Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

September 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1551197

Last Saturday marked ten years I’ve had the honor of contributing to Econbrowser, at the generous invitation of Jim Hamilton (here are his thoughts on ten years of Econbrowser). What follows are some thoughts on what I’ve learned during that time.

The current account imbalance was the topic of ...

September 29, 2015, 11:03 am, 1550612

Acres burned already exceeds the comparable figure for 2006, the previous record year.

Figure 1: Acres burned to August 22 (blue bar), from August 22 to September 25 (red bar) and to year-end (green bar). Source: NIFC1, NFIC2, ...

September 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1549825

How important would an economic downturn in China be for the United States?

Paul Krugman reviews some of the reasons why the United States perhaps shouldn’t worry too much:

China’s economy, while big, is still a small fraction of the global economy– about 15 percent at market exchange ...

September 24, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1548910

… replacing it with a résumé-based system for merit hiring.

I think I know what will be required on the resumes to be hired under the current administration.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article continues:

Republicans have already made changes in recent months, eliminating the Office of State Employment Relations as part of ...

September 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1548787

September 24, 2015, 1:03 am, 1548351

As noted in The Hill, from a letter written by key House and Senate leaders to President Obama:

September 23, 2015, 1:03 am, 1547835

From Hatzius et al., in Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research yesterday:

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago, and we believe the probability is nearly 50%. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, ...

September 22, 2015, 1:03 am, 1547261

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.

Exactly 30 years ago, on September 22, 1985, ministers of the Group of Five countries met ...

September 20, 2015, 11:03 am, 1546644

There was lots of action in financial markets last week, with much of the attention focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve. The interest rate on a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond edged up 10 basis points early in the week in anticipation that the Fed might finally raise its target ...

September 18, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1546286

And the fiscal experiment continues.

Figure 1: Kansas nonfarm payroll employment (blue), civilian employment (red), in 000’s, seasonally adjusted, Log scale. Dashed line denotes last period establishment series is QCEW benchmarked. Source: BLS.