Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

October 24, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1686205
(October 24, 2016 04:01 PM, by David Henderson) At this writing, the odds that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump for the U.S. presidency are very high. If your concern is trade between Canada and the United States, Canada dodged a bullet. Donald Trump is hostile to trade,... (0 COMMENTS)

October 24, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1686165
(October 24, 2016 11:06 AM, by Scott Sumner) This article in the Wall Street Journal left me scratching my head: The Fed, Not the Market, Is Stifling Growth That's the title, and I eagerly looked forward to an explanation, perhaps a criticism of the Fed rate increase last... (3 COMMENTS)

October 24, 2016, 12:04 am, 1685998
(October 24, 2016 12:08 AM, by Bryan Caplan) The latest reply from Mike Huemer on the ethical treatment of animals, this time with a cool graph.Bryan Caplan posted this further comment on animal welfare arguments on his blog. I didn't have time to address this earlier (partly because... (1 COMMENTS)

October 23, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1685939
(October 23, 2016 11:10 AM, by Scott Sumner) Here's an abstract from a paper by Erich Pinzón-Fuchs: This paper discusses a longstanding debate between two empirical approaches to macroeconomics: the econometrics program represented by Lawrence R. Klein, and the statistical economics program represented by Milton Friedman. I argue... (0 COMMENTS)

October 22, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1685843
(October 22, 2016 03:05 PM, by David Henderson) Paul Krugman, in a post today titled "Debt, Diversion, Distraction," argues, as his title implies, that we get diverted and distracted from more important issues if we worry about the coming high deficits and debt. His reasoning is faulty. First,... (1 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1685760
(October 21, 2016 05:20 PM, by David Henderson) In 2008, U.S. economist Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Krugman, one of the best-known economists in the world, is familiar to the public mainly through his regular column in the New York Times and for his... (0 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1685723
(October 21, 2016 02:51 PM, by Scott Sumner) Long time readers know that I am a huge fan of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, mostly for pragmatic reasons. (As with all social science theories, I do not believe it is literally true---just approximately true.) Now it appears that the... (1 COMMENTS)

October 21, 2016, 2:04 am, 1685536
(October 21, 2016 12:44 AM, by Bryan Caplan) In our debate, Robin bemusedly observed that I'm one of those odd people who wouldn't step into a Star Trek transporter. My actual view is more moderate: Before I'd use the transporter, I'd like to know how it works. Does... (2 COMMENTS)

October 20, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1685438
(October 20, 2016 07:13 PM, by David Henderson) I've been catching up on Wall Street Journal issues that piled up over the summer. One particularly good unsigned editorial (the Journal calls these "Review and Outlook") was the July 19 (July 20 print edition) editorial titled "What Has Congress... (1 COMMENTS)

October 20, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1685349
(October 20, 2016 01:20 PM, by Scott Sumner) Most economists view the Fed as a sort of firefighter, an institution that pushes back against "shocks" that mysteriously arise in the private sector. Bob Hetzel and Josh Hendrickson have a different view. Here's Josh: The predominant difference between this... (0 COMMENTS)