Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

April 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1462174

April 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1462053

Via Diane Coyle, a quote from Alfred Marshall’s Elements of the Economics of Industry:

...He wrote that earlier economists:

“Paid almost exclusive attention to the motives of individual action, But it must not be forgotten that economists, like all other students of social science, are ...

April 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1462051

This is not a subtweet:

This Is Not A Trade Agreement, by Paul Krugman: OK,Greg Mankiwhas me puzzled. Has he really read nothing about TPP? Is he completely unaware of the nature of the argument?

Personally, I’m alukewarm opponentof the deal, but I don’t see it as the ...

April 26, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1462052

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Mediamacro myth 6: 2013 recovery vindication: The idea that austerity during the first two years of the coalition government was vindicated by the 2013 recovery is so ludicrous that it is almost embarrassing to have to explain why. The half-truths in this case are so flimsy they ...

April 26, 2015, 5:03 am, 1461952

April 25, 2015, 5:03 am, 1461662

April 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1461434

John Cochrane weighs in on the discussion of unit roots:

Unit roots, redux: Arnold Kling's askblog and Roger Farmer have a little exchange on GDP and unit roots. My two cents here.

I did a lot of work on this topic a long time ago, in ...

April 24, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1461433

Interesting paper:

No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012, by Katharina Knoll, Moritz Schularic, and Thomas Steger: Abstract: How have house prices evolved over the long‐run? This paper presents annual house prices for 14 advanced economies since 1870. Based on extensive data collection, we show that real house ...

April 24, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1461282

Some bad ideas just won't die:

Zombies of 2016, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Last week,...Chris Christie ... gave a speech in which he tried to position himself as a tough-minded fiscal realist. In fact, however, his supposedly tough-minded policy idea was a classic zombie — ...

April 24, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1461281

Nick Bunker:

Monopsony and market power in the labor market: We’ve all heard the term “monopoly,” even if it’s just in the context of the board game. But a related term, or even another face of monopoly, is monopsony. A monopsony is when a firm is the sole purchaser ...