Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Political Calculations


September 19, 2014, 5:03 am, 1337727

Are you an environmentally-minded person who enjoys cold beer, but feels guilty about using all that electricity to keep beer cool in your refrigerator? Wouldn't you be better off if you could keep your beer cold without drawing any power from the grid at all? ...


September 18, 2014, 5:03 am, 1336989

After looking at the overall history of the net change in the number of full time and part time jobs in the U.S. since 1968, we had a question that relates to the job market today: What broke the job market in the United ...


September 17, 2014, 5:03 am, 1336255

We have a project underway where we're looking at the net change in the number of Americans who work as full time or part time employees over different periods of time. The chart below shows all the data the Bureau of Labor Statistics ...


September 16, 2014, 1:03 pm, 1335869


September 15, 2014, 5:03 am, 1334885

Because it is always fun to make fun of poorly timed stock market-related headlines, we thought we'd start this week by sharing an instant classic, which we captured for posterity on the Wayback Machine on Tuesday, 9 September 2014:

Morning ...


September 12, 2014, 5:03 am, 1333710

While many were disappointed by the lackluster jobs numbers recorded in the August 2014 employment situation report, perhaps the most disappointed of all would be the teens and young adults (Ages 16-24) who were effectively replaced in the U.S. job market by adults (Age ...


September 11, 2014, 5:03 am, 1333016

Is there a bull or bear market for new homes in the U.S.?

That question arises because other analysts are starting to raise red flags regarding the state of the U.S. new housing market, including Dave Kranzler, who argues that the stocks of U.S. ...


September 10, 2014, 5:03 am, 1332317

Evidence continues to mount that all is not well for the new home sales market in the United States. Now that we're armed with the most recent data available for median new home sale prices and median household income through the month of July 2014, ...


September 9, 2014, 5:03 am, 1331571

Another month, another 15 companies announcing that they'll be paying less out in dividends in the future, making August 2014 the tenth consecutive month in which the number of companies acting to cut their dividends has been elevated above the "Recession Line":


September 8, 2014, 5:03 am, 1330871

Tyler Durden pays attention to the things that billionaire investors say and ...