Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Tax Foundation

January 29, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1603525

Legislation being considered with bipartisan support in the Ohio Senate would permanently extend the state’s tax holiday on back-to-school gear.

Senate Bill 264 would permanently eliminate sales taxes on the first Friday, Saturday and Sunday of each August on select back-to-school items, including:

Clothing items (ranging from hats and ...

January 29, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1603526

Americans paid $129 billion more in income taxes in 2015 than they did in 2014, according to data released today by the IRS. While taxpayers’ incomes grew by 6.1 percent from the year before, their overall tax bill grew by 10.0 percent.

The new data is the public’s first ...

January 29, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1603467

Tax Analysts had an excellent story by Ajay Gupta a few days ago about the deft tax planning of David Bowie. The piece traces the story of Bowie’s success and consequent locale ch-changes to avoid some of the most inhospitable tax rates in particular parts of the world.

In ...

January 28, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1603095

Voters in Iowa who plan on attending Monday’s Democratic caucuses will be making a choice between two very different tax policy visions from the leading candidates. This contrast is so stark that it can be expressed pretty simply with a visualization. I’ll first show you a graph that illustrates ...

January 28, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1603051

Today, the Tax Foundation released an analysis of Senator Bernie Sanders’s tax plan. In many ways, Sanders’s plan is the most ambitious plan proposed by any of the 2016 presidential candidates. It would increase federal taxes by $13.6 trillion on a static basis – larger than the ...

January 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1603008

The Florida House of Representatives released its tax proposal yesterday, and it is worse than the mediocre plan released by Governor Rick Scott in November. The House plan includes several of the positive aspects of Governor Scott’s plan, but expands on the silly idea of sales tax holidays. 

The ...

January 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1602606

We have modeled the economic effects of seven tax plans released by seven of the Republican Presidential candidates. (Click here to see our presidential tax plan analyses).  This blog provides a convenient side-by-side comparison of the GDP and federal revenue estimates in the seven plans. The numbers are ...

January 27, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1602566

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) this week released its latest Budget and Economic Outlook, a document that includes projections about the U.S. economy and fiscal situation over the next decade. One interesting prediction highlighted in the report was the CBO’s belief that corporate income tax revenues, as a ...

January 26, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1602291

Professor Peter Fisher

Dear Dr. Fisher,

I want to alert you to errors on your Grading the States website with respect to our State Business Tax Climate Index.

Regarding the page “The SBTCI Bears No Relation to Actual Taxes on Business,” your headline should be revised to make ...

January 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1602256

Americans of different ages tend to live in different places. This makes a great deal of sense; peoples’ needs when they are working are different from their needs in retirement. This map uses ...