Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”


August 26, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1668023
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2016.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2016. During the month, the list declined ...


August 26, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1667985
The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Thursday, Sept 1st.

Note: There were 26 selling days in August, the same as in August 2015.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Weaken in August

A WardsAuto forecast calls for August U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach ...


August 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1667901
CR Note: When the New and Existing home sales reports were released this week, I was out of town and didn't post any graphs. Here are a few graphs and comments on the reports.

The new home sales report for July was very strong at 654,000on a seasonally ...


August 26, 2016, 11:03 am, 1667855
From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future. Excerpt:

Looking ahead, the FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years. Based on ...


August 26, 2016, 9:03 am, 1667817
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Second Estimate)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 ...


August 25, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1667707
Yellen time updated (ht SBG)

CR Note: It was an awesome trip, but it is great to be home. I'll be posting some catch-up graphs and comments on new and existing home sales tomorrow. Best to All.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, ...


August 25, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1667686
CR Note: I'm back from NYC. Had a great time!

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 261,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 264,000, ...


August 24, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1667358
As a reminder: NAR Existing Home Sales Report vs. Tom Lawler's LEHC Projection from Last Week

Existing Home Sales (SAAR): NAR, 5.39 million; LEHC, 5.41 million; “Consensus”, 5.52 million

Inventory of EHS for Sale: NAR, 2.13 million; LEHC, 2.14 million.

YOY % ...


August 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1667194
CR Note: I'm in NYC and I will post graphs when I return home.

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Lose Steam in July

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of ...


August 24, 2016, 7:03 am, 1667125
CR Note: I'm in NYC, graphs will be posted next week.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 2.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ...