May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
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Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295061
Spaniards vote today, with opinion polls pointing to a change of government. Incoming conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces unsustainably high sovereign bond yields, a depressed economy most likely sliding back into recession and, at 21.5%, the highest unemployment rate in the Eurozone. While the European Commission's autumn economic forecasts, ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295062
Behavioural economics has blossomed in recent years, to the point that the Fall 2011 edition of the Journal of Economic Perspectives can, along with articles on neuronomics, genetics and retirement, include a fascinating 20 page review paper on incentives. That's not surprising; a lot of people have taken an interest ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295063
For various reasons I have been unable to blog for almost three years. But now I'm back. It would be an understatement to say I have missed a lot. Not only the Great Recession and the not-so-great recovery, but all the fun and games in the Eurozone as well. Regulators ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295064
For those hoping that credit conditions might gradually be returning to normal, today's IMF Global Financial Stability Report market update contained a stark warning: Risks to financial stability have intensified since October 2008. Macroeconomic risks have risen as global growth has fallen precipitously alongside a sharp slowdown of global trade. ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295060
I'm back again ..and would like to kick off by highlighting a recent and very welcome initiative by Christian Zimmerman and colleagues at the St Louis Federal Reserve: EconAcademics.org According to the email I received this week: EconAcademics.org lives at http://econacademics.org/ and aggregates blog posts that discuss economic research. The ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295059
I have a number of economist friends and former colleagues who are looking for work, so I thought it might be helpful to post a 'job of the week'. They will mostly be senior, and mostly based in London - so apologies to my overseas readers and to more junior ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295056
A lot of interesting newspaper articles and blog posts on the Q1 UK GDP results have been published since my post earlier today. Here are links to seven of the best, along with an excerpt from each: 1. NYT columnist and uber econoblogger Paul Krugman (@NYTimeskrugman) lambasts the UK Government's ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295057
This morning the Office for National Statistics published preliminary estimates of an -0.2% fall in March quarter 2012 GDP. This follows a -0.3% contraction in Q4, so pulling the UK into a ‘double dip’ recession (the first since the 1970s). Below are some frequently asked questions, and my response. Was ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295058
Princeton emeritus professor Avinash Dixit is always worth reading, even when he is speculating about the economy over the next hundred years. Likening economic forecasting to weather forecasting (plenty of caveats and uncertainty), his approach is suitably sceptical. Here's how he kicks off: At least one prediction can be made ...
July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1295055
Edinburgh-based fund manager Standard Life Investments is looking for two economists. According to their vacancy posting: The aim is to have two or more economists, one to focus on OECD economies, especially the UK and Europe, and one to focus on emerging markets, especially China and Asia. These would coordinate ...