Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

August 29, 2016, 7:03 am, 1668336

For a market that hasn't experienced much in the way of volatility lately, Friday, 26 August 2016 was a welcome departure for observers. Unfortunately, if you only tracked the closing price of the S&P 500 from day to day, you wouldn't have noticed!

To see ...

August 26, 2016, 7:03 am, 1667794

Several weeks ago, Political Calculations launched a new series, "Examples of Junk Science", where we are specifically focusing on where flawed analysis and the misuse of data leads to the spread of false or misleading information in the fields of investing, finance and economics. ...

August 25, 2016, 7:03 am, 1667455

With so much destructive flooding in Louisiana during the past week, we couldn't help but think back to this past June, when the region around Houston, Texas experienced a tremendous amount of rainfall that also led to significant flooding and lots of property damage. ...

August 24, 2016, 5:04 am, 1667103

Every three months, just about at the time that the market's quarterly earnings season ends shortly after the midpoint of the quarter, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500.

Today, for the first time in the last seven quarters, ...

August 23, 2016, 7:03 am, 1666781

August 22, 2016, 7:03 am, 1666412

August 2016 is going to be a long month. We're three weeks into it with two more to go and already, with no sign as yet the summer doldrums in the S&P 500 are anywhere near ready to give way to volatility.

Not that there's ...

August 19, 2016, 7:03 am, 1665864

Wearable computing technology has a bad track record. Inventions like Google Glass is considered to be an epic fail by some. Meanwhile, Apple Watch has been somewhat more successful, but is still considered to be an application of ...

August 18, 2016, 9:03 am, 1665530

How much does the government benefit when new jobs are created within a community?

August 17, 2016, 9:03 am, 1665155

Previously, when we considered the psychological profile of pseudoscientists, we wondered if there wasn't an alternative checklist to the one we use for detecting junk science, but one that if followed, would lead to the opposite of junk science.

It occurred to ...

August 16, 2016, 7:03 am, 1664750

What a difference two weeks can make. Two weeks ago, our regular sampling of dividend cut announcements indicated that July 2016 was easily the best month for the U.S. economy in a long time, bordering on levels we associated with relatively healthy growth ...