Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”


April 22, 2017, 12:04 am, 1740054

Since 2011 — when Scott Walker and Sam Brownback came into power — California has powered far ahead of Wisconsin and Kansas. The newly released Rich States, Poor States, 2017 allows us to look at how four states, both low and high ranked by Arthur Laffer et al., fared, ...


April 21, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1739969

Why Trump’s Trade Policy Could Backfire

That’s a new Foreign Affairs essay out today by Doug Irwin, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College:

Although Trump’s professed goal is to “get a better deal” on trade, his brand of economic nationalism is just one step away from old-fashioned protectionism. The president ...


April 20, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1739621

From the Washington Examiner:

I really am amazed that a judge sitting on an island in the Pacific can issue an order that stops the president of the United States from what appears to be clearly his statutory and constitutional power”

That “island in the Pacific” is the state of ...


April 20, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1739620

Wisconsin and Minnesota released March employment figures today. Here, without comment (as none are needed) are year-on-year growth rates relative to the US average for Minnesota (blue) and Wisconsin (red).


April 15, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1738126

Many countries have three policy objectives: (1) being able to set their own monetary policy, in order to keep their own inflation and unemployment at desired levels; (2) having a stable exchange rate, in order to avoid disruptive shifts in exports or imports; and (3) allowing free capital flows, in ...


April 15, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1738117

The report, released yesterday, is here.

From page 15:

Treasury estimates that China intervened heavily in the foreign exchange market to prevent a more rapid RMB depreciation. Treasury estimates that from August 2015 through February 2017, China sold around $800 billion in foreign currency assets to prevent rapid RMB ...


April 13, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1737798

That was the title of a conference organized by Istituto Affari Internazionale (with support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and Banca d’Italia) that I attended a couple of weeks ago in Rome.

The conference brought together scholars from seven think tanks from the ...


April 11, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1736983

United Airlines had security drag a passenger off an airplane on Sunday. The CEO of United did not apologize until just a little while ago. Story and video here.

It’s apparent that the previous statement (discussion here) which did not include an apology was not having the desired effect.


April 6, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1735639

Short answer: maybe, but probably not.

Relying on the relationship between inflation adjusted exchange rates and per capita income (i.e., the Penn effect), China’s currency appears to be near where it’s to be expected, as of 2011.


April 5, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1735338

That’s the title of my latest EconoFact memo.

The Issue:

A central campaign theme of Candidate Trump was the promise to shrink America’s trade deficit. The promised policies to achieve this goal included quitting free trade agreements, unilaterally imposing tariffs, and putting in place other protectionist measures, such as ...