Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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New Economist

"Musings from a London-based economist and policy wonk”

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773377
I have a number of economist friends and former colleagues who are looking for work, so I thought it might be helpful to post a 'job of the week'. They will mostly be senior, and mostly based in London - so apologies to my overseas readers and to more junior ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773378
I'm back again ..and would like to kick off by highlighting a recent and very welcome initiative by Christian Zimmerman and colleagues at the St Louis Federal Reserve: According to the email I received this week: lives at and aggregates blog posts that discuss economic research. The ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773379
Spaniards vote today, with opinion polls pointing to a change of government. Incoming conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces unsustainably high sovereign bond yields, a depressed economy most likely sliding back into recession and, at 21.5%, the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone. While the European Commission's autumn economic forecasts, ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773380
Behavioural economics has blossomed in recent years, to the point that the Fall 2011 edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives can, along with articles on neuronomics, genetics and retirement, include a fascinating 20 page review paper on incentives. That's not surprising; a lot of people have taken an interest ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773376
Princeton emeritus professor Avinash Dixit is always worth reading, even when he is speculating about the economy over the next hundred years. Likening economic forecasting to weather forecasting (plenty of caveats and uncertainty), his approach is suitably sceptical. Here's how he kicks off: At least one prediction can be made ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773375
This morning the Office for National Statistics published preliminary estimates of an -0.2% fall in March quarter 2012 GDP. This follows a -0.3% contraction in Q4, so pulling the UK into a ‘double dip’ recession (the first since the 1970s). Below are some frequently asked questions, and my response. Was ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773372
In Victorian Britain child labour was cheap and plentiful. Few today know much about the era; but they should. Next week Jane Humphries, a Professor of Economic History at Oxford University, is due to give a seminar at the Paris School of Economics about her work on the topic. She ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773373
Edinburgh-based fund manager Standard Life Investments is looking for two economists. According to their vacancy posting: The aim is to have two or more economists, one to focus on OECD economies, especially the UK and Europe, and one to focus on emerging markets, especially China and Asia. These would coordinate ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773374
A lot of interesting newspaper articles and blog posts on the Q1 UK GDP results have been published since my post earlier today. Here are links to seven of the best, along with an excerpt from each: 1. NYT columnist and uber econoblogger Paul Krugman (@NYTimeskrugman) lambasts the UK Government's ...

September 12, 2017, 1:17 pm, 1773371
I rarely give academic economist jobs much attention, having chosen a different career path. But one plum job did catch my eye recently. The European University Institute are looking for a Director for their Programme on Global Economics: The Programme on ‘Global Economics’ will focus on the connected fields of ...