May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
A colleague, Bruce Blonigen, has a new paper at the Economic Journal:
When Industrial Policy Harms Performance: Evidence from the World Steel Industry, by Romesh Vaitilingam RES: The use of industrial policies to support a countryâ€™s steel sector has damaging effects on the export competitiveness of downstream manufacturing sectors ...
I have a new column:
4 Reasons Trumpâ€™s Economic Policies Would Be a Disaster: Donald Trumpâ€™s chances of becoming president are higher than I ever expected them to be, and there is a chance that he will be able to put his economic plans into place. He claims his ...
The press needs to tell the truth about lies:
The Lying Game, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Hereâ€™s what we can be fairly sure will happen in Mondayâ€™s presidential debate: Donald Trump will lie repeatedly and grotesquely, on a variety of subjects. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton might say a couple ...
Caroline Freund at PIIE:
Estate Tax a Key Tool for Fighting US Inequality: This year marks the 100th anniversary of the US estate tax, which affects only the ultra-wealthy. Given the rising focus on American income inequality, the tax should be on solid ground. Not so.
Republican presidential candidate Donald ...
The Curious Confidence of Charlatans and Cranks: Brad DeLong tells us about a letter being circulated by economists for Trump â€” although, as he notes, they donâ€™t dare say that, and describe themselves only as critics of Clinton. Several things are notable about the letter, ...
At MoneyWatch, why I think Social Security and Medicare will be in danger of large cuts if Trump is elected: