May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
Being honest about ideological influence in economics: Noah Smith has an article that talks about Paul Romer’s recent critique of macroeconomics. ... He says the fundamental problem with macroeconomics is lack of data, which is why disputes seem to take so long to ...
Alex Walsh at Regblog:
Evaluating Germany’s Success in Regulating High-Frequency Trading: ...Although many countries have attempted to regulate the meteoric rise of high-frequency trading, no plan has been more ambitious than Germany’s High-Frequency Trading Act (HFT Act). Rather than regulate trading speed alone, the HFT ...
A colleague, Bruce Blonigen, has a new paper (coauthored with Justin R. Pierce):
Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency, NBER Working Paper No. 22750 Issued in October 2016: Study of the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on productivity and market power has been complicated ...
It's Trump's party, so cry if you want to:
It’s Trump’s Party, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...Everyone who endorsed Mr. Trump in the past owns him now... And voters should realize that voting for any Trump endorser is, in effect, a vote for Trumpism, whatever happens at the ...
My latest column:
The Election Matters for the Future of the Economy: We are entering into a time period when economic growth may be lower than we are accustomed to, the likelihood of recessions may increase, and income will continue to be very unequally distributed.
Our response to these problems, ...