Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


July 29, 2015, 4:04 am, 1517540
(July 29, 2015 03:21 AM, by David Henderson) In The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, I have bios of all of the winners of the Nobel Prize in economics through 2004, technically the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. But there have been a... (0 COMMENTS)


July 28, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1517248
(July 28, 2015 05:02 PM, by Bryan Caplan) John Podhoretz engaged my proposed nuclear Iran bet on Twitter.  Highlights of the exchange:@bryan_caplan I'll bet you but why such long odds?-- John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2015 .@jpodhoretz I propose long odds because you claim very high confidence ("effectively... (0 COMMENTS)


July 28, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1517167
(July 28, 2015 02:14 PM, by Scott Sumner) Lars Svensson has argued that the Fed should "target the forecast", which means they should adjust policy so that their predicted outcome is also their targeted outcome. Information accidentally leaked by the Fed indicates that they are not doing this,... (1 COMMENTS)


July 28, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1517002
(July 28, 2015 09:58 AM, by Bryan Caplan) John Podhoretz:The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that effectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic missiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal's terms, which is a very... (1 COMMENTS)


July 28, 2015, 10:04 am, 1516910
(July 28, 2015 09:52 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Megan McArdle has a most enjoyable piece on air conditioning. It is true that when we Europeans are traveling, sometimes it is more difficult to "adjust" to air conditioning than to the time zone. We have the impression that Americans... (0 COMMENTS)


July 28, 2015, 2:04 am, 1516671
(July 28, 2015 12:27 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Heaney and Rojas close Party in the Street by comparing the antiwar movement to the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street.  This naturally required even more original data collection.  What they found:[T]he antiwar-Democratic relationship is an intermediate case among these... (0 COMMENTS)


July 27, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1516506
(July 27, 2015 04:18 PM, by Scott Sumner) Pat Buchanan used to complain about imports from Asian and Hispanic economies, but was strangely silent about our large trade deficits with mostly white northern Europe. Donald Trump makes similar complaints. Now Kevin Williamson says that Bernie Sanders likes to... (3 COMMENTS)


July 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1516248
(July 27, 2015 09:40 AM, by Bryan Caplan) If aspiring econ Ph.D.s are going to read one article about their prospects for academic success, Stock, Siegfried, and Finegan's "Completion Rates and Time-to-Degree in Economics PhD Programs" (American Economic Review, 2011) is probably the single best piece to read. ... (1 COMMENTS)


July 27, 2015, 2:04 am, 1515943
(July 27, 2015 01:58 AM, by David Henderson) Athens, we have a problem. I missed seeing Paul Krugman on Fareed Zakaria's show on CNN on July 19. The transcript is worth looking at, not because it's that informative about Greece but because it's informative about how--and how carefully--Krugman... (0 COMMENTS)


July 26, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1515904
(July 26, 2015 03:55 PM, by David Henderson) Those who know me well know how much I like civility in debate. And, beyond civility, I like even more when people on one side of an issue will grant a point made by someone on another side of an... (1 COMMENTS)