Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


January 16, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1710957
(January 16, 2017 04:22 PM, by David Henderson) St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Vice-President and economist Stephen D. Williamson has written a critical review of Kenneth Rogoff's The Curse of Cash. I use the word "critical" in the sense we academics use it: a balanced critique that... (0 COMMENTS)


January 16, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1710889
(January 16, 2017 11:12 AM, by Scott Sumner) When I was in grad school in the late 1970s, there was increased interest in the "monetary ineffectiveness proposition", which posited that money was neutral and monetary policy did not impact real variables. There was virtually no interest (at Chicago)... (4 COMMENTS)


January 14, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1710593
(January 14, 2017 04:30 PM, by Scott Sumner) Many people are puzzled by the fact that Japan continues to fall short of its 2% inflation target. Some attribute this the Japan being in a "liquidity trap". But surely that can't be the complete explanation. If Zimbabwe can find... (0 COMMENTS)


January 14, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1710565
(January 14, 2017 12:13 PM, by David Henderson) Economists have shown that the cost to get one drug to market successfully is now more than $2.8 billion. This cost has been growing at 7.5 percent per year, more than doubling every ten years. Most of this cost... (2 COMMENTS)


January 13, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1710351
(January 13, 2017 11:06 AM, by Scott Sumner) I was mildly opposed to Obamacare, but mostly because I thought it was a missed opportunity to reform health care. I was bemused to see very strident opposition to the program on the right, with some pretty hyperbolic language about... (3 COMMENTS)


January 12, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1710138
(January 12, 2017 06:38 PM, by David Henderson) On November 8, Indian prime minster Narendra Modi announced that the two largest denominations of banknotes could not be used for payments any more with almost immediate effect. Owners could only recoup their value by putting them into a bank... (0 COMMENTS)


January 12, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1710106
(January 12, 2017 10:30 AM, by Amy Willis) What made the "Great Recession" great? How did its effects, and the policy responses prompted by it, differ from those seen with earlier recessions? This week's EconTalk episode, with Stanford economist and Chairman of the NBER's Business Cycle Dating... (0 COMMENTS)


January 12, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1710060
(January 12, 2017 02:36 PM, by Scott Sumner) Martin Feldstein had a recent piece in the WSJ that defended the idea of a border tax adjustment, which would be a part of the proposed corporate tax reform. He points out that if imports were no longer deductible, and... (0 COMMENTS)


January 11, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1709719
(January 11, 2017 01:59 PM, by David Henderson) Well, it's now obvious that Canada has not dodged a bullet. One of President-elect Trump's most sincerely held views is that free trade is suspect. He buys into virtually every mercantilist myth, even claiming in a recent tweet, "China has... (0 COMMENTS)


January 11, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1709676
(January 11, 2017 11:58 AM, by Scott Sumner) James Alexander directed me to a very good Bloomberg article on "monetary offset": Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may well be thinking it. Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Fed, came close to saying it. "A more stimulative fiscal outlook... (0 COMMENTS)