Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


March 3, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1432576
(March 3, 2015 11:42 AM, by Scott Sumner) I've done numerous posts pointing out that prior to 2008, New Keynesian economists believed the fiscal multiplier was roughly zero. Paul Krugman used to say that aggregate demand was essentially whatever Alan Greenspan wanted it to be. Jared Pincin sent... (0 ...


March 3, 2015, 2:04 am, 1432201
(March 3, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) A year ago I challenged EconLog readers to make unconditional predictions about the Ukraine conflict:Challenge: In the comments, go on the record and predict what will actually come of the emerging Ukrainian-Russian conflict.  Only unconditional, falsifiable predictions count.  No claims... (1 ...


March 2, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1431754
(March 2, 2015 01:53 PM, by David Henderson) In one of this month's two Feature Articles, "Who Is Harmed by Insider Trading?", Charles L. Hooper takes a look at insider trading. Specifically, whom does it hurt. A key paragraph: Insider "hurt" Uninformed Buyer by nabbing Uninformed Buyer's unexpected... (0 ...


March 2, 2015, 8:04 am, 1431593
(March 2, 2015 07:05 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) One thing that regulators, and regulation's enthusiasts, rarely get is that private businesses will do their best to off-set the impact regulation has on them. This is particularly true in instances in which regulation is considered the second-best option to... (0 ...


March 2, 2015, 12:04 am, 1431390
(March 1, 2015 11:58 PM, by David Henderson) In Econlog's sister blog, Online Library of Law & Liberty, Lauren Weiner makes an important distinction. Left wing pundit David Corn has accused Fox News Channel's Bill O'Reilly of exaggerating in telling about his experience in Argentina during and after... (0 ...


March 2, 2015, 12:04 am, 1431389
(March 2, 2015 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Most Americans are okay with educational "tracking" - measuring potential, then tailoring each student's education to his measured potential.  But if you advocate extending or expanding the role of tracking, most Americans resist.  Suppose you propose, for example, that the... (0 ...


March 1, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1431359
(March 1, 2015 07:44 PM, by Scott Sumner) There are certain topics that are extremely hard to explain to the average person. Interest rates are one of those topics. I've often argued that interest rates don't really matter that much; they are a sort of epiphenomenon of monetary... (0 ...


March 1, 2015, 10:04 am, 1431274
(March 1, 2015 11:55 AM, by David Henderson) Paul Krugman has a post on the importance of MIT economists in policy discussions. Had he simply made the point that they are highly influential, his post would have been fine. We could still argue about which of the influences... (0 ...


February 28, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1431049
(February 28, 2015 02:38 PM, by David Henderson) In a piece titled "Snow(den) blind: Libertarians' telling 'hero'," William McGurn, a former George W. Bush speechwriter and Wall Street Journal columnist, and currently editorial page editor of the New York Post, writes: The libertarians who champion Snowden will claim... (0 COMMENTS)


February 28, 2015, 8:04 am, 1430931
(February 28, 2015 07:02 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) The Liberty Fund has recently made available on line the introductions, written by Richard Ebeling, to the three volumes of "Selected Essays" by Ludwig von Mises that he edited some ten years ago. That project developed out of the discovery,... (0 COMMENTS)