Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Economist’s View (Mark Thoma)


October 24, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357202

Simon Wren-Lewis:

Redistribution between generations: I ought to start a series on common macroeconomic misunderstandings. (I do not watch zombie films.) ... Here is one that crops up fairly regularly - that government debt does not involve redistribution between generations. The misunderstanding here is obvious once you see that ...


October 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356897

October 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356896

"What's a plutocrat to do?":

Plutocrats Against Democracy, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times: ...The ... political right has always been uncomfortable with democracy..., there is always an undercurrent of fear that the great unwashed will vote in left-wingers who will tax the rich, hand out largess to the ...


October 23, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1356527


October 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1356452

After A Few Comments on QE, Bill McBride ends with:

...My view is QE was not a panacea, but overall QE was a success. I was a frequent critic of the Fed prior to the financial crisis - I think the Fed was almost anti-regulation during the housing bubble, and ...


October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356376

October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356375

This was in today's links (which were posted later than usual):

Does Raising the Minimum Wage Hurt Employment? Evidence fromChina, by Prakash Loungani, iMFDirect: ...China accounts for nearly 25 percent of the global labor force...

Our study is the first to use data on minimum wage changes for over 2400 ...


October 23, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1356374

Jordi Galí:

The Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus, by Jordi Galí, September 2014: Abstract I analyze the effects of an increase in government purchases financed entirely through seignorage, in both a classical and a New Keynesian framework, and compare them with those resulting from a more conventional debt-financed stimulus. ...


October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355578

Chris Dillow:

Persuasion with statistics: Mark Thoma's point that apparently strong econometric results are often the product of specification mining prompts Lars Syll to remind us that eminent economists have long been wary of what econometrics can achieve.

I doubt if ...


October 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1355577

Everything you ever wanted to know about helicopter money:

Helicopter money, by Simon Wren-Lewis, Mainly Macro: Periodically articles appear advocating, or discussing, helicopter money. Here is a simple guide to this strange sounding concept. I go in descending order of importance, covering the essential ground in points 1-7, and ...