Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”


September 28, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1780542
As part of the new home sales report released on Tuesday, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.

From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2017 was $300,200. The average ...


September 28, 2017, 11:23 am, 1780437
From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Expand Solidly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing ...


September 28, 2017, 9:03 am, 1780377
The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 272,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 259,000 to 260,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,750, an ...


September 27, 2017, 8:34 pm, 1780247
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, up from 259 thousand the previous week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2017 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real ...


September 27, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1780204
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the ...


September 27, 2017, 5:23 pm, 1780203
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the ...


September 27, 2017, 3:23 pm, 1780123
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Svenja Gudell at Zillow: August Case-Shiller Forecast: Annual Home-Price Gains Aiming Higher

The Case-Shiller U.S. ...


September 27, 2017, 12:34 pm, 1780001
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was at 0.84%, down from 0.85% in July.  Freddie's rate is down from 1.03% in August 2016.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

This is the lowest serious delinquency rate since ...


September 27, 2017, 10:34 am, 1779946
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fall 2.6 Percent in August; 2017 Forecast Downgraded

Pending home sales sank in August for the fifth time in six months, and slower activity in the areas hit hard by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will likely pull existing sales for the year below ...


September 27, 2017, 7:03 am, 1779869
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Slightly Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Surve

Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 22, 2017.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent ...