Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


March 26, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1446036

Will a minimum wage increase induce an apocalyptic conflagration of small businesses and low wage employment? Here’s one prediction:

This is not the time to force businesses to raise prices by laying-off employees in order to stay in business.
What good is raising the minimum wage if prices go up? What ...


March 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1444633

Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Stanfield Professor of International Peace at Harvard University, and author of the newly published Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy (Princeton University Press, 2015). This post is based upon a portion of that book.


March 22, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1443432

As widely expected, at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve dropped its statement that “the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy”, the magic formula that many observers had thought would open the way for a hike in interest rates ...


March 20, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1442779

Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Stanfield Professor of International Peace at Harvard University, and author of the newly published Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy (Princeton University Press, 2015). This post is based upon a portion of that book.


March 19, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1442340

The New York Times has an article in The Upshot today, which shows the yield curve over time in a nifty map. They also show the topography for yields in Germany and Japan.

One conclusion they come to for the ...


March 19, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1442263

That’s the title of an article by John Schmid and Kevin Crowe in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today, based upon just-released state level data on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW):

Wisconsin gained 27,491 private-sector jobs in the 12 months from September 2013 through September 2014, a 1.16% ...


March 18, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1441531

The CBO took at face value the revenue and spending levels in the House Budget, FY2016, and assessed the impact on GNP per capita (remember, this is not a score, as there are few details on specific provisions to hit the targets). The impact is shown in Figure ...


March 17, 2015, 3:03 am, 1440393

Currency appreciation will be a drag; this implies a policy of slower monetary tightening is in order

The Dollar’s Rise In Context
The dollar has risen by over 20% (log terms) against major currencies since July, as of 3/13. Against the euro, the dollar has appreciated by over 25%.


March 15, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1439599

The EIA released a new drilling productivity report last week, allowing us to update our graph of the drilling rig count in the four major tight oil regions. Active rigs in those areas are now 32% below their peak last October, the lowest level in 3 years.


March 14, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1439394

This is an interesting time series I picked up, as I was thinking about the yuan and prospects for Chinese trade flows.


Figure 1: International reserves ex-gold, in billions of USD (blue, left scale), and in log terms (red, right ...