January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”
March 11, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1238813
(March 11, 2014 12:45 PM, by Scott Sumner) Mark Sadowski sent me this paper from Paul Davidson, which he thought was hilarious: There are two different major economic theories that attempt to explain the operation of the money using, entrepreneurial economy that we call capitalism and its financial... (2 COMMENTS)
March 11, 2014, 12:04 am, 1238406
(March 10, 2014 11:16 PM, by James Schneider) In 1966, Paul Ehrlich visited India to study butterflies. This trip provided a perfect rhetorical device to help his readers imagine the dangers of overpopulation. He was able to describe his firsthand reaction to Delhi: As we crawled through the... (0 COMMENTS)
March 10, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1238374
(March 11, 2014 12:00 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Public schools provide education free of charge. The result, unsurprisingly, is overwhelming market dominance. Almost 90% of school-age kids attend public school. Most people think this is a great thing. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. Either way, though, public... (0 COMMENTS)
March 10, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1238268
(March 10, 2014 07:29 PM, by David Henderson) I have a special course I'm leading this quarter for students who did well in a previous course on Cost/Benefit Analysis. We work our way through articles--sometimes technical articles from economics journals and more often articles by economists in the... (0 COMMENTS)
March 10, 2014, 10:04 am, 1237953
(March 10, 2014 09:00 AM, by Scott Sumner) During the days of William Jennings Bryan it was pretty well understood that deflationary monetary policies helped bondholders and inflationary monetary policies helped debtors. That's why the rich favored the gold standard and lots of indebted farmers and small merchants... (0 COMMENTS)
March 10, 2014, 12:04 am, 1237731
(March 10, 2014 12:13 AM, by Bryan Caplan) When I blame people for their problems, Democrats and liberals are prone to object at a fundamental level. One fundamental objection rests on determinism: Since everyone is determined to act precisely as he does, it is always false to say,... (1 COMMENTS)
March 9, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1237718
(March 9, 2014 09:56 PM, by David Henderson) I worry about growing income inequality. But I worry even more that the discussion is too narrowly focused. I worry that our outrage at the top 1 percent is distracting us from the problem that we should really care about:... (7 ...
March 9, 2014, 12:04 am, 1237486
(March 8, 2014 11:13 PM, by James Schneider) Most people take it for granted that teen pregnancy causes poor outcomes. However, how do you untangle whether teen pregnancy causes bad economic outcomes or is merely a leading indicator? Arline T. Geronimus and Sanders Korenman approached the issue... (0 ...
March 7, 2014, 8:04 pm, 1237338
(March 7, 2014 09:27 PM, by David Henderson) I'm working my way through Peter H. Schuck, Why Government Fails So Often. It's due out next month from Princeton University Press and I'm writing a review of it. I'm over halfway through and I'm loving it. Schuck does a... (1 ...
March 7, 2014, 8:04 am, 1236912
(March 7, 2014 07:01 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) In December last year we discussed the new European directive on tobacco products. It has been approved, and includes, as Andy Coghlan reports on the New Scientist, "strict conditions on how e-cigarettes can be formulated, advertised and sold". Now, if... (1 ...