Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

October 21, 2016, 7:03 am, 1685561

When junk science goes unchallenged, it can have real world consequences.

In today's example of junk science, we have a case where the real world consequences involve taxes being selectively imposed on a single class of products that is commonly purchased by millions of consumers, soda ...

October 20, 2016, 7:03 am, 1685183

Since the Affordable Care Act's health insurance "marketplaces" first went online back in October 2013, we've been proud to offer a unique tool that ...

October 19, 2016, 7:03 am, 1684842

Is there a better way to weight stocks within a market index?

Modern portfolio theory suggests that the optimal way to weight stocks within an index is according to their market capitalization, where the percentage representation of each company within ...

October 18, 2016, 5:03 am, 1684456

How well off are typical Americans today?

That's a difficult question to answer using conventional economic statistics like GDP, because over time, GDP has become an increasingly less representative measure of the quality of life that Americans enjoy. That discrepancy hasn't ...

October 17, 2016, 7:03 am, 1684153

From all appearances, investors have indeed shifted their forward-looking focus to the current quarter of 2016-Q4 in setting stock prices.

That's a change from the previous week, where the trajectory of the S&P 500 suggested that might be the case, but which wasn't as ...

October 14, 2016, 7:03 am, 1683597

Pinuccio Sciola is a sculptor of sound, who makes a very different kind of rock music with carefully considered cuts to explore the natural harmonics of stone. While the following video is presented in Italian with German subtitles, you don't need to speak ...

October 13, 2016, 7:03 am, 1683263

Technical analysts are an interesting breed. For the most part, these are people who use stock price charts to identify patterns in how stock prices have previously behaved, which they then compare to current day stock price charts to see if similar patterns have developed, ...

October 12, 2016, 7:03 pm, 1683159

Ten years ago, in 2006, the average combined cost of health insurance premiums and deductibles for a single individual in the United States was $1,211. In 2016, that figure has risen to $2,607, representing an average increase of 8% per year. ...

October 11, 2016, 7:03 am, 1682630

In June 2016, the Earth passed a "grim milestone" with respect to the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere.

The atmosphere has hit a grim milestone — and scientists ...

October 10, 2016, 7:03 am, 1682244

As expected, the path of the S&P 500 in the first week of October 2016 came in below our standard model's projections, as stock prices continued their mostly sideways trajectory of the last three months, although with a slightly downward course.