Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

February 1, 2015, 5:03 am, 1413966

January 31, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413802


Bad Tayloring: Since they aren’t currently able to demand a return to the gold standard — and maybe a ban on paper money? — Republicans are pushing to mandate that the Fed follow the so-called Taylor rule, which relates short-term interest rates to unemployment (and/or the output gap) and ...

January 31, 2015, 1:03 am, 1413630

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413287

Will Europe pass its latest test?:

Europe’s Greek Test, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ... Recent events in Greece pose a fundamental challenge for Europe: Can it get past the myths and the moralizing, and deal with reality in a way that respects the Continent’s core values? If ...

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413286

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk:

BEA: Real GDP increased at 2.6% Annualized Rate in Q4: From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price ...

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413288

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413284

Jeffrey Sparshott of the WSJ:

U.S. Workers Still Waiting for Wage Growth: U.S. employers aren’t yet getting squeezed by workers demanding higher wages.

The employment-cost index, a broad gauge of wage and benefit expenditures, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in the fourth quarter last year, the Labor Department ...

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413285

Catherine Rampell:

Audit the Fed? Not so fast: Not this again.

Calls to “Audit the Fed” are back. And just as before, they are extraordinarily dangerous to the health of the U.S. economy.

First, a little background. Conspiracy theories about the Federal Reserve’s wacky technical mumbo-jumbo voodoo have a long populist ...

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413283

Joe Stiglitz:

Don't Trade Away Our Health: A secretive group met behind closed doors in New York this week. What they decided may lead to higher drug prices for you and hundreds of millions around the world.

Representatives from the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries convened to ...

January 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1412441

[Very busy day today, so for now just three quick excerpts.]

Tim Johnson:

A moral case for bank money: Finance is a skeleton that supports the development of a healthy society, not a utility that plumbs the economy together. The justification for this observation is historical. Richard Seaford has