Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

April 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1257478

Maybe not as good as the alternate ending for Gravity, but not bad either....

Have a great weekend!

April 17, 2014, 5:03 am, 1256821

What happens when the long-term unemployed are suddenly cut off from being able to cash in on the federal government's extended unemployment benefits program?

That's the case for ...

April 16, 2014, 5:03 am, 1256185

According to preliminary data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the trailing twelve month average of median sale prices for new homes fell in February 2014 after peaking a month earlier.

The preliminary new home sale price for February 2014 was $261,800, which was up from ...

April 15, 2014, 5:03 am, 1255569

Suppose you're one of the millions of Americans for whom it makes much more financial sense to pay the Obamacare tax than it does to buy ...

April 14, 2014, 5:03 am, 1255031

By now, most of our readers will know that we anticipated last week's stock market "correction" and that we communicated it weeks ago. Our updated alternate futures chart below confirms how closely the real world followed our forecast:

April 11, 2014, 5:03 am, 1254115

In less than a week, the deadline for filing for 2013's federal income taxes will be upon us. That makes this a very good time to find out how many pages it takes to explain the U.S. federal tax code!

Our source for this data ...

April 10, 2014, 5:03 am, 1253472

If you wanted one word to describe the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2014, the word 'tractionless' comes immediately to mind.

The latest real evidence for that assessment comes not from the latest jobs report, which many found disappointing but instead from ...

April 9, 2014, 5:03 am, 1252774

Ben Casselman, the youthful chief economics writer of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog, describes the state of the jobs recovery:

After more than six years, the U.S. private sector has ...

April 8, 2014, 5:03 am, 1252170

According to the Obama administration, 7.1 million people signed up for health insurance coverage through the federal and state-government run Affordable Care Act marketplaces. By our math, one million of those signups would appear to have come in the final week ...

April 7, 2014, 5:03 am, 1251631

There's no better way for us to make point we wish to make today except to animate our alternate futures chart, where we've taken each of the versions of the chart that we've posted since 10 March 2014 and run through 4 April 2014: