Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

May 28, 2016, 8:04 am, 1640594
(May 28, 2016 07:04 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Jonah Goldberg has an excellent post on "Social Darwinism", in which he builds on a potential imprecision by Deirdre McCloskey, who published a piece in the Wall Street Journal abridging her new, wonderful book "Bourgeois Equality". Goldberg singles out this... (0 COMMENTS)

May 27, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1640548
(May 27, 2016 07:11 PM, by David Henderson) The rise in exports from China has been one of the most significant events in international trade in recent decades. This trend has accelerated since that country's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Even before that date,... (0 COMMENTS)

May 27, 2016, 2:04 am, 1640293
(May 27, 2016 12:53 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I'm tempted to tell Scott, "You had me at 'Why Bryan Caplan wins almost all of his bets."*  But my story varies from his.  Scott begins:Bryan almost always takes the consensus view in any bet.Not really.  In general, I think... (0 COMMENTS)

May 26, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1640147
(May 26, 2016 01:44 PM, by Scott Sumner) [This is aimed at clarifying my previous post, which David commented on.] Bryan almost always takes the consensus view in any bet. The view a betting market would take, if one existed. When I first hear about a new Caplan... (0 COMMENTS)

May 26, 2016, 4:04 am, 1639968
(May 26, 2016 02:04 AM, by David Henderson) I'm still scratching my head at co-blogger Scott Sumner's recent post titled "You're not special." It seems like a combination of extreme subjectivism, denial of subjectivism, putting his thumb on the obvious, and argument from authority. Extreme Subjectivism Scott writes,... (0 COMMENTS)

May 26, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639927
(May 26, 2016 12:05 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The welfare state is an appealing rationale for migration restrictions.  Normally, of course, it's a rationale for international migration restrictions.  In Maoist China, however, the urban welfare state swiftly became a rationale for restricting domestic migration from the countryside, enforced... (0 COMMENTS)

May 25, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1639830
(May 25, 2016 03:42 PM, by Scott Sumner) You may like your outgoing and family oriented culture, or your introspective and individualistic culture. But that fact, by itself, doesn't make your culture better than another. (Put aside the question of whether it is better, a much more difficult... (0 COMMENTS)

May 25, 2016, 4:04 am, 1639586
(May 25, 2016 04:00 AM, by Emily Skarbek) Attention undergraduates and undergraduate educators - one week remains to submit papers for the 5th annual Carl Menger Essay Contest! The purpose of the contest is to recognize and encourage undergraduate scholarship in the Austrian tradition and the broadly catallactic... (0 COMMENTS)

May 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1639408
(May 24, 2016 03:50 PM, by David Henderson) One of my favorite writers and thinkers on the Cato blog, Cato at Liberty, is Jim Harper. He posted yesterday on voting, titling his piece "Don't Not Vote." He makes some good points but goes too far. The issue for... (0 COMMENTS)

May 24, 2016, 12:04 am, 1639186
(May 23, 2016 10:28 PM, by Emily Skarbek) My sense is that most of the coverage of Brexit in the US comes down in favour of remaining in the EU. That is the case put forward in Dalibor Rohac's new book. And for onlookers, I think it is... (0 COMMENTS)