Database Maintenance 7/4/15
Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
In case you somehow missed that socioeconomic mobility is low in the US relative to many other countries, this is Anne Kim at Washington Monthly:
Paul Krugman follows up on Paul Romer's latest attack on "mathiness":
Freshwater’s Wrong Turn (Wonkish): Paul Romer has been writing a series of posts on the problem he calls “mathiness”, in which economists write down fairly hard-to-understand mathematical models accompanied by verbal claims that don’t actually match what’s going ...
Lehman Brothers Once Again…: Ah. The debate continues:
David Zaring: Did The Fed Fail To Save Lehman Brothers Because It Legally Couldn’t?: “The Fed’s lawyers said, after the fact, that no, they didn’t have the legal power to bail out Lehman…
…Peter says yes they did, Philip says ...
Microfoundations 2.0?: The idea that hypotheses about social structures and forces require microfoundations has been around for at least 40 years. Maarten Janssen’s New Palgrave essay on microfoundations documents the history of the concept in economics; link. E. Roy Weintraub was among the first to emphasize ...
Chris Dillow on the privatization of government services:
This is, of course, a variant on Coase's famous point (pdf) - that ...
I found this amusing:
There may be a complex market living in your gut: Conventional theories used by economists for the past 150 years to explain how societies buy, sell, and trade goods and services may be able to unlock mysteries about the behavior of microbial life on earth, ...
More from Paul Romer:
Freshwater Feedback Part 1: “Everybody does it”: You can boil my claim about mathiness down to two assertions:
1. Economist N did X.
2. X is wrong because it undermines the scientific method.
#1 is a positive assertion, a statement about “what is …”#2 ...
Brendan Mochoruk and Louise Sheiner of the Brookings Institution say that Fiscal Headwinds are Abating:
Tight fiscal policy by local, state, and federal governments held down economic growth for more than four years, but that restraint finally appears to be over...
This is a pretty good summary of the charts: