Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

January 31, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1413823
The key report this week is the January employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the January ISM manufacturing index on Monday, January vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the December Trade Deficit on Thursday.

----- Monday, February 2nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal ...

January 31, 2015, 9:03 am, 1413725
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 30, 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As expected, the FDIC released an update on its enforcement action activities through December 2014 that ...

January 30, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1413524
I think restaurants are happy with lower gasoline prices (except, I hear, McDonald's) ...

Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Finished the Year on a Positive Note

Driven by positive sales and traffic and an uptick in capital expenditures, ...

January 30, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1413378
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in December to 1.88%, down from 1.91% in November. Freddie's rate is down from 2.39% in December 2013, and the rate in December was the lowest level since December 2008. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 ...

January 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1413282
There are legitimate concerns about a strong dollar, and weak economic activity overseas, impacting U.S. exports and GDP growth. However, overall, the Q4 GDP report was solid.

The key numbers are: 1) PCE increased at a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (the two month method nails it ...

January 30, 2015, 11:03 am, 1413191

Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 98.1, down slightly from the preliminary estimate of 98.2, ...

January 30, 2015, 9:03 am, 1413123
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2014 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter ...

January 29, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1412744
From the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3.5 percent on January 27, unchanged from January 21.

From Nomura:

Incoming data suggest that the economy grew at a slower pace in Q4 than ...

January 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1412610
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for November were released Tuesday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Expect Recent Trend of Sub-5% Annual ...

January 29, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1412440
From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three ...