Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


August 2, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1520550

In case you somehow missed that socioeconomic mobility is low in the US relative to many other countries, this is Anne Kim at Washington Monthly:

The Myth of Mobility: ... Surveys find that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe it’s “still possible to start out poor in this ...


August 2, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1520549

Paul Krugman follows up on Paul Romer's latest attack on "mathiness":

Freshwater’s Wrong Turn (Wonkish): Paul Romer has been writing a series of posts on the problem he calls “mathiness”, in which economists write down fairly hard-to-understand mathematical models accompanied by verbal claims that don’t actually match what’s going ...


August 2, 2015, 3:03 am, 1520271

August 1, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1520160

Brad DeLong:

Lehman Brothers Once Again…: Ah. The debate continues:

David Zaring: Did The Fed Fail To Save Lehman Brothers Because It Legally Couldn’t?: “The Fed’s lawyers said, after the fact, that no, they didn’t have the legal power to bail out Lehman…

…Peter says yes they did, Philip says ...


August 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1520115

Daniel Little:

Microfoundations 2.0?: The idea that hypotheses about social structures and forces require microfoundations has been around for at least 40 years. Maarten Janssen’s New Palgrave essay on microfoundations documents the history of the concept in economics; link. E. Roy Weintraub was among the first to emphasize ...


August 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1520114

Chris Dillow on the privatization of government services:

Creating markets: ... My point here is a simple one. Whether effective markets and private ownership can be created depends upon particular institutional and technical conditions.

This is, of course, a variant on Coase's famous point (pdf) - that ...


August 1, 2015, 3:03 am, 1519858

July 31, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1519767

I found this amusing:

There may be a complex market living in your gut: Conventional theories used by economists for the past 150 years to explain how societies buy, sell, and trade goods and services may be able to unlock mysteries about the behavior of microbial life on earth, ...


July 31, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1519698

More from Paul Romer:

Freshwater Feedback Part 1: “Everybody does it”: You can boil my claim about mathiness down to two assertions:

1. Economist N did X.
2. X is wrong because it undermines the scientific method.

#1 is a positive assertion, a statement about “what is …”#2 ...


July 31, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1519538

Brendan Mochoruk and Louise Sheiner of the Brookings Institution say that Fiscal Headwinds are Abating:

Tight fiscal policy by local, state, and federal governments held down economic growth for more than four years, but that restraint finally appears to be over...

This is a pretty good summary of the charts:

Fiscal ...