Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

September 17, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1336857
(September 18, 2014 12:01 AM, by Bryan Caplan) On Twitter, Mark Krikorian opined that, "Desire for membership in a tribe is as inherent to the human personality as some form of body covering."  He's not exactly wrong, but omits three essential caveats.1. Desire for tribal membership varies widely. ... (1 COMMENTS)

September 17, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1336766
(September 17, 2014 04:45 PM, by Art Carden) In early 2013, I had the privilege of speaking at a student conference in Brazil. While I was making my travel arrangements, I asked my Facebook network whether I should pay the extra $100 for Economy Comfort on the international... (0 COMMENTS)

September 17, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1336537
(September 17, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) This morning, our six-year-old earned fifty cents. That fifty cents topped of the money he has been earning recently and gave him enough to buy a $17 toy he wants. I couldn't be prouder: when he wants something, he finds... (0 COMMENTS)

September 17, 2014, 2:04 am, 1336191
(September 17, 2014 01:00 AM, by David Henderson) Earlier this week, I posted a 1983 memo that I wrote to my boss at the Council of Economic Advisers, Martin Feldstein, about a meeting to discuss relaxing the limits on exports of Alaskan oil. Below is a follow-up memo... (0 COMMENTS)

September 17, 2014, 12:04 am, 1336177
(September 17, 2014 12:08 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In the past, I've argued that Steve Sailer's citizenism is a moral travesty.  Advancing the interests of your in-group should always play second fiddle to respecting the rights of out-groups.  But recently, he presented what sounds like a universal argument... (2 COMMENTS)

September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335862
(September 16, 2014 11:34 AM, by Bryan Caplan) As far as I can tell, spending statistics for education do not count implicit land rent as part of the cost of education.  The Digest of Education Statistics' Table 213 for example, states that:Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food... (0 COMMENTS)

September 16, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1335861
(September 16, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) Stanley Hauerwas, War and the American Difference: Theological Reflections on Violence and National Identity. This wasn't really "recent" as it was several months ago, but Hauerwas spoke at Samford last semester. Hauerwas discusses war--a key sacrament of civic religion--from a... (0 COMMENTS)

September 16, 2014, 10:04 am, 1335788
(September 16, 2014 08:35 AM, by Scott Sumner) This is beginning to sound like a broken record. A reformist right-wing government does lots of good things, trimming the size of the public sector. It promises monetary stability but delivers instability---a contractionary monetary shock. This time it was in... (0 COMMENTS)

September 16, 2014, 2:04 am, 1335515
(September 16, 2014 02:19 AM, by David Henderson) I'm a big fan of Vanguard. All of my IRA-type assets are in Vanguard funds. And when I mistakenly claimed in a Wall Street Journal that John (Jack) Bogle, who started Vanguard, had learned from work by Eugene Fama, Bogle... (0 COMMENTS)

September 15, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1335235
(September 15, 2014 01:49 PM, by David Henderson) Last week, I posted here and here about Larry Summers's excellent talk in which he advocated removing the ban on U.S. oil exports. I then remembered that when I was the Senior Economist for Energy Policy with President Reagan's Council... (0 COMMENTS)