Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


July 4, 2015, 10:04 pm, 1501445
(July 4, 2015 10:28 PM, by David Henderson) It's actually an upside of property rights. When explaining why various subsidy programs, tariffs, import quotas, and domestic restrictions on entry into various industries and occupations exist, public choice economists lean heavily on the concentrated benefits/dispersed costs paradigm. The idea... (1 ...


July 3, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1501267
(July 3, 2015 02:22 PM, by Scott Sumner) The answer is probably yes (and the scare quotes head off complaints that big impersonal governments don't actually have human feelings.) The administration has clearly been upset that the Eurozone isn't doing more to help Greece. They complain that a... (3 ...


July 3, 2015, 2:04 am, 1500985
(July 3, 2015 12:05 AM, by David Henderson) About two weeks ago, I challenged the following brief statement by Arnold Kling: We can also find this normative analysis among libertarians. Blaming terrorism on blowback for foreign intervention. Arnold was claiming that many libertarians are finding government intervention in... (0 ...


July 2, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1500907
(July 2, 2015 06:54 PM, by David Henderson) HINT: The textbook is The Economic Way of Thinking by Heyne, Boettke, and Prychitko. In an excellent post today, Greg Mankiw writes about an unnamed competitor's textbook: I happened to be flipping through another introductory economics textbook. (Yes, some people... (0 ...


July 2, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1500851
(July 2, 2015 02:04 PM, by Scott Sumner) I often see Fed officials claiming that the fall in unemployment means that they need to raise interest rates. Sometimes this is based on "Phillips Curve" thinking---the (false) idea that inflation is caused by a booming economy. In fact, the... (1 ...


July 2, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1500691
(July 2, 2015 01:45 PM, by David Henderson) On Tuesday, Lisa Farbstein, an employee of the Transportation Security Administration, tweeted a photo of a bag containing $75,000 in cash and said: If you had $75,000, is this how you'd transport it? Just asking. TSA @ #RIC spotted this... (1 ...


July 1, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1500316
(July 1, 2015 09:12 PM, by David Henderson) And remembering another failed gotcha in the past--and what I learned from it. This morning I read an article about the Greek crisis by UC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen, who has been following the crisis. In it, he writes: The... (0 ...


July 1, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1500037
(July 1, 2015 10:14 AM, by Scott Sumner) I first got into blogging in 2009 out of frustration over Fed policy. The US obviously had a huge demand shortfall, and the Fed wasn't doing enough to address the problem. Indeed I believe the Fed caused the huge demand... (6 ...


July 1, 2015, 12:04 am, 1499701
(June 30, 2015 10:12 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) We're showered with information and comments on the Greek crisis, and rightly so. The Greek Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has called for a referendum on the terms offered by creditors to Greece. Then night talks between Mr Juncker and Mr... (0 COMMENTS)


June 30, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1499519
(June 30, 2015 05:48 PM, by David Henderson) While surfing the web this morning, I came across a mention, by Cato Institute economist Dan Ikenson, of a White House conference call on the Export-Import Bank. I thought, what the heck, the call is during my lunch break; I'll... (0 COMMENTS)