Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

October 25, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1357655
The key report this week is Q3 GDP on Thursday.

There will be an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday.

----- Monday, October 27th -----
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for September. ...

October 25, 2014, 11:03 am, 1357591
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 24, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

It was the fourth time in 2014 for the FDIC to close a bank on back-to-back ...

October 25, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357567
Excerpts from a research piece by economist Kris Dawsey at Goldman Sachs:

US data have generally been solid since the last FOMC meeting, with a few exceptions. However, concern about downside risks to global growth increased—echoed by Fed communications—while financial market volatility rose considerably. The market-implied date of the ...

October 24, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1357499
From Merrill Lynch:

The October FOMC meeting is likely to see the end of QE3 buying, as the Fed tapers the final $15bn in asset purchases. ... Tapering has been largely contingent on an improving labor market, and that has generally continued. The FOMC also has indicated multiple times ...

October 24, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1357434
From the FDIC: State Bank of Texas, Dallas, Texas, Assumes All of the Deposits of the National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois

As of June 30, 2014, The National Republic Bank of Chicago had approximately $954.4 million in total assets and $915.3 million in total deposits. ... The ...

October 24, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1357362
From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Census “guesstimated” that new SF home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 467,000 in September, up 0.2% from August’s downwardly-revised (by 7.5% to 466,000) pace. Sales estimates for June and July were also revised downward (by 2.4% and 5.4%, respectively). ...

October 24, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1357201
The new home sales report for September was slightly above expectations at 467 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). With the downward revision to August sales, sales for September were at the the highest sales rate since July 2008.

Sales for the previous three months (June, ...

October 24, 2014, 11:03 am, 1357125
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 467 thousand.

August sales were revised down from 504 thousand to466 thousand, and July sales were revised down from 427 thousand to404 thousand.

"Sales of new single-family houses in ...

October 24, 2014, 9:03 am, 1357050
According to Black Knight's First Look report for September, the percent of loans delinquent decreased in September compared to August, and declined by 12% year-over-year.

Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in September and were down 33% over the last year. Foreclosure inventory ...

October 23, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1356732
The Inland Empire comes full circle ... from the Chris Kirkham at the LA Times: Strong growth is forecast for Inland Empire

[T]he Inland Empire is now the fastest-growing region in Southern California — a trend predicted to continue over the next five years, according to an economic ...