Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

November 28, 2015, 11:03 am, 1583001
The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include November vehicle sales, the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the October trade deficit.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the Economic Outlook.

----- Monday, November 30th -----

November 27, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1582919
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for November 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for November 2015. During the month, the list fell ...

November 27, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1582876
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast Calls for Similar Annual, Monthly Gains in October

The September S&P Case-Shiller ...

November 27, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1582787
The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 1st. Sales in October were at 18.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it possible sales in October will be over 18 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 23 selling days in November, down from ...

November 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1582514
A&E has a new reality show "illustrating the every day lives of individuals with Down Syndrome" that starts on December 9th.  The show is called Born This Way!

One of the cast members is Steven Clark, the son of my college roommate.

I'm biased but I think Steven ...

November 25, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1582262
Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 (many more forecasts will be added).

First a review of the previous three years ...

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. ...

November 25, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1582173
From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in one, for a one-month diffusion index of 74. Over ...

November 25, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1582102
The new home sales report for October was slightly below expectations, however sales for July, August and September were revised down. Sales were up 4.9% year-over-year in October (SA).

Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 495,000 Annual Rate in October.

Even though the October report was somewhat ...

November 25, 2015, 11:03 am, 1581962
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 495 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down by a total of 40 thousand (SAAR).

"SSales of new single-family houses in October 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted ...

November 25, 2015, 9:03 am, 1581883
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October:

Personal income increased $68.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in October, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $15.2 billion, or 0.1 percent.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove ...