Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)

December 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1392738

December 20, 2014, 3:03 am, 1392500

December 19, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1392312

Is the financial industry is winning the war over regulation?:

Volcker lambasts Wall Street lobbying, FT: Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman, has lambasted the "eternal lobbying" of Wall Street after regulators granted the industry more time to comply with a rule designed to prevent them from owning ...

December 19, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1392240

Joshua Gans:

Digitized Products: How about just giving up?: In a very interesting talk, music producer, Steve Albini, reviewed the impact of the internet on the music industry’s woes. ...

From my part, I believe the very concept of exclusive intellectual property with respect to recorded music ...

December 19, 2014, 3:03 am, 1391883

December 19, 2014, 3:03 am, 1391882

The Russian economy is in trouble:

Putin’s Bubble Bursts, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: If you’re the type who finds macho posturing impressive, Vladimir Putin is your kind of guy. Sure enough, many American conservatives seem to have an embarrassing crush on the swaggering strongman. “That is what ...

December 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1391630

Via Real Time Economics at the WSJ:

No Sign Yet of Labor Cost Inflation in U.S. or U.K., by Paul Hannon: Despite falling unemployment rates, there are few signs that rising wages will soon start to push inflation higher in either the U.S. or the U.K., where central banks ...

December 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1391631

Noah Smith:

Maybe There's No Such Thing as a Business Cycle: ...The word “cycle” conjures up images of waves and seasons, but the business cycle isn’t a regular cycle like that (if it were, it would be easy to predict the next recession). Economists actually think that recessions and ...

December 18, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1391545

Arnold Packer and Jeff Madrick respond to Alan Blinder in the NYRB, and he replies:

‘What’s the Matter with Economics?’: An Exchange: In response to: What’s the Matter with Economics? from the December 18, 2014 issue ...

To the Editors:

Alan Blinder is one of the finest mainstream ...

December 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1391271