Technical Problems 1/21/15
The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”
Other key reports include the January ISM manufacturing index on Monday, January vehicle sales on Tuesday, the ISM non-manufacturing index on Wednesday, and the December Trade Deficit on Thursday.
----- Monday, February 2nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal ...
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 30, 2015.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
As expected, the FDIC released an update on its enforcement action activities through December 2014 that ...
Here is a minor indicator I follow from the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Finished the Year on a Positive Note
Driven by positive sales and traffic and an uptick in capital expenditures, ...
The key numbers are: 1) PCE increased at a 4.3% annual rate in Q4 (the two month method nails it ...
Click on graph for larger image.
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 98.1, down slightly from the preliminary estimate of 98.2, ...
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter ...
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3.5 percent on January 27, unchanged from January 21.From Nomura:
Incoming data suggest that the economy grew at a slower pace in Q4 than ...
From Zillow: Expect Recent Trend of Sub-5% Annual ...
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for December 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 46 states and remained stable in four, for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three ...