Technical Problems 3/9/15
The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)
Job Growth Slows in June: There is still little evidence of any acceleration of wage growth.
The Labor Department reported that the economy added 223,000 jobs in June. While this was in line with most economists' predictions, there were downward revisions of 60,000 to the data for the prior ...
... Two big facts, however, suggest that the link between child poverty and parental failure is weak. One comes from the DWP's own report:
Children in families where at least one adult was in work made up around 64 per cent of all children in low income [before ...
Path to Grexit tragedy paved by political incompetence: Since our last episode, the crisis in Greece has escalated further. Negotiations between the government and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, and restrictions on bank withdrawals will now follow.
The next step is for the ...
Ahead of the Employment Report, by Tim Duy: A rare Thursday release of the employment report is on tap for tomorrow, and all eyes will be watching to see if it falls in line with the other, more optimistic US data of late. Indeed, it increasingly looks ...
Gara Afonso and JoĂŁo Santos at the NY Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog:
What Do Bond Markets Think about â€śToo-Big-to-Failâ€ť Since Dodd-Frank?: In our previous post, we concluded that, in rating agenciesâ€™ views, there is no clear consensus on whether the Dodd-Frank Act has eliminated â€śtoo-big-to-failâ€ť ...
I have a new column:
The Problem with Completely Free Markets: The Supreme Courtâ€™s decision last week saved Obamacare from the Republicanâ€™s latest attempt to get government out of health care. But if Republicans can find another way to attack the Affordable Care Act, they surely will.
Healthcare is not, ...