Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Political Calculations

November 27, 2015, 9:03 am, 1582700

Today is Black Friday, 2015 - the proverbial day that, if you believe U.S. retailers, enough Americans turn out to the ...

November 26, 2015, 11:03 am, 1582515

How did the turkey become the centerpiece for the United States' national dinner? Andrew F. Smith ...

November 25, 2015, 9:03 am, 1581885

Here at Political Calculations, we sometimes live up to the "political" part of our name by taking on, shall we say, delicate topics, where by delicate we occationally mean "really personal".

And what can be more personal than addressing the proverbial turkey on the ...

November 24, 2015, 3:03 pm, 1581459

Last Thanksgiving, we presented a chart featuring a spurious correlation between the average live weight of U.S. farm raised turkeys and the MSCI World Stock Market Index, in which we showed how U.S. turkeys predict global stock market crashes. Here's what we wrote ...

November 23, 2015, 9:03 pm, 1581020

Today, we're going to consider the counterargument to the data we presented yesterday, in which we showed that the population of farm-raised turkeys peaked at 302.7 million in 1996 and has fallen steadily since. Or rather, through 2014, as 2015 saw the population ...

November 22, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1580449

In 2015, the estimated population of turkeys raised on U.S. farms fell to its lowest level in 29 years, dropping nationally by 4% to 228 million. That figure is down by nearly 75 million since the population of U.S. turkeys raised on U.S. farms peaked ...

November 20, 2015, 11:03 am, 1579694

Prompted by the release of the minutes of the FOMC's October 2015 meeting, investors shifted their forward looking focus back to 2015-Q4, as it now appears the Fed will finally follow through on its previously empty threats to begin hiking short term interest rates ...

November 19, 2015, 11:03 pm, 1579430

What's the preliminary estimate of the amount of debt that the U.S. government owed to all its creditors as of the end of its 2015 fiscal year on 30 September 2015?

That's not such an easy question to answer, because at the time, the amount of ...

November 19, 2015, 11:03 am, 1579015

Just over a decade ago, we discovered the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' ...

November 18, 2015, 5:03 am, 1578195

What effect has the Federal Reserve's previous Quantitative Easing (QE) programs had on the acceleration of private debt in the U.S. economy?

That's an important question to answer because of the remarkable correlation between the nation's real economic growth rate and the ...