Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

January 27, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1411129

January 25, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1409606

In December I provided some simple calculations of the extent to which a slowdown in the growth of global oil demand may have contributed to the spectacular drop in oil prices since last summer, and I updated those estimates two weeks ago. Some of you have ...

January 24, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1409390

Reader rtd writes: “…it is virtually guaranteed that after a nation’s business cycle trough, that same nation’s employment growth will display an upward trend”, but when asked about the euro area, argues “The Eurozone is a conglomerate of nations with varying fiscal policies, ideologies, cultures, and the list ...

January 23, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1408897

Reader Move On admonishes me to … move on. So here is job creation in this Administration, in comparative perspective.

Figure 1: Log private nonfarm private employment normalized to 2009M01 (blue), and to 2001M01 (red). Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

Figure ...

January 22, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1408447

According to WI DWD statistics released today.

Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment (red), and linear trend implied by Governor Walker’s 250,000 net new private sector jobs pledge (gray). Dashed line at beginning of Walker administration. Governor Walker recommits ...

January 22, 2015, 1:03 am, 1407732

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jinzhao Chen (Paris School of Economics) and XingWang Qian (SUNY Buffalo State). This post is based on this paper.

The 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent US Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) policy followed by its “taper” ...

January 20, 2015, 11:03 am, 1407212

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Timothy Bian (University of International Business and Economics, China) and Pedro Gete (Georgetown University).

Housing prices in China have increased rapidly. The picture below compares their dynamics with those of the U.S. and other economies.

January 20, 2015, 1:03 am, 1406920

From the IMF:

Global growth will receive a boost from lower oil prices, which reflect to an important extent higher supply. But this boost is projected to be more than offset by negative factors, including investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and ...

January 18, 2015, 11:03 am, 1406406

The Swiss National Bank stunned markets on Thursday with an abrupt decision to abandon its commitment since 2011 to hold the Swiss franc at 1.20 francs/euro, as a result of which the franc appreciated almost 20% within the space of a few minutes.

I have seen some commentators suggest that ...

January 16, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1405933

Paul Ryan in October 2009 writes:

“One of my key concerns is on the inflation front….”

“…We are already seeing some potentially dangerous developments in financial markets. Over the past six months alone, the dollar has declined nearly 15 percent against major currencies (Figure 4) . Due to extremely low ...