Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


August 28, 2015, 5:03 am, 1535542

Three weeks ago, we featured the work of the young Australian behind the Primitive Technology blog, who built a stone adze from scratch in the wild, which he then proceeded to use to build a primitive, yet effective and durable shelter from ...


August 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1534866

Believe it or not, August is shaping up to be the second best month for dividends in 2015.

But don't take our word for it - the proof is in our near-real time measure of the level of distress in the U.S. economy, the cumulative number ...


August 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1534410

Based on the outcome of the remarkable volatility of trading in the U.S. stock market on 25 August 2015, our rebaselined model of how stock prices work would say that investors are now fully focused on the first quarter of 2016 as ...


August 26, 2015, 5:03 am, 1534285

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter. Today, we'll confirm that the earnings recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2014 has continued to deepen.


August 25, 2015, 5:03 am, 1533614

A little over two years ago, the suggestion that Larry Summers was likely to be appointed to be put in charge of the Federal Reserve was enough to make the stock market swoon.

Fortunately, that never happened, but yesterday, Larry Summers may very well ...


August 24, 2015, 5:03 am, 1532992

USA Today's Matt Krantz considered an interesting premise at 4:59 PM EDT on 21 August 2015, just after the Dow Jones Industrial average lost 531 points and the S&P 500 lost 65: "How low the stock market can go".


August 21, 2015, 3:03 am, 1532024

On 20 August 2015, the period of order that had existed in the U.S. stock market since 4 August 2011 broke down. Statistically speaking that is!


August 20, 2015, 9:03 am, 1531525

Economist Paul Romer recently made waves in his profession after he recognized the increasing use of misleading math ...


August 19, 2015, 5:03 am, 1530756

Earlier this year, we broke the news that the Apollo Education Group (NASDAQ: APOL), the parent company of the ...


August 18, 2015, 5:03 am, 1530015

Now that we've quantified all of the streaks of two-or-more consecutive days in which the S&P 500 was either up or down for every trading day since 3 January 1950, it's time to do something with the results of our deep data ...