Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

February 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1721322

One of the responses to the financial turmoil of 2008 was new legislation and regulation intended to prevent such a disaster from recurring. These measures include the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and the third international accord from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of 2010-11. But today ...

February 17, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1721061

What are the fiscal and economic implications?

From Associated Press:

The Trump administration considered a proposal to mobilize as many as 100,000 National Guard troops to round up unauthorized immigrants, including millions living nowhere near the Mexico border, according to a draft memo obtained by The Associated Press.

Staffers in the ...

February 17, 2017, 2:04 am, 1720806

Judy Shelton argues that “Free trade needs sound money”:

…[T]he time has come to develop a comprehensive approach to international monetary reform compatible with genuine free trade under free-market conditions. If markets are to function properly, money needs to convey accurate price signals; that won’t happen as long as governments ...

February 16, 2017, 2:04 am, 1720384

Judy Shelton on currency manipulation.

In response to my post on a possible new approach to tackling currency manipulation, reader “Judy” comments by sending me a link:

This is a WSJ op-ed, which is behind a paywall. Here is an ungated version:

Certainly the rules regarding international exchange-rate arrangements ...

February 14, 2017, 12:04 am, 1719533

From Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering a new tactic to discourage China from undervaluing its currency that falls short of a direct confrontation…

Under the plan, the commerce secretary would designate the practice of currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy when employed by any country, instead of ...

February 13, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1719516

That’s the title of a new post written by me, on Econofact. Short answer to the question posed: not likely just the Mexicans…

The Issue:

Building a wall on the Mexican border –and having Mexico pay for it– has been a centerpiece of President Trump’s policies to control immigration. The ...

February 11, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1718980

From the article:

Officials said the raids targeted known criminals, but they also netted some immigrants without criminal records, an apparent departure from similar enforcement waves during the Obama administration. Last month, Trump substantially broadened the scope of who the Department of Homeland Security can target to include those with ...

February 10, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1718810

That’s the title of a new European Central Bank working paper (coauthored with Yin-Wong Cheung (City U HK), Antonio Garcia Pascual (Barclay’s), and Yi Zhang (U. Wisc.)) just released.

February 10, 2017, 2:04 am, 1718579

From Head and Mayer, “Brands in motion: How frictions shape multinational production”, an examination of how the auto industry fares if Nafta is terminated:

In the end-of-NAFTA scenario, depicted in orange in Figure 7, all three members reduce [auto] production.

The gain in US production for its home market is ...

February 9, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1718510

From The Hill:

An internal report by the Department of Homeland Security found that President Trump’s proposed wall along the U.S. southern border would take 3.5 years to complete and would cost as much as $21.6 billion, Reuters reported Thursday.

Recall that Donald J. Trump made the following promise