Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Tax Foundation

March 3, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1432833

A report of mine was quoted recently in the Wall Street Journal, and it drew a response from a concerned reader.

The “Notable & Quotable” of Feb. 23, which is from the Tax Foundation’s report “Sources of Personal Income,” correctly points out that middle-class Americans earn substantial ...

March 3, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1432666

Since we released our report on sources of personal income in 2012, I’ve gotten a lot of questions and comments on pension and retirement income, specifically. This category of income is often weirdly overlooked or forgotten, so I’m glad to comment on it further.

One thing I wanted to ...

March 3, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1432586

This morning, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled (PDF) for the taxpayers in Direct Marketing Association v. Brohl, a challenge to Colorado’s “Amazon tax.” That law requires Internet retailers to (1) notify their Colorado customers of the obligation to pay state taxes on their online purchases, with dates and ...

March 3, 2015, 11:03 am, 1432504

The U.S. federal government funds infrastructure projects through the highway trust fund. This trust fund receives revenue from mainly the excise tax on gasoline, and uses the revenue to pay for transportation projects through grants to state and local governments.

The taxes and spending associated with the highway trust fund ...

March 2, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1431847

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has been highlighting a significant issue lately: the importance of projected interest rates on our long-term fiscal outlook.

The future is uncertain in general, but in many ways this is especially true for the federal budget. For example, tax revenues and certain ...

February 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1430659

If you haven’t been living under a rock for the last two days, you’ve probably noticed that the internet is losing its mind over the infamous dress that’s seen by some as black and blue and by others as white and gold.

This got us thinking: regardless of how you see ...

February 27, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1430569

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Mike Enzi (R-WY) and House Budget Committee Chairman (R-GA) jointly named Dr. Keith Hall the new Director of the Congressional Budget Office, succeeding the outgoing director, Dr. Douglas Elmendorf.

Dr. Hall has served the federal government in a number of important posts including Chief Economist ...

February 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1430490

Yesterday we published an overview and dynamic modeling results for a business tax proposal by Representative Devin Nunes (R-CA). This tax plan has been developing for several years now, largely without heavy media attention.

It has now reached the point where it should probably turn more heads.

Some tax plans, ...

February 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1430489

Currently, federal, state, and local governments levy gas taxes in order to fund road construction and repair. The taxes and spending associated with roads is an example of the benefit principle of taxation. This principle states that the taxes one pays to the government should be connected to the ...

February 27, 2015, 11:03 am, 1430395

In filing my own taxes, the most difficult part to calculate has always been the Qualified Dividends and Capital Gain Tax worksheet. I often have to do it several times in order to make sure I did not mess it up. And I work for Tax Foundation! I ...