May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
The current state of the race:
Feel the Math, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: ...So far, election commentary has been even worse than I imagined it would be..., bang-your-head-on-the-desk awful... I know this isn’t scientific, but based on conversations I’ve had recently, many people ... have been given a ...
Bill McBride at Calculated Risk:
The War on Data, Calculated Risk: People have different priorities and different values. But we share the same data. Over the last few days, we've heard a presidential contender make comments completing ignoring the data. This should concern everyone - ignoring data leads to irresponsible ...
On the road headed to my dad's 80th birthday party, so just a quick one for now. This is from VoxEU:
How bank networks amplify financial crises: Evidence from the Great Depression, by Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson: How financial networks propagate shocks and magnify recessions is of ...
Trump's towering ignorance about how to run the U.S. economy:
Trump’s Delusions of Competence, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: In general, you shouldn’t pay much attention to polls at this point, especially with Republicans unifying around Donald Trump while Bernie Sanders hasn’t conceded the inevitable. Still, I was struck ...
At Microeconomic Insights:
Impoverished children with access to food stamps become healthier and wealthier adults: Adults who participated in the Food Stamp Program, renamed the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in 2008, as children are healthier and better off financially than poverty-stricken families who did not have access to ...
For the near term, my baseline expectation is that our economy will continue on its path of growth at around 2 ...