Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


November 26, 2014, 3:03 am, 1378078

For many Americans, part of what makes the Thanksgiving holidays such an ordeal from year to year is simply finding something new and interesting to talk about with family members around the dining table.

We've decided to make that a lot easier to do this year, ...


November 25, 2014, 3:03 am, 1377310

In 2014, the early projections indicated that the population of turkeys produced in the United States continued to shrink, with an estimated 235 million turkeys. That's down about 2% from the 240 million that were produced in 2013.


November 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1376718

In 2014, the average live weight of the typical turkey that will be consumed during the Thanksgiving holiday is 30.2 pounds.


November 21, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1376033

Friday, 21 November 2014 saw a major change in the expectations for future dividends per share in the stock market for the current quarter (2014-Q4), as measured by the Chicago Board of Exchange's dividend futures contracts, as not much changed for all of the ...


November 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1374774

Needless to say, the secret to superior paper aerodynamics requires precise fabrication! (HT: Kottke)

The paper folding tool shown in the video is surprisingly affordable, as is the bag clip!


November 19, 2014, 3:03 am, 1373963

Every three months, in the middle of each financial quarter, we've been taking a snapshot of the earnings per share for the S&P 500 that are expected going forward for as far as Standard & Poor projects them. In our last installment, we saw that ...


November 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1373227

The southern land border of the United States with Mexico is


November 17, 2014, 3:03 am, 1372527

Today, we're testing out a super-simple method for dealing with short term echoes for our standard model for forecasting stock prices.

Echoes, as our long term readers will know, are the result of past volatility in stock prices and their effect upon our forecasting model. ...


November 14, 2014, 5:03 am, 1371262

Should you bother signing up for subsidized Affordable Care Act health insurance through the state or federal government-run "marketplaces" this year? ...


November 13, 2014, 5:03 am, 1370386

A new trend for new jobless claims has become established since the end of June 2014.