Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


July 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1657118

Each month, Gordon Green and John Coder of the private sector income and demographics analysis firm Sentier Research report on the level of median household income that they estimate from monthly Current Population Survey data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. ...


July 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1656708

The S&P 500 in the third week of July 2016 ran a bit to the hot side for what our future-based model forecast, but still well within the typical volatility that we would expect. In the chart below, we find that investors are largely continuing ...


July 22, 2016, 5:03 am, 1656111

There are some really exciting developments starting to bubble up like perfectoid spaces in mathematics.

Talk ...


July 21, 2016, 7:03 am, 1655655

We have a new example of junk science today, which might perhaps be better described as bad analysis that checks off one of the more significant boxes in our junk science checklist. Specifically, today's example trips over the checklist category for Inconsistencies, which is ...


July 20, 2016, 7:03 am, 1655273

Nearly a month ago, we presented our "most likely" prediction for how the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will revise the U.S.' Real Gross Domestic Product on Friday, 29 July 2016.

Let's recap what we forecast, picking things up from after we ...


July 19, 2016, 5:03 am, 1654849

Last week, while visiting Bozeman, Montana, Matt Kahn looked out over all he surveyed and said:

I'm in Bozeman, Montana. While there are 40,000 people in this city. ...


July 18, 2016, 5:03 am, 1654463

The second week of July 2016 was one of those rare weeks when our futures-based model for projecting the future closing value of the S&P 500 was very nearly dead on target for every day of the week, as long as you recognize that target was ...


July 15, 2016, 5:03 am, 1653883

If you haven't seen it yet, the following video shows the optical illusion of the year (HT: Marginal Revolution).

And if you want to know how it works, the next


July 14, 2016, 5:03 am, 1653538

After visualizing how U.S. GDP has evolved since the first quarter of 1947, both with and without the contribution of the federal government and also state and local governments, we couldn't help but notice that the U.S. federal government's contribution to GDP in recent ...


July 13, 2016, 5:03 am, 1653197

Not long ago, we received an interesting request from one of our longtime readers:

Could you do an article and specifically a graphic that would show what the US economy would look like ...