Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355577

Everything you ever wanted to know about helicopter money:

Helicopter money, by Simon Wren-Lewis, Mainly Macro: Periodically articles appear advocating, or discussing, helicopter money. Here is a simple guide to this strange sounding concept. I go in descending order of importance, covering the essential ground in points 1-7, and ...


October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355579

I am not convinced that telling the kids to be good or else -- when there's a history of not doing much to enforce the request -- will work:

Will the big banks ever clean up their act?, by Mark Thoma: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley ...


October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355578

Chris Dillow:

Persuasion with statistics: Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve.

I doubt if ...


October 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1355278

October 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354844

Just in case you haven't had your fill of articles reviewing Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century:

The problem of riches, by Paul Segal: Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a very important book that is not really about capital, and is not really about the twenty-first century. It ...


October 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354842

This is related to yesterday's post "State 'Income Migration' Claims Are Deeply Flawed":

At the intersection of real estate and urban economics: Albert Saiz uses big data to understand real estate dynamics. As a professor in the Department of Urban Studies and Planning and director of MIT’s Center ...


October 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1354843

Richard Easterlin:

Why our happiness and satisfaction should replace GDP in policymaking, The Conversation: Since 1990, GDP per person in China has doubled and then redoubled. With average incomes multiplying fourfold in little more than two decades, one might expect many of the Chinese people to be ...


October 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1354524

October 20, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1354200

Differences in income taxe ratess across states have little impact on migration:

State “Income Migration” Claims Are Deeply Flawed, by Michael Mazerov, CBPP: Some proponents of state income tax cuts are making highly inaccurate claims about the impact of interstate migration patterns on states with relatively high income taxes ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353826