Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

October 8, 2015, 12:04 pm, 1555256
(October 8, 2015 10:26 AM, by Scott Sumner) Giles Wilkes directed me to an interesting Financial Times article on the strong dollar: In its April forecast for the global economy, IMF statistics suggested that global gross domestic product in nominal US dollar terms would hit $74.5tn this year,... (0 ...

October 7, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1554668
(October 7, 2015 03:22 PM, by David Henderson) One of the concerns I have had about substantially expanding immigration to the United States, Canada, and other countries is that a large number of immigrants, not understanding the important role of economic freedom in raising our standards of living,... (1 ...

October 7, 2015, 10:04 am, 1554506
(October 7, 2015 08:42 AM, by Scott Sumner) Your debutante just knows what you need But I know what you want -- Bob Dylan Over at MoneyIllusion I did a post---partly tongue in cheek---pointing out that if Milton Friedman were alive today he might be forced to change... (0 ...

October 7, 2015, 2:04 am, 1554280
(October 7, 2015 12:09 AM, by Bryan Caplan) I'm speaking in Urbana, Illinois on open borders this Thursday.  Details here.... (0 COMMENTS)

October 6, 2015, 4:04 pm, 1554081
(October 6, 2015 02:08 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) The Portuguese elections may result in a gridlocked government. The center-right coalition won - but did not secure a working majority. The incumbents gained 37% of the votes, the Socialists 32%. The Left bloc reached 10% and the Communists, who... (1 ...

October 6, 2015, 4:04 am, 1553682
(October 6, 2015 02:40 AM, by David Henderson) Yesterday, economist Mark Thoma wrote a piece on Donald Trump's claim that NAFTA was a disaster. It's titled "Is Donald Trump right to call NAFTA a 'disaster'?" I thought Thoma would say it wasn't a disaster because, however imperfect NAFTA... (0 ...

October 6, 2015, 12:04 am, 1553627
(October 6, 2015 12:26 AM, by Bryan Caplan) Questions non-economists ask when I tell them I'm homeschooling my sons:1. What makes you think you're qualified to teach them?2. Who are you to decide what your kids should study?3. What about socialization?4. How come you're not teaching [insert pet... (1 ...

October 5, 2015, 8:04 pm, 1553589
(October 5, 2015 07:11 PM, by David Henderson) Phooey The other Feature Article on Econlib today is "Phools and Their Money," Arnold Kling's review of Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation & Deception by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller. A highlight, after Arnold gives their... (0 ...

October 5, 2015, 6:04 pm, 1553529
(October 5, 2015 05:10 PM, by Scott Sumner) I've made this point before, but it's worth repeating, given all the recent talk about the Fed relying on the Phillips Curve. The Phillips Curve model only works when the business cycle is driven by demand shocks. When we are... (0 ...

October 5, 2015, 2:04 pm, 1553383
(October 5, 2015 02:31 PM, by David Henderson) Many economists who currently support large minimum wage hikes claim that the best research now shows that such an increase would not cause significant drops in employment. However, their conclusion relies on a dubious reading of the literature. Dozens of... (1 ...