Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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May 27, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1751182
(May 27, 2017 01:09 PM, by Scott Sumner) There's been a lot of recent talk about increasing federal spending on infrastructure. In my view this misses the point. There are two effective ways to get more infrastructure; cost control and increased saving. Here's Matt Yglesias: Mass transit construction... (0 COMMENTS)


May 25, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1750804
(May 25, 2017 07:07 PM, by David Henderson) Alex Tabarrok narrates a very good video on the Great Depression. It's called "Understanding the Great Depression." In it, he applies an aggregate demand/aggregate supply framework and puts most of what happened in that framework. I have two criticisms, but... (1 COMMENTS)


May 25, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1750768
(May 25, 2017 03:28 PM, by Scott Sumner) In the comment section of a recent post, Thomas Hutcheson and I discussed what would happen if there were a financial crisis without tight money (defined as sharply falling NGDP growth.) It's not easy to find examples, because financial crises... (0 COMMENTS)


May 25, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1750726
(May 25, 2017 01:57 PM, by Bryan Caplan) In the last two years, there's been an avalanche of news on the "rise of nationalism."  I find this narrative deeply aggravating.  My critics - even a colleague or two - say it's because I'm in denial over the painful... (0 COMMENTS)


May 25, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1750687
(May 25, 2017 11:22 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) John Cochrane took part in a debate on Italy and the euro, hosted by Il Sole 24 Ore, Italy's premier financial daily. The debate was promoted by Luigi Zingales. Most of my friends thought it was not a great idea,... (1 COMMENTS)


May 24, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1750469
(May 24, 2017 04:04 PM, by David Henderson) On agriculture, China reiterated a promise that it has broken in the past to let in more beef. Previously, we, as reciprocity, had been withholding publication of a permissive rule on Chinese poultry, but we have now relented. Advantage... (2 COMMENTS)


May 24, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1750432
(May 24, 2017 02:46 PM, by Bryan Caplan) I recently spent a month reading through the vast empirical literature on trust.  A simple survey question - usually along the lines of "Can most people be trusted?" - seems to predict many good social outcomes.  What most interests me,... (2 COMMENTS)


May 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1750318
(May 24, 2017 10:45 AM, by Scott Sumner) Many people anthropomorphize the public, and talk about "the public" having an opinion, just as you or I might have an opinion. I view this as a big mistake. Elsewhere I have argued that polls on policy questions are very... (1 COMMENTS)


May 23, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1750087
(May 23, 2017 03:02 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Next month, I'll collect my final payment from my Dependent Care Flexible Spending Account - and I couldn't be happier.  I hate filling out paperwork.  Though it only takes a couple hours to save thousands of dollars, I resent the... (0 COMMENTS)


May 23, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1750046
(May 23, 2017 02:24 PM, by Scott Sumner) Bob Murphy left a comment after my MoneyIllusion post on the NGDP prediction market (and David Henderson had a similar question): In a traditional financial market, people have skin in the game and that helps to yield the "wisdom of... (0 COMMENTS)