Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

July 1, 2016, 2:04 am, 1650032
(July 1, 2016 12:23 AM, by David Henderson) I'm at my cottage in Canada, where I've come every summer since I was 7 months old except for 5 interspersed years in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, when other things were going on in my life. It's Canada... (0 ...

June 30, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1649849
(June 30, 2016 11:56 AM, by Scott Sumner) As I write this, Britain's FTSE100 stock index is soaring to its highest levels of the year. Admittedly, the domestic indices aren't doing that well, but they are also recovering. So what about all the gloom and doom associated with... (0 COMMENTS)

June 30, 2016, 10:04 am, 1649810
(June 30, 2016 09:04 AM, by Amy Willis) We all know at a general level that (K-12) schooling is legally compulsory...but might it be culturally compulsory as well? Kevin Currie-Knight, for FEE, thinks so. I'm inclined to agree, and will second his recommendation of Ivan Illich's Deschooling Society.... (0 COMMENTS)

June 29, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1649631
(June 29, 2016 05:15 PM, by Scott Sumner) Timothy Lee has an excellent new post: Brexit isn't the most serious threat to the EU -- the euro is One surprising thing about Britain's vote to leave the EU is that the British economy has been doing better than... (0 COMMENTS)

June 29, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1649593
(June 29, 2016 01:14 PM, by Emily Skarbek) Mark Blaug (1927-2011) was an economist best known for his work in history of economic thought and the methodology of economics. He was a student of George Stigler at Chicago in the 1950s and went on to teach at Yale,... (0 COMMENTS)

June 29, 2016, 12:04 am, 1649344
(June 29, 2016 02:15 AM, by David Henderson) Last Friday, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman gave a talk at the Naval Postgraduate School, where I teach, and I had a front-row seat. Here are some impressions and responses to his talk. First, I arrived with a bias... (0 COMMENTS)

June 28, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1649168
(June 28, 2016 12:59 PM, by David Henderson) One of my fantasies is of a classroom in which a tenured economics professor at an accredited institution of higher learning says, "We must have free trade," and a few students leap out of their chairs and shout, "You first!"... (1 COMMENTS)

June 28, 2016, 8:04 am, 1649090
(June 28, 2016 07:06 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Emily Skarbek has already offered very sound thoughts on Brexit - and David Henderson and Scott Sumner (as well as David Beckworth) are debating whether Brexit constitutes a monetary shock. I would just like to build on the point Emily... (1 COMMENTS)

June 27, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1648904
(June 27, 2016 03:50 PM, by Scott Sumner) Commenter Matthew Moore asked the following question: Any chance of a post on the likely consequences of GBP devaluation? Ejection from the ERM caused a boom. I realise the UK wasn't deliberately overvalued this time, but are there parallels? In... (0 COMMENTS)

June 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1648820
(June 27, 2016 01:46 PM, by David Henderson) My fellow UCLA grad and former Council of Economic Advisers senior economist colleague applies Ronald Coase-type thinking to limits on liability for nuclear power plants. He writes: The same principle applies to nuclear construction. If people and owners of property... (0 COMMENTS)