May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
Click on the chart for a larger version.
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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”
September 29, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1679697
(September 29, 2016 05:17 PM, by Scott Sumner) Polls show that 58% of Americans favor the legalization of marijuana. Even Texans support it. But an initiative to legalize pot in (very liberal) Massachusetts may fail. One reason is anti-legalization editorials like the following, in the highly influential Boston... (0 COMMENTS)
September 29, 2016, 4:04 pm, 1679658
(September 29, 2016 02:03 PM, by Amy Willis) In a campaign season here in the United States that seems more like a shouting match than politics, this week's EconTalk episode raises an interesting question. According to guest John Cochrane, a.k.a. The Grumpy Economist, the main issue that... (0 COMMENTS)
September 29, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1679561
(September 29, 2016 12:16 PM, by David Henderson) In a very pessimistic essay about America's future, my former Hoover colleague Angelo Codevilla writes: What goes by the name "constitutional law" has been eclipsing the U.S. Constitution for a long time. But when the 1964 Civil Rights Act substituted... (0 COMMENTS)
September 28, 2016, 6:04 pm, 1679373
(September 28, 2016 06:42 PM, by David Henderson) Charlie Schultze, Brookings Institution economist and former economic adviser to President Jimmy Carter has died at age 91. Charlie was old-school in the best sense of that term. From what I could tell at a distance, he believed in using... (0 COMMENTS)
September 27, 2016, 2:04 pm, 1678966
(September 27, 2016 02:17 PM, by David Henderson) Although Donald Trump is a very close second. And, I agree with Paul Krugman but he left something out. I tried to watch last night's "debate" between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. I really did. Unfortunately, I lasted only about... (2 COMMENTS)
September 27, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1678914
(September 27, 2016 10:27 AM, by Scott Sumner) Tyler Cowen linked to a paper by Peter Navarro, which discusses Trump's economic plan. To put it simply, it's a complete mess. Here are just a few examples: Under WTO rules, any foreign company that manufactures domestically and exports goods... (0 COMMENTS)
September 27, 2016, 12:04 am, 1678740
(September 27, 2016 12:04 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I hate politics. Part of the reason, to be honest, is that I'm a libertarian, and libertarian views have almost no influence in the world of politics. Libertarians don't just lose every election; policy-makers normally summarily reject our position. Libertarians... (0 COMMENTS)
September 26, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1678571
(September 26, 2016 10:45 AM, by Scott Sumner) Here's Ben Bernanke on the recent moves by the Bank of Japan: The most surprising, and interesting, part of the announcement was the decision to target the ten-year JGB yield. As I noted in a previous piece on targeting longer-term... (2 COMMENTS)
September 26, 2016, 12:04 am, 1678395
(September 26, 2016 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Contracts often require signatories to submit to binding arbitration. If a dispute arises, the parties don't go to court; they go to a private arbitrator. This arbitrator, in turn, makes a definitive ruling neither party can refuse. The whole point... (0 COMMENTS)
September 25, 2016, 12:04 pm, 1678333
(September 25, 2016 10:24 AM, by Scott Sumner) I recently listened to a podcast where David Beckworth interviewed Cardiff Garcia, of FT Alphaville. I agreed with most of the things Garcia had to say, including his observations on the recent growth slowdown. He discussed the way that top... (0 COMMENTS)