Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Rossputin (Ross Kaminsky)

"Rossputin.com:  Rational Thinking About Our World”

“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”


September 13, 2017, 5:28 pm, 1775218

My radio job is so time-consuming that I don't have time to blog beyond what I write for my radio blog at http://rosskaminsky.com and for the American Spectator.

So for the time being, I won't be updating this web site anymore. It's been an incredible run in ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773674

“Fury as Colorado has no primary or caucus!” shrieked a scandalized


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773675

On Tuesday, in an unsuccessful last ditch effort to revive his flagging hopes in the Wisconsin primary election, Donald Trump posted to his website a plan to “compel Mexico to pay for the wall.”

The heart of the plan is to threaten to amend federal regulations so that the Department ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773676

If the average of recent polls showing Donald Trump losing to Hillary Clinton by more than 11 percentage points is correct, you’d have to go back to Ulysses Grant’s 1872 thumping of Horace Greeley to find such a landslide.

Even recent elections that we think of as utter domination ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773673

Shortly after Tuesday night's Indiana political earthquake which left Donald Trump as the near-certain Republican presidential nominee, Trump thanked Ted Cruz for dropping out of the race because "we want to bring unity to the Republican Party."

Twelve hours later, I received a call to my radio show from a man ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773672

For one primary reason, Mitt Romney was, in the 2012 presidential election, the worst possible choice out of the several most credible Republican hopefuls to challenge President Barack Obama’s re-election: Obamacare should have been the defining issue of that campaign but Romney was singularly unable to prosecute the case against ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773669

The political world is all atwitter following Donald Trump’s statement last Thursday in Charlotte, North Carolina that, “believe it or not,” he regrets having said “the wrong thing” in the past, “particularly where it may have caused personal pain,” a list which might include Heidi Cruz, Megyn Kelly, ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773670

Over Independence Day weekend, my 8-year-old son and I visited my sister’s lake house in eastern Tennessee. Among their toys is a Sea-Doo, a fancy version of what we used to call a jet ski, and truly one of the most thrilling rides you’ll ever have. Jasper and I went ...


September 12, 2017, 1:18 pm, 1773671

As I watch FBI Director James Comey respond to members of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, even as I attempt to correct for my fear and loathing of Hillary Rodham Clinton, the “nothing to see here” approach of the Democratic members of the committee is shocking. Or ...