Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


July 18, 2014, 3:03 am, 1302884

If you are a leader, the example you set means everything.

Because it is the people in charge who have the responsibility for setting the priorities ...


July 17, 2014, 5:03 am, 1302240

Who are the major holders of debt issued by the U.S. federal government going into the summer of 2014?

The answer is presented graphically below:


July 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1301617

There are two Californias. There is one where adults (Age 20 and over) are gaining jobs at a rate that's slightly faster than was the case in the years before the December 2007-June 2009 recession in the U.S.


July 15, 2014, 5:03 am, 1300997

How many dividend paying companies are there in the S&P 500?

Through 9 July 2014, we count 425 companies among the components of the S&P 500 that currently pay cash dividends to shareholders. Our chart below shows how their number has changed since 1980, which ...


July 14, 2014, 7:03 am, 1300507

Are today's stock market investors nearsighted or farsighted?

While that may sound like some sort of psychological issue, for us, that's a real question because of a surprising turn of events last week, when investor expectations for the current quarter of 2014-Q3 suddenly shifted to be ...


July 11, 2014, 5:03 am, 1299610

Finally! For just $1,679, you too can put your own scorched earth policy into effect, but without any of the down sides! Plus, you can roast marshmallows as the Earth burns!


July 10, 2014, 5:03 am, 1298999

We like to show off by doing seemingly impossible things every once in a while....


July 9, 2014, 5:03 am, 1298430

After noting the role of health care spending in producing the largest negative shift from first to third estimate for quarterly GDP in modern U.S. history, Jim Hamilton notes the role of falling U.S. exports as the second biggest contributor to that outcome:


July 8, 2014, 5:03 am, 1297845

From 2007 through mid-2009, the federal minimum wage was increased by over 40%. Combined with other minimum wage hikes at the state and local level and low inflation in the U.S. in the years since, there has effectively been no recovery for teen jobs in ...


July 7, 2014, 5:03 am, 1297321

Welcome back from the Fourth of July holiday weekend. We've reached a point where even we don't know which way the S&P 500 is going to turn! Here's our alternative futures chart, which shows the most likely trajectory that the S&P 500 will ...