Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

June 26, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1648632
From Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn: After the Brexit Shock

Following the UK referendum, we have downgraded our global growth forecast, sharply in the UK and more modestly elsewhere. Increased uncertainty and deteriorating terms of trade are likely to subtract a cumulative 2¾% from UK ...

June 26, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648598
Two years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group.

The Census Bureau has just released the population estimates for 2015, and I've updated the table from the previous post (replacing 2013 with 2015 data).

The table ...

June 25, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648432
The key economic reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP,  May personal income and outlays, June vehicle sales, the June ISM manufacturing, and Case-Shiller House prices.

----- Monday, June 27th -----
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.

----- Tuesday, June ...

June 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1648400
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2016.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2016. During the month, the list fell ...

June 24, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1648358
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Single Best Day For Mortgage Rates in More Than a Year

From yesterday's most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote of 3.625%, we're now easily down to 3.5% for most lenders. A few of the most aggressive lenders are already down to ...

June 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1648320
From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in eight, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 60. Over ...

June 24, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1648230
The automakers will report June vehicle sales on Friday, July 1st.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in June, up from 25 in June 2015.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: June Sales to Reach 11-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.57 million light ...

June 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1648186
From the Federal Reserve:

The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union. The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines ...

June 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1648185
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June was at 93.5, down from the preliminary reading of 94.3, and down from 94.7 in May:

"Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late June due to rising concerns about prospects for the national economy. While no recession ...

June 23, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1648047
To track the Brexit vote, here is a great spreadsheet updated frequently from @britainelects

• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer ...