Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


August 22, 2014, 9:03 am, 1322921

In a long overdue development, Whooshh Innovations has developed a pneumatic transport system for salmon, faciliting their migration upriver around natural and manmade obstacles.

Dams are one ...


August 21, 2014, 5:03 am, 1322164

During the December 2007-June 2009 recession, the number of jobs at the margins of the U.S. economy increased significantly through the period of major job loss ending in December 2009, even though total employment and the number of Americans employed by non-farm establishments fell. ...


August 20, 2014, 5:03 am, 1321480

Once a quarter, about halfway through, we take a snapshot of the earnings per share that investors expect to earn in the S&P 500 over the next several quarters. Since our previous snapshot in mid-May 2014, the earnings outlook for investors has eroded ...


August 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1320837

Two weeks ago, USA Today's Adam Shell asked: "Is it just a pullback, coming correction or beginning of bear market?"

One week ago, David Rosenberg asked: "Market correction? Was that it?"

So what was it really?

Would you believe a brief


August 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1320123

Once again, the change in the growth rate of stock prices has re-converged with the change in the growth rate of dividends expected in 2015-Q2 in our standard baseline model of how stock prices work. Mind the notes in the margin in the latest update ...


August 15, 2014, 5:03 am, 1318996

"If you build it, he will come."

That line from the film Field of Dreams is one of the most memorable in movie history.

The story told in the motion picture is about an ...


August 14, 2014, 5:03 am, 1318243

Going by the year-over-year growth rate of of the value of trade between the United States and China, which we've adjusted to account for the changing currency exchange rate for each nation's currency, it would appear that the U.S. economy rebounded in June 2014, while China's ...


August 13, 2014, 5:03 am, 1317548

Félicitations à notre lecteur à Metz! Vous l'avez fait à partir du début. Où allons-nous aller?

Ce n'est pas souvent que nous avons quelqu'un de bien lire toutes 2,500+ de nos messages. Nous espérons que vous ...


August 12, 2014, 5:03 am, 1316729

The number of U.S. companies acting to cut their dividends during July 2014 remained elevated at 15, down slightly from the 16 U.S. companies that took similar actions in June 2014, as recessionary conditions continue to be present in the U.S. economy.


August 11, 2014, 5:03 am, 1315899

We didn't set out to solve a mystery, but once again, it appears that we have.

Specifically, ...