Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

August 28, 2014, 12:04 am, 1325659
(August 28, 2014 12:14 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Read this neat NYT write-up of new research by Nancy Segal and co-authors.  Segal, famous for her work on twins, got an idea when she encountered the oeuvre of Francois Brunelle, "a photographer in Montreal who takes pictures of pairs... (0 COMMENTS)

August 27, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1325417
(August 27, 2014 03:32 PM, by David Henderson) In an otherwise excellent reporting piece in the New Republic, Senior Editor Noam Scheiber gives his view about why the governor's race in Wisconsin is so important. To recap, Governor Scott Walker is running for reelection and he's the one... (0 COMMENTS)

August 27, 2014, 12:04 pm, 1325364
(August 27, 2014 11:45 AM, by Art Carden) I recently read Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee's The Second Machine Age, and I will have more to say on it later. This story caught my attention in light of their emphasis on developing skills that are complements to technology:... (0 COMMENTS)

August 27, 2014, 2:04 am, 1325108
(August 27, 2014 12:03 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I just learned that the great H.L. Mencken's Prejudices contains an eloquent plea for appeasement.  From Mencken's "Martyrs": Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 [I]t seems to me sheer vanity for any man to hold his religious views too firmly, or to submit... (0 COMMENTS)

August 26, 2014, 6:04 pm, 1324966
(August 26, 2014 04:30 PM, by Scott Sumner) Vaidas Urba sent me an interesting piece from the Financial Times: For macro investors, the end of summer is usually signalled by the Kansas City Fed's annual conference at Jackson Hole. On occasions, former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke used this... (1 COMMENTS)

August 26, 2014, 8:04 am, 1324534
(August 26, 2014 07:01 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) I'm currently reading a truly interesting book, which some of EconLog's readers may be already familiar with: "The Intellectuals and the Masses. Pride and Prejudice among the Literary Intelligentsia 1880-1939" by John Carey. Carey argues, in his own words, "that... (0 COMMENTS)

August 26, 2014, 12:04 am, 1324400
(August 26, 2014 12:07 AM, by Bryan Caplan) No one needs a political philosophy to tell them how to treat people they personally know.  Once human beings forge personal bonds, they understand what to expect from each other.  The main point of political philosophy is to tell people... (0 COMMENTS)

August 25, 2014, 2:04 pm, 1324169
(August 25, 2014 02:45 PM, by David Henderson) The title of this blog post is the same as the title of one of my chapters in The Joy of Freedom: An Economist's Odyssey. In that chapter, I show how private ownership of resources leads people to take better... (0 COMMENTS)

August 24, 2014, 10:04 pm, 1323790
(August 25, 2014 12:22 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The veil of ignorance is arguably 20th-century political philosophy's most successful new meme.  On one level, it's easy to see the appeal.  Political philosophy seems morally deadlocked.  The veil of ignorance provides a meta-norm to break this deadlock: We should... (1 COMMENTS)

August 24, 2014, 4:04 pm, 1323753
(August 24, 2014 03:43 PM, by David Henderson) EF [Econ Focus}: Let's start with a unifying theme of your work: Your support of a gold standard. Several great neoclassical monetary theorists -- Marshall, Walras, Wicksell, Fisher, and Keynes -- argued that a rules-based fiat money could outperform a... (0 COMMENTS)