Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

October 9, 2015, 5:03 am, 1555657

People have had a very hard time waking up in the morning for a very long time, which is why alarm clocks were among the first devices ever invented. In fact, there's a pretty good argument to be made that one of the ...

October 8, 2015, 5:03 am, 1555005

On 21 September 2015, we wrote:

From a volatility standpoint, given the amount of vertical space between the likely trajectory of stock prices for investors focusing on either of these two ...

October 7, 2015, 5:03 am, 1554319

By now, we all know the stories of how the billionaires who own professional sports teams hold the cities of their teams hostage when they want to build new stadiums at public expense, threatening to move the team to another city if they don't ...

October 6, 2015, 5:03 am, 1553684

Not long ago, John Whitehead reviewed one of our posts on the topic of junk science and ...

October 5, 2015, 5:03 am, 1553116

Not long ago, we ...

October 2, 2015, 5:03 am, 1552281

Normally, we would expect to see the advocacy of the multitasking use of ordinary power tools for the purpose of food preparation put forward such people as Alton Brown. Or perhaps Red Green.

But YouTube's Handimania makes a

October 1, 2015, 5:03 am, 1551621

In 2009, after five years of extraordinary growth in its enrollment, the Apollo Education Group (NASDAQ: APOL), the parent company of the University of Phoenix, recognized that the days of booming enrollment in the Associate's degree programs it had launched in September 2004 were ...

September 30, 2015, 5:03 am, 1551050

In 2013, poor Americans received the equivalent of $412 billion worth of welfare benefits from the U.S. government, which it raised through a combination of taxes, fees and borrowing. The chart below details how that breaks down among the federal government's various welfare ...

September 29, 2015, 5:03 am, 1550489

In several major U.S. cities, police are beginning to use math originally developed to predict earthquakes to fight crime. Or more specifically, the kinds of crime that occur in either series or sprees that tends to be concentrated within a defined ...

September 28, 2015, 9:03 am, 1549983

For the S&P 500, the week ending 25 September 2015 went pretty much as well expected, as the index' value remained well within the range we indicated it most likely be a week ago.