Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Political Calculations


January 28, 2015, 7:03 pm, 1411825

Going into Wednesday, 28 January 2015, investors had believed that the Fed was likely to indicate that the U.S. economy was performing solidly enough that it would begin to implement its plan to hike short term interest rates before the end of 2015-Q2 in June 2015. ...


January 28, 2015, 5:03 am, 1411274

In terms of affordability, 2014 became the worst year on record for the median price of new homes sold in the United States.

The chart below, showing the relationship between the trailing twelve month average of median new home sale prices and the trailing twelve month ...


January 27, 2015, 5:03 am, 1410492

From our perspective, the most important and useful part of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is its assumption that asset prices change quickly to reflect the impact of new information upon the future expectations of investors.

So what does the ability of investors to ...


January 26, 2015, 3:03 am, 1409691

Can physics explain what's wrong with Tom Brady's balls?

We're going to find out. Picking up ...


January 23, 2015, 3:03 am, 1408538

There are more Boeing 737s flying in the skies of Earth today than any other model of commercial air transport. Back in 2000, to keep up with demand, the company began producing 737s at the then record rate of 1 per ...


January 22, 2015, 3:03 am, 1407753

How much of a change in global oil prices can be attributed to changes ...


January 21, 2015, 10:26 am, 1407362

With President Obama's 2015 State of the Union address now upon us, we thought we'd follow up on a 2011 post, which showed that the post-recession jobs recovery in the U.S. wasn't quite as good as claimed by the President's ...


January 20, 2015, 9:03 am, 1407132

In the process of testing out and selecting a new color scheme for displaying complex data on a Microsoft Excel chart, we somehow managed to accurately forecast the overall trajectory of stock prices last week. Over a week


January 19, 2015, 3:03 am, 1406544

Purple and orange!

The survey we conducted last week as to what color scheme ...


January 16, 2015, 3:03 am, 1405483

Is your home complete today?

HT: Core77, who celebrated the artistic achievements ...