Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

July 29, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1658795

Hadn't heard this story before:

Why Does Economics Reject New Thinking?, by Rick McGahey: The Economist magazine is running a series on six big economic ideas that have shaped the field in recent decades, and they start with one of the best—George Akerlof’s 1970 “The Market ...

July 29, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1658708

Claudia Sahm

women and econ blogs: I enjoy reading econ blogs. ... So why are there so few female economic bloggers? ... Here are some of my hypotheses:

1. Women with opinions are not well received. I have heard this one but I am not so sure. My gateway to tweeting ...

July 29, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1658707

Branko Milanovic:

The forthcoming changes in capitalism?: Sometimes it’s useful to put symbolic dates on when a different era begins. The end of Thatcherism, it could be argued, came on July 10 in the then PM-candidate speech by Theresa May. It was perhaps appropriate that another woman, ...

July 29, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1658665

Republicans and the patriot act:

Who Loves America?, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...too many influential figures on the right are tribalists, not patriots.

We got a graphic demonstration of that reality after Michelle Obama’s speech, when she spoke of the wonder of watching her daughters play ...

July 29, 2016, 5:03 am, 1658496

July 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1658202

Dean Baker:

The Case for a Financial Transactions Tax, The Century Foundation: There has been considerable interest in financial transactions taxes (FTTs) in the United States and other wealthy countries in the years since the financial crisis. An FTT can be a way to both raise a large amount ...

July 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1658201

James Ledbetter:

What Does 'Regulatory Capture' Mean to Business and the Economy?: In recent months, the idea of "regulatory capture" ... has been enjoying its star turn. ... Earlier this year, the Government Accountability Office revealed that it had (at the urging of two members of Congress) ...

July 28, 2016, 5:03 am, 1658034

July 27, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1657779

Here's a link to the Fed's statement on its policy decision today:

FOMC statement - FRB

Policy is unchanged, sees improvements in the economy, says short-term risks have fallen.

July 27, 2016, 3:03 am, 1657538

Tim Duy:

July FOMC Preview on Bloomberg: How long can doves at the Federal Reserve stand their ground?

The fight within theU.S. central bankcontinues at this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as both hawks and doves jockey for dominant position.This battle will go to the doves; the Fed ...