Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Calculated Risk

"Random thoughts on Politics and Economics”

October 19, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1353769
From Merrill Lynch on Oil:

The plunge in oil prices, if it proves persistent, could end up being the big economic story. Energy prices have fallen very sharply in the past three months. Brent oil prices have declined from around $110/bbl in July to $86/bbl as this goes to ...

October 19, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353679
Some interesting thoughts from Professor Hamilton: How will Saudi Arabia respond to lower oil prices?

Oil prices (along with prices of many other commodities) have fallen dramatically since last summer. Some observers are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia responds with significant cutbacks in production. I say, don’t hold ...

October 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1353471
The key reports this week are September New home sales on Friday, and Existing home sales on Tuesday.

For prices, CPI will be released on Wednesday.

----- Monday, October 20th -----
No releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, October 21st -----

October 18, 2014, 9:03 am, 1353371
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 17, 2014.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Unexpectedly, there was a bank failure today. Expectedly, the OCC provided us an update on ...

October 17, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1353229
This is the first bank failure since July!

From the FDIC: Howard Bank, Ellicott City, Maryland, Assumes All of the Deposits of NBRS Financial, Rising Sun, Maryland

As of June 30, 2014, NBRS Financial had approximately $188.2 million in total assets and $183.1 million in total deposits. ... ...

October 17, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353006
There were 761 thousand total housing starts during the first nine months of 2014 (not seasonally adjusted, NSA), up 9.5% from the 695 thousand during the same period of 2013.  Single family starts are up 4%, and multifamily starts up 23%.  The key weakness has been in single family starts.

October 17, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1353005
From Joe Light at the WSJ: Fannie, Freddie Near Deal That Promises to Boost Mortgage Lending

Mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , their regulator and lenders are close to an agreement that could greatly expand mortgage credit while helping lenders protect themselves from charges ...

October 17, 2014, 11:03 am, 1352935

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 86.4, up from 84.6 in September.

October 17, 2014, 9:03 am, 1352853
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,017,000. This is 6.3 percent above the revised August estimate of 957,000 and is 17.8 percent above the September 2013 rate of 863,000.

Single-family housing ...

October 16, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1352584
From Jann Swanson at Mortgage News Daily: Relaxed QRM Rules Expected Next Week(ht Soylent Green is People)

Federal regulators may finally produce the long anticipated market standards for Qualified Residential Mortgages (QRM), perhaps even as early as next week. The new rules are designed to ensure the quality ...