May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Following the UK referendum, we have downgraded our global growth forecast, sharply in the UK and more modestly elsewhere. Increased uncertainty and deteriorating terms of trade are likely to subtract a cumulative 2Â¾% from UK ...
The Census Bureau has just released the population estimates for 2015, and I've updated the table from the previous post (replacing 2013 with 2015 data).
The table ...
----- Monday, June 27th -----
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
----- Tuesday, June ...
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2016.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
Update on the Unofficial Problem Bank List for June 2016. During the month, the list fell ...
From yesterday's most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote of 3.625%, we're now easily down to 3.5% for most lenders. A few of the most aggressive lenders are already down to ...
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2016. In the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in eight, and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 60. Over ...
Note: There were 26 selling days in June, up from 25 in June 2015.
From WardsAuto: Forecast: June Sales to Reach 11-Year High
A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.57 million light ...
The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union. The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines ...
"Consumers were a bit less optimistic in late June due to rising concerns about prospects for the national economy. While no recession ...
â€¢ At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders.
â€¢ At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer ...