May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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For a market that hasn't experienced much in the way of volatility lately, Friday, 26 August 2016 was a welcome departure for observers. Unfortunately, if you only tracked the closing price of the S&P 500 from day to day, you wouldn't have noticed!
To see ...
Several weeks ago, Political Calculations launched a new series, "Examples of Junk Science", where we are specifically focusing on where flawed analysis and the misuse of data leads to the spread of false or misleading information in the fields of investing, finance and economics. ...
With so much destructive flooding in Louisiana during the past week, we couldn't help but think back to this past June, when the region around Houston, Texas experienced a tremendous amount of rainfall that also led to significant flooding and lots of property damage. ...
Every three months, just about at the time that the market's quarterly earnings season ends shortly after the midpoint of the quarter, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500.
Today, for the first time in the last seven quarters, ...
August 2016 is going to be a long month. We're three weeks into it with two more to go and already, with no sign as yet the summer doldrums in the S&P 500 are anywhere near ready to give way to volatility.
Not that there's ...
Wearable computing technology has a bad track record. Inventions like Google Glass is considered to be an epic fail by some. Meanwhile, Apple Watch has been somewhat more successful, but is still considered to be an application of ...
Previously, when we considered the psychological profile of pseudoscientists, we wondered if there wasn't an alternative checklist to the one we use for detecting junk science, but one that if followed, would lead to the opposite of junk science.
It occurred to ...
What a difference two weeks can make. Two weeks ago, our regular sampling of dividend cut announcements indicated that July 2016 was easily the best month for the U.S. economy in a long time, bordering on levels we associated with relatively healthy growth ...