May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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November 26, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1378588
(November 26, 2014 07:35 PM, by David Henderson) Most mornings that I don't teach, I go out early to the local Safeway, where there's a Starbuck's, and get my wife a Grande non-fat latte. Tip to men who want a long-term successful marriage: If there are things you... (0 COMMENTS)
November 26, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1378408
(November 26, 2014 01:04 PM, by David Henderson) The problem starts with the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), the federal agency that sets prices for the medical services of Medicare patients. CMS is really a giant central-planning agency. It sets hundreds of thousands of prices. What... (0 COMMENTS)
November 26, 2014, 10:04 am, 1378326
(November 26, 2014 09:31 AM, by Bryan Caplan) John Cochrane's grumpy about the state of behavioral political economy. From his review of Schnellenbach and Schubert's recent literature review: I came away horribly disappointed. Not with the paper, but with the state of the literature that the authors ably summarize.... (0 COMMENTS)
November 25, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1377806
(November 25, 2014 02:32 PM, by Scott Sumner) Izabella Kaminska has a few thoughts on free banking: This week I strayed into the absolutist world of free-banking enthusiasts. Now, it's not like I haven't come across these guys before -- they lurk everywhere -- but this week I... (2 COMMENTS)
November 25, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1377646
(November 25, 2014 10:15 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Argentina officially has near-open borders. At least on paper, you only need an employer or family member to sponsor you. The country isn't as quite First World, but with per-capita GDP around $15,000, Argentina would be a huge step up... (0 COMMENTS)
November 25, 2014, 8:04 am, 1377502
(November 25, 2014 07:00 AM, by Scott Sumner) David Henderson and Tyler Cowen have linked to an interesting interview with Jean Tirole, the newest Nobel laureate in economics: "We haven't succeeded in France to undertake the labour market reforms that are similar to those in Germany, Scandinavia and... (0 COMMENTS)
November 24, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1377226
(November 25, 2014 12:22 AM, by Bryan Caplan) While I still harbor doubts about implementation, Obama's recent executive order on immigration exceeds my wildest hopes from two months ago. Yet to be honest, I'm having trouble feeling thankful. Not because I'm afraid he's "undermined the rule of law." ... (4 COMMENTS)
November 24, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1377008
(November 24, 2014 12:50 PM, by David Henderson) Robert P. Murphy, one of the economists who writes frequently for Econlib, has published a number of pieces on the "tax interaction effect." He has recently published another that is well worth reading. Before getting to his article, here's some... (1 COMMENTS)
November 24, 2014, 12:04 am, 1376615
(November 24, 2014 03:11 AM, by David Henderson) Mexican Justice Department personnel are disguising themselves as U.S. Marines to take part in armed raids against drug suspects in the United States, according to people familiar with the matter, an escalation of Mexican involvement in battling drug cartels that... (1 COMMENTS)
November 23, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1376492
(November 23, 2014 12:03 PM, by David Henderson) When L'Affaire Gruber began two weeks ago, Tyler Cowen challenged us to stick to discussing Gruber's economics rather than his personal failings. I took up the challenge here, pointing out that Gruber's willingness to mislead could explain what looked like... (2 COMMENTS)