Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


July 31, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1308980

Simon Wren-Lewis

What are academics good for?: A survey of US academic economists, which found that 36 thought the Obama fiscal stimulus reduced unemployment and only one thought otherwise, led to this cri de coeur from Paul Krugman. What is the point in having academic research ...


July 31, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1308981

Dean Baker:

Curb Your Enthusiasm: One Percent GDP Growth Is Nothing to Get Excited Over: The Washington Post went a bit overboard with its lead article reporting on the second quarter GDP data. ...

Actually the 4.0 growth figure reported for the second quarter implies the economy is ...


July 31, 2014, 11:03 am, 1308879

At MoneyWatch:

Behind the Fed's promise about short-term rates, by Mark Thoma: Can promises about the future have an effect today? That's the theory behind the Federal Reserve's statement following Wednesday's monetary policy meeting.

The Fed said it "currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near ...


July 31, 2014, 5:03 am, 1308693

July 30, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1308282

Tim Duy:

FOMC Statement, by Tim Duy: At the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, policymakers released yet another statement that only a FedWatcher could love. It is definitely an exercise in reading between the lines. The Fed cut another $10 billion from the asset purchase ...


July 30, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1308118

Gary Burtless:

Unemployment and the “Skills Mismatch” Story: Overblown and Unpersuasive, by Gary Burtless, Brookings: The jobless rate has dipped to 6.1 percent, and businesses are already complaining about a skills shortage. ... To an economist, the most accessible and persuasive evidence demonstrating a skills shortage should be found ...


July 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1308034

July 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1307833

July 29, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1307541

Simon Wren-Lewis:

If minimum wages, why not maximum wages?: I was in a gathering of academics the other day, and we were discussing minimum wages. The debate moved on to increasing inequality, and the difficulty of doing anything about it. I said why not have a maximum wage? To ...


July 29, 2014, 11:03 am, 1307216

I have a new column:

Why the Rich Should Call for Income Redistribution: After the craze over Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty First Century, nobody should be surprised to learn that inequality has been increasing over the last several decades. The question is what to do about it.