Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

May 31, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1641352
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in ...

May 31, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1641250
Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller Graphs: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in March

The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 5%. In March, the index was up 5.2% YoY.

In the earlier post, I graphed nominal house ...

May 31, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1641205
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Declines

Texas factory activity declined in May after two months of increases, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 5.8 to -13.1, hitting its lowest reading ...

May 31, 2016, 11:03 am, 1641163
Note: S&P is having difficulty this morning.

From the WSJ: U.S. Home Price Growth Remained Robust in March, Case-Shiller Says

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering the entire nation rose 5.2% in the 12 months ended in March, slightly less than a 5.3% increase in February.

May 31, 2016, 11:03 am, 1641162
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not ...

May 31, 2016, 9:03 am, 1641122
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April:

Personal income increased $69.8 billion, or 0.4 percent April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $119.2 billion, or 1.0 percent.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price ...

May 30, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1641007
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price ...

May 30, 2016, 11:03 am, 1640895
From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Trends in oil supply and demand. A few excerpts:

The new supplies from the U.S., Iraq, and Iran brought prices down dramatically. And in response, demand has been climbing back up. U.S. consumption over the last 12 months was 800,000 b/d higher ...

May 29, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1640783
According to, gasoline prices aredown to a national average of $2.33 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $2.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.75 per gallon.

This is the lowest Memorial ...

May 29, 2016, 11:03 am, 1640732
People have different priorities and different values. But we share the same data. Over the last few days, we've heard a presidential contender make comments completing ignoring the data. This should concern everyone - ignoring data leads to irresponsible comments and poor policy decisions.

First, I live ...