Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rossputin (Ross Kaminsky)

"  Rational Thinking About Our World”

“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”

January 20, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1600619

More people watched a TV drama than the Democratic debate on Sunday, and please don't tell me the debate was a drama...

Link to Original post at

January 1, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1595349

Please check out my op-ed for the Denver Post with some predictions for 2016:

Here's the one prediction they cut out of my article:

Elsewhere, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announces that the Garden State will create its own version of Mt. Rushmore – featuring cultural icons Kim Kardashian, ...

December 22, 2015, 11:23 am, 1593248

If recent polls from more than half a dozen reputable polling organizations are to be believed, of the six leading Republican candidates for president Donald Trump is the one least likely to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 general election.

Polling can be and has often been wrong, sometimes ...

December 18, 2015, 11:23 am, 1592323

I'm very happy and proud to let you know that starting Monday, January 4, 2016, I'll be the new host of the morning drive radio show (6 AM to 10 AM, with recorded 5 AM hour) on Denver's Talk Station, TalkRadio 630 KHOW. My good friend Mandy Connell will be ...

December 10, 2015, 11:23 am, 1589116

Something has changed.

Last week my wife said to me, “I think I’d like to get a gun.” By which she meant a gun she can carry with her. If my wife were from Texas, this might not be surprising. But she is from Australia, a country which for two decades ...

December 3, 2015, 9:23 am, 1585650

I suspect that my reaction to news of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s plan to give away 99 percent of his Facebook stock, currently worth about $45 billion, may not have been the same as yours.

Please read my article for the American Spectator here:

Link to Original ...

November 24, 2015, 9:23 am, 1581298

One need not violate Godwin’s Law to recognize that there’s something deeply troubling about a leading presidential candidate having no objection to his supporters “roughing up” a vocal dissenter. But that was Donald Trump’s reaction after several attendees at a Saturday rally in Birmingham, Alabama “shoved, tackled, punched ...

November 10, 2015, 5:23 pm, 1574226

I asked a friend who hails from Michigan, "How would you feel if it became illegal for supermarkets to sell beer and wine?" He looked at me like I was crazy. Indeed, the question seems a ridiculous one. The idea that government would prevent me or you from ...

November 9, 2015, 9:23 am, 1573119

What a Friday that was: Ben Carson showed emotion when pushing back against a desperately dirt-digging media — dirt-digging against Republicans, that is; George Will remained equanimous in the face of a verbal assault from Fox News’s Bill O’Reilly; Barack Obama gave the coup de grâce to the Keystone XL ...

November 5, 2015, 11:23 am, 1570772

As a political columnist, it has meant a lot to me — certainly more than it has to them — to meet the three best and most important political writers in America today: George Will, Charles Krauthammer and, most recently, Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan.

In recent years, I’ve had ...