Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


April 23, 2017, 8:04 am, 1740186
(April 23, 2017 07:02 AM, by Alberto Mingardi) Any book is the child of its own times, rather obviously. This means that sometimes parts of even great books do not necessarily age well. Examples the author uses to make his case may appear rather obvious to the contemporary... (0 COMMENTS)


April 22, 2017, 8:04 am, 1740082
(April 22, 2017 09:52 AM, by David Henderson) On a United flight from San Fran to Washington Dulles yesterday, I found the flight attendants particularly professional and courteous. When I went to the back to stretch my legs, I did what I often do: asked a flight attendant... (0 COMMENTS)


April 21, 2017, 10:04 am, 1739835
(April 21, 2017 10:26 AM, by Scott Sumner) The Financial Times reports that the Trump administration is considering steel tariffs: The US has set the stage for a global showdown over steel, launching a national security investigation that could lead to sweeping tariffs on steel imports in what... (0 COMMENTS)


April 20, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1739583
(April 20, 2017 03:27 PM, by Alberto Mingardi) The late Kenneth Minogue was a forceful advocate of universities being and remaining peculiar institutions. Their peculiarity should include independence and pluralism for universities to become the instrument of ideological homogeneity, or of political power generally speaking, meant to become... (0 COMMENTS)


April 20, 2017, 2:04 am, 1739342
(April 20, 2017 02:45 AM, by David Henderson) Fox News Channel's decision to fire Bill O'Reilly caused me to reread a piece I wrote about Fox back in 2004. Were I to grade Fox, now, independent of O'Reilly, I would give them 1.5 cheers. An excerpt: Back to... (0 COMMENTS)


April 19, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1739284
(April 19, 2017 08:59 PM, by David Henderson) As I promised, here are some more highlights from Friedrich Hayek's The Constitution of Liberty. The Role of Accidents: Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are... (0 COMMENTS)


April 19, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1739205
(April 19, 2017 01:21 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Three followups on my last post:1. Most of the brutal policy advocacy I've heard comes from consumers, not producers, of intelligence research.2. Why didn't I name names or link links?  Because the brutal policy advocacy is almost entirely off-the-record.  3.... (3 COMMENTS)


April 19, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1739120
(April 19, 2017 12:00 PM, by Scott Sumner) Bruce Sacerdote has a very interesting new NBER working paper looking at growth in American consumption, income and wages. His study was motivated by the apparent disconnect between reports of stagnant real income and what seems to be rapid improvements... (0 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1738839
(April 18, 2017 03:38 PM, by David Henderson) As mentioned in my previous post, I had forgotten how good Hayek's Chapter 2 of The Constitution of Liberty is. A large part of his case for freedom is based on ignorance and uncertainty. He makes the case well, but,... (0 COMMENTS)


April 18, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1738791
(April 18, 2017 01:26 PM, by Bryan Caplan) I'm an IQ realist, all the way.  IQ tests aren't perfect, but they're an excellent proxy for what ordinary language calls "intelligence."  A massive body of research confirms that IQ predicts not just educational success, but career success.  Contrary to... (1 COMMENTS)