Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


December 9, 2016, 10:04 am, 1701231
(December 9, 2016 09:21 AM, by Scott Sumner) The Mercatus Center has a new colloquium on the current low interest rate environment, and the implications of higher rates in the future. My contribution discusses four possible ways that interest rates might rise: 1. Tighter money 2. Easier money... (0 ...


December 8, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1701036
(December 15, 2016 02:22 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Confession: Whenever I write, I'm looking for converts.  I don't just want to share some information.  I want to change how my readers think - and how they see themselves.When I read other proselytizing thinkers, however, I cringe.  I cringe... (0 COMMENTS)


December 8, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1700950
(December 8, 2016 10:40 AM, by Scott Sumner) Noah Smith linked to the following recent paper in the AER, by Justin R Pierce and Peter K. Shott. : Abstract: This paper links the sharp drop in US manufacturing employment after 2000 to a change in US trade policy... (5 ...


December 7, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1700662
(December 7, 2016 02:20 PM, by Bryan Caplan) The Niskanen Center has been an engine of idea creation since its foundation in 2014.  I know many of its scholars well.  But I'm still trying to figure out Niskanen's fundamental goal.  Perhaps I'm obtuse, but I detect three distinct... (6 ...


December 7, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1700578
(December 7, 2016 11:49 AM, by Scott Sumner) I am becoming increasingly frustrated by all the articles I'm reading about how trade is supposedly decimating jobs in US manufacturing. I went to the FRED data set, and they have manufacturing output (real) going back to the first quarter... (1 ...


December 7, 2016, 8:04 am, 1700497
(December 7, 2016 07:00 AM, by Emily Skarbek) When I teach the Principles of Economics, I often note the relationship between positive analysis and normative judgments. One of my favorite ways to teach this is when we cover the minimum wage. Using Thomas Leonard's article Eugenics and Economics... (0 ...


December 7, 2016, 12:04 am, 1700389
(December 6, 2016 11:42 PM, by David Henderson) Sarah Skwire recently wrote an article, "The Awesome Social Value of the Chiquita Banana Song," in which she actually made the Chiquita banana song fascinating. An excerpt sums up why she writes about such things: I spend a lot of... (0 ...


December 6, 2016, 10:04 pm, 1700369
(December 6, 2016 09:48 PM, by Scott Sumner) A commenter named Captain Parker recently left this comment: Ok, so, inflation is a monetary phenomenon and Burns should take the blame. This I believe. Yay Milton Friedman. But if you look at '72 through '76 you would conclude Burns... (0 ...


December 6, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1700322
(December 6, 2016 03:51 PM, by Amy Willis) This week's EconTalk may turn out to be one of our most widely listened-to episodes, and it's easy to see why. While deeply disturbing, it's nonetheless fascinating. Host Russ Roberts welcomes Princeton's Thomas Leonard to talk about his book, Illiberal... (0 ...


December 6, 2016, 10:04 am, 1700150
(December 6, 2016 10:13 AM, by Scott Sumner) In the history of American central banking, Arthur Burns (1970-78) and G. William Miller (1978-79) are often viewed as villains, largely responsible for the Great Inflation. (Although Martin (1951-70) was the one who got the ball rolling.) A new paper... (0 ...