Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


December 19, 2014, 9:03 am, 1392038

Suppose, for a moment, that you could look up and see the Moon from anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere on every night of 2015.

Thanks to images collected by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the talented staff at NASA's Scientific Visualizations Studio, ...


December 18, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1391632

Barry Ritholtz has a fine rant:

Those of you who continue to insist you can even remotely forecast what might happen next continue to reveal incredibly foolish, thoroughly disproved beliefs, despite ...


December 17, 2014, 9:03 pm, 1391111

It has often been remarked that falling oil prices are unambiguously good for Americans. But as we'll show you today, who they might be good for depends greatly upon where you live and the kind of government policies that are enforced there.

Let's ...


December 16, 2014, 9:03 am, 1389912

In discussing the rise of volatility in the U.S. stock market at this time yesterday, we omitted our chart showing each of the trajectories that stock prices are likely to follow depending upon which particular quarter in the future they might be focusing their attention. ...


December 15, 2014, 3:03 am, 1389022

For all the noise related to falling oil prices and their impact upon stock prices during the past week, there is something that we have not yet seen that would fully confirm the fears of U.S. investors: large numbers of companies in the oil ...


December 12, 2014, 9:03 am, 1388064

For months now, the cost of a barrel of crude oil has been falling and now, those prices are falling rapidly.

But what does the falling price of crude oil today mean for you at the gasoline pump? How will the price of ...


December 11, 2014, 11:03 am, 1387396

For the second month in a row, our alternative measure of the relative health of China's economy indicates that nation is potentially in recession.

Our alternative measure is based trade data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, which is considerably more reliable than the ...


December 10, 2014, 11:03 am, 1386662

Now that we've made our Toolmaker's Tool fully functional and available to all, we thought we'd check in with the S&P 500 and the likely alternative trajectories that stock prices may follow. The chart below shows where things stand as of the close of ...


December 8, 2014, 3:03 am, 1384907

Nearly twenty years ago, we invented a small part of the Internet. Specifically, we invented a method that greatly automated the computer programming ...


December 5, 2014, 3:03 am, 1383698

When did the U.S. economy really recover to its pre-recession level?

If you go just by the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the answer is yes - after accounting for inflation, it recovered to its pre-recession peak back in the middle of 2011. Our first ...