Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

October 1, 2014, 5:03 am, 1344165

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September 30, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1343957

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September 29, 2014, 5:03 am, 1342745

How many of you recall what we wrote at the beginning of September 2014 about the dynamics of a stock market where investors are shifting their focus from one point in time in the future to another?

September 26, 2014, 5:03 am, 1341632

When you were a kid, did you ever wrap your bike around a tree?

You know what we mean. You were out riding around and having fun with a bunch of your friends, and then did something meant to impress them that, in retrospect, turned ...

September 25, 2014, 5:03 am, 1340970

Earlier this week, we indicated that we were about to get our first glimpse of the expected future for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share for the third quarter of 2015.

We now have it! Here's the snapshot of the amount of ...

September 24, 2014, 5:03 am, 1340272

Last week, shortly after the U.S. Census Bureau released its data on the distribution of income in the United States for 2013, we generated our

September 23, 2014, 5:03 am, 1339580

In previously analyzing what broke the job market in the United States, we pointed to the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (more popularly known as "Obamacare") and offered a hypothesis for why the number of part time jobs in the ...

September 22, 2014, 5:03 am, 1338922

Although the Federal Reserve met, issued a statement, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen held a press conference last week, none of it meaningfully affected the trajectory of stock prices, which continued to behave consistently with investors focused on the future quarter of ...

September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337727

Are you an environmentally-minded person who enjoys cold beer, but feels guilty about using all that electricity to keep beer cool in your refrigerator? Wouldn't you be better off if you could keep your beer cold without drawing any power from the grid at all? ...

September 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1336989

After looking at the overall history of the net change in the number of full time and part time jobs in the U.S. since 1968, we had a question that relates to the job market today: What broke the job market in the United ...