Technical Problems 1/21/15
The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.
May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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January 28, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1411969
(January 29, 2015 12:04 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In the face of Jeff Sachs' challenge, Bob Lawson proposes a bet on economic freedom:"Dear Tyler, I read with obvious interest your post (and the paper itself) about the endogeneity of institutions. Leaving aside my issues with the IV literature,... (0 COMMENTS)
January 28, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1411619
(January 28, 2015 01:37 PM, by Scott Sumner) I'm seeing lots of comments to the effect that the 2013 austerity was not a big deal, and or the dreaded "fiscal cliff" never happened. OK, let's see some numbers. After all, if my critics just know that I am... (0 COMMENTS)
January 28, 2015, 8:04 am, 1411383
(January 28, 2015 07:15 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Alexis Tsipras and Syriza have won the Greek elections on a platform that entails, roughly speaking, 12 billion euros of additional public spending. The program (see here) is certainly questionable on many, many points, but it is still a big... (0 COMMENTS)
January 28, 2015, 12:04 am, 1411175
(January 28, 2015 12:05 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Voltaire never actually said, "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." But Voltaire would probably embrace this line - just like legions of other smart, well-meaning people. Interpreted poetically,... (1 COMMENTS)
January 27, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1410851
(January 27, 2015 03:32 PM, by David Henderson) Against Collectivism In the last year I have made our sister legal blog, Library of Law and Liberty, part of my newsfeed. I read most of their posts and learn from many of them. Today, blogger and George Mason University... (0 COMMENTS)
January 27, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1410773
(January 27, 2015 10:44 AM, by Scott Sumner) Back in 2000, Robin Hanson wrote a paper entitled "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?", which offered a way forward for economics in the 21st century. Unfortunately his ideas were ignored (and even ridiculed) and today we... (1 COMMENTS)
January 27, 2015, 12:04 am, 1410392
(January 27, 2015 12:32 AM, by Bryan Caplan) When you're a normal member of your society, the appeal of collectivism is easy to understand. Most people believe what you believe and enjoy what you enjoy. So wouldn't it be great if society as a whole continuously celebrated your... (0 COMMENTS)
January 26, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1410322
(January 26, 2015 07:52 PM, by David Henderson) A lesson I learned early in life On Facebook yesterday, an economist friend wrote that, in criticizing work by Thomas Piketty, he was claiming that Piketty is arrogant. He asked me (and others) if I thought that it was a... (1 COMMENTS)
January 26, 2015, 12:04 am, 1409645
(January 26, 2015 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) From Stephen Kotkin's new Stalin:Peasant expectations of a total land redistribution were intense, and the wartime tsarist government had helped spur them, confiscating land from ethnic Germans living in imperial Russia, which was supposed to be redistributed to valiant Russia... (0 COMMENTS)
January 25, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1409544
(January 25, 2015 11:15 AM, by Scott Sumner) Not surprisingly, there has been lots of criticism of my claim that the Keynesian test of 2013 failed. Let me respond to some of the points: 1. I was accused of cherry picking dates, as I compared growth in the... (0 COMMENTS)