Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 4/30/18

The Economics Roundtable is back. The technical problem that has limited the set of blogs has been resolved. The RSS feed is, however, still not working.

Flushing caches will likely cause some old posts to show up for a day or two.


Employment as a Percentage of Population

The graph below shows employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”


December 16, 2018, 8:35 am, 1929724
From SacRealtor.org: November 2018 Statistics – Sacramento Housing Market – Single Family Homes, Median sales price increases, sales volume drops

November closed with 1,304 sales, a 9.3% decrease from the 1,413 sales of September. Compared to the same month last year (1,396), the current figure is down 6.6%. Of ...


December 15, 2018, 8:36 am, 1929611
The key economic reports this week are November Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week.

Also, the FOMC meets this week ...


December 14, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1929564
A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on December 14, 2018:

• Oil rigs fell, -4 to 873

• Horizontal oil rigs also declined, -4 to 767

• Breakeven to add rigs fell to around $75 WTI compared to $51.20 WTI on the screen ...


December 14, 2018, 6:06 pm, 1929550
By request, here is an update to the chart showing market performance under Presidents Trump and Obama.

Note: I don't think the stock market is a great measure of policy performance, but some people do - and I'm having a little fun with them.

There are some observers ...


December 14, 2018, 12:36 pm, 1929453
From Merrill Lynch:

Core retail sales popped 0.9% mom in Nov with net upward revisions. Industrial production climbed 0.6% driven by utilities. These data boosted 4Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.9% qoq saar. [Dec 14 estimate].
emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The ...


December 14, 2018, 9:25 am, 1929377
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November after moving down 0.2 percent in October; the index for October was previously reported to have edged up 0.1 percent. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged, the output of mining increased 1.7 percent, and ...


December 14, 2018, 9:25 am, 1929376
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in November after moving down 0.2 percent in October; the index for October was previously reported to have edged up 0.1 percent. In November, manufacturing production was unchanged, the output of mining increased 1.7 percent, and ...


December 14, 2018, 9:05 am, 1929357
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2 percent from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from November 2017.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and ...


December 13, 2018, 8:36 pm, 1929263
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in retail sales.

• At 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, ...


December 13, 2018, 2:36 pm, 1929176
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports ...