Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rossputin (Ross Kaminsky)

"  Rational Thinking About Our World”

“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”

October 6, 2015, 11:23 am, 1553908

I don’t often write about gun issues; there are more than enough pro-2nd Amendment voices out there to cover that beat and, I admit, some part of me wishes it would vanish as a political issue. (I say that as someone who owns about a dozen guns, from pistols to ...

October 2, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1552551

On Wednesday night Fox News’s Bill O’Reilly and pundit/columnist Charles Krauthammer debated the ignorance and passivity of the American electorate.

O’Reilly argued that polling showing Vice President Joe Biden leading every Republican in a hypothetical presidential election despite the same poll respondents’ recognizing that the country is on ...

September 22, 2015, 9:23 am, 1547450

Complaining about liberal media bias is like complaining about a puppy peeing on the rug: it’s just what they do, and if you don’t like it then don’t have them in your house.

We’ve all seen editorials masquerading as news and television anchors impersonating objective journalists when hosting Republican debates or ...

September 17, 2015, 1:23 pm, 1545462

Over at the American Spectator web site, I've posted my brief review of last night's debate with (roughly) two sentences on each candidate's performance. Please have a look!

Link to Original post at

September 16, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1544959

Liberal pundits are wetting themselves over the supposed “radicalization” of the Republican Party, their cries ever more plaintive with the rise of Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner. (See here, here, here, and here.) Other than Trump’s call ...

September 11, 2015, 11:23 am, 1542623

Donald Trump is a brave truth-teller…right?

When he says to Rolling Stone about Carly Fiorina, “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?!” don’t you think he’s probably talking about her face? Don’t you think he’s just calling her ...

September 4, 2015, 9:23 pm, 1539614

Two weeks ago, the executive committee of the Colorado Republican Party voted to eliminate the presidential preference poll, which has been held in each of the two prior presidential cycles — and with Colorado caucus participants choosing someone other than the eventual winner both times.

Heading into a nominating season that ...

August 18, 2015, 11:23 am, 1530299

Like most things Donald Trump says, his immigration proposal — only slightly more detailed than most of his superficial bombast — contains a few grains of rationality and a large helping of the sort of xenophobia and economic ignorance that appeals to a slice of the Republican ...

August 5, 2015, 11:23 am, 1522463

The chattering class is all atwitter about the possibility of Vice President Joe Biden entering the Democratic presidential primary race. Whether or not it happens, the fact that (as Douglas Adams would have put it) “the slightest thought has begun to ...

July 31, 2015, 11:23 am, 1519440

Barack Obama is the most “Progressive” of recent, and perhaps of all, American presidents. Indeed he is the only recent Democratic president rightly characterized as “Progressive” rather than just liberal.

But with massive increases in government debt and food stamp use, declines in labor force participation, the impending insolvency ...