Technical Problems 3/9/15
The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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March 28, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1447077
(March 28, 2015 10:08 PM, by David Henderson) The prudent man, claims Roberts, does not smoke, is "physically active and keeps his weight under control," and "works hard and avoids debt." On debt, I must part company. It was by taking on what seemed like a massive debt... (0 COMMENTS)
March 28, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446896
(March 28, 2015 09:22 AM, by Scott Sumner) When I moved to Boston in 1982, no one talked about the declining share of national income going to labor. Or increasing income inequality. Now these are the hottest topics in economics. Much of the discussion seems to implicitly suggest... (0 COMMENTS)
March 27, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1446765
(March 27, 2015 09:26 PM, by David Henderson) "I've always had trouble succeeding along traditional Bush family lines." So writes Jonathan Bush on p. 1 of his book, Where Does It Hurt? With that one sentence, he had me. Bush is a nephew of George H. W. Bush... (0 COMMENTS)
March 27, 2015, 10:04 am, 1446414
(March 27, 2015 11:49 AM, by David Henderson) This is the longest time I've gone without posting, other than when I'm on vacation at my cottage in Canada in August. I was traveling and my computer was being repaired after I got back. I gave a talk at... (0 COMMENTS)
March 27, 2015, 8:04 am, 1446333
(March 27, 2015 07:08 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) The Wall Street Journal often provides its readers with eye-opening arguments in the "Notable and Quotable" column hosted in its editorial page. On March 13, the WSJ quoted William Baumol, Robert Litan, and Carl Schramm, "Good Capitalism, Bad Capitalism, and... (0 COMMENTS)
March 26, 2015, 12:04 am, 1445439
(March 26, 2015 12:02 AM, by Bryan Caplan) One common complaint about proponents of open borders is that we picture human beings as interchangeable parts. If an American can do X, so can a Haitian. Why can't the open borders crowd see the obvious truth that people are... (2 COMMENTS)
March 25, 2015, 10:04 am, 1445031
(March 25, 2015 09:26 AM, by Scott Sumner) I think we all agree that private property rights are an important feature of capitalism. But what is "property"? It increasingly seems like the answer is just about everything: Taylor Swift Trademarks 'This Sick Beat' and Other Catchphrases Thinking about... (1 COMMENTS)
March 25, 2015, 12:04 am, 1444770
(March 25, 2015 12:13 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Cowen and Hanson's "Are Disagreements Honest?" summarizes the theoretical case against "agreeing to disagree."Yet according to well-known theory, such honest disagreement is impossible. Robert Aumann (1976) first developed general results about the irrationality of "agreeing to disagree." He showed that... (0 COMMENTS)
March 24, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1444471
(March 24, 2015 10:25 AM, by Scott Sumner) Stanley Fischer is one of the world's most thoughtful monetary economists. And now he is also vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. He recently gave a speech on monetary policy, which as you'd expect contained many wise observations. However... (5 COMMENTS)
March 23, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1444097
(March 24, 2015 12:06 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I never got around to reading the previous editions of Robert Shiller's Irrational Exurberance, but I've finished reading the new third edition cover-to-cover.Rather than review the whole book, consider the single most convincing figure. At first glance, it's easy to... (3 COMMENTS)