Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


February 24, 2018, 8:35 pm, 1825105

In a previous post, and as flagged by reader rtd, I wrote too quickly and did not show the full set of changes to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services mission statement. Apologies for the omission. The wording of the new mission statement — on top of deleting ...


February 24, 2018, 4:35 pm, 1825080

Anonymous reader rtd took issue with my characterization of the modification of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services in this post, characterizing it as “…disingenuous at best and to me seems to be grossly negligent…”. He takes up my invitation to write his comprehensive response, for which ...


February 24, 2018, 1:24 am, 1824993

America under Mr. Trump is transmuted. US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) modifies its mission statement.

“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity ...


February 24, 2018, 1:24 am, 1824992

America under Mr. Trump is transmuted. US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) modifies its mission statement.

“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity ...


February 23, 2018, 1:05 pm, 1824734

Following up on the other candidate variables in this post.


Figure 1: Mass shooting deaths (black), wounded (gray), both 12 month trailing moving average. February observation for data ...


February 22, 2018, 2:05 pm, 1824072

Jason Furman points us out to his favorite Table 8-2 in the Economic Report of the President, 2018, released yesterday, with particular reference to the productivity assumption.


February 21, 2018, 3:24 pm, 1823546

In my previous post, I recounted “The New Fama Puzzle” as it applied to dollar exchange rates, with focus on the euro/dollar rate. A quick observation: the reversal also appears for non-US dollar based exchange rates (against euro, yen, pound).

The Fama regression is:

s+1 – s = α’ + ...


February 21, 2018, 3:24 pm, 1823545

In my previous post, I recounted “The New Fama Puzzle” as it applied to dollar exchange rates, with focus on the euro/dollar rate. A quick observation: the reversal also appears for non-US dollar based exchange rates (against euro, yen, pound).

The Fama regression is:

s+1 – s = α’ + ...


February 21, 2018, 12:05 am, 1823108

Fact-check please!

From CDN:

President Donald Trump’s Schedule for Wednesday, February 21, 2018

President Donald Trump will receive his daily briefing as prepared by the intelligence community then discuss the Economic Report of the President with the Council of Economic Advisers.

This could be my chance for some fiction reading, ...


February 20, 2018, 5:24 pm, 1823030

Not good. From GS Sunday.

And nary a peep from purported conservative deficit hawks and/or Tea Party folk.