Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

November 22, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376356
Update: I've added the MBAand Goldman Sachs forecasts. Also Wells Fargo updated their forecast (slight changes).

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like most analysts are optimistic for 2015.

Here is a summary of ...

November 22, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1376272
This will be a short, but busy holiday week. The key reports this week arethe second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the November Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.

November 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1376200
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 21, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC provided an update on its latest enforcement action activity that resulted in several removals ...

November 21, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376032
The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 2nd. Sales in October were at 16.35 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in November might be at or above 17 million SAAR.

Note: There were 25 selling days in November ...

November 21, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1375887
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (5.6 billion vehicle miles) for September 2014 as compared with September 2013.

Travel for the month is estimated to be 246.6 billion vehicle miles

Cumulative Travel for 2014 changed by 0.7% (16.7 ...

November 21, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1375812
From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Expanded Further

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the November Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District ...

November 21, 2014, 11:03 am, 1375736
From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in October. Thirty-four states and the District of Columbia had unemployment rate decreases from September, 5 states had increases, and 11 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of ...

November 21, 2014, 9:03 am, 1375646
According to Black Knight's First Look report for October, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in October compared to September, and declined by 12% year-over-year. Mortgage delinquencies are at the lowest level since November 2007.

Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in October ...

November 20, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1375353
A few excerpts from a research piece on wages by economist Nathan Harris at Merrill Lynch:

After the deep freeze last winter, the labor market has steadily recovered over the last 10 months. Payrolls have averaged about 240,000 and the unemployment rate has dropped mainly for “good reasons”—because of ...

November 20, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1375291
In addition to housing starts for October, the Census Bureau also released the Q3 "Started and Completed by Purpose of Construction" report yesterday.

It is important to remember that we can't directly compare single family housing starts to new home sales. For starts of single family structures, ...