Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

May 4, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1633008
(May 4, 2016 03:18 PM, by David Henderson) Co-blogger Scott Sumner has written an excellent post this morning pointing out that the Keynesian model per se is not a big government model. He is right, for the reasons he gives. When the late Ben Rogge came to give... (1 ...

May 4, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632964
(May 4, 2016 10:05 AM, by Scott Sumner) [This is a sort of follow-up to my most recent Econlog post.] Before getting into this post, let me remind you of previous pointless debates, such as whether "Islam" is "really" a this or that sort of religion. I hope... (5 ...

May 3, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1632615
(May 3, 2016 04:10 PM, by David Henderson) I was going through my pile of unread Wall Street Journals over the weekend and found this news story: Scott Patterson, "End of an Era: England Closes Its Last Deep Coal Mine," December 11, 2015. Here's one key paragraph: The... (2 ...

May 3, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632521
(May 3, 2016 10:20 AM, by Scott Sumner) If you rely on bloggers like Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong, you'll end up with a very crude caricature of Robert Lucas's views on macro. The following was from a 2003 Lucas paper (sent to me by Marcus Nunes), which... (1 ...

May 3, 2016, 12:04 am, 1632332
(May 3, 2016 12:32 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Clemens, Montenegro, and Pritchett continue to expand the frontiers of human knowledge about migration.  Their latest working paper, "Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers," mostly measures the total wage effect of globally relocating identical workers.  But it closes by... (0 ...

May 2, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1632245
(May 2, 2016 05:30 PM, by Emily Skarbek) Yesterday Ilya Somin reminded readers of the Washington Post of his ongoing support for changing May 1st from a celebration of communists, socialists, and labor unions - to a holiday that commemorates the millions who have died because of communist... (1 ...

May 2, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1632165
(May 2, 2016 02:30 PM, by David Henderson) But the standard rendition of the B&B [Bootleggers and Baptists] story leaves out something that bootleggers and Baptists need to achieve their goals: emotion. One of the common emotions is anger, and the group whose anger is most important is... (0 ...

May 2, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1632119
(May 2, 2016 10:29 AM, by Scott Sumner) Back on March 7, 2011, Japan was hit by the worst national disaster to strike a developed country in modern times. Last week, Japan was hit by a human made disaster with a comparable effect on the economy (albeit obviously... (2 ...

May 2, 2016, 12:04 am, 1631943
(May 2, 2016 12:00 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Donald Trump has wildly exceeded electoral expectations at every stage of the election.  But betting markets still say he has but a 20% chance of winning the presidency.  Isn't Trump's record of success after success strong evidence that he's far... (0 ...

May 1, 2016, 10:04 am, 1631793
(May 1, 2016 11:03 AM, by David Henderson) In my post on the late Lester Thurow on April 15, I promised to post more from his book The Zero-Sum Society. Here are some further excerpts. Thurow as Ludwig von Mises Proposition VII: Regulation Leads to Regulation Since individual... (0 ...