May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
New paper from Joseph Stiglitz:
Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy, by Joseph E. Stiglitz, NBER Working Paper No. 20517, September 2014 NBER: Macroeconomics has not done well in recent years: The standard models didn't predict the Great Recession; and even said it couldn't happen. After the bubble burst, ...
Why are economic forecasts wrong so often?: The Queen of England famously asked why economists failed to foresee the financial crisis in 2008. "Why did nobody notice it?" was her question when she visited the London School of Economics that year.
Economists' failure to accurately predict ...
The difference between the rich and the poor is larger than most people realize:
Our Invisible Rich, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: Half a century ago, a classic essay in The New Yorker titled “Our Invisible Poor” took on the then-prevalent myth that America was an affluent ...
The Fed would be crazy to worry about runaway wages: Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, the two biggest inflation hawks at the Federal Reserve, are retiring soon. But their pernicious ideas will stay alive at the Fed and elsewhere, threatening the middle class with another lost decade ...
Acemoglu, Autor, Dor, Hansen, and Price (I've noted this paper once or twice already in recent months, but thought it worthwhile to post their summary of te work):
Looking at Productivity as a State of Mind: Policy makers often fret about the pace of worker productivity. But each of us also frets about the pace of our own individual productivity.
Type the phrase “being more” into Google: The autocomplete function suggests “being more productive” as the ...
Paul Krugman reviews Jeff Madrick's book “Seven Bad Ideas: How Mainstream Economists Have Damaged America and the World”:
Seven Bad Ideas: The economics profession has not, to say the least, covered itself in glory these past six years. Hardly any economists predicted the 2008 crisis — and the handful ...