Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Political Calculations


May 4, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632826

Just a visual reminder for anyone who has any confusion about what the fundamental driver of stock prices really is. The animation below shows the S&P 500's average monthly earnings per share, dividends per share and price per share in logarithmic scale since January 1950 ...


May 3, 2016, 5:03 am, 1632372

We have some good news! For the first time since October 2015, the number of U.S. firms that announced dividend cuts during a calendar month dropped below the level where we can be reasonably certain that at least part of the U.S. economy is experiencing ...


May 2, 2016, 5:03 am, 1631977

"As expected", is the answer to the question "How did the S&P 500 behave during Week 4 of April 2016?"

But for that to be expected, you would have to have known the following:

Investors entered the week mainly focused on the distant future ...


April 29, 2016, 5:03 am, 1631165

Think for a moment about the inside of your refrigerator. Have you optimally organized it for maximum cool food storage efficiency?

Don't be silly - of course you haven't! That's why Karl, the Bosch engineer, has created a YouTube video explaining what ...


April 28, 2016, 5:03 am, 1630713

Previously, we declared that the tipping point for cigarette taxes in Hawaii was on the verge of being reached, where further increases in the state's tobacco taxes would no longer be met with rising tax revenue, but would instead be met with falling tax ...


April 27, 2016, 5:03 am, 1630302

In the first quarter of 2016, the preliminary monthly data for the number and value of new home sales throughout the United States indicates that the growth of the U.S. new home market has stalled out with respect to the previous quarter.

This is true when ...


April 26, 2016, 5:03 am, 1629904

Through the end of Fiscal Year 2015, back on 30 September 2015, we estimate that the ratio of the United States' total public debt outstanding to the nation's median household income is approximately 263%. While down slightly from its peak of 267% in 2014, that ...


April 25, 2016, 5:03 am, 1629551

Through Friday, 22 April 2016, the pace at which publicly-traded U.S. companies are cutting their dividends is much higher than what was recorded at the same point of time during the first quarter of 2016.


April 22, 2016, 5:03 am, 1628968

Otto Dieffenbach has made quite a reputation for himself in developing flying drones that can be modeled after fictional characters and then turned loose in the sky. Or as he might describe it, "developing aerial images for brand enhancement".

Check out a sample ...


April 21, 2016, 5:03 am, 1628599

We have been periodically tracking the statistical trends for the number of new jobless claims in the United States, at both the national level and also at the subnational level. Today, we're going to update what we're seeing in the data.

Starting with the national ...