May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
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Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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December 1, 2015, 10:04 am, 1584278
(December 1, 2015 09:01 AM, by Scott Sumner) My book on the Great Depression is officially published today. Looking back on the long project, I see 6 themes that have been there throughout my research career (which began in 1986, with this project.) Never reason from a... (1 ...
November 30, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1583912
(December 1, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Here's how Dominic Lieven's The End of Tsarist Russia dissects Balkan politics in the years right before World War I:Here Macedonia remained the key focus of instability. The commitment of the new regime in Constantinople to centralization and Turkish nationalism... (0 ...
November 30, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1583885
(November 30, 2015 08:49 PM, by David Henderson) Rising demand for urban living by the elite could be met largely by increasing supply. There's still room to build, even in New York, especially upward. Yet while there is something of a building boom in the city, it's far... (2 COMMENTS)
November 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1583782
(November 30, 2015 02:08 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Can we have "socialism, with an iPad"? This is the picture the Labour Shadow Chancellor recently used, with the aim of providing a somewhat modernized, albeit only symbolically, face for Jeremy Corbyn's economic proposals. Labour-leaning columnist Zoe Williams argues that... (0 COMMENTS)
November 30, 2015, 12:04 am, 1583349
(November 30, 2015 12:14 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Lieven's The End of Tsarist Russia subtly proposes a novel theory of Russia's disastrous entry into World War I: Millions died to spare Russia's elites from feelings of humiliation. First, Lieven sets the stage:Revolution at home had undermined the Russian... (1 COMMENTS)
November 29, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1583315
(November 29, 2015 07:08 PM, by David Henderson) When I posted last week about monetary economist Bill Poole's incorrect claim that the Fed Reserve sets the Federal Funds rate, a number of commenters objected that my claim was trivial. Most argued that Poole's usage was close enough to... (1 COMMENTS)
November 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1583266
(November 29, 2015 01:32 PM, by Scott Sumner) If you have been paying attention to the debate over public policy, you may have noticed that the GOP has moved even further to the right in recent decades, and the (formerly more moderate) Democrats have moved even more dramatically... (0 COMMENTS)
November 28, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1583053
(November 28, 2015 02:20 PM, by David Henderson) However, increased consumption among youths leads to negative externalities. Raising the share of adults registered as medical marijuana patients by one percentage point increases the prevalence of recent marijuana use among adolescents and young adults by 5-6% and generates negative... (7 COMMENTS)
November 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1582904
(November 27, 2015 04:21 PM, by Scott Sumner) In the past I've been critical of Paul Krugman's approach to austerity and business cycles. For instance, he argued that austerity in the UK led to slow growth in real GDP. I countered that RGDP is not the right variable... (0 COMMENTS)
November 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1582831
(November 27, 2015 03:19 PM, by David Henderson) In my Executive MBA economics class a little over a week ago, I presented the following definition of a negative externality: A cost borne by someone who is not party to the decision that caused the cost. Then I asked... (1 COMMENTS)