Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


September 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1678295

September 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1678233

A colleague, Bruce Blonigen, has a new paper at the Economic Journal:

When Industrial Policy Harms Performance: Evidence from the World Steel Industry, by Romesh Vaitilingam RES: The use of industrial policies to support a country’s steel sector has damaging effects on the export competitiveness of downstream manufacturing sectors ...


September 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1678167

September 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1678035

I have a new column:

4 Reasons Trump’s Economic Policies Would Be a Disaster: Donald Trump’s chances of becoming president are higher than I ever expected them to be, and there is a chance that he will be able to put his economic plans into place. He claims his ...


September 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1678034

The press needs to tell the truth about lies:

The Lying Game, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Here’s what we can be fairly sure will happen in Monday’s presidential debate: Donald Trump will lie repeatedly and grotesquely, on a variety of subjects. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton might say a couple ...


September 23, 2016, 5:03 am, 1677919

September 22, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1677842

Caroline Freund at PIIE:

Estate Tax a Key Tool for Fighting US Inequality: This year marks the 100th anniversary of the US estate tax, which affects only the ultra-wealthy. Given the rising focus on American income inequality, the tax should be on solid ground. Not so.

Republican presidential candidate Donald ...


September 22, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1677710

Paul Krugman:

The Curious Confidence of Charlatans and Cranks: Brad DeLong tells us about a letter being circulated by economists for Trump — although, as he notes, they don’t dare say that, and describe themselves only as critics of Clinton. Several things are notable about the letter, ...


September 22, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1677711

At MoneyWatch, why I think Social Security and Medicare will be in danger of large cuts if Trump is elected:

Don't believe Trump’s tax and spending plans: Donald Trump’s new tax plan willincrease the national debtbetween $4.4 trillion and $5.9 trillion over a decade, and that’s according to ...


September 22, 2016, 5:03 am, 1677567