Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


December 4, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699578

December 3, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699457

December 2, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1699333

Be careful what you vote for:

Seduced and Betrayed by Donald Trump, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Donald Trump won the Electoral College (though not the popular vote) on the strength of overwhelming support from working-class whites, who feel left behind by a changing economy and society. And they’re ...


December 2, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1699334

Dean Baker:

Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.6 Percent in November, a New Low for Recovery: The unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November, almost equal to the pre-recession lows in 2007. However, the sharp decline was partly due to people leaving the labor force, the employment to-population ratio (EPOP) ...


December 2, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1699332

Brad DeLong:

I think I have to change my mind: Back when Card and Krueger first suggested that there was substantial effective monopsony power in the low-wage labor market and thus that there would be no disemployment effect from (modest) increases in the minimum wage to make it binding, ...


December 2, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699144

December 1, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1698995

Larry Summers:

The Future of Aid for Health: Yesterday, I gave a keynote speech at the World Innovation Summit for Health on “The Future of Aid for Health”. When I agreed to give the speech, which built on the work of a Commission I chaired ...


December 1, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1698993

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Some concrete proposals for economists and the media: You can now listen to my SPERI/New Statesman prize lecture in full here, or even watch it all here. The talk looks at recent UK history, involving austerity and Brexit, to argue that there are serious ...


December 1, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1698994

Alexander Naumov at Bank Underground.

Global growth: The *old*normal?: “Too slow for too long”, referring to global GDP growth, was the title of a recent IMF publication. But is world economic growth really that slow? Looking at the data over the past several ...


December 1, 2016, 5:03 am, 1698814