Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

May 22, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1479127

The Obama administration is risking its credibility over the trade deal:

Trade and Trust, by Pau Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: One of the Obama administration’s underrated virtues is its intellectual honesty. Yes, Republicans see deception and sinister ulterior motives everywhere, but they’re just projecting. The truth is that, in ...

May 22, 2015, 5:03 am, 1478843

May 21, 2015, 3:03 am, 1478118

May 21, 2015, 3:03 am, 1478117

Steve Pincus at the New York Review of Books:

1776: The Revolt Against Austerity: Was the Declaration of Independence a powerful indictment of British austerity policies? Does America’s founding document need to be seen as part of an economic debate about the British Empire? ... Just as political debates ...

May 21, 2015, 3:03 am, 1478116

This, from Paul Krugman, is sort of a setup for the post below this one:

Conservatives and Keynes: ...the debate over business-cycle economics has always been a left-right thing. Specifically, the right has always been deeply hostile to the notion that expansionary fiscal policy can ever be ...

May 21, 2015, 3:03 am, 1478115

Another interview, this one with Sir Professor Charles Bean, former Deputy Governor at the Bank of England and past President of the Royal Economic Society. I thought this one went well.

May 20, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1477868

Before heading to one of my least favorite places, the dentist, here's one from the Liberty Street Economics Blog at the NY Fed:

Why Are Interest Rates So Low?, by Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, Matthew Cocci, Sara Shahanaghi, and Micah Smith: Second post in the series: In a recent ...

May 20, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1477751

Chris Dillow:

"Consistent with": ...Peter Dorman criticizes economists' habit of declaring a theory successful merely because it is "consistent with" the evidence. His point deserves emphasis. ...

This is a point which some defenders of inequality miss. Of course, you can devise theories which are "consistent with" ...

May 20, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1477750

From the blog Three-Toed Sloth by Cosma Shalizi (this also appeared in yesterday's links):

Any P-Value Distinguishable from Zero is Insufficiently Informative: After ten years of teaching statistics, I feel pretty confident in saying that one of the hardest points to get through to undergrads is what "statistically significant" actually ...

May 20, 2015, 3:03 am, 1477528