Economics Roundtable

Calculated Risk

Read the Bill McBride interview.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


June Payroll Employment

The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Focus on the Problem

U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).


Looking Up At 2001

In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.


Click on the chart for a larger version.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”


June 19, 2013, 11:03 am, 1109974
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Strong Rebound for Architecture Billings Index

Following the first reversal into negative territory in ten months in April, the Architecture Billings Index has bounced back in May. As a leading ...


June 19, 2013, 9:03 am, 1109899
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 ...


June 18, 2013, 11:03 pm, 1109750
More support for Dr. Janet Yellen to replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke next January. I supported Yellen in 2009, and I think she would be an excellent choice.

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage ...


June 18, 2013, 7:03 pm, 1109683
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in May. 

Look at the two columns in the table for Total "Distressed" Share. In almost every area that has reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed ...


June 18, 2013, 3:03 pm, 1109547
A few comments:

• Overall the housing starts report was a little disappointing with total starts at a 914 thousand rate on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) in May. This was below the consensus forecast of 950 thousand SAAR.

• However starts are up significantly from ...


June 18, 2013, 1:03 pm, 1109449
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) during the month. The median ...


June 18, 2013, 11:03 am, 1109374
The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2013 Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios yesterday. I used to track this quarterly back in 2005 and 2006 to point out that households were taking on excessive financial obligations.

These ratios show the percent of disposable personal income (DPI) dedicated ...


June 18, 2013, 9:03 am, 1109270
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000. This is 6.8 percent above the revised April estimate of 856,000 and is 28.6 percent above the May 2012 rate of 711,000.

Single-family housing starts ...


June 17, 2013, 11:03 pm, 1109122
Earlier today, Robin Harding at the Financial Times released a market moving story of the Fed: Fed likely to signal tapering move is close

Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85bn-a-month in asset purchases when he holds ...


June 17, 2013, 7:03 pm, 1109058
In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

From FNC: FNC Index: Rise in Home Prices Picks up in April

The latest FNC Residential Price Index™ (RPI) shows that U.S. home prices continue to rise ...