Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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May 2, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1466321
(May 2, 2015 04:48 PM, by Scott Sumner) Noah Smith recently made this claim: Maybe people are perfectly smart and rational enough to understand the David Ricardo idea, and also smart enough to understand something else that economists have known for 200 years -- international trade doesn't necessarily... (0 ...


May 2, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1466263
(May 2, 2015 03:23 PM, by David Henderson) Last night, I went to an event at the Peace Resource Center in Seaside, California to see talks by some Americans who had recently visited Iran. There's lots to report, and I may do a further post, but one thing... (0 ...


May 2, 2015, 8:04 am, 1466165
(May 2, 2015 06:17 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) On the Liberty and Law blog, Mike Rappaport has an interesting post on the politics of Game of Thrones. I got caught up in Game of Thrones by the HBO TV series, which is marvellously engaging. Then I started to... (0 ...


May 1, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1465960
(May 1, 2015 09:31 PM, by David Henderson) Conversable Economist Timothy Taylor has an excellent post on the net international investment position of the United States. Tim has been hitting two-baggers, three-baggers, and home runs for a long time now. If you want to see a well-informed economist... (0 ...


May 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1465637
(May 1, 2015 10:46 AM, by Scott Sumner) The government recently estimated that real GDP rose at a 0.2% rate in the first quarter of 2015. Most forecasters overestimated the growth rate, while the Atlanta Fed was pretty close, with a 0.1% forecast. The media pointed to temporary... (0 ...


April 30, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1465219
(April 30, 2015 10:04 PM, by David Henderson) There's even a term for what caused me, someone who is notoriously impatient while watching long videos, to watch an hour-plus video of a speech by feminist Christina Hoff Sommers at Georgetown. It's called the "Streisand effect." Most of the... (0 COMMENTS)


April 30, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1465090
(April 30, 2015 04:25 PM, by Scott Sumner) Ben Bernanke has a good post on the Taylor Rule. Let's start at the end, where he argues in favor of decision-making by the FOMC, rather than a rigid mechanical policy rule: Monetary policy should be systematic, not automatic. The... (1 COMMENTS)


April 30, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1464851
(April 30, 2015 09:39 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Kahneman and Renshon's chapter on "Hawkish Biases" (Thrall and Cramer, eds., American Foreign Policy and The Politics of Fear: Threat Inflation Since 9/11, 2009) is a big improvement over their Foreign Affairs piece on "Why Hawks Win."  Highlights include...The role... (0 COMMENTS)


April 29, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1464121
(April 29, 2015 01:51 PM, by David Henderson) Dean Baker has a post in which he expresses skepticism about fast-track authority for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact (TTIP). He argues that the deals are not mainly about free trade. Paul Krugman argued... (3 COMMENTS)


April 29, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1464026
(April 29, 2015 11:26 AM, by Bryan Caplan) If every worker were paid exactly proportional to their actual productivity - if neither statistical discrimination nor fairness played any role in the job market - how much would the standard deviation of labor earnings increase?HT: Garett Jones... (1 COMMENTS)