Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


October 31, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1361825

Tim Duy:

Another Kocherlakota Dissent, by Tim Duy: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota released a statement regarding his dissenting vote at this week's FOMC meeting. He does not share his colleagues faith that inflation will return to target anytime soon:

...In my assessment, the medium-term outlook ...


October 31, 2014, 5:03 am, 1361361

October 31, 2014, 5:03 am, 1361360

What are the lessons we should learn from Japan?:

Apologizing to Japan, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: For almost two decades, Japan has been held up as ... an object lesson on how not to run an advanced economy. After all, the island nation is the rising superpower ...


October 30, 2014, 11:03 am, 1360703

 Calculated Risk:

BEA: Real GDP increased at 3.5% Annualized Rate in Q3: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360476

October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360474

Tim Duy:

FOMC Recap, by Tim Duy: In broad terms, the FOMC meeting concluded as I had expected. To the extent there were any surprises, they were on the hawkish side. Or, I would say, hawkish mostly if you believed the events of ...


October 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1360475

In case you just can't get enough of Larry Summers talking about secular stagnation:

Reflections on the new 'Secular Stagnation hypothesis', by Larry Summers, Vox EU: The notion that Europe and other advanced economies are suffering secular stagnation is gaining traction. This column by Larry Summers – first published in ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360002

Brian Lucey:

Is (teaching) Economics doing more harm than good?: Every September thousands of students enter into universities and institutes of higher education. A large number of these take some economics courses. ... Economists also typically teach courses such as statistics, or introductory mathematics for social scientists. And yet, we have ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360000

"In a panel discussion moderated by Dean Rich Lyons, Laura Tyson, professor of business administration and economics at the Haas School of Business, and Emmanuel Saez, economics professor and head of the Center for Equitable Growth at UC Berkeley, focus on income inequality, ...


October 29, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1360001

Antonio Fatás:

Riksbank and ECB: reverse asymmetry: The Swedish central bank just lowered interest rates to zero because of deflation risks. This action comes after ignoring repeated warnings from Lars Svensson who had joined the bank in 2007 and later resigned because of disagreements with monetary policy decisions. What ...