Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

July 30, 2016, 9:03 am, 1658911
The key report this week is the July employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the June ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, July auto sales, and the June trade deficit.

----- Monday, Aug 1st -----

July 29, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1658829
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 2016.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for July 2016. During the month, the list fell ...

July 29, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1658762
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: RPI continues to show mixed results

As a result of softer sales and a dampened outlook among operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined for the second consecutive month. The RPI stood at 100.3 ...

July 29, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1658761
CR Note: Housing economist Tom Lawler sent me these summary results for several large publicly-traded builders who have reported results for last quarter.

Lawler notes: CalAtlantic was formed with the merger of Standard Pacific and Ryland, completed in October 2015. The Q2/2015 statistics for CalAtlantic are pro forma ...

July 29, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1658663
The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

In the ...

July 29, 2016, 11:03 am, 1658613
Chicago PMI: July Chicago Business Barometer Down 1 Point to 55.8

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 1 point to 55.8 in July from the 1½-year high of 56.8 in June, led by a fall in New Orders. Smaller declines were seen in Production and Order Backlogs, which ...

July 29, 2016, 9:03 am, 1658556
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased ...

July 28, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1658370
Note: As part of the GDP release tomorrow, the BEA will also release the annual revision. From the BEA:

The annual revision of the national income and product accounts, covering the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2016, will be released along with the ...

July 28, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1658334
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in June to 1.32%, down from 1.38% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.66% in June 2015.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

July 28, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1658290
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: June Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect a Third Straight Monthly Decline in 10- and 20-City Indices

May ...