Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

February 8, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1606399
(February 8, 2016 11:59 AM, by David Henderson) I'm presently working my way through, and enjoying, Robert J. Gordon's magnum opus, The Rise and Fall of American Growth. I'm reviewing it for Regulation and already, just 30 pages in, I'm seeing some problems. Arnold Kling highlighted a paragraph... (3 ...

February 8, 2016, 2:04 am, 1606232
(February 8, 2016 12:35 AM, by David Henderson) On Monday, February 8, I will be giving a talk at the University of Toronto. Topic: An Economist's Case for a Non-Interventionist Foreign Policy Time: 3:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. Location: Croft Chapter House The public is welcome, but you... (0 ...

February 8, 2016, 12:04 am, 1606219
(February 8, 2016 12:04 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Barely two years ago, Tyler Cowen and I agreed to the following bet:...U.S. unemployment will never fall below 5% during the next twenty years.  If the rate falls below 5% before September 1, 2033, he immediately owes me $10.  Otherwise,... (0 ...

February 7, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1606198
(February 7, 2016 05:55 PM, by David Henderson) I gave a talk yesterday at a Fraser Institute event in Toronto. The luncheon speaker, neuro-economist Paul Zak, did a great job talking about oxytocin and its role in our systems. He started out beautifully, contrasting Thomas Hobbes's view of... (2 ...

February 7, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1606177
(February 7, 2016 01:05 PM, by Scott Sumner) People like to think in terms of stories: It's a movie classic. The lovers are out for a walk when a villain dashes out of his house and starts fighting the man. The woman takes refuge in the house; having... (1 ...

February 7, 2016, 8:04 am, 1606113
(February 7, 2016 06:37 AM, by Emily Skarbek) Often economists want to isolate questions of public debt and analyse these issues as if public choice considerations weren't at play. Perhaps less studied are the ways in which debt practices can systematically exert pressure on formal political institutions. But... (0 ...

February 6, 2016, 8:04 am, 1605983
(February 6, 2016 07:25 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) A well-known economic journalist, Hugo Dixon, published an op-ed in the New York Times on "How to make capitalism more appealing". I wholeheartedly agree with one of his points: "The classic left-wing response to the perceived unfairness of capitalism has... (0 ...

February 5, 2016, 10:04 am, 1605700
(February 5, 2016 09:49 AM, by Scott Sumner) James Bullard has a Powerpoint presentation on NeoFisherian economics. It concludes with 8 bullet points; here is the first: Policymaker conventional wisdom and NK theory both suggest low nominal rates should cause inflation to rise. Is this actually what they... (0 ...

February 4, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1605362
(February 4, 2016 02:58 PM, by David Henderson) Here's the link. I will also be giving a talk at St. John's on Wednesday night but I don't have the link for that yet.... (1 COMMENTS)

February 4, 2016, 2:04 am, 1605165
(February 4, 2016 12:28 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Via email, Easterly tells me that their "distance from the equator" variable is "the ratio of degrees of latitude to 90 degrees."  So what do their results imply about the net effect of immigration?  Let's return to their key table,... (0 ...