Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

September 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1337292

From the Minneapolis Fed:

Interview with Michael Woodford: Columbia University economist on Fed mandates, effective forward guidance and cognitive limits in human decision making.

September 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1337291

More on the new work from William Gale and Andrew Samwick (I've posted on this before, but given the strength of beliefs about tax cuts, it seems worthwhile to highlight it again):

Tax Cuts Can Do More Harm Than Good: Tax cuts are the one guaranteed path to prosperity. ...

September 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1337290

At MoneyWatch:

What's so bad about monopoly power?: Google (GOOG) has been negotiating with European regulatory authorities since 2010 in an attempt to settle an antitrust case concerning its search engine, and its third attempt to settle the case has been rejected. Google may also face ...

September 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1337289

[Travel day -- heading south for the winter -- so just a few quick ones before hitting the road.]

Tim Taylor:

National Attitudes on International Trade: Americans, who are sometimes caricatured as being especially supportive of free trade, are actually among those most opposed. People from the low-income countries of ...

September 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1336988

September 17, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1336622

Tim Taylor:

Empathy for the Poor: A Meditation: The U.S. Census Bureau has just published its annual report with estimates of the U.S. poverty rate, which was 14.5% in 2013, down a touch from 15.0% in 2012. It's easy to have sympathy for those with low incomes. ...

September 17, 2014, 5:03 am, 1336254

September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335868

Peter Temin and David Vines have a new book:

Making the case for Keynes, by Peter Dizikes, MIT News Office: In 1919, when the victors of World War I were concluding their settlement against Germany — in the form of the Treaty of Versailles — one of the leading ...

September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335867

I have a new column:

Rethinking New Economic Thinking: Efforts such as Rethinking Economics and The Institute for New Economic Thinking are noteworthy attempts to, as INET says, “broaden and accelerate the development of new economic thinking that can lead to solutions for the great challenges of the 21st ...

September 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1335574