Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

May 30, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1640924

The current state of the race:

Feel the Math, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...So far, election commentary has been even worse than I imagined it would be..., bang-your-head-on-the-desk awful... I know this isn’t scientific, but based on conversations I’ve had recently, many people ... have been given a ...

May 30, 2016, 5:03 am, 1640825

May 29, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1640787

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk:

The War on Data, Calculated Risk: People have different priorities and different values. But we share the same data. Over the last few days, we've heard a presidential contender make comments completing ignoring the data. This should concern everyone - ignoring data leads to irresponsible ...

May 29, 2016, 3:03 am, 1640675

May 28, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1640636

On the road headed to my dad's 80th birthday party, so just a quick one for now. This is from VoxEU:

How bank networks amplify financial crises: Evidence from the Great Depression, by Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson: How financial networks propagate shocks and magnify recessions is of ...

May 28, 2016, 5:03 am, 1640586

May 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1640388

Trump's towering ignorance about how to run the U.S. economy:

Trump’s Delusions of Competence, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: In general, you shouldn’t pay much attention to polls at this point, especially with Republicans unifying around Donald Trump while Bernie Sanders hasn’t conceded the inevitable. Still, I was struck ...

May 27, 2016, 11:03 am, 1640387

At Microeconomic Insights:

Impoverished children with access to food stamps become healthier and wealthier adults: Adults who participated in the Food Stamp Program, renamed the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in 2008, as children are healthier and better off financially than poverty-stricken families who did not have access to ...

May 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1640308

May 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1640201

Tim Duy:

Powell, Data, by Tim Duy: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell kept the prospects for a near-term rate hike alive and well in a speech today:

For the near term, my baseline expectation is that our economy will continue on its path of growth at around 2 ...