January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
Tapering is Sooo 2013, by Tim Duy: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley had a sit down with the Wall Street Journal in which he provides some key insights into Fed thinking. First, regarding the tepid pace of data, it's the weather:
Mr. Dudley ...
A nice summary of some research that I've highlighted before:
Redistribution, inequality, and sustainable growth: Reconsidering the evidence, by Jonathan D Ostry, Andrew Berg, and Charalambos Tsangarides, Vox EU: Rising income inequality looms high on the global policy agenda, reflecting not only fears of its pernicious social and political ...
I have argued again and again that we aren't concerned enough about the concentration of economic power:
Did Robert Bork Understate the Competitive Impact of Mergers? Evidence from Consummated Mergers, by Orley C. Ashenfelter, Daniel Hosken, and Matthew C. Weinberg, NBER: In The Antitrust Paradox, Robert Bork viewed most mergers ...
Speaking of anti-competitive behavior, here's Cory Doctorow:
Why DRM'ed coffee-pods may be just the awful stupidity we need, by Cory Doctorow: I've been thinking about the news that Keurig has added "DRM" to its pod coffee-makers since the story first started doing the rounds a couple ...
A Lackluster Start to the New Year, by Tim Duy: Incoming data has tended to disappoint. While weather impacts are taking part of the blame, I tend to think that part of the blame should fall on overly optimistic interpretations of data patterns at the end of ...
Antonio Fatas looks at the relationship between growth and intereest rates:
Global interest rates and growth (r-g): The difference between interest rate and growth rates appears as an important parameter in many macroeconomic models. It is also a key variable to assess the sustainability of public finances: higher interest ...
What do you think of Tyler Cowen's comments on the Ryan poverty report?
The new Paul Ryan report on poverty and safety net programs: I read much of the document last night, here are a few comments...
I found myself in agreement with much of what he says.
The Real Poverty Trap: Earlier I noted that the new Ryan poverty report makes some big claims about the poverty trap, and cites a lot of research â€” but the research doesnâ€™t actually support the claims. It occurs to me, however, that the whole Ryan ...