Economics Roundtable
Job Losses - I
This graph all too clearly illusttrates the current situation.
Job Losses - II
U.S. payroll employment is now almost 300,000 jobs below the worst month in the previous recession.
After a massive downward revision in the past year's payroll employment figures, the total for January 2010 is 129,527,000. The minimum payroll employment in the previous recession was 129,822,00 for August 2003.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
A Positive Number
The revised November change in U.S. payroll employment is +4,000. This is the first positive number since December 2007. Positive is good.
The other side of the coin is that December 2009 payroll employment was 130,910,000. December 1999 payroll employment was 130.532,000. The increase of 378,000 jobs in 10 years is not so good. The labor force increased by 12,882,000 over the same period.
A Troubling Chart
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
If payroll employment does not increase for January and February, payroll employment for February 2010 will be less than payroll employment for February 2000.
The chart below shows percentage changes in U.S. payroll employment (blue) and civilian labor force (red) over the previous ten years.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Good Economics
Bruce Yandle lists the reasons why Cash for Clunkers is a Loser. Among other things, it is the latest example of The Broken Window Fallacy, which was clearly explained by Frederick Bastiat, 1801-1850.
James Hamilton gives a clear explanation of why comparing the level of government debt in 1945 to the projected level of government debt in ten years is not comforting, but is downright scary.
Gregory Mankiw neatly explains the "third factor" consideration in the difference between correlation and causation. Paul Krugman adds a comment, and Mankiw responds.
100%
The Economics Roundtable includes 100% of the Wall Street Journal's Top 25 Economics Blogs plus 120 more.
No Ads!
David Warsh explains why Mark Thoma does not take ads at Economist's View and adds insightful commentary on economics bloggers.
Thinking About Jobs
Jeff Frankel lays out a balanced view of the current employment statistics.
Last Month: Jeff Frankel says that the labor market has NOT yet signalled a turning point. Check the graph of weekly hours at the bottom of the page.
Clive Granger, 1934-2009
We have lost an original thinker of the first magnitude. Clive W. J. Granger.
Auctions and Politicians
Catch up on the background for one of the newest areas of Economics Engineering.
The Clark Medal: A Hindcast
David Warsh identifies the likely winners of the John Bates Clark Medal for even-numbered years. The award has, of course, been announced only in odd-numbered years. Who did we miss?
Why Card Issuers Engage In Rate-Jacking
Adam Levitin of Credit Slips explains another "benefit" of securitization. The economics of this market structure are stunningly bad.
The Geithner Plan
Will it work? Paul Krugman says no.
The New York Times'
Room for Debate
includes Simon Johnson, Brad DeLong, and Mark Toma.
Equilibrium and Meltdown
George Waters addresses the economic crisis and the state of macroeconomics.
Gzing! Gzing! Gzing!
David Warsh offers a fascinating account of the invention of earmarks. Catch his review of So Damn Much Money: The Triumph of Lobbying and the Corrosion of American Government, by Robert G. Kaiser.
VoxEU -- Free Online Book
Rescuing our jobs and savings: What G7/8 leaders can do to solve the global credit crisis -- Contents Page
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen
"Without rapid and coordinated action by G7/8 leaders, this financial crisis could turn into a jobs crisis, a pension crisis and much more. This column introduces a collection of essays by leading economists on what the G7/8 leaders should do this weekend. The dozen essays present a remarkable consensus on a few points: we need immediate, coordinated global action that includes recapitalisation of the banks."
Economic Principals
Congratulations to David Warsh on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of EP.
The First Global Financial Crisis
of the 21st Century
A VoxEU.org Publication
Edited by Andrew Felton and Carmen Reinhart
Read the announcement
and/or download selected chapters.
Review: the topic itself is important, but this book also marks a new direction for online discussion.
Great Articles by Famous Economists
The Library of Economics and Liberty includes The Concise Encyclopeida of Economics. To see how many well-known economists have contributed browse by category .
EconModel
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economics Unbound (Mike Mandel)
Over the next week, as I clean up my desk, I'm going to be doing short reviews of books that I have been meaning to write about. Let's start with Profit Power Economics, a fascinating new book which combines corporate strategy and economics. The author, Mia de Kuijper, runs her ...
In recent months, I've repeatedly made the point that the financial crisis was a symptom, not a cause. Innovation was weaker than expected, private sector job growth outside of healthcare was virtually nonexistent, while real wages and real stock values showed little gains from the late 1990s to the end ...
This morning's productivity numbers showed a huge gain in output per hour in the third quarter--up at an annual rate of 9.5% in the nonfarm business sector.
But here's something else. If we are to believe these numbers, the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression has actually produced ...
I'm about to go down to DC to attend this conference (I'm giving the after-dinner remarks as well)
Measurement Issues Arising from the Growth of Globalization
This is a very important conference as we try to figure what is *really* going on in the U.S. economy. I'll be writing ...
...if anyone is interested.
Following my usual practice, I regret to inform you that I've reduced my investments in domestic equities. I think this play still has another unhappy act to run before the (perhaps) happy ending. But is there an intermission?
Here's more bad news for jobs.
According to this morning's trade report, the advanced technology trade deficit widened to $18.2 billion in the third quarter, up from $12.9 billion in the second quarter of 2009 (advanced technology products include 10 categories, such as information and communications, biotechnology, and ...
To confirm the rumors: I was not offered a position by Bloomberg.
To my friends at BusinessWeek, both old and new: We had a fantastic run, and I loved working with you all. Sometimes we were good, sometimes we were great, but we always had integrity and soul (yes, that's ...
The headline number for this morning's PPI report was an 0.6% decline in the price of finished goods less food and energy ("core PPI"). In fact, core finished goods PPI has fallen for 4 out of the past 6 months. So if we just look at this number, inflation ...
Next week I'm looking forward to speaking at two important innovation-related conferences. On Thursday I will be in Chicago at "Innovating Our Way to Prosperity" put on by The Institute for Work and the Economy. It's obviously a critical topic these days, given the weak state of the job ...
You can find my next blog at
www.southmountaineconomics.com
I'm taking a hiatus from blogging for about a month. But I will be focusing on innovation and growth.
(If there's any problem with getting to the blog, let me know)