Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

August 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1668038

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667903

What is Trump's pivot to crime all about?:

No, Donald Trump, America Isn’t a Hellhole, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...When the Trump campaign started, it was, at least nominally, about economics. Foreigners are stealing your jobs, the candidate declared, both through unfair trade and by coming here as ...

August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667902

Robert Shiller:

Today’s Inequality Could Easily Become Tomorrow’s Catastrophe: Economic inequality is already a concern, but it could become a nightmare in the decades ahead, and I fear that we are not well equipped to deal with it. ...

One way to judge the likely outcome is to look at ...

August 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1667781

August 25, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1667687

Brad DeLong:

Why Do We Talk About “Helicopter Money”?: Why do we talk about “helicopter money”? We talk about helicopter money because we seek a tool for managing aggregate demand–for nudging the level of spending in an economy up to but not above the economy’s current sustainable productive potential–that ...

August 25, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667567

From Real Time Economics at the WSJ:

Economists Who’ve Advised Presidents Are No Fans of Donald Trump: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who hasbroken with many of the GOP’s traditional positions on economic policy, garners nosupport from any of theWhite Houseeconomists who have advised U.S. presidents for the ...

August 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1667431

August 24, 2016, 7:03 am, 1667126

Travel day. Not sure when I can post.

August 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1667102

August 23, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1667019

David Halpern at Bank Underground:

It’s time to bring more realistic models of human behaviour into economic policy andregulation: The Centre for Central Banking Studies recently hosted their annual Chief Economists Workshop, whose theme was “What can policymakers learn from other disciplines”. In this guest post, one of ...