Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Tax Foundation

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773903

Last Friday, Maine Governor Paul LePage released his biennial $6.8 billion budget. Under his new budget, LePage introduces several changes to the tax code, including changes to individual income taxes, corporate taxes, the sales tax, and the elimination of the estate tax.

One major reform proposal in the state’s ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773904

A lot of tax discussion recently has focused on foreign exchange rates and border adjustments. Rather than talk about difficult abstractions, I thought it might be helpful to think about things in terms of a real physical business and its real physical outputs.

What follows, I hope, will help show ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773905

With the elections over and Donald Trump the President-elect, the question becomes how Trump can fulfill his campaign promises. One of his promises is job growth in the U.S. But in an economy where below 2 percent growth has become normal, Trump will have to think creatively about stimulating ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773906

On January 1st, the controversial Philadelphia soda tax took effect. It is levied at a rate of 1.5 cents per ounce, which is 24 times the tax levied on beer in the state of Pennsylvania. This stark new tax has prompted a few interesting reactions on Twitter ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773902

On January 4, Indiana legislative leaders unveiled a plan to raise fuel taxes by 10 cents per gallon, increase the vehicle registration fee by $15 per year, and create a $150 per year fee on electric vehicles. All told, the plan would raise $300 million per year, costing ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773901

State-level taxes may be the most visible source of state government revenues for most taxpayers, but it’s important to remember that they are not the only source of state revenue. State governments also receive a significant amount of assistance from the federal government in the form of federal grants-in-aid. ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773898

Frequent travelers are painfully familiar with the high taxes that many localities and special tax districts levy on rental cars. Many can recall at least one instance when the tax burden rivaled or even exceeded the cost of the car itself. Even by these standards, however, Chicago is an ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773899

Many people are beginning to wrap their minds around the House Republicans’ proposed destination-based cash-flow tax and what it means for tax reform. Most people are still looking into the tax’s impacts on trade and how it will impact different industries. However, one important issue that has yet to be ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773900

Illinois continues to struggle with its budget. The state’s most recent stopgap budget expired on December 31, 2016. To perhaps break up the political logjam, Illinois senators of both political parties have begun negotiations on a compromise plan, which includes tax changes, pension reforms, and expanded ...

September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773897

Earlier this month I highlighted a potential tax compromise brewing in Illinois. State senate Republicans and Democrats released a proposal to increase Illinois’s individual income tax and corporate income tax, expand the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit, and create a statewide sugary beverage tax, among other things. The ...