Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


July 27, 2017, 12:04 am, 1766299
(July 27, 2017 02:00 AM, by David Henderson) "Capitalism" has become a fighting word in the battle between East and West and for men's minds everywhere; and, like all slogans, it means many things to many men. To some "capitalism" is a term of opprobrium, signifying the oppression... (0 COMMENTS)


July 26, 2017, 8:04 am, 1765994
(July 26, 2017 07:30 AM, by David Henderson) In the picture above, I'm wearing the actual poker hat that Frank Knight wore when he worked on articles. Here' the tale of how that came to be. In the Spring of 2002, I was teaching a microeconomics class... (0 COMMENTS)


July 25, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1765709
(July 25, 2017 01:28 PM, by David Henderson) When I posted on Frank Knight's case for Communism the other day, I also put it on up on Facebook and had some people wondering about context. Those of us who are fans of Frank Knight don't think of... (1 COMMENTS)


July 25, 2017, 8:04 am, 1765628
(July 25, 2017 07:22 AM, by Scott Sumner) I frequently argue that income is a meaningless concept, as it includes capital gains (and losses) in asset values. Indeed the problem is even more basic, as income mixes labor income and all investment income, which is like adding apples... (0 COMMENTS)


July 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1765356
(July 24, 2017 12:58 PM, by David Henderson) When I was writing a lot for Fortune in the late 1980s and early to mid-1990s, an editor of one of my articles casually referred to it as a "thumbsucker." I thought it was an insult, but he explained... (0 COMMENTS)


July 24, 2017, 10:04 am, 1765319
(July 24, 2017 08:16 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I'm speaking in Paris this Thursday for Students for Liberty.  Details here.P.S. Here's what I thought the last time I was in Paris nine years ago.... (0 COMMENTS)


July 23, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1765184
(July 23, 2017 08:11 PM, by David Henderson) Wall Street Journal editorial writer Joe Rago died this week at the age of 34. If you read the Review and Outlook editorials--the unsigned editorials that are published on the left hand side of the editorial page and reflect the... (0 COMMENTS)


July 21, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1764976
(July 21, 2017 09:47 PM, by David Henderson) I dug out of my library a famous unpublished (until 1991) 1932 mimeograph (those under age 45 should look up that term) article by Frank H. Knight. The article is titled "The Case for Communism: From the Standpoint of... (1 COMMENTS)


July 20, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1764649
(July 20, 2017 09:08 PM, by David Henderson) Diplomats here expect Washington to drop sanctions in the fall, as planned during the final days of the Obama administration, not least because they failed to achieve some key goals. "When the sanctions were implemented, the hope was that there... (0 COMMENTS)


July 20, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1764545
(July 20, 2017 01:45 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Now that I've studied the article that inspired Robin's recent bet, I'm completely flabbergasted by his reaction.  Here's the key figure in the original paper, showing how respondents ranked the mentality of thirteen characters.The Experience factor explains 88% of the... (0 COMMENTS)