Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


August 1, 2014, 5:03 am, 1309538

Earlier this week, we wrote what was perhaps one of the most timely posts ever in the history of Political Calculations, as we discussed how we may have finally succeeded in compensating for the echo effect in our forecasting method for anticipating the future of ...


July 31, 2014, 9:03 am, 1308804

On 28 December 2013, approximately 74,000 Illinoisans who had been unemployed for more than 26 weeks but less than 73 weeks lost their unemployment insurance benefits when the federal government's emergency extended unemployment benefits program expired. Paying an average benefit of $320 per ...


July 30, 2014, 5:03 am, 1307834

What does it mean when the trends for non-farm payroll jobs and total employment in the U.S. are on two separate and diverging tracks?

We're asking that question today because of something we've observed in the data for the state of Illinois while working on a ...


July 29, 2014, 5:03 am, 1307007

Every month, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its Employment Situation report, it provides the results of two different surveys that it ...


July 28, 2014, 5:03 am, 1306275

We think we may finally have a decent handle on how to compensate for the echo effect in our forecasting of the S&P 500's future.


July 25, 2014, 5:03 am, 1305302

It was a triumphant story that was first published by the Northport Patch back on 5 August 2011. Then, the tiny community web site of the tiny town located on the northwest corner of Long Island, New York announced that then 13-year old ...


July 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1304502

Previously, we found that the worst state for jobs for teens in the U.S. is California.

But we have bad news for the teens in that state. In 2014, the worst state for job-seeking teens, California, is getting worse:


July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303879

A new noise event rattled the markets on Thursday, 17 July 2014, when news broke that a Malaysian Airlines commercial jet had been shot down over eastern Ukraine, potentially by Russian-backed separatists. That act caused stock prices to drop below the level they would otherwise ...


July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303877

What are the best and worst states for U.S. teens between the ages of 16 and 19 for finding jobs?

To find out, we turned to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment provides the data by detailed ...


July 23, 2014, 3:03 pm, 1303878

What are the odds that IRS employees deliberately targeted President Barack Obama's political opposition and have attempted to ...