Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

February 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1430645

What are these series?

They are log GDP for the first terms of the most recent seven presidencies, SAAR, normalized to the quarter of inauguration.

Figure 2: Nominal GDP, billions of $, ...

February 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1429873

Political Calculations criticizes me for comparing Wisconsin economic performance against Minnesota, but not other neighbors.

Normally, we’re entertained by Chinn’s analysis, since it frequently involves comparisons of the job growth between Wisconsin and its western neighbor Minnesota since Walker was sworn into office in January 2011, which we find funny ...

February 25, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1429007

I am fascinated by maps, including maps of the United States which display the geographic variation of institutional features. But qualitative features, such as institutions or laws, cannot be directly subjected quantitative analysis. Fortunately, as I’ve been discussing in my intro econometrics class, one can convert qualitative data into ...

February 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1428197

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Roberto Duncan, assistant professor of economics at Ohio University.

In spite of the current account reversals observed in advanced countries, global imbalances are still a matter of concern (IMF, 2014). Probably, the US current account is ...

February 24, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1428032

The CBO has been providing nonpartisan budgetary and economic analyses for four decades. Whether that continues depends upon the willingness of leaders in Congress believe in the worth of serious analysis (see here for doubts). For now, we look back and (hopefully) forward, at events today. Yesterday, a ...

February 22, 2015, 11:03 am, 1426869

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) has gathered significant bipartisan support for the Federal Reserve Transparency Act of 2015, his proposal for more audits of the Fed. I’ve been trying to understand why any sensible person would think this is a good idea.

Jim Guest says the bill ...

February 21, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1426671

Paul Krugman notes Governor Walker’s advisers on economics at a recent meeting are Larry Kudlow, Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer. These folks make appearances in the Econbrowser archives.

Larry Kudlow

From The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable (Feb. 2011). Jeff Frieden asks, in the NY Times, why warnings ...

February 20, 2015, 1:03 am, 1425770

As the state’s fiscal position becomes more dire, in large part due to the tax cuts implemented last year, Governor Walker proposes to delay some debt payments.

From Jon Peacock at Wisconsin Budget Blog:

We finally learned this week one of the major tactics being used to fill the ...

February 19, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1425345

The entire report was released today, covering the “…progress of the recovery and explores the long-term factors that drive middle-class incomes,…the macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy during 2014, …the opportunities and challenges facing the U.S. labor market, …how American family lives have changed over the last half-century and ...

February 17, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1423926

Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor of Economics and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics, respectively, at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors.

While the Great Recession of December 2007 to June 2009 ended over five years ago, the recovery has ...