Economics Roundtable

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).

Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.

November Payroll Employment

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

Policymakers are Too Anxious to Reverse Course
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 4, 2012, 3:03 pm, 948254

I am worried that policymakers are too anxious to reverse course. That is, despite recent communications suggesting that policy will remain on hold or even be eased further, I'm worried that the Fed will increase interest rates too soon. In the past, any sign of green shoots has brought ...

Links for 2012-02-04
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 4, 2012, 5:04 am, 948222
Still losing the unemployment war - Mohamed A. El-Erian The end of lone-wolf capitalism - The Washington Post Messages from the January Employment Release - Econbrowser Reflections on Twenty Years of Policy Innovation - Robert Stavins Local Governments Still ...

Fed Watch: Good News on Employment
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 5:03 pm, 948179

Tim Duy:

Good News on Employment, by Tim Duy: With only a minimal drag from the government sector, the February employment report shined on the back of a solid gain in private sector hiring:

The last couple ...

Dean Baker: Strong Job Growth
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 3:03 pm, 948155

With all the cheering about the jobs report this morning showing 243,000 jobs created last month and a fall in the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, I thought it might be useful to present a contrary voice (especially since I'm at a conference and don't have time to do ...

NBER EF&G Research Meeting
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 1:03 pm, 948128

I am here today:

NBER EF&G Research Meeting
Nir Jaimovich and Guido Lorenzoni, Organizers
February 3, 2012
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

PROGRAM

8:30 am Continental Breakfast

9:00 am Gary Gorton, Yale University Guillermo Ordonez, Yale University Collateral Crises Discussant:  Veronica Guerrieri, University ...

Paul Krugman: Romney Isn’t Concerned
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 7:03 am, 948040

Who does Romney care about?:

Romney Isn’t Concerned, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...Earlier this week, Mr. Romney told a startled CNN interviewer, “I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.”

Faced with criticism, the candidate has claimed that he didn’t mean ...

Links for 2012-02-03
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 5:04 am, 948031
S.E.C. Is Avoiding Tough Sanctions for Large Banks - NYTimes.com I Still Don’t Get Why the ECB Hiked Rates - Rebecca Wilder Which Romney Is Romney? - Brad DeLong Sociology of knowledge: Berger - Dan Little Chris Giles on UK Austerity - mainly macro

Fed Watch: How This Gets Even Uglier
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 3, 2012, 5:04 am, 948030

Tim Duy:

How This Gets Even Uglier, by Tim Duy: At this risk of beating a dead horse, I reiterate that I don't see how the European situation comes to a happy conclusion. Conditions in Greece appear to be deteriorating rapidly. Via Athens News, ...

How Did the Fed Get Things So Wrong?
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 2, 2012, 7:03 pm, 947992

[Busy day today -- teaching then travel -- so another quick "hit and run" post.]

A column from a couple of weeks ago:

How Did the Fed Get Things So Wrong?, by Mark Thoma: The public’s faith in the Fed’s ability to protect the economy from economic problems has ...

"On Wilson’s Muddled Defense of the Top 1 Percent"
by Mark Thoma of Economist's View
February 2, 2012, 3:03 pm, 947946

Larry Mishel reacts to a recent commentary in the Washington Post on income inequality that "belittles the need to tax the rich more":

On Wilson’s muddled defense of the top 1%, by Larry Mishel: Last week, the Washington Post published an essay by James Q. ...