Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Political Calculations


September 28, 2017, 4:07 am, 1780305

Following our analysis that indicates that the market for new homes in the U.S. is showing signs of topping out, we can also report that the median cost of a new home with respect to the median household income of a U.S. household is ...


September 27, 2017, 4:07 am, 1779832

The just released new home sales data for August 2017 is preliminary, and the data for June and July 2017 is still subject to revision, but it looks like the market capitalization of the new home sales market in the United States may have ...


September 26, 2017, 3:46 am, 1779376

The Fed did nothing with short term interest rates in the U.S. at its September 2017 meeting last week, yet the probability of a recession in the U.S. getting started at sometime in the next year ticked ever so slightly upward


September 25, 2017, 4:37 am, 1778979

The S&P 500 closed the third week of September 2017 exactly 1.99 points higher than it closed the previous week of the month. In percentage terms, that's a gain of almost 0.08%!

For a week in which the U.S. Federal Reserve met and officially decided the ...


September 22, 2017, 4:37 am, 1778227

Any chemical can be toxic and cause death when ingested in large enough ...


September 21, 2017, 4:08 am, 1777863

How much do you need to save for retirement to maintain your pre-retirement lifestyle?

It's an easier question to ask than to answer because there are a multitude of factors that can affect what the right answer to the question will be for you. And ...


September 20, 2017, 3:46 am, 1777413

What are the differences between the Congressional Budget Office's estimates of income inequality among U.S. households and the annual estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau?

We've taken a stab at answering that question in a visual format through the following infographic! Please click the ...


September 19, 2017, 3:46 am, 1776973

The pace of dividend cuts in 2017-Q3 has decelerated from what we were observing a month ago, where suddenly, 2017-Q3 is perhaps shaping up to be the best quarter to date in 2017. The following chart compares where the cumulative number of dividend ...


September 18, 2017, 3:26 am, 1776519

U.S. stock prices during the second week of September 2017 were largely driven by two news events:

Actual damage from Hurricane Irma in Florida proved to be considerably less than had been projected. Inflation data put rate hikes back onto ...


September 15, 2017, 3:46 am, 1775908

A 1977 classic short on the relative scale of everything in the universe.

HT: Quanta's Robbert Dijkgraaf, who linked the Charles and Ray Eames' film while discussing reductionism and emergence as the ...