Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


June 24, 2016, 7:03 am, 1648109

Most people don't realize this, but the entire science of economics is really about cows.

Really! Just consider the following list of economic systems that have been proposed, which we've grafted together from a several different sources, and which ...


June 23, 2016, 5:03 am, 1647753

If we go by media reports, there is a very fine line between ho-hum and major fear in the U.S. stock market ...


June 22, 2016, 5:03 am, 1647396

How much will U.S. GDP most likely be revised when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its annual revision to the nation's real GDP on 29 July 2016?

We started working on that question last Thursday, the day after the BEA released its ...


June 21, 2016, 5:03 am, 1647057

Since January 2007, the GDP of the United States has been boosted by an unusual source: the wars it is fighting abroad.

We can see that from our pioneering analysis of the upcoming July 2016 revision of national GDP, which becomes clear when we ...


June 20, 2016, 5:03 am, 1646719

How is the pace of dividend cuts in the U.S. stock market during 2016-Q2 coming along compared to the previous quarter? And how does that compare to the pace of dividend cuts that was recorded in the year ago quarter of 2015-Q2?

The last time we ...


June 17, 2016, 5:03 am, 1646175

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by CNBC Radio's This and That's Pat Kelly, who vividly remembers when he first knew he was a 'Thought Leader' and who gives a talk about 'Thought Leadership' that will inspire your thoughts.


June 16, 2016, 5:03 am, 1645847

Last year, humans on the planet Earth would appear to have set a new world record for fossil fuel consumption.

Each year in June two very important reports are released that ...


June 15, 2016, 5:03 am, 1645496

Yesterday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimates of state level Gross Domestic Product through 2015-Q4. As it did, the BEA revised its previous quarterly GDP estimates for each state going back to at least 2005-Q1.

In doing that, the BEA's ...


June 14, 2016, 5:03 am, 1645126

What if your town got really lucky and landed a new major employer - one that would ...


June 13, 2016, 5:03 am, 1644764

After the fireworks of the previous week, the second week of June 2016 was extremely quiet by comparison.

Let's quickly run through the headlines and our notes for the week that was.

Monday, 6 June 2016 Fed's Lockhart, Bullard shift rate-hike ...