Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

August 23, 2014, 3:03 am, 1323391

August 23, 2014, 3:03 am, 1323392

August 22, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1323153

David Keohane at FT Alphaville:

Buiter on helicopter drops: Some further, further reading on Friday — a new paper from Citi’s Willem Buiter, on why helicopter drops of money always work. From the abstract...:

Three conditions must be satisfied for helicopter money always to boost aggregate demand. First, there must ...

August 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1323078

Via Vox EU:

Minority mortgage market experiences leading up to and during the financial crisis, by Stephen L. Ross, Vox EU: The foreclosure crisis that followed the subprime crisis has had significant negative consequences for minority homeowners. This column reviews recent evidence in the racial and ethnic differences in ...

August 22, 2014, 7:03 am, 1322885

The inflation "obsession" continues despite the fact that there is little evidence that inflation is likely to be a problem. Why?:

Hawks Crying Wolf, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: According to a recent report in The Times, there is dissent at the Fed: “An increasingly vocal ...

August 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1322811

August 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1322347

At MoneyWatch

Who wins and loses from global trade?: Why are most economists more in favor of free trade than the general public?

One reason may be that the models economists use to evaluate the impact of global trade often overlook some significant ways it affects jobs, income and social ...

August 21, 2014, 7:03 am, 1322223

August 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1322163

August 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1322162

Posting the video mysteriously causes formatting problems for the blog, so took it down, replaced with link to video:

Chris Sims: Inflation, Fear of Inflation, and Public Debt