Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

July 3, 2015, 5:03 am, 1501023

July 2, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1500854

July 2, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1500698

Dean Baker:

Job Growth Slows in June: There is still little evidence of any acceleration of wage growth.

The Labor Department reported that the economy added 223,000 jobs in June. While this was in line with most economists' predictions, there were downward revisions of 60,000 to the data for the prior ...

July 2, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1500697

Chris Dillow:

... Two big facts, however, suggest that the link between child poverty and parental failure is weak. One comes from the DWP's own report:

Children  in  families where at least one adult was in work made up around 64 per cent of all children  in  low  income  [before ...

July 2, 2015, 5:03 am, 1500437

July 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1500114

Barry Eichengreen:

Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence: Since our last episode, the crisis in Greece has escalated further. Negotiations between the government and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, and restrictions on bank withdrawals will now follow.

The next step is for the ...

July 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1500113

Tim Duy:

Ahead of the Employment Report, by Tim Duy: A rare Thursday release of the employment report is on tap for tomorrow, and all eyes will be watching to see if it falls in line with the other, more optimistic US data of late. Indeed, it increasingly looks ...

July 1, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1500047

Gara Afonso and JoĂŁo Santos at the NY Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog:

What Do Bond Markets Think about “Too-Big-to-Fail” Since Dodd-Frank?: In our previous post, we concluded that, in rating agencies’ views, there is no clear consensus on whether the Dodd-Frank Act has eliminated “too-big-to-fail” ...

July 1, 2015, 5:03 am, 1499774

June 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1499365

I have a new column:

The Problem with Completely Free Markets: The Supreme Court’s decision last week saved Obamacare from the Republican’s latest attempt to get government out of health care. But if Republicans can find another way to attack the Affordable Care Act, they surely will. 

Healthcare is not, ...