Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

July 30, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1658951
(July 30, 2016 01:38 PM, by David Henderson) Well, Venezuela's government has now taken the next step--to forced labor. Here's Richard Washington, "Venezuela calls for mandatory labor in farm sector," on CNBC: A Venezuelan ministry last week announced Resolution No. 9855, which calls for the establishment of a... (0 COMMENTS)

July 29, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1658753
(July 29, 2016 03:03 PM, by Scott Sumner) Noah Smith has a new post on interest rates: Traditionally, macroeconomists have believed that low interest rates encourage inflation. But first Japan, and now the U.S. and Europe have kept rates low for years now, and inflation has stayed stubbornly... (3 COMMENTS)

July 29, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1658659
(July 29, 2016 12:26 PM, by David Henderson) In the most important post this month, Tyler Cowen quotes from Frank Dikotter's "Looking back on the Great Leap Forward," in History Today. If you're feeling bad about the two grim major-party choices for president in November, remember that it... (1 COMMENTS)

July 29, 2016, 12:04 am, 1658438
(July 29, 2016 12:06 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I've started scanning the early writings of my favorite philosopher, Michael Huemer.  I have quite a few in my possession.  First on the menu: his prize-winning graduate student essay, "On Liberty and Philosophy," which addresses the philosophical side of what... (1 COMMENTS)

July 28, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1658284
(July 28, 2016 04:08 PM, by David Henderson) In my recent post "Incentives Matter for Politicians Too," I wrote: One of my biggest concerns is that Hillary Clinton as President would purposely or accidentally get the United States into a war with Putin. The New York Times editors,... (3 COMMENTS)

July 28, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1658198
(July 28, 2016 11:55 AM, by Scott Sumner) Rajan directed me to a post by Miles Kimball, entitled "Pro Gauti Eggertsson". He discusses Eggertsson's views on the role of inflation expectations in the recovery from the Great Depression. Like Miles, I'm a big fan of Eggertsson's work on... (0 COMMENTS)

July 28, 2016, 8:04 am, 1658109
(July 28, 2016 07:10 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) I've recently watched "Star Trek Beyond" and liked it a lot. Visually, I think it's one of the most astonishing science fiction movie ever. The USS Enterprise "parking" inside a space station is perhaps the single most impressive scene I've... (0 COMMENTS)

July 28, 2016, 2:04 am, 1657998
(July 28, 2016 12:04 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Robin recently tried an Ideological Turing Test for a subset of my critique of his Age of Em.  He understands me better than before, but there's still room for improvement.  "Correct" means Robin has described my view to a tee. ... (0 COMMENTS)

July 27, 2016, 8:04 pm, 1657897
(July 27, 2016 06:38 PM, by Scott Sumner) Tyler Cowen has a new Bloomberg column: Maybe Negative Yields Are a Sign of Prosperity Just when it seemed that negative yields could not spread any further, they did. Corporate bonds paying negative interest rates now account for about $512... (0 COMMENTS)

July 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1657727
(July 27, 2016 10:44 AM, by Emily Skarbek) In commenting on Milton Friedman's contributions to economics, it was once remarked that "attempting to portray the work of Milton Friedman . . . is like trying to catch the Niagara Falls in a pint pot." In yesterday's Bloomberg View,... (3 COMMENTS)