Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Globalization Institute

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776189
Given how little British bureaucrats and our front-bench-seeking politicians take notice of the public, I'd welcome almost any tool with which to harangue them. And there's one that some of our American cousins are using that I'd love to see imported into Britain. DIY Democracy is an iPhone app lets Americans hit back ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776190
“To be born an Englishman,” Cecil Rhodes once claimed, “is to win first prize in the lottery of life.” These days, Mark Steyn says the prize goes to Americans, and whenever I think of Westminster, I can't help thinking he might be on to something. Our supposedly centre-Right Government supports ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776191
I was having a beer with Nigel Farage recently when he came out with a most remarkable statement. "UKIP," he declared, "will win the next European election." Win? Win? Certainly, like most Conservatives, I’d love a UKIP victory if it gives us some chance of ending our disastrous membership of ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776192
Here’s some news that’s guaranteed to upset the Eurocrats. A just-retired European auditor, Maarten Engwirda, has denounced the European Commission. Speaking to a Dutch newspaper, he alleges that the Court of Auditors were pressured into “watering down” their criticism of the EU’s accounts and says there was a "culture of ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776188
This is one of the most shockingly wasteful acts by a British government in history. The Coalition has started to chop the wings off nine brand-new Nimrod jets, which cost £445 million each to build and have never seen active service. And the decision threatens our national security: because there ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776187
There’s something seriously broken about the European Union’s competition department, which seems more motivated by jealousy of American companies than helping consumers. It has now forced Intel, which last year announced the takeover of an anti-virus company, to keep its computer chipsets "open" to rivals' anti-virus software. Eurocrats are spinning ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776184
Picture the scene. The Chief Operating Officer of a major asset management firm gets so wound up by European regulators that he decides, in a personal capacity, to call for EU withdrawal. He mentions this to other members of his board, who recoil with horror and forbid him from opening ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776185
I don’t know about you, but I have lost all faith in the Bank of England. The economists on its Monetary Policy Committee act like modern witch doctors, who think that if they examine enough graphs and perform the right computer modelling, they can manage inflation and smooth out the ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776186
I hate to attack someone as fascinating as Donald Trump, but this is one billionaire who should be kept out of the White House at all costs. Getting into that building seems to be his objective, according to American commentators who have noticed his surprise appearance at yesterday’s Conservative Political ...

September 15, 2017, 4:46 pm, 1776183
Just as many Tories were becoming fed up with Cameron, our PM has done three things that should put smiles on their faces. First, he gave the green light to backbenchers to vote down a ruling of the European Court of Human Rights, by allowing a free vote. This, I ...