Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


September 2, 2014, 5:03 am, 1327657

Coming over a century after many of the original events, we thought it was about time we got around to revisiting the history of the S&P 500, or rather, its predecessor indices and components, during the era of the First World War.

Our table below presents ...


August 29, 2014, 5:03 am, 1326433

What if you could hack your brain to boost your IQ? Would you do it? How can you do it?

Garth Sundem, author of


August 28, 2014, 5:03 am, 1325740

Now that we've established what the relative purchasing power of a dollar is in each of the United States, we're going to apply that ...


August 27, 2014, 5:03 am, 1325160

It's a mistake to treat housing prices as if they're a function of time. They're not. But we're going to treat them that way today to illustrate how differently the trend in median new home sale prices has changed since institutional investors ...


August 26, 2014, 5:03 am, 1324436

The Tax Foundation has provided a wonderful illustration of the relative cost of living in each of the United States:


August 25, 2014, 5:03 am, 1323855

We're trying something new with how we present our forecast alternative trajectories and the actual trajectory of the S&P 500, in that we've trimmed out the seemingly irrelevant alternative futures for 2014-Q3 and 2015-Q1 and overlaid our rebaselined trajectory for 2015-Q2 (which compensates for "echoes" in ...


August 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1322921

In a long overdue development, Whooshh Innovations has developed a pneumatic transport system for salmon, faciliting their migration upriver around natural and manmade obstacles.

Dams are one ...


August 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1322164

During the December 2007-June 2009 recession, the number of jobs at the margins of the U.S. economy increased significantly through the period of major job loss ending in December 2009, even though total employment and the number of Americans employed by non-farm establishments fell. ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1321480

Once a quarter, about halfway through, we take a snapshot of the earnings per share that investors expect to earn in the S&P 500 over the next several quarters. Since our previous snapshot in mid-May 2014, the earnings outlook for investors has eroded ...


August 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1320837

Two weeks ago, USA Today's Adam Shell asked: "Is it just a pullback, coming correction or beginning of bear market?"

One week ago, David Rosenberg asked: "Market correction? Was that it?"

So what was it really?

Would you believe a brief