Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

May 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1640309

Not long ago, we had the opportunity to buy Manchester United.

That's right. The soccer team. The one that Forbes estimates to be worth over 3.3 billion dollars, or if you prefer, the football team that Forbes estimates is worth ...

May 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639969

Following up our discussion of the priorities of the TSA (a.k.a. the Transportation Security Administration), we thought it might be worth looking at the priorities of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as measured by how it directed the money it was authorized ...

May 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639588

Not long ago, we came across a data source that provided over 150 years worth of nominal price data for wheat crops grown in the U.S., which we recently visualized.

But more than that, it also provided some very remarkable data on ...

May 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1639204

On Monday, 16 May 2016, the U.S. Treasury updated its accounting of the national origins of the major foreign holders of debt issued by the U.S. government through the end of March 2016, the halfway point of the federal government's fiscal year. With ...

May 23, 2016, 5:03 am, 1638874

Quite a lot has happened since we last commented on the S&P 500 and the news events that influenced it during the first part of the third week of May 2016. In short, the following major events happened:

More officials at the U.S. ...

May 20, 2016, 5:03 am, 1638322

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, right about the time that earnings season has ended for the U.S. stock market.

Today, we'll confirm for the

May 19, 2016, 11:03 am, 1638012

Last year, on 20 August 2016, a four year long period of order in the U.S. stock market came to a crashing end.

May 18, 2016, 5:03 am, 1637545

Although the poorly laid plans of the TSA interfered with our usual posting schedule this week, we're fortunate in that recent developments in the market are giving us something far more interesting to write about today that what we might otherwise have discussed this ...

May 17, 2016, 11:03 am, 1637286

Visually confirmed by a traveler at Chicago's Midway Airport (MDW), five days ago, but repeated many times in many places in the days since:

Here is what the hapless head of the U.S. Department ...

May 13, 2016, 5:03 am, 1636217

On 18 March 2016, Arturo Vittori and the team behind Warka Water won the 2016 World Design Impact Prize from the International Council of Societies of Industrial Design for their unique concept of supplying potable water to remote regions in ...