Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

October 25, 2016, 11:03 am, 1686530
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3 month average of June, July and August prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not ...

October 25, 2016, 9:03 am, 1686491
From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look at September Mortgage Data: Post-‘Brexit’ Prepay Activity Remains Strong; Foreclosure Rate Falls to Nine-Year Low

• Despite declining from August, September saw the third highest prepayment rate in three years

• September’s less-than-one-percent seasonal increase in the delinquency rate was ...

October 24, 2016, 5:03 pm, 1686257
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in September.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in most of these markets.

Short sales and foreclosures are down in most of these areas.

TheAll ...

October 24, 2016, 3:03 pm, 1686208
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 3.4% (9.3 billion vehicle miles) for August 2016 as compared with August 2015.

Travel for the month is estimated to be 284.9 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for August ...

October 24, 2016, 11:03 am, 1686123
From the Eric Morath at the WSJ: Retailers Rushed to Hire for Holidays, a Sign of Tight Labor Market

Retailers geared up to hire holiday-season workers in August this year, an unusually early start showing how competition has intensified for temporary help in a tight labor market.

Data ...

October 24, 2016, 9:03 am, 1686081
From the Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Picked Up in September

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.14 in September from –0.72 in August. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from August, but in September, ...

October 23, 2016, 9:03 pm, 1685977
Schedule for Week of Oct 23, 2016

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures and DOW futures are ...

October 23, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1685945
The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Tuesday, November 1st.

Note: There were 26 selling days in October 2016, down from 28 in October 2015.

From WardsAuto: Forecast: October Daily Sales to Reach 15-Year High

A WardsAuto forecast calls for October U.S. light-vehicle sales to ...

October 22, 2016, 9:03 am, 1685816
The key economic reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and September New Home Sales.

Also the Case-Shiller House Price Index for August will be released.

For manufacturing, the October Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, ...

October 21, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1685761
Here is some additional analysis on the labor force participation rate. Dr. Frank Lysy discusses the various reasons for the decline in the labor force participation rate for prime age workers - especially the multi-decade decline for prime working age men: The Structural Factors Behind the Steady Fall ...