Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Tax Foundation


March 25, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1445144

Some of the most substantial deductions in the federal tax code are the itemized deductions for state and local income, sales, and real estate taxes. This map shows the variation, by county, in ...


March 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1444635

The current federal top marginal tax rate on long-term capital gains in the United States is a total of 23.8 percent (20 percent plus a 3.8 percent tax to fund the Affordable Care Act) for taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of $200,000 ($250,000 married filing jointly) or more. In ...


March 24, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1444562

Truly an issue at the heart of public finance, the current quandary of how to fund U.S. infrastructure spending has risen to new levels. Among a handful proposals circulating in Congress, John Delaney (D-MD)—in what he purports is “a natural deal”—has introduced H.R. 625, which would levy a ...


March 20, 2015, 11:03 am, 1442706

After the IRS decision to allow gay and lesbian married couples to file joint federal tax returns, we noted that a number of states would have to provide guidance because they require two contradictory things: (1) if you file a joint federal return, you must file a joint state ...


March 19, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1442189

Right now, Iowa’s income tax has nine different brackets, with rates ranging from 0.36 percent (in the first $1,539 of taxable income) to 8.98 percent (on all income above $69,255), and that’s not going away—but if some legislators get their way, taxpayers might have an alternative.

House Study Bill ...


March 19, 2015, 11:03 am, 1442028

According to Tax-News, Austria has announced a proposal to reform its income tax paired with adjustments to its property tax and value-added tax.

The income tax reforms would make their income tax system slightly more progressive. The bottom marginal tax rate (which is on income between $11,721 and $26,639) ...


March 19, 2015, 1:03 am, 1441751

Someone mailed us their tax returns and documents today. We quickly sent it back to that individual, as we neither process tax returns nor assist individuals with tax planning or preparation. Tax documents contain a lot of private information and everyone should be very careful about to whom they ...


March 18, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1441452

A recent New York Times article by Josh Barro has questioned the Tax Foundation’s TAG model forecast of the economic gains to be expected for the Lee-Rubio tax reform plan. We show an eventual increase in the GDP of about 15 percent.  We assume this would occur over ...


March 17, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1440931

In a column on TheUpshot, Josh Barro claims that our analysis of the Rubio-Lee tax reform plan is “too aggressive” and that he spoke with ten public finance economists who agree. Much of his criticism hinges on a quote by Laurence Kotlikoff, who felt the need to clarify ...


March 16, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1440106

Senators Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Mike Lee (R-UT) released their plan to reform the federal tax code last week. The proposal would overhaul both the individual and corporate tax codes, provide a significant boost to the economy, lift incomes across the board, and result in a $1.7 trillion tax cut over a ...