Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

April 29, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1631394
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in March to 1.44%, down from 1.52% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.78% in March 2015.

This is the lowest rate since June 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in ...

April 29, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1631315
Economist Tom Lawler sent me an updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in March.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets.

Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas.

The All ...

April 29, 2016, 11:03 am, 1631271
Chicago PMI: April Chicago Business Barometer Down 3.2 Points to 50.4

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.2 points to 50.4 in April from 53.6 in March led by a fall in New Orders and a sharp drop in Order Backlogs. It marks a slow start to the second ...

April 29, 2016, 9:03 am, 1631219
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March:

Personal income increased $57.4 billion, or 0.4 percent, ... according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $12.8 billion, or 0.1 percent.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes ...

April 28, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1631049
From Merrill Lynch on April NFP:

Nonfarm payroll growth likely posted a solid 200,000 in April, driven once more by service-providing firms. Of this, government hiring likely contributed 5,000, which is a more modest clip than the 20,000 pop in March. ...

We look for the unemployment rate ...

April 28, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1630941
Earlier today, the Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q1 2016.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy ...

April 28, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1630900
The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

In ...

April 28, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1630854
From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the April Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined ...

April 28, 2016, 9:03 am, 1630764
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an ...

April 28, 2016, 9:03 am, 1630763
The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 257,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,000, a ...