Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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William J. Polley

"Comments and observations on economics and whatever else catches my eye”

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502575
Nice article in the NY Times on the switching cost of cell phones. Yes, economic theory really does work.

You would think that there were few barriers to switching cellphones. But the carriers try to make it harder to switch by locking customers into two-year contracts with high ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502580

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502578
Daniel Gross (Slate) explains why we shouldn't worry about the size of the Fed's balance sheet.

The bottom line? The Fed wants to get the junk off its balance sheet and return to a situation in which it has about $1 trillion in assets, the lion's share of ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502579

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502577

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502576
I saw this a while back and am now catching up. It's an article in the NY Times Magazine on "The Rise and Fall of GDP." Definitely something to urge my students to read.

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502569
Interesting question. The Wall Street Journal Real Time Economics blog looks to the FOMC members for clarity and finds precious little.

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig continues to believe rates need to rise, which leaves him in opposition to the decision made just over a week ago ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502568
NY Times obituary

I have a copy of his classic The Fractal Geometry of Nature, and I have his autograph from the 1990 Nobel Conference at Gustavus Adolphus. His work was not universally accepted and still remains somewhat on the fringes. Yet it captured my imagination as ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502566
It's been a while... far too long. Suffice to say that my day job has been keeping me very busy this year and has made blogging difficult. I want to rectify that, but it may be tough going for a while yet.

This, however, was enough to bring ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502567
Your government at work again. Remember, they only want to protect you. That attorneys and CPAs should benefit from this at the expense of others is simply coincidence.

Yeah, right.

(Via Craig Newmark)