Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Political Calculations


August 4, 2015, 5:03 am, 1521438

In our last installment in our national dividend series, we were striving to turn our work in developing a consumption-based national dividend concept for measuring the economic well-being of typical Americans into a monthly economic indicator.

It turns out however that our source for ...


August 3, 2015, 5:03 am, 1520687

Last week, we considered what the potential impact of stock buybacks would be to the S&P 500 as if the venerable stock market index was the stock price of a single company. We concluded our analysis as follows:


July 31, 2015, 5:03 am, 1519186

Do you remember when President Obama said that the U.S. economy, "by every metric, is better" than when he took office?

In addition to that claim having been rated as "mostly false" by the left-leaning Politifact, the Bureau of Economic Analysis rained on the ...


July 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1518357

When did the earliest advertisement for Campbell's brand new line of condensed soups appear in a local U.S. newspaper?

Previously, we identified what we believe to be is the first newspaper advertisement ever for Campbell's Condensed Soup, but there's some uncertaintly with that ad ...


July 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1517541

Based on preliminary data, it appears that the second U.S. housing bubble may have entered a new phase. If the trends we observe in the data holds, it would mark the third phase of the bubble, which originally began to inflate in July 2012.


July 28, 2015, 5:03 am, 1516717

Today, we're going to do some quick, back-of-the-envelope style economics to answer the question of whether the supply or the demand for new homes is what is behind the recent falling trend for their prices. First, let's visually establish that yes, both average and median ...


July 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1516006

How different would the value of the S&P 500 be if not for the amount of stock buybacks that have taken place in the U.S. stock market since the end of 2008?

We're asking that question today because of the recent suggestion that "Wall ...


July 24, 2015, 5:03 am, 1514887

We always thought that the early 21st century was kind of steampunk cool, what with all the advancements in lasers, artificial intelligence, computer hacking and the automation of stupidity, but perhaps nothing stands out more to ...


July 23, 2015, 5:03 am, 1514077

Via Barry Ritholtz, we were impressed by the following chart from Bloomberg indicating at "when your city became unaffordable", as measured by percentage of the income earned by a typical 22-to-34 year old American worker within a given major U.S. city would ...


July 22, 2015, 5:03 am, 1513317

How much did it cost the producer of the goods you see for sale at a retailer to actually make those goods?

The answer is "it depends," and what the real answer depends upon is how much of a markup has been put on the goods ...