Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

May 25, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1480153
From Bloomberg: What Would Happen If Greece Doesn’t Pay the IMF: Q&A

Q: What will the IMF do?

A: A missed payment date starts the clock ticking. Two weeks after the initial due date and a cable from Washington urging immediate payment, the fund sends another cable stressing ...

May 25, 2015, 11:03 am, 1480025
According to (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are down to a national average of $2.75 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $3.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.70 per gallon.

Ten years ...

May 24, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1479825
Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is now at $85.50. In May 2009, RevPAR had fallen to $58.39. So, RevPAR is up 46.9% over the last 6 years - and the occupancy rate will probably be at a new record high this year.  A great year for hotels!

May 24, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1479764
From the WSJ: Greece Won’t Meet IMF Repayments in June, Interior Minister Says

Greece said Sunday that it won’t have the money it is due to repay to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it strikes a deal with international creditors over further rescue funding.

Interior Minister ...

May 23, 2015, 9:03 am, 1479466
The key reports this week are April New Home sales on Tuesday, the 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP on Friday, and March Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, May 25th -----
All US ...

May 22, 2015, 5:03 pm, 1479284
Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 3% in April

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 3% in April, following a revised gain of 0.4% during the previous month. In April, the index equaled ...

May 22, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1479212
From Fed Chair Janet Yellen: The Outlook for the Economy

[I]f the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing ...

May 22, 2015, 1:03 pm, 1479125
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The ...

May 22, 2015, 9:03 am, 1478940
From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

May 22, 2015, 7:03 am, 1478888
According to Black Knight's First Look report for April, the percent of loans delinquent increased 1% in April compared to March, and declined 15% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in March and were down 25% over the last year.

Black ...