Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

August 31, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1327262

As the U.S. economy returns to healthier growth, many of us expected long-term interest rates to return to more normal historical levels. But the general trend has been down since the end of the Great Recession. The 10-year rate did jump back up in the spring of ...

August 30, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1327051

No succor from the QCEW series that the Walker Administration previously touted [1]

DWD released QCEW figures for first quarter 2014. Since the QCEW figures are not seasonally adjusted, I have estimated a series consistent with the BLS private nonfarm payroll employment series based on the QCEW data.

August 29, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1326750

And Kansas travels its own path

Bruce Bartlett brings my attention to this article noting Minnesota’s economic performance. This reminded me to check on the Philadelphia Fed’s forecast for the next six months, released earlier today. What’s interesting to me is the fact the cumulative growth gap ...

August 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1326676

From Bloomberg::

The U.K. will press European Union leaders to consider blocking Russian access to the SWIFT banking transaction system under an expansion of sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine, a British government official said.

“There’s no doubt that in the short term restricting Russian usage of SWIFT would ...

August 28, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1326150

From NYT:

NATO released photographs on Thursday that it said shows Russian artillery units operating in Ukraine, and asserted that more than 1,000 Russian soldiers had now joined the separatists fighting there against the Ukrainian armed forces.

Source: NYT.

The MICEX ...

August 28, 2014, 1:03 am, 1325664

Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Doug Campbell, assistant professor at the New Economic School (Moscow).

The 2000s began with the Federal Reserve narrowly missing the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates. Then the US needed a housing bubble to attain ...

August 26, 2014, 1:03 am, 1324405

Last time, we turned to the Phoenix Institute for some mind-numbing, soul-killing “research”. Today we look to the Pacific Research Institute for some dumbfounding “analysis”.

This particular piece of research was brought to my attention by Patrick R. Sullivan, who is fond of quoting talking points ...

August 24, 2014, 11:03 am, 1323710

Roger Farmer has taken a new look at an issue concerning the Federal Reserve’s program of large-scale asset purchases (referred to in the popular press as “quantitative easing”) that I’ve been discussing on Econbrowser and in my research with University of Chicago Professor Cynthia Wu for some ...

August 22, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1323352

The BEA has released a new quarterly Gross State Product (GSP) series for states — a tremendous innovation for those of us interested in tracking state economies.

One interesting comparison is Minnesota vs. Wisconsin. With GSP data, one can look at the ratio of per capita income expressed in ...

August 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1323152

The Chinn-Ito index revised and updated to 2012 is now available here.

Figure 1 depicts the evolution of this measure of financial openness for three groups of countries:

Figure 1: Evolution of KAOPEN for Different Income Groups. Higher values indicate greater ...