Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economics Unbound (Mike Mandel)

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221407

Over the next week, as I clean up my desk, I'm going to be doing short reviews of books that I have been meaning to write about. Let's start with Profit Power Economics, a fascinating new book which combines corporate strategy and economics. The author, Mia de Kuijper, runs her ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221408

In recent months, I've repeatedly made the point that the financial crisis was a symptom, not a cause. Innovation was weaker than expected, private sector job growth outside of healthcare was virtually nonexistent, while real wages and real stock values showed little gains from the late 1990s to the end ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221409

This morning's productivity numbers showed a huge gain in output per hour in the third quarter--up at an annual rate of 9.5% in the nonfarm business sector.

But here's something else. If we are to believe these numbers, the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression has actually produced ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221410

I'm about to go down to DC to attend this conference (I'm giving the after-dinner remarks as well)

Measurement Issues Arising from the Growth of Globalization

This is a very important conference as we try to figure what is *really* going on in the U.S. economy. I'll be writing ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221406

...if anyone is interested.

Following my usual practice, I regret to inform you that I've reduced my investments in domestic equities. I think this play still has another unhappy act to run before the (perhaps) happy ending. But is there an intermission?

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221405

Here's more bad news for jobs.

According to this morning's trade report, the advanced technology trade deficit widened to $18.2 billion in the third quarter, up from $12.9 billion in the second quarter of 2009 (advanced technology products include 10 categories, such as information and communications, biotechnology, and ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221402

To confirm the rumors: I was not offered a position by Bloomberg.

To my friends at BusinessWeek, both old and new: We had a fantastic run, and I loved working with you all. Sometimes we were good, sometimes we were great, but we always had integrity and soul (yes, that's ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221403

The headline number for this morning's PPI report was an 0.6% decline in the price of finished goods less food and energy ("core PPI"). In fact, core finished goods PPI has fallen for 4 out of the past 6 months. So if we just look at this number, inflation ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221404

Next week I'm looking forward to speaking at two important innovation-related conferences. On Thursday I will be in Chicago at "Innovating Our Way to Prosperity" put on by The Institute for Work and the Economy. It's obviously a critical topic these days, given the weak state of the job ...

February 11, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1221401

You can find my next blog at

I'm taking a hiatus from blogging for about a month. But I will be focusing on innovation and growth.

(If there's any problem with getting to the blog, let me know)