcia, Associate Professor of Economics at PUC-Rio. The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors and do not ...

August 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1536390

U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated.

Oil companies have cut back spending significantly in response to the fall in the price of oil. The number of rigs that are active in the main U.S. ...

August 27, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1535442

August 26, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1534772

Do stock price indices follow a random walk? No, but log stock price indices do…kind of

Here’s a graph of the Standard and Poors 500 price index, level (blue) and the log (red).

Figure 1: S&P 500 stock price index (blue, left ...

August 26, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1534771

The Shanghai stock market has undergone some wild gyrations over the last year… and back in 2008. Following up on To Log or Not to Log, Part IV:

Here’s the picture, as usually depicted.

Figure 1: Shanghai composite stock market index, ...

August 24, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1533489

Reasoned analysis and careful decisionmaking is required.

The Chinese Context

The global meltdown in equity markets certainly concentrated minds. But, as I observed before, I think it’s important to keep in mind the overall context in China, laid out by Jim in his post. Here are a few additional graphs, ...

August 24, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1533408

From USAToday:

“Americans are struggling to cope with the fall in today’s markets driven in part by China’s slowing economy and the fact that they actively manipulate their economy,” the Wisconsin governor said in a statement. “Rather than honoring Chinese President Xi Jinping with an official state visit next month, ...

August 23, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1532890

U.S. stock prices as measured by the S&P500 fell almost 7% last week. What’s going on?

Value of S&P500 index over last 3 months. ...

August 22, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1532741

Reader CoRev asserts wildfire intensity has not been severe of late. I’ll just some graph some data to bring reality to the interested.

Figure 1: Acres burned (blue) and log-linear trend (red). Source: NIFC and author’s calculations.

Notice the upward ...