Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

July 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1504011

One of the nicer things ever said about the kinds of analysis we do here at Political Calculations recently surfaced over at the ChicagoBoyz blog, as Grurray took on the challenge of explaining the unique brand of stock market forecasting we do.

July 3, 2015, 5:03 am, 1501024

Last year, videographer Jos Stiglingh risked a DJI Phantom 2 drone with a GoPro Hero 3 Silver by flying it through the heart of New York City's fireworks show. For your entertainment. Enjoy!

July 2, 2015, 5:03 am, 1500438

Can you imagine a world where nobody knew what condensed soup was or how to prepare a meal with it?

That's the problem that Campbell's John T. Dorrance faced after developing the commercial process that would extract water from soup while preserving much of ...

July 1, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1500264

We're seeing something of a disconnect in the dividend data we track. First, according to Standard & Poor's Monthly Dividend Action Report [Excel Spreadsheet], the relative health of the private sector of the U.S. economy declined back to contractionary levels in June 2015 ...

June 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1499081

Reuters has sounded some dire news:

Wall St. tumbles as investors flee equities on Greek debt crisis

U.S. stocks fell sharply in heavy trading on Monday and the S&P 500 and ...

June 29, 2015, 9:03 am, 1498499

June 26, 2015, 5:03 am, 1497333

There are two ways to watch the following performance of Emimem's Lose Yourself: first with the sound on, and then with the sound off. Both are awesome!

HT: Kottke.

June 25, 2015, 5:03 am, 1496701

After having worked out how many calories you're really eating, we thought we'd next turn ...

June 24, 2015, 1:03 am, 1495972

We now have a handle on what the expected future for the S&P 500's dividends per share is through 2016-Q2. Our first chart shows the recent past history of how Standard and Poor has recorded each quarters dividends from 2013-Q1 through 2015-Q1, with the expected ...

June 23, 2015, 9:03 am, 1495475

Last week, when we unveiled our charts showing the historic price of the No. 1 can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup for almost every month since January 1898 to the present, we couldn't help but notice that its price trajectory seemed to be pretty ...