Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Rossputin (Ross Kaminsky)

"  Rational Thinking About Our World”

“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”

April 24, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1260477

At least that's how the folks at American Commitment put it.

While I don't think attacks based on mysterious unknown billionaires are particularly effective, the new ad from American Commitment arguing that Colorado Senator Mark Udall has sold out Coloradoans by opposing the Keystone Pipeline is a good one.

The vote against ...

April 23, 2014, 9:23 am, 1259529

Michael Lewis is one of America’s most successful story-tellers. But in his new book, Flash Boys, a superficial one-sided discussion of “High Frequency Trading” (“HFT”) — and his repeated pronouncements that the stock market is “rigged” and a “fraud” — Mr. Lewis’s bombastic conclusions are as harmful as ...

April 15, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1256133

Here in Colorado, Republican state senator Scott Renfroe is taking his third shot at banning photo speed cameras and photo red light cameras. In large part due to Democrats' concerns with privacy following the revelations about NSA spying, Renfroe now has key Democratic support, including the president of the state ...

April 2, 2014, 5:23 pm, 1249981

By a 5-4 vote along the usual “conservative versus liberal” fault line, the Supreme Court has struck down aggregate limits on political contributions. Currently, the federal government restricts the amount of money a person may contribute to a political candidate, party, or PAC — these are called “base limits.” Base ...

April 1, 2014, 7:23 pm, 1249453

The Associated Press is reporting, quoting unnamed sources, that Attorney General Eric Holder is preparing a criminal indictment of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius based on a still-secret joint finding by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Justice Department that Sebelius received payments from a secretive conservative ...

March 31, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1248583

As education scholars at AEI put it, Douglas County, Colorado is the "most interesting school district in America" as it "tests the limits of education reform." And like any good reforms, Douglas County's revolutionary changes (which are likely important factors in making DougCo one of the fastest ...

March 28, 2014, 1:23 pm, 1247635

Colorado Senator Mark Udall didn’t get the memo (penned by Alex Sink, no doubt): Standing up for Obamacare isn’t exactly a winning strategy for Democrats in 2014. In an interview with Colorado Morning News (on 850 KOA in Denver, where my Saturday radio show airs), Senator Udall ...

March 21, 2014, 11:23 am, 1244177

Most of today’s discussions about “income inequality” focus on the economic and political impacts of Democratic tax and labor policies such as more sharply “progressive” income tax rates, raising the minimum wage, or increasing eligibility for overtime pay.

On the left, Paul Krugman, President Obama, media economorons (such ...

March 19, 2014, 11:23 pm, 1243272

Most Americans, and certainly most liberals, are uncomfortable with silencers on pistols. After all, it stands to reason (even if not always the case) that someone who has acquired the ability to use violence with a low risk of detection is more likely to be violent; silencing a weapon might ...

March 12, 2014, 3:23 pm, 1239561

I don't mean that there are enough women in the workforce, or that women should be "barefoot and pregnant." After all, my mother was a US Navy Admiral.

What I mean is that I'm so tired of hearing people like the Obama administration economist who is speaking at today's White House ...