Technical Problems 3/9/15
The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
Why do developing countries pursue destabilizing, procyclical fiscal policy? This is from Guillermo Vuletin and Leopoldo Avellan at Brookings:
Fiscal policy procyclicality and output forecast errors: Bad luck or bad decisions?: It is well-known that government spending has historically been procyclical in the developing world (Tornell and Lane, 1999; ...
Gloomy European Economist, Francesco Saraceno:
The Confidence Witch: ...The confidence fairy seems to have turned into a confidence witch. One more victim of the crisis. But this one will not be missed.
It is not shameful to change opinion. Rather the contrary, it is a sign of intellectual courage. Two ...
I've made this point several times myself, i.e. that social insurance can promote entrepreneurship, but it's worth making again:
Welfare Makes America More Entrepreneurial: ... Pundits and researchers often note the negative correlation between government spending and entrepreneurship, both within the U.S. and internationally, and conclude ...
Very long travel day today, so just a few quick posts before heading to the airport. Will post more as I can.
Larry Ball tells the Fed to be very patient when it comes to satisfying its mandate to pursue full employment:
Fed Should Push Unemployment Well Below 5%, Paper Says: The Federal Reserve should hold short-term interest rates near zero long enough to drive unemployment well below 5%, even if ...
Audit the Fed?:
The "Audit" the Fed Crowd, by David Andolfatto: Alex Pollock says that It's High Time to "Audit" the Federal Reserve. ...just the other day, Senator Rand Paul, a leader in "Audit-the-Fed" movement (a significant step down from his father's "End-the-Fed" movement) was making statements like
Paul Krugman continues the discussion on the use of the Keynesian model:
Today Mark includes a link to one of his own columns, a characteristically polite and cool-headed ...