Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

October 6, 2015, 9:03 am, 1553782
The Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.3 billion in August, up $6.5 billion from $41.8 billion in July, revised. August exports were $185.1 billion, $3.7 ...

October 5, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1553592
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $48.6 billion in August from $41.9 billion in July.

From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Ben Bernanke, in Book, Blames Congress ...

October 5, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1553470

October 5, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1553388
Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for August today. According to BKFS, 4.83% of mortgages were delinquent in August, down from 4.71% in July. BKFS reported that 1.37% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 1.80% in August 2014.

This gives ...

October 5, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1553318
Reis reported that the vacancy rate for regional malls was unchanged at 7.9% in Q3 2015. This is down from a cycle peak of 9.4% in Q3 2011.

For Neighborhood and Community malls (strip malls), the vacancy rate was unchanged at 10.1% in Q3. For strip malls, ...

October 5, 2015, 11:03 am, 1553260
The September ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 56.9%, down from 59.0% in August. The employment index increased in September to 58.3%, up from 56.0% in August. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: September 2015 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

October 4, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1553056
Reading articles this weekend on the payroll report, I'm reminded of a sentence I wrote back in March: Why the Prime Labor Force Participation Rate has Declined

"Complaining about the decline in the overall labor force participation rate is the last refuge of scoundrels."

Still true.


October 4, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1553032
By request, a few more employment graphs ...

Here are the previous posts on the employment report:

• September Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Report Comments and more Graphs

Duration of Unemployment

October 3, 2015, 9:03 am, 1552790
This will be light week for economic data.

----- Monday, October 5th -----
Early: Reis Q3 2015 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for ...

October 2, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1552712
First, a second failure today from the FDIC that makes eight in 2015: Twin City Bank, Longview, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of Hometown National Bank, Longview, Washington

As of June 30, 2015, Hometown National Bank had approximately $4.9 million in total assets and $4.7 million in total ...