May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
I have a new column:
Why the Public Has Stopped Paying Attention to Economist: The predictions from economists about the consequences of Brexit were widely ignored. That shouldn’t be surprising. In recent years the public has lost faith the in the economics profession.
One reason for the lack ...
Jason Furman at ProMarket:
Productivity, Inequality, and Economic Rents: Productivity growth—a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for rising incomes in the long run—has slowed since 1973... At the same time, inequality in the United States is higher and, in recent decades, has risen faster than in other major advanced ...
Fed Once Again Overtaken By Events, by Tim Duy: With global financial markets reeling in the wake of Brexit - Britain's unforced error as a political gamble went too far - the Fed is back on the sidelines. A July hike was already out of the question ...
Roberto Astolfi of the OECD Statistics Directorate:
Did the OECD Composite Leading Indicators see it coming?: ...Professor Luis Garicano of the London School of Economics is ... the man Queen Elizabeth asked “Why did no one see it coming?”; “it” being the crisis. In retelling the story, ...
Cecchetti & Schoenholtz:
A Primer on Helicopter Money: ... We are wary of joining the cacophony of commentators on helicopter money, but our sense is that the discussion could use a bit of structure. So, as textbook authors, we aim to provide some pedagogy. (For the record, here are ...
Property Rights, the Income Distribution and China: ...why has the distribution of income, in the United States and Europe, tilted towards capital and away from labor over the past few decades? There is growing evidence that this redistribution is connected with the opening of trade ...
Brad Delong (The VoxEU column is in the post below this one):
In Which I Call for Academic Scribblers and Funct Economists to Enter into Utopian Frenzy with Respect to the Institutional Design of the Eurozone: From my perspective, this piece at Vox.eu makes many too many ...