Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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EconLog (Arnold Kling)

"The Library of Economics and Liberty”

February 24, 2018, 9:04 pm, 1825107
(February 24, 2018 09:34 PM, by Scott Sumner) David Beckworth has an excellent post discussing the Fed's confused relationship with the Phillips Curve. Recall that the Fed has the Keynesian interpretation of the Phillips Curve---which basically says that rising inflation is caused by an overheating economy. Or more... (0 COMMENTS)

February 24, 2018, 10:35 am, 1825043
(February 24, 2018 10:07 AM, by Contributing Guest) by Pierre Lemieux Philosophers have been debating moral values for two and a half millennia, and counting... I would argue that, at least when moral philosophy becomes political philosophy, consequences matter. According to FBI statistics, 39% of all murders (counting... (0 COMMENTS)

February 23, 2018, 4:05 pm, 1824875
(February 23, 2018 03:45 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) Very few people have used the seemingly sensible argument that there is little use in arguing against public debt when borrowing is so cheap. "El vulgo admira mas lo confuso que lo complejo." My rough translation: the people admire... (0 COMMENTS)

February 23, 2018, 1:24 pm, 1824769
(February 23, 2018 01:49 PM, by Scott Sumner) The answer is clearly no, because they are not being asked to adopt 100% reserve banking. However there is an upcoming referendum for creating a system of 100% reserve backed demand deposits in Swiss banks. I read the literature in... (0 COMMENTS)

February 23, 2018, 8:06 am, 1824502
(February 23, 2018 07:27 AM, by Contributing Guest) by Pierre Lemieux Statements invoking "the people" are generally no more than political demagoguery from those who claim to represent this magical and rousing entity. I don't know to what extent Poles helped the Nazis carry out the Holocaust, but... (0 COMMENTS)

February 22, 2018, 1:44 pm, 1824052
(February 22, 2018 01:32 PM, by Bryan Caplan) While promoting my new book, I've repeatedly argued that foreign language requirements in U.S. schools are absurd and should be abolished.  For two distinct reasons.Reason #1: Americans almost never use their knowledge of foreign languages (unless they speak it in... (0 COMMENTS)

February 22, 2018, 1:04 pm, 1824022
(February 22, 2018 12:57 PM, by Scott Sumner) This tweet caught my attention: Jeff Bezos possesses $121.3 billion dollars. There are about 550,000 homeless people in America. If Jeff Bezos gave every homeless person in America $100,000, he would still have $66.3 Billion Dollars! Let that sink in...... (0 COMMENTS)

February 21, 2018, 10:35 pm, 1823699
(February 21, 2018 11:59 PM, by David Henderson) I rarely find a balanced view of Trump. I gave one about a month ago. I've now found another. Here's Richard Brookhiser on what William F. Buckley, Jr. thought of Trump: Buckley wrote about Trump the politician once, in an... (0 COMMENTS)

February 21, 2018, 4:35 pm, 1823594
(February 21, 2018 04:16 PM, by Scott Sumner) I am seeing a disturbing rise in "free lunch" thinking. One place this increasingly shows up is in the case of "deficits". People seem to have trouble grasping that deficit spending implies future austerity. Let's start with an electric company.... (0 COMMENTS)

February 21, 2018, 2:35 pm, 1823477
(February 21, 2018 02:06 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Way back in The Undercover Economist, Tim Harford taught us the wonder of "keyhole solutions" for social ills:Keyhole surgery techniques allow surgeons to operate without making large incisions, minimizing the risk of complications and side effects. Economists often advocate a... (0 COMMENTS)