Calculated Risk
Read the Bill McBride interview.
Jobs
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Graph-of-the-Year Candidates
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Finally, it's hard to argue against the payroll employment graph below (straight from FRED) and the comparison across recessions (courtesy of Calculated Risk).
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Remember M1?
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”
May 20, 2013, 12:04 am, 1095454
(May 20, 2013 12:21 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Thanks for all 115 answers to my "how to spend a billion dollars" challenge. Two general observations:1. When you claim that X is most efficient way for the federal government to spend an extra billion dollars, you should point to... (0 COMMENTS)
May 19, 2013, 12:04 am, 1095221
(May 19, 2013 12:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Suppose a city's population exogenously rises. You might think that price theory clearly implies that demand for real estate will rise. But that's not so. In theory, higher population could generate a congestion externality so awful that demand for real... (1 COMMENTS)
May 18, 2013, 8:04 pm, 1095215
(May 18, 2013 06:59 PM, by Art Carden) Jacob Levy directs readers to the Mission Statement of the Freedom Center at the University of Arizona. I agree that these are values to be emulated. While I sometimes allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good, I... (0 COMMENTS)
May 18, 2013, 10:04 am, 1095178
(May 18, 2013 09:59 AM, by David Henderson) In the cost/benefit analysis course i teach, one of the actual cost/benefit analyses we work our way through--and one that I present as a reasonably good CBA--is a study done by two St. Louis Federal Reserve economists on adding another... (7 COMMENTS)
May 18, 2013, 2:04 am, 1095142
(May 18, 2013 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Jim Flynn's latest book has fascinating info on age and intelligence. But Sternberg, Wagner, Williams, and Horvath, "Testing Common Sense" (American Psychologist, 1995) suggest that Flynn misses an important part of the story. There's a widespread perception that "common sense"... (1 COMMENTS)
May 17, 2013, 12:04 pm, 1094861
(May 17, 2013 11:52 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Arthur Breitman and I have hammered out the following inflation bet: If the 12 month change of the CPI-U as reported by the BLS is greater than 5% for any sliding window between today and December 2015 in monthly increments,... (0 COMMENTS)
May 17, 2013, 12:04 pm, 1094860
(May 17, 2013 11:59 AM, by Art Carden) Ronald Coase famously advised economists to "look out the window" every so often. It's advice I (try to) take to heart. Here's an example. On Monday afternoon, I was standing behind our building waiting for a few people and "enjoying"... (0 COMMENTS)
May 17, 2013, 8:04 am, 1094719
(May 17, 2013 09:59 AM, by David Henderson) Linda Gorman, my former Naval Postgraduate School colleague and author of three excellent articles in The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics (here, here, and here), has written a post laying out some weird consequences of the ObamaCare law. I would be... (0 COMMENTS)
May 16, 2013, 6:04 pm, 1094441
(May 16, 2013 04:23 PM, by Art Carden) Here's a quick update to yesterday's post on what I've been reading lately. I had to give to exams this morning, so that gave me plenty of time to read. If you're looking for something to take to the beach... (0 COMMENTS)
May 16, 2013, 10:04 am, 1094115
(May 16, 2013 10:47 AM, by Bryan Caplan) My Ph.D. students' responses to the following question on their final exam disappointed me:In the modern U.S., what is the most efficient way for the federal government to spend an extra billion dollars? What is the maximally utilitarian way for... (0 COMMENTS)
