Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

August 26, 2016, 3:03 am, 1667765

The Kauffman Foundation has just released its report on startup activity. Wisconsin comes in last place in startup density.

Figure 1: Source: Kauffman Foundation.

From the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

For the second year ...

August 25, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1667721

There is widespread belief that Abenomics has led to no increase in output in Japan. It therefore seems useful to examine the data.

Figure 1 shows real GDP normalized to 2012Q4 — just before the initiation of Abenomics — over time.

August 23, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1667041

So spake Donald J. Trump, September 13, 2012. Here’s what actually happened.

Figure 1: Log real value of US dollar against broad basket of currencies, 2012M09=0 (blue, left scale), ...

August 23, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1666935

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This is an extended version of a column that appeared at Project Syndicate.

Among the many ways ...

August 21, 2016, 11:03 am, 1666281

Bryan Kelly at the University of Chicago, Hanno Lustig at Stanford and Stijn van Nieuwerburgh at NYU had an interesting paper in the June issue of American Economic Review that used option prices to measure the magnitude of the implicit U.S. government guarantee of the financial sector during 2007-2009.

August 20, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1666193

Bruce Hall says changing dynamics in Kansas have meant that a simple average difference (what I’ve called a individual state fixed effect) in Kansas-US unemployment rates is misleading — or more succinctly put, “the average obfuscates the trend”. So, I allowed a time trend and a square in time ...

August 19, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1666087

Bruce Bartlett alerts me to the continuing economic downturn in the state.

First, two measures of employment (the household series in red is measured with much greater error, due to the small sample).

August 19, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1666055

Reader Bruce Hall asserts the two states aren’t doing too badly in terms of unemployment rates.

Different measures tell different stories. Kansas is much closer to “full employment” than most states; Wisconsin isn’t doing badly either. It’s nice to see the rest of the story.

At this point, it’s useful ...

August 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1665784

DWD released data today. Wisconsin private employment in July is estimated to equal what we earlier thought it was in June…

Figure 1: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment ...

August 17, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1665336

New data came out on industrial production and monthly GDP over the last couple days. That allows us to update the picture of key indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on continues to paint an ambiguous picture.