Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Political Calculations


September 27, 2016, 7:03 am, 1678801

In the private sector, the decision to take on debt can be considered to be a bet on the future.

By and large, when a new debt is incurred, it means that both borrower and lender have made a determination that the borrower will have sufficient ...


September 26, 2016, 7:03 am, 1678455

The third full week of September 2016 saw the month's second Lévy flight event, which began in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 21 September 2016. We can see the result of that event, which coincides with investors appearing to ...


September 23, 2016, 7:03 am, 1677936

Can different parts of the human brain be reprogrammed to do tasks that are very different from those they would ...


September 22, 2016, 7:03 am, 1677581

What really separates science from pseudoscience?

At its core, the main difference between a legitimate scientific endeavor and a pseudoscientific one comes down to the goals of the people engaged in each activity. Our checklist for how to detect junk science in fact ...


September 21, 2016, 7:03 am, 1677239
Unofficially speaking, as measured by the number of domestic firms listed on U.S. stock exchanges, the U.S. stock market has shrunk to the lowest level on record in data that extends back to 1975.


September 20, 2016, 7:07 am, 1676883

Two weeks ago, we noticed an unusual trend for the number of dividend increases announced by U.S. firms in August 2016, where we saw that it was falling as compared to the year over year data.

What makes that trend unusual is that ...


September 19, 2016, 5:03 am, 1676463

The second full week of September 2016 was the most volatilile one we've seen for the S&P 500 since the Brexit noise event of June 2016. At the same time however, it was perhaps the least eventful.


September 16, 2016, 7:03 am, 1673471

Traditionally, imploding a building in an urban area is both a noisy and messy operation. But Japan's Taisei Corporation has developed a way to do it both quietly and cleanly. Not to mention slowly and in a way that generates electricity as ...


September 15, 2016, 9:03 am, 1673179

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is a joint project of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, which documents the amount of money that Americans spend each year on everything from Shelter, which is the biggest annual expenditure for most Americans, ...


September 14, 2016, 11:03 am, 1672850

The University of Kentucky's football team is off to a bad start this year on the heels of two lackluster seasons. With zero wins and two losses, there is a serious discussion underway at the university of whether or not it ought to buy out ...