Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


December 9, 2016, 5:03 am, 1701155

As promised, we're taking a closer look at the volume of exports of soybeans from the United States to China today, where we find that 2016 is on track to break all previous records. The following chart reveals what we found when we ...


December 8, 2016, 9:03 am, 1700866

In October 2016, the United States saw the value of the goods and exports that it exports to China explode upward to the highest value on record since October-December 2013.

We can see that sudden surge in our chart tracking the year over year ...


December 6, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1700372

The history of invention is not a story of orderly, incremental progress from Point A to Point B. All too often, the technologies we take for granted today came about in fits and starts, where great progress came after prolonged periods of relative stagnation. ...


December 5, 2016, 5:03 am, 1699717

"Pretty much as expected" is the short, sweet, tweetable (if anybody other than Donald Trump still does that), summary to describe the S&P 500 during Week 5 of November 2016.

Or should we be calling it "Week 1 of December 2016"? Although we've ...


December 2, 2016, 9:03 am, 1699196

In November 2016, 29 U.S. firms announced they would be cutting their dividend payments to investors. The month marks the 37th consecutive month in which the number of dividend cuts has exceeded a threshold that is consistent with recessionary conditions being present in the U.S. economy, ...


December 1, 2016, 9:03 am, 1698868

Today's example of junk science is special in that we're focusing on the story of an individual who contributed to the exposure of the false science that is bringing down one of the most successful business startups of the last decade: Theranos.

If you


November 30, 2016, 5:03 am, 1698440

We're well into what might be described as the third phase of the second U.S. housing bubble.

That might seem like a bold statement, but it's something that really becomes evident when you track the trailing twelve month averages of median new home sale prices against ...


November 29, 2016, 3:03 am, 1698061

We're going to ask a question today that has many answers. But before we ask it, consider the following chart, which shows the sales (or revenues) per share of the firms that make up the S&P 500 index for each quarter from 2000-Q1 through a ...


November 28, 2016, 5:03 am, 1697720

We're catching up with two weeks worth of action in the S&P 500, so let's start with what stood out during Week 3 of November 2016.

First and foremost, our prediction from five weeks ago appears to have held throughout nearly every trading day ...


November 25, 2016, 3:03 am, 1697238

Following the national holiday of Thanksgiving on Thursday, Black Friday represents the busiest shopping day for U.S. consumers, many of whom will take advantage of a second day off work to start their Christmas shopping.

But what if money is tight this year? ...