Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Tax Foundation

January 18, 2017, 7:03 pm, 1711690

Many people are beginning to wrap their minds around the House Republicans’ proposed destination-based cash-flow tax and what it means for tax reform. Most people are still looking into the tax’s impacts on trade and how it will impact different industries. However, one important issue that has yet to be ...

January 12, 2017, 5:03 pm, 1710110

Illinois continues to struggle with its budget. The state’s most recent stopgap budget expired on December 31, 2016. To perhaps break up the political logjam, Illinois senators of both political parties have begun negotiations on a compromise plan, which includes tax changes, pension reforms, and expanded ...

January 11, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1709729

State-level taxes may be the most visible source of state government revenues for most taxpayers, but it’s important to remember that they are not the only source of state revenue. State governments also receive a significant amount of assistance from the federal government in the form of federal grants-in-aid.

In ...

January 11, 2017, 11:03 am, 1709635

On January 4, Indiana legislative leaders unveiled a plan to raise fuel taxes by 10 cents per gallon, increase the vehicle registration fee by $15 per year, and create a $150 per year fee on electric vehicles. All told, the plan would raise $300 million per year, costing ...

January 10, 2017, 7:03 pm, 1709424

Last Friday, Maine Governor Paul LePage released his biennial $6.8 billion budget. Under his new budget, LePage introduces several changes to the tax code, including changes to individual income taxes, corporate taxes, the sales tax, and the elimination of the estate tax.

One major reform proposal in the state’s ...

January 9, 2017, 7:03 pm, 1709055

A lot of tax discussion recently has focused on foreign exchange rates and border adjustments. Rather than talk about difficult abstractions, I thought it might be helpful to think about things in terms of a real physical business and its real physical outputs.

What follows, I hope, will help show ...

January 9, 2017, 3:03 pm, 1708970

With the elections over and Donald Trump the President-elect, the question becomes how Trump can fulfill his campaign promises. One of his promises is job growth in the U.S. But in an economy where below 2 percent growth has become normal, Trump will have to think creatively about stimulating ...

January 4, 2017, 7:03 pm, 1707758

On January 1st, the controversial Philadelphia soda tax took effect. It is levied at a rate of 1.5 cents per ounce, which is 24 times the tax levied on beer in the state of Pennsylvania. This stark new tax has prompted a few interesting reactions on Twitter ...

January 4, 2017, 1:03 pm, 1707636

States compete with each other in a number of ways. Attracting (and retaining) new residents is one of the areas of competition.

To help quantify where individuals move, United Van Lines, the largest moving company in America, releases a report each January compiling its client data for the previous year. ...

December 30, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1706647

The new year is just a matter of hours away, and once we ring it in, several states will be implementing changes to their tax codes. One of the places we will be seeing a lot of action is in corporate income taxes, where many states are continuing to ...