Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

December 19, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1392231
(December 19, 2014 02:49 PM, by David Henderson) "What Michael did was the exception, not the rule," Luzinski said. "He didn't have to do this. The law allows you to skate by and pay your creditors 10 or 20 cents on the dollar, but he thought this was... (0 COMMENTS)

December 18, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1391617
(December 18, 2014 03:16 PM, by David Henderson) When the U.S. minimum wage law was put into effect in 1938, northeastern labor unions gained from it by pricing out their competition. Unions in the textile industry were seeing textile firms move from New England states to southern lower-wage... (0 COMMENTS)

December 17, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1391105
(December 17, 2014 07:31 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Mixed signals from France. The Financial Times, among others, has stressed the potential of the liberalisation plan pursued by the new Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. The bill aims at lowering barriers to entry in liberal professions--notaries, pharmacists, et cetera. The... (0 COMMENTS)

December 17, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1391052
(December 17, 2014 06:57 PM, by David Henderson) As is probably known to virtually all readers of this blog, President Obama announced today his steps to normalize relations with Cuba. It is long overdue and finally we have a President willing to do something about it. I have... (1 COMMENTS)

December 17, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1390806
(December 17, 2014 11:24 AM, by Scott Sumner) The title of this post sounds like a truism, and yet it's actually highly controversial. In my previous post I pointed out that the ECB was not hitting its 1.9% inflation target, and apparently has no plan for doing so... (0 COMMENTS)

December 17, 2014, 12:04 am, 1390390
(December 17, 2014 12:05 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Everything I've written about The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, my favorite book this year:1. The thesis.2. We owe civilization to fossil fuels.3. We can live with warming.4. Refining the case.The book's a great Christmas present, all the way down... (0 COMMENTS)

December 16, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1390351
(December 16, 2014 11:20 PM, by David Henderson) I've asked tough questions before. When Leon Panetta, my former Congressman, came to NPS as Secretary of Defense, I asked [here at the 43:40 point] whether, given his own previous statement that Al Qaeda was down to a handful of... (0 COMMENTS)

December 16, 2014, 10:04 am, 1389965
(December 16, 2014 09:07 AM, by Scott Sumner) Remember the joke about the motorist who gets lost, and then asks for directions to Podunk? The farmer replies, "If I was headed to Podunk, I wouldn't start from here." Yes, and if I was targeting inflation at 1.9%, I... (0 COMMENTS)

December 15, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1389550
(December 15, 2014 06:37 PM, by David Henderson) Starting in January, Californians will pay an added 10 cents or so per gallon of gasoline due to a new law that goes into effect next month. UC Berkeley economist Severin Borenstein writes: Under California's cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse... (4 COMMENTS)

December 14, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1388973
(December 15, 2014 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels is the best book I've read all year, and makes a great holiday gift.  But there's still room for improvement.1. Epstein centers his moral case around "human life as the standard of value."  This... (0 COMMENTS)