Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

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EconBrowser (James Hamilton)

"Analysis of current economic conditions and policy”

July 24, 2017, 6:04 am, 1765245

And lags further behind its neighbor Minnesota. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment is now below April 2017 peak. Finally, employment lags what would be predicted from the historical correlation of Wisconsin employment with national.

July 21, 2017, 10:04 am, 1764792

“For now, there is nothing the matter with Kansas.” – Stephen Moore, June 17, 2014

Readers will recall that, in response to CNN bringing Stephen Moore on board as an “economics analyst”, I noted that Stephen Moore is a liar. Now I continue with the Kansas edition.

For those ...

July 20, 2017, 6:04 am, 1764403

Well, I don’t think a few tariffs and quotas, plus “tweaking” Nafta, are going to do it. And blowing a hole in the Federal deficit ain’t likely to help.

First take a look at the trade deficit as defined in the national income accounting sense (i.e., “net exports”), expressed as ...

July 20, 2017, 2:04 am, 1764373

Here’s the health coverage implications of President Trump’s proposal to repeal Obamacare, as assessed by the CBO:

Figure 1: Effects of H.R. 1628, THE Obamacare Repeal ...

July 17, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1763699

At the invitation of the Italian Presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) in 2017, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) conducted a research project on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of the G7” together with a major policy think tank in each of the other ...

July 15, 2017, 2:04 am, 1763217

On imported steel, that is

From Politico today:

STEEL REPORT COULD COME NEXT WEEK: Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is expected as early as next week to give President Donald Trump a menu of options for restricting steel imports, senators said after a closed-door meeting with the Cabinet official Thursday afternoon.

The ...

July 13, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1762871

The CBO has just released an assessment of the President’s budget proposal. Balancing the budget looks unrealistic, even given massively sweeping (and unrealistic) spending cuts.

Here are the projected budget balances, under CBO baseline (blue), as claimed in the Budget submitted by the White House (red), and as ...

July 11, 2017, 4:04 am, 1762030

In a forthcoming paper (“The New Fama Puzzle”), coauthored with Matthieu Bussière (Banque de France), Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France), Jonas Heipertz (Paris School of Economics), we re-examine uncovered interest parity – the proposition that anticipated exchange rate changes should offset interest rate differentials. This is one ...

July 10, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1761965

“For many, many years, the United States has suffered through massive trade deficits. That’s why we have $20 trillion in debt. So we’ll be changing that.”

This statement was made during the meeting with the South Korean President on June 30th [1]

The United States has experienced large ...

July 8, 2017, 10:04 pm, 1761565

That’s from Bloomberg. Ya gotta wonder who’s running the show there.

For the sake of concreteness, here is a time series plot of GDP (in PPP terms, current international dollars) for the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan, and US.