Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Political Calculations

February 9, 2016, 7:03 am, 1606689

Yesterday, the news broke that the Apollo Education Group ...

February 8, 2016, 7:03 am, 1606273

At the end of the last week of January 2016, stock prices rallied on the news that the Bank of Japan would implement negative interest rates in that country and that the Fed was likely to back off its plans to hike interest rates again before ...

February 5, 2016, 5:03 am, 1605603

According to new jobless claims, economic distress within the U.S. has spread outside of the oil patch states, as what had been a trend of improvement stoked by falling oil prices has apparently come to a clear end.

Here is how we know. Thanks to ...

February 4, 2016, 7:03 am, 1605211

People who suffer from sleep apnea don't have very many good options to cope with the ...

February 3, 2016, 7:03 am, 1604816

What are the odds that the winner of an political contest would be determined by their ability to win six, and just six, separate coin flips?

CBS Marketwatch details the drama from Iowa:

February 2, 2016, 7:03 am, 1604391

Just one week ago, we observed that the pace of dividend cuts being announced in the first quarter of 2016 was "slower than at the same point of time in the first quarter of 2015. Which is an early indication that the U.S. ...

February 1, 2016, 7:03 am, 1604006

What if you had advance knowledge of how the U.S. stock market would behave in the upcoming week? Or at the very least, you were told by someone who works in the future exact how the market would respond to a given set of circumstances ...

January 29, 2016, 5:03 am, 1603335

We realize that the latest edition of Star Wars is all the rage these days, but do you remember the movie Avatar? The one with all the tall blue people running around the planet Pandora? The

January 28, 2016, 9:03 am, 1602901

Did you catch the headline in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about new home sales? In case you missed it, here it is, along with our excerpt of the first, second and final paragraphs from the story:

January 27, 2016, 7:03 am, 1602441

Last June, we took on an unusual project, where we extracted the advertised sale price of a single iconic can of Campbell's condensed tomato soup from dozens of newspapers and more modern day sources for each month from January 1898 through the present.

Today, ...