Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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"The Library of Economics and Liberty”


March 24, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731511
(March 24, 2017 01:46 PM, by David Henderson) UC Berkeley economist Brad DeLong has written one of the best short pieces on the gains from international trade. His post is titled "Are There Benefits from Free Trade?: DeLong FAQ." He writes: Well, typically and roughly, the average import... (1 COMMENTS)


March 23, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1731318
(March 23, 2017 06:22 PM, by David Henderson) Here's the audio from my interview yesterday. The interview was prompted by this blog post.... (0 COMMENTS)


March 23, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1731274
(March 23, 2017 02:02 PM, by Scott Sumner) Robert Frost once said: A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own side in a quarrel. This seems very clever to me---I wonder what other people think. 1. He may not be using the term "liberal" to... (2 COMMENTS)


March 23, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1731231
(March 23, 2017 02:04 PM, by Bryan Caplan) My first face-to-face encounter with political correctness came in 1989.  All undergrads in my dorm at UC Berkeley were strongly urged to attend the all-important DARE meeting.  Not DARE as in "Drug Abuse Resistance Education" but DARE as in "Diversity... (1 COMMENTS)


March 23, 2017, 12:04 pm, 1731189
(March 23, 2017 09:44 AM, by Amy Willis) EconTalk host Russ Roberts has made no secret of his misgivings about high-level statistical analysis. So it's no surprise that his skepticism is brought to bear in his interview this week with Columbia University's Andrew Gelman. However, Roberts magnanimously... (0 COMMENTS)


March 22, 2017, 6:04 pm, 1730932
(March 22, 2017 06:31 PM, by David Henderson) My review of Tyler Cowen's latest book, The Complacent Class, is now out in the pages of Regulation. It's titled "Tyler Cowen: Semi-Persuasive Futurist." This excerpt gives a flavor of what I liked and disliked: Cowen nails the causes and... (1 COMMENTS)


March 22, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1730891
(March 22, 2017 02:20 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Here's my debate with Christopher Wellman.  Since the audience was admonished to vote on the literal resolution prior to voting, I'm now slightly less confident in my "metaphorical voting" theory of my Intelligence Squared debate outcome.  Either way, enjoy.... (0 COMMENTS)


March 21, 2017, 4:04 pm, 1730557
(March 21, 2017 03:23 PM, by Scott Sumner) I did a recent post criticizing Bernanke's defense of paying interest on reserves. This policy was introduced in October 2008, and even the Fed viewed the policy as contractionary in intent. Indeed Susan Woodward and Robert Hall called the Fed's... (1 COMMENTS)


March 21, 2017, 2:04 pm, 1730516
(March 21, 2017 01:30 PM, by Bryan Caplan) Until recently, I only knew Howard Hughes' World War I saga Hell's Angels (1930) second-hand, from Martin Scorsese's Hughes biopic, The Aviator.  I was amazed when I finally watched Hughes' classic.  The special effects are stunning even by modern standards. ... (0 COMMENTS)


March 20, 2017, 8:04 pm, 1730293
(March 20, 2017 09:51 PM, by David Henderson) I've held back on commenting in a big-picture sense on the Republicans' plan for repealing and replacing Obamacare. I've found comments by Megan McArdle, Peter Suderman, co-blogger Scott Sumner, and Steven Landsburg, among others, useful. They've tended to focus on... (0 COMMENTS)