Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

November 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376716

Theera of "rock-bottom economics" is far from over:

Rock Bottom Economics, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Six years ago the Federal Reserve hit rock bottom. It had been cutting the federal funds rate ... more or less frantically in an unsuccessful attempt to get ahead of the recession ...

November 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376717

November 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376528

Jim Hamilton:

Lower oil prices and the U.S. economy: ... The current price of gasoline is 80 cents/gallon below what it has averaged over the last 3 years. Last year Americans consumed 135 billion gallons of gasoline. That means that if prices stay where they are, consumers will have ...

November 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376527

Since I posted an excerpt from Noah Smith's column, I should also post this response from Frances Woolley:

Is economics really a dismal science for women?: Donna Ginther and Shulamit Kahn have just published a paper that tracks thousands of American academics from the time they ...

November 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376402

November 22, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1376337

Fabian Kindermann and Dirk Krueger:

High marginal tax rates on the top 1%: Optimal tax rates for the rich are a perennial source of controversy. This column argues that high marginal tax rates on the top 1% of earners can make society as a whole better off. Not knowing whether ...

November 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1376313

Remember all those predictions from those with other agendas about runaway inflation (e.g. see Paul Krugman today on The Wisdom of Peter Schiff)?:

The Risks to the Inflation Outlook, by Vasco Cúrdia, FRBSF Economic Letter: The Federal Reserve responded to the recent financial crisis and the Great ...

November 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376135

November 21, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1375964

Noah Smith:

... Why is it that the sciences look like a feminist nirvana compared with the economics profession, which seems to have a built-in bias that prevents women from advancing? ...

More here.

November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375888

Alice Rivlin:

People Who Wanted Market-Driven Health Care Now Have it in the Affordable Care Act, by Alice M. Rivlin, Brookings: ... The United States ... relied primarily on employer-based health insurance, generously favored by tax laws. ... But there was a huge hole: Millions of people were left ...