Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Tax Foundation

September 2, 2014, 9:03 am, 1327777

One of the loudest critics of the recent wave of corporate inversions is University of Southern California law professor Ed Kleinbard, who warns that these transactions will erode the U.S. corporate tax base because these newly relocated firms will use “intragroup interest payments” to “strip” income out of their ...

August 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1326552

Inversions have been in the news consistently this summer as multiple companies have looked for legal paths away from the U.S. corporate tax system. Burger King became the latest corporation to add to the list after they announced their planned moved to Canada. The reason: Our corporate tax ...

August 28, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1326073

Matt Yglesias at Vox today argues that migration out of “blue states” is caused by high housing prices, not taxes, and high housing prices are essentially a function of bad zoning laws in “blue” cities. Yglesias literally wrote the book on this topic, ...

August 27, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1325570

Canada is apparently becoming an attractive place to do business. This week Burger King announced plans to move its headquarters to Canada, via a merger with Tim Hortons. Other U.S. companies that have recently moved or announced plans to move to Canada include Bausch and Lomb, Allergan, ...

August 26, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1324970

Burger King’s announcement that it will move its headquarters to Canada has put the spotlight on Canada’s tax system. Just what are the tax benefits of doing business in Canada versus the U.S.?

First, Canada has a much lower corporate tax rate: 15 percent at the federal level plus ...

August 26, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1324898

In his recent newsletter, John Mauldin suggests that economic growth is the most important issue for economists. I quote him here at length (emphasis added):

"What to do about economic growth is perhaps the single most important question of our time, as the demographics of the developed ...

August 26, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1324897

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ Michael Mazerov has a blog post out today covering the same Upshot blog migration tool we covered recently. Mazerov points out that states with no income tax appear to have done a worse job holding onto migrants than other ...

August 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1324173

In today’s New York Times, Paul Krugman has an op-ed on migration. This has been a popular topic for various New York Times writers recently, with the Upshot blog producing one of the more interesting tools to date for looking at migration matters. In his op-ed, ...

August 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1323156

In a recent interview with Harvard Business Review, Harvard Business School’s Mihir Desai and Bill George gave some great insight on inversions, who really pays the corporate tax, profit shifting, and corporate tax reform.

Below are a few selections from the interview, but the whole story is worth ...

August 21, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1322656

Dan Mitchell’s article today in the Wall Street Journal about why need marginal tax rate cuts rather than child tax credits has elicited a response from Jim Pethokoukis of AEI:

From 1987 through 1992 — after the much ballyhooed 1986 tax reform — the top marginal ...