Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794452
(November 22, 2017 10:56 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Arthur Brooks' personal experience with international adoption beautifully complements the science:When the moment of truth came, my name was called, I entered the room, and a Chinese official plopped a baby into my arms. I braced myself, and -- nothing... (3 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794457
(November 20, 2017 02:05 PM, by Contributing Guest) by Richard McKenzie "Don't tax me, don't tax thee, tax the man behind the tree!" ~ The late U.S. Senator Russell Long (D-LA) Republicans are being excoriated by pundits, journalists and Democrats for proposing to lower the corporate income tax... (13 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794455
(November 21, 2017 02:39 PM, by Bryan Caplan) This semester, my homeschoolers are unofficially taking a GMU class on Religions of the West.  Here's a list of questions about the Protestant Reformation (and a few other topics) they composed to discuss with their professor during office hours.  Paternal... (10 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794456
(November 21, 2017 10:11 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) It is not the fault of capitalism that the common man does not appreciate uncommon books. ~Ludwig von Mises There are many gems in Gertrude Himmelfarb's Past and Present. The Challenges of Modernity, from the Pre-Victorians to the Postmodernists. One... (3 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794453
(November 21, 2017 08:49 PM, by David Henderson) Larry Summers recently gave a speech at an event hosted by the Center for Global Development. It's quite good. His understanding of the big picture on economic growth is very impressive, as is his numeracy. What's a little surprising is... (2 COMMENTS)


November 22, 2017, 12:45 pm, 1794454
(November 21, 2017 06:31 PM, by Scott Sumner) A decade ago I wrote a paper that looked at several definitions of neoliberalism, and found that what I called "egalitarian neoliberalism" was especially closely correlated with civic virtue. This model was based on the various indices of economic freedom,... (5 COMMENTS)


November 8, 2017, 1:24 pm, 1794227
(November 8, 2017 02:08 PM, by Bryan Caplan) When he was living in Burma, graphic novelist Guy Delisle noticed quite a few swastikas.  Indeed, much of south Asia is full of swastikas.  It's not because they're Nazi sympathizers.  The swastika was a south Asian symbol until the Nazis... (0 ...


November 7, 2017, 7:04 pm, 1793804
(November 7, 2017 08:51 PM, by David Henderson) I was talking to a friend the other day about good movies that drive home basic economics. One of his favorite was Other People's Money, starring Danny Devito as Lawrence Garfield, Gregory Peck as Andrew Jorgenson, Penelope Ann Miller as... (0 ...


November 7, 2017, 4:35 pm, 1793737
(November 7, 2017 04:24 PM, by Scott Sumner) Eliezer Yudkowsky has a great post over at Less Wrong, presenting an imaginary dialogue with a central banker: Frequently Asked Questions for Central Banks Undershooting Their Inflation Target I recall reading this dialogue years ago, but I am not sure... (0 ...


November 7, 2017, 2:35 pm, 1793632
(November 7, 2017 02:09 PM, by Bryan Caplan) I've spent the last seventeen years trying to max out my mortgage interest deduction.  So when I first read about the new Republican tax plan, my heart sank.  Curses!  Will all my careful scheming be brought to nothing? From the... (0 ...