May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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February 19, 2017, 10:04 am, 1721308
(February 19, 2017 10:23 AM, by Scott Sumner) David Beckworth has done a very interesting set of interviews with leading figures in monetary economics and related fields. One of my favorite occurred a few weeks ago when David interviewed Gauti Eggertsson. Eggertsson is a prominent monetary theorist, who... (0 COMMENTS)
February 18, 2017, 10:04 am, 1721185
(February 18, 2017 11:06 AM, by David Henderson) In his excellent post on taxes and the incidence of taxes, co-blogger Scott Sumner does not mention another important issue in taxation: deadweight loss. The deadweight loss from a tax is the part of the loss to those who bear... (0 COMMENTS)
February 17, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1721130
(February 17, 2017 06:03 PM, by Scott Sumner) Andy Puzder was one of the few Trump appointees that I sort of liked (I say "sort of", because even he had ethical issues.) He was pro-immigration and anti-minimum wage. But in the end even many conservatives opposed him so... (2 COMMENTS)
February 17, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1721015
(February 17, 2017 03:27 PM, by David Henderson) Michael Novak, the well-known Catholic theologian at the American Enterprise Institute, died today. I didn't know him well and I didn't know his work well. My late friend Roy Childs, Jr., was somewhat of a fan, if I recall correctly.... (0 COMMENTS)
February 17, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1720969
(February 17, 2017 02:02 PM, by David Henderson) "Why should it be different this time?" So asks Tyler Cowen in opening his recent Bloomberg article "Industrial Revolution Comparisons Aren't Comforting." The idea of people who ask that question--I'm one of them--is that the Industrial Revolution worked out pretty... (0 COMMENTS)
February 17, 2017, 10:04 am, 1720921
(February 17, 2017 09:57 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Team Caplan is once again attending ISFLC. I'll be in two official events.Event #1: UBI Debate with Will Wilkinson, 3:30-4:30 PM on Saturday.Event #2: Ask Me Anything, 5:00-5:45 on Saturday.If you want to meet up sometime during the conference, email... (0 COMMENTS)
February 16, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1720690
(February 16, 2017 04:48 PM, by Scott Sumner) Here's Business Insider: Janet Yellen's warning about low rates causing a recession doesn't make sense Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told Congress this week that the US central bank could cause a recession if it waited too long to raise... (2 COMMENTS)
February 16, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1720645
(February 16, 2017 02:08 PM, by Bryan Caplan) One of my pet theories is that children reveal the true nature of man. They have the same emotions as adults; they're just terrible at hiding them. Even when their emotions are monstrous, kids either just blurt out whatever they're... (1 COMMENTS)
February 16, 2017, 8:04 am, 1720463
(February 16, 2017 09:54 AM, by David Henderson) Co-blogger Scott Sumner wrote a post recently titled "Protectionism is Not Inflationary." I disagree. Thus the title of this post. We both learned from the great Milton Friedman--Scott as one of his students, me indirectly as a student of two... (0 COMMENTS)
February 15, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1720302
(February 15, 2017 09:38 PM, by David Henderson) In 1996, U.K. statisticians estimated 10 recessions between 1955 and 1995. In 2012, other U.K. statisticians "disappeared" 3 of them. In 1966, the late Paul Samuelson stated that the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions. That's... (0 COMMENTS)