Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

April 20, 2018, 11:24 am, 1843707
(April 20, 2018 11:17 AM, by Scott Sumner) David Henderson has a recent post discussing the likelihood of the US government defaulting on its debt, at some point in the future: That motivated me to go back to an article that San Jose State University economist Jeff Hummel... (0 COMMENTS)

April 19, 2018, 4:35 pm, 1843456
(April 19, 2018 03:50 PM, by Contributing Guest) by Pierre Lemieux Don't Trump and Xi have a different vision of international trade? Not really. Nobody knows how the protectionist tug-of-war between Chinese president Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump--each one deciding for his flock--will end. Perhaps we'll... (0 COMMENTS)

April 18, 2018, 6:36 pm, 1843065
(April 18, 2018 06:06 PM, by Scott Sumner) I've often expressed skepticism about survey questions regarding macroeconomics. Thus why ask the public whether they like inflation, if less than 5% of the public even knows what inflation is? (I ask my class if the cost of living has... (0 COMMENTS)

April 18, 2018, 2:36 pm, 1842976
(April 18, 2018 02:08 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Email from EconLog reader Joshua Fox, reprinted with his permission.  There's no reason, of course, that you couldn't have a similar job training model without the injustice of conscription. Bryan, I loved The Case Against Education. Further support for your... (0 COMMENTS)

April 18, 2018, 11:05 am, 1842883
(April 18, 2018 12:46 PM, by David Henderson) Today, I'll be giving a talk at Indiana University East in Richmond, Indiana. Title: How Economists Helped End the Draft Time: April 18 at 4:00 p.m. Location: Tom Raper Hall 124 If you're an EconLog reader and you live nearby,... (0 COMMENTS)

April 17, 2018, 8:06 pm, 1842700
(April 17, 2018 09:58 PM, by David Henderson) Today, I flew from Monterey to LAX on United, then on to Washington Dulles, with a connection planned to Dayton, Ohio. My plan was to rent a car in Dayton and drive to my hotel in Richmond, Indiana, and then... (0 COMMENTS)

April 17, 2018, 1:45 pm, 1842581
(April 17, 2018 01:22 PM, by Bryan Caplan) My favorite passage from Ali Rizvi's The Atheist Muslim:[M]ost moderately religious people, especially here in the West, approach their religious scriptures very differently from how they would read, say, Alice in Wonderland, or this book you're reading right now.  As... (0 COMMENTS)

April 16, 2018, 3:05 pm, 1842271
(April 16, 2018 04:44 PM, by David Henderson) I was on a discussion on Facebook yesterday with an economist about default and high inflation. This economist and I agree that the U.S. federal government has an enormous deficit and debt problem in its future. What we disagreed about... (0 COMMENTS)

April 16, 2018, 10:35 am, 1842171
(April 16, 2018 10:19 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I'm in the weekend edition of the WSJ, talking to James Taranto about The Case Against Education.  Gated, unfortunately!... (0 COMMENTS)

April 16, 2018, 9:24 am, 1842142
(April 16, 2018 08:55 AM, by Contributing Guest) by Pierre Lemieux A war, even a just war, becomes a reason or an excuse for your own state to increase its power over its own citizens--against you. As the scientific study of the social consequences of rational or incentivized... (0 COMMENTS)