Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

August 31, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1536988
From Tim Duy: Does 25bp Make A Difference?

Bottom Line: I am coming around to the belief that the timing of the first rate hike is more important than Fed officials would like us to believe. The lack of consensus regarding the timing of the first hike tells me ...

August 31, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1536940
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in July to 1.63% from 1.66% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.00% in July 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in ...

August 31, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1536798
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Stronger sales, traffic in July boost RPI

Driven by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a solid gain in July.

The RPI stood at 102.7 ...

August 31, 2015, 11:03 am, 1536675
Chicago PMI: August Chicago Business Barometer Down 0.3 Point to 54.4

The Chicago Business Barometer held on to most of July’s gain, falling just a fraction to 54.4 in Augustfrom 54.7 in July. While below the highs seen towards the end of last year, it’s still consistent with ...

August 31, 2015, 11:03 am, 1536674
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Holds Steady, but Outlooks Deteriorate

Texas factory activity was essentially flat in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, climbed to near zero (-0.8), suggesting output ...

August 30, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1536413
A September rate hike is still on the table, from Jon Hilsenrath and Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ: Fed Appears to Hold Line on Rate Plan

Federal Reserve officials emerged from a week of head-spinning financial turbulence largely sticking to their plan to raise U.S. interest rates before the ...

August 30, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1536370
The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Tuesday, Sept 1. Sales in July were at 17.5 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be over 17 million SAAR again.

Note: There were 26 selling days in August, down from ...

August 29, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1536217
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for August 2015. During the month, the list fell ...

August 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1536102
The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index and August vehicle sales, both on Tuesday, and the July Trade Deficit on Thursday.

----- Monday, August 31st -----
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. ...

August 28, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1536032
Note: Tomorrow, Saturday, at 12:25 PM ET, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on "U.S. Inflation Developments"

A couple of quotes from earlier today ...

From Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times: Fed Official Fischer Leaves Door Open for September Rate ...