Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rossputin (Ross Kaminsky)

"Rossputin.com:  Rational Thinking About Our World”

“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”


May 8, 2016, 11:23 am, 1634349

Shortly after Tuesday night's Indiana political earthquake which left Donald Trump as the near-certain Republican presidential nominee, Trump thanked Ted Cruz for dropping out of the race because "we want to bring unity to the Republican Party."

Twelve hours later, I received a call to my radio show from a man ...


April 12, 2016, 9:24 am, 1625880

“Fury as Colorado has no primary or caucus!” shrieked a scandalized


April 7, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1624830

On Tuesday, in an unsuccessful last ditch effort to revive his flagging hopes in the Wisconsin primary election, Donald Trump posted to his website a plan to “compel Mexico to pay for the wall.”

The heart of the plan is to threaten to amend federal regulations so that the Department ...


March 30, 2016, 9:23 am, 1622244

If the average of recent polls showing Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by more than 11 percentage points is correct, you’d have to go back to Ulysses Grant’s 1872 thumping of Horace Greeley to find such a landslide.

Even recent elections that we think of as utter domination ...


March 22, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1620226

Fifty seconds. A little more than one second per dead body. That’s what President Barack Obama spent opening his Tuesday morning press conference from Havana, Cuba, reacting to the death of at least 30 human beings and injuries to at least 230 more in two coordinated terrorist attacks in Brussels.

Fifty ...


March 16, 2016, 3:23 pm, 1618473

Donald Trump and his fellow liberals Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are lambasting free trade as the scourge of the American working man. How odd it is that an economic activity so beneficial to almost every American, indeed to the vast majority of the human race, suffers such attacks with ...


March 7, 2016, 9:23 am, 1615513

It was an ugly weekend for Donald Trump — his first in a primary election season that for Republicans has been somewhere between a surprise and an embarrassment. Not only did Ted Cruz win two of Saturday’s four primaries and caucuses, trouncing Trump in Kansas and Maine, but Trump barely ...


February 28, 2016, 11:23 am, 1613078

If anybody has friends in Gilpin County, in the area of Roy's Last Shot, Lump Gulch, Snowline Lake, Gold/Quartz roads, etc., could you please ask them to keep an eye out for our missing dog? Her name is Luna. She's a blue-merle colored corgi with ...


February 23, 2016, 7:23 pm, 1611503

I shouldn’t have been surprised. It was, after all, a Republican Party event I was speaking at…

I recently had the privilege to be the keynote speaker at the Douglas County (Colorado) Republican Party’s Lincoln Day dinner. “DougCo,” a large suburban and rural county south of Denver, is, in percentage terms, ...


February 9, 2016, 11:23 pm, 1607043

My colleague Scott McKay’s prediction that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will become the Democrats’ white knight after Hillary Clinton’s campaign collapses under the weight of her own misdeeds seems less of a longshot today than just a few weeks ago.

But despite the worsening stream of news ...