Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

July 3, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1501195
By request, here is an update on an earlier post through the June employment report.

NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open ...

July 3, 2015, 9:03 am, 1501120
It feels like a Saturday ...

The key report this coming week is the May Trade Deficit on Tuesday, and the June ISM non-manufacturing index on Monday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Friday on the U.S. Economic Outlook.

----- Monday, July 6th -----
10:00 AM ET: ...

July 2, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1500937
From STR: US hotel results for week ending 27 June

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 21-27 June 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 1.1 percent to 76.9 ...

July 2, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1500936
A quick graph of unemployment claims ... Note: Starting with this release, the DOL is including a table of unadjusted State-level "advance"claims.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 281,000, an increase of 10,000 from the ...

July 2, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1500770
Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was unchanged in Q2 2015, compared to Q1, at 4.2% - and also the same as in Q2 2014. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009.

A few comments from Reis Senior Economist and Director of Research ...

July 2, 2015, 11:03 am, 1500617
Earlier: June Employment Report: 223,000 Jobs, 5.3% Unemployment Rate

This was a decent employment report with 223,000 jobs added, although April and May were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs.

Unfortunately wage growth is still weak, from the BLS: "In June, average hourly earnings for all ...

July 2, 2015, 9:03 am, 1500533
From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in June, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing. ...

July 1, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1500320
Here is the employment preview I posted earlier: Preview: Employment Report for June

Goldman Sachs is forecasting:

We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 220k in June, a bit below consensus expectations. Labor market indicators were mixed in June, suggesting a print roughly in line with the 217k monthly ...

July 1, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1500263
Bold prediction: Tomorrow will feel like a Friday!

On Thursday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 230,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June (with a range of estimates between 202,000 ...

July 1, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1500112
Reis released their Q2 2015 Office Vacancy survey this morning. Reis reported that the office vacancy rate was unchanged compared to Q1 at 16.6%. This is down from 16.9% in Q2 2014, and down from the cycle peak of 17.6%.

From Reis:

The national vacancy rate remained unchanged ...