Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


February 5, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1605809

Tim Duy:

Solid Jobs Report Keeps Fed In Play, by Tim Duy: Just when you think it's safe to jump in the water, reality strikes. While I still think that the Fed passes in March, the solid jobs report is just what is takes to keep the Fed in ...


February 5, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1605766

Dean Baker:

Job Growth Slows in January, Unemployment Falls to 4.9 Percent, by Dean Baker: The Labor Department reported the economy added 151,000 jobs in January, in line with some economists' expectations. There were largely offsetting revisions to the prior two months data leaving the average change over the last ...


February 5, 2016, 11:03 am, 1605709

The left's attack on Obamacare could be harmful:

Who Hates Obamacare?, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...the Affordable Care Act is already doing enormous good. ... Why, then, do we hear not just conservatives but also many progressives trashing President Obama’s biggest policy achievement?

Part of the answer is ...


February 5, 2016, 3:03 am, 1605584

February 4, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1605416

Narayana Kocherlakota:

Dovish Actions Require Dovish Talk (To Be Effective): The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has bought a lot of assets and kept interest rates extraordinarily low for the past eight years.  Yet, all of this stimulus has accomplished surprisingly little (for example, inflation and inflation expectations remain ...


February 4, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1605326

Robert Barro on China:

China’s growth prospects: ...it is not possible for the per capita growth rate to exceed 5% per year for very much longer.

China can be viewed as a convergence success story, in the sense that the strong economic growth over a sustained period led to a level ...


February 4, 2016, 3:03 am, 1605171

February 4, 2016, 3:03 am, 1605170

Tim Duy:

Jobs Day, by Tim Duy: The jobs report for January is upon us. I would like to say this one will receive special attention but they all receive special attention. Consensus forecast is for nonfarm payrolls to gain 188k, with a range of 170k-215k, while unemployment holds ...


February 3, 2016, 3:03 am, 1604761

Tim Duy:

Resisting Change?, by Tim Duy: Monday Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer offered up a speech and lengthy discussion on recent monetary policy. It was both illuminating and frustrating at once. Although his confidence is fading, I also sense that he is resisting change. Fischer begins ...


February 3, 2016, 3:03 am, 1604760

The beginning of a relatively long discussion:

The costs of inequality: When a fair shake isn’t, by Alvin Powell, Harvard Staff Writer: It’s a seemingly nondescript chart, buried in a Harvard Business School (HBS) professor’s academic paper.

A rectangle, divided into parts, depicts U.S. wealth for each fifth ...