Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Political Calculations


October 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356898

We need you to watch the following video, in which Dave Hax describes how to freehand draw a perfect circle. Once you've seen how, we need you to duplicate his "target" pattern of the three concentric circles on a sheet of paper, making the innermost ...


October 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1356077
The Impact of a Foreign Terror Incident on the U.S. Stock Market

The unfortunate news of yesterday's Parliament Hill terrorist incident in Ottawa provides the background for a quick study of the impact that such events can have on the U.S. stock market. We ...


October 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1355279

Since we're now outside of the anniversary period of 2013's U.S. debt ceiling crisis, the third and smallest of the major noise events of 2013, we're making the transition back to using our standard baseline model for use in forecasting and explaining changes in current day ...


October 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1354525

Who were the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of the end of its 2014 fiscal year?

The preliminary answer of who owns the $17.860 trillion in debt issued by the U.S. federal government as of 30 September 2014 is presented ...


October 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1353827

Since the S&P 500 is behaving so predictably, and because we just visited the topic on Thursday, 16 October 2014, we thought we'd take this opportunity to revisit how the stock prices of the S&P 500 behaved in the third quarter of 2014.

Our ...


October 17, 2014, 5:03 am, 1352730

What if income inequality theorists got their way and stopped income inequality from ever ...


October 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1352018

This may surprise a lot of people, mainly because it stands in such contrast to the work product of their journalistic peers, but a lot of financial reporting is pretty well done.

But even financial journalists don't quite get the stories they cover 100% right. ...


October 15, 2014, 5:03 am, 1351305

Something strange is going on with young adults in the U.S. job market.

In July 2014, the seasonally adjusted number of Americans between the ages of 20 and 24 reached 13,976,000, just 25,000 shy of the 14,001,000 figure recorded in November 2007, when the level of ...


October 14, 2014, 5:03 am, 1350593

It's wrong to use direct statistical analysis to describe how stock prices behave for any really long period of time. Mostly because it is only valid to apply those methods when certain conditions exist, when the market might be described as being


October 13, 2014, 5:03 am, 1349950

At the beginning of last week, many hours before the opening of the stock market on Monday, 7 October 2014, we did something that nobody else can do: we correctly anticipated where the S&P 500 would close on each and every day of the ...